Most of the 2024 fantasy rookie outlook posts will be hitters. That’s not by accident. Hitters are easier to predict, especially rookies. Also, I like guys who have tasted the majors. If a player has seen time in the majors, then they’re more likely to be guaranteed a spot on the major league team next year. Unfortch, this doesn’t work for pitchers for one obvious reason. If hitters are looking good in Triple-A, then they can be called up for that delicious cup of coffee in the majors, if it’s not too latte. Pitchers? If they’re looking good in Triple-A, then more than likely they’ve thrown enough innings and should be shut down vs. being called up. So, you’ll see guys like Gavin Williams, Grayson Rodriguez, Tanner Bibee and so on get into the rotation in the majors in a, uh, major way without having any time spent in the majors the year before. That’s in general for rookie pitchers, not necessarily about Ricky Tiedemann, but he could easily break camp with the Jays in April without seeing any time in the majors last year. He could’ve made the majors last year if it wasn’t for biceps inflammation, and why he went to the AFL (to get reps). So, what can we expect from Ricky Tiedemann for 2024 fantasy baseball?
PSYCHE! Before we get into the post, just wanted to say I announced on Patreon that I set up an NFBC league, so there’s likely only a few spots left. If you haven’t played before with us, it’s $150 to join, winner gets $1000, 2nd place gets $350 and 3rd place gets their money back. Draft starts at 1 PM ET on Monday, and it’s a 4-hour clock. So you don’t need to be near your computer, it’s a slow draft. That also means it’ll take a good two to three weeks. If you want to join, the link is: NFBC League. Anyway II, the Ricky Tiedemann 2024 fantasy:
Well the opening was a lot about when we might see Ricky Tiedemann with the Jays. The part left off: He looks like one of the most promising arms in the minors for when he gets the call. His fastball touches 99. Here’s some smoke:
#BlueJays No. 1 prospect @TiedemannRicky3 has punched out four @FiveGuys batters through two innings here in Hartford! pic.twitter.com/efnjYCFpgd
— New Hampshire Fisher Cats (@FisherCats) August 17, 2023
Lefties hitting 99 MPH is far from as normal as it is for righties. So, righty hitters seeing it and going, “Eff this,” won’t be that weird. Here’s a few more pitches, including a slider that I could see hitting a batter while he’s swinging.
5 perfect frames. 9 K’s.#BlueJays No. 6 prospect Ricky Tiedemann cruised for the @DunedinBlueJays. pic.twitter.com/nlZMdtFNSp
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 30, 2022
Honestly, I’m not sure how righties are hitting that 81 to 82 MPH slider after seeing the 99 MPH filth. Forget lefties. If he can get the ball over the plate, he’s going to be a nightmare for years to come. Therein lies his two biggest issues. First off, the command. I’m not sure hitters need to swing. They might be enticed into swinging, but his command in Double-A for 32 IP was a 5.6 BB/9. That’s goofy bad. Oh, don’t get me wrong, we’re here because if hitters swing, they can’t make contact (16.3 K/9), but why swing? If he can get the ball over, then forget about it. He will be an ace. That might not be until 2025, though. Or 2026. Or never. Pitchers with nasty stuff but bad command become Randy Johnson, or they become relievers.
In 2022, Ricky Tiedemann threw 78 IP; in 2023, he threw 44 IP. As mentioned earlier, he threw in ACL to see if he can build up some stamina. Pitchers only have so many bullets and the Jays might want him to fire them in the majors. I could see him breaking camp with the Jays if they take a page from the Braves, and let him throw 100 IP in the majors. I could also see them letting him go to Triple-A, and not seeing more than 30 IP in the majors. He only has so many IP he can possibly pitch in 2024, assuming he’s healthy. So, there’s a lot to like here. He could be an ace, but I highly doubt he’s anything worth drafting in most redraft leagues, unless he breaks camp, and, even then, I wouldn’t put him in vs. a patient team. For 2024, I’ll give Ricky Tiedemann projections of 3-4/4.36/1.34/64 in 49 IP.
John Gray or Dean Kremer in standard 5X5 roto?
