The royal we already went over all the hitters for 2019 fantasy baseball rankings.  That’s not the “royal we” as that term usually implies.  It was me writing it alone while wearing a Burger King crown.  I refuse to draft a top starter where they are usually drafted.  Unlike hitters, you need six starters, depending on your league depth.  Simple math tells us there’s plenty of starters to go around.  Simple Math also says, “Stop putting words in my mouth!”  Simple Math has an attitude problem.  Simple Math says, “Try counting on your fingers without me!”  In most leagues, there’s a ton of pitchers on waivers that can help you — all year.  Not just in April.  With the help of the Stream-o-Nator, you can get by with, say, three starters while streaming the rest.  There’s also the fact that three stats by starters are difficult to predict due to luck.  Wins, ERA and WHIP are prone to change, depending on which way the ball bounces and whether or not the guys behind the pitchers can score runs.  Finally, the best starters can give you four categories.  The best hitters can give you five categories.  As always, where I see tiers starting and stopping are included and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2019 fantasy baseball:

1. Max Scherzer – Went over him in the top 20 for 2019 fantasy baseball.

2. Jacob deGrom – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Snell.  I call this tier, “Dan Hartman’s Greatest Hit.”  By the tier name, I’m, of course, talking about the song I Can Dream About You by Dan Hartman.  Daniel Earl Hartman was born December 8th, 1950 and died March 22nd, 1994, dying before ever knowing O.J. Simpson was a killer, unless O.J. killed him too.  In Mr. Hartman’s short life, he graced our eardrums with, not just his greatest hit, of course, but the greatest hit of the 1980’s, 90’s and maybe 00’s, according to Soundscan and Moms.  The song’s longing on a backdrop of an uptempo number typifies this tier because I can dream about these pitchers, but I can’t hold them tonight.  Yes, I love the pitchers in this tier.  They are great.  There, I said it.  But I will never own them.  If you owned Aaron Nola, Trevor Bauer, Blake Snell, Patrick Corbin and Jameson Taillon last year, you would’ve walked away with your league’s pitching categories and not drafted any top starters.  Am I cherrypicking?  Yes, just like you could’ve cherrypicked last year’s pitchers based on my suggestions!  You could’ve had Clevinger, Trevor Williams, Ryu, J.A. Happ and Miles Mikolas and not drafted one starter before 175 overall.  I love top pitchers, but you do not need them.  In some leagues, you could do fine NOT drafting ANY starters.  Yes, I brought out the caps.  I’m not only talking about H2H leagues where you can carry only relievers.  I’m talking 10 or 12-team roto leagues where you can stream starters.  Maybe you own one starter and stream five spots.  Maybe you own two guys and stream four spots.  Maybe you drink seven cups of coffee and stream all day.  Even if you want to draft an entire rotation and hold them (or try to), you don’t need a guy from this tier.  There’s plenty of options later to fill out your rotation so you’re competitive in leagues where you can’t stream.  I’m not suggesting you Reggie Roby starters.  I’m telling you to Reggie Roby top starters.  Concentrate on your hitting while these guys are being drafted.  By the way, this story from I Can Dream About You’s Wiki page is crazy:  The original I Can Dream About You was sung by an unknown guy at Radio Shack, but the musical director of the album the song appears on says, “But then when Dan Hartman heard it, I don’t know what happened next, but I know that he took that guy’s voice off and he put his own on, and he had a hit with it. Hollywood is a very slippery place.”  A guy from Radio Shack?!  HAHAHAHAHAHAHA–breathe, Grey, breathe!  I mean, holy crap.  As for deGrom, he’s great yadda3.  2019 Projections: 16-6/2.66/0.95/264 in 218 IP

3. Chris Sale – Everything’s relative, as they say at 23andMe, and take this with a grain of salt, as they say in Charlie Morton’s household, but Sale’s 2nd halves have not been good dating back to 2015.  His 1st halves are so damn good that it’s more than made up for them.  Of course, last year’s 2nd half was just injured.  I see an early sell candidate for July of this year.  Or to misquote The Sixth Sense, I see dead arms.  2019 Projections: 15-5/2.41/0.97/246 in 171 IP

4. Justin Verlander – I was thinking about saying something to the effect, if Verlander’s made it this far, at the age of 36, I can’t imagine him ever falling off, then I remembered, we already saw Verlander fall off.  In 2014, he looked like he got old.  He threw 200+ IP and had a 6.95 K/9 and a 4.54 ERA, and seemed all but destined for the dustbin.  If he continued that decline, would he be a future Hall of Famer?  I don’t know, but, as miracles sometimes show up in the weirdest of places, covered by pine tar, he reemerged on the Astros.  2019 Projections: 16-8/2.88/0.97/276 in 207 IP

5. Blake Snell – Dan Hartman doesn’t even do my feelings on Snell justice when I think about how I won’t own Snell for about seven to ten years, until he starts to fall off.  I’m holding a hand on a car window as rain drips down the glass, giving the impression I’m crying.  Finally, I whisper, “Snell ya later.”  2019 Projections:  15-6/2.76/1.00/240 in 195 IP

6. Gerrit Cole – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Nola.  I call this tier, “Butter deodorant.”  You could use butter as thigh grease for when you wear corduroys or you could show that milk in your fridge what it could’ve been.  Or use butter as substitute margarine.  Butter chapstick?  Sure!  But butter as deodorant?  Just not a good use of butter.  Choosing a pitcher in this tier is butter deodorant.  Just not a good use of a high draft pick. As for Cole, answer:  You and me both.  Question:  Who’s surprised I ranked Cole this high?  Sorry, I’ve been falling asleep to Jeopardy on Netflix and it has obviously affected me.  Better than when I was falling asleep to a yule log.  *shooting up in bed* “DO YOU SMELL SMOKE?”  Cole’s Ks went up to 12.4 K/9, and it doesn’t appear to be an aberration.  His swinging strike rate and velocity back up gains.  All he needed apparently was to lose Ray Searage, the Human Wet Blanket.  “Throw to contact,” says Ray Searage.  I say, “Hey, Ray Searage, how about you shut the f*ck up?”  Of course, this is all lip service since I don’t plan on drafting Gerrit.  2019 Projections: 16-7/2.81/1.02/254 in 204 IP

7. Corey Kluber –  He feels on the precipice of a cliff dive.  Maybe he’ll take a Cliff Lee dive and suck on the Indians, then get traded to the Phils and turn it back on.  Either way, Kluber’s Ks went way down last year, his velocity fell a little and he started throwing his cutter an insane number of times.  Thankfully, the pitch works well.  Stop being modest, Kluber’s cutter!  It’s the best cutter in baseball and one of the best pitches overall.  So, yeah, he could be fine, but there’s a few light warning signs.  Of course, none of this means anything because you should not be drafting a top starter.  2019 Projections: 14-8/3.03/1.01/224 in 219 IP

