*rubbing hands together*  This is where things get interesting.  Anyone could tell you Scherzer, deGrom, yadda, blabbedy, blue are top 20 starters.  I could ask some bean counter in Modesto, California who the top 20 starters and he’d know, and he counts beans!  Anyone can count beans!  Honestly, why is he counting beans?  Seems like a waste of time.  Any hoo!  The top 40 starters for 2019 fantasy baseball is a bit like the top 20 for 2019 fantasy baseball.  It could go dozens of ways.  This is the way I went.  Here’s Steamer’s 2019 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2019 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers.  All projections listed are mine and I mention where I see tiers starting and stopping.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2019 fantasy baseball:

CLICK HERE FOR TOP 20 STARTERS FOR 2019 FANTASY BASEBALL

21. Jameson Taillon – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Price.  I call this tier, “Just put the cap of toothpaste on without mentioning it.”  In the narrative of “You Were Meant For Me” by Jewel, she makes a point of saying she put the cap back on the toothpaste.  Yes, that’s good, but you have to point it out?  How about you just put the cap back on without mentioning it?  That’s this tier, putting the cap on the toothpaste without pointing out what a great person you are for doing the only conscionable thing you can do after removing the toothpaste cap, i.e., these pitchers are good without drawing attention to it.  As for Taillon, if he were traded to the Astros, I’d be all up in Taillon’s meat groove, and would rank him in the top 15 overall.  For the last two years, Taillon has had a 8.4 K/9, which means he’d be a 12 K/9 guy on the Astros.  Here’s Ray Searage, “It’s better if you throw to contact.”  Shut up, Searage, and get your wet blanket off Taillon!  2019 Projections:  13-11/3.47/1.15/185 in 196 IP

22. Zack Wheeler – If we were just ranking per pitchers’ 2nd halves, then Wheeler would be ranked 2nd overall.  Though, Trevor Williams would be 1st.  Though, Part 2: How Many Of Those Thoughs You Got? deGrom would be 3rd.  Wheeler’s 2nd half:  1.68 ERA, 3.47 xFIP, 8.8 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and 20.4% K-BB%.  The biggest change from 1st to 2nd half was the lowered walk rate, increase in fastball velocity and frequency he threw his slider.  He had the best fastball in the 2nd half, up from the 33rd best fastball in the 1st half.  If the velocity holds, Wheeler could easily be a top 10 pitcher.  I don’t know how much I believe it…Actually, to mansplain, I do know how much I believe it.  I believe it to draft him 24th overall for starters.  2019 Projections:  13-9/3.51/1.14/196 in 194 IP

23. Jose Berrios – I could’ve called this tier a solid number two, and a number one in a pinch with just a bit more risk, which is different than a risky pinched number two.  At least one guy in this tier will be ranked in the top 10 overall for starters next year (and at least one will be ranked out of the top 40, but hush that fuss).  If I were a gambling man, I’d say Berrios’s trends say he’s the most likely to breakout of this tier.  He’s also the riskiest.  2019 Projections: 13-10/3.60/1.15/205 in 196 IP

24. J.A. Happ – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Re-signed with the Yankees.  To get a deal, Happ didn’t even have to tell anyone how he’d hypothetically strike out Babe Ruth.  Have you heard about this?  Adam Ottavino said he would strike out Babe Ruth.  Offseason NFL is about who murdered who, offseason MLB is hypotheticals about superstars who have been dead 70 years.  Yo, who says baseball is not lit?  My thoughts on it, Ottavino’s a moron.  Saying he’d strike out Ruth is like saying I’d beat Albert Einstein at a quiz on Game of Thrones mythology.  Yeah, Einstein might struggle with that one.  Or a less ridiculous hypothetical, a top scientist today vs. Einstein as they’re quizzed on current science trends.  Any hoo!  Happ’s had a Verlander-type resurgence the deeper his career has gone.  Never sexy to rely on a 36-year-old, but if he can maintain a 9+ K/9 and 2.5-ish BB/9, then his xFIP will be under 3.90 and he’ll be worth owning in all leagues.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2019 Projections: 13-7/3.77/1.16/181 in 170 IP

