[brid autoplay=”true” video=”377153″ player=”10951″ title=”2019 Razzball Draft Kit Starting Pitchers”]
Hiyo, whaddup, it’s ya boy, Grey Albright, the King of Swing! Swing standing, of course, for a Swiss National Guard. See, I got this certificate with my Swatch watch–Any hoo! Today is the top 60 starters for 2019 fantasy baseball. You think we’re late into the rankings here, but last year this post included Blake Snell, Jameson Taillon, Patrick Corbin, Trevor Williams, Mike Clevinger and Ryu as guys I told you to draft. In this post alone, you might be able to put together a pitching staff. Let’s do this! Here’s Steamer’s 2019 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2019 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers. All projections listed are mine and I mention where I see tiers starting and stopping. Anyway, here’s the top 60 starters for 2019 fantasy baseball:
41. Rick Porcello – This tier started in the top 40 starters for 2019 fantasy baseball. This tiers ends at Ryu. I called this tier, “Sideways bosom.” As for Porcello, there’s only one letter separating boring from boing, which is how I feel about Porcello. He walks a fine line between boring and boing. All of these guys really. Maybe I should’ve named this tier that, but when you’re deciding between boring/boing and sideways bosom, you go sideways bosom. 2019 Projections: 13-8/3.92/1.22/194 in 201 IP
42. Chase Anderson – This is wild. Here’s what I said last year, “Confessional! *aims camcorder at funky chair in front of funky wall, sits in chair* Hey, so we just got home from DA CLUB, and Cassie has been bugging me all night. I think we’re gonna need a roommate meeting. Also, I didn’t expect to like Chase Anderson this year. Steamer hates him, and, while I don’t listen to everything Steamer says, they are the best projections in the business, so it would be foolish to not at least–COULD YOU BE QUIET OUT THERE, I’M DOING MY CONFESSIONAL! Sorry, Malliq got crazy drunk and is actin’ a fool. Where was I? Anderson! Right! Steamer projects him for 4.91 ERA. Um, okay. *mimes walking out of the room* Don’t want that, right? I hear ya, but his velocity went up by two miles per hour, and the changes look legit from when he was a 6.5 K/9 to a 8.5 K/9 guy. Okay, I’m gonna go see if Malliq cleaned the dishes yet. Peace.” And that’s me quoting me! So, turned out Steamer and I were both right. More right than Malliq, at least. Geez, that guy! I was right because Anderson is way better than a 4.91 ERA pitcher (his ERA was 3.93 last year). Steamer was right because his Ks did come back down. This year, Steamer’s back to its old tricks and he’s projecting a 4.97 ERA. Not sure whose calculator Anderson slept with, but 4.97 ERA is as absurd a projection as 4.91 was last year. UPDATE: Out of the rotation, don’t draft him. 2019 Projections: 11-9/3.84/1.22/154 in 178 IP
43. Rich Hill – A Hill is more like a single sideways bosom that’s made sideways again. A naturally recurring sideways bosom? Hmm, I think I’m lost in this analogy, and I never want to find my way out. Also, what I say in Ryu’s blurb below. 2019 Projections: 9-5/3.26/1.10/145 in 128 IP
44. Hyun-Jin Ryu – Two things about this tier: Every pitcher in this tier could be called is a solid bet for 7+ K/9 and 3 or lower BB/9, which is a safe, and reliable option. And, if you don’t look at every number 3 as a sideways bosom, I’ve failed you. Now, with that said (Grey’s turning this ship around), Ryu and Rich Hill have higher upside than a 7+ K/9 and 3 or lower BB/9, but they also struggle to stay healthy for 120 innings. In the end, similar value as other guys in this tier, but in fewer innings. 2019 Projections: 9-4/2.98/1.08/122 in 131 IP