8. Aaron Nola – For full disclosure, I originally had Nola in the above tier.  Again, doesn’t matter, won’t draft him, but Nola’s got one tiny problem, and not “tiny” like every ironically named man, Tiny, who could bench press an Xterra.  It’s tiny tiny, but he threw 212 1/3 IP last year, a lot for him, and his September ERA was his worst month.  2019 Projections:  16-10/3.05/1.02/215 in 210 IP

9. Trevor Bauer – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Carrasco.  I call this tier, “The Foaming Lips.” No, not The Flaming Lips, it’s the Foaming Lips.  This is not foaming lips like a blue waffle–DON’T GOOGLE THAT!  SERIOUSLY.  I WILL STOP THE CAPS WHEN YOU MOVE AWAY FROM YOUR GOOGLE.  PROMISE ME YOU WON’T GOOGLE IT.  OKAY, GONNA TRUST YOU.  As soon as I went to lowercase you Googled it, didn’t you?  Suit yourself, it’s your eyes you need to wash out.  This is foaming lips like a rabid dog who wants to draft these guys.  I will absolutely draft someone in this tier, but I won’t reach for them.  If they make it to around 50 overall, or under $30, then I’d happily draft one.  See, I don’t punt all starters, just the very top ones.  As for Bauer, my lips are so foamy for him, I’m shaving the pink parts.  Speaking of Google, whomever finds this post due to this blurb, is going to be wildly disappointed.  Speaking of whomever, even if it’s used correctly instead of whoever, it sounds dopey, and I have no idea ever when to use it.  Any hoo!  Bauer!  I might be foamy in the mouth like I just gurgled with Listerine because I loved owning him so much last year that I need more, but he’s a lot like Gerrit Cole in that none of his peripherals are pointing to a Geronimo back to earth.  He is a giant douchenozzle IRL, but gorge for fantasy.  2019 Projections:  15-7/3.14/1.08/248 in 202 IP

10. Walker Buehler – Kinda don’t expect Bauer to fall to me in any leagues.  Not expecting to see Corbin around either.  Carrasco?  You seem nice, but likely unavailable.  Buehler though?  I have expectations I’m going to decorate my fantasy team with him, yelling, “Ferris Navidad!”  Here’s what I’m thinking with this ranking, I’m either absolutely bonkers to be ranking him this high because he can’t ever return this value or I’m ranking him exactly where he should be because he will return this value, and maybe more (see Snell from last year).  He is young, but young isn’t bad for pitchers.  Getting a pitcher before there’s a ton of innings on their arms is good.  He had a 9.9 K/9 last year, but regularly was above 11 in the minors.  Hey, it does go up to 11!  His BB/9 was 2.4, which is impeccable command for someone his age with his Ks.  If he can lower that below 2, you will see many, many Cy Youngs for Buehler, and maybe even a couple without his command improving.  He was the 11th best value on his fastball, the 5th best in the league for velocity at 96.  He also has a great slider.  There are only three pitchers with a 10+ runs above average on a fastball with as good a slider as Buehler.  Those three pitchers:  deGrom, Scherzer and Buehler.  He’s combined better with his fastball and slider than everyone else.  Better than Sale, better than Bauer, better than…well, everyone!  That’s my point.  That I keep making.  People often refer to pitchers as a horse on the mound.  Well, I’m hitting the trail with this Walker!  2019 Projections:  15-6/2.82/0.98/198 in 174 IP

11. Patrick Corbin – Here’s what I said this offseason, “(Corbin) signed a deal with the Nats.  I guess that makes him *pinkie to mouth* Nat K’ing Corbin.  The Nats said this move would not preclude them from signing Bryce Harper.  They said this after Harper said, “You’re not signing me.”  Damn, Harper dropping truth bombs.  I’ll drop a truth bomb now about Patrick Corbin, I called him a sleeper last year, and he went out and had his best season of his career.  Any free agents out there want me to call them sleepers?  I will take less than your agents.  Actually, I’ll take whatever you’ll offer.  Free Jiffy Pop?  Done and done!  I often go the Saberhagenmetrics route with pitchers, i.e., if they have a good last year, I don’t love them next year.  Corbin, however, I still like.  He added an above average curveball, and had the league’s best slider.  These two factors helped a 90-ish MPH fastball be around the 25th best fastball in the league.  Play off of an intense slide piece and everything is better.  It’s kinda like how any song at a bar mitzvah is better after The Electric Slide.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Since I wrote that, I ran across this other stat that blew my mind:  He was the lowest in the majors for pitches seen in the strike zone, and the best for making hitters chase.  That means he is not throwing strikes, but the hitters have no idea.  Yummers!  2019 Projections: 14-6/3.09/1.07/226 in 202 IP

12. Carlos Carrasco – Here’s you with a legitimately good question, “What makes you think you’ll be able to draft Carrasco after the 50th spot in a draft or for under $30 in an auction?”  Here’s me shrugging.  I don’t know, you and your smart questions!  Maybe I can’t draft Carrasco.  Just because I have foamy lips and they’re pulsating for sweet love (wow, WUT), it doesn’t mean I have to satisfy my carnal desires and draft a starter in this tier.  I would, but it’s not necessary.   I just loosened up your pitchers’ chastity belt in case your foamy lips are uncontrollable (seriously, I may just write the word moist 500 times for this tier).  2019 Projections:  16-7/3.14/1.10/234 in 202 IP

13. Jack Flaherty – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until German.  I call this tier, “Adulting.”  This could mean different things to different people.  The first time your friends cancel on a Friday night and you’re excited to stay in and watch TV — that’s adulting.  Excitement for decorative towels?  That’s adulting!  A meal not made in a microwave — adulting!  Realizing a 401k isn’t someone abbreviating a Nolan Ryan season — adulting!  (But, sadly, Nolan never had a season of four hundred and one Ks.)  Appreciating dried fruit — adulting!  Enjoying NPR and a glass of wine.  It’s all adulting!  Also, adulting is realizing you need to own a starter.  I know, we have visions of being able to draft only a starter in the 15th round and streaming the rest, and maybe that could work, but it’s responsible to at least try for a starter.  Plus, at a certain point in drafts, there’s not a ton of hitter options so you may as well grab a pitcher.  Okay, more about how to draft a pitching staff in a separate post.  As for Flaherty, he will get you everywhere, I’m told.  Member what I said three blurbs ago or 17,000 words ago about top pitchers with the best fastballs and sliders?  Flaherty has 20.4 combined runs above average, Buehler has 23.7, so right there.  Flaherty is even better in some areas than Buehler.  Flaherty is 13th best swinging strike rate, and tenth best rate of contact outside the zone.  The top 10 is a who’s who of the best pitchers:  Scherzer, Corbin, Bauer, Snell, etc.  It’s not surprising to learn if a guy is forcing contact with pitches outside the zone, the contact is weak.  In fact, his BAA was .198, tenth best in league.  Top ten there is another dais of wonderful.  Siri, what’s the big drawback on Flaherty?  “It will often seem insincere.”   No, goddamnit!  His command was 3.5, which isn’t great.  But in the minors it was much lower, and, if he can get it down in the 2.7 range, we gots ourselves another top 7 starter.  2019 Projections:  14-7/3.17/1.11/215 in 191 IP

