With the top 80 starters for 2018 fantasy baseball, we are so close to the end of the rankings I can almost taste it! Wait, that’s not rankings I taste, I bit my lip and it’s blood. I wonder if when Dracula bites his lip it’s like when Cougs goes out with her friends and I’m left at home while Emmanuelle is on Cinemax. I’ll go over exactly how to draft starters in a few days, but there are so many ways to skin a cat we should have PETA breathing down our necks. Also, I’m hoping to do the RCL signups next Monday. Stay tuned! Or not, your call. All the 2018 fantasy baseball rankings are there. My tiers and projections are noted. Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2018 fantasy baseball:
61. Vince Velasquez – This tier started in the top 60 starters for 2018 fantasy baseball. This tier goes until Giolito. I called this tier, “Stunod or in a mirror it’s donuts.” VV, or as I like to call him W, will give you absolutely nothing this year — like 17 IP with a 5.00 ERA — or will give a 10 K/9 with 150 IP and be next level. This late in the game it’s worth the flyer. Plus, he plays in Philly, which is the home of the Flyers. He’s starting to sound can’t miss. 2018 Projections: 8-10/4.14/1.32/143 in 136 IP
62. Alex Reyes – Clevinger, Velasquez, Reyes, Lamet and Giolito could be a sub-tier called, “Pray you get 140 IP, expect 100 IP.” Reyes is returning from Tommy John surgery, or as they call it in Tommy John’s house, ‘my surgery.’ By the way, for Christmas, Cougs bought me a pair of Tommy John underwear, and I opened it and said, “You bought me arm surgery.” And we laughed, then I coughed and said, “No, really, this is what you bought me? I mean, I get the whole Jew thing celebrating Jesus’ b-day, but you bought me underwear? WTF?” The Cards are saying Reyes should be back by May 1st, which likely means at the earliest June 15th, then you consider he’s gonna be Rusty Griswold, and who knows what you’re going to get from him. However, I love the enormous upside — amormous? Hey, that’s not bad. 2018 Projections: 6-2/3.12/1.30/102 in 91 IP
63. Sean Manaea – I sorted all starters last year by ERA with at least 150 IP and Manaea was 49th overall. Unfortunately, only 33 starters had an ERA under 4.00 and Manaea’s ERA was 4.37. I mentioned this because I was looking at what I was projecting for starters through 60 or so starters, and I thought I was too high on ERA, projecting already guys in the 4.00’s, but apparently I’m being optimistic if we have another year like last year. For comparison’s sake, last year’s 64th ranked pitcher I projected to have a 3.83 ERA. Oh, and I saw this about Manaea on Rotoworld, “Manaea should build on this season’s experience and continue to become one of the game’s better pitchers in 2018.” He had a 4.37 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and an under-8 K/9 and over 3 BB/9 last year. He was much worse last year than in 2016. Become one of the game’s better pitchers? He had a 5.23 ERA in the 2nd half. I’d give that “one of the game’s better pitchers” line the eye roll it deserves, but I’m afraid I’ll pop a blood vessel. 2018 Projections: 11-11/4.11/1.35/152 in 177 IP
64. Lucas Giolito – I have a predilection for inexperienced hitters with a solid minor league track record, and less so for pitchers. I will also say I don’t 100% trust anyone that uses the word predilection in everyday conversation. They sound like they have a pedo-lection. Stretch a Home Depot slide ruler out 500 feet and talk to me from there. “What’s that? Having a hard time hearing you. No, don’t come within 500 feet of me. Thanks. Why? Because you used the word predilection.” Pitchers are just so flaky. Prefer to see a solid half season from a young pitcher in the majors before going crazy drafting them (I will pick them up off waivers; after the season starts, all bets are off for grabbing guys). With that said, I think Giolito is still a work in progress. Worth a flyer, but I wouldn’t go crazy. 2018 Projections: 7-12/4.23/1.37/159 in 176 IP
65. Garrett Richards – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Samardzija. I call this tier, “Shallow Grave.” Member that movie? Great flick, right? Yeah, indeed. These starters aren’t great. I call this tier, Shallow Grave, because I wanna make sure I’ve buried these guys sufficiently, i.e., I don’t want any part of them. As for Richards, he had a 2.28 ERA with a 8.8 K/9 last year. *trying to type with drool hanging from mouth* He only threw 27 2/3 IP, and I’d expect less than 100 this year. *wipes drool, smells wiped-up drool* Hey, why do guys feel the need to smell everything that comes out of their body? 2018 Projections: 5-3/3.61/1.22/87 in 95 IP
