This is the top 100 starters for 2024 fantasy baseball? This is the top 100 starters for 2024 fantasy baseball! Which means. Dot dot dot. This is the end of the 2024 fantasy baseball rankings. I can reclaim my fingers! Wait, I still have to do the top 100 overall and top 500 overall. Hmm, that was short-lived.
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Here’s Steamer’s 2024 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2024 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers. As always, my projections are included, and where I see tiers starting and stopping. If you want an explanation of tiers, go back to the top 10 for 2024 fantasy baseball and start this shizz all over again. Anyway, here’s the top 100 starters for 2024 fantasy baseball:
NOTE I: All my rankings are currently available on Patreon for the price of a Starbucks coffee, if you get one of those extra grande frappuccino jobbers. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out over the next month, and get them all now.
NOTE II: Free agents are listed as just that and not yet projected. Once a guy signs, I will write out their blurb and add in projections, or remove them, if they sign in an unfavorable place. They are ranked currently where I think they might be if they sign on for a full-time job.
NOTE III: Bdon and I discuss the starters:
CLICK BACK TO THE TOP 80 STARTERS
81. Gavin Stone – This tier started in the top 80 starters for 2024 fantasy baseball. This tier ends at Varland. I called this tier, “I’m using the milkrowave.” As for Stone, as I said in my blurb in the top 20 2nd basemen for Miguel Vargas, a conspiracy theory I totally believe is the Dodgers slide some payola under a table to a scout, the scout gives a prospect a high grade, and the team trades the prospect for a star. In related future news, Gavin Stone to the Padres for the soon-to-be free agent Ha-Seong Kim. In reality, someone like the unranked Wade Miley will be more valuable than Gavin, but what fun is that? UPDATE: Favorite to win the Dodgers’ last rotation spot. 2024 Projections: 9-6/4.25/1.37/125 in 121 IP
82. Logan Allen – Maybe because his fastball is more like a slowball, but no one seems interested in Allen, even though he was a well-regarded prospect not that long ago, and was known for his command, which didn’t show up last year, but it was his rookie year, so who cares? Everyone needs to hit the ground running? Clearly, I’m not all-in on Allen (wordplay points!), but I like him a ton more than most, according to his ADP. Maybe people are worried because he was shutdown with shoulder inflammation, but that was just a fake injury to limit his IP. 2024 Projections: 9-10/4.09/1.32/148 in 144 IP
83. Josiah Gray – Juggled Gray around a bit. “Juggling Grey around” was also why I took 45-minute showers in high school. It’s not Juggalo Grey either, that was me with face paint. I juggled Josiah around between tiers because I wasn’t sure if I could really draft him based solely on “He should be better and this is his third full year, a year when pitchers tend to put it together.” Decided, yes, I could, because this is so late anyway, there’s a lot worse reasons. Gray’s command is hella wonky though, so be careful. 2024 Projections: 9-12/3.87/1.37/165 in 171 IP
84. DL Hall – Traded to the Brewers. Hall’s either going to replace Devin Williams when he’s randomly traded, because the Brewers are in constant rebuild mode, or Hall is going to be a sexy eh-eff starter, because the Brewers do nothing but churn out lights-out starters. Hall’s shown terrible command as a starter, and impeccable control as a reliever, so what do we see? Hate to cop out, but somewhere in the middle? Prolly. His stuff is good enough to draft as a flyer, and the Brewers didn’t just trade Burnes for him to make him their rando 7th inning guy. 2024 Projections: 6-8/3.88/1.35/123 in 104 IP
85. Louie Varland – Not sure if the Twins employ a fortune teller on their coaching staff, but it seems they built their young pitchers with the new rules in mind. If they do employ a fortune teller, they should ask them how many wins to accumulate in the regular season to avoid the Yanks in the postseason. In all seriousness, the Twins have been building (and drafting) their arms to be high command guys for over a decade now, which always makes for a safer starter than a “Reds starter-type arm.” Varland has under career 100 IP, and an ERA projected by Steamer of 4.12. That doesn’t sound low, but it is if you know how conservative Steamer is with young starters, and ERA. He’d have the 13th best K/BB in the majors if he qualified. There’s a lot to like here. The biggest problem is does he stay in the rotation? 2024 Projections: 7-9/3.97/1.20/118 in 115 IP
86. Jon Gray – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Montas. I call this tier, “Six-sevenths of almost interesting.” You see 8.3 K/9, and you’re like, “Ya know what, that’s almost interesting!” Then you see a guy’s K-BB% and you’re like, “That’s gonna lose about 1/7th of an almost interesting.” That’s this tier, six-sevenths of an almost interesting starter. In deep (NL-Only or AL-Only, for unstints) leagues, this tier is a strong option because in those leagues waivers are scant/skank, and you need IP. If I do my top 500 correctly, this tier and every starter after won’t appear draftable for 12-team leagues or shallower. This is your basic, old/boring starter tier. One more word about this tier, I tried to line up the number of starters that were in this tier last year and the previous tier, and I struggled to find guys for the previous tier (the upside tier), and had no problem filling this tier of old/boring guys. Take what you want from that.