Gray
Man!!! A 3-4 record, 4.36 ERA and 49 IP is giving me goosebumps! Like I indicated yesterday, this year’s rookie class is a whole lotta meh!!!
Ha
Yeah the stuff is legit and the control needs refinement. The bigger concern for me is the injury risk and his durabilty. I am not saying that pitchers should have zero risk, but he’s had a few injuries already (shoulder, biceps). He really hasn’t pitched all that much.
Yeah, he’s high upside all the way…Command and injury risk are huge…If the Jays could get 50 IP of middle relief from him, it would prolly be better for them, but it would mess up his arm more, potentially
Im in, im in!!!, Better Burrito Boyz ready to defend the “middle of the pack”, “also ran”, “meh roster” Titles!!!!!, drafting early rules!!!!!!!, only thing that worries me about tiedemann is his workload and bjays ineptitude at developing top arms….
Nice! LFG!
Good to hear Boyz!
Grey!!!
Nice Tiedemann outlook, I have him in my dynasty thanks to The Itch! Here’s hoping the Randy Johnson part deux story evolves.
Last night my bestball concluded. Here’s the draft results.
It’s points with hitters scoring 1xH, 1xBB, 3xHR, 3xSB and pitchers scoring -1.5xER, -0.5 (H+BB), 6xW, 6xSV and 3xQS
Round Ov Pick Pos Player
1 1 OF Ronald Acuna Jr.
1 2 OF Julio Rodriguez
1 3 P Spencer Strider
1 4 OF Corbin Carroll
1 5 SS Bobby Witt Jr.
1 6 OF Juan Soto
1 7 OF Kyle Tucker
1 8 OF Mookie Betts
1 9 P Gerrit Cole
1 10 OF Aaron Judge
1 11 OF Fernando Tatis Jr.
1 12 1B Freddie Freeman
2 13 P Corbin Burnes
2 14 SS Trea Turner
2 15 OF Shohei Ohtani
2 16 1B Matt Olson
2 17 OF Yordan Alvarez
2 18 3B Jose Ramirez
2 19 3B Rafael Devers
2 20 P Kevin Gausman
2 21 3B Austin Riley
2 22 OF Kyle Schwarber
2 23 1B Bryce Harper
2 24 SS Corey Seager
3 25 P Zack Wheeler
3 26 OF Luis Robert Jr.
3 27 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
3 28 P Luis Castillo
3 29 1B Pete Alonso
3 30 P Pablo Lopez
3 31 SS Francisco Lindor
3 32 2B Ozzie Albies
3 33 2B Marcus Semien
3 34 P Zac Gallen
3 35 3B Gunnar Henderson
3 36 P Logan Webb
4 37 P Tyler Glasnow
4 38 SS Elly De La Cruz
4 39 P Tarik Skubal
4 40 P George Kirby
4 41 SS Bo Bichette
4 42 P Aaron Nola
4 43 OF Adolis Garcia
4 44 2B Jose Altuve
4 45 P Kodai Senga
4 46 P Framber Valdez
4 47 OF Michael Harris II
4 48 3B Manny Machado
5 49 P Freddy Peralta
5 50 OF Randy Arozarena
5 51 OF Christian Yelich
5 52 OF Mike Trout
5 53 OF Nolan Jones
5 54 SS Oneil Cruz
5 55 1B Paul Goldschmidt
5 56 C Adley Rutschman
5 57 P Max Fried
5 58 P Logan Gilbert
5 59 P Blake Snell
5 60 3B Alex Bregman
6 61 P Dylan Cease
6 62 P Jesus Luzardo
6 63 SS CJ Abrams
6 64 3B Royce Lewis
6 65 P Yoshinobu Yamamoto
6 66 2B Gleyber Torres
6 67 P Justin Steele
6 68 P Joe Ryan
6 69 2B Nico Hoerner
6 70 P Zach Eflin
6 71 C J.T. Realmuto
6 72 OF Cody Bellinger
7 73 P Grayson Rodriguez
7 74 P Josh Hader
7 75 2B Ketel Marte
7 76 1B Christian Walker
7 77 P Eury Perez
7 78 SS Matt McLain
7 79 OF Bryan Reynolds
7 80 2B Ha-seong Kim
7 81 SS Xander Bogaerts
7 82 P Kyle Bradish
7 83 C Will Smith
7 84 OF George Springer
8 85 OF Josh Lowe
8 86 OF Jazz Chisholm Jr.