14. Stephen Strasburg – I’ve been out on Strasburg for some time now, and, with where I have him ranked, I might not be able to own him this year either, but I’m going back in.  From the sheer excitement of knowing I would draft him, Strasburg high-fived himself and tore his elbow tendon.  Oopsie!  As with any of these guys, but worth mentioning here, if a pitcher injuries himself in the spring, I could drop him without warning and no longer be interested in drafting him.  So, 16 to 1 odds Strasburg doesn’t make out of March healthy?  He’s turning 31 this year and has one year of 200+ IP.  That is a jizzoke, but he was sidelined last year with a pinched nerve in his neck and pitched exceptionally well otherwise, even finishing strong when he returned.  He was 13th for K-BB%, all top 13 are aces.  Actually, case to be made top 30 in that stat are aces, and is one of my favorite stats.  If you’re striking out guys and not walking them, good things will, and often do, happen.  2019 Projections:  15-6/3.08/1.09/186 in 164 IP

15. Mike Clevinger – Indians are currently blowing up their hitting with garbage trades, but their pitching is still going to be so good.  Someone should make a movie about an Indians team that is making lopsided trades and trying to lose, but inadvertently wins.  Not sure what we can call it.  Something about major leagues should be in title.  Let me know if you come up with anything.  So, Clevinger, right, okay, let’s sort by pitchers who threw 200 IP and had the best K/9.  Wow, Clevinger is 7th.  I keed.  Kinda.  He was 7th best K/9 with a 9.3 K/9, but there were only 13 pitchers who threw 200 IP last year.  Quite a time to be alive!  Mike Alivinger!  No?  Okay.  So, sorting by 150 IP, Clevinger is still top 23 for K/9, top 22 for Swinging Strike rate and 21st lowest contact percentage when swinging on all pitches.  If you’re getting people to swing, and they’re not making contact, it’s kinda hard for them to suck.  Jon Gray proved it’s not impossible, but it’s still hard.  Worried Clevinger wore out last year from his innings?  In the 2nd half, he had a 2.31 ERA and 10.3 K/9.  This ranking might be a bit aggressive, but Mike Clevinger sounds like a horror film murderer, so there’s no time to be drafting scared.  2019 Projections:  14-7/3.16/1.10/209 in 204 IP

16. James Paxton – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Have you heard?  The Mariners are rebuilding.  Cool, but haven’t they been rebuilding for the last fifteen years?  Also, is it the wisest decision to tell other teams you’re throwing in the towel in November?  Is that like when you’re a girl and you make a vision board that says you’re going to get a boyfriend and you do?  Or is it more like a guy who throws a PBR into a fountain and makes a wish to get laid?  A girl can find a boyfriend if she’s available.  A guy needs more than optimism, otherwise he’s going home with his hand.  Guess what I’m saying is the Mariners are a bunch of jerkoffs.  With that said, they traded James Paxton to the Yankees, who I do love, but how surprising is it that he’s 30 years old already?  Surprising, right?  Last year was the first time he threw more than 160 innings in a year.  Walter Johnson, you are not.  You’re not even Josh Johnson.  His numbers, as always, were spectacular — 11.7 K/9 (4th in majors), 2.4 BB/9, 3.02 xFIP (4th).  By the by, in his best career year for innings, he didn’t even qualify for those stats in the leaderboard.  I had to sort down to 160 IP.  Meh, 150 insanely good innings is better than 200 innings from an Orioles starter.  Speedball guys don’t age great, but his velocity was still 95 MPH on average last year, which has been his norm, and he had the third best cutter in the majors (8.2), and the top 5 don’t have anywhere near his fastball.  Corey Kluber, for unstints, had 16 wins above average on his cutter, and had a -7 fastball.  Paxton had a 11.6 on his fastball.  We’re talking elite stuff, obviously.  The move to Yankee Stadium and AL East will deflate him a bit, but he can pitch anywhere.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2019 Projections: 14-7/3.64/1.12/206 in 179 IP

17. German Marquez – Me, at some point in June, “I’m never drafting Rockies pitchers again…” pointing to my stomach, “…is what I want it to say on my ulcer,” as I pay a tattoo artist.  Then, rethinking, “On second thought, Jon Gray will be paying for my tattoo.”  This is going to be me looking at a Rockies’ pitcher in drafts:  screaming The Toadies’ Possum Kingdom, “DO YOU WANNA DIE DO YOU WANNA DIE!”  Then, whispering, “So help me, Jesus.”  It was not my intention to go back in on Rockies’ pitchers after the Grayvesty, but I see the Nazi in Exile’s stats and I start homina-homina-homina’ing and I can’t help myself.  German Marquez has the 9th best slider in the majors, and his curve is the 10th best.  Last year, his K/9 was 10.6 with a 2.6 BB/9.  That’s the 11th best difference between Ks and walks.  He had the 8th best xFIP (3.10), hurt by a tad high homer rate and BABIP.  Fairly negligible though.  Or hairy negligee as my autocorrect wants to type.  He had the 19th lowest barrels per plate appearance so BABIP could drop if people make poor contact.  Also, he had the 11th best Swinging Strike rate with the 17th best first pitch strike percentage.  So, ahead of hitters, producing swinging strikes, then if they make contact it’s not good.  Or rather, overall, it is very good.  Sadly, I have to apply White-Out to my stomach tattoo, I want to draft this Rockies starter badly.    2019 Projections: 15-8/3.52/1.19/236 in 202 IP

18. Noah Syndergaard – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the top 40 starters for 2019 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Wearing flip-flops with socks.”  There’s just no excuse for wearing socks with flip-flops unless you are a Polish immigrant or you just took off your shoes and were asked to take out the garbage.  Anywhere else with socks and flips-flops is strictly prohibited.  That’s this tier, strictly prohibited.  As for Syndergaard, I think the Mets were actually smart trying to unload him this offseason.  Of course, they were asking a lot, maybe too much, but Syndergaard’s 2nd half is that of legends, if the legends we are talking about are the part of the map used to interpret a map and the map is of New Jersey and there was soda spilled on the map and because it is sticky it stuck to Chris Christie’s ass.  That kind of legend!  2019 Projections: 14-8/3.34/1.17/178 in 172 IP