As for Gray, who knows what he’ll do, but his projections? Oh, those seem incredibly obvious. He had a 3.96 ERA his 1st year in Texas, and 4.12 ERA last year. He’s a 9 K/9, 3 BB/9 pitcher. All that equals? 4.00 ERA and 155 Ks with a plus or minus of .0000005. Why does Steamer have him down for a 4.33 ERA? Yeah, I have no idea. What do they know that we don’t? Very suspicious. 2024 Projections: 10-10/4.02/1.27/154 in 160 IP
87. Tyler Wells – With Bradish having a fork stuck in him, and John Means becoming a casualty of elbow soreness, so now when you see him in drafts, you say Nah’Means, I’ve added in Wells. If Wells were guaranteed a rotation spot for the whole year, I’d still put him in a tier like you’d find a safe number five. Wells has mythical upside, according to some, but I see a guy who is rather pedestrian (8.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9) when push comes to him shoving. 2024 Projections: 8-8/4.07/1.21/118 in 124 IP
88. Garrett Whitlock – With Giolito going down, you’d think Garrett Whitlock were just a bridge to a high-priced starter acquisition, but no. GW is not a bridge to anywhere; check New York for that. Since the Red Sox are a small market team now and have become the AL East’s new Orioles, Whitlock could throw out 120 innings and his arm from overuse. Might not be the worst innings either, since he’s been good in the past, but it was always as a reliever. 2024 Projections: 7-9/4.11/1.26/124 in 121 IP
89. Clayton Kershaw – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Had shoulder surgery. He repaired the gleno-humeral ligaments. One of the worst after-dinner mints. He will miss the 1st half of the 2024 season, and then be “expected back in July, then August, then maybe for the postseason.” Here’s a fun thought experiment: Who will have more innings in 2024, deGrom or Kershaw? Gotta be Kershaw, right? Are you sure?” And that’s me quoting me! One word about his ranking and projections, if he matches his projections, then he’s not worth this draft pick, but factor in an IL slot costs you nothing (if you have one to spare), and how good he is when he is actually pitching, I ranked him here. UPDATE: He re-signed with the Dodgers. Dur, of course he did. 2024 Projections: 3-1/2.34/1.03/45 in 39 IP
90. Taj Bradley – This tier has a bunch of “They could’ve been Grayson Rodriguez if they figured their shizz out in the 2nd half last year rather than continue to look awful like Grayson in the 1st half.” There’s no reason why Taj can’t put it together and be better than Grayson this year. Am I confident in that prediction? No, but the price to acquire him is also about half, if not a quarter. UPDATE: Out with a strained pectoral. 2024 Projections: 6-5/4.18/1.33/107 in 97 IP
91. Kyle Bradish – Last year you never resorted to pasting a merkin on your head to cover your receding hairline, so it’s clearly a new year, but it’s worth pointing out that Bradish was the 10th best starter last year, according to the Player Rater. He was right in front of Kirby. Kirby made the leap to the top 20 starters, but why didn’t Bradish? His command isn’t quite as elite, and I don’t see Bradish’s upside quite as dramatically. Bradish might also be the most underrated starter that no one thinks is underrated, which makes him even more underrated. I think. UPDATE: Kyle Bradish has a tear in his UCL, and is getting a PRP shot, while planning to pitch through it. Baseball reminds me of the adage: We plan, God laughs. The Orioles lost their number two starter. In day two of Spring Training. I liked Bradish; not as much as ADP, but I liked him. Now, he falls completely off my radar. Compounding this into something that simultaneously sucks and blows, he’s diddling around with PRP shots and pitching through a UCL tear, when he should be going for Tommy John and hoping to be back by the All-Star Break of 2025. Now, he delays the inevitable. He’s now in a tier in the top 80 starters where I wouldn’t draft him. He was adjusted in the top 500, and removed from the pitchers pairing tool. 2024 Projections: 9-5/3.89/1.12/143 in 139 IP
