Bases haven’t been nearly full at all in Michael Fulmer‘s starts this past month!
After a rocky beginning to his Major League career, Fulmer has been absolutely on fire the past month, vaulting from “meh, another big prospect called up too early, schwatev” to “this guy is ROY!” As in, Roy Campanella! Wait, I don’t think he was a pitcher…
Featuring a huge fastball and an awesome beard, it’s getting tougher and tougher to not jump on board the Fulmer train on his incredible scoreless streak and 5 Ws in a row. I usually write the intro before breaking down the start, but I worked a little out-of-sequence today. Spoiler alert! I’m so on board. I’m trading in my “Mustache Rides – $0.25” shirt with Grey on it to “Beard Rides – $0.50” with Fulmer. So without any more ado or facial hair-play, here’s how Fulmer looked yesterday in a dominating start against the Yanks:
First Inning: Fulmer’s first pitch is an 95 MPH sinking fastball in there to Jacoby Ellsbury, 0-1. 93 MPH runs outside, change-up at 87 flutters outside, 95 stays high and outside, 3-1. But 95 in the top of the zone has Ellsbury fly it out routinely to center, one down. Brett Gardner takes a 95 MPH strike, then an 86 MPH change-up gets rolled to second for another easy out. 95 is outside to Carlos Beltran, 96 MPH heater is barely tipped foul, then an absolutely nasty 89 MPH slider gets a redonkulous whiff, 1-2.
Just like my GIFfing excitement, the Tigers announcers went nuts for that too! Then they were like, “what’s next? 96 MPH high fastball?” Nope! This:
Yeah, that’s some dirty back-to-back slidage right there! The K ends a quick first inning.
Second Inning: After an only 10 pitch first inning, Fulmer is outside to Starlin Castro with a fastball, then fastball again is a lazy fly to right, one down. Then 95 MPH high and on the hands to Chase Headley gets another easy fly to center, two down even quicker than the first. 95 outside to Didi Gregorius, then a nasty change-up with almost a two-seamer look at 87 MPH gets a strike looking, 1-1. Change again is pulled well foul, slider skips in the dirt 2-2, 96 MPH fastball with good sink barely gets tipped back foul, 86 MPH change hangs outside, fastball outside fouled off, fastball in the zone at 96 MPH fouled off again, long at bat. Then the payoff pitch is a 97 MPH way inside for a two-out walk. Up is Austin Romine who fouls off a fastball, then a hanging slider staying on the outside edge of the plate is lifted to right, but it hangs in the air for a pretty easy catch, inning over.
Third Inning: First pitch slider with nice movement high in the zone is called a ball to Aaron Hicks even though it looked good, fastball outside is slashed foul – Hicks barely late – then 95 MPH fastball again outside is slashed again down the third base line, but this one is fair for a double. Don’t really like the pitch selection there – Hicks made the slight adjustment after a hard foul on the same pitch the pitch before. First pitch change-up is in there to Rob Refsnyder, huge sinking fastball at 96 goes too low and inside, 96 again sinks too low, then a hanging change-up staying high in the zone is hit pretty hard to left, but Justin Upton nabs it on the run towards the foul line near the track for the first out. So back to the top and the first pitch 96 MPH fastball on Ellsbury’s hands ties him up for an infield pop up. Needed that! Nice biting inside slider is taken just inside to Brett Gardner, nice change-up that stayed low this time gets the low outside corner 1-1, change-up again gets the inside part of the zone 1-2, and this is a pretty sequence. And Fulmer goes change-up again, it wasn’t as pretty staying high in the zone, but Gardner still offers and swings through it to end the inning on Fulmer’s 2nd K.
Fourth Inning: The Tigers pick up a run of support and Fulmer drops in a slider to Carlos Beltran, 0-1. Fastball high and outside is cut on late and fouled off, big slider hops in the dirt low and in, change-up flutters outside, 96 MPH heat barely misses low and inside, then a high slider up and on the hands gets Beltran tied up for another swinging K. Sinking 95 MPH fastball is low to Starlin, change-up is in there, 97 MPH on the outside edge is barely hit foul – nice velo there – slider in the dirt at 89 has Castro barely able to hold his swing, then I think a hanging slider that didn’t do much high in the zone gets a rocket to third, but Nick Castellanos is there for the second out. 95 MPH is in there to Headley 0-1, then watch this AWESOME swing from Chase Headley on an 86 MPH change-up:
Wowzer. But then to add insult to injury, Fulmer tries an inside slider and it hits Headley on the foot. So that swing, then you get plunked. If you’re worried if that would phase Fulmer, he then throws an inside slider on the very next pitch to Gregorius. Confidence there! Then a fastball right down the middle at 95 is hit pretty hard to center, but hangs up long enough for Cameron Maybin to run down. Not quite where Fulmer wanted that one, but it worked out.
Fifth Inning: Tigers are now up 2-0, and Fulmer gets a high slider in the zone to Romine, 0-1. Slider again is outside, 94 MPH fastball fouled off, then a hanging slider staying on the outside edge of the plate is hit down the first base line and barely stays in play while hopping into the seats for a ground-rule double. Another leadoff double to work around. Hicks takes an outside change-up, change-up again drops in there, slider on the hands pulled foul, 95 MPH climbs the ladder high, hanging 86 MPH change-up right down the middle is murdered to right, but foul by about 15 seats in the second deck. Too close for comfort there. Change-up again – confidence off the hanging pitch – flutters outside, then slider on the hands is popped up, and it’s caught in foul ground by Jarrod Saltalamacchia for the first out. 96 MPH fastball is in the zone for strike one to Refsnyder, then a change-up is rocketed to third but Castellanos is there again for the second out. 95 MPH fastball is low and outside to Ellsbury, change-up flutters way low and outside, 96 MPH is well high and outside, then 94 is outside for a four pitch walk. Hmmmm, maybe the “unintentional” intentional walk? So runners on first and second with two down, and 96 MPH is outside and it brings Salty out for a chat. 96 MPH tailing fastball gets the call on the outside corner 1-1 – looked well outside to both me and the Tigers announcers – 96 MPH is inside, outside change-up is sliced foul, 97 MPH gets a defensive & late slap swing foul, inside slider gets an accidental held swing tip foul, hanging change-up is well high and outside, 96 on the hands fouled straight back, 97 again in a great spot low and inside is fouled off, then a nasty slider like one of those early GIFs is a great pitch, but Gardner lays off and it’s inside, and there actually is a… wait for it… BASES FULMER! Grinding inning here, and inside slider is fouled off Beltran’s foot 0-1, then a hanging slider on the outside edge gets skied a mile high, but it stays in Yankee Stadium for an out in front of the warning track to get Fulmer out of a long inning.
