BABIP is going to fuel batting average this year, which is to say good luck finding lucky hitters. Now one thousand words on how maybe we can pare down the luck. Since 2000, only three players have qualified for the batting title and hit .400+ BABIP. Last year was a particularly weird year. In 123 games and 518 plate appearances, Tim Anderson hit .335 with a .399 BABIP. Like a sushi chef who smells his fingers after handling hirame, “That’s fluky.” Yoan Moncada had 559 plate appearance and a .406 BABIP. (The other two .400+ BABIPs since 2000 were Manny Ramirez in 2000 and his .403 BABIP and Jose Hernandez in 2002 with a .404 BABIP.) Someone this year is going to have a .425+ BABIP and hit .350+. I hope it’s Ketel Marte, because I own him in every league. Pulling focus and moving into a close-up shows that in August of last year there were 15 guys who had a .400 BABIP. I’d el oh el if I weren’t such a serious man. In September, there were also 12 guys who had .400+ BABIPs. Wait, it gets better. In a full slate of games in September, Moncada had a .520 BABIP and hit .412. Yo, Yoan, you Tony Gywnn Jr. Jr. or no? Okay, cool. You might think BABIP is fueled by speed in the short-term, to which I say, Ryan McBroom, Wil Myers and Kyle Schwarber were in the .400+ BABIP group in September. BABIP is going to make batting averages a short-term coin flip, but we still need to figure out some battle plan. So, with a 60-game season, what is a fantasy baseball strategy for batting average?
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Dudes and five lady dudes, pitching is going to be a mess in 2020. Pitching is usually where I excel at pinpointing guys to draft and avoid, and right now I’m looking at an array of hot takes: “Top starters are more valuable! “Top middle relievers are more valuable!” “Tops are bottoms, and I’m not talking about baseball anymore!” I can’t tell hot takes from shiitakes. Usually I’m able to say, “With 100% confidence, I would not draft a top starter.” This year, if you’re saying anything with 100% confidence, you’re lying. Seriously, don’t trust anyone who is confident in predicting anything in a 60-game season. We’ve never seen anything like this and may never again. Embrace it? Sure. But “Be Water” like Bruce Lee said, and adapt. With so few innings to prepare for the season in Summer Camp, will top starters even be ready to go? That alone should shut up the “You need top starters” people. With so few innings in the actual season, that should also shut up the “Don’t pay for starters this year” people. Instead, let’s just break down the categories, and see if we can’t just win those. Laura also just gave you a solid look at possible ERA strategy. So, with a 60-game season, what is a fantasy baseball strategy for ERA & WHIP?
Please, blog, may I have some more?First Charlie Blackmon, now Freddie Freeman…Somebody check on Reggie Cleveland! Welp, this sucks. That’s me cutting to the chase quicker than the editors of the Fast & Furious movies. “Um, Vin Diesel’s been talking for like seven seconds, don’t we have any tire spinning footage?” That’s the editors cutting to the chase. There’s also the Entourage editors, who tried to cut around Chase. Or Ruben Tejada who would like to cut Chase. Any hoo! Freddie Freeman tested positive for Covid and is battling a fever. Besides the fear for Freeman, if something serious happens to a player, baseball’s not happening this year. Other players will walkout, and I wouldn’t blame them. Sorry, I know that’s no fun to hear, but you’re not here to be lied to. As for fantasy, these Covid positive tests are super hard to predict for projections and rankings. Of course, if drafting right now; you can’t draft Freddie Freeman in the top 20 overall. Not sure you can draft him in the top 50 overall, but that’s about where I’d risk it, and have updated my top 20 1st basemen, top 100 and top 500. I did blow the dust off my landscape architect degree and hedge with my new ranking of Freeman by not updating his projections. It’s just impossible to know if he’ll be out for two-to-three weeks, and fine for near the start of the season, or miss the whole season. Unknown risk is baked into his new ranking, but I left projections. Putting aside “Let the kids play,” MLB has adopted a new slogan for this season: “Play!” “What? No, it’s not safe.” “I said, “Play!” Anyway, here’s what else I saw for fantasy baseball:
