In an incredible turn of events, I’ve done all the infield 2023 fantasy baseball rankings. Less incredible, you’ve read them. It’s like that time your favorite team won because they played better than that other team but you convinced yourself they won because you cheered loudly. When I win the Fantasy Baseball Blogger of the Millennial in 2099, and my frozen head is accepting the award, I’m going to thank you, the readers, but I’m secretly going to be thanking myself. Without me, none of this would be possible. You’re a close second though! Okay, enough ranking of you and me, let’s rank some outfielders! Here’s Steamer’s 2023 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2023 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers. Subscriptions are up and running, and you can already get Rudy’s Draft War Room. Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2023 fantasy baseball:
NOTE: All my rankings are currently available on Patreon for the price of a Starbucks coffee, if you get one of those extra grande frappuccino jobbers. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out over the next month, and get them all now.
NOTE II: Free agents are listed as just that and not yet projected. Once a guy signs, I will write out their blurb and add in projections, or remove them, if they sign in an unfavorable place. They are ranked currently where I think they might be if they sign on for a full-time job.
NOTE III: You can watch us discuss the outfielders here:
1. Julio Rodriguez – Already went over him in the top 10 for 2023 fantasy baseball.
2. Aaron Judge – Already went over him in the top 10 for 2023 fantasy baseball.
3. Yordan Alvarez – Already went over him in the top 10 for 2023 fantasy baseball.
4. Kyle Tucker – Already went over him in the top 10 for 2023 fantasy baseball.
5. Ronald Acuña Jr. – Already went over him in the top 10 for 2023 fantasy baseball.
6. Mookie Betts – Already went over him in the top 10 for 2023 fantasy baseball.
7. Juan Soto – Already went over him in the top 20 for 2023 fantasy baseball.
8. Fernando Tatis Jr. – Already went over him in the top 20 for 2023 fantasy baseball.
9. Mike Trout – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Schwarber. I call this tier, “Himmy Skosheeonit.” Himmy’s last name is pronounced Skosh-he-on-it. Himmy’s claim to fame is one little bit of movement above him and he’s on the top 20 for 2023 fantasy baseball. All of these guys are a skosh off the top 20, but they’re not Himmy Skoshheeoffit, that guy’s not even related to them. If Himmy Skosheeonit had a bit better track record or health history, and Himmy Skosheeonit would be on the top 20. Just a skosh away? No, Himmy Skoshaway isn’t a real person. These guys are Himmy Skosheeonit.
As for Trout, is this the first time since his rookie year he wasn’t in the top 20? Hmm. No relation to Himmy. I think it is, without doing any actual research, and just thinking on it for seven seconds. Even last year, coming off an eight-homer season, and I ranked him in the top 20 overall. So, then he bounces back with 40 homers, and I rank him as a Himmy Skosheeonit. Ain’t right, I tell ya. This past year we got the very not-fun reveal that he has a back condition, that will knock him out every season for the rest of his career. Well, the Angels and Trout didn’t say that in so many words, but it absolutely will. Going into last preseason, a 140-game season was still a possibility, now it’s off the table. While 120 games from Trout is still as good as any 120-game stretch from anyone, it will only be 120 games, and any awkward movement for him will knock him out for a month or two. Plus (as if you needed more), as long as Ohtani is there, the DH spot is taken. Though, one trade this July and Ohtani’s gonna be Himmy Skoshheeofftheangels. 2023 Projections: 86/36/81/.279/1 in 423 ABs
10. Michael Harris II – Every time I see his name I think MH2, and for some reason, because my brain is dumb, that makes me think of Megahertz, and I’m like Ben Franklin dangling a key on a kite-rope, like a trapeze artist who gets his kicks off putting his finger in electrical outlets, but instead of a key, I have a nickname dangling from that Ben Franklin string, as I try to make Megahertz electrify and stick. Then I think how Megahertz sounds negative, and I shake it off. So, we’re left with MH2, and, damn, we need a nickname for Harris. Any hoo! Megahertz reminds me what I said in my Vaughn Grissom sleeper, Mega hit in Double-A, and was young, so he could hit major-league pitching. Not quite that simple, I realize that, but when a guy succeeds crazy young, you have to wonder why a team would hold them down at all. Mega’s what? A star, and his .367 wOBA was in the top 7% in the league, and he’s got easy 20-steal speed, as a 21-year-old. That’s very convincing. Hard for me to be too negative on anything a guy who can do that, but there’s a reason he’s with the Himmy Skosheeonit’s and not a Himmy Actuallyonit.
