“Saving the best sleeper for last,” Grey said while forlornly looking out a window to see falling snow.  It was the first snow he had seen in some time, so he went outside to play in it.  When he reached his lawn, he realized it wasn’t snow.  It was floating soot from the BBQ place they opened down the block.  The liquid smoke smell hung in the air.  This was the America he knew.  Grey grabbed some fallen BBQ ash from the lawn, formed a snowball that reeked of ribs and joined in the horseplay with a few of the neighbors’ kids.  “Hey, Eddie, here’s bacon remnants in your eye!” Grey yelled as he threw the BBQ ball at Eddie, but the soot-ash ball disintegrated as soon as it left his hand.   In the pieces of shattered BBQ ash-soot ball, Grey saw all his fantasy baseball rankings that will start Monday– Suddenly, an alarm clock buzzed.  Damn, I fell asleep watching a Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives marathon while John Cougar Mellencamp was playing on the radio, and must’ve wrote the preceding while conked out.   Taking these sleepers too literal.  Anyway, what can we expect from Shane Bieber for 2019 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Prior to that Shane Bieber business, you need another refresher that is not going to be super interesting to read, but I think it’s important to say again.  Nothing like starting off by saying something is boring and has been said before.  Rule number one in Dale Carnegie’s How To Win Friends and Get People To Read Your Blog Post.  So, a quick note about everything to do with fantasy baseball that is coming up right after this terribly long, awkward intro.  Sleeper 1st basemen are okay now that the position is a mess and shallow.  Sleeper middle infidels are less ideal because those positions have filled out recently with a ton of superstars.  Sleeper outfielders are fine when you’re in a five-outfielder league and you want a flyer on the 4th or 5th outfielder.  Sleeper catchers are fine, but a bore to read about.  Yes, you want to go after sleepers at positions that are more scarce, not deeper.  Look at it this way, if your opponent has a top five shortstop, say, Lindor, you’re not in great shape if you’re taking a flyer on, say, Kolten Wong.  If your opponent has, say, Paul Goldschmidt, you can take a flyer on Luke Voit.  Are they the same?  No, of course not, but the difference between Lindor and Adames or the difference between Au Shizz and Voit?  If you understand position scarcity is dopey, and you need to take flyers on shallow positions vs. deeper ones, half my job is done.  The other half of my job is getting you to refresh the page 40,000 times per session for ad revenue.  Okay, back to pitchers, you want sleeper pitchers.  They are the position with the biggest swings depending on luck.  The wins category?  Mostly luck.  ERA?  Bunch of luck.  WHIP?  Some luck there too.  Ks?  They have the most control over this.  So, whether you’re drafting a top 20 starter or a top 60 starter, you’re hoping for some luck, so why not just go for a sleeper pitcher who is being drafted later?  Now, seriously, what can we expect from Shane Bieber from 2019 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?  Tell me already!

