I am always a day late and a buck short on the posts because I am relegated to be the Saturday morning cartoon of the Razzball variety.  No worries, I mean, who doesn’t love 80’s cartoons and can’t list 10 shows that would drastically alter children’s universes today?  One word… Snorks.  So with everyone else doing the second-half rankings, I felt it was my duty to give the closer rankings based solely on the second games remaining.  The elite will still be the elite, the mediocre are still mediocre, and the middling teams will still be middling. I don’t care what algorithm Jimmy Bill came up with to have expected win totals and blah blah.  Expected win totals are an indicator of save expectations. because the percent of saves converted in wins by teams has been pretty stagnant at 52%, give or take a few sheckles each way.  So looking at the games remaining, some teams have less games to play then others, and some have more so the expected totals for some teams will be different then what you would expect them to be.  So as a wise person once said to me in throws of fantasy passion, lets have at it.  Cheers!

1. Kenley Jansen

2. David Robertson

3. Zach Britton

4. Jonathan Papelbon

5. Jeurys Familia

6. Cody Allen

7. Mark Melancon

8. Aroldis Chapman

  • These are the good-type guys.  All on elite teams with decent enough starting pitching and no threat to their closing jobs.
  • Chapman, if he gets traded, will be the closer of that team, barring a trade to the Dodgers.

9. Sam Dyson

10. Wade Davis

11. A.J. Ramos

12. Francisco Rodriguez

13. Steve Cishek

14. Will Harris

15. Seung-hwan Oh

16. Andrew Miller

17. Santiago Casilla

  • I would fully invest in this group if I was looking for a saves trade to augment my roster.
  • Davis should be back shortly, and he will be the pitcher he was and is.
  • Oh, and Cishek have great odds at win expectancy the rest of the way.  A trade by either team kills their value of course, but I can see them being near the top of the saves leaders from here on out.
  • Miller gets the gig if/when Chapman gets traded.  Making him the best non-closer to be a future closer in this list.

18. Hector Rondon

19. Craig Kimbrel

20. Alex Colome

21. Roberto Osuna

22. Ryan Madson

23. Huston Street

24. Arodys Vizcaino

25. Jeanmar Gomez

26. Jeremy Jeffress

  • Rondon is way down in cumulative save totals and I think the Cubs improve that situation via trade.
  • The Red Sox will get Kimbrel back eventually, and he will do his best to get you 10-15 saves the rest of the year.
  • Osuna and the Blue Jays are a complete conundrum and their save situations are lower then they should be because they score runs.  They also have played 91 games, a few more then others.
  • This group is littered with potential, now, closers to be traded and not be…

27. Koji Uehara

28. Carlos Estevez

29. Kelvin Herrera

30. Tyler Clippard

31. Brandon Maurer

32. Tony Cingrani

33. Dellin Betances

34. Ryan Dull

35. Daniel Hudson

36. Brandon Kintzler

37. Cam Bedrosian

38. Mauricio Cabrera

39. Tyler Thornburg

40. Fernando Rodney

  • Fill-in closers for now, maybe quantity guys for non-contenders.
  • Betances is here because in case the Yankees go full sell.
  • Bedrosian, Thornburg, and Cabrera are my guys to look at if speculating the saves trade game.
 
  1. Fister Furbush says:
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    Dude, I kinda wanna call you out on bull shit for not making Familia #1. 32 for 32 in saves. What else do you want? Are you bias with the white sox and the Dodgers or something? please explain this to me so I can cry myself asleep for dropping Wil Myers rather than doing so because you named Familia #5 instead of #1….

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Fister Furbush: Haha, its second half rankings but 1-5 has about zero difference besides them being associated as number 2,3,4 or 5. I love Familia, I just think the guys ahead of him have more of a quantity value in saves thats all

    • Crapshoot Kershaw says:
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      @Fister Furbush: could be the win expectancy for NYM is low, that would explain quite a lot, and with all those SP injuries currently, and a pretty ugly offense, it’s very believable. so much so, i’ve turned myself into thinking i’d rather have allen/melancon and at least 3 of the next group ahead of him.