Mega takes no walks. This isn’t a dealbreaker, because slap the ball and run works with his speed, but that makes him especially prone to slumps and an unlucky BABIP. It wouldn’t shock me to see him have an unlucky season and come back as a sleeper next year. That’s not the most likely possibility, but that’s in the range of possibilities. His 41.7% on outside of zone swings is 4th worst (best?) in the league, if he qualified. The bottom three: Javier Baez, Castellanos, Amed Rosario. It’s not a dealbreaker as Amed shows. Fast guys can succeed with that proclivity for outside pitches, but listen to this: Amed is at 73.4% for contact on those pitches; Mega is 59.7%. Luis Robert is up there in O-Swing%, when adjusting to a 400 ABs sample size. He had 48.3% O-Swing, which is 2nd best (worst) in the majors, but made 62.6% contact. So, more swings, but more contact. We’re in the weeds here, so I’ll come out. The good news, Mega swings at a ton of balls in the zone too (67.9%, he swings at everything), and makes a lot of contact (86.1%). This is not to say I don’t like him, but those numbers are slump-prone. Megahertz is an electric player, just don’t want him to short out. (The nickname really needs work.) 2023 Projections: 93/20/77/.271/25 in 564 ABs
11. Cedric Mullins – *two fans staring out in the general direction where Camden Yards’ fences are supposed to be* “I see nothing. Is that Virginia?” “No, here, try these…” One fan hands the other a pair of binoculars. “Is that the left field fence? I thought it was a floodgate for the Chesapeake.” So, Mullins’s power is nothing to be mulling because the fences’ shift, and, Chesapeake’ing on shifts, Mullins might get a little boost without the shift. 34 steals last year, and maybe the limited pickoff moves might even let him sneak up to 40. Was pretty out on Mullins last year, but his 20/35/.260 is getting lost in people vying for upside. I love me some Schwarber, don’t mind if I do Adolis, but don’t forget about Mullins just because he won’t hit 30 homers ever again. He’s Himmy Skosheeonit absolutely. 2023 Projections: 96/20/62/.256/35 in 597 ABs
12. Randy Arozarena – Mullins and The Rice Bowl are a small sub-tier within this tier that is guys who I was pretty skeptical of prior to this year. One part of the 2023 fantasy baseball rankings that I’m really trying to do this year with the top guys is: If they’ve done it, be more apt to believe it. If they haven’t done it, be a little more skeptical. Doesn’t apply to everyone, but absolutely does apply to Mullins and The Rice Bowl.