I’ll admit that I didn’t go heavy on the Shane Bieber info in the lede ‘graphs for one big reason.  Everything about him is gorge, so there’s little to say except how wonderful he is.  In 114 2/3 IP last year, he gave up 23 walks.  He had a top 13 walk rate (when sorting by 110 IP), and here’s the guys above him in K/9:  Verlander, Stripling and *raspberries lips*  That’s it, Cousin Sweatpants.  Him and Kluber both had 9.3 K/9 with obscenely walk rates.  Stripling (10 K/9) and Verlander (12.2) and no one else.  Maybe I’m a daydream Bieber, but 9.3 K/9 and a 1.8 BB/9 doesn’t make him a sleeper.  It makes him a top 20 starter who just doesn’t happen to have that many innings under his belt.  His 3.30 xFIP last year was 20th in the league, about the same as Syndergaard, Nola and Strasburg.  Every stat you look up with Biebs, you find a group of starters who you’d like to own for where Bieber is being drafted.  He had the tenth highest Zone% for his pitches and his Swinging Strike rate was 11.4%.  Only James Paxton matches him in that respect.  His K-BB% was 19.6%, which was similar to Charlie Morton.  His ground ball rate was even sexy at 46.6%, just above Jacob deGrom.  He was top 30 for lowest number of fly balls, near Morton and Nola again.  The only stat he’s bad in, and he was the absolute worst in the league was BABIP (.356).  A sign that he was hit by some terrible luck.  Basically, if a ground ball was headed right for Lindor, a squirrel would grab the ball and throw it into left field for a single.  Sometimes, the squirrel would toss it to his friend, a badger, who would then kick the ball for extra bases, allowing runs to score.  If Beiber didn’t have bad luck, he’d have no luck at all.  Speaking of no luck, if he has simply neutral luck this year, he’s a top 30 starter, with a chance for a top 20 starter season, and he’s being drafted after 200 overall in some leagues.  The Indians and I (we’re a team now, apparently) had great luck with Trevor Bauer last year.  This year, give me that Biebs!  For 2019, I’ll give Shane Bieber projections of 13-7/3.45/1.12/154 in 156 IP with a chance for much more.

  1. Ante Galic says:
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    Grey!!!!

    Wonderful SleeperS report!!

    a. These are all great pitchers I’d want. I’m a Belieber!

    b. Have a nice weekend.

    c. Subdued Norm MacDonald quote of the day for January 11

    Ford this week recalled two models of cars saying that they might explode during re-fueling. At Ford, quality is job 1 and job 2…making your car explode!

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Justin says:
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      @Ante Galic:

      Norm Macdonald? Grey doesn’t need inspiration from that hack. That’s like telling Billy Shakespeare to listen to some Chingy for inspiration.

  2. Fanciful Basesball says:
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    “But Grey,” he says with a look on his face that speaks of some combination of scorn and adoration, “the Indians depth chart says that Bieber is their…” he counts on his hands, rather than consulting an actual depth chart, while the sparkle in his eyes tells you he’s thinking about last year “…5th best pitcher!”

    What round(ish) are you looking to draft yo Biebo?

    • JRod

      JROD says:
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      @Fanciful Basesball: Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer, Clevinger… hard to get higher than 5th statter when that’s the other 4!

    • knucks says:
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      @Fanciful Basesball: I think the answer to this will prob be that his rankings start next week.

      But if it helps at all for right now, his NFBC ADP for the 25 drafts that occurred in the past month is #158.

  3. Joel says:
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    Hey Grey! I traded for Bieber a few months ago, so I’m happy to see this post. I’m a Belieber too! I’m in a keeper league, and I also have Laureano and Meadows. I’m trying to limit the number of sleepers, and may be able to trade Meadows for Mikolas. I’m thinking Mikolas is better now and Meadows is better long-term, but I’m in win-now mode with Bregman, Trea Turner, and Freeman contracts expiring this year. What do you think? Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Joel: I’d take Mikolas

  4. Dave D says:
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    Undoubtedly picks 155-175 is your “money spot” with 5 of your 6 SP sleepers coming from that range. Rounds 11-12 in the NFBC are now known as “Grey says grab your arms” rounds. If you miss out on those your last shot is Lucchesi. Choir meet gospel. Let us sing…

    • knucks says:
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      @Dave D: Great comment Dave!

      I think I may have seen you post the other day, but how many NFBCs you doing for 2019?

      • Dave D says:
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        @knucks:

        Probably five. Two DCs currently plus two satellites and one high stakes. I only like 15 team format. 12 team not challenging in the ways I like with the 15.

        How about you?

        • knucks says:
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          @Dave D: Last year was my first time with the NFBC and I did just one $50 4 Hour Draft. Placed 1st easily, thanks to Grey. So my plan is to maybe do 2 $50 drafts this year and start them around the same time that I did last year (last week of January). I’ll prob do a 4 Hour one. And then start a 2 Hour one when I get towards the back half of the 4 Hour draft.

