When I started my research for Tyler Glasnow, I wanted to ease into it like your jeans from high school.  You don’t jump in.  First, you let out the waist twelve inches.  So, I thought a nice way to let out the inseam on Glasnow would be looking up the Pirates’ pitching coach, Ray Searage.  I Googled “Ray Searage genius” because I wanted a good laugh.  Don’t judge me, while I judge Ray Searage.  First, I needed to tell Google ‘genius’ had to be included, then I sorted by results from prior to 2018 vs. this year.  4,290 results vs. 5, and four of those five were people forgetting the sport and spelling their hockey team, the Pittsburgh Pengenius.  Most of the results morphed like this:  How great Searage was with Ivan Nova and Liriano and Edinson Volquez vs. a lot of cursing for what the hell did Searage do to pull on the reins of Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow.  Of course, I don’t know how much Searage played into giving the okay for Glasnow to be traded, but trading a guy who throws 97 MPH, has a K/9 of 11 and is only 25 years old, should be against the law.  Maybe Ray Searage is the pitcher whisperer, but the pitchers need to be over the age of 30, and Glasnow just had too much promise.  (Being so unfair to Searage right now!)  Maybe there’s only room for one genius in Pittsburgh, and it’s on the ice and it’s a dyslexic Pengenius.  (By the way, whoever decided to make a word for people who struggle to spell as complicated as dyslexic is a real bastard.)  So, what can we expect from Tyler Glasnow for 2019 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

First off, the 11 K/9 and 97 MPH alone have me standing with a mop between my legs screaming, giddy up!  As you may have heard from literally everyone who has said anything about baseball in the last year, there’s a lot of strikeouts.  Everyone is right.  Yet — again with some stank — YET! Glasnow was still the 12th best strikeout pitcher.  Whatever, you say, because you like to hurt my feelings.  Whatever, doode?!  Out of the top 18 K-rates, Glasnow easily has the worst ERA.  This is important because if you’re striking out guys at that high of rate, it’s very hard for hitters to get on and make a dent.  His 3.47 xFIP was nearly a run lower than his ERA (4.27).  Glasnow’s big issue is his control (4.27 BB/9).  By the way, Tim Kurkjian is making dolphin noises somewhere because Glasnow’s walk rate and xFIP are exactly the same.  If Glasnow can keep his K/9 and lower his walk rate to only 3.5, he will be a top 20 starter.  I feel like this is so similar to when I called Blake Snell a sleeper last year.  No, I’m not saying Glasnow will be a Cy Young guy this year — Could he?  Well… But I don’t think Glasnow gets enough innings in 2019; he’s never thrown more than 155 1/3 IP in any season, and that was between a stop in the minors and majors two years ago, so he’ll likely top out around 160 IP, if he stays healthy all year.  Can he lower his walk rate though?  Does a bear crap in the woods and say, “I really should build myself an outhouse.”  Glasnow had a 3.1 BB/9 in 93 1/3 IP in Triple-A.  He just needs to repeat that.  Last year, he added a slider, and it was his most effective pitch, but he only threw it 1.1% of the time, relying heavily on the fastball and curve.  Of course, adding a new pitch like a slider that he admitted he couldn’t control yet was going to wreck havoc on his command.  If he throws the slide piece maybe 5-10% of the time with proper mechanics on all his pitches, cutting out inconsistency, then *whistles* hot damn.  He feels like a guy who you say, “It’s not whether or not he’ll break out, but when.”  I’m betting it’s this year.  For 2019, I’ll give Tyler Glasnow the projections of 10-8/3.68/1.23/182 in 158 IP with a chance for much more.

  1. Harley Earl says:
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    My league has walks as a category to provide balance for guys that just grab starters with high K ratios. It really makes our league challenging because you have to pile up the strikeouts but you can’t have guys walking 3 or 4 or 5 guys in a game. I like what you have to say about Glasnow, but until he brings that walk rate down significantly, his value is much less in my league. Maybe that means it’s a good time to trade for him before he finds that control and becomes a legit boss? Hmmmmmmmmmmmm.

