Hiyo, whaddup, it’s ya boy, Grey Albright, the King of Swing!  Swing standing, of course, for a Swiss National Guard.  See, I got this certificate with my Swatch watch–Any hoo!  Today is the top 60 starters for 2019 fantasy baseball.  You think we’re late into the rankings here, but last year this post included Blake Snell, Jameson Taillon, Patrick Corbin, Trevor Williams, Mike Clevinger and Ryu as guys I told you to draft.  In this post alone, you might be able to put together a pitching staff.  Let’s do this!  Here’s Steamer’s 2019 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2019 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers.  All projections listed are mine and I mention where I see tiers starting and stopping.  Anyway, here’s the top 60 starters for 2019 fantasy baseball:

41. Rick Porcello – This tier started in the top 40 starters for 2019 fantasy baseball.  This tiers ends at Ryu.  I called this tier, “Sideways bosom.”  As for Porcello, there’s only one letter separating boring from boing, which is how I feel about Porcello.  He walks a fine line between boring and boing.  All of these guys really.  Maybe I should’ve named this tier that, but when you’re deciding between boring/boing and sideways bosom, you go sideways bosom.  2019 Projections: 13-8/3.92/1.22/194 in 201 IP

42. Chase Anderson – This is wild.  Here’s what I said last year, “Confessional!  *aims camcorder at funky chair in front of funky wall, sits in chair*  Hey, so we just got home from DA CLUB, and Cassie has been bugging me all night.  I think we’re gonna need a roommate meeting.  Also, I didn’t expect to like Chase Anderson this year.  Steamer hates him, and, while I don’t listen to everything Steamer says, they are the best projections in the business, so it would be foolish to not at least–COULD YOU BE QUIET OUT THERE, I’M DOING MY CONFESSIONAL!  Sorry, Malliq got crazy drunk and is actin’ a fool.  Where was I?  Anderson!  Right!  Steamer projects him for 4.91 ERA.  Um, okay.  *mimes walking out of the room*  Don’t want that, right?  I hear ya, but his velocity went up by two miles per hour, and the changes look legit from when he was a 6.5 K/9 to a 8.5 K/9 guy.  Okay, I’m gonna go see if Malliq cleaned the dishes yet.  Peace.”  And that’s me quoting me!  So, turned out Steamer and I were both right.  More right than Malliq, at least.  Geez, that guy!  I was right because Anderson is way better than a 4.91 ERA pitcher (his ERA was 3.93 last year).  Steamer was right because his Ks did come back down.  This year, Steamer’s back to its old tricks and he’s projecting a 4.97 ERA.  Not sure whose calculator Anderson slept with, but 4.97 ERA is as absurd a projection as 4.91 was last year. UPDATE: Out of the rotation, don’t draft him.  2019 Projections:  11-9/3.84/1.22/154 in 178 IP

43. Rich Hill – A Hill is more like a single sideways bosom that’s made sideways again.  A naturally recurring sideways bosom?  Hmm, I think I’m lost in this analogy, and I never want to find my way out.  Also, what I say in Ryu’s blurb below.  2019 Projections: 9-5/3.26/1.10/145 in 128 IP

44. Hyun-Jin Ryu – Two things about this tier:  Every pitcher in this tier could be called is a solid bet for 7+ K/9 and 3 or lower BB/9, which is a safe, and reliable option. And, if you don’t look at every number 3 as a sideways bosom, I’ve failed you.  Now, with that said (Grey’s turning this ship around), Ryu and Rich Hill have higher upside than a 7+ K/9 and 3 or lower BB/9, but they also struggle to stay healthy for 120 innings.  In the end, similar value as other guys in this tier, but in fewer innings.  2019 Projections:  9-4/2.98/1.08/122 in 131 IP

45. Nick Pivetta – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Kikuchi.  I call this tier, “Drinking fizzy drinks that lift you off the ground.”  By this tier name I mean, there’s risk in drinking fizzy-lifting drinks, you might run your head into a ceiling fan, but, without drinking those fizzy-lifting drinks, you’ll never know what it’s like to fly like Charlie and his grandfather in Willy Wonka.  The pitchers in this tier are risky, but they have big time upside.  I’ll go over at a later point on how to draft a pitching staff, but, unless you were born yesterday, you can tell this is around a fantasy number three but with a lot more risk than the previous tier.  Even maybe a fantasy number four.  If you were born yesterday, you have amazing reading comprehension.  I don’t know why the cliché “born yesterday” is meant as a dig to say someone is easily manipulated, when clearly if you were born yesterday and found yourself doing anything other than napping for 22 hours, I’m impressed by you!  As for Pivetta, I already gave you a Nick Pivetta sleeper.  It was written while giving “The Talk” to a random kid at a bus stop.   2019 Projections: 12-9/3.86/1.25/208 in 184 IP

46. Yusei Kikuchi – Here’s what I said this offseason, “(Kikuchi) signed with the Mariners.  He reminds me of every other Japanese pitcher, but not in a raycess way.  He reminds me of Miles Mikolas too, who was only Asian after being reborn.  It’s something about Asian pitchers, and non-Asian pitchers who go to Asia and return; they exercise some serious control.  Maybe it’s the culture.  I had a robot watch Gung Ho 15,000 times and tell me what it thinks and now the robot is speaking super-racist.  Yo, robot, why are you so culturally inappropriate?  “I have no culture of my own, so I adopt yours.  And I kill puppies.”  AHHH!!!  ROBOT MURDERER!!!  RUN!!!  Or roll your swivel chair towards a door if running is too much for you.  Kikuchi, which is going to be fun for me to say this year, comes with a lot less fanfare than Ohtani, but I do think he can be better than him, pitching-wise, in his first full season.  Ohtani is a unicorn in Babe Ruth’s body, we all know this.  Kikuchi reminds me of Mikolas and Ryu and others in that mold.  He’s a decent strikeout guy, but not blown people away, while also having impeccable command.  I’m definitely looking to draft him this year, then passing him up every other year when he fails to throw 130 IP in consecutive seasons because the Japanese also completely overwork their starters.  In fact (Grey’s got more!), the Mariners have already said Kikuchi will only throw an inning or so every fifth or sixth start to try to preemptively avoid the inevitable arm injury that befalls every Japanese starter.”  And that’s me quoting me! 2019 Projections: 9-7/3.67/1.18/136 in 151 IP

47. Kyle Freeland –  This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Gausman.  I call this tier, “Girls hit your hallelujah (whoo).”  That’s a line from a Bruno Mars song that if you heard it, you can’t unhear it, and it will dig into your psyche until you’re singing it too.  That’s this tier.  All of these guys who’ve heard about before, and you have faint sense they’re good, and, whether you like them or not, you’re drafting them because you know their names.  They are all ear worms, and not in a good way.  As for Freeland, fully expected to like Freeland this year, but when I started to dig into his numbers, my excitement did a spit take with vomit.  Yes, his K/9 and BB/9 fit nicely in the tier above that was loaded with 7+ K/9 and 3-ish BB/9 guys, but he’s in Coors.  I know, no dur, but that takes the shine off him and no good Freeland goes unpunished.  2019 Projections:  10-11/3.92/1.34/156 in 189 IP

48. Alex Wood – Here’s what I said this offseason,”(Wood was) the 3rd (2nd?) piece in the Reds/Dodgers trade.  By the way, I was going through the Reds’ depth chart, and I found the Reds have a guy named Fidel Castro in their minor leagues.  If he ever plays against the Yankees, he better watch out for exploding cigars.  From a real baseball standpoint, the Reds did a positive just getting rid of Homer Bailey.  They could’ve sent Bailey and a billion dollars to the Dodgers and it would’ve been a win.  As for Wood, though, well, Cincy is not going to be a friendly place for him.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2019 Projections:  8-10/3.89/1.26/142 in 162 IP

49. Yu Darvish – We are going deep in a sub-section of a tier I could call, “Cubs are contenders?  Are you sure about that, because their pitching seems more dicey than a Ginzu knife.”  As for Yu… “Siri, what do we think about Yu?”  “Your feelings for me are complicated.”  “You know me so well.”  2019 Projections:  9-10/3.81/1.31/144 in 128 IP