          • knucks says:
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            @knucks: Other than that I’m busy beating chumps in a few ESPN leagues that I’ve been winning for a few years. Prob won’t have time for the RCL this year. I’d prefer to stay on just one or two platforms and the Fantrax switch was killing me last year

            • Dave D says:
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              @knucks:

              Why not set your sights a little higher with a $125 satellite league? Pays top 3.

              I try and use my previous years winnings and build upwards each year. If you enter three leagues and win one you still come out way ahead. You can invest more each year that way. Its fun.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Dave D: Haha, yeah, I’m grabbing some/most of them even before that point

  5. D Fresh says:
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    I hit refresh, just once tho

    • Huffin Gas says:
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      @D Fresh: I refreshed three more times. Grey is going to have enough to get himself a mega yacht by the end of the day. Soon he’ll be hangin with that other Bieber while hooked on cocaine and pastries. He’ll forget all about this website, Matthew Berry will take over, and then….woah this is getting out of control. Lets keep the refresh rate in control.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        I just bought a tugboat and had them write Huffin Gas on the side, will upgrade when I can afford it!

  6. Darek says:
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    12 team, keep 10, 6×6 with OPS and holds and QS instead of W league. In compete this year mode.

    Last two keeper choices are between Dahl, Ray, Dozier, Cruz, Andrus, Morton, Moustakas, Grandal. Other keepers are Trea Turner, Scherzer, Sale, JD, Starling Marte, Votto, Carpenter, Kenley Jansen. I have Garrett Hampson, Josh James and Danny Jansen as keepers in minors that I have pegged for roles (hopefully) this year.

    I feel good with SB with Turner and Marte and with Scherzer and Sale I feel like l could cobble together a pitching staff with late picks and streamers. No 2B and C kept but do have Hampson and Jansen as potential depth . Feel like power is a weakness with only JD as a true power threat.

    • knucks says:
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      @Darek: I’d prob go Cruz and Dahl. And maybe even Robbie Ray over Jansen.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Darek: Dahl and Cruz works for me

  7. knucks says:
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    Thought I would get carried away and track NFBC movement in the coming weeks. But the download is .tsv instead of .csv! What in the world… does anyone have a workaround?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @knucks: What on earth is a .tsv?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @knucks: Sounds Russian, beware!

      • knucks says:
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        @Grey: It spits it out into a pretty unusable Wordpad doc. Sucks.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Wordpad?! Is that a Geocities thing?

    • Dave D says:
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      @knucks:

      You can do it all easily with their tools once you are signed up for a team even if you have not drafted. For example you could look at all drafts since date “X” trade was announced and look at a players ADP since. I used that to weigh where to successfully draft Domingo Santana. May do same for one or two others.

      • knucks says:
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        @Dave D: I can do that right now without having paid for anything yet. It just doesn’t export into a clean excel. Are you able to do that?

  8. bigbear says:
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    I’m like a pimply pubescent teen with braces, “Ermahgerd! Eh LURV the Biebs!”

  9. Tony says:
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    Hey Grey
    12 team keep 8 standard head to head, prices increase by 3 dollars each year. who do you think? Thanks!
    arenado $20
    Lindor $14
    Freeman $27
    Bregman $11
    Benintendi $11
    Nola $19
    Springer $20
    Corbin $4
    Flaherty$5
    matt chapman $5
    Adalberto $5
    Dahl $5

    • Ante Galic says:
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      @Tony: Tony!

      My 0.02$. Some great choices, kudos for the great team. I’d drop the pitchers and Dahl but let’s hear as we always do from others and Grey of course.

      Cheers,
      Ante

    • knucks says:
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      @Tony: Whats the salary cap?

      • Tony says:
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        @knucks: $260 for 23 spots in total

    • Matthew Vandenbrand says:
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      @Tony:

      Arenado, Lindor, Freeman, Bregman, Benny, Nola, Corbin, Mondesi.