92. Gavin Williams – Fun fact! Potsie on Happy Days? His real name was Gavin Williams. Potsie on Happy Days is the beginning of a very current cultural reference. Next thing ya know, I’m gonna reference the Bobbsey Twins. So, Gavin’s command blows like Andre 3000 into a flute on his new album. (Is that reference current enough for you, hipsters? By the by, Andre 3000’s album feels like a gag. He doesn’t rap once? Is this a joke? It’s a very unfunny one.) Gavin was better in the minors for command, and I hate betting against the Cleveland Starting Pitcher Factory that is now housed in an old Old Spaghetti Factory, but I just can’t get in on Gavin after his previous year. One more side note (amongst a series of side notes), how smart is The Old Spaghetti Factory? They named themselves old, so you can’t ever say, “That crappy, old Old Spaghetti Factory,” or you sound like a big dummy. People hear you and think, “It’s just one ‘old,’ you dope.” UPDATE: Will start year on IL and has elbow issues. Bye-bye. 2024 Projections: 5-7/3.88/1.28/129 in 126 IP
93. Luis Severino – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed by the Mets. “Look at the Mets making a splash,” says the guy who forgot how awful Severino was last year. “Man, the Mets are just smart!” That’s the same guy. Severino’s fastball wasn’t locating at all last year, but the velocity was fine. So, fixing location and not needing to regain velocity isn’t a terrible place to look for a bounce back, but, like I say a lot, why do I want this headache? He could bounce back, but it won’t be me trying to see if it happens.” And that’s me quoting me! 2024 Projections: 10-9/4.33/1.39/140 in 156 IP
94. Yu Darvish – So, debated Darvish for the tier in the top 80 starters with Maeda and Kikuchi raising a rising sun flag, but decided I didn’t want Darvish at all. Well, I take that back. If he falls this far? Fine, but that’s like saying I don’t want to cheat on my wife, but if Margot Robbie falls to me–You know what I’m saying. Darvish has a stress reaction in his elbow, was shut down at the end of last year, and has a bone spur in his elbow, and how big is his elbow to have all these ailments? 2024 Projections: 7-7/4.28/1.28/124 in 121 IP
95. Griffin Canning – When searching for him, I stumbled on Oil Can Boyd, because Canning and Can, which took me on a 20-minute detour through how many drugs Oil Can used to do prior to games. He’s on the record saying he’d sit in the bathroom smoking crack rock, which then led me to find Rock Raines and somehow that took me to his HOF induction speech. Any hoo! I’m back now, and looking at Canning, and I think he might be suffering a bit in the rankings (and drafts) because “Now that Ohtani left, nothing good is left in Anaheim” narrative, which, honestly: Fair. I get it, but Canning throwing a top 40 starter year with 150 IP wouldn’t shock me. He hasn’t even approached that though, so he’s here. 2024 Projections: 8-11/4.13/1.22/157 in 148 IP
96. Chris Paddack – Noticed Paddack recently started going by Chris Paddack Jr. We call that The Reverse Nelson Cruz. Also noticed: He has a 9.1 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and 3.85 xFIP in 335 1/3 career innings. Sure, there’s some major problems with him. He kinda reminds me of a young Eovaldi, until he started clicking. The fastball velocity wasn’t quite at Eovaldi’s level previously, but he did hit 95.6 MPH last year. Granted, in an insanely small sample size. I trust the Twins implicitly. If this sounds way more encouraging than most of the blurbs in this tier, Paddack also has 127 2/3 IP since 2021. 2024 Projections: 7-6/4.05/1.24/104 in 117 IP
97. Jameson Taillon – Have the Cubs signed or traded for more starters yet, because as I type this up Taillon is the Cubs’ number two. That could be both definitions of a “number two.” 2024 Projections: 9-11/4.18/1.26/156 in 174 IP