25. David Price – Here’s a flashy young name, huh?  If you’ve followed the stylings of the Fantasy Master Lothario for an Urban Dictionary minute, it won’t be surprising to hear I battled myself to get Price in the below tier of guys I’m avoiding.  “Rank him below”  *smacks self across face*  “Jesus Christ, that hurt!”  *Smacks self again*  “Stop being a baby!”  “Seriously, stop slapping me, it fudging hurts!”  “Fudging?  What are you Ralphy in A Christmas Story?  Grow a set!”  *kicks self in balls*  See, so you see I really battled myself, but I ended up ranking Price here knowing I might not draft him if any of the guys above are available.  He really hasn’t been bad the last few years, even if a bit inconsistent on how many innings he throws.  *steps on knuckles of a fallen Grey*  “Please, self.”  “You’re gonna curse the day you met me!”  “You’ve made your point.”  *slams head into wall*  “Goddamnit!”  2019 Projections:  15-9/3.62/1.17/181 in 179 IP

26. Joey Lucchesi – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Castillo.  I call this tier, “The Hanging Gardens of Babylon Snapchat Filter.”  By the tier name, these guys are wonders of the modern world.  We’re not going back to olden times and marveling at Justin Verlander.  We could care less what happened back in, say, 2016.  These guys are for a modern world.  As for Lucchesi, I already gave you a Joey Lucchesi sleeper.  It was written by me, then renovated by The Property Brothers.  2019 Projections:  12-9/3.62/1.27/174 in 163 IP

27. Eduardo Rodriguez – I already gave you an Eduardo Rodriguez sleeper.  It debuted on a song with Shaq and the Fu-Schnickens. 2019 Projections:  13-7/3.58/1.24/168 in 158 IP

28. Tyler Glasnow – I already gave you a Tyler Glasnow sleeper.  It spraypainted an M on the front of a Carvel store, then melted a Fudgie the Whale with its eyes, after 45 minutes of staring at it out of its freezer case. 2019 Projections:  10-8/3.68/1.23/182 in 158 IP

29. Shane Bieber – I already gave you a Shane Bieber sleeper.  It dated, on and off, Selena Gomez for six years.  2019 Projections: 13-7/3.45/1.12/154 in 156 IP

30. Luis Castillo – I should’ve written a sleeper post for Castillo too, but I did last year (oops) and his 1st half last year was so demoralizing.  Plus, I went over him in the video at the top of the post.  Everything clicked as it was supposed in the 2nd half (2.44 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 3.17 xFIP) and now I’m seeing the narrative we were missing all along.  Know how I love starters heading into their third season?  Bee eye en gee oh!  As much as Castillo was on everyone’s radars last year?  He should be on more radars this year and he’s on less.  We should be expressing our gratitude for him killing people’s fantasy teams last year.  You had no idea, but, if you owned him last year, your team was a martyr.   You’ll now be listed with all of the great martyrs in history:  your aunt Karen, your aunt Jodi, your aunt…Okay, every aunt is a martyr.  2019 Projections:  11-11/3.71/1.19/187 in 181 IP

31. Charlie Morton – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Kershaw.  I call this tier, “I’ve placed my foot on the back of your knee and I’m pulling.”  By the tier name I mean, I’m attempting to pull your head out of your ass for overdrafting these guys, let’s see how well I do.  Please rate and review my head-pulling-from-anus abilities on iTunes.  As for Morton, here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Rays.  The Rays went out and got Morton because they’re suspicious of too many people realizing their opener trick.  Kinda like how your dentist says, “Only one more filing,” then takes a pliers and rips out your back tooth.  Or is that only me?  Stupid Obamacare!  I’m a bit surprised the Rays went out and got Morton.  He doesn’t feel like the Rays’ type at all.  (Mad Libs in name of player you’ve never heard of who they’re about to turn into someone good) feels like the Rays’ type.  Morton had elbow issues at the end of last year, is 35 years old, and just threw the 2nd most IP of his career.  I don’t know, Rays, I think the Astros might’ve Jokey Smurf’d you.  I won’t be going out of my way to draft Morton this year.”  And that’s me copying and pasting me!  2019 Projections: 9-6/3.54/1.18/159 in 144 IP