Sixth Inning: At 82 pitches, a fastball is grounded fairly hard up the middle by Castro, but Ian Kinsler is there for a nice 1-itch out to open the 6th. Change-up is in there to Headley, 84 MPH change flutters well outside, then 95 MPH fastball is flied lazily to left, another quick out. Slider bends inside to Gregorius, change-up gets a whiff, 95 MPH is in the zone, 95 climbs the zone too high, then a 96 MPH fastball gets Gregorius to ground out routinely to short to end the inning:
That would be Fulmer’s final pitch, but just great to see that velo staying high-90s through the whole start. The Tigers would end up winning the game for their rook.
Final Line: W 6.0 IP 91 Pitches (55 Strikes) 0 ER 2 Hits 3 Walks 3 K Gamescore: 68 Gamescore+: 65.2
Final Analysis: With yesterday’s W, it gives Fulmer 28.1 straight scoreless innings, the longest streak thus far in 2016. What an incredible run. Interesting that the Gamescore+ came out unfavorably compared to the Gamescore – I think a lot of that lies in the strikeouts. Only 3 this outing, but it wasn’t like the Yanks were hitting scorchers implying a “lucky” outing. Just interesting to note.
It’d be hard-pressed to talk about Fulmer’s arsenal and not immediately rave about the fastball. Consistently at 95ish MPH, he topped out at 97 and as you can see in that final GIF, hit 96 on the last out. Unlike what we saw in Aaron Sanchez’s Pitcher Profile, we didn’t see the big range in velocities with the heater, which is great to see for a 23-year-old rook. Off the heater, he features a pretty gnarly slider in the 88-89 MPH range. It’s got crisp bite with nice-and-tight late movement that almost reminds me more of Jake Arrieta‘s cutter more than a pure “slider”. Those back-to-back sliders in the GIFs above were some of the best on the day. Then there’s the big reason why Fulmer has found success lately – faith in the change-up. In his first 4 starts, he threw his change well under 10% of the time. But in his last 5 – over this ridiculous scoreless span – it’s been used close to 15% of the time and over 10% every start. Taking out the rest of his mix, I’d only call it about an average change-up. But he throws it from such an aggressive delivery just like the fastball that it works incredibly effectively with his repertoire.
Tough to not go ranking-crazy after a really solid outing like that! Fulmer’s got a true 3-pitch mix, and even though the change-up isn’t “Major League plus”, it still works for him with how his stuff comes together. I really liked seeing him throw the same pitch again after making a mistake (after almost giving up a two-run bomb to Hicks in the 5th on a change-up, threw change-up again the next pitch), and he maintained his velocity all 6 innings. I’d even consider pushing him into that top-30 range if I didn’t have some concerns about the innings. As Grey and I mentioned on last week’s Pod, it was a little odd he didn’t come up to the same fanfare as say Julio Urias or Jameson Taillon. His Minor League numbers before the promotion were fantastic and he was a big prospect. Fulmer is here to stay, hopefully you have your fantasy squads full of him!
Updated Top 100 SP
(rankings for ROS based on 12-team Roto, green for risers, red for fallers)
Dropped Out: Yordano Ventura, KC (F off, Yordano), Andrew Cashner, SD (DL), Tyler Duffey, MIN (ugh, that fell apart quick!), Ervin Santana, MIN (meh, I don’t think he ever got past 95)
- I debate doing a little shuffling up top with Chris Sale struggling a bit, but decided to keep it status quo. Obviously the 10 W are boosting value, but even with this rough patch in there, numbers look phenomenal.
- Yikes was I wrong on Johnny Cueto coming into this year…
- Yu Darvish gave us all a nice scare with an early exit due to his shoulder last start, but it appears he won’t miss any time. But now we get that awesome uneasy feeling for him ROS… I only moved him down a couple, but he’s a risky top-20er for sure.
- Got a lot of flack on Taijuan Walker staying in my top-20 last week! I was pretty confident he’d bounce back against a slumping Indians offense, and whatdya know?! 8 inning shutout with 11 K 0 BB and only 3 H. I’ve been reading/listening on where other people have him this week due to all the comments on him, and I don’t get why he’s lumped into that 30-50 glut of “meh” pitchers. Was doing awesome, had two bad starts – one @ TEX – and now is back on the horse.
- I never root for guys to get hurt, even if Gerrit Cole got into YET ANOTHER confrontation during a game. But now his triceratops are hurt and he’s gonna get an MRI – likely going to get Jurassic Parked on the DL.
- Mmmmmm, guess who is excited about a certain big Canadian looking AWESOME! You all know that I’ve been all about some maple syrup on my fantasy teams… Throwing consistent high-90s, getting Ks, limiting walks… I was able to add James Paxton on every single one of my fantasy teams this week.
- 6 innings of 1 run ball is solid, but otherwise the numbers weren’t exciting at all for Anthony DeSclafani with a horrible WHIP and only 2 K. But I watched some of the outing, and his slider was REDONKULOUS and he threw it 37% of the time. Seemed healthy and I think there is some K upside here.
- Ugh, I guess I am kinda buying into Marco Estrada being an anti-peripherals success story yet again this year, but it’s a very cautious move up. It’s just succchhhhhh a low BABIP and soooooo many walks.
- Jameson Taillon got the call and looked pretty good, but it was indeed a spot start and got sent back down. He’ll be up again soon, but I think Tyler Glasnow is still just as close – sure his walks aren’t as pretty as Taillon’s ridiculous 6 AAA walks, but Glasnow’s got the upside to me.
- Danny Duffy‘s run lately has been CRAZYPANTS! I don’t know how much I buy into yet in ROS terms, but pretty much must-own in leagues where you can stream.
- I guess he probably should’ve been ranked regardless last week, but I feel like Archie Bradley gets a nice “Itoldyaso!” award of the past week…
- How about that Zach Davies call from last week, deep leaguers?!
Are you guys getting your lineups full of Michael Fulmer? And what do you think of this week’s ranks? Shoot your thoughts below and happy pitching, Razzball Nation!