98. Jordan Hicks – Signed with the Giants. They said they’re going to let him be a starter. You, “Hicks’s stats are so good, if you prorate that out to 150 IP, he’s an ace!” That’s true! Reminds me of the time [a team name] said [insert player name] would be stretched out to be a starter and [insert same player name] got to about March 15th as a starter, then went back to relieving. Like Hicks value more as a setup man for Doval, but I’ll be their huckleberry for now and pretend he’s a starter. That leaves us with how many innings he is even capable of throwing. FanGraphs has him at 115 IP; Rudy has him at 81 2/3 IP; I have him at: 2024 Projections: 7-4/3.44/1.33/106 in 91 IP
99. Ranger Suarez – “[yawns] …but he has an 8 K/9 and [yawns again] …sorry, excuse me.” That’s this tier. 2024 Projections: 8-6/4.07/1.34/126 in 141 IP
100. Steven Matz – Going off the Suarez blurb, we’re securely in the 8-ish K/9, 2.5 to 3.2 BB/9 area of guys who could have a sub-4 ERA, but they likely won’t. Sorry, I’m slightly gaslighting. Matz did have a 3.86 ERA last year, but you really expect that again? By the by, Steamer does, projecting him for 3.92, which is slightly wild. It’s splitting hairs, but Matz gets projected for a sub-4 ERA, but a guy like Chris Bassitt doesn’t? Max Scherzer doesn’t? Verlander doesn’t? Joe Ryan doesn’t? Oh…[climbs to the top of highest stack of pancakes]…kay. 2024 Projections: 8-8/4.06/1.31/126 in 137 IP
101. Jose Quintana – Feels a little unfair to have him ranked in this tier. His stats read easily as a number five vs. this, which is, like, the 6th or 7th starter in deep leagues. His last two years: 241 1/3 IP and a 3.13 ERA. His strikeouts are meh, and maybe his health isn’t 100% after last year, but seems like a bargain here, and he’s being drafted even later than this. 2024 Projections: 8-7/3.77/1.28/128 in 166 IP
102. Sean Manaea – Signed with the Mets. He becomes the 2nd Samoan Mets player of all-time. The first was Bartolo Colon–Oh, wait, he just ate Samoa cookies. That’s my bad. Manaea feels like Quintana, Part Deux. Call him Josecanyouseeifyou Squintana. 2024 Projections: 7-9/3.97/1.28/142 in 137 IP
103. Miles Mikolas – If you root for a team with more than one guy in this tier, I’m so, so sorry, Cards fans. 2024 Projections: 11-10/4.21/1.24/131 in 191 IP
104. Lance Lynn – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Cardinals. Lance Lynn returns to where it all began. Where he first learned to curse at the sky and grab his crotch. An inspiration to truck drivers, diner cooks and professional wrestlers everywhere.” And that’s me quoting me! 2024 Projections: 11-9/4.42/1.34/177 in 174 IP
105. Bryce Elder – He’s not exactly an old/boring starter, though his last name and stats might lead you to believe that. A just-under 7 K/9 and a 3 BB/9 starter? Yeah, Elder is old and boring. 2024 Projections: 9-10/4.04/1.31/131 in 171 IP
106. Frankie Montas – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Reds. Heard this news and briefly thought the Reds signed Frankie Muniz. Why the Reds signed him? To the tune of the Malcolm In The Middle theme, “You’re lost on me now…” Maybe I’m being too harsh, but — singing again, “Life is unfair…” — I’d try Nick Martinez over Montas and definitely not Montas over Lodolo, but I guess it’s a lottery ticket. With his shoulder issues, he’s nothing more.” And that’s me quoting me! 2024 Projections: 7-8/4.14/1.28/112 in 121 IP
107. Paul Skenes – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Means. I call this tier, “Saying romance into a glass bottle, then tossing it into the sea.” Putting a message in a bottle is rarely answered, it’s even more rare when someone just speaks words into a bottle and casts it off into the ocean. That’s this tier. The very rare chance for success. For what it’s Cronenworth, this tier last year had Brayan Bello, Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett, and MacKenzie Gore. This is clearly the deep league, upside tier.