32. Madison Bumgarner –  I have a fun idea.  Get a giant, uh, Giants fan and have Bumgarner pretend to be his Uber while driving on a motorcycle.  On one hand, they wanna wrap their arms around Bumgarner.  On the other hand, there’s a 35% chance you’re going to end up falling and breaking your right side.  I had no doubt I wanted Bumgarner in a tier of pitchers I didn’t want, but I considered lowering him even further.  This is where we get into trouble, because someone is going to say something like, “What if Bumgarner and Pivetta are both on the board?  Who do you draft?”  Pivetta is someone who I haven’t ranked yet, but I do like him as you know from my sleeper post.  I draft Pivetta over Bumgarner even though Bumgarner is ranked above him, and you’re giving a hypothetical that would never happen.  Bumgarner is being drafted in front of pitchers I like who I ranked before him.  Bumgarner would never be an option with Pivetta.  2019 Projections: 10-9/3.67/1.20/178 in 206 IP

33. Chris Archer – You, with your doe-eyes, “Any interest in Archer this year?”  Me, cynical and judgy, as I stare blankly at you.  With your luck, if you draft Archer, not only will he have a 4+ ERA again and a 1.35+ WHIP again, but he will also cut down on his Ks because Ray Searage looks at every pitcher like they’re a grease fire.  Stop throwing baking soda on everyone, Searage!  2019 Projections:  9-11/3.89/1.26/209 in 192 IP

34. Masahiro Tanaka – Yes, I will consider trading for Tanaka in the 2nd half.  No, I will not be drafting him for his 8.75 April ERA, and 9.12 May ERA.  2019 Projections:  13-10/3.81/1.19/178 in 175 IP

35. Robbie Ray – A question direct from a final exam at the Fantasy Baseball College at Charleston, “Is a 12+ K/9 ever bad from a starter?”  The professor rarely changes the question from year to year, or his sweatpants.  So, we know the answer is, “Yes, when it comes with a 5+ BB/9.”  I wanted to figure out a way to get excited for Ray, and he only needs to shave a little over one walk per nine off his walk rate, and has been there in the past, but, if I’m being honest, I don’t want to risk it after he made my team’s ratios look like a heroin den’s bathroom last year.  2019 Projections: 8-12/3.95/1.32/217 in 177 IP

36. Clayton Kershaw – I wanted to drop Kershaw even further, but ranking him this low already sets me apart from most, if not all other rankings.  Could Kershaw have a Verlander-type reemergence as he moves into his 30’s?  Certainly.  Or soitenly, if someone is reading dressed as Curly Howard.  You’re crumby with crackers if you’re drafting Kershaw because you know he will return to form.  Let’s start with the good:  his command is fairly stable, and terrific.  Let’s list all the problems:  velocity way down, can’t throw 200 IP anymore, chase rate is down, contact rate is way up, Ks are way down, xFIP is highest it’s been in six years, and he’s leaving less men on base.  Honestly, I think I’m being optimistic by ranking him this high.  He could be great, and might have a sub-3 ERA again, but it won’t come with elite Ks or a full season.  UPDATE:  Can’t play catch without coming away too sore to continue pitching.  Bummed that more people didn’t draft this schmohawk before he came down with the “every pitcher who has thrown too many innings”-itis.  Shame I didn’t even get to write a schmohawk post about him before it happened, so at least I can point to how correct I was, though I did tell everyone in the above blurb.  I still would not touch him with a ten-foot pole.  Or really even an eleven-foot pole.   Actually, how big do poles come?  Hey, Ivan Putski, any guesses?  2019 Projections: 10-4/3.10/1.07/126 in 131 IP