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Philadelphia Freedom (From Reporting COVID-19 Cases)
July 3, 2020 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 81 Commentsby: Grey
Well, this is icky. I don’t know what MLB is doing by reporting that they’re not reporting Covid cases. I mean, I think I get it. It’s icky and it’s tricky and — “Shut up, brain, don’t start singing Run-DMC.” — and AND and I don’t know! But not reporting it is doing what exactly? They report injuries to Mitch Haniger that make you want to cross your legs. They report injuries about how a guy fell in a bathtub with a deer — hello, Clint Barmes! — but they don’t report Coronavirus? I just…I don’t know. Not sure it’s the answer. With that said, the Phillies placed Scott Kingery, Hector Neris, Tommy Hunter and Ranger Suarez on the IL yesterday without even a press release. Someone just happened to notice the roster moves. Does that mean they have Covid? Again, I don’t know. Since they announce literally every other injury, one can conclude. How serious is their symptoms? Again, no idea. This is gonna be one helluva 60-game season, huh? My solution is, if you really don’t want Covid speculation, just don’t announce any injuries at all. Change the IL to the ILL and whether it’s a hammy or Covid, don’t say anything. Just say they’re ILL. As for fantasy, Neris’s loss for saves could be huge, but we don’t know yet he’ll miss any of the season. I’d hold him. If you want to speculate, I guess Adam Morgan or a committee (which is atrocious for a 60-game season). As for Kingery, again, we don’t know how long he’ll be out (or why he’s out), so hold. This could be a boost to Adam Haseley. He could be a top 60 outfielder with everyday at-bats, and worth a shot. Or not. Wheeeeee! A 60-game season! Anyway, here’s what else I saw for fantasy baseball:
Please, blog, may I have some more? Fantasy Baseball Strategy For A 60-Game Season: Wins
July 2, 2020 | fantasy baseball strategy | 105 Commentsby: Grey
I let out a full-throated cackle when I wrote the title. I don’t know how to predict wins in a 162-game season. In a 60-game season? Dress up your four cats in players’ jerseys and spin a bottle. Whether the Fanta lands on Hairy Styles or Cat Stevens, don’t matter, pick them up, because they could lead the majors in wins. I was saying to Rudy the other day, I don’t know if it’s fortunate or not to roster Freddy Peralta. He could be the 3rd thru 6th inning guy every third game and lead the majors in wins, or he could be unrosterable. (Brewers are especially problematic with Corbin Burnes, Peralta, Josh Lindblom, Brett Anderson, and Eric Lauer. Start Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser and pray for rain, but since MLB has a hard stop date, there’s no time for rain, so spin the bottle and hope it lands on Purry Mason.) So, with a 60-game season, what is a fantasy baseball strategy for wins?
Please, blog, may I have some more?On our Steamer Fantasy Baseball Rankings, which have been updated to a 60-game season, we have 1,310 players ranked. 645 of them gained value. Some, for unstints, gained $0.1 of value like Juan Soto. Another hundred had zero value change like Christian Yelich. Another 600+ lost value. These are their stories. *Law & Order sound effect chung-chung* This post will feature the top 20 players who lost the most value from doing nothing but bingeing Netflix for the last three months. Who knew Love Is Blind could hurt one’s fantasy value? “I’m gonna go with George, he’s so funny.” “Okay, Jenn, here’s George…He’s a sign spinner for State Farm!” Anyway, here’s the top 20 biggest negative value changes for fantasy baseball pre vs. post-shutdown:
Please, blog, may I have some more?On our Steamer Fantasy Baseball Rankings, which have been updated to a 60-game season, we have 1,310 players ranked. 645 of them gained value. Some, for unstints, gained $0.1 of value like Juan Soto. Another hundred had zero value change like Christian Yelich. Another 600+ lost value. I’ll go over those guys in another post. This post will feature the top 20 players who gained the most value from doing nothing but bingeing Netflix for the last three months. Who knew watching Joe Exotic would add more value than any Driveline drills? Apparently, all baseball players need to know is, “Who is dumpster diving at your nearest Costco?” Anyway, here’s the top 20 biggest positive value changes for fantasy baseball pre vs. post-shutdown:
Please, blog, may I have some more? MLB Teams Rack Up 60 Players For Pool
June 29, 2020 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 73 Commentsby: Grey
Yesterday most teams announced their 60-man rosters for Summer Camp. You know Summer Camp, it’s when MLB players compete against each other in kayak and potato sack races, learn to respect other kids, even ones with nerdy glasses, and are managed by Bill Murray. Oh, and, yeah, all teams were supposed to release their 60-man rosters, but when you make a rule that in extra innings a runner will start on 2nd base, then rules are officially stupid and should not be followed. Rob Manfred speaking into a phone, “Brewers, we need your 60-man roster.” Brewers, “It’s in your ass, Rob.” Rob, “I’m looking in a mirror and I do not see it.” One other thing about the 60-man rosters that were released: they were all a few short of 60. 60-man rosters are a lot like Opening Day, a wait-and-see affair. Guys can be added still in the coming days. So, maybe there’s hope still for Ryan Mountcastle and Adley Rutschman, since they were omitted from the Orioles’ released 44-man roster. It would be surprising if they weren’t included in the coming days, if this weren’t the Orioles. Some teams included their 2020 draft picks. The Orioles have yet to include their 1st pick from 2015 (Mountcastle) and their 1st pick from last year. i.e., Grey’s about to lose his crap and only talk in 3rd person. Anyway, here’s what else I saw 2020 fantasy baseball:
Please, blog, may I have some more? Fantasy Baseball Strategy For A 60-Game Season: Steals
June 26, 2020 | fantasy baseball strategy | 78 Commentsby: Grey
This year we don’t have SAGNOF we have SSSAGNOF. That’s Shortened Season SAGNOF, baby! I just started breakdancing after screaming baby. What, is this a lost episode of Ally McBeal? ‘Member that show? I don’t, because I didn’t ever watch crap TV shows. Get your taste out yo’ ass! Also, that popsicle stick. That vacuum cord. That microwaved burrito. How many things do you have in your butt? As mentioned the other day in my Jarrod Dyson 60-game sleeper, steals might be the most predictable stat we have this year. Have Sprint Speed, will travel from 1st to 2nd. With runs and RBIs, it’s going to come down to lineup placement. With home runs, it’s going to come down to–Well, just go read the article. With steals, it’s gonna be as easy to measure as clicking that little button on the top of your stopwatch. By the by, what if the person pressing the clock button is slow, doesn’t that change the clocked time by a lot? Has anyone ever said runners’ times pre-digital age are all hogwash because it depended on the old man in black & white with the monocle pressing a stopwatch button? Did I just uncover some truth that everyone already knew but me? Yes? Cool. Our 2020 fantasy baseball rankings have been updated to a 60-game season. So, with a 60-game season, what is a fantasy baseball strategy for steals?
Please, blog, may I have some more? Fantasy Baseball Strategy For A 60-Game Season: Home Runs
June 25, 2020 | fantasy baseball strategy | 72 Commentsby: Grey
Welcome back to another post that you never thought you’d read from a guy who never thought he’d write it! We’re sailing into uncharted territory, worried we could die from some unknown disease, while maybe carrying the unknown plague ourselves that will kill everyone else. “Argh! Name that team in Cleveland the Indians and lets get these 60 games going!” Guys and five female readers, if someone beats the 73 homer record in only 60 games, they have to count it even if the person is shooting up while in the on-deck circle, right? As Long John Silver once said, don’t want to go out on a limb, but c’mon. In a shortened season of 60 games, it will be imperative that you go after categories vs. players. Sure, use the fantasy baseball trade analyzer. (I clickbaited you and you didn’t even see it coming!) Roast your leaguemates with them quick-to-the-point-to-the-point-no-faking fake baseball trades, but you need categories and stats over player names. Who can get you home runs and how fast can they do it? How do we even figure that out? Luckily, this is a rhetorical question to tell you I have you covered like a blanket infected with lice. So, with a 60-game season, what is a fantasy baseball strategy for home runs?