8 87 P Chris Bassitt
8 88 C William Contreras
8 89 OF Ian Happ
8 90 P Max Scherzer
8 91 1B Triston Casas
8 92 P Bobby Miller
8 93 P Joe Musgrove
8 94 3B Nolan Arenado
8 95 P Emmanuel Clase
8 96 P Cole Ragans
9 97 P Edwin Diaz
9 98 P Devin Williams
9 99 P Hunter Greene
9 100 OF Anthony Santander
9 101 OF Nick Castellanos
9 102 P Walker Buehler
9 103 P Sonny Gray
9 104 1B Spencer Torkelson
9 105 OF Lane Thomas
9 106 3B Max Muncy
9 107 P Tanner Bibee
9 108 SS Dansby Swanson
10 109 2B Zack Gelof
10 110 P Jose Berrios
10 111 P Merrill Kelly
10 112 P Carlos Rodon
10 113 OF Jordan Walker
10 114 P Jordan Montgomery
10 115 OF Evan Carter
10 116 OF Seiya Suzuki
10 117 SS Willy Adames
10 118 1B Yandy Diaz
10 119 P Camilo Doval
10 120 1B Josh Naylor
11 121 1B Vinnie Pasquantino
11 122 OF Cedric Mullins
11 123 OF Jorge Soler
11 124 P Shane Bieber
11 125 P Nathan Eovaldi
11 126 OF Esteury Ruiz
11 127 OF Brandon Nimmo
11 128 3B Josh Jung
11 129 P Mitch Keller
11 130 1B Christian Encarnacion-Strand
11 131 OF Marcell Ozuna
11 132 P Shota Imanaga
12 133 C Sean Murphy
12 134 2B Bryson Stott
12 135 P Gavin Williams
12 136 OF TJ Friedl
12 137 P Hunter Brown
12 138 1B Rhys Hoskins
12 139 P Shane Baz
12 140 C Cal Raleigh
12 141 P Justin Verlander
12 142 P Yu Darvish
12 143 2B Luis Arraez
12 144 OF Chas McCormick
13 145 OF Lars Nootbaar
13 146 SS Anthony Volpe
13 147 OF Steven Kwan
13 148 OF Teoscar Hernandez
13 149 P Eduardo Rodriguez
13 150 P Alexis Diaz
13 151 2B Andres Gimenez
13 152 1B Spencer Steer
13 153 P Lucas Giolito
13 154 3B Alec Bohm
13 155 OF Eloy Jimenez
13 156 OF Masataka Yoshida
14 157 P Cristian Javier
14 158 P Triston McKenzie
14 159 P Michael King
14 160 OF Riley Greene
14 161 P David Bednar
14 162 P Raisel Iglesias
14 163 2B Nolan Gorman
14 164 OF James Outman
14 165 1B Nathaniel Lowe
14 166 P Chris Sale
14 167 P Clayton Kershaw
14 168 SS Trevor Story
15 169 OF J.D. Martinez
15 170 3B Jake Burger
15 171 P Reid Detmers
15 172 3B Isaac Paredes
15 173 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes
15 174 P Braxton Garrett
15 175 3B Ryan McMahon
15 176 P Jordan Romano
15 177 P Nick Pivetta
15 178 P Bailey Ober
15 179 1B Ryan Mountcastle
15 180 2B Jonathan India
16 181 OF Kerry Carpenter
16 182 P Bryce Miller
16 183 OF Wyatt Langford
16 184 P Mason Miller
16 185 P Paul Sewald
16 186 C Willson Contreras
16 187 C Yainer Diaz
16 188 P Jhoan Duran
16 189 P Charlie Morton
16 190 SS Ezequiel Tovar
16 191 P Nestor Cortes Jr.
