There are so many Tommy Boy quotes that I can manipulate to start this post, so you choose which one…

a) I can get a good look at Performance by sticking my head up BABIP’s a**, but I’d rather take xBABIP’s word for it.

b) I write fantasy baseball posts for the American working man, because that’s who I am and that’s who I care about.

c)  You: Prince Fielder, Hmmmm, he should get better.”

      Me: “This guy is batting .231, which is actually backed up because of the gross groundball rate (11+% jump) and hitting into the shift with a sense of urgency, and all you can say is, Hmmmm, he should get better?”

d) The season is drivin’ along, la-de-da, woo. And you have Justin Morneau batting .338. And then you look at your team. Tires go EEEEEEEEE! Whoa, that was close.

Now let’s see what happens if you have Prince Fielder on your team… You’re drivin’ along, Tires go EEEEEEEE! I CAN’T STOP! “Oh my God, I’m burning alive! And this isn’t a fire sale! No! I can’t feel my legs!” Here comes the meat wagon. And the medic gets out and says, “Oh my God”. New guy’s around the corner puking his guts out…

…Whichever quote you go with, if you own Fielder then consider yourself the new guy puking his guts out. This post is the meat wagon.

Prior to the season, I gave some face to BABIP by looking at power and speed scores in conjunction with their balls in play data. Now it’s time to look at whose been lucky and vice versa.

Using the same updated xBABIP formula, here are a few guys within the top-35 likely to drop-off from a BABIP perspective: Tyler Flowers, Justin Upton, Alexei Ramirez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and perhaps even Eric Hosmer, Yasiel Puig, Torii Hunter, Xander Bogaerts and naturally Charlie Blackmon, although he doesn’t fall into my red flag category. He’s only 27 points above his xBABIP. Colorado is probably the main effect here, but he’s also got a solid power-speed combo. Let’s look at a few other Colorado BABIPs vs. xBABIPs:

  1. Charlie Blackmon: .336 BABIP vs. .309 xBABIP 42nd highest BABIP differential
  2. Nolan Arenado: .325 BABIP vs. .303 xBABIP = 47th highest BABIP differential
  3. Troy Tulowitzki: .402 BABIP vs. .363 xBABIP = 27th highest BABIP differential
  4. Carlos Gonzalez: .308 BABIP vs. .313 xBABIP (bada$$) meaning we can actually expect a small rebound!
  5. Justin Morneau: .333 BABIP vs. .299 xBABIP = 33rd highest BABIP differential

To back-up Blackmon’s success, along with Brian Dozier, he made it not too far down my ‘BABIP with Face’ Score List prior to the season. I do know what I’m talking about.

On the other side of the equation, here are guys within the top-30 BABIP differentials likely to rebound:

C- Carlos Santana

1B- Allen Craig

2B- Jedd Gyorko

3B- Nick Castellanos

SS- Elvis Andrus

MI- Brian Dozier, which is awesome considering the counting stats he’s been providing (on pace for 40hr/55sb at the moment)

CI- Chase Headley

OF- Allen Craig

A few other rebounds worth noting:

One of my favs, Freddie Freeman, actually has a xBABIP approaching .400 again, so we can actually expect a rebound! Jose Reyes and Jason Kipnis are two middle infielders likely to rebound, when and if healthy. Mike Moustakas, Brad Miller, Dan Uggla and Khris Davis are also on this list, but I can’t trust them due to their contact and/or balls in play issues.

But where or where is Prince Fielder  on this list? At the time I prepared the below matrix (5/9), Prince Fielder’s actual BABIP is .250. His expected (x)BABIP is .318, however even the xBABIP formula has its limitations. It only takes into account the Balls In Play breakdown (% of balls hit on the ground/in the air/over the fence/etc.) and not how hard balls are hit or a hitter’s speed. While Prince Fielder is #40 of 265 on my likely to rebound list, he winds up at #305 of 439 on Jeff Zimmerman’s April xBABIP list that incorporates hard hit% and speed scores (I believe the hard hit% isn’t public knowledge). It’s also worth noting that my list doesn’t involve defensive shifts and the effect it has on xBABIP: Jeff Zimmerman also noted that Prince Fielder has hit into the most infield shifts (about a 5.5 shift vs. no shift ratio). Seriously, the effect is real and I would field(er) offers for him.

I’m not going to stamp a guarantee on this post to make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside. If you want me to take a dump in a box and mark it guaranteed, I will. I got spare time. But for now, for your fantasy team’s sake, for your daughter’s sake, ya might wanna think about buying a quality product from the below list (or anyone in the Rockies lineup), and keep the above contingencies in mind. The following list starts with the highest BABIP differential (most likely to drop off) all the way to the other side of the spectrum (80 plate appearances as the qualifier). The Rockies noted above are bolded:

Name BB/K BABIP xBABIP xBABIPdiff GB/FB LD% IFFB% HR/FB Spd Swing% Ct% SwStr%
Tyler Flowers 0.2 0.492 0.3730 0.1190 2.62 26.60% 0.00% 7.70% 2.1 50.50% 70.10% 15.10%
Lonnie Chisenhall 0.27 0.44 0.3214 0.1186 0.64 28.00% 9.10% 0.00% 5.3 50.00% 82.70% 8.90%
Justin Upton 0.3 0.415 0.3242 0.0908 0.76 21.60% 6.10% 27.30% 6.4 49.60% 69.50% 15.00%
Alexei Ramirez 0.39 0.364 0.2751 0.0889 1.5 15.30% 23.80% 9.50% 6 53.60% 86.30% 7.40%
Marlon Byrd 0.17 0.419 0.3353 0.0837 1.06 24.40% 9.10% 12.10% 1.9 57.10% 72.50% 15.40%
Collin Cowgill 0.32 0.41 0.3265 0.0835 1.23 27.50% 23.10% 15.40% 4.5 42.80% 76.50% 10.00%
Derek Norris 1.1 0.421 0.3383 0.0827 1.4 18.60% 10.00% 10.00% 2.7 37.10% 79.80% 7.50%
Brandon Barnes 0.39 0.464 0.3818 0.0822 1.6 29.10% 6.70% 0.00% 7 51.60% 72.00% 13.80%
Eric Hosmer 0.5 0.356 0.2784 0.0776 1.54 16.10% 10.30% 2.60% 1.6 48.90% 82.90% 8.20%
Casey McGehee 0.57 0.387 0.3117 0.0753 1.44 21.70% 11.80% 0.00% 1.8 39.20% 83.00% 6.80%
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 0.49 0.377 0.3047 0.0723 0.59 19.40% 8.80% 17.60% 1.4 47.70% 65.20% 17.20%
Yasiel Puig 0.56 0.376 0.3058 0.0702 1.69 12.40% 3.40% 13.80% 5.7 47.70% 72.80% 12.00%
Juan Lagares 0.16 0.4 0.3316 0.0684 0.78 21.30% 11.10% 3.70% 4.9 46.50% 77.80% 10.20%
Juan Francisco 0.43 0.389 0.3287 0.0603 0.88 22.00% 5.90% 29.40% 4.5 43.70% 71.20% 12.20%
Andrew McCutchen 1 0.369 0.3149 0.0541 1.24 22.40% 13.50% 10.80% 6.2 43.20% 78.10% 9.30%
Matt Adams 0.1 0.404 0.3500 0.0540 1.15 29.70% 12.10% 6.10% 2.3 51.60% 79.80% 10.30%
Brandon Phillips 0.22 0.333 0.2799 0.0531 1.1 21.20% 23.10% 5.10% 1.8 56.60% 75.90% 13.40%
Leonys Martin 0.25 0.369 0.3177 0.0513 2.05 21.00% 23.80% 4.80% 7.7 50.00% 73.70% 12.80%
Mike Napoli 0.7 0.368 0.3220 0.0460 1.16 17.30% 9.70% 16.10% 1 39.40% 77.00% 8.80%
John Jaso 0.5 0.367 0.3215 0.0455 0.81 24.00% 9.50% 4.80% 5.4 37.00% 76.70% 8.60%
Torii Hunter 0.18 0.345 0.3013 0.0437 0.83 18.90% 10.00% 10.00% 2.8 54.00% 78.80% 11.50%
Rajai Davis 0.28 0.37 0.3269 0.0431 1.35 15.30% 15.40% 7.70% 6.9 48.00% 81.90% 8.40%
Chris Owings 0.35 0.375 0.3325 0.0425 2.1 22.50% 10.00% 5.00% 5.8 48.70% 78.30% 10.50%
Xander Bogaerts 0.53 0.367 0.3255 0.0415 1.03 23.80% 10.00% 3.30% 2 39.90% 73.50% 10.40%
Chris Heisey 0.27 0.308 0.2670 0.0410 1.29 25.00% 41.20% 5.90% 6.1 51.70% 79.30% 10.60%
Mike Trout 0.45 0.365 0.3249 0.0401 0.97 19.80% 5.40% 16.20% 7.5 40.30% 79.00% 8.30%
Troy Tulowitzki 1.67 0.402 0.3625 0.0395 1.24 26.70% 9.10% 27.30% 3.5 41.90% 82.50% 7.00%
Jason Kubel 0.29 0.414 0.3755 0.0385 0.96 31.00% 4.00% 4.00% 2.9 41.80% 71.40% 11.50%
Juan Uribe 0.26 0.356 0.3179 0.0381 1.34 17.60% 13.20% 10.50% 1.3 56.50% 81.00% 10.40%
Dayan Viciedo 0.48 0.363 0.3261 0.0369 1.3 18.30% 12.10% 6.10% 3 49.10% 79.20% 10.00%
Bryce Harper 0.38 0.377 0.3406 0.0364 1.25 22.40% 5.00% 5.00% 4.5 49.90% 75.70% 12.00%
Matt Holliday 0.78 0.33 0.2943 0.0357 1.32 18.50% 15.80% 5.30% 1.9 49.70% 79.70% 10.00%
Justin Morneau 0.24 0.333 0.2982 0.0348 1.53 20.90% 16.70% 19.40% 2.5 58.10% 82.60% 10.00%
Chris Colabello 0.21 0.36 0.3262 0.0338 2 16.70% 4.00% 16.00% 1.8 46.30% 70.30% 13.70%
Jackie Bradley Jr 0.5 0.309 0.2757 0.0333 1.5 15.40% 13.60% 0.00% 6.8 38.80% 73.30% 10.20%
Danny Espinosa 0.13 0.333 0.2999 0.0331 1.13 16.40% 12.50% 16.70% 6.2 52.20% 66.10% 17.30%
Lucas Duda 0.39 0.339 0.3085 0.0305 0.83 16.70% 10.00% 13.30% 2 42.30% 72.90% 11.30%
Paul Goldschmidt 0.3 0.398 0.3693 0.0287 1.59 26.70% 2.90% 20.60% 3.6 41.90% 81.30% 7.70%
Shin-Soo Choo 0.96 0.419 0.3906 0.0284 1.68 23.40% 0.00% 13.60% 4.6 37.70% 82.70% 6.40%
Brandon Crawford 0.59 0.308 0.2801 0.0279 1.09 16.30% 12.50% 9.40% 4.8 48.80% 78.90% 10.20%
Adam Dunn 0.69 0.344 0.3163 0.0277 0.96 19.70% 3.70% 18.50% 2.3 37.90% 71.90% 10.00%
Charlie Blackmon 0.64 0.336 0.3085 0.0275 1.23 19.70% 15.90% 15.90% 7.3 49.60% 91.90% 4.40%
Yangervis Solarte 1 0.341 0.3150 0.0260 1.03 19.80% 5.90% 2.90% 0.8 42.90% 89.00% 4.70%
Jayson Werth 0.6 0.364 0.3381 0.0259 1 22.30% 10.00% 10.00% 4.1 38.30% 83.30% 6.50%
Colby Rasmus 0.16 0.278 0.2538 0.0242 0.67 13.60% 14.30% 21.40% 1.8 48.10% 67.60% 15.50%
George Springer 0.21 0.347 0.3230 0.0240 1.44 12.00% 16.70% 5.60% 1.8 53.20% 66.10% 17.40%
Nolan Arenado 0.39 0.325 0.3024 0.0226 1 22.10% 19.60% 11.80% 2.5 54.30% 83.60% 8.50%
Seth Smith 0.7 0.352 0.3296 0.0224 1.5 17.80% 0.00% 8.30% 2.7 40.80% 78.20% 8.30%
Jonathan Schoop 0.06 0.308 0.2861 0.0219 1.22 11.80% 14.80% 11.10% 1.5 57.60% 72.60% 15.40%
Howie Kendrick 0.52 0.349 0.3286 0.0204 3.74 16.70% 0.00% 10.50% 7 47.60% 78.40% 10.10%
Conor Gillaspie 0.47 0.382 0.3628 0.0192 1 33.30% 11.10% 0.00% 1.3 53.90% 83.80% 8.50%
Jimmy Rollins 0.65 0.301 0.2826 0.0184 1 20.80% 15.80% 7.90% 6.5 40.50% 85.60% 5.90%