50. Mike Foltynewicz – Like Wheeler, he also saw an increase in his velocity and looks now like the pitcher he was always meant to be.  I know what you might be thinking, because I’m thinking it too.  This ranking is high.  Don’t worry if the price is too richnewicz for you to draft him, there’s about fifteen guys who could be next year’s Foltynewicz to draft later.  Every year there’s 15.  No more, no less.  I keed, but, yes, there’s lots of guys to draft later, so no fear, Mr. Belvedere, who missed a week of work because he sat on his testicles.  UPDATE:  Turns out Faultywirewitz’s wires are faulty, after all.  He’s missing the beginning of the season, and, at this point, we have no idea if that means he’ll return by Cinco de Mayo or a day much later than that in the calendar year when you will just be eating mayo.   I’ve removed 50 IP from his projections and removed him from the pitchers’ pairings, i.e., I’m no longer drafting him.  2019 Projections:  11-8/3.57/1.13/151 in 147 IP

51. Jon Lester – Did I purposely put all the Cubs’ starters together?  Yeah, dude, there’s some intention to these rankings.  Could I have put Alex Wood between the Cubs starters and it would’ve been the same diff?  Yup, we’re in a tier I’m ignoring in drafts so if they were rearranged, it wouldn’t matter.  As for Lester, Google “Saberhagenmetrics” and learn about that field of baseball mathematics, because it applies here.  2019 Projections: 12-9/4.06/1.32/156 in 176 IP

52. Jose Quintana – Somewhere around this point in the rankings I started laughing thinking about how many starters I wanted no part of.  Here’s something I’ve mentioned before and will mention again at some point.  You need around six starters for your fantasy team, depending on the league depth, and might be able to get by with as few as two or three.  So, I will rank about 140 starters, and you can dislike 134 of them, as long as you draft the correct six.  People don’t seem to get nervous about outfielders, maybe because you have other hitters on your team, but if you don’t have a solid fourth or fifth outfielder, no one cares.  You figure you’ll get it off waivers.  However, with starters, everyone is so scared.  If people don’t have a quality fourth, fifth or sixth starter, panic sets in.  Yet, there’s always starters on waivers.  As for Quintana, bleh, you know him!  2019 Projections: 11-11/4.12/1.28/169 in 182 IP

53. Jon Gray – It takes a special kind of son of a bitch to have a 9+ K/9 and 2-something BB/9 and get on my Do Not Draft list, but Gray is just that son of a bitch.  Apologies to all mothers reading, except my mother.  You created this monster!  As in me.  I’m the monster.  And this other Gray.  2019 Projections:  9-10/4.24/1.34/191 in 178 IP

54. Sean Newcomb – His 2nd half ERA makes me lie to passing strangers and tell them I am crying because I was just cutting onions.  I know, I know, ERAs are dumb, but Newcomb’s 2nd half ERA was dumb terrible and so was his xFIP for the 2nd half, and even more alarming, so was his 1st half xFIP.  Without luck, Newcomb wouldn’t have had any kind of decent 1st half either.  *makes kaboom sound and universal sign of a mushroom cloud with my hands*  Newcomb.  2019 Projections:  9-12/4.09/1.35/177 in 182 IP

55. Kevin Gausman – Yes, we are risking not being in on Gausman when he finally breaks out.  We’re also reaping the benefits of not owning him for the fifth straight year of sub-par stats while we wait for him to breakout.  Enjoyed the ride, Gausman.  You did me more wrong than most, but not as much as Pineda.  2019 Projections:  10-9/4.18/1.31/177 in 183 IP

56. Tyler Skaggs – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the top 80 starters for 2019 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “An obstetrician screaming, ‘Talk about a hole in one!'”  By the tier name I mean, it might depend on the context on whether you should be excited.  Is the obstetrician in the delivery room or the golf course?  As for Skaggs, kinda shocked I didn’t write a Tyler Skaggs sleeper post, but if he breaks out I will point back to this and how I wanted to write a sleeper post on him.  If he gets injured again and/or doesn’t perform, I will ignore this completely.  Welcome to the world of being a fantasy sports ‘pert.  When you’re right, you scream it from the mountaintop.  When you’re wrong, you descend into your mother’s basement and pretend someone else said that really stupid thing.  Also, I go over Skaggs in the video at the top of the page.  2019 Projections: 11-9/3.87/1.31/156 in 152 IP

57. Kenta Maeda – The epitome of this tier.  I think Maeda is a number two, in the good way, or a useless piece of garnage.  That’s garnage.  As in, garbage found after carnage.  It’s highly specialized, strewn garbage with toxic waste on it.  Dave Roberts says Maeda will be in the rotation to start the year, but I could easily see him start Maeda on April 8th, then say, “I only said to start the season, he’s out of the rotation as of April 9th.  Happy Easter to everyone except Sandy Koufax, or is that Bill Nye?”  If Maeda is in the rotation for 160+ innings, which he could easily throw, he’s a fantasy number two.  Only Dave Roberts in his infinitesimal wisdom could even think Maeda shouldn’t be in the rotation all year.  He has a career 9.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and 3.66 xFIP.  Basically, a borderline top 20 starter.  I nearly wrote a sleeper post about him too.  How the hell is he being drafted 94th overall for starters?  Rhetorical!  2019 Projections:  12-9/3.61/1.22/138 in 131 IP

58. Brandon Woodruff – As with everyone in this tier, I nearly wrote sleeper posts for all of them.  I’m actually impressed with my own self-restraint that I didn’t rank Woodruff in the top 10 overall.  Quickly, some wonderful:  His K/9 was 10, he throws 95 MPH, his walk rate is barely 3 (only when rounding up) and his xFIP was 3.36.  Now, for the cherry on top, he had a 53.1% ground ball rate.  That’s just barely out of the top ten for starters.  It’s mostly coming off his 95 MPH fastball.  So, Ks and ground balls?  Dude, when do we go to Vegas and get married?  Yes, I’m married already and not gay, but why are we letting these things stand in our way?  I like that Woodruff!  WUT.  He could be a top 20 starter.  That sentence is drool-worthy, because I wrote it with drool hanging from my mouth.  So, what’s the down side?!  He had a 2.03 ERA (2.34 xFIP) and 11.5 K/9 as a reliever, and 6.32 ERA (5.10 xFIP), 7.5 K/9 as a starter.  I might’ve just ranked my first middle reliever.  Though, his teammate, Josh Hader will be ranked above him in my top 500, once I release that.  2019 Projections: 8-3/3.09/1.21/135 in 124 IP

59. Marco Gonzales – He walks so few guys, has had slightly more Ks previously, and is only 27.  He could make his 7.5 K/9 work for him, or add more Ks, and be a huge breakout still.   2019 Projections:  10-8/3.66/1.20/159 in 186 IP

60. Steven Matz – If he didn’t lose velocity and have a mediocre strikeout rate, he’d be ranked about forty spots higher in the pitching ranks.  I know what you’re thinking, “You can not spell legendary without Grey.  I understand this point fully, but saying if a guy didn’t lose velocity and have no Ks, he’d be ranked higher is like saying, ‘My wife would be Christie Brinkley, if she didn’t look a female walrus — a galrus?'”  First of all, galrusses are cute, bruh.  2nd of all, yes, you’re right, normally.  For Matz, last year, Matz had 8.9 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and 4.13 xFIP, while upping his fastball velocity to 93.4 MPH (thankfully, not kilometers per hour) and had a slider that was around 35th best in the majors.  He also won five games and lost 11, which obviously means nothing, but it made me chuckle.  Five games won in 30 starts.  I mean, jeebus, Mets.  Mets’ run support was like a pre-waffle Nike sole that Prefontaine wore for seven years.  Any hoo!  Matz can easily have a ~3.40 ERA with a little luck as he can have a 4.40 ERA.  2019 Projections:  8-10/3.91/1.23/171 in 173 IP

  1. Hip hop panda says:
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    Good work as always sir!

  2. Ante Galic says:
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    Grey!!!

    Great top 60 for starters report, can’t wait for the top 80 and top 100! Keep ’em coming!

    a. Great list of pitchers herein. Noticed that you’re favoring your Italian crew there – Eovaldi and Pivetta. They are good and backed up with beautiful peripherals just like Al Capone’s mother loved her son Al!

    b. So from this group: Heaney, Skaggs, Woodruff, Ryu, Eo, Pivetta, Hill. All would be great #4 or #5 starters in a standard 5X5 RCL, right?

    c. Subdued Norm MacDonald quote of the day for February 1

    1. Singer Billy Joel survived a massive earthquake which rocked Japan this week. The quake which hit the sports city of Kobe killed nearly 5000 people and demolished hundreds of buildings. To repeat, do not panic – Billy Joel has survived the earthquake.