Shoemaker with a nice bump! You a believer in that splitter for ROS? How close is Brandon Finnegan to the top 100?
Great stuff as always!
@Chud: Yeah man, he’s looked good! Wow, I just noticed his velocity has been at a career best rate over the past 8 starts as well. Maybe some sort of mechanic thing I dunno… Wish I saw that earlier, mighta gone higher!
Mehhhhh never really been a Finnegan guy for this year. Low Ks and high BBs with some lucky factors, he’s prob 120ish-130ish
I think John Lackey plays for the Cubs.
@Big Mike: Huh weird, I guess I moved him up manually and brain farted his team. Something to do with farting certainly is apt for the Cardinals…
@JB Gilpin: Yeah, I noticed that while you were away. I was just hoping the Cards had him back!
@Big Mike: @VinWins: Ugh maybe I had that typo for a while… Eh, luckily there’s only one big fat John Lackey out there!
Hey JB,
I have been holding onto SMYLY and GAUSMAN all year for both their highs and lows. Smyly is especially worrisome. Having 2 guys in the AL east is dangerous. Would you recommend dropping one or both for any of
J.PAXTON
D.DUFFY
H.IWAKUMA
J.GRAY(only thing scarier than AL East)
J.NELSON
@JJ: Yes and Yes! For the first two there. Already have Paxton ahead of both, my concern with Duffy is how long he stays in the rotation/healthy in ROS terms, but in the short term I’d def nab him
@JB Gilpin:
Do you think that I should hold Smyly for that start against the mariners wed? Or just cut bait now.
@JJ: Hmmmm he’s throwing less cutters and curveballs and more 4-seam lately… Argh that’s so tough him vs. Duffy. 10 team league I’d do it. 12 team… I think I might hold off I think Smyly could get back on track.
@JB Gilpin:
K. Dropped Gausman for Paxton. Will hold off till after his next start.
Thanks
@JJ:
Hold off on Smyly i mean
@JJ: Cool sounds like a plan! I’ll be rooting for Smyly for sure his next outing
@JB Gilpin:
I could also drop Roark for Duffy. But he hasn’t really given me any reason to consider dropping him. And again, his division makes me tempted to just keep him.
@JJ: I personally would make that move, just for the upside for Ks in the short term. But agree, it’s not a clear cut decision with those juicy matchups Roark gets!
Also, no love for the Phils? Eickhoff at 95, Hellickson not in top 100?
@Big Mike: I dunno if Eikhoff is deserving of love… nice start last time out, but then over the previous 8 he really only had one really good start which was against the Braves. I also don’t think either will get Wins. I’m surprised no one has brought up Hellickson over the past month :) I just don’t think he’s any good – yes his change-up is rating really well right now, but he has a high WHIP, gives up homers, and again the wins issue
Walker gave up 4 ER and 8 baserunners in 5.2 vs TB and 3 runs with 7 baserunners in 5 IP @Balt before a nice start vs Oakland (1 ER, 5 baserunners in 7.1 IP). Then came the 2 bad starts. So, for that 5 game stretch he had a 6.26 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. That’s why I was down on him. Shouldn’t surprise you that a lot of us fantasy baseballers are quick to throw players under the bus. I didn’t drop him though, because JB still had him ranked highly!
@VinWins: Wooooo, I can forgive all your “fact-checking meanness” for that final sentence! Well, to be fair you can parse numbers several ways, if you take those 3 games you mention, 4.00 ERA 1.11 WHIP and 18 K in 18 innings. Which isn’t bad at all. not great, but not the chase him out of JB’s top-20 with pitchforks either :)
@JB Gilpin: Ok, I’m just more likely to look at those 3 games, and throw out the good one!
@VinWins: You are too much a pessimist! Haha
Shoemaker and Paxton both available. My staff is below. Any swaps I should make?
Archer
Matz
Walker
Fulmer
Roark
Duffy
@Rice: Yup! Roark out for Paxton ASAP. Man… Struggling with how to get Shoemaker, I think I would for Duffy, but short and medium term that’s really really close
@JB Gilpin: Roark out and Pax in!
I’m back and forth on Shoe and Duffy too. I actually dropped Shoe on Saturday morning for Duffy and then Shoe struck out 11 a couple hours after I made the move.
@Rice: Noice! Well the first part. Fiddlesticks! For the second part. Luckily Duffy was still good too. I think it’s a start by start basis for the short term. Shoe gets A’s, Duffy DET. Gimme Shoe!
@JB Gilpin: DAMN!!!!!
it’s a weekly league. My move won’t take place until next week!
With that said:
Walker has a tough week (and a bad road ERA); @TB / @ BOS
Would you start him or Duffy home vs. DET (ugh… damn you Shoe!)
@Rice: Oh damn! Well you could project out next week too and decide based on that.
@TB doesn’t scare me at all, I think I’d keep Walker in there for 2 starts
Guess who …lol.Fulmer looks legit but I missed out on him. I added Shoemaker, Paxton and Duffy this past week at the expense of Corbin, Kennedy and Chen. Im still intrigued by Gray(who’s pitched well in and out of Colorado), and DeSclafani who is also out there. I know you love Paxton, we’ve been on the same page there since last year, and despite a “medium” endorsement of DeSclafani above you ranked him very aggressively. He’s out there, should I be looking to add him iyo and if so at whose expense. Roster is as follows:
ESPN 12 team HTH 5×5 with OBP and QS daily moves and 4 keepers per season
C Posey
1B Cabrera
2B Daniel Murphy
3B Seager
SS A. Russell
OF Stanton
OF Springer
OF Polanco
UTIL OF Burns
UTIL OFL.Martin
Bench SS T.Anderson
DL Sano
SP Salazar
SP Gausman
RP Kimbrel
RP Melancon
P T. Walker
P Odorizzi
P C.Rodon
P Pomeranz
Bench SP Duffy
Bench SP Paxton
Bench Shoemaker
Bench RP Estevez
DL RP McGee
@We’re Out Of Room: You’re tellin me man! I missed Fulmer in EVERY SINGLE FRIGGIN LEAGUE! Ugh.
Yup agree DeSclafani got an aggressive rank. I know you’re desperate for saves, but I think Estevez can go for him unless saves looks to be absolutely neck and neck this wk
@JB Gilpin: I just knew you’d say Tim Anderson could go, because of my obsession with having a back up SS lol. He’s my only bench bat but closers are non-existent in this league, many teams have 4 ,almost all strive for 3, so with that being said, are you losing Tim or Estevez?
