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Dano

Getting STATy With It: 2014 Luckiest Pitchers

July 1, 2014 | Deep Leagues, Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell, Starters | 28 Comments

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As I write this, I’m on a plane. I knew I wouldn’t have internet, so I asked myself what data could I pull and play with to help you play with your team. Let me play guarantee fairy again… I’m supposed to be writing about Deep Impact. I guarantee you can use this list to trade away pitchers that are over-performing for long term deep impact while targeting other pitchers that can provide you with more short-term value. Use the comments section below and I’ll scold or virtual high-five your trade offers.

Let’s get the approach out of the way, i.e. feel free to skip this section… I won’t get hardcore into it, but can in the comments below. I start by averaging the 3 expected ERA’s (xERA): xFIP, SIERA & Stephen Staude’s BERA. I then find the ERA-xERA differential and average this with a Luck minus Skill score. Luck stats incorporate BABIP compared to linedrive-rates (LD%), homerun to flyball ratios (HR/FB), and left-on-base percentage (LOB%). Skill stats incorporate an averaged contact (Ct%), swinging strike (SwStr%) and strikeout rate minus walk rate (K%-BB%) as well as a combined groundball to flyball ratio (GB/FB) and infield flyball rate (IFFB%). Let’s just say I z-score the daylights out of everything. I can furnish the full matrix so that you can sort by all of these factors and combined effects if you want to request below. Stats are complete as of noon CST on 6/24.

So who are the luckiest pitchers in baseball?

The value of this overall Luck-Skill score is verified immediately with the following list:

  1. Chris Young (3.22 score): Duh. Seattle is helping but the guy has an elite LD% (16.7) which is somewhat backing up the BABIP (best in baseball, .209). He also has the 7th best LOB% in baseball and a top 40 HR/FB ratio. Know that he’s sporting the 6th worst skill score after Kevin Correia, JA Happ, Nicholas Martinez, Bartolo Colon and Jeremy Guthrie. Ew.
  2. Dillon Gee (2.32): Pretty sad that Chris Young is almost an entire standard deviation away from #2 on this list.
  3. Danny Duffy (2.13).
  4. Mark Buehrle (1.98), Obviously.
  5. Shelby Miller (1.84), Yup.
  6. Doug Fister (1.83).
  7. Nicholas Martinez (1.77).
  8. Jeremy Guthrie (1.63).
  9. Anibal Sanchez (1.61).
  10. Andrew Cashner (1.59).

I still like Danny Duffy and Shelby Miller somewhat and certainly wouldn’t sell Fister, Sanchez or Cashner without a solid return, but if I’m selling for dynasty considerations, all 5 of these guys are perfect sell candidates. Others I like, but have been relatively lucky to date: Jon Niese (#12), Adam Wainwright (#14) even though he is still rather skillsy, Scott Kazmir (#17) and Julio Teheran (#20). Don’t be surprised with guys like Waino and Teheran this high. They’re solid pitchers, but not to the degree of their current surface stats. Again, based on the return, these two guys can return quite the value from teams trying to win-now. In one league, I traded Sonny Gray for Mookie Betts and Joc Pederson earlier this season. Based on a similar list to this and pitch repertoires, I picked up Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh making the Gray loss relatively moot. That’s impact baby.

On the other side of the equation, these guys are uber-worth targeting based on their skill/luck factors to date, i.e. are very skillsy without much luck (Zack Wheeler or to a glorious degree, Masahiro Tanaka); or are relatively skillsy, with bad luck to date (Homer Bailey or to a glorious degree, Stephen Strasburg). That’s right: Tanaka’s overall luck score (slightly unlucky actually) is close to average meaning his performance to date is all skill. Strasburg’s skill score is about 1 standard deviation away from Tanaka’s but he’s also been pretty unlucky (1 standard deviation below average or 131/145 from this list) meaning if you can somehow buy, then do it because there’s a good chance he’s even better than we see right now.

Here are the straight-up skillsiest pitchers in baseball according to this skill score:

  1. Clayton Kershaw (3.77).
  2. Dallas Keuchel (3.20), Count me in the Dallas Buyer’s Club baby!
  3. Masahiro Tanaka (2.87).
  4. Jose Fernandez (2.71).
  5. Francisco Liriano (2.62), with Felix Hernandez, Corey Kluber, Tyson Ross, Cole Hamels, Stephen Strasburg, Chris Sale and even Justin Masterson and Chris Archer are all within the top-20.