19. Luis Severino – Am I weighing 2nd halves too much with this tier?  Yes and no.  Yes, as in, I am weighing them.  No, as in, I’m weighing them and I’m lying by saying, “No, I’m not weighing them too heavily.”  Severino’s ERA was 5.57 in the 2nd half.  I know, his xFIP was 3.06, and better in the 2nd half than 1st, but, like Jose Altuve always says, life is too short.  I cannot draft Severino, and hope his luck corrects itself while sitting on a timebomb labeled, “Michael Pineda.”  UPDATE:   Shut down with shoulder inflammation.  Damn, so far in my tier to avoid in the top 20 starters, Kershaw and Severino are sidelined; Greinke is goofy awful, but always stays healthy (which is what a prognosticator says right before said player is injured), so I need to go 4-for-4 in that tier to make sure my Noah Syndergaard schmohawk doesn’t look dopey.  I docked Severino 20 innings from his projections and — surprise! surprise! — I still would not draft him.  2019 Projections: 12-7/3.42/1.16/173 in 161 IP

20. Zack Greinke – Out of curiosity, I sorted by fastball velocity for Greinke and curiosity killed the cat that was about to draft Grienke.  Velocity isn’t everything.  Ask the seniors at the mall rocking the Kawhi Leonard New Balance sneakers.  “It’s not how fast you get there, it’s that you get there.”  Great when you’re instilling self-esteem in a turtle, not so great for a pitcher who lost two miles of velocity last year.  “Holding on by a string.”  Great for an inspirational cat poster, not great for an aging pitcher.  “That team around him is death.”  Great for a pickup game in hell, not great for Greinke.  2019 Projections: 10-11/3.58/1.12/194 in 206 IP

CONTINUE TO TOP 40 STARTERS FOR 2019 FANTASY BASEBALL

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Tommyjohnmcpon
Tommyjohnmcpon
3 years ago

Having trouble deciding a strategy for my points league the scoring for pitching is a bit different 2 for strikeouts 1 for innings 5 for wins but punishes control -1 for bbs -1.5 for hrs and -1 for Er scherzer and verlander were able to produce their adp but pitchers fall off hard after the aces not producing their adp should I go in after the top tier aces and address the “position scarcity” at sp?

Donkey Teeth
Admin
3 years ago

My German Marquez love letter/article has been waiting to be posted since 1/27. But reading over this, now I just look like a Razzwagoner. Who’s a guy gotta touch & squeeze around here to get their articles posted quicker?

Glad we’re on the same page though, boss!

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Exactly. Reach arounds for everyone!

You drive the Razzwagon so I think you’ll avoid the judgments. The new guy named ‘Donkey Teeth’ has to work a little harder for credibility…if you know what I mean.

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: That’s what my parents thought too

Scott Smith
Scott Smith
3 years ago

I like to make outrageous predictions and then see if they come true. For this year I’ve got Strasburg and Paxton both finishing in the top 6 among pitchers. Paxton will somehow avoid any major injuries and will respond well to the excitement of playing in NYY. 18 wins, 200+ Ks, ERA 3.30 or lower (plus great WHIP and K/9 for those types of leagues). For Strasburg (or Strasbourg in French), I like to think that he was secretly jealous of Bryce Harper and now with Harper playing in Texas or NYY or wherever he ends up, Strasbourg will be able to go off his meds and put together a complete season. Unfortunately, he won’t win many games. 12 wins, 220+ Ks, ERA less than 2.90.

Mike
3 years ago

Top dream-related 80s songs…
1. I Can Dream About You
2. Shattered Dreams
3. Sweet Dreams

Prolly too late for this post, just had to get this off my chest haha. Beautiful reference sir.

Terrence Mann
Terrence Mann
3 years ago

The Rockies are without a doubt the slutty girlfriend we had that drove us nuts. OK, I will date you again but you have to stop dating Holliday and Cargo. They’re just holding us back. She agrees and the sex is wild. Then you go to work the next day and find out she’s dating a different old ass boyfriend from two years ago that you forgot to include in the agreement and in her moral universe the whole thing seems totally above board.

Slut.

Nightpandas
Nightpandas
3 years ago

Grey

Obp keeper trade

Devers vs Inciarte

Inciarte this year but Devers down the road? I’ve got lots of power but little speed…thinking Ender might be the answer…doesn’t kill other cats

Racehorse
Racehorse
3 years ago

Grey –

M Ozuna for Andujar?

Racehorse
Racehorse
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Thanks, Grey!

Sorry for the ambiguous questions — juggling work (I work in healthcare), my dynasty team, and your mighty blog.

I hate when patients get in the way of working my fantasy team!

Racehorse
Racehorse
3 years ago

@Grey: Thanks, Grey !

Racehorse
Racehorse
3 years ago

Marcel Ozuna for Jose Peraza ?

Big Ticket
Big Ticket
3 years ago

German carried me for a while last year, but I’m still nervous. Just feels like Sev is a safer floor from a redraft standpoint. No?

Also, OBP dynasty, how do you rank … Eloy, Conforto, Adalberto? Thanks Grey!

Dave D
Dave D
3 years ago

Per the video: Skaggs is all yours. 245 is too rich an ADP for a band-aid boy. This Sciosciapath is in on Heaney and Barria, possibly Cahill, but too many good bats around 245 or more durable arms at least. Tropeano is a decent deep sleeper in DC after round 40 IMO.

Dave D
Dave D
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

Two years ago I was high on him but he has done little but disappoint. He’s been very erratic/inconsistent. Whenever he has shown glimmers of something good he tanks or gets hurt. Sorry to burst your bubble, but I hope I’m wrong. Lets check in on him again in late June. My guess is he’s on the DL or just followed up an 8k/1bb peformance with a 4k/4bb 10 hit performance.

Jim
Jim
3 years ago

Anyone want to lend me some ideas. I can Keep six of Judge 28, andujar 28, Bauer 28, soto 28, Flaherty 28, mondesi 28, Nola 12, clevinger 19, mikolas 22, trout 1, jd mart 2?

As it stands I’m keeping trout in round one because I have the last pick, Bauer, Flaherty, judge, Soto in the last four rounds and then Nola in round 12. I have all of here extra good keepers that I can’t keep abs anyone you trade for you have to keep in this league. Someone offered me Sevy in the last round for Flaherty, clevinger and mondesi. Not sure if I want to take that even though I can’t keep everyone. I’ve also considered offering Nola and trout for j ram and buehler both would be last round keepers. Love trout but would you keep any of these others ahead of him with rounds considered and would you take either Of these trades? I do love Flaherty. Really would love to change trout round one into Jose ram last round.

Jim
Jim
Reply to  Jim
3 years ago

@Jim: and it is a points league.

Jim
Jim
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: hmmm interesting. I won the league last year by trading for the late round value keepers. You wouldn’t look to move trout for more of this value. I look at it like if I can trade Trout in round one for Jose ram in the last round and still draft someone like machado with my first pick then hats much better than trout and the 28th round guy. The league is heavy on pitching should I trade bola for buehler and not keep mondesi? Mondesi is a little scary to me. Everyone loves him perhaps a bit too much no?

