Earlier in the preseason, I delved into the holds tiers for fantasy bullpens. It exists right here in the Fantasy Relief Pitchers for Holds. That was more a broad brushstroke of fantasy bullpen goodness that goes on here at Razznation. Now that we are thumbs deep in draft season and the players being more prominent in roles are starting to show their purpose we can get a better grip on who to won and who to covet for the ugly step sister of saves the hold stat. In more cases than not, following a “drafting for holds model” holds true, but holds are such a fluid stat… more fluid than the closer role. So drafting the elite guy every year looks like a great idea, but name the guy who lead the league in holds multiple years in a row or, hell, twice in their career? It’s a short list, whose names are not that awesome or even around anymore. So for drafting for holds, whether it be in a straight holds league or a saves+holds league having the edge up on bullpenery is key. The strategies for each of those leagues is basically the same as the elite holds category earners and they should be drafted after the last “donkeycorn” closer to come off the board. If you draft an elite closer, always cuff your closer with the top holds candidate on that team. Next, do what I just said twice and grab your second closer’s backup/holds guy. That will give you two closers, their back-ups for the “just in case” moments and holds. Then your last pick for your bullpen will be an independent guy that has a K/9 rate over 9. That is my finite strategy for drafting holds in any league. It gives you five guys that you can bank on every day in a “set it and forget it” type situation. Don’t fall in love with your options, as like I said, bullpen fluidness is blah and you can find a hot hand on an off day. So now that strategy is out of the way, let’s look at the more finite tiers of holds!Please, blog, may I have some more?
Please see our player page for Daniel Hudson to see projections for today, the next 7 days and rest of season as well as stats and gamelogs designed with the fantasy baseball player in mind.
The inter-webs may something different, but I am here to learn you that it is going to be a committee instead of what the searched answer may be. It’s not looking fantastic for Trevor Rosenthal as he was pulled from the game on Wednesday with an injury and then sent home for further testing. So that leaves a “collage” of relievers chirping to get a shot and maybe a re-emergence of Seung-Hwan Oh. My guess is that it becomes a complete match-up based issue for their skipper Mike Matheny. (Name that I wanna hone in on here is Tyler Lyons though.) This, after all, is the bullpen report and he does, like the aforementioned names, pitch from the bullpen. Lyons, over his last 14 appearances, which coincidentally is after the last earned run he allowed, has pitched to the tune of a 0.00 ERA, 18 K’s (good for a 14 K/9), and only has allowed 2 hits and 3 BB’s, good for 5 baserunners against 44 batters faced. If you don’t have a calculator watch handy, that is a .032 batting average against. So in laymen’s terms, he has been awesome. It is the holds post for the week, so he had 5 of those to boot. Hot teams, breed hot bullpens. It is a fact. Chasing holds, find a team that is over .600 in win percentage over the last 15 games and roster any guy that is in the pen that sees leverage situations. Returns will come. Advice and morale of the story given, now onto some other factoids of deliciousness for the week in bullpen/holds news. Cheers!Please, blog, may I have some more?
The trade deadline usually makes a real hash out of bullpens, and this year was no different. Closers become just ordinary relievers. Ordinary relievers become closers on teams punting. Even further down, the holds through the obtuse guys now become a usable commodity. Fantasy baseball with hold leagues, catch the spirit! So like I was just saying, we have seen 5-6 teams rip apart their pecking order for hold-dom, and in some cases muddle up the closer order by trade, attrition, or subtraction. This is a good thing, makes decisions easier. Aim for guys on teams that are still getting you save opportunities. If you can’t find the stat, always fall back on the standings to guide your waiver wire hand. Or even more finite, look at that teams W/L record over the last 10 games. It is no coincidence that the top three teams in save opportunities since the All-Star break have winning records (Dodgers, Mariners, and Blue Jays). Also, if you haven’t been streaming Holds yet this year, there is no better time than the present. The list of holds leaders over the last 15 games is littered with names that weren’t even in print by me for the whole year. So don’t be afraid to roster the unknown rather than a commodity because with the season basically over in six weeks (three if you have playoffs), every one counts and every H2H win counts. Cheers!Please, blog, may I have some more?