Last year, Rice went 20/32/.263 and. Dot dot dot. What do you want to take away from that? I don’t mean, what’s your takeaways. And I’m not British doing a takeway of mashed peas. I mean, where are you slicing stats off of those numbers for him to be less good this year? Less steals? I guess it could happen, but why? Because of the caught stealings (12). Okay, but what about the limited pickoffs now? The Rice Bowl might steal only 20 bags this year, but there’s nothing you’re pointing to make that so. 20 homers isn’t difficult for him to reach again. His Launch Angle is fairly flat, but a 33% fly ball rate gets him to 20 homers again, and 18-24 homers is prolly his range. So, there might be more power here. The Rice Bowl won’t go 40/40 but there’s no reason to take him, a grain, with a grain of salt and lower him. 2023 Projections: 83/20/89/.260/30 in 579 ABs
13. Adolis Garcia – Wrote a sleeper post about him last year, and Adolis did everything I expected, so I’m taking myself out of the equation because I like him a lot, therefore, ergo, vis-a-vie, I might be biased. Henceforth (sounds like a made-up word), I will quote Steamer’s projections for him: 28/18/.234 in 152 games. That sounds close enough for argument’s sake. Those projections are worth every cent of this draft ranking. Now, are you ready for me in it? He’s hit .243 and .250 in his two years of MLB, and he lowered his strikeout rate last year from 31.2% to 27.9%. So, pretell, how ya gonna project him for .234. Forget it, don’t pretell me. He just stole 25 bags, and they’re taking away pickoff moves, so he’s gonna lose seven bags from last year? Feels aggressively negative. His career HR/FB% is 17.4% and his career fly ball rate is 40.2%, if he matches his career numbers, he’ll hit 32 homers. They shaved that by four homers, but, sure, it’s close, like I said. If he achieves his Steamer projections, he’s worth this draft pick, but I expect: 2023 Projections: 81/30/96/.248/24 in 591 ABs
14. Kyle Schwarber – He went 46/10 last year, and still wasn’t as valuable as Adolis Garcia last year because The Schwammer had a .218 average dragging him down. Funny (not funny), he was actually worse without the shift last year than with it, but it’s a small sample size thing. He was shifted on 90.5% of the time, so he only saw 63 plate appearances without a shift. I typo’d “shirt” instead of shift and that made me laugh. “Here comes Schwarber for his 63rd plate appearance where he’s showing us his nipples. Can’t believe they banned the shirt.” Any hoo! Schwarber is the last guy to try to bunt against the shift, and might be one of the top benefactors of no shift. As I’ve mentioned before, it’ll prolly only mean 5-10 more hits for guys across 600 plate appearances, so we’re talking about The Schwammer hitting .225 vs. .218. You’re not drafting him for his average, anyway. You want Kyle to drop The Schwammer, and hit lots of fly balls and homers. There’s maybe five guys I’d pencil in for 40 homers, and Schwammer is one. 2023 Projections: 81/41/97/.223/7 in 557 ABs
15. Luis Robert – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Varsho. I call this tier, “No buh-but.” The tier name refers to me trying to figure out how to move the guys in this tier up to the tier before, but I just went, “Buh-buh-buh-buh-but…Alas, there’s no buh-but.” The but has left the argument. These guys belong in this tier and not in the above.
As for Robert, spent a few minutes trying to make a cogent argument on why Luis Robert could’ve been in the above tier, and hence nearly a top 20 overall guy, and I couldn’t do it with a straight face. He has yet to play in more than 100 games in a season, after three years, and, honestly, I almost dropped him further in the rankings, but I was compelled by his eye-popping stats if this phantom season that never happens actually happens.
Last year in 98 games, Robert went 12/11, and that leaves me a little wanting. Are we really to believe if he stays healthy — that “if” is the size of Oprah’s wagon filled with animal fat — Luis Robert will finally actually hit for power? He’s yet to exceed 13 homers in any major league season. On a side but related note, I do think someone might want to break into the White Sox humidor and set that shizz to blow, because right now it’s on suck. Luis does hit for a good average, but, as mentioned in the MH2 blurb, he swings a lot, and is subject to a bad luck BABIP break. It sounds like I’m super down on LouBob in a non-sexual way, but consider that, besides his average, I am giving him a new career-high in every category, and more than 70 at-bats than his previous high. 2023 Projections: 71/16/68/.279/15 in 454 ABs