45. Nick Pivetta – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Kikuchi. I call this tier, “Drinking fizzy drinks that lift you off the ground.” By this tier name I mean, there’s risk in drinking fizzy-lifting drinks, you might run your head into a ceiling fan, but, without drinking those fizzy-lifting drinks, you’ll never know what it’s like to fly like Charlie and his grandfather in Willy Wonka. The pitchers in this tier are risky, but they have big time upside. I’ll go over at a later point on how to draft a pitching staff, but, unless you were born yesterday, you can tell this is around a fantasy number three but with a lot more risk than the previous tier. Even maybe a fantasy number four. If you were born yesterday, you have amazing reading comprehension. I don’t know why the cliché “born yesterday” is meant as a dig to say someone is easily manipulated, when clearly if you were born yesterday and found yourself doing anything other than napping for 22 hours, I’m impressed by you! As for Pivetta, I already gave you a Nick Pivetta sleeper. It was written while giving “The Talk” to a random kid at a bus stop. 2019 Projections: 12-9/3.86/1.25/208 in 184 IP
46. Yusei Kikuchi – Here’s what I said this offseason, “(Kikuchi) signed with the Mariners. He reminds me of every other Japanese pitcher, but not in a raycess way. He reminds me of Miles Mikolas too, who was only Asian after being reborn. It’s something about Asian pitchers, and non-Asian pitchers who go to Asia and return; they exercise some serious control. Maybe it’s the culture. I had a robot watch Gung Ho 15,000 times and tell me what it thinks and now the robot is speaking super-racist. Yo, robot, why are you so culturally inappropriate? “I have no culture of my own, so I adopt yours. And I kill puppies.” AHHH!!! ROBOT MURDERER!!! RUN!!! Or roll your swivel chair towards a door if running is too much for you. Kikuchi, which is going to be fun for me to say this year, comes with a lot less fanfare than Ohtani, but I do think he can be better than him, pitching-wise, in his first full season. Ohtani is a unicorn in Babe Ruth’s body, we all know this. Kikuchi reminds me of Mikolas and Ryu and others in that mold. He’s a decent strikeout guy, but not blown people away, while also having impeccable command. I’m definitely looking to draft him this year, then passing him up every other year when he fails to throw 130 IP in consecutive seasons because the Japanese also completely overwork their starters. In fact (Grey’s got more!), the Mariners have already said Kikuchi will only throw an inning or so every fifth or sixth start to try to preemptively avoid the inevitable arm injury that befalls every Japanese starter.” And that’s me quoting me! 2019 Projections: 9-7/3.67/1.18/136 in 151 IP
47. Kyle Freeland – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Gausman. I call this tier, “Girls hit your hallelujah (whoo).” That’s a line from a Bruno Mars song that if you heard it, you can’t unhear it, and it will dig into your psyche until you’re singing it too. That’s this tier. All of these guys who’ve heard about before, and you have faint sense they’re good, and, whether you like them or not, you’re drafting them because you know their names. They are all ear worms, and not in a good way. As for Freeland, fully expected to like Freeland this year, but when I started to dig into his numbers, my excitement did a spit take with vomit. Yes, his K/9 and BB/9 fit nicely in the tier above that was loaded with 7+ K/9 and 3-ish BB/9 guys, but he’s in Coors. I know, no dur, but that takes the shine off him and no good Freeland goes unpunished. 2019 Projections: 10-11/3.92/1.34/156 in 189 IP
48. Alex Wood – Here’s what I said this offseason,”(Wood was) the 3rd (2nd?) piece in the Reds/Dodgers trade. By the way, I was going through the Reds’ depth chart, and I found the Reds have a guy named Fidel Castro in their minor leagues. If he ever plays against the Yankees, he better watch out for exploding cigars. From a real baseball standpoint, the Reds did a positive just getting rid of Homer Bailey. They could’ve sent Bailey and a billion dollars to the Dodgers and it would’ve been a win. As for Wood, though, well, Cincy is not going to be a friendly place for him.” And that’s me quoting me! 2019 Projections: 8-10/3.89/1.26/142 in 162 IP