  2. jack florida says:
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    happy new year

    here’s to more great info for the up coming season

  3. Dave D says:
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    Thank you, Grey! Incredible write-up. As you know I have already bought in on GlasNOW!!! Did you know is initials are T.A.G. as in “TAG, you’re it!!!” I will try and own him everywhere. I’m hoping your next post is on Nick Pivetta. I look to you for confirmation bias.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Dave D: Thanks! I used to own a TAG watch, I will not hold that against him or myself…

  4. The Eye of Horus says:
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    Grey-
    Happy New Year and thank you. In a dynasty league, how would you assess Glasnow, Bundy, Luis Castillo, and Giolito? Four pitchers one has high hopes for, and are just one or two changes away from being solid. Who is closest to becoming a solid SP1/2 in the next 2 years?

    Also, any other pitchers in a similar situation? Reynaldo Lopez?

    Many thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @The Eye of Horus: Happy New Year! Castillo, Glasnow…….Bundy, Giolito… 1st 2 aren’t close to last two… 2 years is a far way away for a pitcher…

      • Big Ticket says:
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        @Grey: Do you have any deeper analysis of Castillo already done or coming up? Decreased walks was great, but seems like regression almost everywhere else.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I will go over every pitcher during the rankings

          • Big Ticket says:
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            @Grey: Does that mean no sleeper post for Castillo this year?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              He’s not getting one this year

              • Harley Earl says:
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                @Grey: But Grey, this is what makes Luis a sleeper!

                You seem down on him despite his obvious improvements again in the second half. Most people will be down on him too because he didn’t live up to the unrealistic expectations of Phenom Ace straight from Double-A to the Majors last year. So it took him a little longer to adjust, which most players have to do in their second season.

                This is the PERFECT time for Castillo to be considered a sleeper.

                Now, Don’t you go falling asleep on my boy Luis!!

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  I seem down on who? Castillo? I’m not down on him… I wrote a sleeper post for Castillo last year, just don’t feel like doubling up… Keep shizz fresh…

      • Bundy's dad says:
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        Bundy really?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I didn’t realize his father was here, wasn’t trying to hurt anyone’s feelings…

  5. Joe shmoe says:
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    Happy new year again, mr. Grey.
    So kikuchi signs with Seattle. Seattle pitching always is awful. Does this mean kikuchi inherits the suck too?
    Peace

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Joe shmoe: Ha, I saw that… Happy New Year!

  6. Gator says:
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    Happy New Year! Need hitting and looking to move Severino. Is Ozuna a fair return?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Gator: Sounds fair

  7. Joel says:
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    Happy New Year, Grey! I have Glasnow in a keeper league and have a few options… would you keep him over David Dahl in the last round? Or how about Glasnow over Josh Hader in the 19th round (Saves+Holds is a category)? Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d want Dahl and Hader

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      And happy new year!

  8. Crime Dog says:
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    Let me just point out his walk rate was only 3.07 on the rays

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      It’s already coming down!

  9. Jim B Crouse says:
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    Happy New Years Grey, I’m in an auction league where we can retain 10 players. I have Glasnow for $3 or Jimmy Nelson for $2 what are your thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d go Glasnow — might depend on league size, but prolly not

  10. DonnieB says:
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    Happy New Year….would you want Eduardo Rodriquez, Hamels or JA Happ? Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Tough call, I think Happ, but still doing pitcher rankings

  11. Ante Galic says:
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    Grey!!!!

    Fantastic SleeperS report!

    a. Man I love Glasnow too. Had him in my RCL. If he repeats what he did last year I’d be happy. If he improves? I’d be giddy!

    b. Happy New Year! All the best of health, heart and happiness for you and all those you hold near and dear!

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Happy new year, Ante! All the best to you and yours too!