@We’re Out Of Room: Yeah good point, losing Timmy Tim for Desc!
@We’re Out Of Room: @JB Gilpin: I should say – i indeed would make that swap :)
@JB Gilpin: Thanks as alway…hey quick question, because I’ll likely lose Timmy for DeSclaf( hey I like that No caffeine for me only DeScalf, I smell a pitcher profile title in the making lol). But I digress, what are your thoughts on Reed and Bregman, I really wantr to stash them, but are they overhyped. I mean how good a SS prospect is Bregman(I know he’d play 3rd for Hou)…better than Arcia iyo?
@We’re Out Of Room: Hahaha you are onto my punny ways! I don’t think Bregman is, but he has less pro experience than Reed, who I think could be rocky. Hmmmm, ya know I might take Bregman at this point over Arcia, but close!
@JB Gilpin: Thanks, figured you’d know in comparison to Arcia. He’s someone I’m considering, but for now I’m going to try to be patient…which means I’ll look back and wish I added him lol. My league is just so tight on roster spots, makes it much more difficult to stash and not pay for it in weekly match ups.
@We’re Out Of Room: Hah, yeah in shallow leagues it’s just so so tough to give up a prolonged 0 and hope the right one is called up and performs first. So yeah, agree with your assessment there!
@JB Gilpin: Man my starting SP’s got lit up tonight…ughhh! Walker(whos hurt now), Odorizzi, and Pomeranz…stink, stank, stunk!
Anyway, I made a few moves, didnt exactly do what we discussed…I ended up adding Gray instead of Desclaf. I also dropped SS Timmy and OF Burns. Burns is the one Im concerned about, but I needed more pop from my lineup , so I added Choo. Burns hasnt done much in a month, infact Maybin has out performed him…sigh, yeah so I’m trying to convince myself it’s not that bad lol.
I know youre not as big on Gray as Descalf, so I might be in the wrong there too, guess we’ll see. How bad is it that I dumped Burns iyo? I still have Maybin and Leoynitis, and Polanco, so maybe I wont have to punt SB’s all together. And at least I let go of my fear of no back up at SS lol.
Current Roster now:
ESPN 12 team HTH 5×5 with OBP and QS daily moves and 4 keepers per season
C Posey
1B Cabrera
2B Daniel Murphy
3B Seager
SS A. Russell
OF Stanton
OF Springer
OF Polanco
UTIL OF Choo
UTIL OF L.Martin
Bench OF Maybin
DL Sano
SP Salazar
SP Shoemaker
RP Kimbrel
RP Melancon
P T. Walker
P Odorizzi
P C.Rodon
P Pomeranz
Bench SP Duffy
Bench SP Paxton
Bench SP J.Gray
Bench RP Estevez
DL RP McGee
Maybe the next name you should make is “We Need Another Thread”! Haha.
Odorizzi I have been pretty blah on. Walker injury suckssssss impacts a few of my teams. Gray vs. Desc isn’t too far off if you can filter Gray in and out of a few tough starts at home. I rank based on set-it-and-forget-it stats, I’m not ranking Gray for road starts plus maybe 30-405% of home starts, and if you played him like that, he’d have some nasty upside.
Meh yeah Burns is kinda whatever to me at this point. Glad you’re over your phobia of must-owning two SS! Nice! Haha
As someone who is also buying in on Paxton, I think you’ll be happy to learn that he was flipped with Iwakuma and will start on Thursday @ TB instead of Friday @ BOS. This was in order to split up the LHP’s in the rotation (Miley being the other).
Much better matchup then the Sox at Fenway. Plus he’ll face off against Snell on Thursday! So that should be a fun watch.
Props to Turd Ferguson over in Grey’s comments for turning us on to this news.
@knucks: Oh yea… fantastic effin artcle JB. I watched the entire Fulmer game, had some similar opinions, but this was quite informative. Mind writing one on each of my SP’s next week? HAH! Looking forward to tomorrow’s pod.
Also, I drafted Cueto, as he slid so far that I couldn’t help myself. Tried to use him as trade bait right after the draft and couldn’t get shizz back for him. I just found an email of a guy rejecting my Cueto for his Tyson Ross. THANK GOD!
@knucks: Appreciate that man! Hahahaha I’ll work on it! And I’m pumped for the pod too – spoiler alert! Ralph and some prospects talk with Grey and I think week.
Oh gawd, what a blessing in disguise for that offer getting declined!
@knucks: Wooooooooooo!!!! Turd Ferguson is about to be showered in …. well, yeah i should thank him
@JB Gilpin: Hahaha we should. But only for asking Grey the Q, i did the digging through Tweeter and found something about it back on the 9th from the M’s beat reporter. Shower me in Team Knucks pitcher profiles!?!
Rotation is Thor, Cueto, Fulmer, Paxton, Streamer
NM I’m in good shape!
@knucks: Hah yeah you’re doing well! Does this make you feel a little better tho?
https://razzball.com/thor-can-suck-my-hammer-and-the-top-100-starting-pitchers-week-6/
https://razzball.com/jbs-why-cant-i-quit-you-pitcher-james-paxton/
@JB Gilpin: I shouldn’t have made it sound as though I was oblivious to your previous work. I own Fulmer and Pax BECAUSE of this site! This comment is starting to sound like a DK commercial. Keep up the A+ work.
If the slow clap emoji were available, my comments would be much shorter.
Thanks as always JBG.
So weird seeing Thor with short(ish) hair btw.
@knucks: Oh I know, I just meant to give you an quick upper right there! Haha. Appprecuate it man!
+1 :) haha. Wait, he cut his hair?!
@JB Gilpin: HAH He better not cut his hair, not when he’s pitching like a top 5 SP! Never mess with success.
Was talking about the ‘suck my hammer’ PP from last year that you linked.
@knucks: Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh I got ya. I thought you meant he cut it recently, which indeed would have been amongst one of humanity’s worst decisions
Would you drop Garcia and pick up McCullers ?
@phil: Yup! More K upside and even tho McCullers hasn’t been “awesome”, Garcia has been pretty brutal lately
Is Tim Lincecum worth a pick up ?
@phil: 10 or 12 team – nah. I’d have to see a pretty long line of success to go there. Any deeper, then sure
sorry I made an error it’s not Mcullers I can pick up …it was McHugh. So back to the first question drop Garcia for McHugh?