    • bigbear says:
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      @Tony: Think I’d go with Arenado, Lindor, Freeman, Bregman, Benintendi, Nola, Corbin, and a coin flip between Adalberto or Dahl.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Tony: Arenado, Lindor, Freeman, Bregman, Benintendi, Nola, Corbin, Adalberto

  10. knucks says:
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    In a rain shortened game, Biebs threw a 7 inning No-Hitter in his final start for the Clippers before being called up in May of last year.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @knucks: He’s ready!

  11. Donkey Teeth

    Donkey Teeth says:
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    Glad to see you’re a fellow belieber, Grey!

      • Donkey Teeth

        Donkey Teeth says:
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        @Grey: I liked Biebs before it was cool, back when he was still Canadian.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Busted! You bit torrent Canadian Idol

          • Donkey Teeth

            Donkey Teeth says:
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            @Grey: I’ll confess to that as long as the authorities agree to stay out of my search history

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              They’re already in there, man! (Donkey?)

  12. Matty says:
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    Thanks. He’s on my short list for cheap arms to try to obtain.
    Was thinking of throwing out an offer of Gary Sanchez for Biebs and Ed-Rod in a 2 catcher 6×6 dynasty. It would be a touch of salary savings and I’d finally be rid of Sanchez. Am I short changing myself?

    Still have Bauer for cheap(ish) following your guidance last year.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Matty: No problem! Don’t love that trade in a 2-catcher dynasty

  13. Gonzo says:
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    FML Grey! I keep 11 in an AL-Only, $260 auction budget, and could keep Jose Abreu for one more year, but at $26. I also have Tyler White to fill out my 1B for $10, can be kept for two more years. Given your spiel about 1B being shallow and sleepers being more valuable, would it be a smart strategy to balk on Abreu, keep White and shoot for a top 5 2B with the money saved?

    Here’s my other keepers (with roster holes to reflect where I’m hurting the most… I realize my team looks pretty brutal right now)
    C
    C
    1B
    2B
    3B Jose Ramirez ($41)
    SS Andrelton Simmons ($3)
    MI
    CI Rafael Devers ($20)
    OF Jake Bauers ($9)
    OF Stephen Piscotty ($8)
    OF
    OF
    OF
    DH Tyler White ($10)
    P Josh James ($10)
    P Collin McHugh ($10)
    P Jonathan Loaisiga ($1)
    P
    P
    P
    P
    P
    P

    • Gonzo says:
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      @Gonzo: McHugh is $7, my bad. Other potential (read: garbage) keepers include Brandon Lowe $1, Joe Jimenez $4 and Isiah Kiner-Falefa $5

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Gonzo! How’s it going, man? I don’t mind that as long as the Astros don’t go out and sign someone else to clog up White’s playing time

      • Gonzo says:
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        @Grey: Thanks! Living the dream man, this is for my office fantasy league and it’s filled with sharks (four guys have won the last 15 titles). I think taking the more affordable option at 1B will be my best bet. I hope the Astros are done signing!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Bunch of Baby Sharks! *song is now stuck in head for 48 hours*

  14. Matty says:
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    What’s the presiding consensus on Odor? Is he a post-post-post-post-hype sleeper type? Should we know better and accept that he’s a .240 guy who might hit a bunch of homers?
    I’m shocked every time I confirm that he’s only 24- I feel like he’s been getting our hopes up for a decade.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’ll go over him when I go over 2nd basemen next week

      • Matty says:
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        @Grey:
        You’re going to get that yacht with my constant refreshing from Friday end-of-business until the Monday morning kickoff of the official preseason. Trout- Betts- and some surprises.
        Have a good weekend.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha, thanks! You too!

  15. Sydney Fife says:
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    Grey,

    I’m looking for BIP% for pitchers, can’t seem to find it anywhere online. Might have to do my own calculations using other stats, but first wanted to see if you knew where i could find it/the formula to calculate it.