  12. jack florida says:
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    since we are at a little slow time–here are my top 5 movies for 2018, also would like to see your list
    1—green book
    2—juliet naked
    3—boy erased
    4—the favourite
    5—can you ever forgive me?

    any hot tv shows you are watching? just finished jack ryan and goliath season 2, sneaky pete next

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Green book was great, watched last night… think it’s in my top 5… the favourite was my favorite… I liked Won’t You Be My Neighbor too…and First Man… I might be forgetting one… did you ever watch Fauda on Netflix?

      • jack florida says:
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        @Grey: i will check out Fauda

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Think you’ll like it… I heard good things about Isle of Dogs too, but it was from Cougs and her taste sometimes is iffy…

  13. Nightpandas says:
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    Happy new year Grey!

    Hope all is well

    Thoughts on Morton this year…worth trading my Senzel for him in a 15 team keep 11 obp and qs k/9 league?

    • Nightpandas says:
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      @Nightpandas:

      Also Gary Sanchez or Gleybar Torres as a keeper in the same league

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Gleyber

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Happy New Year! I don’t trust Morton at all…

  14. Evan says:
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    So glad to be back. Happy New Year and thanks is for all your hard work and free content! May your traffic numbers triple this year. Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t his value get even greater with RP eligiblity in CBS? That a lot of production out of that spot. Pivetta sleeper post coming?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Happy New Year! Yup on RP and Pivetta!

      • Dave D says:
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        @Grey:

        Ah, so you are indeed doing Pivetta. Well, I’m glad to know 2 of my first 3 SP picked are GA’s sleepers. That’s better than snoozers.

        I’m undecided on my NFBC league sign ups. I’m leaning toward doing one more DC, a high stakes and maybe a cheap satellite. Top three place, so even if you get 2nd or 3rd that can be good. Although my wife would be pretty pissed if I forked out 2.5 or 5k and didn’t bring home some bacon. I’m not a fan of the main event format. Too low a league prize for me at $1700 entry if you don’t place top 50.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Love me some Pivetta, yeah… What’s the league prize on main event with no top 50?

          • Dave D says:
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            @Grey:

            Its 7k league prize, 2nd $3400, 3rd $1700. Actually only top 15 overall get $$$.

            Super league by contrast is $2500 entry and wins 20k, 2nd is 7.5k, 3rd 5k. I made my entry fee back +2500 in my lone high stakes foray a coupke years back. They used to have a 1k satellite that paid out 8k but now jumps from $500 league to $2500 for some reason.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              7K sounds decent, but at $1,700 entry? That’s crazy… Show me the $!

              • Dave D says:
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                @Grey:

                Yeah, seriously. The high stakes/satellite are solid on return.

                Btw, you are so right about other people’s overly conservative predictions/forecast. I looked up Pivetta and Glasnow. Steamer has Pivetta getting only 5 more IP this year and like 20 FEWER strikeouts. Glasnow only 21 more IP and 20ish more K’s. I think not. Your forecasts seem to have more common sense even if we all have to guess to some degree or another.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yeah, I noticed this when I was randomly looking up Samardzija’s 2019 projections… If a guy has done something once, projections quickly say he will do it again no matter how awful he’s been in the past, and if a guy has never done something, projections never take any leap forward that a guy can do it… Projections, for the most part, are telling you what a guy did previously with a slight tweak…

  15. DonnieB says:
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    What are your thoughts on Orlando Arcia? Seemed to finish year well and hit a couple HRs in playoffs? Do you trust him as your middle infielder in a 15 team league where you wait until 21st round? Over someone like Lowe or Lowrie? Thanks as always.

  16. Lougle says:
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    Happy New Year! I have Syndergaard and Clevinger in my rotation. 14 team Roto with standard 5×5 categories. Would you pay up for another SP Top 30 or go diving in the $2-$3 range to fill out a rotation? Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      There’s no in-between with $12-15 pitchers?