@phil: Ah yeah, not too big on McHugh. Too many “Mc”s on the Astros, which kinda sounds racist if you read it out loud. Nah I’d hold Garcia
Hey JB!
Hoping the Triceratops injury to Cole isn’t as bad as it’s being advertised… however a consolation prize is I have Taillon sitting on my bench (unless Glasnow gets the call, then it’s a double-whammy, haha). What are your thoughts on Eflin? Worth taking a shot on, even though he’s on a team that won’t provide too many wins with their stellar -69 run differential?
I know I shouldn’t be rostering Ventura and I should let some other team deal with his suspension/ineffective pitching. With that being said, are you dropping him for Eflin, Corbin or Godley? (12tm, h2h, +QS and +SV/HD)
Lastly, if Cole gets DL’d, would you pick up one of those three, or just use the spot to stream or for bullpen depth?
Thanks!!
@HR to Izzo: Hey man! Hah yeah those triceratops injuries can get ya, news that his MRI came out clean and he’s only missing one start as of now came out post-submission.
Mehhhh, Eflin had SUCH a boring K rate in AA last year, yes better in AAA this year but I dunno… NL only prob. I’d take Corbin of those guys still.
I’d prob stream the spot unless Corbin had a good matchup, or any of those guys were facing the Padres haha
@JB Gilpin: That’s good to hear about Cole. My staff can’t take any more beatings for me to be competitive, haha.
So, what you’re saying is the sensible move here is to drop Ventura and pick up Corbin? I wish I could provide a good reason for why I’ve held him this long…
@HR to Izzo: Yup it’s how it goes with pitching sometime! Ugh yeah I think so, remember Ventura will be facing a suspension that will make him miss 1 or 2 starts pretty soon too
@HR to Izzo: Just a note on Corbin’s matchups… looks like next 3 will be tomorrow vs. LAD, then prob @TOR and @COL. So even if he looks ownable tomorrow night, keep that in mind.
@HR to Izzo: @knucks: Yeesh. Well Godley probably has similiar matchups, no way could I trust Eflin at this point in time, and Yordano as I mention could be suspended. Corbin is scary with those matchups, but just as scary as the field there!
10 team keeper league. Would you drop Tailon for Pax?
Scherzer
Hamels
Samardzija
Salazar
Hammels
Chapman
Osuna
Bench
Fulmer
Taillon
Shoemaker
@primetime: Yup! How many can you keep tho? If you keep basically your whole roster I might not, but likely Paxton either way
Frustration: I picked up Fulmer for his first start – rookie nookie and all that, but then dropped him like a streamer.
@Scott: Uggghhhhh! Yeah I can’t blame ya, I bet a lot of people did that…
Is Walker at Bos or Det this week? Start regardless? SON doesn’t like Walker (if at DET) – -$5.9
@Five-On-One: I thought @BOS, but not sure, if only the 1 start he’s pretty iffy – bench @BOS I’d play him vs. DET
@JB Gilpin: Quick follow-up – Walker is number 17 over-all for you. where is your ‘start every week’ cut-off?
@Five-On-One: I didn’t think I’d pick a nice round number, but I’d say probably 30. Keuchel is 31, and he’s def tough to start in rough matchups, even though he’s shown “some” signs of getting out of it
JB
Friedrich or Wisler ROS…Thanks in advance
@Ace of Spades: I’ll go Wisler. Not a huge fan of either tho
MRI negative for Cole… was the huge drop mostly because of injury concerns? Do you have him in your top 15-20 if he only misses one start? Just traded for him a few weeks ago!
@Scooter G: Yeah as mentioned in a comment above, all I knew at the time was MRI on triceps coming. Pretty scary. I still have concerns and he had fallen out of my top 20 I think last week anyway due to low K upside, maybe woulda only fallen to 30 or so
Dropped Pax, grabbed Snell. I hope he stays up ros
@Bye Felica: Noooooooooo, I do not approve this move!
Good stuff JB!
However, I feel like Greinke is a few spots too low. And I’m not sure how to interpret your Felix ranking.
Would you trade Archer and Nola for Bumgarner in a H2H points league?
Now answer that question based on the information. This is a keeper league and we can only keep 5. My other potential keepers are Goldschmidt, Strasburg, Gerrit Cole, Greinke and King Felix. Archer would be in the discussion if he starts pitching like Archer, but no way Nola is kept. Bumgarner is a no doubt keeper.
I’ve got no problem giving up Archer and Nola for Bumgarner. I see it as a no brainer. However, he wants Bautista in the deal. I asked for Blackmon back, but he said no. I am considering asking for Adam Jones. This league’s scoring system is pitcher heavy. Neither Bautista, Blackmon nor Jones would be a keeper on my team. While I am not out of playoff contention considering it’s just week 11, my team is sadly in second to last place. Although I am only 4 games out of 4th and we play two a week. I still have Wacha, Rodon, Duffy, Roark and Glasnow on my bench.
I actually acquired Archer on the cheap in a recent deal where I luckily sold very high on Velasquez shortly before his injury. I got Bautista in that deal too. I got a way with one in that deal.
Thoughts?
@malamoney: Yeah Greinke might be, I lowered him too low about a month ago, and his positive regression now has had him rising. Still worry about the park yielding some bad starts at some point.
Felix out 4 more weeks due to his calf. Took a tumble.
Oh nice deal moving Velasquez! Hmmm, yeah I would do it with Bautista if you got Jones, but it def makes it closer. I like the idea of consolidating into a keeper there in MadBum. I’d do that iteration of it!
Yo JB, got a question for ya. I’m struggling with whether to start Eovaldi and Tillman this week. Both have two starts… Not the best matchups. My other options ar Duffy and Rodon. Standard H2H cats, but we get points for Wins and QS. Using both of them, I’d have one more start than my opponent. Thanks man!
@Mickey Maloney: Yo! Sorry if I was late, I would take Tillman. Just more faith there in 2 starts. Any time!
Hey JB
Which side do you prefer on these trades in a vacuum? 10 team h2h 5×5 with obp
Cole and story for cutch and kuechel
S wright and o Herrera for duvall
O Herrera and s wright for T walker
Thanks!
@Wacha wacha: Cutch side by a bunch, ummmm I guess Herrera side but is kind blah, hmmmmm, I’ll kean consolidating into Walker but close. Any time!