But incorporating luck, here are the guys with a relatively bad amount of luck or not much luck at all with skill scores at least one standard deviations better than average. This doesn’t mean these are the best pitchers in this order. For example, Edwin Jackson is only 1 SD from the mean in the skill department. He’s just been pretty unlucky. Masterson is actually pretty skillsy, but has been slightly unlucky. Brandon McCarthy actually shows up #1 on this list, but his skill score is only slightly better than average. He’s just had the worst luck. He’s the Chris Young of bad luck.

  1. Clayton Kershaw (-2.42) Luck=.11; Skill=3.77; ERA Differential z-score=-1.18
  2. Francisco Liriano (-2.33) Luck=-.79; Skill=2.62; ERA Diff=-1.24
  3. Edwin Jackson (-2.30)
  4. Justin Masterson (-1.97)
  5. Stephen Strasburg (-1.97)
  6. Homer Bailey (-1.81)
  7. David Price (-1.75)
  8. Ervin Santana (-1.72)
  9. Corey Kluber (-1.59)
  10. Yusmiero Petit (-1.32)
  11. Jose Fernandez (-1.29)
  12. Mashairo Tanaka (-1.22)

Others absolutely worth noting that you should buy into: Alex Wood (-1.11), Tyson Ross (-1.11), Zack Wheeler (-1.10), Dallas Keuchel (-1.07). And naturally up high on this list: Felix Hernandez (-.95), Mike Minor (-.84), Alex Cobb (-.82), Zack Greinke (-.72) and Cole Hamels (-.54).

Again, I can furnish the full matrix if you request below, but here is the list ordered by the luckiest SOB’s, with their overall, luck, skill and expected ERA differentials presented:

Rk As of noon, 6/24/14 Team OVERALL Luck Skill xERAdiff
1 Chris Young Mariners 3.22 1.91 -1.82 2.71
2 Dillon Gee Mets 2.32 1.33 -1.36 1.96
3 Danny Duffy Royals 2.13 1.62 -0.88 1.77
4 Mark Buehrle Blue Jays 1.98 0.63 -1.02 2.31
5 Shelby Miller Cardinals 1.84 0.71 -1.66 1.30
6 Doug Fister Nationals 1.83 0.94 -1.34 1.38
7 Nicholas Martinez Rangers 1.77 0.07 -2.01 1.45
8 Jeremy Guthrie Royals 1.63 0.65 -1.86 0.75
9 Anibal Sanchez Tigers 1.61 1.36 -0.61 1.26
10 Andrew Cashner Padres 1.59 0.71 -1.08 1.39
11 Tanner Roark Nationals 1.54 1.29 -0.75 1.05
12 Jon Niese Mets 1.48 0.56 -1.15 1.25
13 Cesar Ramos Rays 1.45 0.59 -1.61 0.70
14 Adam Wainwright Cardinals 1.39 1.10 -0.48 1.20
15 Tom Koehler Marlins 1.37 0.75 -1.30 0.70
16 Bud Norris Orioles 1.32 0.53 -1.23 0.89
17 Scott Kazmir Athletics 1.29 1.78 0.57 1.38
18 Alfredo Simon Reds 1.27 0.73 -0.36 1.45
19 Josh Collmenter D-backs 1.24 0.56 -1.35 0.57
20 Julio Teheran Braves 1.21 1.38 0.27 1.32
21 Drew Pomeranz Athletics 1.12 0.52 -0.45 1.26
22 Jered Weaver Angels 1.11 1.12 -0.34 0.76
23 Dustin McGowan Blue Jays 1.11 0.94 -0.41 0.86
24 Chris Tillman Orioles 1.11 0.16 -1.72 0.33
25 Kevin Correia Twins 1.08 -0.07 -2.89 -0.65
26 John Danks White Sox 1.04 0.61 -1.07 0.40
27 Scott Feldman Astros 1.02 -0.11 -1.67 0.47
28 Kyle Lohse Brewers 0.99 0.73 -0.54 0.70
29 Jason Vargas Royals 0.96 0.51 -0.35 1.07
30 Erik Bedard Rays 0.86 0.16 -1.61 -0.04
31 Bartolo Colon Mets 0.84 -0.11 -1.97 -0.18
32 Johnny Cueto Reds 0.82 1.51 0.99 1.12
33 Yovani Gallardo Brewers 0.82 0.35 -0.76 0.53
34 Hyun-Jin Ryu Dodgers 0.77 0.36 -0.63 0.56
35 Tim Hudson Giants 0.75 0.74 0.44 1.19
36 A.J. Burnett Phillies 0.74 -0.16 -1.18 0.47
37 Jesse Chavez Athletics 0.69 0.17 -0.19 1.02
38 Tommy Milone Athletics 0.68 0.26 -0.39 0.71
39 Drew Smyly Tigers 0.64 0.36 -0.22 0.69
40 Henderson Alvarez Marlins 0.63 -0.01 0.07 1.34
41 Josh Beckett Dodgers 0.63 1.03 1.19 1.41
42 Lance Lynn Cardinals 0.62 0.73 0.35 0.87
43 Jarred Cosart Astros 0.61 0.50 -0.43 0.29
44 Kyle Gibson Twins 0.54 1.38 1.16 0.86
45 David Phelps Yankees 0.53 -0.23 -1.03 0.26
46 Sonny Gray Athletics 0.52 0.72 0.34 0.66
47 Edinson Volquez Pirates 0.48 0.57 -0.46 -0.07
48 Drew Hutchison Blue Jays 0.42 0.21 -0.52 0.12
49 Jhoulys Chacin Rockies 0.41 -0.05 -1.04 -0.16
50 J.A. Happ Blue Jays 0.39 -0.85 -2.13 -0.50
51 Nathan Eovaldi Marlins 0.38 0.17 -0.59 0.00
52 Aaron Harang Braves 0.36 0.08 -0.73 -0.09
53 Dan Haren Dodgers 0.30 -0.37 -0.64 0.33
54 Jordan Lyles Rockies 0.29 -0.59 -0.58 0.58
55 Michael Wacha Cardinals 0.28 0.63 0.75 0.69
56 Kyle Kendrick Phillies 0.27 0.13 -0.28 0.13
57 Matt Garza Brewers 0.22 0.02 -0.44 -0.01
58 Brad Peacock Astros 0.21 0.04 -0.57 -0.19
59 C.J. Wilson Angels 0.19 0.61 0.49 0.26
60 Charlie Morton Pirates 0.18 -0.05 0.08 0.48
61 Phil Hughes Twins 0.16 0.03 -0.53 -0.25
62 Felix Doubront Red Sox 0.16 -0.47 -1.11 -0.33
63 Jeff Samardzija Cubs 0.15 0.23 0.73 0.81
64 Travis Wood Cubs 0.15 0.36 -0.39 -0.45
65 Mike Leake Reds 0.12 -0.23 -0.49 -0.02
66 Ryan Vogelsong Giants 0.12 -0.43 -0.84 -0.17
67 Jake Peavy Red Sox 0.08 -0.12 -0.45 -0.18
68 Wily Peralta Brewers 0.05 -0.04 0.57 0.72
69 Roberto Hernandez Phillies 0.05 -0.32 -0.29 0.13
70 Ubaldo Jimenez Orioles 0.02 -0.42 -0.49 -0.01
71 Wei-Yin Chen Orioles -0.01 -0.27 -0.31 -0.07
72 Jason Hammel Cubs -0.03 0.32 0.68 0.29
73 Collin McHugh Astros -0.03 0.69 1.38 0.63
74 Roenis Elias Mariners -0.07 0.08 0.31 0.10
75 Yu Darvish Rangers -0.10 -0.05 0.77 0.62
76 Jose Quintana White Sox -0.10 -0.50 -0.63 -0.33
