Disclaimer: This is as technical and as nerdy as it gets. Wait I thought this was Razzball not Fangraphs! Well there’s my only joke, so only read on if you’re into the hardcore sabermetrics or sabretooth tigers. Dammit, OK, that’s the last one…
The stat developed by Bill James, the “Gamescore”, was a way to evaluate a pitcher’s performance on any given game and is used more and more frequently to determine who pitched the best game (ala Shelby Miller’s 1-hitter vs. Matt Harvey’s). It is scored like this:
- Start with 50 points.
- Add one point for each out recorded, so three points for every complete inning pitched.
- Add two points for each inning completed after the fourth.
- Add one point for each strikeout.
- Subtract two points for each hit allowed.
- Subtract four points for each earned run allowed.
- Subtract two points for each unearned run allowed.
- Subtract one point for each walk.
The whole purpose of my Pitcher Profiles (that come out every Monday) is to analyze a pitcher’s performance beyond the stats to evaluate if they’re getting hit hard and getting lucky outs, or maybe getting unlucky with bloops and weak grounders. So I decided to make my own, yes slightly subjective stat, called Gamescore+. This way it analyzes a pitcher’s game in a numerical way, however it does require viewing and analysis of every out instead of just a crunching of raw numbers. Here’s how it is calculated:
- Start with 50 points
- Add 2*(out grade) for every out made in the field (this omits the bonus for additional innings after the 4th like the traditional stat and doesn’t blindly give points to every out). A double play doubles this figure to account for the two out.
- Add THREE points for each strikeout (strikeouts are a bigger factor in fantasy and tend to indicate a higher level of pitcher dominance. In a traditional game score, you get 1 point per strikeout, plus 1 for it being an out [and plus .33 if it’s past the fourth] so they are scored roughly evenly, however outs in the field give you less points in Gamescore+ especially if they are hard outs, so strikeouts are much more valued)
- Subtract 4*(hit grade) for each hit allowed.
- Subtract four points for each earned run allowed (omitting the subtraction for losing unearned runs)
- Subtract one point for each walk.
out grade – on a scale of .5 being a very weakly hit ball, either on the ground or a pop up to .1 being a rocket that should’ve been a hit except for a fantastic defensive play. Caught stealing, pickoffs, and batter interference or any other outs not in the field are not scored.
hit grade – on a scale of .5 being a very sharply hit ball, usually extra bases or very well struck to .1 being a bloop single, a lucky infield hit or any other hit that more often than not results in an out. Reaching on an error is not scored.
Even with a slightly subjective aspect to the stat, anybody could calculate a Gamescore+ with a fluctuation of about +/- 1 point. And while this stat does gear a tad closer to fantasy, I think it gives a much better numerical value to the dominance a pitcher had in a given game.
As hinted above, strikeouts weigh very heavily in a Gamescore+ calculation, but this is intended to be guided a little more towards fantasy and also towards a pitcher’s dominance. Mere outs are weighted less, but how you get your outs, is much more prominent, especially if you are striking guys out.
So looking back at Shelby Miller’s 1-hitter, here’s how I calculated his Gamescore+:
- 1. 50 points
- 2. Fowler popup (.5) so .5*2 = 1
- Rosario flyout (.3)*2 = .6
- Arenado groundout (.3)*2 = .6
- Rutledge groundout (.2)*2 = .4
- Young groundout (.5)*2 = 1
- Rosario flyout (.3)*2 = .6
- Helton flyout (.2)*2 = .4
- Arenado flyout (.2)*2 = .4
- Young groundout (.5)*2 = 1
- Gonzalez groundout (.5)*2 = 1
- Rosario flyout (.2)*2 = .4
- Helton foulout (.5)*2 = 1
- Arenado groundout (.5)*2 = 1
- Rutledge groundout (.5)*2 = 1
- TOTAL OUTS: 10.4
- 3. 13 Ks*3 = 39
- 4. Young bloop single .2 (he hit it a little better than the worst bloops) *4 = .8 which is subtracted.
- 5. -0
- 6. -0
Gamescore+ = 98.6 (vs. Gamescore of 98)
Here’s how Matt Harvey’s 1-hitter was scored, going back and watching the film:
- 1. 50 Points
- 2. De Aza flyout (.3)*2 = .6
- Keppinger lineout (.3)*2 = .6
- Dunn flyout (.2)*2 = .4
- Flowers groundout (.5)*2 = 1
- Santiago groundout (.5)*2 = 1
- Keppinger groundout (.2)*2 = .4
- Rios flyout (.3)*2 = .6
- Dunn groundout (.5)*2 = 1
- Ramirez groundout (.4)*2 = .8
- Wise flyout (.2)*2 = .4
- Keppinger groundout (.5)*2 = 1
- Gillaspie flyout (.4)*2 = .8
- Ramirez groundout (.5)*2 = 1
- Flowers flyout (.4)*2 = .8
- Wise flyout (.4)*2 = .8
- TOTAL OUTS: 11.2
- 3. 12 Ks*3 = 36
- 4. Rios infield single (.2)*4 = -.8
- 5. -0
- 6. -0
Gamescore+ = 96.4 (vs. Gamescore of 97)
So even though re-watching Harvey’s 1-hitter I thought Harvey looked stronger, Miller still had the better results. The difference of that 1 strikeout still remains the same.
These are obviously two of the more elite pitched games you’ll ever see. Also, they are extremely close to the actual Gamescore stats they received, something I didn’t intend and I think will fluctuate more with more standard games. So let’s look at another start broken down from this week:
Since I wrote this just before the Brewers game on Tuesday, let’s look at A.J. Burnett’s start:
- 1. 50 points
- 2. Lucroy Flyout (.4) = .8
- Shafer groundout (.4) = .8
- Aoki hard lineout (.1) = .2
- Gomez groundout (.3) = .6
- Ramirez flyout (.1) = .2
- Betancourt groundout (.5) = 1
- Lucroy flyout (.3) = .6
- Estrada sac bunt (.5) = 1
- Gomez groundout (.4) = .8
- Ramirez groundout (.5) = 1
- Betancourt groundout (.5) = 1
- Lucroy groundout (.5) = 1
- Lalli groundout (.3) = .6
- Estrada sac bunt (.5) = 1
- Segura flyout (.3) = .6
- TOTAL OUTS: 11.2
- 3. 6 Ks*3 = 18
- 4. Aoki double (.5) = 2
- Segura infield single (.2) = .8
- Gomez infield single (.2) = .8
- Segura broken bat single (.1) = .4
- Shafer double (.5) = 2
- Aoki double (.3) = 1.2
- Segura RBI single (.1) = .4
- TOTAL HITS: -7.6
- 5. 4*3 = -12
- 6. -0
Gamescore+ = 59.6 (vs. Gamescore of 55)
So this game was closer to what I was hoping for. Burnett gave up a lot of weak singles and I thought pitched well and better than his Gamescore would indicate.
All in all, the hope is to create a stat that A) is guided more towards fantasy (hence the heavy weight of strikeouts) and B) builds in how lucky or unlucky a pitcher actually got by weighing the strength of the hits against and outs against. Sure it’s a slightly subjective part of the stat, but for a sport with such a high level of dependence on stats, aren’t there some levels of subjectivity to the statisticians and umpires as well? Balls vs. strikes? Hits vs. errors? It will be interesting to start using these stats in my Pitcher Profiles – adding this numerical stat to the break downs as well.