As for Skenes, I would’ve wrote a rookie post for him if I thought he was going to have significant innings this year. That doesn’t mean in some leagues you shouldn’t take a crazy late flier in case the Pirates shock the world. Here’s what Itch said, “Skenes gave up catching and quickly became the best pitcher in college baseball. At 6’6” 235 lbs, he wasn’t really built for crouching all day. What he was built to do is shove 100 mile per hour fastballs through the strike zone and bury unhittable sliders. The club jumped him up to Double-A for a couple of short outings, so it stands to reason that’s where he’ll open 2024, but this could be a situation where his stuff is just too dominant for the minor leagues. I could dominant that little puny Grey.” C’mon, man! 2024 Projections: 1-2/2.67/1.03/21 in 14 IP
108. Ricky Tiedemann – Already gave you a Ricky Tiedemann fantasy. It was written while saying, “Reach one, teach one.” 2024 Projections: 3-4/4.36/1.34/64 in 49 IP
109. Cade Horton – Horton hears a who? Itch’s tell who, “Horton heard his name called early on draft night when the Cubs took him seventh overall. At 6’1” 212 lbs, Horton was a two-way player but settled into a weekend starter role as a Sophomore after recovering from Tommy John surgery. He got better and better the further he got from the surgery, leading Oklahoma to the College World Series Final on the strength of a mid-90’s fastball he can locate up in the zone and a double-plus slider he loves to throw. It’s not necessarily a negative, as throwing it a lot has led to impressive command of the pitch. He’s got a curveball in a third velocity band as well but hasn’t used it as much. Now let’s band together and take out Grey!” What? No! Ben Brown looks ahead of Cade Horton on the Cubs’ depth chart for promotion, but everyone seems to agree that Horton hears a who is better. Yes, that’s who, then a Ben Frown. I’ve stopped trying to predict rookie pitchers. I mean, not stopped stopped. I’m going to do exactly that here, but just know there’s a long history of “Shruggy the Emoji” when I say Cade Horton should be better than Ben Brown. He absolutely should, but you can’t spell shoulder without should, and who knows? Horton that’s who! Am I talking in riddles? Perhaps. Essentially, I’m saying Cade Horton has a way higher ceiling, and Ben Brown looks like a middle reliever, but I’ve seen middle relievers become great starters and great starters become relievers, so who knows? Horon that’s who! Why do you keep asking? 2024 Projections: 5-3/3.71/1.27/82 in 71 IP
110. Mason Black – Frontrunner for the Giants’ 5th rotation spot. Here’s what Itch said, “It’s a two-pitch, three-quarters look from the 6’3” Black, but if his command is on point, he gets an extra pitch or two out of the fastball/slider combo because he can work both inside and out, up and down. Stealing the back-door slider strike from lefties, especially, gives him a chance against them because he can also back-foot the pitch for punch-outs in two-strike counts. Though he struggled a bit in 60.2 innings at Triple-A, Black was the club’s minor league player of the year in 2023 and should get a look pretty early in 2024. Now, if you excuse me, I’m plotting to poison Grey’s boba.” What the heck? 2024 Projections: 5-7/4.22/1.36/84 in 76 IP
111. Reynaldo Lopez – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed by the Braves. Word is they’ll stretch him out as a starter in the spring, then they’ll be like, “Hold up! He was great as a reliever for the last two years, what are we doing here?” Then he’ll be a reliever in the season.” And that’s me quoting me! My guess is I’ll be moving Lopez out of this tier once it’s revealed in the spring that he’ll be a reliever again. We need a relief reveal. Alliteration in lieu of wit! 2024 Projections: 6-8/3.09/1.19/112 in 96 IP