    2. Jimmy Carter has written a collection of poetry. It includes his latest poem entitled: “Ode to a country full of stupid ungrateful bastards.”

    3. Here’s an amazing story! Twins born 95 (!!) days apart. Even more amazing, they were born to different mothers and they don’t even look alike!

    4. A blind man felt Princess Diana’s face last week and said she is the prettiest woman that he had ever seen. He then picked up a toilet plunger and said thank you for this royal scepter. I shall treasure it always.

    5. Officials in Disney World have ordered their ride The Extraterrorestrial to be shut down until it can be made scarier. When the attraction re-opens in two weeks, it will be exactly the same but missing 6 bolts and the brakes.

    d. Hoping officials can find Punxsutawney Phil’s hole let alone if can make it of said hole. Good luck to all across the mid-west and across all of Canada with the cold snap. Stay warm!

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ante Galic: You must wait until Monday! A. Plus, Al Capone’s propensity for hiding bottles of liquor in his walls B. Yup! C. 3. Ha

      • Ante Galic says:
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        @Grey: Grey!

        Thanks man. Will wait patiently and I will like it.

        Also, have a nice weekend. Stay safe and warm.

        Cheers,
        Ante

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Oh, I’m warm in LA, we good!

          • Ante Galic says:
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            @Grey: Grey!

            It’s rainy here today and tomorrow. And fyi we still haven’t watched neither Cold War nor Roma.

            As an aside, I saw that Raging Bull was on TV. I love Raging Bull and asked if she wanted to watch. Then she saw it was in black and white and said forget it!! Just like that, one of the best movies EVER made, dismissed because it’s in black and white!!! #Firstworldproblems.

            Cheers,
            Ante

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Too bad Ted Turner never colorized it… Darn…

              • Ante Galic says:
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                @Grey: Grey!!

                Lol! I wouldn’t watch it if it were colorized!

                Cheers,
                Ante

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Use your imagination, Ante!

    • LenFuego says:
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      @Ante Galic: I just laughed so freakin’ hard at that Billy Joel earthquake blurb.

  3. Bbboston says:
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    Grey,

    Help me understand your ranking intent….

    Not to drone on Heaney, but your projection is superior to pretty much all the guys above him, so why is he below them in rankings?

    • Cram It says:
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      @Bbboston: Grey might have a disclaimer somewhere about this reasoning. If not, he should, because this question gets asked 100 times in the preseason.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Bbboston: Rankings aren’t just on #s, risk/health/track record etc

      • bigbear says:
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        @Grey: What he said…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ha

    • bigbear says:
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      @Bbboston: I believe it has to do with risk. Heaney hasn’t quite put it together for some counting stats year/year yet. He’s in the fizzy drink tier where you could fly with him or get sloppy fall-down drunk… Early on you want no risk. The mid/late rounds he’s going for upside while adding in more risk. Even if his projections are better, he’s accounting for track record, ballpark, etc… There are some stats that have a tighter bell curve of probable outcomes. And some stats that have longer statistical tails (wider/riskier) on the bell curve.

  4. Johnnyhobbes says:
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    The Gray blurb got lolz from me this morning. Your mother’s a lovely lady, treat her well!

  5. jonny says:
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    Hey!! Thanks for all that you do.

    I need to keep 20 in my league. was wondering if you could help. or maybe offer who I should be trading away.

    League stats: R 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB AVG- W SV HR K ERA WHIP K/9 QS

    Votto- Abreu
    Merrifield- DoZier- Torres
    C. Seager- Anderson
    Andujar- Moose
    Betts-Benintendi-Springer-Cruz- Conforto- Peralta

    Paxton- Carrasco- Corbin-Madbum- Cole- Morton-Ray-Stroman
    Diaz- Chapman- Jansen

    my first thought is to release Tim Anderson- Moose-Peralta-Dozier-Ray-Stroman-Morton that leaves me with 19 so i can keep one of these if i choose too.

    What are your thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @jonny: Do you have time to wait to see if Moose signs somewhere good?

      • jonny says:
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        @Grey: Yes March 1st is deadline to confirm keepers.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Then you got time

  6. Cram It says:
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    Points league, keep (forever) 6:
    Acuna
    Bregman
    Hoskins
    Scherzer
    Bauer

    Last spot, who ya got?
    Springer
    Robles
    Devers

    • Peacecoast says:
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      @Cram It: springer or robles depending if you need speed. I lean Springer, he has to do better than last year in that lineup.

      • Peacecoast says:
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        @Peacecoast: wait keep forever? Robles

      • Cram It says:
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        @Peacecoast: It’s a points league and speed isn’t a huge impact. OBP/Total bases/low K’s are paramount. I don’t have a read on what type of player Robles will become, but I’ve been waning on Springer. Thanks!

    • The Great Knoche says:
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      @Cram It: Robles

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Cram It: It is between Springer and Robles, think you have to keep Springer

      • LenFuego says:
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        @Grey: Yeah, when you only keep 6, it does not generally pay to wait around for prospects to blossom. For all you know, Robles will be the next Byron Buxton, or have a season like Lewis Bronson did last year. Unless you are super confident that Robles is going to play every day and make a big impact (and you probably shouldn’t be), I’d keep Springer.

        • Cram It says:
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          @Grey: @LenFuego: Yeah I’ve been burned by that before. And I don’t like buying into the next big thing. I don’t know if he’s going to be the next McCutchen or cap out as a Marte at best. I’ll probably stick with Springer.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Yeah, exactly

  7. Cram It says:
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    I would have bet you’d have Gausman in the top 40, now that he’s in the NL. You wouldn’t listen to me the last 4 years that he’d never break out as long as he was on the Orioles, so I understand the contempt at this point. They finally set that bird free! I’m planning on getting a share.

    • knucks says:
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      @Cram It: Interesting. And I see he is around SP50 or so in the NFBC ADP.

    • Dave D says:
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      @Cram It:
      So, should we ignore his 6.6 k/9 IP after the trade. His era and whip were very solid but I think Grey may be a bit optimistic on K’s even. What accounts for the low k’s? 10 GS is a good sample size. Maybe pitching more to contact?

      • knucks says:
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        @Dave D: That’s a good point there Dave, def don’t ignore the 60 IP after the move last year. But numbers aside (not my forte) I’m kinda with Cram and ambitiously thinking about the positive effect that the move from the worst team in the AL East (hell, the worst team in baseball) to the team that is prob the fav to win the NL East again could have on him.

        Would love to hear OTS break Gausman down even deeper before my drafts get underway.

        • The Great Knoche says:
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          @knucks: I think the Ks are what they are now, as he was certainly pitching more to contact after the trade. He changed over to throwing more sinkers vs four-seamers after the trade.