Jim
Jim
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: I’m saying I could probably trade trout round 1 keeper and bola round 12 keeper for Jose Ramirez round 28 keeper and buehler round 28 keeper. But I would have to not keep mondesi probably if I did that because in your scenario I’m not keeping Nola im keeping mondesi. Thanks for the advice btw.

Nitro
Nitro
3 years ago

Grey, I know I am cheating a little, but have to about Luke Weaver. Do you see him as a bounce back or more of the same as last year. Thanks. Love the rankings…

Nitro
Nitro
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Tov!! Toda!!

TobiasFunkeAnalRapist
TobiasFunkeAnalRapist
3 years ago

Great work my man, looking for some advice for my 12 team h2h cats league 6×6 with QS and obp as the added categories. You can keep guys for a max of 4 years and the price goes up 3 dollar per year and it’s an auction draft. Also just 3 OF, daily moves league, 2 util, 3 P spots daily, no MI or CI spots, 1 catcher. I can keep 9, looking for what years you would choose for my remaining guys. Guys already on contract:
Trout, 2 more yrs at 50/yr
Arenado, 2 more at 32/yr
Bregman, 2 more @ 10/yr
These are the guys I can sign this year and the options I’m considering:
Acuna and Soto, 4 years each at 19/yr, think that’s a nobrainer
Albies, 3 years at 17/yr or 4 years 20/yr
Mondesi, 3 years at 16/yr, or 4 yrs 20/yr
Buehler, 2 yrs at 13/yr or 3 yrs 16/yr
Taillon, 1 yr at 16, 2 at 19/yr.
Thanks and keep up the good work.

TobiasFunkeAnalRapist
TobiasFunkeAnalRapist
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Albies at 3 for 17 or 4 for 20?

TobiasFunkeAnalRapist
TobiasFunkeAnalRapist
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: No worries, thanks again.

Paul
Paul
3 years ago

Keepers are Betts, Machado, Springer, Albies, and Carrasco.

For my final Keeper should I go with Castellanos, Votto, or Diaz.

Paul
Paul
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: 10 Teams – not as high as I would be on Votto because Goldy (my fav player that I traded for Mookie last offseason) is in the Auction. All my Keepers are free except Machado at $22, so money isn’t really an issue for me. $260 Budget.

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
3 years ago

So how’s my guest house looking? I just need the go ahead and I’ll get a hold of Fred Sanford and Jeb Clampet to drive my stuff out to LA.

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Will also keep the room warm in those long So Cal winters..hehe

i’ll have my sister bring over some of her super model friends to try on the fur.

shhh don’t tell Cougs, but the girls will have no pants on…hahaha

Peacecoast
Peacecoast
3 years ago

is Taillon coming up soon? I am keeping him and Mikolas. Hoping to get Carrasco to anchor the staff.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Peacecoast
3 years ago

@Peacecoast:

I’d be wary of Mikolas

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
Reply to  OaktownSteve
3 years ago

@OaktownSteve:

Oh, shocking. Another post dogging a Cardinals player from guess who!

Cub fan alert.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Harley Earl
3 years ago

@Harley Earl:

I like the Cardinals. I like Flaherty. I owned him on every team last year. Flaherty I think I have a case for fading a player a lot of people are going to take as an SP1 or 2 at the worst.

Mikolas is Kyle Hendricks at best and I don’t actually think he’s as good as Hendricks…if you want me to get a Cub involved.

Peacecoast
Peacecoast
Reply to  OaktownSteve
3 years ago

@OaktownSteve: nice analysis there, oh wait there was none.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Peacecoast
3 years ago

@Peacecoast:

On Mikolas? I can give it to you if you want, but go take a look. There are so many red flags.

Peacecoast
Peacecoast
Reply to  OaktownSteve
3 years ago

@OaktownSteve: I mean obviously he’s not gonna have a 2.8 ERA again. But his K rate came up by the end of the season and the rest of his peripherals showed he was solid. He throws 95+. Sure he is older and came from Japan. I am curious as to what your red flags are.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Peacecoast
3 years ago

@Peacecoast:

K rate came up a little, but it’s still not very good and none of his pitches by numbers or by view look like they’ll be above average swing and miss.

Since 2013 there have only been 25 seasons in which a pitcher has a GB% of 49% or better and a BABIP against of .279 or better, which is what Mikolas had last year. Only 3 pitchers appear on the list more than once. Arrieta, Sonny Gray and Garrett Richards. The average BABIP against for those 49%+ seasons was .298.

His exit velocities and barrel rates don’t look like they support him being so good at managing contact that he’ll have a low BABIP.

Again, I don’t think he’s a bad pitcher. But with his Ks, everything has to go right or he’s nowhere near a top 100 pick where he’s going in NFBC (88). If he has negative BABIP luck, he could pitch where FIP has him at a 4.00 ERA and he’s a huge bust.

Peacecoast
Peacecoast
Reply to  OaktownSteve
3 years ago

@OaktownSteve: ya I should mention I am keeping him in the 24th round. I agree on him being overvalues as is.

Bitter Beerface
Bitter Beerface
Reply to  OaktownSteve
3 years ago

@OaktownSteve: Here I agree, Oaktown. Mikolas is a bit scary. 6.55 K/9 jumps out. 31 years old this season but low mileage. XFip 3.67 for a contact pitcher, looks good actually. 0.279 BABIP kind of in line with his style. 50% GB rate.

Mikolas is tough to measure. I’d be looking mid rounds to draft him but it’s tough to pull the trigger. That k-rate, gross. Hendricks is a great comp to Mikolas.

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
Reply to  Bitter Beerface
3 years ago

@Bitter Beerface:

For the record, I wouldn’t touch Mikolas either. I just find it interesting that a certain someone likes to tear down the Cardinals for no reason.

knucks
knucks
Reply to  Harley Earl
3 years ago

@Harley Earl: Dood. Are you okay?

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
Reply to  knucks
3 years ago

@knucks: I forgot to take my meds today. And when I don’t take my meds, I’m an angry bastard.

Flaherty forever!!

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
Reply to  OaktownSteve
3 years ago

@OaktownSteve: not that he needs defending, but Oaktowns analysis is usually very good. He’s certainly not a Cardinals hater, and he pretty much defined for us how to dominate RCLs a few years back. I disagree with him on Flaherty, but I’d trust him a lot further than I can a sore ass Cardinals homer who hasn’t taught me anything.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

RON SANTO IS MY LORD AND SAVIOR

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: I have no idea. I’m just jumping in on the Haterade.

knucks
knucks
Reply to  The Great Knoche
3 years ago

@The Great Knoche: Da fuq? OTS catching some steam today.

Listen man, please continue your insightful comments/analysis. I’m unsure why we aren’t valuing it today. Because you disagree with Grey a bit? I’m confused.

knucks
knucks
Reply to  knucks
3 years ago

@knucks: Not you Knoche, you goddamn cubs fan.