112. Sawyer Gipson-Long – His results, read: Ks, have been promising. His slider and change are nasty, and he has a super low ceiling, according to some prospect guys, and I can only assume that’s because his fastball is meh. Looks like it sits there and lefty-heavy lineups might kill him. He leads with his slider, which he controls well, so I’m not as worried that the fastball doesn’t do much. tl;dr about SGL, he could be okay. 2024 Projections: 5-6/3.74/1.24/86 in 72 IP
113. Chase Silseth – We all know Silseth isn’t someone’s last name but is something Missy Elliott rhymes. [intern whispers] Okay, I’m hearing that it is someone’s last name. You know nothing good will ever come of the Angels in Commiefornia, and there’s concern his fastball is so flat he’s headed for the pen, but it’s late and Silseth, smoke meth, Kiss’s Beth, a life to death, as Missy Elliott would lisp-sing, and he has some upside with his splitter. 2024 Projections: 4-7/4.19/1.41/137 in 128 IP
114. AJ Smith-Shawver – Ya know what you can infer from ASS and Lopez being in this tier? I have no idea who will be the Braves’ 5th starter, but whoever it is, they will prolly be a top five finisher for the Cy Young. I’m only half-kidding. 2024 Projections: 4-5/4.33/1.37/93 in 85 IP
115. JP Sears – In 172 1/3 IP last year, he had a decent 8.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and won five games from 32 starts. Guffaw. Sears is a perfect fit for the A’s, since they are super low budget and soon-to-be defunct. 2024 Projections: 6-12/4.11/1.24/156 in 168 IP
116. Bowden Francis – This monkey gone to heaven! This monkey gone to heaven! This monkey–Sorry, saw Bowden Francis aka Frank Black, and I naturally rolled into the Pixies. So, will Bowden Francis Doolittle or will he be a Champagne Surfer Rosa–Wait, I’m confusing my bands, but will Francis rock or get rocked? Looks like he has great command and the lead for the Jays’ 5th starter job. He has appeared to be a Quad-A player until this spring, so I’d tread lightly, but worth the flyer crazy late. You know the Deal, Kim. 2024 Projections: 6-5/4.23/1.34/77 in 74 IP
117. Zack Littell – Don’t have high hopes for Littell, not sure why he’s in this tier of upside–Oh, I see. He’s a Rays pitcher. 2024 Projections: 7-6/3.89/1.14/97 in 112 IP
118. John Means – See him being drafted way after this and I’m not sure why. I’m guessing people are worried because he’s returning from Tommy John surgery. If he were the first pitcher ever to try out this new procedure, and everyone was holding their breath thinking, “If it works, I’m going to have it and call it Johnny Means Surgery,” then I can understand the hesitation, but we’re like 50 years into Tommy John. He’s not exactly an ace when healthy, but he’s not much worse than a five or six, and, if he could safely throw 160 IP, he’d be a number three. UPDATE: Has elbow soreness, and is a month behind. Yeah, yeah, and in June it’ll be “any day now.” I moved Means way down in the rankings, and added Tyler Wells. 2024 Projections: 7-7/4.23/1.24/82 in 93 IP
116. Alek Manoah –
As for Manoah, when someone says Janky McJanky Jankerstein, there’s no one I think of before Manoah. He’s so janky that Janky McJanky Jankerstein used to be named Pete Smith, then Pete saw Alek Manoah pitch and he said, “Ya know what? I’m no longer going to be called Pete Smith, I’m going to be called Janky McJanky Jankerstein because I pitch as well as Alek Manoah.” Janky McJanky Jankerstein, aka formerly Pete Smith, never threw a baseball before and gave up 17 runs in an office softball game. UPDATE: Manoah looks cooked, which is especially bad for him, because then he might eat himself. 2024 Projections: 7-11/4.37/1.36/134 in 148 IP
119. Andrew Heaney – This is a new tier. This tier goes until Gibson. I call this tier, “Janky McJanky Jankerstein.” These guys are not safe, a bunch are injured; they’re not 6/7ths of almost interesting, and, finally, they’re not worth the flyer. They’re just a bunch of Janky McJanky Jankersteins.