          Batting average against fell from the .280s down to .233. He could get to an 8K/9, but I dont see much beyond that. I can see a sub 4 ERA with decent wins on Atlanta though, but right around 50th SP off the board feels right.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            True, but not going back in

            • Dave D says:
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              @Grey:

              I’d pull the trigger on Gausman after 200 probably if I missed out on some other guys. I like him somewhat but I also am not totally sold either. He’s moved up lately and is 191 ADP since 1/15. I’ve done two DCs already and they were very different for SP ADP’s. First one (before any ADPs released) I got my Glasnow at 189 as my 3rd SP (Heaney was 188). I shoulda taken Lucchesi next but there was a SP run after my pick. My second draft all the sleepers were gone by 169 so I reached for Lucchesi as my 3rd. I’m fine with that. Actual picks can vary pretty widely compared with ADP. Ideally Id like Lucchesi as my 4th. Maybe in a subsequent draft I can get my ideal picks near where Im targeting them ADP-wise. Id probably rather get OF/offense sleepers at 200-300 and grab some guys I think have some upside like F. Peralta and even Urena who was great after beaning Tildaddy. He will likely put up similar numbers as Gausman but 150 picks later.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                I’d pull the trigger on Gausman way later than he’d ever go — like 250 or something — I like Urena too, and agree he could be as good as Gausman… Could vs. likely is the problem for Urena… That’s one good thing about those early drafts if you know who to target…

                • Dave D says:
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                  @Grey:
                  The guy throws gas, and as Tildaddy knows, he can locate. He’s the kind of guy who could morph into an ace by adding a good new pitch to his reportoire. Low WHP guys with good control but otherwise average numbers are frequently good guys to target. I watched him a few times in September after the suspension and he seemed impressive. Maybe he upped his game and thrived after all the bad press. Thats character in my book, even if the beaning was sketchy.

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    Yup, don’t disagree… Urena will be on my NFBC team if I can get him after 250

                    • Dave D says:
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                      @Grey:

                      How about 412?

                      Got lucky there which made up for a couple other questionable pucks earlier (as is often the case).

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      412?! Yeah, I’m all over that price… I’d be psyched if I got him after 300, tbh

                    • Cram It says:
                      (link)

                      @Grey: Urena was a godsend for my NFBC team last year down the stretch.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Yeah, I think he could be a crazy sneaky late pick… Not for RCLs tho, I mean, but after drafts as a waiver guy…

                  • knucks says:
                    (link)

                    @Dave D: Great stuff Dave! I mentioned before that I’ll be doing some of the cheap NFBC drafts starting next week. Fully anticipate picking your brain in mid Feb about things like this. Your’s too Grey, as is tradition.

                    • Dave D says:
                      (link)

                      @knucks: My baseball (and real life?) IQ is lower than Grey’s but I do win more than I spend by a pretty stretch in NFBC so Id be glad to give a second or third opinion if I feel well informed enough to do so.

                    • Packers says:
                      (link)

                      @knucks: Knucks, I’ll chime in also. I’m doing my 6th $50 draft and hold now. To me its better than mocking because everyone is trying and they finish the draft.

      • Cram It says:
        (link)

        @Dave D: I’m not saying hes a SP3, but I think the 6.6 k/9 is a small sample size considering he’s at 8 his whole career. I think Grey’s K projection is a little high, but I’m feeling a mid-3 ERA/1.20ish WHIP and certainly more wins than usual. Solid SP4.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Cram It: Haha, I just can’t go back in on him… He wasn’t great in the NL to get me excited about him again — Mets aren’t bad, Nats aren’t bad, Phils are good… Not the easiest NL division… I’m still out

  8. Chris says:
    (link)

    10 team H2H points league – keep forever league

    I may be able to pull off a preseason trade to acquire Ozzie Albies. If I can…..would you keep him and have to draft a 1B after the 10th round or just forget the deal and keep Bellinger and have to draft a 2B after the 10th round. Basically would you keep Bellinger or Albies in a keep forever league? Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Chris: Albies is above him a little

  9. James says:
    (link)

    Would anyone trade 1st round keeper trout for 5th round keeper Acuna? Points league. Would you trade 12th round Nola for 28th round buehler? Is mondesi going to lose value in a league that gives -1 for strikeouts?

    • knucks says:
      (link)

      @James: Yea it def sounds like that would hurt Mondessi a fair amount.

      But points leagues make no sense and are hard for me to evaluate. Keeping the leagues I’m playing in this year to be as Standard Roto as possible and haven’t felt this good in a Fake Baseball pre-season in a while. So much easier to set rankings and import this way.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @James: Acuna in the 5th round sounds great… Mondesi gets dinged there, yes

  10. Peacecoast says:
    (link)

    I don’t like anyone in that whole group I think except Pivetta and Heaney.

    Watched Jack Ryan ep 1 last night. Garbage.

    Can’t get Escape from Danemora without a Showtime subscription fucks sake. So no show to watch right now.

    • Justin says:
      (link)

      @Peacecoast:

      Jack Ryan is fun frivolity. Not winning awards but entertaining enough.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Agreed, Justin

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Peacecoast: Whaaaat? Jack Ryan is decent popcorn fluff, agree with Justin… You’re being too hard on it… It’s not Gomarrah but it’s not bad

      • Peacecoast says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Man I dunno. Why the fuck would they need a analyst to fly the fuck out to Yemen to interrogate a dude just because it was his idea to lock a bank account. These things drive me crazy. I like realism in my TV. Homeland felt realistic. I will watch a couple more episodes though.

        • FrankGrimes says:
          (link)

          @Peacecoast:

          Dude you need to torrent then you can watch season 3 of Gomorrah too.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Yeah, how has this not happened yet? You need to watch season 3!

          • Peacecoast says:
            (link)

            @FrankGrimes: I need this. Didn’t think of Torrent. No other way to get it now? How did you guys get it?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Season 3 was (prolly is) on Pirate Bay

              • FrankGrimes says:
                (link)

                @Peacecoast: @Grey:

                Email me I’ll walk you thru it if you can’t figure it out.

                • Peacecoast says:
                  (link)

                  @FrankGrimes: ok thanks!

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Grimey stepping up with much needed assistance!

                  • Peacecoast says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: waiting on Grey to hook our emails up

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      I sent you Grimey’s

                • Malicious Phenoms says:
                  (link)

                  @FrankGrimes: is pirate bay a free site on the computer or??

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
                    (link)

                    Grimes might have a better way, that was just how I went about it

                  • FrankGrimes says:
                    (link)

                    @Malicious Phenoms:

                    Well yes. It’s sorta sketchy to use but you just need to get used to it’s trickyness (if that’s a word ha). I actually use another site.

                    • Malicious Phenoms says:
                      (link)

                      @FrankGrimes: Thanks.what is the other site?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Bc he’s the star of the show, I’m not saying it’s a docu-drama… It’s fine tho, you have to suspend some disbelief, PC

          • Justin says:
            (link)

            @Grey:

            Exactly, Jack Ryan needs to be there because otherwise there is no premise for the show. Suspend reality and just enjoy. Also, John K. as a top flight badass seems far-fetched…but dude is ripped. Not sure who his personal trainer is but they deserve a pay hike.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              They got Bunk, what else do you need?!

              • Justin says:
                (link)

                @Grey:

                He’s a pretty generic character in this show. I feel like he’s constantly saying something along the lines of “Damn, Jack Ryan! There’s a protocol for a reason! People are gonna get killed because you can’t follow procedure!”

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Yeah, but he’s Bunk… “You think you have the answers, but I had the answers and now those answers are gone! I’m Bunk!”

        • Florida Cracker says:
          (link)

          For anyone who likes to read and has time to read 20+ novels the Jack Ryan series is very good. As always after reading them anything made for TV or a movie is [email protected]Peacecoast:

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Been meaning to read one…

  11. The Great Knoche says:
    (link)

    Wrigkey Catheter..nice

    I’ve said three years running this was the year Skaggs breaks out. Then he breaks something else. I’m out, so everyone else should buy because he will finally stay healthy.

  12. Dave D says:
    (link)

    This seems pretty straightforward with the only surprises being the Brew Crew of Woodruff and Anderson. I’d like to see Freddy Peralta keep Woof-ruff in the pound, I mean ‘pen. Other than that the list is pretty consistent with the current NFBC ADP in that range. Are you agreeing with the status quo, Sir Grey? Should I also start believing the ice caps are rapidly melting and that I need to build an arc? What the hell is going on? Can pitchers and catchers from Minnesota to Ohio just report early for their cactii and grapefruit?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Dave D: Not too many surprises outside of Brew Crew – NFBC ADP is always smartest in land, it’s ESPN and Yahoo with the head scratchers

  13. knucks says:
    (link)

    Looks like Kikuchi hasn’t been added into the player pool over at ESPN just yet.