Giancarlo Stanton 0.47 0.354 0.3357 0.0183 0.97 21.50% 13.50% 29.70% 4.2 45.80% 69.90% 13.00%
Melky Cabrera 0.23 0.37 0.3533 0.0167 1.69 24.80% 5.70% 17.10% 5.8 45.80% 84.20% 7.10%
Junior Lake 0.1 0.391 0.3753 0.0157 1.92 17.40% 0.00% 23.10% 7.5 55.70% 58.10% 22.20%
Alex Rios 0.43 0.36 0.3445 0.0155 1.35 23.00% 5.40% 5.40% 5.1 42.60% 86.60% 5.40%
Starling Marte 0.25 0.376 0.3613 0.0147 2.09 23.60% 9.10% 9.10% 8.2 47.10% 71.40% 13.40%
Chase Utley 0.63 0.353 0.3386 0.0144 1.35 23.80% 2.90% 8.80% 2.7 43.30% 83.90% 6.40%
Ian Kinsler 0.55 0.319 0.3059 0.0131 1.24 19.70% 16.70% 4.80% 4.3 41.90% 91.00% 3.40%
Welington Castillo 0.2 0.318 0.3050 0.0130 0.58 18.60% 8.30% 11.10% 0.7 44.10% 74.70% 10.60%
Chris Iannetta 0.94 0.25 0.2372 0.0128 0.68 13.00% 14.30% 7.10% 3.7 46.30% 72.80% 12.10%
Dee Gordon 0.27 0.396 0.3834 0.0126 3.22 24.80% 11.10% 5.60% 8.9 43.50% 88.80% 4.70%
Adam Jones 0.13 0.32 0.3076 0.0124 1.26 15.70% 10.50% 7.90% 6 55.40% 74.70% 13.70%
Hunter Pence 0.76 0.289 0.2772 0.0118 1.58 15.50% 15.80% 5.30% 7.4 46.50% 76.50% 10.50%
Nelson Cruz 0.4 0.313 0.3020 0.0110 1.14 16.30% 8.30% 25.00% 2.4 49.00% 75.40% 12.20%
Mike Aviles 0.57 0.35 0.3394 0.0106 1.19 24.60% 19.00% 4.80% 5.1 43.20% 88.30% 4.70%
Marcell Ozuna 0.3 0.309 0.2988 0.0102 1.64 13.90% 12.10% 15.20% 1.3 48.00% 67.50% 15.50%
Michael Bourn 0.18 0.327 0.3170 0.0100 2.15 19.60% 0.00% 0.00% 5.7 43.80% 81.70% 8.50%
Kurt Suzuki 1.5 0.306 0.2968 0.0092 1.06 22.40% 15.60% 3.10% 0.5 35.20% 93.60% 2.20%
Anthony Rendon 0.31 0.33 0.3210 0.0090 0.8 21.40% 4.10% 10.20% 6.1 42.70% 85.30% 6.20%
Christian Yelich 0.4 0.354 0.3459 0.0081 3.39 18.60% 0.00% 11.10% 7.3 43.10% 83.30% 6.70%
Joe Mauer 0.63 0.381 0.3730 0.0080 3.43 27.10% 0.00% 14.30% 3.6 38.50% 85.10% 5.60%
Brandon Belt 0.21 0.305 0.2976 0.0074 1 18.70% 13.50% 24.30% 4.2 53.50% 69.30% 16.00%
Michael Morse 0.28 0.316 0.3089 0.0071 1.38 17.90% 13.80% 27.60% 1.3 53.00% 77.60% 11.10%
Nick Markakis 0.93 0.322 0.3150 0.0070 1.19 21.70% 9.30% 4.70% 4 43.50% 91.50% 3.70%
Austin Jackson 0.83 0.318 0.3110 0.0070 0.68 20.70% 4.90% 4.90% 7.1 40.60% 84.50% 6.30%
Josh Reddick 0.3 0.274 0.2673 0.0067 1.1 14.90% 13.30% 3.30% 6.2 48.70% 78.10% 10.60%
Carlos Gomez 0.31 0.351 0.3447 0.0063 0.8 23.70% 7.30% 19.50% 6.5 55.10% 70.80% 15.80%
David Wright 0.24 0.352 0.3459 0.0061 1.23 26.40% 2.90% 2.90% 2.9 44.80% 79.50% 8.90%
Emilio Bonifacio 0.4 0.384 0.3780 0.0060 3.24 23.40% 0.00% 0.00% 5.4 44.10% 81.40% 8.00%
Abraham Almonte 0.15 0.308 0.3020 0.0060 1.48 16.10% 9.50% 4.80% 6.2 39.70% 73.00% 10.70%
Adam LaRoche 0.83 0.378 0.3721 0.0059 0.9 32.20% 6.50% 16.10% 1.1 37.80% 80.90% 7.10%
Desmond Jennings 0.53 0.319 0.3138 0.0052 1.75 18.90% 10.70% 14.30% 6.8 38.50% 81.50% 7.30%
Jose Bautista 1.42 0.304 0.2988 0.0052 0.95 18.80% 16.70% 21.40% 2.5 34.90% 79.30% 7.30%
Alex Gordon 0.45 0.284 0.2797 0.0043 1.26 11.80% 7.00% 2.30% 2.5 48.30% 83.20% 8.40%
Jonathan Lucroy 0.87 0.33 0.3258 0.0042 1.48 18.80% 6.10% 3.00% 1.8 43.00% 89.20% 4.80%
Matt Wieters 0.33 0.365 0.3610 0.0040 0.53 30.40% 8.30% 13.90% 1.6 51.00% 84.00% 7.80%
Garrett Jones 0.32 0.317 0.3145 0.0025 0.89 16.30% 7.90% 13.20% 1 48.00% 79.10% 10.10%
Drew Stubbs 0.32 0.4 0.3977 0.0023 1.79 25.00% 0.00% 14.30% 5.5 40.00% 75.00% 10.00%
J.J. Hardy 0.25 0.299 0.2969 0.0021 0.88 22.10% 12.50% 0.00% 0.9 42.40% 87.60% 5.30%
Josh Donaldson 0.49 0.298 0.2962 0.0018 1.04 13.50% 4.30% 14.90% 3.4 43.60% 77.60% 9.50%
DJ LeMahieu 0.67 0.345 0.3434 0.0016 2.78 21.80% 0.00% 0.00% 4.8 46.30% 85.70% 5.90%
Evan Gattis 0.13 0.27 0.2686 0.0014 1.03 10.00% 12.90% 22.60% 0.1 53.10% 70.60% 15.10%
Carlos Ruiz 1.07 0.338 0.3367 0.0013 1.31 25.90% 15.40% 3.80% 4.7 36.60% 83.50% 5.90%
Brett Gardner 0.29 0.385 0.3851 -0.0001 2 23.10% 10.00% 5.00% 6 38.70% 83.50% 6.30%
Norichika Aoki 0.58 0.321 0.3214 -0.0004 3.29 17.40% 14.30% 0.00% 6 44.10% 89.00% 4.70%
James Loney 1.17 0.339 0.3395 -0.0005 1.13 26.40% 2.60% 2.60% 2.6 41.90% 89.80% 4.20%
Matt Joyce 1 0.324 0.3247 -0.0007 1.14 21.10% 14.30% 7.10% 2.2 38.20% 80.60% 7.10%
Josmil Pinto 0.72 0.254 0.2561 -0.0021 1.18 10.30% 21.40% 17.90% 1.4 41.00% 78.70% 8.70%
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.59 0.376 0.3784 -0.0024 1.88 28.70% 8.00% 4.00% 7.6 42.90% 84.10% 6.50%
Sam Fuld 0.35 0.281 0.2839 -0.0029 1.04 17.20% 11.50% 3.80% 7.9 44.90% 81.00% 8.40%
Mitch Moreland 0.26 0.357 0.3601 -0.0031 1.29 31.60% 11.80% 5.90% 3.5 46.10% 73.70% 12.00%
Aaron Hill 0.39 0.321 0.3242 -0.0032 0.71 26.80% 14.60% 6.30% 4.4 43.60% 82.40% 7.30%
Angel Pagan 0.42 0.352 0.3554 -0.0034 1.39 28.80% 6.10% 9.10% 4.1 45.30% 87.70% 5.30%
Jonathan Villar 0.25 0.299 0.3027 -0.0037 1.77 11.60% 0.00% 22.70% 8.5 46.80% 68.90% 13.60%