77 R.A. Dickey Blue Jays -0.11 0.02 0.51 0.27
78 Garrett Richards Angels -0.11 0.88 1.60 0.49
79 Bronson Arroyo D-backs -0.14 -0.28 -0.09 -0.09
80 Jake Arrieta Cubs -0.14 0.48 1.69 0.92
81 Martin Perez Rangers -0.14 -0.40 -0.61 -0.50
82 Hisashi Iwakuma Mariners -0.18 -0.24 0.19 0.07
83 Miguel Gonzalez Orioles -0.23 -0.14 0.01 -0.31
84 Chris Sale White Sox -0.23 1.29 1.96 0.21
85 Tony Cingrani Reds -0.27 -0.41 0.07 -0.04
86 Madison Bumgarner Giants -0.28 0.35 1.18 0.27
87 Samuel Deduno Twins -0.29 -0.16 -0.81 -1.23
88 Matt Cain Giants -0.31 -0.15 -0.42 -0.88
89 Gavin Floyd Braves -0.32 -0.17 1.52 1.06
90 Yordano Ventura Royals -0.32 0.31 1.18 0.23
91 Rick Porcello Tigers -0.32 -0.57 0.35 0.28
92 James Shields Royals -0.36 -0.56 0.15 -0.01
93 John Lackey Red Sox -0.39 -0.22 0.32 -0.23
94 Justin Verlander Tigers -0.39 0.09 0.22 -0.66
95 Cliff Lee Phillies -0.41 -0.51 0.06 -0.25
96 Gio Gonzalez Nationals -0.41 0.43 0.37 -0.88
97 Gerrit Cole Pirates -0.44 -0.25 0.53 -0.10
98 Eric Stults Padres -0.45 -1.27 -1.57 -1.20
99 Hiroki Kuroda Yankees -0.48 -0.21 0.17 -0.58
100 Brett Oberholtzer Astros -0.48 -0.43 -0.57 -1.11
101 Jorge de la Rosa Rockies -0.50 -0.04 0.37 -0.58
102 Max Scherzer Tigers -0.51 -0.21 0.17 -0.64
103 Jordan Zimmermann Nationals -0.53 -0.06 1.23 0.24
104 Tyler Skaggs Angels -0.53 -0.10 0.18 -0.78
105 Ian Kennedy Padres -0.53 -0.25 -0.16 -0.97
106 Cole Hamels Phillies -0.54 0.50 2.07 0.49
107 Marco Estrada Brewers -0.54 -0.03 -0.19 -1.24
108 Andre Rienzo White Sox -0.55 -1.03 -1.37 -1.46
109 Hector Noesi – – – -0.58 -0.76 -0.93 -1.33
110 Vidal Nuno Yankees -0.65 -0.92 -1.32 -1.69
111 Chris Archer Rays -0.67 0.24 2.09 0.50
112 Zack Greinke Dodgers -0.72 -0.43 1.08 0.07
113 Jon Lester Red Sox -0.72 -0.42 1.03 0.00
114 Jenrry Mejia Mets -0.75 -0.62 0.20 -0.67
115 Jake Odorizzi Rays -0.76 -0.12 0.15 -1.24
116 Alex Cobb Rays -0.82 0.24 1.13 -0.74
117 Colby Lewis Rangers -0.84 -1.41 -1.44 -1.71
118 Mike Minor Braves -0.84 -1.61 -0.55 -0.62
119 Ricky Nolasco Twins -0.89 -1.04 -0.75 -1.50
120 Wade Miley D-backs -0.91 -0.91 -0.20 -1.12
121 Felix Hernandez Mariners -0.95 0.42 2.41 0.09
122 Josh Tomlin Indians -1.05 -1.26 0.03 -0.82
123 Juan Nicasio Rockies -1.06 -1.40 -0.87 -1.60
124 Dallas Keuchel Astros -1.07 0.80 3.20 0.26
125 Zack Wheeler Mets -1.10 -0.07 1.33 -0.79
126 Tyson Ross Padres -1.11 -0.32 2.09 0.20
127 Alex Wood Braves -1.11 -0.79 0.94 -0.49
128 Tim Lincecum Giants -1.13 -1.18 -0.14 -1.22
129 Franklin Morales Rockies -1.19 -1.47 -0.42 -1.34
130 Masahiro Tanaka Yankees -1.22 -0.12 2.87 0.55
131 Jose Fernandez Marlins -1.29 0.53 2.71 -0.39
132 Yusmeiro Petit Giants -1.32 -0.12 1.35 -1.16
133 Robbie Ross Rangers -1.33 -1.54 -0.66 -1.78
134 Clay Buchholz Red Sox -1.52 -1.43 -1.34 -2.96
135 Corey Kluber Indians -1.59 -0.53 2.17 -0.48
136 Ervin Santana Braves -1.72 -1.26 1.34 -0.85
137 David Price Rays -1.75 -0.65 1.35 -1.51
138 Homer Bailey Reds -1.81 -1.10 1.16 -1.35
139 Stephen Strasburg Nationals -1.97 -1.07 1.97 -0.90
140 Justin Masterson Indians -1.97 -0.40 2.43 -1.12
141 Edwin Jackson Cubs -2.30 -1.84 1.13 -1.62
142 Francisco Liriano Pirates -2.33 -0.79 2.62 -1.24
143 Jacob Turner Marlins -2.41 -1.86 -0.38 -3.34
144 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers -2.42 0.11 3.77 -1.18
145 Brandon McCarthy D-backs -2.55 -2.31 0.24 -2.55

 

Follow Dano on Twitter @Rotobanter. Reach out to him if you’re going to be in MSP for the 2014 All Star Game.

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