2019 #2EarlyMocks Rounds 8 – 14

Welcome to part two of my four-part #2EarlyMocks draft series. If you’re looking for part one you can find it here: 2EarlyMock Draft Part 1. In part one, we covered the sexy rounds — one through seven. Not too many risks or reaches in those rounds, you grab your studs and stars and reap the rewards. But in rounds eight through 14 is where owners are starting to take risks and grab their sleepers, rookies and potential bounce back players. I’ll be comparing the draft position of these players during this draft to their cumulative ADP on Fantasy Pros. This cumulative ADP includes the 288 players from ESPN’s ADP, the 999 players from Fantrax’s ADP plus data from CBS, Yahoo, RT Sports and NFBC draft results. Let’s get right into it:

Round 8

My Pick

Blake Treinen, RP, OAK: Round 6 and 7 saw the first two closers go off the board in Craig Kimbrel and Edwin Diaz and I didn’t want to be left out. Nabbing a tier 1 closer frees me up in later rounds to skip the tier 2 & 3 closers and grab some upside tier 4 closers and should be/could be non-closing relievers. Treinen had a sub-1.00 ERA AND a sub-1.00 WHIP with an 11.2 K/9. The Athletics have some solid young starting pitchers and had the 3rd best bullpen ERA this season. A repeat is definitely in the cards.

Interesting picks:

Adalberto Mondesi, 8.85: See what I mean about taking risks? Going into this season the biggest question marks surrounding Mondesi were his plate discipline and those question marks seemed to be answered in his 275 major league at-bats this season. And that answer is: Mondesi has plate discipline issues. Period. However, when you can finish 8th in the league with 32 stolen bases (again in only 275 ABs) you can deal with the 7:1 K/BB ratio. I’m a bit wary going into 2019 though — when you’re striking out 26.5% of the time and walking only 3.8% — smart pitchers are going to figure you out. Just ask Billy Hamilton. Not the one born in 1866.

Josh Donaldson, 8.90: Missing over three months of the season is an easy way to see your draft position tumble this far. However, Donaldson’s calf finally healed and he found himself playing for the Indians — he had a pretty typical Donaldson stat line: 50 ABs, 3 HR, 10 BB/10 K, .280 BA. His contract is up at the end of this season so that’s a wait-and-see, but a healthy offseason is a welcome sight.

Rounds 9 & 10

My Picks

Miguel Andujar, 3B, NYY: Andujar’s rookie of the year caliber performance might be allowing Brian Cashman to turn his attention away from signing Manny Machado this winter. Andujar showed no fear in the bright lights of the Big Apple: 83/27/92/2/.297. However, Cashman might still be courting Machado since Andujar was the worst defensive third-basemen in the majors by defensive WAR — but we don’t care about that! If they do still sign Machado — I’d consider a move to 1B or OF for Andujar.

Jurickson Profar, all the positions, TEX: Somehow it’s been six years since Profar made his big league debut as a much-hyped 19-year-old. Unfortunately due to injuries, playing time issues and disappointing big league performances — he hasn’t even sniffed his #1 prospect potential. However, with regular ABs open to Profar he has finally become a fantasy relevant player. I don’t know if he’s completely living up the potential that our wildest imaginations ran away with 6 years ago, but he definitely took strides in 2018 to get there. If he can get a handle on his home/away splits (.271 AVG/.874 OPS vs .237/.712) there’s still another level he can reach.

Interesting Picks

Mallex Smith, 9.99: Mallex Smith is everything we wished Billy Hamilton would be: a stolen base monster with decent plate discipline skills. Like Profar, Smith got consistent ABs and stayed healthy to reward his owners. He stole 40 bases (third in the league) and scored 65 runs (will definitely go up next year — he spent 89 games batting in the 6 through 9 spot in the line-up) while keeping a .296 AVG with a .367 OBP. By the end of the season, Smith had taken over the lead-off spot and that’s where he should be heading into 2019. I think at least 50 SBs could be a reality for him.

Brian Dozier, 9.101: Someone is going to get a crazy value like this next year. Dozier was never really a big batting average threat going into this year as his .251 career average before this season can attest. Maybe you were deceived by his .271 BA last year? Should’ve dug deeper and seen that average was propped up by a career high .297 BABIP. This year? .240 BABIP, .215 BA. If that BABIP normalizes I think we’ll see another 30/10 season from Dozier with a .260ish BA.  Unfortunately, Dozier didn’t do himself any favors by posting a career worst season in his contract year so he should come at a discount by some big league team in 2019 (and you as well!)

Shohei Ohtani, 9.102: This could be solid value for a DH-only Ohtani. It is hard to wrap your head around how he is going to have Tommy John surgery yet still DH in 2019, but I guess he’s been playing with the injury for a while now so he could be okay. After the elbow injury sidelined him on June 6th, Ohtani returned on July 3rd and played three solid months: 212 ABs: 42/16/41/9/.283. Just doubling those ABs in 2019 would be a fantastic season, but possibly reaching 550+ ABs? We’re talking MVP statistics.

Zack Wheeler, 10.110: This Wheeler was always in there. He wasn’t the 6th overall pick in 2009 for nothing. We saw it as recently as 2013-2014 when he dropped a 3.50 ERA over his first 49 starts. But injuries and an awful return in 2017 had our hopes dropped as low as a 438 ADP could take us. A lot of this dominance has come thanks to a mid-90’s fastball that was ranked 5th best in runs saved in the league this year behind only Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander and his teammate Jacob deGrom. He also had a top-25 slider and top-20 curveball which only helped his numbers. He was shut down due to an innings limit this season, but for 2018 he’s all in.