This is the best time of the year, next to when Shark Week is on TV. All the movement in real baseball sends a ripple throughout the fantasy universe and in most position player cases, the player is owned to the moon or already a contributor. Not so much in the realm of baseball’s forgotten warriors: the setup men. As teams scramble for bullpen help, it creates an everlasting (not really forever) waterfall effect that resonates to the new and old team. Take for example the Yankees/White Sox trade it has created job questions for five separate relievers: Betances, Robertson, Kahnle, Clippard and Swarzak. Now with all the hype surrounding trade rumors, it is best to identify the team who gets the bullpen help first, than the trading team second. Because the trading team usually is where the goodies are at. Anthony Swarzak looks to be the biggest beneficiary in the setup options, and yes, Clippard will be closing, but Swarzak will be there when Clippard gets dealt again whether it’s before or after the non-waiver trade deadline. So to summarize here, be speculative but not crazy. Pay attention to the reliever deals in place and realize that some pitchers get moved down a few pegs, but on the reflexive, some move up. Have at some juicy reliever tidbits, Cheers!.Please, blog, may I have some more?
The season to date leader in holds heads to the DL and one of the better bullpens in baseball is in a tailspin… not so fast! The Rockies have reliable arms that can cement games just as well as Adam Ottavino has done for the year. With the likes of wily veterans in Mike Dunn, Chris Rusin, and even a little smattering of Jake McGee, the sedimentary bunch is going to attempt to hold down the fort. The comforting thing is that the Rockies lead MLB in holds as a pen, least amount of blown saves and have the most games pitching with a lead with 99 total. The scary thing with the shoulder injury is that Ottavino is a stash, or a dash, and replace with new military holds parts made from recycled relievers. Wait a week, see if the 10-day DL stint is a pain in the tuther end, and I can see if you need the space in Holds leagues, the move make sense. I would most likely grab Dunn, Rusin, and McGee in that order, as the setup game in front of the Dutch Master is going to be pieced together differently than what we saw so far. No need to panic though, there are tons of saves in the 6-8 innings to go around. Speaking of which, let’s see what is going down in the neighborhood of hold-dom…Please, blog, may I have some more?
What I particularly like about relievers is versatility. The situation in San Diego is the one in particular I want to discuss. We were all lured into the Carter Capps preseason love, and I was on the wagon driving the horses as well, but his injury and the results that we expected aren’t coming as fast as we hoped. He isn’t bowling over anyone in the minors, sporting a 6-plus ERA, and the obnoxious K-rate hasn’t materialized. Now onto the major league roster which isn’t lighting any fires. They are second from the bottom in bullpen ERA, have only 12 holds on the year, and now their closer has hit the skids. He being Brandon Maurer. Enter who I think should, could be the next man up while we wait (forever) for Capps. Brad Hand offers that former starter turned good. I may just call him the Vigilante of holds and possibly saves very soon. He has the K-rate, the BAA and the moxy to do the job… it is just a matter of if SD is ready to pull the trigger on something because Maurer looks cooked. Regardless of his situation moving forward or your league perimeters, Hand is worthy for a spot because of speculation and the K’s that he will produce. This is the bullpen report for this week, so let’s see what’s happening in the setup game and the hold chase…Please, blog, may I have some more?
The biggest question I get regarding the Hold stat is: “How long should I hold onto a stud holds reliever if he isn’t getting the precious stat?” Well, the stat is fluctuation between the sublime and the superfluous. It is usually as explainable as binary calculus. Take, for example, the story of the San Francisco Giants bullpen. They have all the right pieces there to be a successful bullpen. A stud closer and an excellent mix of RH and LH set-up men. Now look closer at the stats. Hunter Strickland is by all intents and purposes the 8th inning guy. He has 12 appearances, 11 of which have come in the 8th inning or later in ball games. He checks every other box for stats, low ERA, K/9 right about where you want it, but the inevitable stat faux pas is he has zero holds. On a team that only has 9 holds collectively, what is going wrong? He isn’t doing anything wrong, he isn’t vexed by a succubus or anything bad. hell I bet he helps old ladies cross the street and then steals their groceries. The simple answer is that the hold stat is an ever flowing team driven ideal. Doesn’t mean I hate it, one bit. i love the secondary save. It just comes out of the blue sometimes and people who sometime deserve to be the beneficiary aren’t that’s all. Hunter will finish the year with his share, but right now in holds leagues he is almost unownable. So look elsewhere for good match-ups, good form in pitching, and the ever important stat with relievers is when did they pitch last. That is the best determinant in acquiring a waiver wire darling. If he pitched yesterday, odds are he won’t today. Be smart as picking reliever for holds is a dumb game, don’t over-think it. Here are some other deets, in the game of set-up…Please, blog, may I have some more?