I’m actually on the edge of my seat regarding Darvish seeing as he’s getting an MRI today!
@Hugman: Ugggghhhhhh! Yeah I wrote this all then heard today his start was getting scratched and he needs an MRI. Such a shame
@JB Gilpin: very pleased with the results actually. With him on the DL I’m able to scratch my move-making itch and add Urias without dropping anyone.
@Hugman: Hah well that’s a good point! Rather a 15 day DL than stay on the active roster and miss two starts…
Rate my staff: MBum, YDarvish, SMatz, JRoss, MFulmer, CRodon, DDuffy, JPaxton; CL: Chapman, Rosenthal, Harris. DL: Cobb
Oh yeah, 14 team yahoo 5×5 h2h.
DeScalfini is still on waivers, any changes?
@Greg: 14 teamer?! A+++++++++++!!!!!! Well, ok I’ll say A- actually bc if Darvish misses a ton of time, it’ll hurt. But it’s nasty.
I like DeSclafani a lot and no season he should be avail in 14ers, but nah, I think you own the right guys!
Hey JB!
Well,
I asked Ralph the same question and got a great answer and went with it, but I have a slight change in plans, the guy I’m playing switched up his roster, I’m guessing because I did. This is my staff this week.
SP-Carrasco-2
SP-Eickhoff 2
SP-Gio-2
Matz-1
Ray-1
Rodon-1
Wright-Boston-1
RP-Dyson-RP-Street
This is the staff I’m facing:
Odorizzi-2
Weaver-2
Archer-1
Cahtwood-1
Gausman-1
Kazmir-1
Peavy-1
Leake-1
Wainwright-1
Here’s the situation- He only has 1 RP Jeanmar Gomez. I am down 1 start to him with these lineups. Do I replace Dyson or Street with Mengden and have the same amount of starts and 1 closer? Or leave it as it is? I know it seems like you should get at least 1 save if u have 1 RP in but it’s not always the case. I also have Krod as a closer but Ralph said go Dyson and Street. I’m guessing because Krod is on the road all week?
Thanks! Lineups lock for the week at 6:00 pm Central. If you could let me know by 5:50ish that be awesome, if not it’s all good, I know it’s short notice.
PS-Do you love Corey Ray? Or should we have went Lewis? Groome? Who’s this clown we got in the 2nd rd when Shore from the Gators was sitting there for us? I am a total draft geek!
@Chris: Sorry if I missed ya before lineup lock! I think I’m in time! Ummmm Yeah I guess matchup based, I think I might Krod over Street. I dunno if I would roll the dice on Mengden. You still have a lot of starts and you are all but guaranteed 1 save to win that cat.
Hah you prob know more than I do! I just talked with Ralph on the Pod about our pick! I thought we were gonna take Puk at 5, but Ray seems like a really cool dude. Groome seems pretty high risk too, Kyle Lewis musta had some question marks falling to 11 like that…
Someone just offered me king Felix for fulmer. Do I do it ?
Thanks
@Brian: Nope! Hold Fulmer, Felix out another 4 weeks last I saw
Someone anyone plzzz help!!! are conforto and walker playing this week? LOL I’m desperate! Weekly change league starts in 15
@Chris: Sorry we missed ya! Podcast record time is right in this gap. I think Conforto does…
The fact that Joe Ross is 24th makes me want to vomit, that is absurd.
He’s a 3.4 ERA pitcher with a 20% K rate…..
What am I missing?!?
@Cousin Vinny: Keep vomiting! I’ve had him this high since my initial ranks, so I guess you have had a really bad case of scurvy or something. His ERA is 3.01, he pitches for the only good team in the division in a good park with awful defenses, and K rate is going up. I don’t get the reaction here
@JB Gilpin: Hey JB, doesn’t your argument in favor of Ross mean you should rank Tanner Roark higher? Even though he doesn’t have the K rate that Ross does, Roark has the added benefit of RP eligibility. I’ve been using him most weeks as an RP and he’s been really good. I’m surprised every week by how low you have him ranked.
@Cousin Vinny: @Mike: Ummm, I don’t necessarily think so. For 1, I’m not factoring RP at all. In ESPN standard, there is no delineation, and most roto leagues with innings caps, it doesn’t matter. If you’re in a weekly league, then yes he’d be higher, but as I preface with the ranks every week, they’re geared for roto. I think Roark and ross will end up with a similar K rate, but Ross with a much lower WHIP and slightly lower ERA, plus the concern that if Roark struggles they move him to long relief at the end of the season to call up Giolito
JB,
Look fwd to ur top 100 pitchers every Monday! Great work! I usually agree with most of ur ranks…and love how u go out on a limb for guys u love!
With that said, in a 12tm Redraft H2H league…i have Thor, Carrasco, Matz, Joe Ross, Nola, and stashing Taillon and Glasnow. Just scooped Paxton. With 75limit moves, and 25 already used, do i swap someone for CMart? A disgruntled owner dropped him two weeks ago and i’ve been cyclopsing him. I cld lose a stashed pitcher or one of Addison Russell or Starlin Castro
@The G: Thanks so much, appreciate it! Yeah I definitely try to go bold, and always will admit when wrong!
Nice staff! And yeah you def gotta add CMart! I’d prob lose Russell at this point, I would try and avoid owning two blah SS and Russell has been mehhhh-to-awful lately haha
@JB Gilpin: thanks brotha!
My hitting has been touch and go, so flexing two of the three from Russell/Castro/Odor has seemed a bit of a luxury lol.
A few weeks ago, i traded my Kluber/Conforto for Thor. Got tired of looking at SON for Kluber’s starts….
My bats are: Vogt, Rizzo, Odor, Castro, Beltre, Marte, Polanco, JUp, Piscotty, Joc, Duvall, Conforto(he was dropped…i swapped him out for JHey who was dropped three weeks ) Russell. Thoughts?
@The G: Any time! Well with Conforto tanking it and might be hurt, I think that was a solid deal! So you have Conforto or Heyward now? I think I would lean Heyward since he’s healthy of the two, but close!
JB….sup bruh
worried about Cole. smh
how long do u think he will b out?
10team h2h 6x5cats
thank u!
@740: Sup man?! Yeah I am too, news came out today tho that his MRI came up clean and might only miss one start. I still have some concern though, but you def gotta hold him
Sanchez above Estrada still?