As bad as Heaney is, and anyone in this tier of Janky McJanky Jankersteins, I feel terrible about putting anyone in the same tier as Manoah. He really should be his own tier and these other guys should be Janky McJanky Jankerstein juniors. And that’s me almost defending Heaney who is such a Janky McJanky Jankerstein in his own right! Manoah should be his own tier called, Janky McJanky Jankerstein; Heaney should be in a tier called, Janky McJanky Jankerstein Jr. then everyone else! Alas… 2024 Projections: 8-9/4.28/1.36/138 in 136 IP
120. Graham Ashcraft – “Ashcraft can be a solid number three.” [Ashcraft pitching like one of the worst pitchers ever] “Yeah, maybe, at some point.” 2024 Projections: 8-13/4.31/1.33/141 in 174 IP
121. James Paxton – Signed with the Dodgers. Well, they can’t all be winners, pronounced like weiner and the best weiners are Dodger Dogs. Whoa. This signing kinda jams up the Dodgers’ 5th rotation spot for more interesting names (Sheehan, Stone), but, reality of the shituation, they’re all one big combo meal of 5th starters, and will share innings. 2024 Projections: 7-6/4.27/1.28/133 in 124 IP
122. Matt Manning – The guys in this tier are so, so, so, so bad, but I guess there’s the smallest modicum that’s ever modicum’d of potential. Last year Manning had a 3.58 ERA, after all. (And the worst peripherals you’ve ever seen. Like hilariously bad.) 2024 Projections: 7-10/4.22/1.19/96 in 132 IP
123. Trevor Rogers – Holding myself accountable more than any of youse could ever, and looking at the Janky McJanky Jankersteins last year, and this tier had more hits than tiers way higher! You could’ve done well only drafting from this tier. Maybe I should call this tier Saberhagenmetrics, as in they were bad last year but will bounce back with a great year. Last year this tier had EdRod, Ranger Suarez, Berrios, Bradish, Clarke Schmidt, Civale, and Mitch Keller. Forget everything negative I said about Manoah and Heaney. Draft these guys! (I’m kidding, partially.) 2024 Projections: 6-9/4.23/1.27/87 in 86 IP
124. Jacob deGrom – John Jacob deGrom Janky McJanky Jankerstein Pete Smith is his name and it’s my name too! DeGrom isn’t really a Janky McJanky Jankerstein, but he also isn’t throwing any innings this year, so it’s kinda like you’re just drafting a participation trophy for not participating. If you’re wondering why I put Kershaw much higher than deGrom, it’s because I think Kershaw can actually return and I have less faith in deGrom. 2024 Projections: 1-1/2.14/0.97/44 in 28 IP
125. Gerrit Cole – He has some concerns below the surface. His strikeouts were way down (11.5 to 9.6 K/9), and his xFIP was ridiculously high (2.77 to 3.60). Was due to his home runs being oddly suppressed. He’s a lot more of a 3.50 ERA pitcher with declining Ks. If I were the type to draft top pitchers, do I think Cole will find a way to still be very valuable? Yeah, that’s why I left him ranked number two overall for starters, but if he falls off and becomes a 3.75+ ERA pitcher, it also wouldn’t shock me. Do yourself a favor and just avoid him. UPDATE: Yanks said he’s out 10-12 weeks. So, I’m here to give you the bad news. Call me Bad News Barry. If he needs Tommy John surgery, he’s missing 2024 and 2025, whether he has the surgery today or in July. It doesn’t hurt them to wait until July. If rest and rehab works for Cole, and he can come back and give the Yanks 100 IP this year, it would be a miracle. I moved him in my rankings, but he’s only a last round flyer in a 12-teamer, if you want to sit on a miracle in your IL slot. 2024 Projections: 7-4/3.63/1.12/107 in 111 IP
126. Jack Flaherty – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Tigers. “Flaherty will get you everywhere!” That’s Flaherty talking in third person to the baseball prior to throwing it. When one says Flaherty can’t hit the broadside of the barn, it’s rude and obnoxious, unless that barn is listed on Redfin as cozy, which means small in realtor-speak, then it’s entirely possible Flaherty would miss it. He is a fixer-upper.” And that’s me quoting me! 2024 Projections: 7-10/4.41/1.44/156 in 152 IP
127. Taijuan Walker – Perfect inclusion in the Janky tier that we’ve established is also the Saberhagenmetrics tier, because Saberhagenmetricians will be quick to point out Walker is great every other year, and we’re going into an every other. 2024 Projections: 11-8/4.08/1.29/131 in 156 IP
128. Kyle Gibson – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Cards. That St. Louis ball club is putting together a pitching staff that can best be described as ‘Still in the league,’ and ‘gamers.'” And that’s me quoting me! 2024 Projections: 9-11/4.39/1.31/149 in 184 IP
129. Patrick Sandoval – This is a new tier. This is also the last tier of the 2024 fantasy baseball rankings, so here’s hoping the blood eventually comes back to my arthritic fingers. I call this tier, “Using my nose to type, because my fingers are so sore from writing all the tankings. It’s rankings, not tankings, you stupid nose!”