Robinson Chirinos 0.21 0.286 0.2904 -0.0044 1.26 15.70% 10.50% 10.50% 0.9 44.30% 80.70% 8.30%
Adeiny Hechavarria 0.36 0.333 0.3376 -0.0046 2.43 22.50% 4.30% 0.00% 5.5 51.00% 83.30% 8.70%
Carlos Gonzalez 0.3 0.308 0.3128 -0.0048 1.71 16.40% 5.90% 20.60% 5.9 52.80% 76.40% 12.00%
Will Venable 0.22 0.272 0.2775 -0.0055 1.56 16.90% 16.00% 0.00% 4 48.90% 70.50% 14.30%
Matt Kemp 0.33 0.344 0.3498 -0.0058 1.57 20.60% 0.00% 19.00% 3.7 47.20% 70.10% 14.30%
Daniel Murphy 0.39 0.348 0.3544 -0.0064 1.5 30.40% 12.50% 3.10% 6.6 45.50% 90.20% 4.40%
Mark Reynolds 0.28 0.271 0.2777 -0.0067 1.04 14.50% 21.70% 30.40% 3.5 49.60% 66.10% 16.80%
Steve Lombardozzi 0 0.356 0.3627 -0.0067 1.63 27.60% 12.50% 0.00% 5.7 50.60% 89.20% 5.00%
Adrian Gonzalez 0.55 0.281 0.2878 -0.0068 1.05 16.20% 9.30% 20.90% 3.1 54.30% 78.40% 11.20%
Ben Zobrist 1.11 0.286 0.2931 -0.0071 1.47 17.50% 18.40% 7.90% 4.2 39.30% 83.60% 6.10%
Jose Tabata 0.19 0.311 0.3221 -0.0111 2.92 20.30% 0.00% 0.00% 3.2 46.40% 80.30% 8.70%
Starlin Castro 0.37 0.296 0.3072 -0.0112 1.47 21.20% 13.90% 13.90% 2.5 48.60% 82.30% 8.50%
Yoenis Cespedes 0.68 0.271 0.2824 -0.0114 0.63 14.30% 8.30% 12.50% 3.2 49.40% 81.60% 8.70%
Derek Jeter 0.45 0.321 0.3331 -0.0121 2.4 19.00% 5.00% 5.00% 0.7 48.90% 83.00% 8.20%
Nick Punto 0.41 0.283 0.2951 -0.0121 1.06 22.20% 11.80% 0.00% 3.5 44.80% 79.10% 9.30%
Salvador Perez 0.69 0.26 0.2722 -0.0122 1.29 18.70% 21.10% 7.90% 2.5 50.90% 86.10% 6.80%
Albert Pujols 0.8 0.266 0.2783 -0.0123 1.32 14.30% 18.20% 22.70% 3.2 46.70% 82.40% 8.00%
A.J. Pollock 0.32 0.301 0.3133 -0.0123 1.19 10.50% 9.70% 9.70% 4.6 42.50% 79.00% 8.60%
Ryan Braun 0.39 0.333 0.3458 -0.0128 0.9 19.70% 3.30% 20.00% 6 48.50% 75.60% 10.20%
Trevor Plouffe 0.46 0.344 0.3568 -0.0128 1.09 25.80% 0.00% 3.00% 3.4 38.30% 77.50% 8.60%
Brandon Moss 0.48 0.293 0.3058 -0.0128 0.68 19.80% 7.30% 12.20% 4.4 51.50% 75.30% 12.20%
Omar Infante 0.91 0.278 0.2915 -0.0135 0.77 23.90% 21.30% 4.30% 5.5 41.20% 89.50% 4.30%
Scooter Gennett 0.35 0.319 0.3328 -0.0138 1.31 22.90% 6.30% 6.30% 4.7 50.00% 84.70% 7.60%
Ben Revere 0.13 0.324 0.3382 -0.0142 6.18 21.80% 9.10% 0.00% 8.5 41.70% 90.90% 3.70%
Ian Desmond 0.26 0.286 0.3002 -0.0142 1.55 11.60% 15.20% 12.10% 3.3 52.80% 70.10% 15.50%
Alcides Escobar 0.45 0.32 0.3348 -0.0148 1.39 22.10% 16.10% 3.20% 6.1 49.20% 83.30% 7.90%
Jose Lobaton 0.37 0.327 0.3424 -0.0154 1.16 22.60% 0.00% 5.30% 0.6 46.40% 77.10% 10.40%
Ryan Ludwick 0.39 0.329 0.3447 -0.0157 1.04 23.60% 7.40% 7.40% 0.3 51.70% 72.40% 13.80%
Ike Davis 0.88 0.276 0.2917 -0.0157 1.13 18.30% 17.40% 8.70% 2.4 39.80% 82.50% 6.90%
Evan Longoria 0.34 0.317 0.3334 -0.0164 1.47 22.20% 11.80% 11.80% 2.8 44.60% 79.60% 9.10%
Jed Lowrie 1.31 0.288 0.3045 -0.0165 0.56 23.20% 9.10% 3.60% 1.6 47.90% 90.10% 4.70%
Yunel Escobar 0.71 0.269 0.2860 -0.0170 1.47 15.20% 11.10% 5.60% 0.1 43.90% 84.70% 6.20%
A.J. Pierzynski 0.22 0.32 0.3371 -0.0171 1.77 20.80% 0.00% 13.60% 1.5 56.40% 80.50% 10.50%
Edwin Encarnacion 0.61 0.284 0.3011 -0.0171 0.76 16.70% 3.90% 11.80% 6.2 42.80% 84.20% 7.00%
Dustin Ackley 0.5 0.289 0.3068 -0.0178 1.21 19.50% 10.70% 3.60% 5 41.30% 80.10% 7.80%
Miguel Cabrera 0.33 0.323 0.3409 -0.0179 1.32 21.00% 2.90% 11.80% 1.3 50.30% 83.20% 8.20%
Robinson Cano 0.6 0.33 0.3489 -0.0189 2.58 19.80% 0.00% 3.80% 4.3 53.40% 83.50% 7.90%
Ryan Hanigan 0.6 0.3 0.3195 -0.0195 1.22 19.00% 8.70% 13.00% 0.2 36.90% 81.10% 6.90%
Marcus Semien 0.29 0.3 0.3195 -0.0195 1.09 19.80% 11.40% 8.60% 6.6 40.80% 75.60% 9.40%
Carlos Beltran 0.38 0.25 0.2701 -0.0201 0.89 14.40% 13.60% 11.40% 3 47.70% 87.60% 5.70%
Justin Smoak 0.3 0.299 0.3214 -0.0224 1.09 19.80% 8.60% 11.40% 2.1 45.40% 74.50% 11.20%
Wil Myers 0.38 0.309 0.3324 -0.0234 1.32 14.90% 10.80% 10.80% 2.2 45.60% 75.60% 10.80%
Victor Martinez 2.4 0.294 0.3174 -0.0234 1.02 22.00% 7.10% 16.70% 1.6 43.60% 93.10% 2.80%
David Ortiz 0.79 0.275 0.2996 -0.0246 0.86 17.50% 9.30% 14.00% 0.7 42.10% 81.30% 7.50%
Chris Davis 0.52 0.333 0.3582 -0.0252 0.9 28.30% 5.00% 10.00% 4.9 48.50% 67.20% 15.70%
Chris Johnson 0.13 0.322 0.3482 -0.0262 1.25 28.40% 3.60% 3.60% 0.1 58.60% 76.70% 13.30%
Hanley Ramirez 0.54 0.296 0.3225 -0.0265 1.28 18.80% 10.00% 10.00% 3.5 50.00% 78.80% 10.00%
Nate Schierholtz 0.27 0.256 0.2825 -0.0265 0.85 22.20% 14.70% 0.00% 5.5 52.70% 78.00% 10.70%
Jonny Gomes 0.48 0.277 0.3036 -0.0266 0.5 22.00% 15.40% 11.50% 1.1 37.30% 73.80% 9.90%
Yadier Molina 0.29 0.33 0.3567 -0.0267 1.58 27.30% 3.20% 12.90% 0.9 50.50% 85.20% 7.20%
Kyle Seager 0.54 0.267 0.2939 -0.0269 1.05 16.50% 5.40% 13.50% 2.2 41.50% 81.70% 7.20%
Dioner Navarro 0.75 0.312 0.3390 -0.0270 1.12 23.40% 2.90% 2.90% 3.6 43.30% 88.80% 4.80%
Coco Crisp 0.83 0.286 0.3132 -0.0272 1.1 21.80% 10.30% 10.30% 7 40.30% 84.60% 6.20%