That was suppose to be @OTS obvi

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
Reply to  knucks
3 years ago

@knucks: Haha! God Damn Cubs fan. You doing FCL again this year?

BJFOHOHL
BJFOHOHL
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: God forbid someone have a difference of opinion in here.

BJFOHOHL
BJFOHOHL
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: It’s like I’m trapped in millenial hell in this comment section.

BJFOHOHL
BJFOHOHL
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: I’ve been looking for the re-tweet and like buttons

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
3 years ago

Now you have me thinking about a trade. Keeper league both have 2 years left.
Would u trade $1 Abdujar for $5 Marquez
Or
$! Andujar for $5 Eloy
Or
Neither

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: kinda what I thought. Thanks

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
3 years ago

Flaherty’s BB% was 9.6% (11.4%!!! in the second half). You have him projected for a 3.17 ERA. Since 2013 there have been 103 seasons where a qualified starter has had an ERA of 3.17 or better. Of those seasons, only once has a pitcher had BB% worse than 9.6% and still had an ERA below 3.17 (Robbie Ray 2017). That said, the game is changing and Morton, Bauer, Snell, Cole and Folty all had good 2018 ERA with highish BB rates.

But both from a scouting perspective and a numbers perspective, I don’t think Flaherty is going to maintain that super high K rate that you need to balance the walks. All the projection systems have him at 3.70ish FIP for 2019.

I don’t think he’ll be terrible, but I do think there’s more risk there than you’re seeing.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

But in the minors when he showed better command, the K rate was in the 8.5 range. In the second half when his command went way south the K rate spiked way up. But you can’t have it both ways and say the K rate stays up AND the BB rate just goes down. Those rates are tied together. So you could project him as a high BB/K guy or a guy with lower Ks and better BB rates, but he’s go to show me he can be both. I just see a period of struggle as the league adjusts and he tries to make adjustments back.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

You’re right those would likely still be acceptable numbers, but the odds are against a low ERA and you’re either going to get a High Whip or diminished Ks.

I just think that to hit these projections he’s going to have to be even better than he was last year and I think he’s going to take a step back. That tinkering with command versus whiff can be a tricky dance. Challenging psychologically on a pitcher too, having to make adjustments.

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Exactly. 23 and the pitch grades on change and curve inproved to become slightly above average. It’s only getting better

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

I sort of feel like the opposite. How is it that you can look at last year’s results and project improvement on them when the peripherals point towards regression the other way?

From a probability standpoint, for him to hit your projections, he’d have to maintain the K rate, lower the walk rate all while managing the quality of the contact. It’s not clear to me that with the command he has the skill set is there to do it. If walks come down, Ks will come down and quality of contact will likely go up. I’d prefer to see a year where there are bound to be adjustments that need to be made and I’ll feel more comfortable that there’s a better read on who he is.

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Cub fan alert. smh

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

I did look at the whole year. But let’s pull it apart even further, his FIP by month:

3.76
3.33
4.26
4.56
2.54
4.77

In the magical August he had a .188 BABIP and a 94.3% strand rate. His K and BB rates in that month were really good, but he had a lot of good fortune to be pitching without runners on base. Also his starts in April (5 total) were Pitt, @KC, Mil, @LAD, @Pitt. So some soft games in there.

Again, I’m not saying that he’s a bad pitcher. It’s just that there’s a lot that suggests to me he’s not quite the guy you think he’s going to be.

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
Reply to  OaktownSteve
3 years ago

@OaktownSteve: Yeah, soft games against Milwaukee and LAD. You’re a fucking jackass.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Harley Earl
3 years ago

@Harley Earl:

I didn’t say they were all soft. More than half were tho…

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
Reply to  OaktownSteve
3 years ago

@OaktownSteve: Pitt was in contention as late as August.

One was soft. Two were average and two were difficult.

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
Reply to  OaktownSteve
3 years ago

@OaktownSteve: Besides, what pitcher faces only contenders every start of the season? Such a dumb statement to make.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

I think I was focusing on the whole year and you were giving him a pass on the last month with the tired arm narrative so I went counter-narrative with the lucky August.

I went by the season long BB rate and pointed out that guys with that high of a BB rate don’t often hit numbers like you project for him.

You think he’ll improve possibly across the board this year. I think there will be a step back as he tries to make adjustments so that he can improve. It’s not always a smooth trip.

Something will happen.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: I like love Marquez. I watched him a bunch. Stuff. Pitchability. Command. Eye test. Peripheral. Love him. I asked Magoo is it just coors? And it was pretty much just Coors. One point I heard was hey we liked Jon Gray last year and how did that work.

Marquez did have a 4.74 at home last year. So do you sit him at Coors and if so does that mean his price is too high?

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@OaktownSteve: @Grey: Marquez passes the eye test. Fantastic stuff. But he did have a 4.74 ERA at home last year, as OTS pointed out. The Coors effect is a real thing. There seem to be plenty of people willing to draft him as their SP2 knowing that he’s going to make half of his starts there. Can’t say that I’m one of them. Who’s the last Colorado SP to post consecutive top 20 fantasy seasons? Maybe Ubaldo a decade ago? Probably the only one that I can think of in their franchise history. I’ll let others take that risk.

And I’m with OTS on Flaherty. Reminds me of Chris Archer. Primarily a fourseam/slider guy who relies on hitters chasing outside the zone. When they lay off the slider, the fastball can get knocked around. Ks should be solid. Good situation. Mid-low range SP2 and a borderline top 25 guy. Don’t see him pushing the top 10-15 though.

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: I don’t dislike Flaherty and don’t consider it a slight to compare him to a young Archer. What did Archer have – a 3-4 year stretch as a top 20-25 guy? Never quite made the leap to SP1 though. That’s what I see with Flaherty. Would still consider him at the right price.

Donkey Teeth
Admin
Reply to  Big Magoo
3 years ago

@Grey: @OaktownSteve: @Big Magoo: Archer is a very fair Flaherty comp, but one thing Flaherty has that Archer never did is an elite pitch caller and game manager behind the plate. Archer did put up ace numbers in 2015, but wasn’t able to replicate them in 2016 & 2017. From memory, he was frequently roughed up the third time thru the order in ’16/’17. Having a Molina type behind the plate could have made all the difference for Archer. Don’t underestimate the Molina factor.

BJFOHOHL
BJFOHOHL
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: I got really interested in Robbie Ray’s August and September last year and I said he was over rated and I was told I was a fool and…you know what, it doesn’t matter. That was last year. I’m here for love. We have love

bigbear
bigbear
Reply to  OaktownSteve
3 years ago

@OaktownSteve: Love this back and forth thread! Two titans of the game going toe-to-toe trading legit stat analysis blows.

– Harley for the record – KC, Pitt were both bottom half in scoring. AKA: weak. Go Cubs! :)

Nib High Football rules!