    • knucks says:
      (link)

      @knucks: Oh and you either know this already or will learn very soon, but Pivetta isn’t going to be available as SP47 very often. Or at the very least, he is no longer a sleeper. NFBC ADP has him around SP41 now, which is only going to rise now that everyone is on him.

    • knucks says:
      (link)

      @knucks: Maybe I’m wrong on my Pivetta point. I see you pointed to the fact that he had an ADP around 160 in your sleeper post from a month ago. And now its around 156. I just hear his name across the industry anytime anyone wants to discuss sleeper pitchers. So I do expect it to continue to rise.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        @knucks: Hmm… Maybe on Pivetta, but I’d guess in straight ESPN and Yahoo leagues, he’ll be around later…

      • Dave D says:
        (link)

        @knucks:

        I was in one of the first DC drafts in early November and took Pivetta with pick 156. So you can blame me (or give me credit?) for his current ADP.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @knucks: It’s only been 3 months, give them time

  14. Nightpandas says:
    (link)

    Got offered Lucchesi or Archer for Buxton in a keeper

    Would you do either ?

    Qs k/9 league

  15. knucks says:
    (link)

    104/30/77/.282/27 in 578 ABs

    ^^ This is your Acuna projection. Does anything change regarding his place in the Top 10 with the announcement that the Barves want him to bat 4th instead of leading off? Of course, more RBI, less SBs? But he stays at #5 right?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @knucks: I might adjust runs and ribbies, but I’m not changing his ranking — he could steal more with less people to drive him in

    • Fungazi 2.0 says:
      (link)

      @knucks: Inciarte, Donaldson, Markasis all above Albies. That reported lineup card would also make good for toilet paper.

      • The Great Knoche says:
        (link)

        @Fungazi 2.0: Makes sense to me for those three to hit in front of him. I could see him leapfrogging the catcher spot though.

        Sparkakis might not be super exciting for fantasy, but he did have 700ABs last year and hit .297 and drove in 93. He also walked almost as much as he struck out. IF acuna isn’t leading off it has to be Ender at top of lineup.

        • Fungazi 2.0 says:
          (link)

          @The Great Knoche: Albies is a run scoring machine. Career year for Markakis, by the end of 2019 you’ll have forgotten he was even in the lineup at one point

          • Dave D says:
            (link)

            @Fungazi 2.0:

            Yeah, no way if Albies gets hot like 1st half last year that they keep him buried. If anything it would send a message that he has to earn a spot atop the line-up and he is up to the task and highly motivated to prove himself.

            • Fungazi 2.0 says:
              (link)

              @Dave D: Agreed!

        • Fungazi 2.0 says:
          (link)

          @The Great Knoche: Here’s the fungazi-corrected lineup for them 1- 9: Albies, Acuna, Donaldson or Riley, Freeman, Tucker, Catcher, Swanson, Pitcher, Inciarte

    • bigbear says:
      (link)

      @knucks: Praise be! That could put him in the 100 R and 100 RBI conversation. The guys behind him aren’t complete slouches – Albies, Flowers, and some combination of Donaldson, Camargo, Swanson, and hopefully Riley.

    • LenFuego says:
      (link)

      @knucks: I actually think the fact that Snitker likes Acuna for the cleanup might be good for his SBs. Snitker would probably not want to run the Braves out of an inning with power hitters like Donaldson and Freeman coming up, but with singles hitters like Markakis and the like hitting behind Acuna, getting to second base will be important. So Snitker may actually see hitting Acuna fourth as a way to unlock his speed.

  16. Harley Earl says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    Need your advice/opinion today. I’m in a Keeper league that keeps six with the following categories: R, Hits, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, SLG, Wins, Saves, Ks, Holds, ERA, WHIP, Quality Starts.

    I need to choose my six keepers between these guys. Keepers are allowed to be drafted one round ahead of where they were the previous year. I’ll put in parenthesis the round they’ll go in this year.

    Giancarlo Stanton (1)
    Manny Machado (2)
    Ozzie Albies (6)
    Trevor Story (7)
    George Springer (12)
    Edwin Diaz (13)
    Josh Hader (15)
    Andrew Benintendi (16)
    Mitch Haniger (20)
    Jack Flaherty (21)

    My inclination is to keep Stanton, Machado, Benintendi, Story, and Springer. But I’m not sure about the sixth guy though. My heart says Albies but my head is saying Flaherty in the 21st round. Not sure if any of the other players at their rounds matter (Haniger or Diaz or Hader).

    Would you take Albies in the 6th round, Flaherty in the 21st or someone else? Or would you scrap one of the other players like Springer in favor of somebody?

    Thanks for your advice!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Those five and Albies

      • Harley Earl says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Thanks boss! I can always count on you!!!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

  17. FrankGrimes says:
    (link)

    I am Genny, son of Don Pietro.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I am Josh Donaldson, son of Donald

      • FrankGrimes says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        I’m sorry I can’t stop haha.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I am Frank Grimes, son of Grimey

          • FrankGrimes says:
            (link)

            @Grey:

            Haha.

            I am Matthew Berry, son of douche nozzles.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Haha, nice!

              I am Eric Karabell, son of Clara Bell

              • FrankGrimes says:
                (link)

                @Grey:

                Hahah there’s an instant classic.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Haha

              • The Great Knoche says:
                (link)

                @Grey: I am Scott White son of Betty

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Haha

                  I am Brad Evans, son of Evan Evans (prolly)

                  • The Great Knoche says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: I am Nando Di Fino son of….. Shit I got nothing.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Haha… I am a Russian Nesting Doll, SON SOn Son son of a Russian Nesting Doll

            • Skip Mcgillicuddy says:
              (link)

              @FrankGrimes: I thought Matthew Berry was the son of Dingle?

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Haha

                • BJFOHOHL says:
                  (link)

                  @Grey: I am J-FOH, son of Tristan Cockroft

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
                    (link)

                    Oh my God, you totally are! I am Tristan Cockcroft, JFOH’s daddy

                    • BJFOHOHL says:
                      (link)

                      @Grey: I figured you would appreciate the classic from our 1st spring training together

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      I did, hehe

                    • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
                      (link)

                      @Grey: why does nobody (seemingly) but me go with “cockraft” it’s way easiest common denom than many other joke names.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Haha

  18. JM says:
    (link)

    I don’t want to split hairs here, but the number 3 looks more to me like a “bosom from above” than a “sideways bosom.” An “aerial bosom” if you will…

    • JM says:
      (link)

      @JM: ….or a bosom from below, I suppose. That’s fun too…

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        That’s a profiled bosom, no?

        • JM says:
          (link)

          @Grey:

          ¯\_(?)_/¯
          I dunno man. What I do know is you’ve ruined (read: vastly improved) the number 3 for me for the rest of my life. Just when I thought I had the market cornered on seeing bosoms everywhere I look, along comes Grey….

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            I guess the bosom needs to be lying down too… A helicopter flying a bosom above us?

            • JM says:
              (link)

              @Grey: NOW you’re talking!!!

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Haha

  19. Skip Mcgillicuddy says:
    (link)

    After a few starts at Great American Ballpark, the Reds front office will want to send Alex Wood a whole box of exploding cigars.

    The demise of Darvish is upsetting. It’s gonna be hard to pass on him if he falls very late in the draft, but drafting him will almost certainly give me stomach ulcers around mid-June/July.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ha, yup

  20. Jr says:
    (link)

    Dynasty keeper question. In a 10 team h2h league would you prefer Khris or Blackmon? Stats are Total Bases, HR, BB, OBP, SLG and net steals.

    I know you have blackmon ranked higher, but would these categories change your thoughts on anything?

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d go Khris

  21. Big Ticket says:
    (link)

    I know you love Trea, and understandably so, but would you draft him above Eloy in startup OBP dynasty?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yup

      • Big Ticket says:
        (link)

        @Grey: How close is it?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Not that close, Trea Turner is already a top pick, Eloy only has promise

  22. Peacecoast says:
    (link)

    Trying to work a trade to get Mondessi in the 20th round. Give up Gleyber and Eloy, both in 20? We only keep for one year.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sounds fine to me

  23. Frank the tank says:
    (link)

    Hi Grey, long time reader. Love your insight so thank you for all that you do!