    Also, when you eval hitters, what is more alarming when it comes to plate discipline: O-Swing&contact % or Z-Swing&contact %?

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      2nd question 1st — Z-swing/contact%

      I’d try google on BIP%, not sure, sorry — baseball reference doesn’t have it?

      • Sydney Fife says:
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        @Grey: Yea i don’t see it on Baseball Reference, Fangraphs, etc. xStats has BIP, but i was hoping i could find league-wide numbers.

        (PA-HR-BB-K-HBP)/(PA) this is the formula i was able to find that can calculate BIP% but its from several years ago, not sure if the analytics community has updated.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Not sure, sorry

  16. TheTinDoor says:
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    To me, there’s one clear way to play pitching now:
    1) Buy an anchor. One of the top 5 guys, or maybe two guys ranked 10-20.
    2) Pay for two RPs w/ saves and ratios.
    3) Get 5-6 cheap starters with upside. You buy 5 “sleeper” starters, you’re almost guaranteed one hit (top 25 or so), and probably another solid starter. Combined with your stud & elite RPs, frees you up to do whatever the hell you want with the other spots.

    It seems almost simplistically obvious to me (i.e. wait-on-QB in football) but it’s not treated like that…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Would never draft a top 5 SP

      • TheTinDoor says:
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        @Grey: Knew that was coming. I think it’s wrong, but totally on brand!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I’ve done well with a much lower pitching split than 180/80 — don’t fix what ain’t broke

  17. The Great Knoche says:
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    The Yanks sign a Frenchman?

    When will they be signing Cargo? Let’s get all the old Rockies back together in the Bronx. Maybe they can sign Holliday in August. Perhaps talk Mike Hampton out of retirement?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Todd Helton has no interest in the hedonistic ways of New York

  18. Mike

    Mike says:
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    40,000 refreshes = $0.0004 USD correct?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Approximately

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Do your part, PM!

  19. OaktownSteve says:
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    Bieber is one of my favorite guys I looked at this way…sort of. From the scouting side, I love the mechanics. The arm is a little livelier and the fastball has more on it than I expected to see. Uses all his pitches, pitches with command to all the quadrants.

    Here’s the big butt…leaves a lot of fastballs in the hot zone. His hard hit against % was 43.9, which was tops by 2%. Hard hit rate isn’t everything. Some good pitchers towards the top of that list. However, I think numbers do show correlation between hard hits and BABIP (which would make sense). So the BABIP might not come all the way down.

    He’s got to keep fastballs off the center of the plate. The HR rate is too high and that hard hit rate is too high. The slider had a 29% whiff in September. Get over 30% and you’re in that very good pitch range, so he’s right there. Should throw it more. There’s so much to like here that if you project any positive changes in sequencing and pitch mix (he’s got quality pitches to play with), you could see a break out.

    I think he’s priced pretty fairly if you just want to go with his Steamer projections at around 160 over all. I thought he might have been a bit splashier than that and pushed up a bit higher.

    I guess he improves the HR against, but still gives up some loud hits/long innings. K rate stays about the same, ERA closer to mid 3s and a + for ratio.

    And, in a word, Albingo, “upside.”

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yes, total agreement! Have you looked at Brandon Woodruff, I considered him strongly for a sleeper post, couldn’t get full there yet

      • OaktownSteve says:
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        @Grey:

        He’s on my list too. I’ll check him out this weekend and we can compare notes next week.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Cool

  20. OaktownSteve says:
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    What time is Buy/Sell today?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, in about 12 weeks

      • @OaktownSteve: @Grey: still check about this time/day, all offseason. 1/2 wishful thinkin’ – 1/2 disturbed creature o’habit.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha

  21. Primetime says:
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    Trade Bauer or verlander for a 2nd rd pick? Or hold both
    We keep 7
    Rizzo
    Lindor
    Bellinger