37. Kyle Hendricks – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the top 60 starters for 2019 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Sideways bosom.”   There’s safety in numbers.  The number three, for unstints, is safe.  The number 3 also looks like a sideways bosom.  What’s more comforting!  These pitchers should be a fantasy number 3 like a sideways bosom.  As for Hendricks, I wasn’t sure how much I wanted to nuzzle Hendricks coming into this year, but looking at his numbers leaves me feeling like an 8-year-old during an attachment parenting session.   Two years ago, a 3.03 ERA.  Last year, 3.44 ERA.  Sure, it comes with a 7.3-ish K/9, but there’s no walks and it’s not a bad sideways bosom to latch onto.  2019 Projections:  13-9/3.51/1.16/158 in 194 IP

38. Miles Mikolas – On a side note about ADP, I know I won’t be able to draft Mikolas this late, but, if he happens to fall, I will happily take him.  His K/9 last year was 6.55, which makes me want to put up a meh emoji, but his stuff reads to me more like a 7+ K/9 guy and, with his 1.3 BB/9, that will more than do.  By the way, what’s with every pitcher who has pitched in Japan, or is Japanese, having incredible command?  It’s almost like efficiency is taught in Japan.  2019 Projections:  13-9/3.61/1.12/165 in 202 IP

39. Nathan Eovaldi – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Re-signed with the Red Sox.  Eovaldi is coming off his best season and has really started to find his strikeouts with his 97 MPH fastball.  Plus, that command?  *chef’s kiss*  Okay, now to translate that into numbers.  He had a 3.81 ERA with an 8.2 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 and was able to throw 111 IP.  Everything in the 1st sentence, lavishing praise, was accurate, and all those other numbers are true too, yet not very impressive.  Eovaldi seems to have stumbled into the Red Sox hype machine.  He was better in the 2nd half, but I see more of a potential decent fantasy number three.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2019 Projections:  12-8/3.78/1.16/135 in 149 IP

40. Cole Hamels –  Truth bomb alert!  I had Hamels in a tier below of older, known starters and, specifically, Cubs starters I don’t want, but Hamels’s 2nd half was good enough for me to ignore the advancing age and hideousness of his fastball.  He had a 3.69 xFIP in the 2nd half, improved ground balls and fewer fly balls, which is as important in Wrigley as a catheter to avoid urinals.  2019 Projections:  13-10/3.89/1.24/184 in 189 IP

 
  1. Big Magoo

    Big Magoo says:
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    Love Wheeler this year. Ditched his worst pitch (sinker) for another out pitch (splitter). Increased his fastball velo by 1.3 mph. Cut down on his walks. 4th lowest avg exit velo allowed among SPs (84.7 mph). Good pitcher’s park. Mets ditched four of their worst defensive players (Reyes, Bautista, AGon, Asdrubel) and improved the bullpen (Diaz, Familia, Wilson). Top 15 SP. Could crack the top 10 with good health.

    Bieber is an interesting player. Great situation, mediocre stuff. Command has been impeccable throughout his career. When he’s slightly off, gets knocked around though (89.4 avg exit velo – 11th worst among SPs). Could be a bit of a roller coaster ride.

    Surprised to see you in on Happ and especially Price. Starting to get up there in years and had deep postseason runs. Lots of wear and tear.

    Hendricks is kind of like this generation’s Greg Maddux. Doesn’t throw hard at all, but spins the ball well and puts it exactly where he wants it. Exceptional command. Manages contact very well. Good situation. Fairly durable. High floor. WHIP asset.

    Ryu’s a guy I would put in this group. Durability issues, but very solid when he’s in there. NL West looks pretty weak this year. The DBacks are starting to rebuild, and the Padres and Giants aren’t good. Should provide some quality outings.

    • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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      @Big Magoo : I love Ryu in mixed leagues where there’s always pitching on the wire. Like you said, his outings range from solid – pretty great, even after returning from that horrible sounding groin injury. He seems like he’s going very late in drafts too…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Big Magoo: Like how you’re thinking with Wheeler! I think Ryu’s soon to follow in the rankings, and just got cut due to random cutoff points in the rankings…

  2. Ante Galic says:
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    Grey!!!

    That is some wonderful top 40 for pitchers report! Loved it.

    a. Okay, so…Buehler, Flaherty, Taillon, Glasnow, Bieber and Wheeler. Am listening.

    b. Subdued Norm MacDonald quote of the day for January 31

    1. This week President Clinton gave Japanese Prime Minister Tomichi Muriyama a basket of Washington State apples. Afterwards the Asian Head of State said: “Hey, thanks for the apples. I really owe you one now.”