Bitter Beerface
Bitter Beerface
Reply to  OaktownSteve
3 years ago

@OaktownSteve: Gonna agree with Grey on Flaherty. I think he’s a stud, with pedigree, first-round pick out of high school with solid progression at every stop. Fastball is a little light at 93-94, but great control. Slider, curveball. High K/9. I would want him at pick 30 or so though…

Concerns last season: BABIP 0.257, 3.58 XFIP, only 151.0IP. I would avoid until 3rd rd of a 12-teamer mostly due to innings limit probability.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Bitter Beerface
3 years ago

@Bitter Beerface:

I like him long term and I think he’ll be an SP2. Think this will be a down year from him and I don’t see him as a future staple fantasy 1. But it’s not like he’s Miles Mikolas…for instance.

Dom
Dom
3 years ago

10 Team Keeper League, 5×5 roto.
We keep 10 players. I need help deciding on my last two. (I know SAGNF, but in this league closers come at a premium and you need to keep at least one)

1. Freeman (1B)
2. Rendon (3B)
3. Acuna (OF)
4. Bellinger (OF)
5. Springer (OF)
6. Sale (SP)
7. Buehler (SP)
8. Hand (RP)
9. _
10. _
Options
1. Bogaerts (SS)
2. Ohtani (DH)
3. German Marquez (SP)
4. Andujar (3B)

Dom
Dom
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Thanks. We have CI, MI, and 2 Util spots.
I’m thinking of trading Bogaerts for a draft pick. I have two first round picks with Bergman, Turner, Machado, Story, and Mondesi are available.

BJFOHOHL
BJFOHOHL
3 years ago

Started the Last Kingdom. On episode 3. I hope it gets better because its a 7 so far

BJFOHOHL
BJFOHOHL
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: why would I stop watching, you wanted me to watch it

BJFOHOHL
BJFOHOHL
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Ooooh….got it. Don’t have my own opinions

BJFOHOHL
BJFOHOHL
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: well then why didnt you say that and I was messing back. Lots of towel snapping

BJFOHOHL
BJFOHOHL
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: So far the best thing was when he took his Uncle’s bitches head back and dropped it off

BJFOHOHL
BJFOHOHL
Reply to  BJFOHOHL
3 years ago

@Grey: Is this an enhancement ad?

Juan
Juan
3 years ago

Gray,
Head 2 head league. 10 player keeper.
Trade Albies or Moncada for Haniger?
Just now was offered pollock, madbum 4 Blackmon and my #2 for 2020.
Current Roster:
Abreu
Albies
Suare
Torres
Mazara
Blackmon
Hicks
UTL- Moncada
Severino
Snell

Other keeper options-
Tanaka
Bader
Newcomb
Sano

I love seeing snell up there and was hoping severino would be top 10.

Keep up the good work!

TualatinTwoStep
TualatinTwoStep
3 years ago

Hey Grey,

Thoughts on my last couple keepers for my perpetually rebuilding dynasty team? Super deep 12 team, 25 keeper league, standard cat points league, we start 2 catchers, just throwing it out there so you know why Mejia is on my keeper list LOL

For sure keepers:
C Mejia
1B Olsen
2B Goodrum (have Hiura on my minor league roster in this league)
SS Machado
3B None
CI Alonso
MI Correa
OF Pollock
OF N Williams
OF Bader
OF Kike Hernandez
OF O Herrera
UTIL K Tucker
UTIL R McMahon

SP’s Berrios, Snydergaard, MadBum, Lucchesi
RP’s Iglesias, Peralta, Hicks, Strickland

So that’s 21 of my 25 keepers, pick 4 from this motley group:

Bats: Smoak, Cron, Franchy
Arms: Pudge Jr., Urias, Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta

Thanks man!

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
3 years ago

When are RCLs coming? Where’s Truss? Who is doing my laundry?

Also is there a Razz NFBC slow draft planned?

Jim Diffley
Jim Diffley
3 years ago

Glad to have three of the top eleven (DeG, Corbin, and Buehler) in a keeper league but agree not necessary for success.

But NO one turns a phrase like Grey: “maybe you drink seven cups of coffee and stream all day”…..LOL!!! Gotta love it…..well done!

Bitter Beerface
Bitter Beerface
3 years ago

Also, read the twitt exchange between razzball and Bauer. Total douchenozzle indeed!

Why does Trevbra always tweet like he had five too many appletinis at Happy hour?

Peacecoast
Peacecoast
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@FrankGrimes: finished yet [email protected]Grey: I can’t find any tweets between you two

Peacecoast
Peacecoast
Reply to  Peacecoast
3 years ago

@Peacecoast: nvm found it, you did troll him haha.

Crazy J
Crazy J
3 years ago

Kershaw…. let it WHIP!

This list really makes me want to get into some mock drafts. I would love Buehler and Flaherty!

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
3 years ago

I’m off Flaherty this year. His hard hit against in the second half was 40%, which is bottom 10 in the league kind of a number. His walk rate was over 4 in the second half. His fastball was hit pretty hard. It’s got a really low spin rate, for what that’s worth. The pitch mix does give him a lot to work with and the sum of the parts looks better than the whole. The curve is very good. The slider a little over rated to me. I see him sliding back into a solid season but maybe being over ranked for me. More of a 3.45/1.200 with a K rate more like 9.0/9 with some downside risk from there even.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  OaktownSteve
3 years ago

@OaktownSteve:

Buehler I think it’s just a question of innings. Hard to see the Dodgers letting him go over say 180. If he gets to 180 it’s probably solid. Price is so high.

Snell and Bauer are only separated by 5 picks current NFBC. You could take Snell if you wanted but you aren’t getting either past round 3 possibly round 2 in 15 teasers.

Magoo is off Marquez because Coors. I like him. Other 4 teams in that division have good pitchers parks and 3 should be poor to barely average on offense. Helps a little.

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
Reply to  OaktownSteve
3 years ago

@OaktownSteve: Flaherty is real deal. He completely fools hitters. Look at Infield Fly Ball% Its 15-20% at every stop. Elite Swinging strike rate, and his O-Swing% Jumped and the Z-swing percent dropped substantially. So the walks were up in 2nd half, it’s not like he wasn’t missing bats, it will improve.

He’s only 23 and the curve and change are only going to get better. I see Top 10.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  The Great Knoche
3 years ago

@The Great Knoche:

As I’ve said here many times, pitchers who rely on deception and who are coming off a year in which they out pitched their peripherals make me twitchy. Guys get a read on him the more they see him. For me both with the numbers and the visual, Flaherty’s raw stuff doesn’t look like ace stuff. If hitters can manage into fastball counts, the fastball just isn’t that good and he doesn’t have great command with it. Maybe y’all will be right and he will take a step forward. I see a year of adjustments.

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
Reply to  OaktownSteve
3 years ago

@OaktownSteve:

I would argue that Flaherty was a rookie and pitched the most innings he had ever thrown last season. It was quite obvious after his unbelievable August that he was worn out and out of gas for September. Go back and look at those two months. He carried the Cardinals into contention.