Yu Darvish, 10.114: This isn’t how you want to start a $126 million dollar contract: making 8 starts — half of which were disasters. Darvish was a solid 4th round SP2 going into the season, but this season-ending arm injury has to make you a little nervous for 2019. People are expecting him to be 100% for 2019, but I don’t know if he’ll be worth the risk for me unless he’s looking phenomenal in spring training. Doesn’t matter for the Cubs though — they’ve got Darvish on the book until 2023 when he’ll be 37.

Rounds 11 & 12

My Picks

Amed Rosario, SS, NYM: Rosario was looking downright busty in the worst meaning of that word heading into mid-July. From the start of the season until July 9th he only had 4 HRs, 4 SB and a .234 BA. From July 10th on though — something clicked for Rosario. He hit 5 HRs, stole 20 bases and hit .277. This version of Rosario more closely resembles who he was in the minors. 20+ SB potential, a solid .291 BA in 1,775 minor league ABs and a handful of HRs every season. This was a sad season for the Mets, but Rosario definitely makes the future look a little brighter.

Kyle Freeland, SP, COL: Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer may grab all the headlines, but Kyle Freeland needs to strongly be considered for the NL Cy Young. He has put up a 2.85 ERA/3.67 FIP all while making half of his starts in Coors Field. But here’s the thing — Freeland should ask to pitch all his games at Coors Field. This year he had a 2.40 ERA there with a 3.23 ERA on the road! Like Wheeler above, Freeland was working with a top-10 fastball and top-15 slider, but instead of a curveball — Freeland’s cutter was the 10th best in the league at preventing runs.

Interesting Picks

Eloy Jimenez, 11.122: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went at pick #50 so this one didn’t sneak up on me as much. Jimenez has nothing left to prove in the minors and has only Nicky Delmonico in front of him on the major league roster. Unless he’s a complete nightmare in spring training or if the White Sox are playing the service time game with him, I think he’s up by May 1st the latest. In 55 AAA games last season Eloy hit 12 HRs with a .355 BA and close to a 2:1 K/BB ratio. This guy has all the makings of an elite 4-category star. Think: J.D. Martinez upside.

Ross Stripling, 11.128: has one of the highest 2018 ADP’s on this list. The starter-turned-reliever-turned-starter-turned-reliever was forced to turn-starter again in 2018 and was one of the Dodgers best starting pitchers for the middle part of the season. Unfortunately, Stripling returned from injury in September and didn’t quite look like the same guy giving up 9 ERs in 11.2 IP. It could be said that there was some fatigue with Stripling since the 122 IP was only the second highest in his career eclipsed only by his 127.2 back 2013 as a minor leaguer. It’ll be interesting to see what the Dodgers do this offseason. Do they retool and bring in new players pushing Stripling back to the pen? 

Tyler White, 12.134: Then there’s Tyler White who went undrafted in any league on any site anywhere. I can only speak for myself that I’ve been waiting to see who’d emerge at first base for the Astros. Hitting in a lineup after George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Yulieski Gurriel etc is an RBI production paradise. For a while it was looking like maybe Brian McCann would switch over to 1B, then we all saw the phenomenal burly 6’4” A.J. Reed and and his 34 AAA HRs in 2017. But no — it was little 5’11” Tyler White who hit 25 HRs with a .300 BA in AAA in 2017 that emerged while still being burly, if that moves your needle. I’m a little worried about White’s playing time in 2019. Gurriel is scheduled to make $10.4 million next season so he’s not going anywhere. White could still end up as an impact bat in 2019 while splitting time between 1B and DH, but I need more of a track record and more of a guarantee of ABs to draft him 134 overall.

Rounds 13 & 14

My Picks

Josh Hader, RP, MIL: Is it a guarantee that Hader gets saves next season? No. Is it a guarantee that he’ll pitch about 4 innings every week and give you at least 7 strikeouts? Oh you betchya! Treinen + Hader = 55ish saves, 200+ Ks and a low ERA/WHIP regardless if Hader closes or not.

Harrison Bader, OF, StL: Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, Mitch Haniger, Harrison Bader. That’s my OF so far. Each guy has the potential to go at least 20/20. Hell, in only 379 ABs, Bader went 12/15 this season. Extrapolate that! Bader should be guaranteed the starting CF job next year and if they do the right thing — should also be leading off.

Interesting Picks

Rowdy Tellez, 13.147: A disastrous 2017 removed some of the shine from this once highly touted prospect. However, Tellez made some improvements in AAA this year to warrant a call-up by the Blue Jays. I think we were all getting a little prospect happy in the draft at this point because I don’t think Tellez deserves a top-150 draft selection nor do I think that’s where he’ll be drafted when it comes to draft for the real thing. That’s not to say he didn’t have a nice MLB debut: 10/4/14/0/.314 in 70 ABs.

Eduardo Escobar, 14.163: With his low ADP and position flexibility — I can imagine Eduardo Escobar was found on a lot of championship rosters this season. Right now, Escobar is a man without a home, but with his 2018 I think he’ll quickly be swiped up by a team looking to compete in 2019. Escobar made some improvements to drop his GB% to a career low while increasing his LD% to it’s highest number. If he can continue these trends with a career high hard-hit percentage I think he could possibly turn some of his second place total of 48 doubles into a 25-30 HR.

Nick Pivetta, 14.166: I have Pivetta tabbed for a huge breakout in 2019. His 6.02 ERA in 2017 masked a 4.87 FIP. In 2018, his 4.77 ERA shared the same fate with a 3.80 FIP. He was actually 4th in largest difference between ERA and FIP. In order to take his next step as a starter he’ll need to limit his H/9 (8.9) and HR/9 (1.3.) But 10.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 does help him in limiting the damage he allows. Pivetta did a have a top-15 curveball this season, unfortunately he also had a bottom-30 fastball that wasn’t doing him any favors.