16 192 P Ryan Helsley
17 193 P Pete Fairbanks
17 194 P Marcus Stroman
17 195 P Aaron Civale
17 196 SS Jeremy Pena
17 197 OF Jack Suwinski
17 198 OF Jarren Duran
17 199 P Nick Lodolo
17 200 P Ryan Pressly
17 201 OF Daulton Varsho
17 202 2B Thairo Estrada
17 203 OF Starling Marte
17 204 P Ryan Pepiot
18 205 3B Noelvi Marte
18 206 P Bryan Woo
18 207 SS Jackson Holliday
18 208 SS J.P. Crawford
18 209 3B Matt Chapman
18 210 P Brayan Bello
18 211 2B Edouard Julien
18 212 OF Taylor Ward
18 213 2B Tommy Edman
18 214 P Yusei Kikuchi
18 215 P Miles Mikolas
18 216 2B Christopher Morel
19 217 P Brandon Pfaadt
19 218 P Jon Gray
19 219 C Salvador Perez
19 220 C Keibert Ruiz
19 221 3B Junior Caminero
19 222 P Evan Phillips
19 223 SS Carlos Correa
19 224 P MacKenzie Gore
19 225 OF Max Kepler
19 226 P Cristopher Sanchez
19 227 2B Jorge Polanco
19 228 OF MJ Melendez
20 229 P Taj Bradley
20 230 P Andrew Abbott
20 231 C Jonah Heim
20 232 3B Eugenio Suarez
20 233 OF Alex Verdugo
20 234 P Lance Lynn
20 235 C Francisco Alvarez
20 236 P Reese Olson
20 237 OF Byron Buxton
20 238 OF Tommy Pham
20 239 1B Jose Abreu
20 240 P Kenta Maeda
21 241 C Mitch Garver
21 242 OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
21 243 2B Brandon Drury
21 244 P Griffin Canning
21 245 1B Andrew Vaughn
21 246 OF Jackson Chourio
21 247 C Gabriel Moreno
21 248 SS Zach Neto
21 249 OF Jarred Kelenic
21 250 C Logan O’Hoppe
21 251 OF Nelson Velazquez
21 252 P Andres Munoz
22 253 SS Jordan Lawlar
22 254 C Bo Naylor
22 255 2B Brandon Lowe
22 256 P Dane Dunning
22 257 OF Andrew Benintendi
22 258 OF Jake Fraley
22 259 P Sawyer Gipson-Long
22 260 P Emmet Sheehan
22 261 P Seth Lugo
22 262 OF Sal Frelick
22 263 1B Josh Bell
22 264 C Luis Campusano
23 265 P Tanner Scott
23 266 OF Tyler O’Neill
23 267 SS Amed Rosario
23 268 OF Leody Taveras
23 269 2B Gavin Lux
23 270 P Trevor Rogers
23 271 OF Bryan De La Cruz
23 272 P Dean Kremer
23 273 1B Anthony Rizzo
23 274 P Jameson Taillon
23 275 P Kyle Harrison
23 276 P Ranger Suarez
24 277 OF Kris Bryant
24 278 3B Jeimer Candelario
24 279 P Bryce Elder
24 280 2B Ronny Mauricio
24 281 1B Justin Turner
24 282 OF Brent Rooker
24 283 3B Maikel Garcia
24 284 P John Means
24 285 P Adbert Alzolay
24 286 P J.P. Sears
24 287 OF Austin Hays
24 288 OF Parker Meadows
25 289 OF Matt Wallner
25 290 1B Ty France
25 291 3B Yoan Moncada
25 292 OF Brandon Marsh
25 293 OF Will Benson
25 294 1B Nolan Schanuel
25 295 P Kyle Gibson
25 296 P Josiah Gray
25 297 P Edward Cabrera
25 298 1B Ryan Noda
25 299 P Michael Wacha
25 300 OF Giancarlo Stanton
26 301 1B Kyle Manzardo
26 302 OF Michael Conforto
26 303 OF Heston Kjerstad
26 304 P Kenley Jansen
26 305 P Clay Holmes