    Question for you. Roto 5×5, auction. Can keep up to 15 total players w $5 increments in salary for max 3 yrs. After reviewing your pitcher rankings you’ve got me thinking. Starting pitching last yr was great. Fell short on the hitting esp. SB

    Can keep up to 6 SP. Verlander $33, Corbin $3, Berrios $7, grenkie $22, Porcello $7, Eovaldi $5. Corbin and berrios are the obvious choices but not sure about the others. Would love to get my hands on mondesi by trading a pitcher. Would an offer like Verlander for mondesi straight up be too much? If so, ideas on other offers

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks, Ftt!

      You have the arms to do it, can you get someone to bite on Greinke for something tho, instead?

      • Frank the tank says:
        (link)

        @Grey: thanks Grey. Will give it a go

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

  24. Westly says:
    (link)

    Was offered Jon Grey for Garrett Hampson in a 16 team dynasty H2H cats. Hell no or hell yeah? Leaning hell no.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I don’t love either, but would not touch Gray

  25. Joey says:
    (link)

    Rain rain go away wtf another storm brewing in LA!

    Keep 8 NL only 5×5 8 teams

    Keeping

    Acuna 16
    Albies 5
    Muncy 4
    Hoskins 8
    Rosario 1

    Corbin 1
    Vazquez 1

    Grey do we both feel warm n fuzzy about these 7

    Last spot

    Stripling 1
    Minter 2
    Nola 26
    Cesar Hernandez 5
    TATIS 1

    I’m mixed on who to keep in my last spot:

    Lock up nola but 26 he goes for 30-32 @ draft

    Am I missing something but stripling was a top 25 nl arm actually top 15 til he tired out. is he in the dodger rotation his peripherals are top 15 no starter?

    Tatis for a buck for the next 2 years?

    Cesar 5 he played 80 games on a broken foot im projecting he hits 290 w 15-20 bags

    Grey tell when will the rains end and your swami thoughts on my 8 keepers.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’m over the rain, Joey, don’t like it! Nola or Tatis… Prolly go Nola

      • Joey says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        So stripling is a grey sleeper or was he head faking us??

        No way those mediocre dodger arms dont fall off he is already projecting as #5 arm but I think he is #3 behind walker

        ROTATION
        1. C. Kershaw
        2. W. Buehler
        3. H. Ryu
        4. R. Hill
        5. R. Stripling
        6. K. Maeda
        7. J. Urias

        Striplings #s
        10.03k 1.62b 6.18 1.33 27.0 % 4.4 % 22.7 % .256 1.19 whip .322 86.1 % 79 85 3.42

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No way is he #3 — Rudy has him down for 83 IP, I think that’s a little low, but not too low

          • Joey says:
            (link)

            @Grey:

            I dont see that Dodgers starters are so fraught with injury prone arms

            As a Dodger season ticket holder i watched him crushing 75% of last season and his #s and preriphels matched and showed it was not a fluke. If he was a great prospect and has those #s we would draft as top 25 arm and after tiring would look at that as a growing experience and look 4 him to pitch 160-180 innings 160-190ks 3.1-3.3 era with a 1.2-1.3 whip this year?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              I don’t dislike him, but the Dodgers rotation is stacked with SPs who should be in the rotation before him… Who do you remove? Maeda?

              • Eli Man Penguin Boy says:
                (link)

                @Grey: LAD already do remove maeda (and others) with fake DL stints and routine bullpenning for what 2ish years (more?) now.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Yeah, they did, but that was why? I think Maeda was coming off an injury, right? (I don’t remember the reason w/out research)

                  • Eli Man Penguin Boy says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: i think yr right, but i’d still think it’s possible this happens yet again. LAD stream their own pitchers in a variety of ways due to MLB allowing them to.

                    • Eli Man Penguin Boy says:
                      (link)

                      @Eli Man Penguin Boy: and hell, with LAD, who even knows if that “injury” had any merit of any kind objectively.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Yeah, but MLB is talking about making DL 15 day again and no more 10-day

  26. Justin says:
    (link)

    Wide Miley just signed with Astros. Does he become a decent pickup now just because some Astros pitching magic will rub off on him?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nah, not interested

    • Eli Man Penguin Boy says:
      (link)

      @Justin: nobody is discussing what kinda weird magic the MIL team put on him last year. or some of their other starters last year. searage my ass, MIL stole him or his playbook last year at some point. that’s an awful pitcher park as well. besides like z.davies being his awful self pretty much all other SP last year on MIL got insanely lucky AND/OR the MIL pitching coach is better than whatever searage has been up to since maybe ivan nova/liriano (for a little bit) and HOU lately with their affinity for giving tops (the spinny thing) for gifts to everybody and their mother. that would be a good skit if it was just lucky. everybody that comes into contact with the MIL pitching coach from last year gives him massive props and he’s like “what i do?”

  27. The Great Knoche says:
    (link)

    $7 Michael Brantley or $10 Profar? OBP league

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Profar

  28. Thomas Housel says:
    (link)

    STILL no JAMES…GAAAWD…!!!???

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      He’ll be out of a starting job by March 15th

  29. OaktownSteve says:
    (link)

    Hey Albright. I don’t know about you, but the secondary pitchers this year aren’t calling out to me like they do most years. Maybe it’s just me. Magoo has me looking at G. Cole in the second. How would I live with myself?

    Also…a quick question for you. When you go into a snake roto draft, do you have any objective(s) in mind as far as what you want the final outcome to look like? How do you evaluate the outcome after the draft? How do you evaluate if it was a good/draft or a bad draft? To you look at any quantitative data about the draft and do you put any stock in it?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      You can’t take Cole in the 2nd, that’s just bad… Why would you do that? If there’s no good SPs for you, then there’s no good SPs for anyone, it doesn’t mean you jump on one… There’s no good catchers, are you grabbing Realmuto in the 3rd? I mean, cmon…

      Think snake draft depends on 12, 15, 16 or something else… 12 team is seat of pants by just knowing what to grab… 15 I do look more at Steamer and where the numbers are adding up vs. what I need to get

      • OaktownSteve says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        So in a 15 teamer are you looking at target totals for categories?

        • OaktownSteve says:
          (link)

          @OaktownSteve:

          Also do you pay attention to your pitcher/hitter splits in $?

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            I don’t look at splits, but I inherently am usually very close to a 180/80 split

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          In NFBC? Yes, I am — In 15, Yahoo Friends and Family, I use fudge it a little, and go more 12 teamer gut, bc they all draft SPs so high

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
        (link)

        @Grey: I’m not necessarily pushing for a pitcher in the 2nd. Usually go BPA in the early rounds. But you have to be aware of the entire player pool as well.

        WIth an early draft slot (1-5) in a 15 team format, the best hitters available in the late 2nd round based on ADP are likely to be some combination of Blackmon, Benintendi, and Soto. If you believe in someone like Cole being able to repeat his ’18 as I do (Astros’ analytics increasing usage of breaking balls + Verlander’s tutelage on high fastball usage), then he’s likely to be much more valuable than a 33 year old OF who’s running less, a 15/20 player, and a 30 HR 2nd year player who barely runs at all.

        Also, if you pass on SP at the 2/3 turn, you might have a shot at Clevinger, Flaherty, or Taillon coming back in the 4th, but it’s not guaranteed. Their ADPs are all in that late 4th, early 5th range. If you want Marquez, you’d have to take him in the 5th if you’re in a standard NFBC group. If you pass on him, you’d probably end up with something like a CMart/ERod/Bieber top 3.