    2. Hillary Clinton invited Newt Gingrich and his mother to the White House. Apparently, she’s hoping they’ll get caught in the crossfire!

    3. The Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco and Firearms has given approval to a new bullet so brutally destructive that it will tear through your soft tissue, rip apart your vital organs and then take all your money and live it up with your girlfriend in Aruba.

    4. A 51-year old cosmonaut set a world space endurance record this week after spending 367 days aboard the Russian space station Mir. And also, as a side note, he smashed his own masturbation record.

    5. In Walnut Creek, California, anyone who turns in his gun can get free therapy. And anyone who doesn’t turn in his gun can get free anything they want.

    Cheers,
    Ante

  3. Wally Pipp says:
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    Joey lucchesi seems like a huge gamble.

    Last year he pitched only 130 innings in the bigs, 67 of those innings were before the AS break and he had a 3.34 era that was a result of good luck babip and a .220 batting avg against.

    Second half his luck ran out and after the AS break he posted a 4.88 era with a .280 batting avg against over 62.2 innings.

    I see him as an injury risk guy who also doesnt have a track record of being good. Yeah hes got potential but 29 overall is a big stretch for lucchesi.

    Also you ever see this guys delivery? Ita weird af, i dont see him as a guy whos likely to pitch a ton of consistent innings. Throw in the fact he plays on the padres, hurting his chances to get wins, highly highly doubt he finishes in the top 40 starters for 2019.

    GL

    • Wally Pipp says:
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      @Wally Pipp: lucchessi had a 6.20 era in september in 24.2 innings that month, so he completely wore down and had nothing at the end of last season, and thats in a year where he threw only 130 innings in the bigs.

      I cant see him pitching a strong 170+ innings this year, not close. He couldnt pitch a strong 130 innings last year, last season he was good for like 67 innings.

      I fear hes going to be one of your busts. I was on lucchesi last year as a streamer and have mild interest in him this year, but 29 overall? I dont see how hes ranked ahead of anyone else you have ranked behind him on this list really but GL.

      Besides lucchessi i think the pitching rankings have been really great. GL

      • Harley Earl says:
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        @Grey: Wally makes good points, Grey. Either you disagree and don’t want to get into the minutia or maybe you are seeing Wally’s side of it? I think #29 is a little too high.

        I also think Ryu is worth the #40 ranking. If he’s healthy, he’s going to produce at least at the #40 level.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Maybe he’s right, I said my two cents on him when I wrote the post about him

          • Wally Pipp says:
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            @Grey</he [email protected]Grey: thing is he really wasnt that good at home, 5-5 with a 3.99 era. It did come with a lot of ks but idk i think hes already being priced up in drafts and is a big risk for injury and also performance. No chance i end up with him. You should have him on almost every team with this ranking. GL

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, I might just have him everywhere

  4. bbboston says:
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    Grey,

    Hoping to see Heaney in the top 40…… Based on your sleeper post, it felt that might be a possibility. I’ll wait patiently for tmrw. Thanks for the great work….

    • Dave D says:
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      @bbboston:

      I agree on Heaney. I like Lucchesi too but if they both are available I’m taking Heaney first.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @Dave D: Yeah? Hmm… Maybe, kinda like the NL, and Petco a bit more… Rockies on road, Giants home or away, Dodgers away, Diamondbacks home and away… Not that the AL West is going to be very good either…

        • Dave D says:
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          @Grey:

          Well, you make good points, but as you noted in his sleeper post, if Heaney improves just a bit he becomes a bona fide #1. I might like Lucchesi oven Heaney in 2020, but as someone else noted, Heaney’s IP will probably be a lot higher and with it I’d suspect he will be quite capable of winning 17-18 games ( maybe 20 with a lot of luck/good bullpen) whereas I seen Lucchesi winning 13-14 in a good case scenario.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Yeah, decent points…I like them both a lot…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @bbboston: Yeah, he’ll be around shortly… You know I like him!