  2. Tigres says:
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    Hey Smokey, good stuff thanks. Any concerns the Rangers add a closer and Dyson goes back to setup?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Tigres: always a concern with contenders, especially now with Diekman on the shelf with his beer mug incident

  3. Brett says:
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    Smokey

    Great article any chance for a holds rankings?

    For holds can you rank gregorson, bush, Giles.

    Thanks

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Brett: I wasn’t planning on it but next week will feature holds guys so if you need any advice let me know. Gregerson and Giles steal a little value from each other and with Tex bullpen looking worn out and injured (Diekman) Bush to me for the short term looks a better option. All three are very close though

  4. DancinHomer says:
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    Vinca into expected to hit the DL. Do you like Johnson or Cabrera better for saves?

    Cheers

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @DancinHomer: Johnson for now, Cabrera in two weeks if injury lingers for Viz

  5. Boy Wonder says:
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    14 team H2H redraft mixed league. I have Casilla, Jeffress and Oh as my closers

    Would you cut any of these guys for Brandon Maurer?

    Solarte, Baez, Jeffress, Oh, McCarthy

    Thanks!

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Boy Wonder: McCarthy is more a streamer option to me though it being 14 teams makes the pool a little thinner. If McCarthy is your 5th or worse pitcher I would look that direction

      • Boy Wonder says:
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        @Smokey:

        Yea, I agree. It’s just tough cutting McCarthy. The next best pitcher on waivers is RA Dickey, who is probably better than McCarthy. But I’m also down to $26 (moves) out of $100 for the season.

        I think I’m gonna hold or drop McCarthy tomorrow judging by how he pitches today @ Arizona

        Here’s the rest of my team. What you think? I was in last place for like 2 months and now in 7th place and only 7 games behind 1st place.

        C Martin
        1B Goldschmidt
        2B Solarte
        3B Seager
        SS Lindor
        OF Ozuna
        OF Springer
        OF Duvall
        UTL Khris Davis
        Bench Baez

        Casilla
        Jeffress
        Oh

        Salazar
        Archer
        Moore
        Fulmer
        Jon Gray
        Danny Duffy
        McCarthy
        DL Alex Cobb

  6. Boy Wonder says:
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    Also, I cut Jason Kipnis to platoon Solarte and Baez…

    Am I going to regret this? or will playing the matchups out value Kipnis’ production?

    Thanks Smokey!

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Boy Wonder: well making and taking chances is what climbs the standings, Holding McCarthy till after his start is probably a good idea

  7. Big league choo says:
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    Who’s my drop for darvish coming back….qs league h2h

    Snell, manaea, kang…..
    My mi are villar, reyes, merrifield, machado, kang

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Big league choo: Merrifield does nothing for me if he isn’t stealing bases. Only has 2 rbi/runs in last 8 games also. Though I dont think that leaves you with a 2b

      • Big league choo says:
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        Leaning towards losing kang…I have a bunch of ss and with a possible suspension looming. @Smokey: leaning towards losing kang….have a bunch of ss and with a suspension looming.

  8. Ante GALIC says:
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    Smokey!

    Love your intel as always!

    Need help in the BP, am 10th in saves in my RCL (5×5 roto). This is the BP.

    AMiller, WHarris, AReed, MCabrera, with Boxberger on the DL.

    SP is:

    Shoemaker, Fullmer Duffy, Bumgarner and Lester.