You’re not just wrong. You’re out of the solar system wrong.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Harley Earl
3 years ago

@Harley Earl:

So you’re saying you like the Cardinals…

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
Reply to  OaktownSteve
3 years ago

@OaktownSteve:

At least I’m not a Cub fan banging on players from a third-place team for no reason like you.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey

We’ll see on Flaherty. Watched some late season tape on him. Maybe he just wore down. The curve is good but it’s not in Scherzer Kluber slider category as far as swinging and missing. Feel like the hard contact off the fastball and the lack of command are a bad recipe.

NJW
NJW
3 years ago

Grey,

Have a lot of keeper worth players in a H2H dynasty league where you keep by round, but can only keep 5. The no brainers to me are Bregman and Soto, but I am struggling to decide on the last three…any suggestions?

Juan Soto 26
Alex Bregman 19
Cody Bellinger 19
Starling Marte 19
Rhys Hoskins 19
Zack Greinke 11
Ozzie Albies 8
Trevor Bauer 8
J.D. Martinez 4
James Paxton 4
Gerrit Cole 3

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  NJW
3 years ago

@NJW:
i’d keep your top 5 on your list.

FrankGrimes
FrankGrimes
3 years ago

patiently waiting!
for the pairings tool that used
to be called apples?

FrankGrimes
FrankGrimes
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey:

Right!
I an Uggla son of Uggla.

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: As long as you don’t say. I am Sam, Son of Sam

Plesh
Plesh
3 years ago

Grey, Keeper question…standard 5×5 roto, 12 team league, 27 round draft. Keep 2: Bellinger for one more year in round 21, Corbin for two more years in round 19, Flaherty for two more years in round 20, Mondesi for two more years in round 20. I’m leaning Corbin and Flaherty in rounds 19 and 20….do you agree?

Plesh
Plesh
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Thanks…would you do Acuna in round 6 ahead of either?

Plesh
Plesh
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Thanks….love your writing and rankings…and stache! Can’t wait for the season to start.

Five-on-One
Five-on-One
3 years ago

Grey – Don’t disagree with most of your blurbs, but we (I) have grown accustomed to more out-of-the-box thinking from you. There is only one SP in your top 20 (Marquez) that is not in the top 21 over at ESPN. Can ESPN really be getting better at this?

Skip Mcgillicuddy
Skip Mcgillicuddy
3 years ago

Drafting pitching is like forcing yourself to drink water after a heavy night of boozing. Not something you really wanna do, but if you don’t, you’re gonna have a massive headache later on. Nothing worse than a SP staff that gets their tit lit on a weekly basis especially in points leagues. Great post man

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Skip Mcgillicuddy
3 years ago

@Skip Mcgillicuddy: Love the Keith Hernandez “tits lit”.

LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood
LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood
3 years ago

Great write up it was as fun as eating dried fruit.

it is amazing the number of pitchers in the top 15 that i would not trust week to week.

I have to say Flaherty was shaky sometime last year but overall he delivered and he was a bit under the radar you could add/drop him almost at will. i guess everyone knows about him this year.

Draft the hitters.

zeus
zeus
3 years ago

By inverse Rockie SP reasoning I think this will be the year to own Gray.

bigbear
bigbear
3 years ago

My Bue! Love the ranking, hate the ADP. Wished it was lower so I could count on drafting him in the 4th… You know, to backstop burning a 3rd rounder on Vlad!

Initially skipped the German blurb because I’ve got a Coors aversion. Actually, my AA mentor says I should avoid all thinks alcohol related. ***jots down note and checks ADP. Seems to be drafted much later than this ranking. Hmm…*** “Hi. My name is bigbear. I’m an alcoholic. The last time I had a drink was draft night.”

IRL question: How does Kershaw only have two 20+ win seasons? Dudes been a beast for a decade. He even has 3 sub-2.00 ERA seasons! Still think he’s a professional stud until he proves otherwise, but won’t be touching him (again). Hoping someone takes him in the first/second round!

Looking forward to what you have to say/where you’ve got guys like C-Mart, Castillo, E-Rod, the Biebs, Alex Reyes… Even guys like VV and Pineda. I think I’ll have shares of these to start the season.

The sock/flip-flop comment made me laugh. That’s me on trash night. Actually every evening feeding the chickens. Even in snow. hashtaghomesteader

Curious George
Curious George
Reply to  bigbear
3 years ago

@bigbear: you literally listed all the other pitchers I have been targeting in my mocks. Add in Pivetta and Archer for their ultra late Espn rankings and my mostly oblivious leaguemates.

Cram It
Cram It
3 years ago

So if you don’t get someone in the “Foaming Lips” tier, and with figuring Noah, Kershaw, Severino, and probably Paxton are getting drafted high still, you’re saying you’re okay with a Flaherty or Marquez or Clevinger as your ace?

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Grey
3 years ago

@Grey: Yeah, I almost always miss on my “ace” and it’s the deeper picks that keep my pitching afloat. Quintana and Ray burned me everywhere.

Curious George
Curious George
3 years ago

In a keeper league. I get to keep Acuña in the 8th round, Soto in the 23rd, and Vlad in the 24th. Bauer, Buehler, Snell, Corbin, Marquez, and Clevinger all will be kept by leaguemates between rounds 15-24. Given this, where would you suggest I take my first pitcher? Since my keepers are pretty good hitters, would you be at all inclined to take any of your top 8 pitchers?

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Curious George
3 years ago

@Curious George: I don’t see it being any different than a regular draft. So 3 keepers? Meaning you’re starting your draft in the 4th round? And guys aren’t keeping the top 8 pitchers?

bigbear
bigbear
Reply to  Cram It
3 years ago

@Cram It: Sounds like he’d still get a first rounder. But other teams might lose a first rounder depending on if they kept their first rounder from previous years. So Trout may be kept and that team would get skipped in the first round. He’d get skipped in the 8th, 23rd, and 24th rounds.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  bigbear
3 years ago

@bigbear: Gotcha. I can’t follow all these non-conventional drafting rules for some leagues. Just give it to me straight!

Curious George
Curious George
Reply to  Cram It
3 years ago

@Cram It: see below. Also: because of the 2 round penalty, no one in the first two rounds from last year can be kept.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Curious George
3 years ago

@Curious George: I would still take a hitter with my first pick in all likelihood.

bigbear
bigbear
Reply to  Curious George
3 years ago

@Curious George: Depends. But sure.

Curious George
Curious George
Reply to  bigbear
3 years ago

@bigbear: sorry for the confusion. Each team gets 2 keepers. I get 3 for taking first last year. We have a two round penalty for keepers. (I.e.: I drafted Acuña in the 10th last year and will be able to keep him in the 8th this year)

bigbear
bigbear
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