  17. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    Happy New Year! Grey and razznatìon.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Happy New Year!

  18. The Great Knoche says:
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    You weren’t kidding when you said Glasnow was coming.

    Interesting early ADP stuff so far. Yelich and Acuna both going ahead of Arenado in the first round. I’m all about the MVP, and ACuan being Betts 2.0, but I can’t see myself taking them ahead of Nolan who I am sure about what I am getting. Especially in a contract year.

    18-22 has some really interesting names some of which I would have thought would be higher. Judge, Story, Goldy, Freeman, Giancarlo in that order. Think I’d want Freeman, Goldy first for the better chance of higher average. They are all also behind Altuve who I wouldn’t want before any of these guys after last year.

    Whit Merrifield at 31. Whit Merrifield…. Dude turns 30 this year, think he’s gonna steal 45 again? OR have a BABIP 40 points above his career average in the majors/minors. Look what happened to Altuve at age 28, and he’s on a good team.

    Vlad Jr going one spot behind Rizzo at 37. He should be up 2 weeks into the season, but he’s going 20 spots ahead of where Acuna did last year. Granted Acuna would have been top 30 had he been healthy all year.

    Can’t wait for the rankings to start arguing with everyone. Mostly J-FOH.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Interesting stuff! Rizzo vs. Vlad I don’t get, and I think Vlad’s got too much helium, as they say… Acuña has speed and power… Vlad has power and average? Bleh… I mean, he’s fine, but not at that price

  19. Kevin Streine says:
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    Sir,
    First, Happy New Year.
    I have to chose between keeping Tyler Glasnow or Carlos Martinez. I can only keep 4 SP and am going with Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Gerrit Cole as my first 3. Any thought greatly appreciated.
    Thank you.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Happy New Year! Gotta go C-Mart

      • Kevin Streine says:
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        @Grey:
        Thank you much!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  20. Chad says:
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    Great write up – TAG was on my radar but pulled off a trade with your help. Got Corbin and JJames for Mazara and Bird. Full dynasty! Thoughts? Happy New Years!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks! Happy New Year! I would’ve taken Corbin there too…

  21. John says:
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    Grey,
    Just wanted to say i love your site and i prefer your rankings over any other site…. Some serious man love going on here, although i admit i’m married…dont tell my wife lol. . My hitters are set i think…who would you draft in first round? Ottoneau scoring H2H pts league 10 keepers no penalty plus 5 milb (qualifying)

    current keepers:
    Bellinger
    Altuve
    Lindor
    Arenado
    Judge
    Soto
    Acuna
    Bauer
    Verlander
    Degrom

    Here are the top SP’s available in the draft:

    Clevinger
    Luis Castillo
    Glasnow
    Marquez
    Wheeler
    Freeland
    Heaney
    Wood
    Urena

    Thanks in advance!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, thanks! Clevinger, Marquez, Wheeler…

      • John says:
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        @Grey: Clevinger is a gimmee but i’m suprised you would take Marquez and Wheeler over Castillo and Glasnow? Any quick comment as to why?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Aw geez, comments will be out in full with rankings…

          • John says:
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            @Grey: ugh….your such a drag Grey…what do you think this is your own special site or something where you get to decide when to bless us with your gift of fantasy baseball knowledge…. :)

  22. mc2Rumba says:
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    What up Grey, good stuff as always. Hope your 2019 is most excellent.

    Quick note on Glasnow’s use of the slider…he described it as being real similar to his curveball and it’s actually tracked similarly, too. Lo and behold, per Fangraphs his “slider” was actually thrown 11.4% of the time in 2018 vs 16.4% for his curve. Also threw the slider 8.9% with PIT and 14.2% with TB, so he already blew past the 5-10% you eluded to, which is exciting.

    Between elevating his FB and utilizing his slider more, while still mixing in that plus curve…we’re talking S-E-X-Y.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Same to you! That’s good to know! Thanks! Very sexy!

Comments are closed.