Brandon Hicks 0.39 0.239 0.2662 -0.0272 0.48 11.50% 9.70% 19.40% 2 45.80% 60.60% 18.10%
Donnie Murphy 0.43 0.275 0.3026 -0.0276 1.37 13.50% 10.50% 5.30% 0.9 49.20% 74.80% 12.10%
Domonic Brown 0.42 0.275 0.3034 -0.0284 1.85 16.30% 7.40% 3.70% 4 51.80% 76.60% 12.20%
Alex Avila 0.43 0.361 0.3910 -0.0300 1.5 34.20% 10.00% 20.00% 2.5 40.40% 65.70% 13.60%
Ryan Flaherty 0.38 0.273 0.3043 -0.0313 2 22.20% 14.30% 0.00% 2.2 46.10% 80.00% 9.20%
Michael Choice 0.86 0.268 0.3000 -0.0320 1.67 17.20% 11.10% 11.10% 2.8 39.20% 78.10% 8.20%
David Murphy 1.18 0.284 0.3164 -0.0324 1.61 18.90% 10.70% 7.10% 3.8 43.50% 85.10% 5.70%
Billy Butler 0.41 0.29 0.3231 -0.0331 2.57 20.20% 9.50% 4.80% 1 43.30% 85.40% 6.80%
Grady Sizemore 0.5 0.274 0.3074 -0.0334 1.14 17.30% 6.90% 6.90% 5.5 44.30% 78.80% 9.40%
B.J. Upton 0.37 0.291 0.3250 -0.0340 1.28 17.50% 10.30% 6.90% 6.4 48.20% 66.80% 15.90%
Adam Eaton 0.69 0.317 0.3516 -0.0346 3.87 9.90% 0.00% 6.70% 5.7 43.50% 90.10% 4.10%
Miguel Montero 1.13 0.288 0.3228 -0.0348 1.1 20.40% 4.90% 9.80% 0.8 47.10% 84.10% 7.30%
Asdrubal Cabrera 0.4 0.283 0.3183 -0.0353 1 21.60% 10.50% 5.30% 5.6 50.40% 83.10% 8.20%
Martin Prado 0.33 0.293 0.3285 -0.0355 2.18 23.30% 21.40% 0.00% 4.4 38.50% 89.00% 4.20%
Yan Gomes 0.17 0.318 0.3541 -0.0361 1.12 24.30% 0.00% 16.00% 3.2 46.40% 76.40% 10.40%
Alfonso Soriano 0.15 0.275 0.3112 -0.0362 0.8 17.70% 2.30% 11.40% 1.6 51.50% 73.60% 13.50%
Mark Teixeira 0.67 0.273 0.3095 -0.0365 1.17 20.40% 22.20% 27.80% 1.1 41.70% 80.20% 7.80%
Luis Valbuena 0.77 0.286 0.3239 -0.0379 0.54 29.80% 11.50% 3.80% 3.4 39.60% 83.80% 5.60%
Anthony Rizzo 1.05 0.308 0.3461 -0.0381 1.31 23.70% 3.10% 21.90% 3.8 39.40% 78.20% 8.30%
Denard Span 0.57 0.283 0.3216 -0.0386 1.62 22.40% 10.30% 0.00% 8.2 45.10% 91.20% 3.90%
Dexter Fowler 0.4 0.307 0.3460 -0.0390 1.92 17.00% 4.00% 8.00% 5.4 43.70% 79.00% 8.80%
Everth Cabrera 0.11 0.339 0.3784 -0.0394 4.19 23.10% 0.00% 0.00% 5.4 45.40% 81.80% 8.10%
Chris Denorfia 0.29 0.33 0.3702 -0.0402 2.7 19.60% 0.00% 5.00% 6.8 43.00% 86.80% 5.60%
Jay Bruce 0.69 0.279 0.3199 -0.0409 1.43 21.10% 8.70% 13.00% 7.4 42.90% 68.40% 13.20%
Michael Brantley 1.1 0.274 0.3158 -0.0418 1.91 18.60% 6.10% 18.20% 4.7 40.20% 91.50% 3.30%
Lyle Overbay 0.73 0.275 0.3170 -0.0420 1.63 19.20% 0.00% 6.30% 3.9 44.40% 77.60% 9.80%
Dustin Pedroia 0.82 0.317 0.3590 -0.0420 2.21 25.00% 10.30% 3.40% 3.2 41.90% 88.10% 4.90%
Travis Snider 0.5 0.268 0.3101 -0.0421 1.82 18.60% 5.90% 17.60% 2.5 42.20% 81.50% 7.70%
Neil Walker 0.69 0.25 0.2923 -0.0423 0.98 19.50% 10.90% 13.00% 3.2 49.30% 87.70% 5.90%
Brian Roberts 0.6 0.307 0.3494 -0.0424 1 25.30% 7.10% 3.60% 6.7 47.60% 83.30% 7.80%
Kolten Wong 0.56 0.258 0.3009 -0.0429 3.08 13.10% 23.10% 0.00% 6.6 44.80% 88.30% 5.10%
Andre Ethier 0.36 0.307 0.3504 -0.0434 2.33 22.10% 5.60% 11.10% 2.6 48.40% 77.70% 10.40%
Gerardo Parra 0.36 0.314 0.3580 -0.0440 3.32 22.80% 4.50% 9.10% 4.8 47.80% 86.80% 6.30%
Todd Frazier 0.52 0.289 0.3334 -0.0444 1 22.10% 8.10% 13.50% 4.9 48.20% 77.10% 11.00%
Nick Swisher 0.59 0.247 0.2923 -0.0453 0.71 22.20% 15.60% 4.40% 1.4 41.30% 79.50% 8.20%
Aaron Hicks 0.65 0.24 0.2866 -0.0466 1.87 12.20% 0.00% 6.70% 4 35.00% 78.50% 7.50%
Matt Dominguez 0.42 0.25 0.2967 -0.0467 0.97 17.20% 7.70% 12.80% 1.8 46.50% 81.70% 7.90%
Joey Votto 1.08 0.303 0.3515 -0.0485 1.65 25.80% 3.80% 15.40% 1.9 39.10% 83.40% 5.80%
Marc Krauss 0.5 0.209 0.2580 -0.0490 0.56 13.30% 8.00% 8.00% 0.8 35.60% 74.40% 8.70%
Curtis Granderson 0.43 0.221 0.2705 -0.0495 1.17 17.70% 20.00% 10.00% 3.8 45.10% 70.30% 13.20%
Matt Carpenter 0.7 0.37 0.4205 -0.0505 1.37 35.40% 0.00% 3.70% 3.7 33.60% 87.80% 4.10%
Billy Hamilton 0.21 0.289 0.3404 -0.0514 1.24 16.40% 4.00% 4.00% 7.9 44.40% 85.60% 6.40%
Andrelton Simmons 0.71 0.265 0.3186 -0.0536 1.47 15.20% 8.30% 8.30% 3.8 50.10% 87.70% 6.30%
Kelly Johnson 0.33 0.245 0.2992 -0.0542 1.68 10.50% 5.30% 21.10% 4.6 43.70% 80.90% 8.00%
Yasmani Grandal 0.41 0.273 0.3273 -0.0543 0.96 20.30% 4.20% 16.70% 2.5 42.30% 71.20% 11.60%
Carl Crawford 0.31 0.284 0.3384 -0.0544 1.52 22.70% 3.70% 3.70% 5.7 53.70% 91.10% 5.20%
Brian McCann 0.31 0.204 0.2593 -0.0553 0.76 18.60% 17.80% 8.90% 1.7 48.00% 85.10% 6.80%
Erick Aybar 0.42 0.274 0.3297 -0.0557 1.9 24.30% 17.20% 6.90% 5.5 48.00% 91.00% 4.20%
Jason Heyward 0.48 0.258 0.3156 -0.0576 1.08 19.40% 10.50% 5.30% 4.2 43.60% 77.40% 9.60%
Chris Carter 0.33 0.213 0.2707 -0.0577 0.49 20.00% 17.10% 11.40% 3.1 46.10% 61.50% 17.00%
Alberto Callaspo 0.88 0.258 0.3162 -0.0582 1.03 20.70% 8.30% 8.30% 0.8 36.30% 90.40% 3.40%
Jean Segura 0.12 0.278 0.3367 -0.0587 4.27 17.70% 6.70% 13.30% 6.5 50.90% 85.20% 7.40%
Ryan Howard 0.28 0.286 0.3451 -0.0591 0.83 23.80% 2.90% 20.00% 3.2 49.60% 68.80% 15.30%
Jon Jay 0.46 0.297 0.3562 -0.0592 3 25.00% 0.00% 8.30% 3.9 49.20% 89.40% 5.10%