26 306 P Clarke Schmidt
26 307 P DL Hall
26 308 SS Orlando Arcia
26 309 2B Whit Merrifield
26 310 P Kutter Crawford
26 311 C Tyler Stephenson
26 312 2B Brendan Rodgers
27 313 1B Rowdy Tellez
27 314 C Alejandro Kirk
27 315 P Brady Singer
27 316 P Patrick Sandoval
27 317 P Andrew Heaney
27 318 OF Ceddanne Rafaela
27 319 P Graham Ashcraft
27 320 OF Trent Grisham
27 321 OF Mark Canha
27 322 P Ricky Tiedemann
27 323 P J.P. France
27 324 P AJ Smith-Shawver
28 325 C Elias Diaz
28 326 P Mike Clevinger
28 327 OF Pete Crow-Armstrong
28 328 P Taijuan Walker
28 329 SS Masyn Winn
28 330 SS Tim Anderson
28 331 P Gavin Stone
28 332 P Alex Cobb
28 333 P Jose Quintana
28 334 1B Joey Meneses
28 335 C Shea Langeliers
28 336 OF Lee Jung-hoo
29 337 2B Luis Rengifo
29 338 2B Jeff McNeil
29 339 C Danny Jansen
29 340 C Gary Sanchez
29 341 C Austin Wells
29 342 P Paul Skenes
29 343 2B Brendan Donovan
29 344 P Tyler A. Wells
29 345 2B Jordan Westburg
29 346 3B Colt Keith
29 347 3B J.D. Davis
29 348 OF Mickey Moniak
30 349 SS Vaughn Grissom
30 350 3B Anthony Rendon
30 351 OF Eddie Rosario
30 352 3B Brett Baty
30 353 OF Henry Davis
30 354 3B DJ LeMahieu
30 355 P Yennier Cano
30 356 OF Jose Siri
30 357 SS Javier Baez
30 358 P James Paxton
30 359 P Logan Allen
30 360 OF Charlie Blackmon
31 361 3B Coby Mayo
31 362 SS Ezequiel Duran
31 363 P Sean Manaea
31 364 1B Jake Cronenworth
31 365 OF Alek Thomas
31 366 3B Curtis Mead
31 367 P Frankie Montas
31 368 C Endy Rodriguez
31 369 C Ryan Jeffers
31 370 P Ken Waldichuk
31 371 1B C.J. Cron
31 372 P Chase Silseth
32 373 P Chris Paddack
32 374 P Alek Manoah
32 375 P Joe Boyle
32 376 OF Willi Castro
32 377 OF Luke Raley
32 378 P Michael Lorenzen
32 379 OF Wilyer Abreu
32 380 SS Geraldo Perdomo
32 381 P Steven Matz
32 382 OF Chris Taylor
32 383 SS Jon Berti
32 384 P Cade Horton
33 385 P Luis Severino
33 386 3B Zach McKinstry
33 387 2B Cavan Biggio
33 388 P Jack Flaherty
33 389 P Matt Brash
33 390 P Jordan Wicks
33 391 OF Adam Duvall
33 392 P Hyun Jin Ryu
33 393 OF Jasson Dominguez
33 394 P Robert Gasser
33 395 P Kyle Hendricks
33 396 2B Mauricio Dubon
34 397 OF Matt Vierling
34 398 1B Carlos Santana
34 399 P Patrick Corbin
34 400 1B Elehuris Montero
34 401 P Wade Miley
34 402 P Jose Alvarado
34 403 1B Matt Mervis
34 404 P Brandon Williamson
34 405 3B Mark Vientos
34 406 P Louie Varland
34 407 SS Jorge Mateo
34 408 P Tylor Megill
35 409 P Kyle Finnegan
35 410 2B Michael Massey
35 411 OF Brenton Doyle
35 412 P Zack Littell
35 413 2B Luis Garcia
35 414 P Hurston Waldrep
35 415 1B Wilmer Flores
35 416 P Matt Manning
35 417 P Adrian Houser
35 418 P Tanner Houck
35 419 OF Mitch Haniger
35 420 1B LaMonte Wade Jr.