    10 team league

    Scherzer
    Bauer
    Severino
    Verlander

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hold

  22. Nightpandas says:
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    We liking Hampson now with DJ off to the yanks?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I like him now that DJ, Lowrie and Beckham have signed… Starting to look good for him to get at-bats! (Fatal last words)

  23. papasmurf says:
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    Do you see Grandalf with meaningful bumps in stats next year in MIL? Probably should at least get more ABs right?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Nothing meaningful really, but he should be around a top 5 catcher… he’s decent, went over him two updates ago, I think

  24. Dave D says:
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    Well, since my update yesterday Ive made a few more pics that are boring but hopefully very useful:

    20-289 M. Fulmer
    21-312 R. Healy
    22-319 P. Strop
    23-342 K. Calhoun
    24-349 Ed. Nuñez

    Nothing exciting but like spreading cement

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Snooze! Kidding, solid picks that needed to be made

      • Dave D says:
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        @Grey:

        Seriously. Maybe I’ll have some sexy picks (not pics) in a few rounds to butter the bread.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          At least grab some margarine!

      • Dave D says:
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        @Grey: @Grey:

        The latest:
        25-372 J. Barria
        26-379 Hirano
        27-402 L. Brinson
        28-409 C. Kelly

        Decided to speculate with last two. Good upside. Last year duds=this year studs?

        I’m not convinced Bradley will be the closer either in AZ.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Love the Brinson pick… wow he went late!

          • Dave D says:
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            @Grey: Thx, yeah he showed flashes in September. He should get at bats so I hope by July he shows 20/15 potential. I chose him over M. Taylor who also seems a decent bet if Harper signs elsewhere.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Thinking Robles over Taylor for PT but it would be surprising if Taylor got no ABs

              • Dave D says:
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                @Grey:

                Jake Cave and Tyler Austin still available along with Taylor. I need another 1B but with Cron signing outlook seems worse for Austin.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Cron and Cruz killed Austin and Cave… But I’d try Austin if you want a flyer

  25. InferiorHippo says:
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    Hey Grey! Really looking forward to your rankings… quick question for my dynasty league:

    Khris Davis with 2 years of control left for Eugenio Suarez with 4 years of control, who do you like?

    Right now i have Trout, JD, Acuna and Peralta at OF as well as Khris with no 3b…

    Thanks so much and hope you had a nice and relaxing offseason!

    -Hippo

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks! You too! Eugenio

  26. Uncle Ernie says:
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    Hi Grey hope your winter has been good to you. Comparing Middle infielders. Seager and Correa. Which one do you like the best this year? Highest upside. Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      You too, Uncle Ernie! My rankings come out next week

      • Uncle Ernie says:
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        @Grey: looking forward to it! Looking at a trade now though. Lol. Gotta lean Correa in that line up right

  27. Syllogism says:
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    Well … a little winter ball from Canada here. Hope you are warm and snowless. :P

    * Dynasty … Yahoo … 20 teams … roster 30 … keep 26. (In-Season 5 DL, 5 NA)
    * 6×6 …. HR, R, RBI, SB, OBP, SLG —- W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP, K/BB
    * Have to cut this mess down to 26 just before our draft close to opening day

    C Posey
    1B Morales
    2B Merrifield
    3B Yuli Gurriel
    SS Blech … Asdrubal (see BN)
    IF Hampson
    LF Braun
    CF LoCain
    RF McCutcheon
    OF Blackmon
    UT Choo
    BN T Kemp
    BN Miggy
    BN Aledmys (likely cut)
    BN Kendrick (likely cut)
    BN Danny Jansen
    BN Daniel Robertson
    Bn Dubon

    SP Scherzer
    SP Hendricks
    SP JA Happ
    SP Jon Gray
    SP Ryu
    RP W Davis
    RP Allen
    RP C Green
    RP Rosenthal
    BN Anibal
    BN Borucki
    BN Erv “Where’s My Year” Santana
    BN Hunter Havey
    BN Widener
    BN Sherfy
    BN Chase D Jong
    BN Dunning

    Okay … clearly too much age. Kinda went all-in last year and well … tomorrow is another year.