66. Cole Hamels – If I were doing a Life of Pi remake with major league players, I’d put F-Her and Hamels on a raft and push them out to sea. Though, this is coming from someone who only got three pages into the Life of Pi book and saw a commercial for the movie once, so, ya know, my reference odometer maybe broken. 2018 Projections: 12-10/4.27/1.32/144 in 189 IP
67. Julio Teheran – The Iron Sheik’s fantasy baseball rankings: Teheran, Trout, Curled Boots. That’s overall! “Teheran is #1, ptooey everyone who says otherwise.” Teheran entered his prime last year, yet he looked like the Braves wished they ordered Prime so they could just ship him somewhere for free. There’s obviously a chance for a bounce back, but there’s also a chance the girl who blinked at you was actually winking. 2018 Projections: 9-12/4.13/1.33/161 in 192 IP
68. Jeff Samardzija – He’s reliable in every category, except ERA. For ERA, label a dartboard with 3.00, 3.30, 3.75, 4.00, 4.25 or 4.75 ERA, blindfold yourself, then throw a dart. What that darts hits has as good an idea as anyone what Samard!&*%@%!^! will do this year. UPDATE: Out for a month with a pectoral strain. Apparently, pectoral strains are going around the majors. I blame millennials. They ruined pectorals, and the world. Sorry, guys, this shizz is on you. I’ve docked Samardzija a monthzija of projections. 2018 Projections: 9-10/4.34/1.18/152 in 161 IP
69. Aaron Sanchez – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Mikolas. I call this tier, “Dollar Store condoms.” By this tier name I mean, these guys are a mix of sorta safe, sorta cheap and worth a flyer. “Wow, I’ve seen lambskin condoms before, but I never knew they made hedgehog skin condoms.” That’s you going through the Dollar Store condom assortment. I used this tier name last year, but it made me laugh still, so I used it again. Shoot me (not you deranged white man). As for Sanchez, he was shut down with a blister on his finger after Rich Hill sneezed on him, then it was later revealed Sanchez had a finger ligament sprain, then, because all teams lie, the Jays said in October his blister was healed. Guys, you already told us it was a ligament sprain, not a blister. *scratches head, moves on* So, Sanchez will likely be fine to start the season, and, no foolsies, I actually like when pitchers are coming off none elbow/shoulder injuries and didn’t throw a ton of innings the previous year. Sanchez has been a 7.5 K/9 guy now for a few, and that doesn’t stoke my inner loins, but maybe there’s a reason to throw on the bearskin condom, especially if it helps avoid blisters. 2018 Projections: 8-10/3.90/1.29/130 in 154 IP
70. J.A. Happ – Was a little lost as to where to rank Happ. What the Happ? Yeah, I don’t know. I had him at one point in the David Price tier in the previous ranking post, then had in the next one in the top 100 starters. I see his past three years of ERAs: 3.61, 3.18, 3.53, and I’m a like, “Yo, the average ERA right now is around 7.35, so Happ’s kinda good.” He’s older (35), and doesn’t have the flashiest of stuff, and he’s in the AL East–Now you see why he ended up all the way down here with these blowfish skin condoms. 2018 Projections: 12-9/3.66/1.30/161 in 187 IP
71. Jake Odorizzi – Another name for this tier could be, “I like your peripherals, except the ratios that actually matter in my fantasy leagues, like ERA and WHIP.” Another name for Jake could be, “Jake How I Like My Eggs.” Another name for you could be, “Buddy Boy.” Now that we got that out of the way! I could cherrypick stats from the last three years to make this snakeskin condom appear to be a top 30 starter — 11.2% swinging strike percentage last year, 2.4 BB/9 in 2015, 9.3 K/9 in 2014. I know that’s a bit goofy — boofy? — but he’s only going to be 28 this year, and has a 3.40 ERA at home in his career. Odorizzi putting it altogether wouldn’t be the strangest thing to ever happen. Then again, if you watch CNN, there’s a new strangest thing to ever happen every day. I’m numb, y’all! UPDATE: Traded to the Twins. Twins ordered eggs Odorizzi, but all I see is:
I see no discernible change from Tampa to Minny. Odorizzi’s home ERA in his career was 3.40 in 384+ IP vs. 4.35 in away games, but it’s relatively standard for a guy to pitch better at home. Everyone’s better at home — you sleep in your own bed, you’re in front of your own fans, you’re able to make eggs into boobs at your favorite greasy-spoon diner. 2018 Projections: 9-12/3.98/1.22/139 in 152 IP
72. Tanner Roark – Tanner’s appropriate for the Dollar Store Condom tier because he sounds like a process used to turn animal hide into a Dollar Store condom. Oh my God, I just thought of something. Our Dollar Store condoms that use weird animal skins instead of things like lambskin, could be marketed as Animal Hides. “That tickles.” “Aw, shucks, baby, it’s just my deer hide.” “You dear hide’d your pickle?” “I sure did, Ms. Thing.” Okay, sounds like Fifty Shades of Grey now. Tanner puts up a Gio 2017 season would surprise you? Then, you need to toughen up, you’re surprised too easy. Any pitcher in the NL East could “Gio 2017” this year, especially one on the Nats. 2018 Projections: 14-9/4.09/1.31/155 in 177 IP