  5. Max says:
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    Would you rather have Carrasco or Berrios, keeper forever, standard 5×5 scoring?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Max: Berrios

  6. Max Vignola says:
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    Would you rather have Berrios or Carrasco, keeper forever, standard 5×5 scoring?

  7. Bill Lumbergh says:
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    Grey:

    Proposing a new glossary term – Blundersnatch.

    Blundersnatch: When you submit to the impulse to drop a sleeper, post-hype prospect or other draft target in favor of the hot waiver wire add (who then flames out) – only to see your dropped player realize their expected potential on an opponent’s team. [See also: Premature Evacuation] Additionally your decision(s) may or may not be being controlled by someone 30+ years in the future with nothing better to do than play a choose your own adventure of your fantasy baseball season.

    • Alex H says:
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      @Bill Lumbergh:

      Love that. I made a huge blundersnatch dropping Eddie Rosario last year.

      • Goldirocks says:
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        @Alex H:
        LOL! Nice one!
        Benedict Blundersnatch!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Bill Lumbergh: Haha, I’ve Blundersnatched a few in my day too!

      • Bill Lumbergh says:
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        @Grey: Ha – haven’t we all… Hoping this one makes the glossary. Thanks

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Total Blundersnatch!

          • The Great Knoche says:
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            @Grey: My blundersnatch usually hasn’t involved fantasy baseball.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I’ve blundersnatched in many areas of my life

  8. J says:
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    Curious who you might have lower/higher in your rankings in a roto league with quality starts instead of wins… bump Greinke up into top 20? Thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @J: Don’t draft Greinke

  9. Dave D says:
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    Bold. Controversial. Daring. Me likes it. Gotta take some risks and leaps of faith while defying traditional wisdom to be a winner. Nice piece.

  10. The Great Knoche says:
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    Lucchesi 29? I know he’s a sleeper but Damn! 55th starter off the board though so I guess it’s not that far fetched.

    Already mentioned this, Only 2 pitches for the most part, none of which are a breaking ball and none of which are a plus pitch. Relies on deceptive arm angle, which is only gonna get him so far.

    I really like Glasnow and Castillo this year, and those are the two who I see myself owning everywhere, and at least in my dreams end up as top 15 starters this year.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @The Great Knoche: I love them all… I don’t worry too much about Lucchesi, but from the comments, I’m apparently the only one not worried, so maybe I should be worried

  11. Shadow says:
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    Hey Grey, wanted to thank you for your entertaining reviews. I pour over a lot of projections, and value your input more than any. Thanks in part to your help, I’ve put together a pretty solid keeper team over the last couple years. Check out my keepers for this year (pending one trade I’m pretty sure I can get through):

    C-Gary Sanchez
    1B- Matt Olsen
    2b-Jose Ramirez
    3b-Manny Machado
    SS-Trevor Story
    OF-Mike Trout
    OF-Michael Conforto
    OF-Nomar Mazara
    Util-Jonathan Villar

    SP-Aaron Nola
    SP-Patrick Corbin
    SP-Blake Snell
    SP-Jose Berrios
    SP-Jameson Tallion
    SP-Charlie Morton

    RP-Corey Knebel
    RP-Blake Treinen
    RP-AJ Minter

    And I’ve still got a fair amount of cap space to pick up a few of your sleepers in the draft.

    Realize you’re not super high on all those guys, but I can only do so much. ;-)

    Thanks again.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Shadow: Thanks! Only really concerned about Morton… Your team looks solid… I don’t love Jo-Ram when redrafting him in the top 4 overall, but as a keeper that’s solid

      • Shadow says:
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        @Grey: Thanks. Yeah, me too. But I can’t not keep him at his price. Although, I might make room for Peacock ( cheaper) with that RP eligibility, instead, if he wins a rotation spot. What you think?

        We have 4 RP slots, and I’d rather have a decent SP/RP than a scrub closer for that 4th slot.

        • Shadow says:
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          @Shadow:

          H2H points, hence the SP/RP preference.