    Trade Evaluations
    Trea Turner + Eaton + Madbum … for my … Scherzer + Hendricks + Merrifield
    … Turner owner has a death grip on Turner … lol. Frankly, my gut tells me I’m giving too much. Which side do you like? How close is it?

    Charlie Morton + Schebler + Cahill … for my … McCutcheon + Jon Gray
    … I’m not a big fan of Schebler … not really thrilled with this deal either, but I may have some bias here. I like the Morton end … despite age. Which side do you like?

    I’ve really gone off of Kyle Seager. I know he had the broken toe last year, but it’s been two years of Not-K-Seager. Do you see him as SINKING … Staying Afloat … Recovering?

    Ya, I know … a lotta noise, my posts. Your thoughts appreciated.

    • Syllogism says:
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      @Syllogism:
      Oops .. and lastly … which (if any) do you see pre-draft keeper-worthy upside to …
      Pearson … Widener … Dunning … Harvey … De Jong … Dunning … Dubon

      Thx again. :)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Good to see you! Too much for Trea… Morton side, but kinda meh… Kyle Seager is sinking…

  28. Syllogism says:
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    Thanks sir grey!

    No noteworthy keep-now value to any of … Pearson … Widener … Dunning … Harvey … Chase de Jong … Dunning … Dubon?

    I’m leaning towards Widener and maybe Dunning.

    Man, I’m pumped about the season … omg .. in January. I need help.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, keep them, why not? You don’t have room?

  29. Harley Earl says:
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    Grey,

    Fantastic work on Biebs. You’ve got me convinced. Big question for you though. One for one trade, which side do you want … Luis Castillo or The Biebs.

    I’m torn. Help me oh great one with the ’70s pornstache.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      They’re nearly equal… I’d like go Castillo, but depends on wind blowing

      • Harley Earl says:
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        @Grey: Thank you sir!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  30. Brian says:
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    Made my first trade of the offseason, trading the equivalent 220th pick for Jonathon Villar and the 298th pick(it’s a deep dynasty league) based on your sleeper post, so thanks!

    Was wondering if I should trade Javier Baez for Chris Sale? Would leave my infield as Votto, Villar, Suarez, and Andrus and I already have Kluber and Carrasco. Having Baez means I basically have a backup at all my IF positions except 1B, but I’m pretty sure Sale will be more valuable.

    Swing this trade or hold?

    • metros says:
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      you like gallo this year?

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Yes

    • metros says:
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      you like gallo this year?

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        I do

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d want Baez

      • Brian says:
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        Interesting. Thanks!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  31. Mikey says:
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    Meant to ask in the Pivetta post…. would you trade Mikolas for Pivetta? Contract and salary is the same.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Works for me if the league is right for it, but way more risk with Pivetta

  32. primetime says:
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    Grey, where do you rank Bregman this season?

    Trying to get him in a trade.

    He is better then Rizzo, Bellinger or Lindor?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’ll be releasing rankings this week

  33. Test Kitchen says:
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    Grey,

    Which side do you prefer in an OBP/SLG keeper league?

    Acuna
    Hoskins
    Haniger

    For

    Manny
    JD
    Springer

    Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Tough call, I’d likely go Acuna if keeper

  34. Brett says:
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    Grey,

    I sorry for the long post, but I need some initial thoughts with selecting who to keep this year. 12 team 6×6 (OPS and holds are the extra categories) 260 auction budget. We can keep 5. Here are the rules for keepers. Drafted players can be kept the year after they are drafted (year 2) at their draft price. In year 3 they can be kept at the draft price and then lost or can be contracted for up to 4 years and their price increases $5 each year. IE player drafted in 2017 for $10 can be kept in 2018 for $10 then in 2019 can be kept for $10 and lost at seasons end or can give a contract say 3 years. The new price will be $15 for 2019 then 20 in 2020 and 25 in 2021. If you break a contract you lose half of the last year of contract price from your current auction budget. In this league you can keep free agents for $5 or FAAB price whichever is more only the year after picked up then they are lost.