16. Corbin Carroll – Already gave you my Corbin Carroll fantasy. It was written while zoning out in the DMV. Also, Corbin Carroll is in the video at the top of the page. 2023 Projections: 81/21/71/.271/27 in 527 ABs
17. Teoscar Hernandez – Here’s what I said this offseason, “…and the Teoscar goes to…La La Land! Wait, that’s wrong. Damn it, Faye Dunaway, give me that envelope! …and the Teoscar Hernandez goes to Seattle for Erik Swanson and minor-league LHP Adam Macko! That’s worse than La La Land. Macko better grow ten inches and become the next Randy Johnson for this trade to make sense. Okay, first my thoughts on middle relievers, such as Erik Swanson, then back to the trade. They are failed starters! Take Yusei Kikuchi and make him a middle reliever if you want a middle reliever. What are you doing?! Jays ain’t no Rays, but the M’s might be. Rays know that anyone can be a great reliever. Yanks seemed to figure it out when they took a guy who flamed out in Pittsburgh and made him great–Oh, wait, that could be Gerrit Coletoo. Or any pitcher leaving Pittsburgh. Okay, sorry, that Pittsburgh hate is off-topic. Focus! This trade just has me so discombobulated. Why would you trade Teoscar Hernandez for a middle reliever and a lottery ticket arm? The only reasons I can imagine are the Jays aren’t done and will acquire another bat. Or the Jays know something on Teoscar that we don’t know. Something like he wanted out; clashing with some of the other players; something, and I don’t know what. So, Teoscar goes to a much worse park. Seattle is the worst park, by the by. Don’t trust me, ask Jesse Winker. Teoscar is no Winker though, and should be able to hit anywhere. What’s funny, and should be taken with a grain of salt, Teoscar’s expected homers in Toronto last year was 28 (he actually hit 25), and in Seattle it was 31. He’s regularly a top five-percenter in MaxEv, and regular Exit Velocity. Red marks after red marks indicating fire on all the best Statcast numbers. Barrel% upper 94-percenter; HardHit% is 98%; speed is even in the 84 percentile. I ranked Teoscar crazy high last year, and he disappointed, but it’s hard to not fall in love again. He really is that good, and Dipoto is robbing Canada like Mrs. Butterworth’s tapping maples.” And that’s me quoting me! 2023 Projections: 76/29/83/.264/7 in 517 ABs
18. Starling Marte – Promised myself I wouldn’t get caught up in being out a year early on an aging speedster. I promised this year would be different. This year I’d let the players speak to me through this seashell I bought from this girl named Sally down by the seashore who was a certified witch, and I saw her degree from University of Phoenix. This year I’d say to myself, age is just a number, like I was Chi Ali, who did a 12-year bid in Sing Sing. Is that irony? Maybe if he would’ve did time in Rap-Rap. Any hoo! I didn’t learn no lesson! I’m out on Marte, whether it’s a year early or not. He went 16/18 last year and lost thirty points on his BABIP too. His ground ball rate is terrible, and his Hard Contact is worse. He’s a 12/15/.260 guy just waiting to happen with great counting stats, maybe, but I don’t want any part of him. Excuse me, no Parte. 2023 Projections: 91/15/64/.273/20 in 531 ABs
19. Daulton Varsho – Already went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2023 fantasy baseball.
20. Eloy Jimenez – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 40 outfielders for 2023 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “The lovely resort town, Should Be.” Should Be is one of the nicest resort areas in the underwater city of Atlantis. Just off the coast and 6,000 feet down. Should Be’s mayor, Mr. Make Believe, fought a tough three-way mayoral election between the Loch Ness Monster and a healthy Eloy. During the debates, Eloy countered negative thoughts about him by running in place for three minutes and not pulling a hamstring or quad. Unfortunately, even in Should Be’s town, Make Believe won out by one vote when Eloy couldn’t get to the polls to vote for himself after he strained his oblique. Shame, Eloy could’ve led Should Be against the staunch Make-Believers in his hardline stance against–Crap, he ruptured his Achilles taking a hard stance against Make Believe. Welp, prolly better that Eloy remains a coulda among Should Be greats. So, Eloy Should Be a 35-homer, .270 hitter. Will he? That’s a different city altogether. 2023 Projections: 65/28/71/.291 in 455 ABs
CONTINUE ON TO THE TOP 40 OUTFIELDERS FOR 2023 FANTASY BASEBALL