49. Yu Darvish – We are going deep in a sub-section of a tier I could call, “Cubs are contenders? Are you sure about that, because their pitching seems more dicey than a Ginzu knife.” As for Yu… “Siri, what do we think about Yu?” “Your feelings for me are complicated.” “You know me so well.” 2019 Projections: 9-10/3.81/1.31/144 in 128 IP
50. Mike Foltynewicz – Like Wheeler, he also saw an increase in his velocity and looks now like the pitcher he was always meant to be. I know what you might be thinking, because I’m thinking it too. This ranking is high. Don’t worry if the price is too richnewicz for you to draft him, there’s about fifteen guys who could be next year’s Foltynewicz to draft later. Every year there’s 15. No more, no less. I keed, but, yes, there’s lots of guys to draft later, so no fear, Mr. Belvedere, who missed a week of work because he sat on his testicles. UPDATE: Turns out Faultywirewitz’s wires are faulty, after all. He’s missing the beginning of the season, and, at this point, we have no idea if that means he’ll return by Cinco de Mayo or a day much later than that in the calendar year when you will just be eating mayo. I’ve removed 50 IP from his projections and removed him from the pitchers’ pairings, i.e., I’m no longer drafting him. 2019 Projections: 11-8/3.57/1.13/151 in 147 IP
51. Jon Lester – Did I purposely put all the Cubs’ starters together? Yeah, dude, there’s some intention to these rankings. Could I have put Alex Wood between the Cubs starters and it would’ve been the same diff? Yup, we’re in a tier I’m ignoring in drafts so if they were rearranged, it wouldn’t matter. As for Lester, Google “Saberhagenmetrics” and learn about that field of baseball mathematics, because it applies here. 2019 Projections: 12-9/4.06/1.32/156 in 176 IP
52. Jose Quintana – Somewhere around this point in the rankings I started laughing thinking about how many starters I wanted no part of. Here’s something I’ve mentioned before and will mention again at some point. You need around six starters for your fantasy team, depending on the league depth, and might be able to get by with as few as two or three. So, I will rank about 140 starters, and you can dislike 134 of them, as long as you draft the correct six. People don’t seem to get nervous about outfielders, maybe because you have other hitters on your team, but if you don’t have a solid fourth or fifth outfielder, no one cares. You figure you’ll get it off waivers. However, with starters, everyone is so scared. If people don’t have a quality fourth, fifth or sixth starter, panic sets in. Yet, there’s always starters on waivers. As for Quintana, bleh, you know him! 2019 Projections: 11-11/4.12/1.28/169 in 182 IP
53. Jon Gray – It takes a special kind of son of a bitch to have a 9+ K/9 and 2-something BB/9 and get on my Do Not Draft list, but Gray is just that son of a bitch. Apologies to all mothers reading, except my mother. You created this monster! As in me. I’m the monster. And this other Gray. 2019 Projections: 9-10/4.24/1.34/191 in 178 IP
54. Sean Newcomb – His 2nd half ERA makes me lie to passing strangers and tell them I am crying because I was just cutting onions. I know, I know, ERAs are dumb, but Newcomb’s 2nd half ERA was dumb terrible and so was his xFIP for the 2nd half, and even more alarming, so was his 1st half xFIP. Without luck, Newcomb wouldn’t have had any kind of decent 1st half either. *makes kaboom sound and universal sign of a mushroom cloud with my hands* Newcomb. 2019 Projections: 9-12/4.09/1.35/177 in 182 IP
55. Kevin Gausman – Yes, we are risking not being in on Gausman when he finally breaks out. We’re also reaping the benefits of not owning him for the fifth straight year of sub-par stats while we wait for him to breakout. Enjoyed the ride, Gausman. You did me more wrong than most, but not as much as Pineda. 2019 Projections: 10-9/4.18/1.31/177 in 183 IP