    All players I am looking to keep were drafted and I’m really struggling after re-listening to the first 2 round podcast you did in the fall with Ralph.

    Here are my options:

    Machado 34 (he is under contract and his contract goes through next season where he costs 39)
    Benitendi 11 (This is year 3 so if I keep I can keep him at this price and lose him or I can contract him)
    Acuna 17 (Drafted last year so this is his hold year)
    Baez 13 (Drafted last year so this is his hold year)
    Albies 5 (Drafted last year so this is his hold year)
    Snell 3 (Drafted last year so this is his hold year)

    Here are some comps on players drafted last year.
    Darvish 21
    DeGrom 27
    Sale 42
    Carrasco 34
    Bregman 27

    Marte 20
    Donaldson 27
    Trout 69
    Bryant 34
    Altuve 67

    I was hoping to ask this after Machado signed and before you get tons of ?’s with rankings. I prefer hitters over pitching as I am an active owner and try to find pitching. This strategy tends to work as I tend to be one of the top teams consistently in the league. Last year pitching went for lots of money, but I grabbed Buehler and Flaherty to help win the league. I also feel starters only get you 4 categories with not helping in saves and holds while hitters help in 6. Lastly, for long term I don’t like to contract pitchers as they get hurt too often. With all of this I need help.

    1 Who would you initially plan on keeping?
    2 Would you try to move machado to keep 2-6 if you can? If you can’t move him is he worth cutting and taking a $19 auction penalty this year to keep the rest?
    3 If you keep Benitendi how long would you contract him for?

    Thanks again!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      So you keep 5 and you gave me 6 to choose from? If correct, I’d toss back Albies… Not sure who else you could toss back there… If you can move Machado for a 1st round pick and keep other five, then I’d do that… Benintendi I’d keep for as long as I could, he’s young and not going anywhere barring injury…So I guess 4 years

      • brett says:
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        @Grey: Correct. Those are the 6 I’m choosing from to get my 5. Just wasn’t sure what’s the best value. Thanks!

  35. Perplexed in the great white north says:
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    I really appreciate the later round SP sleepers. I usually keep one solid starter and fill up with 2-3 later round gems. Last year I nabbed Clevinger in Rd 14. This year I’m in a bit of a pickle and won’t be keeping much pitching. I love the suggestions of Biebs & ERod and I had Heaney last year – a little rocky but I wouldn’t hesitate to pick him up again. Lucchesi was off my radar but I’ll be in on him if he’s available late too.

    As far as keepers go I’m stupefied, I thought I would never do this but…

    7 keepers 16 team Yahoo 10×10 cat league including most standard categories; extras include BB Ks OPS for batters and RWins Holds K/9 Whip for the pitching side.

    Must keep are Acuna, TTurner, Rizzo and Carrasco

    3 spots left for Abreu, G.Sanchez, Conforto, Vlad, Clevinger, Adalberto, E. Saurez, J. Hader, Villar, E. Jiminez

    I know Darth Hader is ranked like a throwaway but that’s for standard 5×5; with a 15+/9 k rate and adding meat to both Holds and Saves not to mention RWs he was a top 15 performer in our league last year.

    If I had to pick right now it would likely be Guerrero, Mondesi and Conforto ( seeing as Vlad @3rd would reduce the need for Saurez as well as Conforto and Saurez dramatically heading in opposite directions by the end of last season) while keeping an eye on Mr. Sanchez during the spring.

    Please shed some light oh wise wizard.

    (Looks from side to side – jams message into Astromech droid)

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