First Friday after the trade deadline and we have a 14 game slate on FanDuel. Since my head’s still spinning like my 3 year old struggling to steer the bumper cars, we’ll get through these same faces in different places together. I’m pretty excited to see what Chris Archer can do with a fresh start in Pittsburgh. He comes in at a very reasonable $9,000, and faces a pretty righty heavy Cardinals team (could see 6 + the pitcher), that sports a bottom-third wOBA and wRC+ vs RHP. Let’s see what else this Friday slate brings us.
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Patrick Corbin, SP: $9,800 – Who would’ve thought that on August 3rd Corbin would own a 30.6% K-Rate? The roof will be closed in Arizona (helps pitchers), and the Giant bats don’t really scare me.
Alex Wood, SP: $8,300 – This is a conditional pick. If Houston rolls out their B-Squad, I like Wood as a sneaky GPP play. Altuve and Correa already on the DL, and Springer hasn’t started since 7/30, so this lineup could be really watered down. Also, Wood has been really good of late, having a QS in 6 of his last 7 starts.
Vince Velasquez, SP: $8,000 – Flying V gets hit hard by LHBs that don’t strike out. While Justin Bour does hit the ball hard, he strikes out at a 26.3% rate. If he can get around Bour, I think Velasquez has a really solid day.
Anibal Sanchez, SP: $8,000 – I love Anibal 3.0 (4.0?). He’s really re-re-reinvented himself, throwing a deadly cutter. The Mets didn’t scare me before they traded one of their best hitters away (Asdrubal Cabrera), so they definitely don’t scare me here. Also, the Mets never put up runs for DeGrom.
Nationals‘ Bats – The Nationals, specifically the LHBs, are my favorites today, but of course they’re pricey and/or could get chalky. The Reds’ SP, Anthony DeSclafani sports a .410 wOBA and a .400(!) ISO vs LHBs. For perspective, that wOBA ranks 5th worst out of 208 SPs. So sign me up for Adam Eaton ($2,900), Bryce Harper ($4,300), Juan Soto ($3,800), Matt Adams ($2,800), and Daniel Murphy ($3,300). I think Eaton and Adams may be pretty chalky due to their price, but the upside here is legit. However (here’s the bucket of cold water), there are thunderstorms forecast all day in our nation’s capital, so all of this lovely analysis could be for naught.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B: $4,000 – I believe this to be the perfect storm. A pitcher in Jaime Barria (.401 wOBA, .274 ISO vs RHBs) who has reverse splits vs a batter in EE with reverse splits? Yes please!!
Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $3,900 – Remember earlier this year when we were getting good-vintage Tyson Ross? Well, he’s been gone and has been getting crushed by LHBs. Rizzo’s finally heating up and should continue the Ross lefty crush streak.
Jakob Bauers, 1B: $3,600 – Or Jake, as his friends/everyone else calls him, Bauers has been crushing this year. On the flip side, Lucas Giolito, who at one point was one of the top pitching prospects in the minors, continues to struggle.
John Hicks, 1B; $2,200 – GPP punt play, but he crushes LHP.
Rougned Odor, 2B: $3,500 – As of this writing, I’m seeing that David Hess is the projected starter for the Orioles. Know who has a 5.58 SIERA and struggles against batters from both sides of the plate???? David Hess. Also, Odor has been crushing/running (.391, 4 HRs, 4 SBs) since the all star break.
Eduardo Escobar, 3B: $3,400 – Escobar crushes RHP (.290 ISO, .386 wOBA) and should bat 2nd in a potent D-Backs lineup.
Adrian Beltre, 3B: $2,700 – See Rougned Odor for Anti-David Hess analysis.
Colin Moran, 3B: $2,200 – This is more about being anti-John Gant and his 58.9% hard hit rate that he gives up to LHBs, than it is about Moran. Although, Moran is way to cheap and does hit righties well with a .285/.346/.427 triple slash.
Jorge Polanco, SS: $2,600 – The Twins are projected to have a 5+ run total, and personally, I don’t know where it’s going to come from. No more Dozier and Escobar in this lineup leaves 75 year old Joe Mauer, .200 AVG since the ASG Eddie Rosario, and Mr. 40% K-Rate himself, Miguel Sano. Polanco has been a bright spot since returning from his suspension though, batting a solid .284, while sporting an 11% BB rate.
Gregory Polanco, OF: $3,600 – See Colin Moran for the Anti-John Gant propaganda, but Polanco has crushed RHP also, with a .275 ISO and .371 wOBA.
Shin-Soo Choo, OF: $3,100 – Please, please let Baltimore start David Hess. Pleeeeeeeaaaaaaassssssseeeeeeee.
David Peralta, OF: $3,100 – Peralta should lead off vs Stratton and sports a .391 wOBA vs RHP.
Nick Castellanos, OF: $2,900 – Way too cheap for a stud sporting a .373/.451/.650 triple slash vs LHP.
Joey Gallo, OF: $2,700 – Double dong day if David Hess is on the mound!!
Ian Happ, OF: $2,700 – Cheap bat with pop vs Tyson Ross, who’s struggled vs LHBs.
Adam Frazier, OF: $2,200 – The trifecta of Anti-John Gant plays. Frazier typically leads off vs RHPs, which makes his price way too cheap.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The riskiest game on the slate is the Reds visiting Washington, where thunderstorms are projected all day. In New York, there’s a chance of thunderstorms for the Mets and Braves, but if that game plays, they should see winds > 10 mph blowing out to right. Also, the Yankees/Red Sox and Tigers/Athletics will see winds blowing out > 10 mph.
Doing Lines In Vegas
As of this writing (I’m on vacation with twin toddlers running circles around me), no lines greater than the Cubs at -195 facing the Padres. However, there are multiple games in the -160 – -185 range, with the Nats (-177), Phillies (-175), Twins (-185), Diamondbacks (-172), Athletics (-177), and Mariners (-162). It’s interesting to see the Twins so heavily favored despite selling off two of their biggest bats at the deadline in Dozier and Escobar.