Please, blog, may I have some more? Fantasy Baseball Strategy For A 60-Game Season: Runs & RBIs
June 24, 2020 | fantasy baseball strategy | 82 Commentsby: Grey
Deal has been struck, right? Baseball is the only sport where it announces its start, but no one is sure if it really announced its start. Good ol’ baseball being super stupid as usual. Okay, baseball is set to return on July 1st, and the season will happen, if Covid cooperates. The season won’t look like any baseball season we’ve ever seen before. This year someone will get to 220 at-bats and it will take playing every game of the 60-game season while ducking Covid, which is not “ducking” after Siri autocorrects it; that’s not “ducking” at all. No one says get the duck out of here, Siri, unless you have Daffy problems. Mookie Betts might get 50 runs, and he will lead the major leagues in runs. Cody Bellinger might lead the majors in RBIs with 58 and only score 35 runs. There could be guys who hit at the bottom of their respective lineups, play every day and barely crack ten runs or RBIs. Actually, gonna google real fast if anyone has every played in every game of a baseball season and failed to reach 10 runs or RBIs. Just messin’! I ain’t googling that shizz because obviously it ain’t ever been done. There might be five everyday players in the Tigers’ lineup this year who don’t reach 10 runs or RBIs. You know AP style is to write out numbers one through nine? Well, it is, and we might need to write out numbers in statlines this year. Nike Goodrum: nine/four/nine/.two-fifty-four/three. Ain’t no way around it. I have gone on the record as saying I welcome any baseball this year. Whether it’s 50, 60, or 20 games. Doesn’t matter to me, because I want to see them get out there and play baseball. Give me a month of games; works for me! Just don’t let me see anyone spit! You heathens! This year could be so screwy that MLB start its 60-game season and, due to Covid, end early and we only get 40 games. That’s just what we’re gonna have to deal with this year. Instead of going over all the players who will become DHs in the NL, which I will let stew for a week, I’m going to talk about overall strategy for a 60-game season. All 2020 fantasy baseball rankings have been updated for a 60-game season. So, with a 60-game season, what is a fantasy baseball strategy for runs and RBIs?
Please, blog, may I have some more? MLB’s 2020 Vision Of A Season Is More Like A Miniseries
June 23, 2020 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 79 Commentsby: Grey
BASEBALL IS BACK (after players agree to health and safety measures; kiss their families goodbye for perhaps four months if they get into the postseason; get tested for Covid-19 repeatedly; report to camp; go through spring training 2.0 which could be three weeks long; avoid injuries and anyone outside the bubble of the MLB who could infect them; dip and dodge a far-reaching pandemic while keeping their eye on the prize and that prize is what exactly? 60 games to prove they can be the fastest to ten homers and push their teams to winning 32 games? If Costanza saw this season, he’d scream, “Shrinkage!” But we’re going to remain optimistic, right? We got baseball that’s what’s important…well, the players’ health is important too, so that brings us back to the health and safety measures — ya know what? I’m getting out of this parenthetical while I still have something to look forward to.), BABY, BASEBALL IS BACK! Spring Training will begin, in theory, on July 1st. By the by, “in theory” is something you’re going to read a lot from me over the next two months. “In theory” this is baseball. “In theory” the Nats are defending their title. “In theory” Luis Arraez hit .400 for the season even though he only had 175 at-bats. “In theory” Jesse Winker could stay healthy for 60 games and be the Reds’ DH. There will be a universal DH this year (not necessarily in 2021), and the season will start (in theory) on the weekend of July 24th. I told you it would start again on July 24th for the last three months. Okay, I wrote it as July 4th, but there was a 2 in front of the 4 that I was writing in .00001-point font. Not my fault your eyesight is going. Okay, baseball returning gets me to give out a little woohoo. In like 12-point font. If I’m being real and sappy, I love baseball, and I’m glad it’s going to try to return. Rudy tells me he has updated all my 2020 fantasy baseball rankings to sixty games, but since this all happened late last night, it might not happen until Tuesday afternoon. I will then go over some strategy for a 60-game season and then news from spring training, where I’m almost 100% we’re going to hear certain players are not going to play this year. If it’s possible, I’d suggest you begin scheduling some redrafts for early July. Just think, draft season is the best season, and now we’re getting it twice! Anyway, here’s what else I saw in fantasy baseball:
Please, blog, may I have some more?