Even being 1/10th of the way through the season, it is never too early to see some trends forming. The trends I am learning you about are the bullpen usage rates. Not every team follows an A to B to C type formulas, and it would be nice, but usage rates in certain situations, even 15 games into the season, peak their heads out for fantasy usefulness. The ancillary stats that no one really notices, and that I use all year, are runners inherited and appearances with the lead. All key factors for what a reliever is and what they are at sustaining. The inherited runners stat is a ruiner, not only for themselves but for the pitchers they are replacing. Basically a sad trombone in the case of reliever sad trombones. The appearances with the lead factor is what we all eat our Holds and gravy with. It basically says that they are pitching with a lead, granted, holds are scored the same as a save. So all that less than four runs runner on deck shenanigans that people made up for it to qualify. So welcome to the first Holds/bullpens post of the year as we embark on a road far less traveled then it should. Holds matter, regardless of color.Please, blog, may I have some more?
I think the biggest question I always get when I’m out for dinner trying to inconspicuously eat is: Who should I cuff and when should I start drafting handcuffs for the inevitable closerpocalypse? My advice is always: As soon as I am done eating, I will tell you. I then proceed to give them the Irish goodbye and smile as I gleefully think that I got the best of them. But in all seriousness, the biggest question is: Do I cuff myself or do I cuff someone else’s closer? Me personally, I am a “cuff someone else’s” kinda guy. This way, it gives you better odds to have another closer. Where as if you cuff yourself, you are only replacing what you already drafted to expect. So in theory, look for the best cuff options that you currently don’t own and steal them from someone else. Leaving them short and for you, the possible plus one. So with this theory in mind, I have made a list of the guys that I would want to draft first, second and so on. I have done closer lists with their back-ups, holds guys, and the pecking order and now you get the best handcuff options to draft and sit on. Enjoy!
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In what very well may be the first hostile takeover of the closer year, we turn our eyes to the land of Primanti’s and Yinzers. Yes my friends, I am talking about Pittsburgh. The incumbent closer there, Tony Watson, has had a rough spring training. One that usually I would brush aside and say “ehh ST stats mean bupkis” and he has the vet preference behind him to back him up. I usually believe that type of big brother back-up mentality, but not when they signed a free agent who was viewed by several other clubs as a closer, that player being Daniel Hudson. So before we get to Danny, let’s stay on Tony Watson for a bit. He is the 19th closer off the board in most scenarios, which by all intents and purposes puts him in the lower-middle. Last season he only took over the closer’s role after the trade of Melancon and notched himself 15 saves on the year. But they weren’t all comfy ones. Tony Watson is a phenomenal relief pitcher, notice, I said “relief pitcher”. In my mind, he is just not a closer. A closer by default last year though? Very much so. Now, you add the tumultuous spring that he is having; faced 24 batters, allowed eight hits, walked three and eight ER in four-and-a-third innings. good for a 16 plus ERA. Looking for a silver lining, okay, there are two! Zero home runs allowed and a K-rate above 12. Yah… for peripheral stats, Hudson has been basically himself this spring, high-K middle-3 ERA, and holding opponents to a .200 BAA, while everyone is hitting Teddy Ballgame against Watson. I am not completely panicking yet, because in reality I would have two higher ranked RP before Tony Watson comes off the board, but those looking to get a cheeky head-start on the SAGNOF craze, grab you some Daniel Hudson. So for the first invasion of the season, I am flying the Jolly Roger upside down for distress. Let’s see what else is going down for the end game of ballgames…
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