Jason Castro 0.26 0.292 0.3527 -0.0607 1.25 21.70% 4.20% 16.70% 2.8 44.50% 69.60% 13.30%
Alex Presley 0.14 0.232 0.2928 -0.0608 1.26 15.30% 14.80% 11.10% 3 48.50% 83.70% 7.80%
Derek Dietrich 0.44 0.304 0.3649 -0.0609 1.06 28.60% 5.90% 17.60% 4.9 38.80% 76.70% 9.70%
Jose Altuve 1 0.286 0.3487 -0.0627 1.52 20.30% 4.80% 2.40% 6.1 46.60% 89.60% 4.60%
Mike Zunino 0.1 0.302 0.3653 -0.0633 0.96 22.10% 0.00% 18.50% 4.3 59.30% 64.60% 19.10%
Jose Abreu 0.26 0.274 0.3379 -0.0639 1.4 21.50% 8.60% 34.30% 3.1 53.90% 70.90% 15.50%
Alejandro De Aza 0.29 0.213 0.2769 -0.0639 1.27 17.60% 18.20% 12.10% 5.3 47.20% 77.90% 10.40%
Jason Kipnis 1.06 0.25 0.3141 -0.0641 0.86 15.20% 2.80% 8.30% 4 43.30% 81.40% 8.00%
Mike Olt 0.21 0.186 0.2506 -0.0646 0.83 10.20% 12.50% 25.00% 0.9 45.90% 71.50% 12.40%
Pablo Sandoval 0.39 0.211 0.2759 -0.0649 1.39 19.60% 22.60% 6.50% 3.3 53.10% 77.20% 11.30%
Buster Posey 1.13 0.278 0.3450 -0.0670 1.25 25.00% 3.10% 21.90% 1.3 42.20% 86.60% 5.20%
Brett Lawrie 0.32 0.231 0.2980 -0.0670 1.31 13.50% 16.70% 16.70% 1.3 51.00% 80.40% 9.60%
Freddie Freeman 0.61 0.333 0.4006 -0.0676 0.77 34.30% 2.60% 15.40% 1.8 50.60% 80.40% 9.70%
Prince Fielder 1.1 0.25 0.3177 -0.0677 1.9 18.70% 10.00% 10.00% 1.5 44.80% 80.80% 8.10%
Josh Wilson 0.14 0.283 0.3523 -0.0693 1.41 22.60% 0.00% 0.00% 4.6 59.00% 79.70% 11.30%
Eric Young 0.45 0.296 0.3658 -0.0698 2.6 19.40% 0.00% 0.00% 9.7 43.40% 80.60% 8.30%
Zack Cozart 0.21 0.233 0.3041 -0.0711 1.24 18.70% 12.10% 3.00% 2 50.40% 88.40% 5.80%
Jose Reyes 0.8 0.179 0.2533 -0.0743 0.82 10.10% 11.80% 5.90% 6.8 43.30% 82.40% 7.40%
Wilin Rosario 0.38 0.243 0.3177 -0.0747 2.3 14.30% 5.00% 15.00% 0.9 55.60% 78.10% 12.00%
Michael Saunders 0.47 0.288 0.3657 -0.0777 1.05 28.10% 5.00% 5.00% 6.3 43.30% 82.20% 7.30%
Jhonny Peralta 0.54 0.233 0.3131 -0.0801 0.81 21.60% 11.90% 16.70% 0.8 50.80% 79.00% 10.50%
Pedro Alvarez 0.58 0.202 0.2830 -0.0810 1.05 11.30% 7.10% 19.00% 3.4 45.00% 73.20% 11.60%
David Freese 0.22 0.263 0.3476 -0.0846 1.76 20.30% 0.00% 11.80% 2.5 44.70% 75.50% 10.70%
Khris Davis 0.03 0.277 0.3625 -0.0855 1.17 23.50% 3.30% 13.30% 4.1 52.90% 67.80% 16.60%
Russell Martin 0.62 0.271 0.3570 -0.0860 2.42 18.00% 0.00% 16.70% 1.6 41.90% 74.00% 10.80%
Dan Uggla 0.19 0.239 0.3265 -0.0875 1 17.80% 6.70% 6.70% 1.4 47.80% 75.50% 11.50%
Adrian Beltre 0.64 0.286 0.3760 -0.0900 1.24 27.70% 0.00% 9.50% 2.5 46.00% 87.90% 5.90%
Brian Dozier 0.81 0.234 0.3241 -0.0901 0.89 17.80% 11.40% 18.20% 6.6 36.10% 84.10% 5.50%
Jordy Mercer 0.19 0.194 0.2842 -0.0902 2.14 8.30% 4.80% 0.00% 1.7 49.10% 81.10% 8.30%
J.B. Shuck 0.22 0.171 0.2630 -0.0920 1.91 8.60% 13.60% 9.10% 6 50.60% 93.90% 3.00%
Travis d’Arnaud 0.67 0.221 0.3131 -0.0921 1.11 18.60% 3.70% 7.40% 2.6 46.70% 85.60% 6.70%
David DeJesus 1.2 0.231 0.3237 -0.0927 1.3 22.10% 8.70% 13.00% 2.7 40.10% 89.00% 4.20%
Cody Asche 0.41 0.296 0.3904 -0.0944 1.8 26.30% 0.00% 20.00% 1 46.40% 78.00% 10.40%
Aramis Ramirez 0.47 0.24 0.3349 -0.0949 0.88 26.00% 4.90% 9.80% 2.3 55.00% 79.00% 11.30%
Alexi Amarista 0.53 0.203 0.2993 -0.0963 1.74 10.30% 5.30% 5.30% 6.3 45.60% 88.30% 5.30%
Corey Hart 0.36 0.232 0.3292 -0.0972 0.94 19.50% 2.80% 13.90% 2.6 50.10% 75.80% 11.80%
Eric Sogard 1.11 0.227 0.3317 -0.1047 1.09 23.80% 8.70% 0.00% 5.1 43.60% 91.10% 3.90%
Carlos Santana 0.93 0.151 0.2569 -0.1059 1.19 10.20% 13.90% 11.10% 2.7 34.90% 80.60% 6.70%
Elvis Andrus 0.78 0.252 0.3594 -0.1074 4.93 22.60% 6.70% 6.70% 5.8 38.00% 85.70% 5.10%
Jesus Guzman 0.14 0.267 0.3774 -0.1104 1.5 25.50% 7.10% 14.30% 2.9 43.10% 76.00% 9.10%
Allen Craig 0.32 0.225 0.3370 -0.1120 2.63 17.10% 4.20% 12.50% 2.6 44.80% 87.20% 5.70%
Raul Ibanez 0.32 0.177 0.2899 -0.1129 1.57 14.30% 14.30% 14.30% 3 45.10% 69.00% 13.90%
Mark Trumbo 0.23 0.192 0.3058 -0.1138 1.38 15.30% 14.30% 33.30% 1.6 49.00% 74.70% 12.10%
Ryan Raburn 0.29 0.224 0.3379 -0.1139 0.75 28.60% 5.00% 0.00% 1.1 46.30% 73.90% 10.90%
Jedd Gyorko 0.26 0.172 0.2892 -0.1172 1.33 14.40% 6.10% 9.10% 5 45.60% 72.90% 11.40%
Brad Miller 0.19 0.213 0.3322 -0.1192 0.97 18.70% 6.50% 9.70% 4.4 50.80% 75.30% 12.40%
Yonder Alonso 0.27 0.178 0.2980 -0.1200 1.13 17.80% 10.30% 0.00% 3.9 50.60% 86.20% 6.70%
Daniel Nava 0.35 0.167 0.2872 -0.1202 1.16 18.00% 21.10% 10.50% 4.3 39.40% 85.70% 5.50%
Mike Moustakas 0.45 0.141 0.2646 -0.1236 0.79 14.60% 10.30% 10.30% 0.7 46.60% 81.80% 8.00%
Chase Headley 0.3 0.229 0.3683 -0.1393 1.53 24.00% 0.00% 13.30% 3.1 44.90% 74.80% 11.20%
Ruben Tejada 0.67 0.246 0.3859 -0.1399 1.73 32.80% 0.00% 0.00% 0.4 43.40% 84.00% 6.70%
Nick Castellanos 0.19 0.253 0.3987 -0.1457 0.69 31.60% 0.00% 12.50% 1.1 59.60% 69.90% 17.40%
Pedro Florimon 0.39 0.149 0.3199 -0.1709 1.71 17.40% 0.00% 0.00% 9.8 42.70% 76.40% 10.00%