The guy has had the best changeup in the majors for two years now, where is the love? ;)
@CursetheFantasyGods: Hah I know! Peripherals scream he shouldn’t be this good, and I watched this torture on my Brewers for a few years…. Flyball pitcher means lower BABIP, but flyball pitcher in TOR just still seems too crazy! And not like Sanchez has been some scrub, last start was bad, but he’s been solid!
Should I deal Matz and Trumbo for Fernandez…(if no, then can try for Kershaw)?
OF is Marte, Hayward, Gardner, Trumbo, Bradley Jr.
SP is Kluber, Salazar, Matz, Cueto, Tanaka, Rodon, McCullers, Descalafani, Nelson
@Chad: Love those two sell highs for JoFer! I def like that offer. Maybe try for Kershaw first bc ya never know! Then go for JoFer
JB,
12 team league daily moves 6×6 with holds and ops the extra categories. We can keep 5 players.
My staff: J-Fer, Cueto, Salazar, Nola, Matz, Joe ross, Taillon, Urias,Dyson, Harris, Colome, Rondon.
These are the keeper values for the back of my staff:
Nola $5 for only 2017
Taillon $5 for only 2017
Urias $5 for only 2017
Joe Ross $1 for 2017 and 2018
Matz $3 for 2017 and 2018
Would you move Urias for a top holds guy. Thinking Miller or Herrera.
Thanks
@Brett: Yeahhhh, I imagine a few hitters should crack your 5 keepers too, but yeah if holds is a need, I’m good moving Urias for a top option, I like Ross and Matz at those prices and 2-yr contracts better
Hiya JB!
Always look forward to your pitcher ranking articles! Question…drop Keuchel and pick up McCullers? Who has more upside ROS? In a 10 team H2H weekly points league. Also available off wire: Bauer, Karns, Rodon. Thanks much!
@Luke: Hey man! Nah I’d still go with Keuchel, I think he is safer AND has the upside – he was Cy Young last year! Haha. Rodon is close in the convo too, but I’d hold onto Keuchel
Still no love for Roark?
Wainwright, Chen, Karns, etc above him?
He has 7 starts of 1 ER or less this year. Guys gotta be a little more legit than 70 whatever no?
@Bogaerts Turner Overdrive: I agree. I don’t see a 50 point difference between Roark and Joe Ross.
@Curtchillin: Just answered that thought above: https://razzball.com/bases-fulmer-top-100-starting-pitchers-week-11/#comment-2570858
I’m worried about a transition of role if they call up Giolito, who Ralph on the Pod just said he thinks he’ll be up most of September. Although I do get Ross could be on an innings limit as well. BB haven’t been great for Roark, had an easy schedule – yes it should be easy most of the year – but I think there’s a warranted gap. 50 does seem drastic tho, might need to readdress Roark :)
10 team h2h obp limited season moves
Current rotation: Archer, Smyly, CMart, Fulmer, Sanchez, Stroman, Duffy, Snell, Hill (DL)
Drop any to add Paxton, Shoemaker, Ross, Rodon, J Gray
One minor caveat, I am a Rays fan, so I have confidence/soft spot in Smyly and Snell. I’m thinking I like Paxton the best in terms of upside but Ross is also intriguing.
Thanks!
@bossmanjunior333: Wow, Joe Ross is avail?!?!??!! Man tough to find drops tho, I get owning your Rays, but I would personally lose Smyly/Stroman/Snell and get Paxton/Shoe/Ross
Had a brain fart last week and opted to keep Trea Tuner as my NA stash and dropped Snell. Great timing….
Grabbing Fulmer makes me feel better though. Slow clap for me.
I need some SS insurance with Nunez playing way over his head and have faith Turner plays at some point despite Espinosa waking up a bit.
@moobs: Ugghhhh, yeah that’s a rough one. With Andriese looking serviceable, I was surprised they called up Snell myself. Slow clap indeed for you good sir!
What up JB
great work!
Would you give up Fowler and Snell for Harvey? I just don’t trust the guy. If he kept the Ks up through his struggles I would be a bit higher on him, but I think Snell could stay up and be pretty solid. No absurd K/9, but solid. IDK, thoughts? Odubel is on waivers to replace Fowler.
Its a 12er H2H with K/9 and BB to make it a 6×6
@Chad: Thanks man, thanks for reading! Wow, Odubel is avail?! I don’t think he’s drastically different than Fowler, minus the runs upside. I’d def make that deal and nab Odubel. Wow, more surprising Odubel is avail in BB league!
Hey JB,
What do you make of Rodon? He’s a plus prospect with middling peripherals. Think he remains in the 30s ROS?
Also, where do you see the Freak winding up in your rankings? He’s killing AAAA but has a ton of question marks.
Thanks.
@Steve: Ummm, I sure hope so! Ranked him inside my top 30 coming into the year! I still just really like his stuff. Nahhhh, not gonna believe in Timmy Tam for a while, probably won’t even make my top 100 this first week unless he goes nuts in his first start
@Steve: Chicagoan here, so I’ve followed Rodon fairly close since he was drafted.
And I honestly think that Rodon’s performance to date is about what should be expected rest of this season (High 3-low 4 ERA). His velocity increase last 3-4 starts (before his last one) was encouraging to see but you’re still talking about a guy who only threw ~30 innings in the minor leagues before getting to the majors—-and the jump from college to the MLB is quite a large one. Really, the fact that he has posted even a ~4.00 ERA in his first 35 MLB starts after essentially jumping straight from college to the MLB is quite impressive in his own right (and reason to remain optimistic about his future), he just needs a bit more time to refine his approach/overall game.
Upside remains, his control has improved from last year, and he is showing some promising signs regarding underlying #’s (a bit less hard contact, LD% down despite increase in BABIP, HR/FB probably a bit high etc), but ultimately I think those expecting a huge breakout this year were a little premature in those expectations.
Maybe he can put it all together sooner than expected, but I’m banking more on that happening in future years than this one.
@Steve: @Matt: My buy in was his utter dominance to end last year. Last 8 starts were 1.81 ERA with 49 Ks in 54.2 IP and a nice stride up in the BB rate. BB rate is down this year too, he’s just the victim of a .337 BABIP. Downside is not as many change-ups as I woulda hoped. Matt also mentioned the control, sorry glossed over that :)
I think there could still be a prolonged run like we saw the last 2 months of last year at some point…
You think Stroman can turn it around ? He finish last season soooo strong . His up-coming schedule is not the greatest , but he does pitch in the AL East (and might have a road start in Col as well ).