  12. B says:
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    My heart sunk a bit when I couldn’t find Heaney on this one. I suppose I’ll find out tomorrow, but was he close? Your sleeper post on him had me all jacked up. Is it the injury risk that knocks him out of the top 40 for you? Or just the fact that he still has steps to take?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @B: Yeah, he’s not far behind… If someone in this list is, say, 165 overall, Heaney could be 170 and be in the next list

  13. This gem, & tomorrow’s to 60 have annually been invaluable. Grey knows arms. Not sure that the 3rd season principle correlates to hitters, but Castillo better not Buxton us! Luis ruined
    many of us last season. But at a bargain price, I think that unlike Byron, Luis may be worth another shot. What does it mean if you were the martyr last season as to lower ta pitcher’s following season’s ADP, then subsequently drafting him again at a bargain rate? That seems like a fine masochistic strategy; for those of us into that type of thing. Thanks for the continued great work, Grey.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @zombie: No problem! Yeah, exactly on Castillo… Not too worried about his path vs. Buxton’s path to greatness… Castillo is building up and getting better… Buxton is still doing the crap he was doing 3 years ago

  14. Mooouse says:
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    Keeper league:

    Moustakas or Archer?

    Thanks

    • Peacecoast says:
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      @Mooouse: Moose, fuck Archer, aren’t we all tired of waiting for him to perform?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Mooouse: Agree with Peace, but it would be nice if Moose signed…

  15. Johnnyhobbes says:
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    First fella i’m picking off is Flaherty, then pretty much the rest of your sleepers. That sentence looks weird. I guess the answer to my question will come out with overall rankings or player rater rankings. Very useful tool compared to the average draft position posted on espn lately. I am giving into mock drafting this year. I thought the purist in me would disapprove, but this space monkey is is making it to the moon and back this year.

    Thanks for what you do!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Johnnyhobbes: Haha, No problem! Be safe on the moon, you can’t breath the air, remember that…

  16. Squat Cobblers says:
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    Good stuff Lothario! Per your sleeper posts, I pretty much have all your sleeper SPs in the 4 drafts I’ve done thus far…All except Glasnow. I guess I’ve been taking the others in that tier instead. Must get one share at some point.

    SPECIAL SHOUT-OUT to fellow Cards fan HARLEY or whatever the poster’s name is from yesterday. You need to relax. You are certainly welcome to disagree with O-Town Steve’s analysis of Flaherty. But there is no need to take shizz personal. Bringing up that ‘Cubs Fan’ nonsense makes us Cards lovers look bad…. like the time MAGA Cards fans criticized Fowler for simply stating a fact: That the muslim travel ban greatly inconvenienced his wife and wife’s family.

    I greatly appreciate Oaktown Steve’s analysis…whether or not I agree with it. After all, he’s not saying Flaherty enjoys children like a clergyman or throws rocks at cats. He’s merely pointing out that he is being drafted too high. No need to take offense.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Squat Cobblers: Nice, thanks! Yeah, I think Oaktown knows he’s appreciated…

      • knucks says:
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        @Grey: But who is Oaktown’s RP darling this year…? Will he tell us…? Is it Leclerc?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Why won’t he tell us?

          • knucks says:
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            @Grey: Because I haven’t really pressed him yet haha, but I’m going to below.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Good luck, let me know how it goes!

  17. Bucktail30 says:
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    Dynasty keep forever OBP league…

    Trade Matt Chapman, Tyler O’neill and Luke Voit

    for

    Anthony Rendon and 1st pick in draft(non-propects)?

    Notable free agents: Renfroe, Piscotty, Smoak, Andrew Miller, Will Smith, Jake Junis, Roark, Wily Peralta

    • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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      @Bucktail30: If those are your best options with the first pick in draft, I’d hold. No hate on Rendon, but I like Chapman + in OBP he won’t look very different than Rendon (plus he’s younger / fewer injury issues) + you get to keep Voit (who could be really interesting) and another good piece in O’neill. Don’t think any of the notable free agents you mentioned move the needle over Voit/O’neill.