As you look at the above list and inflated BABIPs, keep in mind the following positive effects: HR/FB ratio; line drive, ground ball (with enough speed) and infield hit rates as well as infield fly ball rates (inverse). –Herbie Hancock

 

Follow Dano on Twitter @Rotobanter when he’s not selling meat popsicles to men with gout.

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Andre
Andre
8 years ago

What’s up everyone…

I’m a Fernandez owner in a 10team H2H keeper league, with 5 keepers. I’ve been offered two separate trades. 1) Dee Gordon for Homer Bailey; 2) Verlander and Crush Davis for Braun, Y. Ventura, and Dom Brown plus two draft picks. I’m not as concerned about the draft picks but is Davis going to be turning it around anytime? Does Davis for Braun seem fair? After this trade my squad would look like this:

C. Posey
1b. Davis
2b. Rendon
3b. Arenado
SS. Segura
Inf. Hosmer
Of. Craig, McCutchen, Heyward
UTL. A. Pagan, Gardner
Bn. Boegarts.

Sp. Verlander, Iwakuma, Bailey, Gallardo, Hammel, Santana, Archer, Kazmir, Ryu, Keuchel
RP. Soriano, Nathan, Robertson.
Dl. Fernandez

Thanks for the help!

BRGMets
BRGMets
8 years ago

Dano,

This was a great read, so glad I came across it–you have one more loyal reader and I am sending this to my co-gm.

This may be way too much info for a question about a trade offer I received, but—-i’m in a long term keeper where players cost you your draft pick for their current draft round the following year +3rounds (with the caveat you can only keep 2 of any guys drafted in Rounds 1-5 from previous year including 2 from round 1 if you choose the next year so there is a team with Miggy and Goldschmidt and they can keep them again nxt year).

7×7 H2H weekly Cats are – R, RBI, HR, SB, AVG, OBP, SLG, W, L, ERA, WHIP, K/9, Saves, QS.