As for Sandoval, everything went sideways last year for him. Call Sandoval the Latch Key Kid, because his command abandoned him. Can he get it back? Sure if his mother abandons her career or dad gets fired. wait, are we still talking about Sandoval? 2024 Projections: 8-11/4.06/1.38/157 in 164 IP
130. Alex Cobb – Had hip surgery and will likely be out until May. Sit on that Cobb for as long as you can, until it hurts too much. 2024 Projections: 7-9/3.75/1.30/103 in 111 IP
131. Aaron Ashby – He missed all of 2023 with shoulder issues. Brewers’ GM says Ashby will return as a starting pitcher, and I said Margot Robbie wants to date me, but I’m happily married. Sorry, Robbie! 2024 Projections: 2-2/3.56/1.31/62 in 54 IP
132. Javier Assad – This tier of upside gambles, who I have no hope for, is also filled with “Guys who are bumped from the rotation as soon as their team trades or signs someone.” Assad is the poster child for, “That guy is very interesting–Oh, forget it, he’s out of the rotation.” 2024 Projections: 6-7/3.76/1.29/111 in 131 IP
133. Emmet Sheehan – As I’ve mentioned before, I make notes to myself before writing these blurbs. My note here was MAKE SURE DODGERS DON’T SIGN ANYONE ELSE. Caps for emphasis, because Past Me knows Future Me doesn’t remember shizz without me screaming. Well, UPDATE: Dodgers signed James Paxton so I moved down Sheehan, and forearm inflammation. 2024 Projections: 2-3/4.21/1.29/69 in 57 IP
133. Michael Kopech – Wanted to exclude Kopech and leave him in the “Omitted but considered” pile, but figured there were worse flyers this late. Let’s be clear, I think Kopech was ruined in 2021, and needs to go back to middle relief now. UPDATE: Will be a reliever, which the smartest move the White Sox have done in 10+ years. He’s in the top 500 now as a reliever. 2024 Projections: 6-14/4.46/1.39/146 in 141 IP
134. David Peterson – Had hip surgery and will miss through May, likely. At this point, it feels like he needs a fresh start somewhere else. Or more than one pitch working at a time. 2024 Projections: 5-4/4.19/1.36/101 in 91 IP
135. Tanner Houck – You have reached the end of the starter rankings. Congrats. After you draft, why do you look at your fantasy team’s pitching staff as being a mess? I don’t know, but does everyone feel that way? Houck yeah! 2024 Projections: 7-6/4.04/1.34/111 in 115 IP
Omitted but considered: Alek Manoah, Mike Clevinger, Trevor Bauer, Joe Ross, Michael Lorenzen, Brady Singer, Kyle Hendricks, Yariel Rodriguez, Naoyuki Uwasawa, Jackson Jobe, J.P. France, Max Meyer, Jose Urquidy, Julio Urias, Tylor Megill, Wade Miley, Casey Mize, Hayden Wesneski, Jeffrey Springs, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Robbie Ray, Drew Thorpe, Keaton Winn, Lance McCullers Jr., Zack Thompson, Dustin May, Erick Fedde, Drew Rasmussen, Luis Medina, Domingo German, Mike Soroka, Roansy Contreras, Jack Leiter, Ryan Yarbrough, Brock Stewart, Drew Smyly, Cole Irvin, Touki Toussaint, Daniel Lynch, Angel Zerpa, Tyler Anderson, Clayton Beeter, Paul Blackburn, Joe Boyle, Osvaldo Bido, Ryne Nelson, Jordan Wicks, the entire Rockies rotation, Adrian Houser, Colin Rea, Bailey Falter, Luis Ortiz, Marco Gonzales, Randy Vasquez, Matt Waldron, Ross Stripling, Anthony DeSclafani, Jake Irvin, let’s be real I didn’t even consider Patrick Corbin, Trevor Williams