        In that scenario, you’d need at least one of ERod or Bieber (or someone else) to pull a Snell or Bauer and make a huge leap forward to be competitive in pitching. That’s why I see Cole as a much bigger difference maker than the Blackmon/Soto types in the late 2nd area.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I’m not drafting Blackmon… But Benintendi or Soto are there for me, I’m taking them before Cole… Case by case, but I’m not in on an SP in the 2nd round… In NFBC, I usually take a starter in the 4th round… Lats year it was Yu Darvish, which worked out awful, but I came in top 20 overall for all leagues (Bauer in the 6th helped; Mikolas in the 20th helped too)… The year before it was Kluber, who worked out great, and I won the league, but didn’t do as well overall… I don’t buy you need an SP in the 1st two rounds… I do appreciate the discussion, and you’re not alone in your thinking… Rudy would draft an SP in the 2nd all day, and can’t fault it…

          • Big Magoo

            Big Magoo says:
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            @Grey: Sounds like your teams were driven by strong hitting and staff anchors in Kluber and Bauer. I think it’s important to have that SP anchor.

            All my NFBC teams had top 3 finishes last year. Each team was strong offensively. The 3rd place squad had Syndergaard then a drop off due to injuries and a couple of busts. The 1st place squad was pulled over the top by Snell and Diaz. Pitching was the difference.

            If you think you can identify this year’s Snell or Bauer, then loading up exclusively on offense early on is probably the right move. Personally, I love Wheeler, but he’s already a top 100 pick. Don’t see Bieber making that type of jump. Stuff isn’t dominant. Maybe ERod, but he has durability issues and has been erratic even when healthy. Castillo, CMart, and Darvish are possibilities, but they’re not going that late. Would have to burn picks in the 7-10 round area for those guys. Plenty of hitters I like in that range, but not so much on the pitching side. To me, it’s a matter of identifying the breakout SPs.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Lots of ways to skin the cat… Snell-types aren’t going to be there every year… I wrote a sleeper post on Snell last year, and loved him, but if there’s no Snell, figure out another way to make it work… Maybe this year it will be because I won’t get completely nothing from my pick last year where I took Darvish… I don’t know, no one will know at this point… Just gotta set yourself up for winning, hopefully a combo of Flaherty, Bieber, Wheeler, Castillo and Skaggs or someone will make that difference… A staff of Flaherty, CMart, Castillo, Hendricks, Maeda etc doesn’t sound that bad to me…

              • Big Magoo

                Big Magoo says:
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                @Grey: Yeah, lots of different strategies can be successful. No doubt about that. It’s a matter of picking the right players.

                Might be able to put those strategies into practice. OTS and I have talked about teaming up again, and the no transaction, slow draft-and-hold format is the most appealing one for each of us. Maybe we’ll see you or Rudy in a league this year.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Nice! That would be awesome, I had fun beating OTS last year!

                  • FrankGrimes says:
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                    @Grey:

                    Humble brag haha

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Haha, well, yeah!

  30. OaktownSteve says:
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    Cincy GM The Other Dick Williams says CF job is Senzel’s to lose.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Wow, that’s legit crazy — does everyone else in the organization know that?

  31. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Not related to the post, but very curious about any other thoughts re: Matt Chapman 3B. Maybe something you can touch on in the 3B pod? Some other sites are obsessed with him, but I think they’re letting his amazing defense influence fantasy (which ain’t something any self-respecting Razzballer would do!)

    I know you juiced his exit velocity stats to arrive at your ranking and the 29 HR , so I assume that like me there’s something you just like about him that the underlying stats don’t fully capture. Seems like someone who could have a second breakout in 2019, given the power he displayed in the minors (maybe a 100 32 100 .260 sort of thing, though i wouldn’t bet on it).

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’ll look at him for the 3B pod… With where I have him ranked, I don’t think I’m going to be owning many shares of him this year

  32. Dubjay says:
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    Hey Grey
    A guy in my 12 team keeper league(keep 10) is interested in my Merrifield and Madbum. The only two players on his team that I’m interested in are Benetendi and Bellinger. As it stands I would be keeping merrifield to start at 1b. Would dealing both to try to land Benny or bellinger be a good move for me? Already have Soto, Acuña and Ozuna at OF. So would probably drop Ozuna and keep Paxton if I could get Benny. I would keep bellinger over merrifield at 1b if that went through. What do you think?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d deal both for either, would take Benintendi 1st

  33. Tbone says:
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    Dynasty Keeper 5×5 Roto.

    My Peter Alonso, Jesus Luzardo, and Lance McCullers for Corey Kluber and Charlie Blackmon

    Two up and comers for two older vets. I’m close to making a title run, just worried about giving up youth that should be ready to contribute.

    • Cram It says:
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      @Tbone: I’d take that deal if you can make a run. Those guys should give you a few more years.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Doesn’t sound bad for 2019

  34. JM says:
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    I’m live here from the bosom-chopper taking aerial shots of the number three, and what I need to know it what side does Grey like in a keeper league trade?

    Carlos Corrasco
    for
    Corey Seager

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d go Seager, but it’s tomato/tomahto

  35. nightpandas says:
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    Grey, keep em coming….

    In a keeper league I have been turning down deals for Eloy…..now I’ve got one to actually consider:

    My Eloy for his Flaherty and Dahl

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Works for me

  36. primetime says:
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    Grey, 10 team keeper OBP league.

    We can keep either 4 offensive players 3 pitchers or 4 pitchers, 3 offensive players.

    My keepers are due 2/12.
    Keeping:
    Freeman
    Arenado
    Story
    Bellinger

    Pitchers
    Nola

    Since this is a keeper league, should I consider moving players with INJ history like Kershaw and Strausburg. Possibly keeping Luis Castillo and trading for a Jose Berrios; Flaherty?

    Thoughts? My team is down below?

    POS  PLAYERS

    C J.T. Realmuto C | MIA
    1B Freddie Freeman 1B | ATL
    2B Willy Adames 2B,SS | TB
    3B Nolan Arenado 3B | COL 
    SS Trevor Story SS | COL
    OF Cody Bellinger 1B,OF | LAD
    OF Lorenzo Cain OF | MIL
    OF Aaron Hicks OF | NYY
    U Nelson Cruz U | MIN

    2B Jonathan Villar 2B | BAL
    SS Fernando Tatis SS | SD
    OF Mitch Haniger OF | SEA
    OF Nomar Mazara OF | TEX
    OF Marcell Ozuna OF | STL
    OF Victor Robles OF | WAS
    SS Corey Seager SS | LAD

    POS  PLAYERS
    SP J.A. Happ SP | NYY
    SP Clayton Kershaw SP | LAD
    SP Aaron Nola SP | PHI
    SP Stephen Strasburg SP | WAS
    SP Michael Wacha SP | STL
    SP Zack Wheeler SP | NYM

    RP Felipe Vazquez RP | PIT

    SP Luis Castillo SP | CIN
    SP Carlos Rodon SP | CHW
    SP Jameson Taillon SP | PIT

  37. JAscher says:
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    In Grey we trust…

    Just made a trade in my keeper league:

    I got:
    Javy Baez (4th round keeper)
    German Marquez (27 round keeper)
    A 20 and 21 round draft pick

    Gave away:
    Nick Senzel (27 round keeper)
    Chris Taylor (23 round keeper)
    Max Muncy (27 round keeper)
    15 and 16 round draft picks

    My keepers went from Taylor, Muncy, Eloy, Hoskins and Acuña to Baez, Marquez, Eloy Hoskins and Acuña…

    Thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Think you did real good!

      • JAscher says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Failed to mention Acuna and Hoskins are 24th round keepers, Marquez and Eloy are 27th round keepers…in a 27 round league

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Nice!

  38. Christian herman says:
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    Why is Heaney lower than guys with less wins, K & IP projected? Along with ERA. What’s the catch?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      More risk

  39. Wally Pipp says:
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    Take jose quintana and put him in a trash can. This guy was literally the reason i lost my big league last season

    Ill take kyle gibson (not listed) over jose quintana all day long and 8 times on sunday. Not that i love gibson, but hes better than jose shit-tana

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, could be

      • Wally Pipp says:
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        @Grey: i mean you said it the Cubs rotation is questionable at best.