Trade is: I give up: Votto (1st nxt year) and Werth (would cost a 4th so not really a keeper)

Receive: Prince (1st nxt year), Will Myers (9th nxt year), Carlos Santana (1/2 nxt year Not a keeper) and Joe Nathan (never would keep a closer)

My Team if it helps evaluate:

Buster Posey SF – C,1B; Joey Votto Cin – 1B; Ian Kinsler Det – 2B; Pedro Álvarez Pit – 3B José Reyes Tor – SS; Daniel Murphy NYM – 1B,2B; Austin Jackson Det – OF; Jayson Werth Was – OF; Evan Gattis Atl – C,OF; Leonys Martín Tex – OF; Howie Kendrick LAA – 2B; Emilio Bonifacio ChC – 2B,3B,OF; Coco Crisp Oak – OF

Aramis Ramírez Mil – 3B [DISABLED LIST]; Kole Calhoun LAA – OF [DISABLED LIST]; Jurickson Profar Tex – 2B,3B,SS [DISABLED LIST];

Starters – Aaron Harang Atl – SP; John Lackey Bos – SP; Yu Darvish Tex – SP; Zack Greinke LAD – SP; Jesse Chavez Oak – SP,RP; Chris Sale CWS – SP [DISABLED LIST];

Closers – Greg Holland KC – RP; Koji Uehara Bos – RP; Huston Street SD – RP; Cody Allen Cle – RP; Sean Doolittle Oak – RP

Mets
Mets
Reply to  BRGMets
8 years ago

Other offer was Votto for Hosmer & Sonny Gray same teams as above.

chisoxx22
chisoxx22
8 years ago

No I own marte. What about matt cain?

chisoxx22
chisoxx22
8 years ago

Santana and beltre have been less than expected should I hold or try to move one? My avg is horrendous but Marte contributes as well. Non keeper 8team roto 5×5

Dano
Reply to  chisoxx22
8 years ago

@chisoxx22: Starling marte is available? I’d pick him up but try to keep both Beltre and Santana at catcher.

subs81
subs81
8 years ago

bONIFACIO HAD HIS STREAK—SHOULD I DUMP HIM sTROMAN c Martinez OR k dAVIS WHO ARE ALL ON MY BENCH….

5X5 12 TEAM ESPN MIXED

subs81
subs81
Reply to  subs81
8 years ago

OOPS FOR wong WHO AS THEY SAY SHOULD BE UP SOON (PLAYING REGULARLY?)

Dano
Reply to  subs81
8 years ago

@subs81: I’d dump him for wong …might also be dumping Khris @ this point as well though…for Gregory polanco if somehow still there if this is a redraft league

Fish
Fish
8 years ago

I’m having a hard time deciding what to do with Justin Upton. I’ve been uncomfortably watching his BABIP knowing that a declines feels almost inevitable given that his contact rate has declined and his K% is up. However, the Rest-of-season Player Rater has him listed in the top 15 hitters for OBP Yahoo! leagues.

I’m not even sure what I should sell him for if I pursued that route.

Ryan
Ryan
8 years ago

Ubaldo or Taijuan Walker ROS? Keeper?

theguywholikesfantasybaseball
theguywholikesfantasybaseball
8 years ago

Wait??? Does this show that Abreu is going to get better? Please, tell me more….

My Minor Likes Female Pujols
My Minor Likes Female Pujols
8 years ago

Bought Prince for Harper and a closer when Harper got injured. Thought it was a steal since Prince surely would be awesome soon…. Now that I believe he isn’t going to get a lot better can you throw out a couple names you would sell him for so I can get a idea of which tier of guys to go after? Myers? Cespedes? Better? Worse?
Thanks! Good article!

Dano
Reply to  My Minor Likes Female Pujols
8 years ago

@My Minor Likes Female Pujols: keeper or Redraft? You can prob get better for the name alone. I’d still try to reach high…not sure id want cespedes back for him. Myers might make sense if its a keeper league, but again, you might be able to ask for more.

My Minor Likes Female Pujols
My Minor Likes Female Pujols
Reply to  dano
8 years ago

@dano: sorry, redraft league. Higher than cespedes and Myers hopefully? Cargo lite straight up would seem asking a bit too much I would think

jal179
jal179
8 years ago

I did it. I just did it….. I dealt Prince for Rizzo… what have I done? Robbery or regret come mid July??

Dano
Reply to  jal179
8 years ago

@jal179: I actually like the deal. Esp if it’s a keeper league. The hot air will help fielder a lot but still I’m worried about the balls in play & shift against him

Chris
Chris
8 years ago

Hello Dano,

need some help for this tempting trade H2H Mix:
My side:
Yu, Melancon and AJ Burnett
For:
Adam Jones, Wily Peralta and Dave Robertson

My team is:
Lucroy, Encarnacion, Pedroia, Andrus, Arenado, Stanton, Cespedes, Torii Hunter, Victorino (bn), Napoli (utl)
Yu, Verlander, Lee, Shields, Burnett, Gee, Hudson, Chavez, Duffy, Melancon and Rosenthal.

What do you think? Will my pitching suffer a lot. I would still have 3 very very good SP.

Thanks,

Dano
Reply to  Chris
8 years ago

@Chris: seems like you have enough OF. Yu is best player of deal

Callahan brake pads
Callahan brake pads
8 years ago

Worth it to try to flip fielder and t rosenthal for a guy like Cargo-lite?

Dano
Reply to  Callahan brake pads
8 years ago

@Callahan brake pads: I would offer that for sure.

Dano
Reply to  dano
8 years ago

@Chris: @dano: And awesome name …obviously

uncdrew
uncdrew
8 years ago

So I use the slightly less scientific method of:

“Blackman and Dozier aren’t on my team and I never really heard of them 5 months ago so surely they will crap out soon”

Is that valid?

Dano
Reply to  uncdrew
8 years ago

@uncdrew: I like them both more than most it seems…regress sure but both were 20/20 candidates for me preseason. I think they’re both for real.

Uncdrew
Uncdrew
Reply to  dano
8 years ago

@dano: darn

stonepie
stonepie
8 years ago

glad to see segura on the right side of the chart

fielder on the other hand is getting destroyed. i noticed the same problem with mccann.. pulling everything into the vacuum of a shift.

Dano
Reply to  stonepie
8 years ago

@stonepie: yea h exactly …moustakas Too…it will probably sustain or take luck to reverse

John E Depth
John E Depth
8 years ago

Thank you ObiWan…Hitting metrics are much harder for me to understand than pitching. I will keep watching Butler’s groundball rate and try to sell off Gordon. I will re-peruse your other articles as well. Appreciate your well thought out response.

Dano
Reply to  John E Depth
8 years ago

@John E Depth: thx. I concur w/ the approach!

john e depth
john e depth
8 years ago

This is my favorite segment on this site….That being said:
Sell Alex Gordon and Billy Butler low?

Wacha Wacha
Wacha Wacha
8 years ago

Everyone thinks Gyorko is going to bounce back… I think Im convinced. That being said do you like this trade in a 10 team h2h 5×5 cats league?

I give Y Ventura and Hosmer I get Scherzer and J Gyorko

Rags
Rags
8 years ago

Are park adjustments naturally built in to the secret sauce of xBABIP? Is there any reason to think that Coors specifically might result in higher BABIPs than expected?

Spammer Jay
Spammer Jay
Reply to  Dano
8 years ago

@Dano: it is a creepy beard ….

Dano
Reply to  Spammer Jay
8 years ago

@Spammer Jay: totally. X10

Cold Never Bother Sonny Gray
Cold Never Bother Sonny Gray
8 years ago

Wow thanks Im glad you expect Andrus and Reyes to improve… who do you like best ROS I IDesmond, Andrus, or Reyes?