@JoeG414: I’m shaking in my space boots! I’m pretty worried, he’s really only as high as he is for the potential
would you trade Matz for Snell and Paxton
@matt: Probably not in a 10 or 12er, any deeper then sure, I kinda like the depth of Snell/Paxton
Hey JB! Good talk yesterday about Shoe vs. Duffy.
I got a trade offer today. My choice of Verlander, Quintana, or Stroman for Mazara.
I’m viewing Mazara as a keeper (keep 4… Mazara would cost me a last round) so I don’t want to deal him. Other probable/possible keepers are Bryce (round 8… duh), Starling (round 14… duh), Mazara (last round, probable), Ozuna (last round, maybe), Fulmer (last round, maybe).
I have a deep OF, 1B, and two solid 3B’s, so my question is; which pitcher target and for who?
OF: Bryce, S. Marte, Polanco, JD Martinez, Ozuna, J. Upton
3B: Fraco & Castellanos
1B: Votto, Belt, AJ Reed
@Rice: I should note.. my current staff:
Archer
Matz
Fulmer
Duffy
Walker
Paxton
@Rice: Yo! Yeah I’m not dealing Mazara for any of those pitchers. Mazara is still so friggin young, playing well in his first stint, plays in Texas… I see SP is kinda a need but I would need a young top-10, mayyyybe one or two of the top 15 0- with a good keeper price – to wanna move Mazuhzuh as Grey says it
@JB Gilpin: Totally agree on Mazuhzuh. Excited to keep him.
Who should I counter with? And which of those three SP should I chase? Or just hold.
I could see myself moving Belt or Franco for one of those three? Or should I be looking for better?
@Rice: I’m not huge on Stroman, yeah if Franco got either of the other 2 would be more than good with that. I think Belt too, I do kinda like Belt more than Franco at this point tho, but SP does fit a need
JB now that Darvish is officially on the DL. Does he still hold the #14 position?
@Jedimasters: Nahhhhh, I shoulda moved him down to begin with. I’m starting to feel like my low rank in the offseason might hold true haha. I’m pretty worried he’s going to get really kid gloved ROS
Added Fulmer as a flyer 4-5 starts ago after watching his filthiness while dominating the Rays in what was his first good start of the year. The K’s are worse than I was expected so far (since he’s been on my team), but considering that he’s yet to allow a single run in the time I’ve had him…yeah, I’m a fan.
@Matt: Ha yeah I would imagine so! Nice flyer paying off there!
So yeah, I took your advice and switched up my handle again, seems appropriate. So in regards to Odorizzi, you think he levels out? K’s were down early, finally back up, but he always has that one bad inning that does him in. I’m all out of moves until Sunday(after 1st pitch) but if DeSclaf doesnt get snagged would you dump Odorizzi for him? Otherwise Kennedy and Corbin are out there, just not sure if either represent much of an upgrade over Odorizzi ROS…thoughts?
@My Thread Count Is High: Hahahaha awesome! Well done. Yup I def like Desc more, mainly for NL purposes. I have him in a fre league for @ATL, it better go well! Agree on those other two, very meh
@JB Gilpin: Desc looked pretty blah huh… expected more against Atlantas bats. No real worries as I cant make a move until Sunday anyway. Trying to see whats available in trade for Stanton. Looking at my roster, what would you think my biggest needs are? I was talking to a guy that has the likes of Abreu, Bogarts(who he probably wont part with), Suarez, Pearce, Ross, L.Cain and Trea Turner. But I dont see anything there without Bogarts that would inspire me to sell him.
@My Thread Count Is High: Yeahhhhh. At least only hurt your WHIP really. I moved on in a few league already, he was at that fringy range as it was. Ummm, yeah speed could use a boost, losing Stanton would hurt your power though. bogaerts I think would be a good fit if it would work, obviously SS is a need!
i’m guessing that change up has made a LOT of improvement over preseason, as he was ranked way lower prospect-pitcher wise than a LOT of other guys who’ve done much worse than him so far, pretty sure this was the fulmer that had “likely bullpen guy” taped to his forehead, under the likes of urias/gio/snell/berrios/reyes and probably at least 5 others (maybe even manaea), but, other than snell’s extremely small sample he’s been better than all of those that have come up.
@Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey: Yup agree, I think scouts mighta been weighing it as pitch on it’s own vs. how effective it is off his fastball.
Yeah I have worried about Snell I’ll write about next week and looking very meh so far this afternoon…
Hey buddy,
I managed to get that walker for carrasco trade off just in time. Sadly/not sadly I had to dropped Smyly to grab Paxton so i didnt get his comeback victory. I think my league mate got cold feet on the Snell/Fowler for Harvey trade I asked your opinion on. Well, he hasn’t accepted it yet. He hasn’t declined it either.
I need to start thinking about playoffs… its a ways off yet, but H2H play offs suck. Most of your good players get shut down just when you need them most. I need to start considering the guys who will make the most impact come September. I’m gonna give my line up so you can get an idea of assets.
C- Martin
1-Edwin
2-Kipnis
3-Lamb
SS-Correa
OF-JD
OF-Cain
OF-Piscotty
OF-Herrera
DH-Cruz
U-Polanco
B-Fowler
(R, HR, RBI, BB, AVG, SB)
Pitchers-
Lacky
Archer
Thor
Matz
Carrasco
Paxton
Snell
McCullers
Herrera
Hochevar
Andrew Miller
Betances
(K, ERA, Whip, K9, sv/hld, W)
who sticks out to you that may be shut down/not playing around play off time and who, in your opinion, might make a solid trade target? maybe thats asking a lot, but I want to start thinking about and I value your opinion.
@Chad: I forgot to mention. I have Wheeler on the DL.
@Chad: Whoa nice on Carrasco! Don’t feel too bad with Paxton either he is looking good again thus far today!
Yeah I am not a fan of H2H at all. All about who is hot in the last week or two of the H2H season and I don’t think a week is a good enough sample of how good a team is.
Shutdowns – Matz! Snell. Maybe Odubel but he seems pretty durable.
Guys Who Might Have Days Off – edwin maybe. Cruz if SEA is in playoff drivers seat. Thor might have a start or 2 skipped.
That’s what jumps out to me!