        Anyone who owned Jose Quintana last year knows what I’m talking about every single out was a a huge amount of effort. 3-2 every batter. I feel like gibson was pitching deep into games way more often. Gibson had a bunch of quality starts, 18 in fact which was like 22nd best in the league in that department. Quintana had 13 quality starts like 48th best. Quintana era over his last 350 innings is like 4.10, and his k rate fell to barely 8. Hes someone im not going near. Think hes done and could have a brutal season like 5 era.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, you might be right, I’m not drafting Quintana

  40. Paul Visconti says:
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    Robles or Mondesi in dynasty. Points league

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Mondesi

  41. Peacecoast says:
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    Grimesy hooked me up! 2 episodes into Gomorrah S3 now. good stuff. Also got Escape to watch next.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nice! Glad you finally got it!

  42. sgamby says:
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    Need help in a Dynasty League I can only afford one. Conforto or Boegarts? I have Trea Turner also but have a spot for Bogaerts in utility. Or I can keep Boegarts and Conforto but I would have to drop Odor, Nick Williams and Taylor Trammell. Thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Keep both and drop Nick Williams

  43. goodfold2 says:
    (link)

    yep tons of guys bid right around the 10 you guessed on muncy. i went for 1 CI, 1 MI, grichuk at OF, one RP (preferably a likely closer and knew i’d have to pay up for one). my 11.7 didn’t win muncy was in about 4th place, 17 won him for 3 years. grichuk i barely missed at 9.4 (my 8.2 4th place). legs mcneil i went too much for at 7.4 (2nd place mid 3’s). mets hate him though, hopefully he gets traded (i locked him up for 2 years). kinsler was won for 7.1 so even though mcneil’s market was weak due to being on BN right now mcneil’s price should be fine eventually if he can play somewhere.

    – won bour for 7.24 (he was my 4th best CI guy behind muncy, desmond, r-zimm) while franco went for over 14 so i can’t feel bad about overpaying here.

    -won parker for 8.4 (2nd place only 4.9, but wily peralta (who sucks) went for 7.5 and in past years closers go for even more often, ottavino for some reason was multiple years at 10).

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nice on Parker! No big deal on Muncy, 17 is a bit high anyway

  44. BJFOHOHL says:
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    Did you watch Narcos MEH-IKO?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I did

      • BJFOHOHL says:
        (link)

        @Grey: and? I really enjoyed it. Probably my favorite season

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Really? Hmm… I feel like I need to watch it again, I wasn’t as into it as the other seasons… Diego Luna was great, but he’s not scary like he needs to be

          • BJFOHOHL says:
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            @Grey: It builds up. First couple episodes were so so. Or maybe . maybe I was so enamored with Diego I looked past weak parts. Either way I really got into it. Maybe its the Mexican in me

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Yeah, maybe, I wanted to like it, and I didn’t hate it, but was more meh on it than I expected… maybe expectations…

              • BJFOHOHL says:
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                @Grey: Maybe if you liked Mexican food more you would have liked it better

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Haha, this is prolly true

  45. Yatesy says:
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    Dynasty points league: Severino and Rich Hill for Luis Castillo, Alex Reyes and a second round pick?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Works for me

  46. A-MO says:
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    Question on keepers and contracts for my league.

    I am in a 10 person league and we can keep guys based on what they went in the auction draft last year or if they were not big in the auction their keeper price is whatever ESPN assigns them for the coming year. You can sign any player between 1 and 5 years on a contract but each year you keep them the price increases $5 for hitters and $4 for pitchers.
    The entire budget is $280.

    I have a few players I know I will keep but the question is how many years do I sign them?
    1. Eddie Rosario – $1 in auction last year. If I keep him he will be $1 this year, $6 the following and so on….
    2. Matt Olson – $1 in auction last year.

    Here are a few players I might keep or I might throw them back into the auction. Looking for yes/no on keepers and how many years if any I should sign them given the contract price increases.
    1. Anthony Rendon – $17
    2. Justin Upton – $17
    3. Jean Segura – $8
    4. Josh Donaldson – $8
    5. Daniel Palka

    BTW you had me sign Baez to a 5 year deal and I have him through 2021 on a flat contract at $12/year. Amaze ballz!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Rendon 2 years, Upton 2 years, Segura, 2 years, Donaldson 1 year, Palka 1 year… nice on Baez!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Oh and Rosario 3 years, Olson 3 years…

      • A-MO says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Thanks Grey!!

  47. Peacecoast says:
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    Holy fuck Ciro is a badass

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ciro’s the best!

  48. Bill Lumbergh says:
    (link)

    Grey: Here’s my SP keepers in a 12-team mixed w/$300 budget. Cap hits are after inflation and the low $ allow me to keep Trout, Lindor, Story and Freeman! Early deadline, so no pitcher pairing tool yet – but hoping I did ok… Thanks in advance for your feedback.

    SP1 – Corbin ($7)
    SP2 – Taillon ($10)
    SP3 – Wheeler ($6)
    SP4 – Heaney ($6)
    SP5 – Pivetta ($6)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Looks solid to me!

  49. Mike says:
    (link)

    Good morning Gray, great stuff as always. I am getting ready this season in my keeper after I won it all last year. Need some head checking:
    12 team 5X5 standard Cat w/ AVG Keep forever thoughts: Which 6 do you keep? sure things for me are Ramirez, Harper and Trea. Keepers count for rounds 1-6 so if I dont keep one, I would get a 6th round pick. Thanks!

    Pitchers:
    Kluber
    Clevinger
    Taillon
    Flaherty
    Luis Castillo
    Hitters:
    Harper
    Trea
    Hoskins
    Bellinger
    Jose Ramirez
    Soto

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Harper
      Trea
      Hoskins
      Kluber
      Jose Ramirez
      Soto

  50. Hot Corner says:
    (link)

    I feel like I am missing something, like the guy’s arm feel off. In my NFBC, there are 110 SP’s off the board and Chase Anderson is still sitting there. I know that he is not all that sexy, but the dude had a sub-4.00 era and sub-1.25 whip in a BAD year and he throws for a good National League team. Someone even took Taijan Walker who is out after Tommy John Surgery.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Agreed, it’s why I ranked him where he is

  51. Time for Baseball says:
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    Grey,

    Putting together a 10-team 5×5 roto league. I want the league to have a deep free agent pool. How many UTIL and BENCH slots would you include?

    Current roster positions:

    1 C
    1 1B
    1 2B
    1 3B
    1 SS
    3 OF

    2 P
    4 SP
    2 RP

    2 DL slots

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Your league is going to be very shallow… Should have at least 2 UTILs and 5 man bench

  52. Slimcompoop says:
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    What’s good Grey? Happy New Year over-the-internet friend. Been reading through your pre-season posts, but finally got a weekend away from basketball to catch up with my fantasy baseball team. Quick question for you…already keeping Sale, Bauer, Arenado, Turner, and Jose Ramirez. I could obviously keep Rendon as my 6th keeper, but I could also flip him for a draft pick and then keep Jose Berrios as I feel he’s on a verge of a breakout. Thoughts?

    Here’s a couple songs I’ve been listening to recently. I can totally see you sitting poolside with a Daiquiri typing out your next post to the first song.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjaayCARwro
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZigwGPcsdr0
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbrEsOLu75c

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Good to see you, ‘poop! I’d want Rendon over Berrios, not close… Ya know, I kinda love Travis Scott, which I’m a little embarrassed to say

  53. Peacecoast says:
    (link)

    My Gleyber and Mikolas for his Mondesi. I take that all day long right? For this year only

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, take that

      • Peacecoast says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Right!?? I have trea, taillon, eloy, mondesi and erod as keepers.

        Btw S3 has been unbelievably good so far.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I know, I’m watching Gomorrah again with Cougs, just finished season 1 again…

  54. Dubjay says:
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    Hey grey,
    I was just offered a doozy in my 12 team H2H keeper league. We keep 10
    Guy offered me TROUT,MARQUEZ and VILLAR for my MERRIFIELD, MONDESI and TREINEN. Probably would only keep trout of the 3. So it’s basically Merrifield/mondesi and treinen(not sure that I’d be keeping him) for TROUT. He wanted to swap my 1st for his 3rd pick as well. Do I have to take this? It’s not often you are offered the best player in the game

Comments are closed.