    The lineup is:

    C Martin
    1B Joseph
    2B Kipnis
    3B Donaldson
    SS Nunez
    2B/SS Espinosa
    1B/3B Beltre
    OF McCutchen
    OF Sano
    OF Bradley
    OF Duvall
    OF Naquin
    U Vargas
    Bench – RDavis, BMiller, DFowler
    DL – JBour

    Couple of questions…

    1. Put in a trade to get Britton for Duvall. Do you think it’s a fair trade? Desperately need saves.

    2. Do you think Boxberger has any value when he gets back? Does he assume the closer role?

    Super competitive league, all Grey followers, so, of course, none of the guys on your 27-40 list are available (let alone the top 26) except Daniel Hudson. Would you drop anything for DHudson?

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Ante GALIC: 1. great trade, you have Fowler and Rajai to fill in
      2. Yes and he is so close to being back to see if he does have value.
      no on drop for Hudson just yet. another week definitely worthy the speculative add ahead of deadline

      • Smokey

        Smokey says:
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        @Smokey: was kinda vague on Box, he won’t get closer role back immediately

        • Crapshoot Kershaw says:
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          @Smokey: i’d think if he keeps that last year BB rate he’ll never get it back, unless maybe if they trade colome or something of that nature.

  9. jackie treehorn says:
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    Clippard or Johnson?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @jackie treehorn: Clippard, though both could get traded

  10. Ciwa says:
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    I have Davis on my DL and Casilla as replacement. Who will be a better option when davis return counting only the number of SV?
    And,will Miller be better of them if Chapman will be traded?
    Thanks

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Ciwa: Davis all around

  11. Sport says:
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    Thanks Smokey for this! Very helpful.

    I am trying to make a run in my 15 team yahoo roto keeper league. I’m setting second overall and sixth in saves. I lost Kimbrel so I just picked up K Rod and now have someone offering me Osuna and Uehara for next year’s sixth round pick. We keep 2 hitters and 2 pitchers so that’s a second rounder (75-90 value). How many saves you think I get with K Rod, Uehara/Kimbrel, Osuna?

    Thanks!

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Sport: seems kinda pricey for closers. Ride it out Kimbrel will be back

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Sport: K rod gets you 15-18, Iimbrel when back will get you 12 and Osuna about 12-15

  12. ryan says:
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    Hey Smokey would you please help me set my rotation for the coming week? I can only start five:

    Carrasco @ KC
    Bumgarner @ NYY
    Lester vs. NYM
    Hill vs TOR, TB
    Gray @ Atl, vs. Atl
    Tanaka vs. BOS, vs. SF
    Duffy vs. Tex
    Archer @ Col

    I think I like the top five, but I’m conflicted sitting Tanaka for a two-start week when I need QS and IP.

    Thanks!

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @ryan: Carrasco, Lester Gray Hill and Bumgarner

  13. epo says:
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    Hey Smokey,
    In desperate need of a closer. Right now I have Rondon and Madison. I’ve been trying to acquire guys but teams are not willing to give up their closers. I was just offered Brandon Maurer for a 9th round pick next year. What are your thoughts? do you think he settles down in the closer role and holds the job for the year? Or should I go all in on trying to acquiring Oh for the last place team?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @epo: I would take it I think he stays there for the year returns will be limited but he should be decent enough to warrant a 9th rounder

  14. Boy Wonder says:
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    14 team H2H redraft:

    my Danny Duffy and Michael Fulmer for his Aroldis Chapman

    My other closers are Santiago Casilla, Jeremy Jeffress, Seung Hwan Oh.

    Which side?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Boy Wonder: are you set on SP?

  15. Ben says:
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    Is Huston Street done?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Ben: The Angels are going to be sellers, how much they sell remains to be seen. He isn’t a guy I would be confident in going to aq new team and closing for which kind of limits his trade value besides previous experience

      • Crapshoot Kershaw says:
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        @Smokey: i’d find it hard to believe he’d close anywhere he went. i don’t know his contract sit, but that could make him near impossible to get value for considering how awful he’s been for LAA.

  16. Dan Caperton says:
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    With Aroldis Chapman going to the Cubs, how far up this list does Andrew Miller move?

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