  18. Jason says:
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    10 team H2H keeper question. I’m deep at OF (Blackmon, Benintendi, Davis, Marte, and Ozuna) and have Baez and Albies at 2B. I, however, don’t have a 3B. Should I trade Benintendi and Albies to get Arenado and Austin Meadows? Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Nah

  19. rapscallion3 says:
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    Keeper league 13 teams 5×5. I was offered Harper and Verlander for Arenado. We keep 5 players. I plan on E Suarez as one of my keepers, but would likely drop him if I took the deal. I also have Kluber as a keeper so I don’t really need Verlander too. Should I decline, accept and drop Suarez, or accept and try to trade Kluber or Verlander for a draft pick?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d take Bryce/Verlander and drop Eugenio

  20. goodfold2 says:
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    i’m not that far behind finally. caught all the way up with the 4-6 min short videos for single players, all the way on all podcasts, page 5 for overall stuff. finished my 30 team 6 round draft (up to 40 man prospect slots in total, first year it didn’t go up by 5 and was 40 last year), put obviously tons of time into that one, as it’s ridiculously deep knowledge. meanwhile our 5 weeks of FA starts with final bids for week 1 tomorrow. since this is first year of the year in which it’s original rookie contracts have ended there are more guys available than usual. now only guys rostered are 1 of our 3 yearly tags (1 franchise, 1 restricted and 1 of either), guys who were matched in previous years and had more than a 1 year deal, guys bid on multiyear deals before and guys still on other rookie contracts. so i’m ranking about 40 CI, 40 MI, more OF, tons of SP (i need these by far the least though), and so damn many RP it hurts my damn eyes (many of which are at best like the 5th guy away from closer or are currently in minors or unsigned).

    mostly i’m all over the place on depthcharts.com. so i’m seeing ty france as somebody who’s apparently starting at 3B for SD, batting 8 (no platoon). player rater only has him down for 50 at bats. any clue what’s up with him. after our 4th FA week anybody not named in one of the lists and anybody not won in bidding goes into week 5 (or somebody won then dropped when a guy realized he can’t afford him or has no space for him). also it’s claiming margot is now only a bad side platooner.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I don’t buy Ty France is starting at 3B… I think Moustakas might get signed there, or they try Myers again, or Hosmer, or anyone but France… Margot, Franmil, Franchy are all in trouble if Myers is in the OF

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @Grey: that works for me, i restricted mostsuckass with my one restricted tag and he came back bid only to 8.5 mil, which isn’t bad at all (your OPS rater has him as a 14.8 and shandler’s forecaster (not for OPS leagues of course, just 5×5) has him higher at $21. i’m aware that shandler has himself sucked for years but his yearly forecaster guide pretty much invented mashing up bill james for fantasy type stuff and still puts out a quite useful book, he did in the intro even make fun of his finishes last year).

        this week we got these interesting names I got about 52.5 mil left and only
        C
        CI (2) mostsuckass, drury
        MI (2) segura
        OF (3) e.rosario, altherr, hicks, mags sierra
        util
        for hitting.
        week 1 guys available (see what range you’d bid them roughly):
        CI: muncy, bour, franco, pujols
        MI: legs mcneil (damn shame about him)
        OF: grichuk, markakis
        RP: closers are very expensive here, parker/strickland available this week, kela/fields/ottavino/swarzak/reed as far as topish holds types
        SP: too many to name, and i’m deep here already, so won’t pay for the big guys: e-rod, shoemaker. cullers goes this week too, would be as cheap as he’ll ever be to hang out in IR slot all year.

        i’d hope muncy would cost around 6-7 but it’ll probably be more.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          His finishes last year? Has he ever done well?

          • goodfold2 says:
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            @Grey: hehehe. he went out of his way to explain how badly he did last year (and that it was worse than normal), he didn’t go into how much better he does in other years except to say it wasn’t that bad. his book is still quite good (he doesn’t write it by himself, in fact most of the good stuff isn’t directly from him at all).

            • goodfold2 says:
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              @goodfold2: even if we admit he’s just bad baseballHQ is still well respected at least.