36 421 P Jose Leclerc
36 422 OF Ramon Laureano
36 423 P Zack Thompson
36 424 2B Tyler Black
36 425 OF Harrison Bader
36 426 P Max Meyer
36 427 OF Dylan Crews
36 428 P Casey Mize
36 429 P Craig Kimbrel
36 430 P Tyler Anderson
36 431 2B Brice Turang
36 432 OF Jesus Sanchez
37 433 SS Colson Montgomery
37 434 3B Patrick Wisdom
37 435 P Paul Blackburn
37 436 OF Joc Pederson
37 437 P Trevor Bauer
37 438 P Jhony Brito
37 439 OF Andrew McCutchen
37 440 P Bryan Abreu
37 441 P Alex Lange
37 442 P Ryne Nelson
37 443 OF Hunter Renfroe
37 444 P Jose Urquidy
38 445 C Travis d’Arnaud
38 446 P Alex Faedo
38 447 OF Colton Cowser
38 448 P A.J. Puk
38 449 P Julian Merryweather
38 450 OF Mike Yastrzemski
38 451 P Orion Kerkering
38 452 3B Michael Busch
38 453 P Javier Assad
38 454 SS Liover Peguero
38 455 3B Taylor Walls
38 456 C Jake Rogers
39 457 P Robert Suarez
39 458 P Garrett Whitlock
39 459 3B Jared Triolo
39 460 P Michael Kopech
39 461 1B Alex Kirilloff
39 462 OF Luis Matos
39 463 P Carlos Estevez
39 464 C Tyler Soderstrom
39 465 P A.J. Minter
39 466 OF James Wood
39 467 P Aaron Ashby
39 468 2B Davis Schneider
40 469 P Jacob deGrom
40 470 P Lance McCullers Jr.
40 471 OF Seth Brown
40 472 P Matt Strahm
40 473 P Scott Barlow
40 474 P Cal Quantrill
40 475 P Jacob Lopez
40 476 P Erick Fedde
40 477 OF Garrett Mitchell
40 478 OF Hunter Goodman
40 479 P Jordan Lyles
40 480 3B Justyn-Henry Malloy
Some weird ones.
Trout in round 5, 5.2
Strider in round 1, 1.3
Riley in round 2, 2.1
Six pitchers were off the board before I took my first SP in round 3 (PabLo) at 3.30.
Anyway what do you think of the draft and the format?
Cheers,
Ante
Unless I’m reading the format wrong (possible) or can’t do math (probable), seems decent closers would be more valuable than decent SPs? Say, Hader with 34 saves = 204 points, while Strider with 16 wins and 25 QS = 171 points. And that’s before substracting ERs and H+BB, which Strider will have more of due to IP volume no matter how good he is.
Well, this was easy to check. In 2023, Hader earned 167 points (2-W, 0-QS, 33-SV, 32-H, 30-BB, 8-ER) and Strider earned MINUS 54 points (20-W, 16-QS, 0-SV, 146-H, 58-BB, 80-ER). Can’t be right. What am I missing here?
I get that in bestball Strider’s worst starts wouldn’t count for the fantasy team’s totals … but highly doubt that would overcome the 200+ deficit.
I’m guessing IP or K wasn’t listed in the scoring method
FivePoundBass!!
Thank you! Guilty as charged.
K=1.5
IP=1.5
Cheers,
Ante
Ante, Ante, Ante. At least I’m practicing some math today. Updated 2023 totals: Strider 647.5, Hader 379. No contest.
Haha
I think Anti forgot to list points earned for K’s. Might be 3 points fpr each K.
Yeah
Yeah, I don’t love Strider that early, but that’s around where he’s going
Thanks for this Ante! Don’t do points leagues but can still see some similar values.Good luck this season
Wow, what a deal on Curtis Mead! Kidding…Trout in round 5 is early or late? Seems okay to me…Strider’s going in the 1st, that is a little early…Riley is a 2nd rounder no?