56. Tyler Skaggs – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 80 starters for 2019 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “An obstetrician screaming, ‘Talk about a hole in one!'” By the tier name I mean, it might depend on the context on whether you should be excited. Is the obstetrician in the delivery room or the golf course? As for Skaggs, kinda shocked I didn’t write a Tyler Skaggs sleeper post, but if he breaks out I will point back to this and how I wanted to write a sleeper post on him. If he gets injured again and/or doesn’t perform, I will ignore this completely. Welcome to the world of being a fantasy sports ‘pert. When you’re right, you scream it from the mountaintop. When you’re wrong, you descend into your mother’s basement and pretend someone else said that really stupid thing. Also, I go over Skaggs in the video at the top of the page. 2019 Projections: 11-9/3.87/1.31/156 in 152 IP
57. Kenta Maeda – The epitome of this tier. I think Maeda is a number two, in the good way, or a useless piece of garnage. That’s garnage. As in, garbage found after carnage. It’s highly specialized, strewn garbage with toxic waste on it. Dave Roberts says Maeda will be in the rotation to start the year, but I could easily see him start Maeda on April 8th, then say, “I only said to start the season, he’s out of the rotation as of April 9th. Happy Easter to everyone except Sandy Koufax, or is that Bill Nye?” If Maeda is in the rotation for 160+ innings, which he could easily throw, he’s a fantasy number two. Only Dave Roberts in his infinitesimal wisdom could even think Maeda shouldn’t be in the rotation all year. He has a career 9.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and 3.66 xFIP. Basically, a borderline top 20 starter. I nearly wrote a sleeper post about him too. How the hell is he being drafted 94th overall for starters? Rhetorical! 2019 Projections: 12-9/3.61/1.22/138 in 131 IP
58. Brandon Woodruff – As with everyone in this tier, I nearly wrote sleeper posts for all of them. I’m actually impressed with my own self-restraint that I didn’t rank Woodruff in the top 10 overall. Quickly, some wonderful: His K/9 was 10, he throws 95 MPH, his walk rate is barely 3 (only when rounding up) and his xFIP was 3.36. Now, for the cherry on top, he had a 53.1% ground ball rate. That’s just barely out of the top ten for starters. It’s mostly coming off his 95 MPH fastball. So, Ks and ground balls? Dude, when do we go to Vegas and get married? Yes, I’m married already and not gay, but why are we letting these things stand in our way? I like that Woodruff! WUT. He could be a top 20 starter. That sentence is drool-worthy, because I wrote it with drool hanging from my mouth. So, what’s the down side?! He had a 2.03 ERA (2.34 xFIP) and 11.5 K/9 as a reliever, and 6.32 ERA (5.10 xFIP), 7.5 K/9 as a starter. I might’ve just ranked my first middle reliever. Though, his teammate, Josh Hader will be ranked above him in my top 500, once I release that. 2019 Projections: 8-3/3.09/1.21/135 in 124 IP
59. Marco Gonzales – He walks so few guys, has had slightly more Ks previously, and is only 27. He could make his 7.5 K/9 work for him, or add more Ks, and be a huge breakout still. 2019 Projections: 10-8/3.66/1.20/159 in 186 IP
60. Steven Matz – If he didn’t lose velocity and have a mediocre strikeout rate, he’d be ranked about forty spots higher in the pitching ranks. I know what you’re thinking, “You can not spell legendary without Grey. I understand this point fully, but saying if a guy didn’t lose velocity and have no Ks, he’d be ranked higher is like saying, ‘My wife would be Christie Brinkley, if she didn’t look a female walrus — a galrus?'” First of all, galrusses are cute, bruh. 2nd of all, yes, you’re right, normally. For Matz, last year, Matz had 8.9 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and 4.13 xFIP, while upping his fastball velocity to 93.4 MPH (thankfully, not kilometers per hour) and had a slider that was around 35th best in the majors. He also won five games and lost 11, which obviously means nothing, but it made me chuckle. Five games won in 30 starts. I mean, jeebus, Mets. Mets’ run support was like a pre-waffle Nike sole that Prefontaine wore for seven years. Any hoo! Matz can easily have a ~3.40 ERA with a little luck as he can have a 4.40 ERA. 2019 Projections: 8-10/3.91/1.23/171 in 173 IP