73. Rick Porcello – Bit of an aardvark-skinned condom here. The inside is smooth, but could hurt real bad if it breaks. Last year, it broke. His fastball went from a 13 runs above average to -14.7. El oh ouch. There’s hope if he moves away from using a two-seamer that wouldn’t even fool a baby chimp. And baby chimps are stupid! As they age, they grow into their intelligence. Sorry, Harambe! 2018 Projections: 13-11/4.12/1.27/175 in 195 IP
74. Miles Mikolas – Here’s what I said this offseason about Mikolas, “Signed with the Cardinals after having a 2.18 ERA with an 8 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 in 424 2/3 IP in Japan. When I heard this, I tweeted out something obnoxious like, “But what’s his speed score?!” Ya know, cause people are saying Ohtani has an 80 speed. What I’m also saying is if Ohtani is super overrated, Mikolas might actually be a bargain. If only he could also hit 30 HRs! Riiiiiiiight. Yes, seven I’s. The verdict, as they say, is still out on Mikolas, but I’ve seen him compared favorably to starters like Maeda, Hendricks and teammate, Wacha. Plus, it’s the Cardinals, they make mountains out of anything that takes the hill. For safety’s sake, I’ll put him around a 7.2 K/9 and a 2.4 BB/9 which is 2013 Jose Quintana, a 3.51 ERA/3.86 xFIP guy. I see now why Mikolas is Greek for “Me likey.” And that’s me quoting me! I also go over Mikolas in the video. I’m trying to maintain my better senses, but I’m really liking Mikolas this year. 2018 Projections: 11-4/3.64/1.23/115 in 144 IP
75. Brent Honeywell – As for Honeywell, I already gave you my Brent Honeywell fantasy. It was written trying to figure out who let Party Rock in the house. UPDATE: Tommy John surgery ended up on the Honey Do list for Honeywell. 2018 Projections: 7-2/3.55/1.17/110 in 102 IP
76. Jack Flaherty -This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 100 starters for 2018 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Imagine a St. Bernard with his head out the window, his name is Caution.” With this tier, I’m putting Caution to the wind, and just grabbing a late starter with some upside. Before you say, “Hey, uh, Grey, you’re giving better stats to guys lower in the rankings then ones above them, are you a mental patient?” First off, how do you define ‘mental patient?’ Second, there’s other factors baked into the rankings besides numbers. Risk, likelihood a player reaches his projections, potential, upside, downside–Okay, these things are all risk. As for Flaherty, know how you know (you let me down, thesaurus) when you have a good organization? When I’m ranking guys who have little chance of making the rotation. For what it’s Werth, Prospector Ralph listed Flaherty in his top 100 prospects for 2018 fantasy baseball. UPDATE: Made the rotation with the Wainwright injury, and Wainwright’s been Way-wrong for a few years now, so I’m all-in on Flaherty. 2018 Projections: 9-8/3.64/1.29/129 in 137 IP
77. Jimmy Nelson – Are you ready for this carousel of commenter questions, “The Brewers are saying Jimmy Nelson is going to be ready by April 15th…Woo-hoo!…Wait, now they’re saying May 5th — Cinco de Mayo! I’ll drink to that!…. Hmm, they say at the earliest the All-Star break. Should I drop him?” 2018 Projections: 5-3/3.55/1.29/86 in 82 IP
78. Mike Minor – When Minor signed with the Rangers this offseason, I didn’t project him because I wasn’t sure yet if he’d be in the rotation or bullpen. There’s still a *pinkie to mouth* Minor problem; I still don’t know. He’s been more valuable in recent seasons in the bullpen, but maybe not throwing many innings the last few years will do his arm some good back in the rotation. This late in drafts (and this is late, we’re around 300 overall) it’s worth a gamble. No relation to Rudy. 2018 Projections: 10-8/3.77/1.24/145 in 164 IP
79. Eduardo Rodriguez – Strikeouts are so insane right now that I looked at Eduardo Rodriguez’s 9.8 K/9 and thought I had an “in” to this blurb. I sorted all pitchers last year for K/9 expecting to see Eduardo Rodriguez near the top. Okay, at least top 5… Maybe top 7? Hmm… *runs finger down computer screen because I read with my finger* Top 10? Definitely top 15, right? I mean, a 9.8 K/9 is nothing to sneeze at unless you’re allergic to great K-rates. Dizzamn, Eduardo Rodriguez’s K/9 was only the 20th best K/9 last year? That is gizzoofy. Due to a rounding error, there were 29 pitchers last year with a 9+ K/9. There were 23 in 2016; 22 in 2015; in 2014, Eduardo Rodriguez’s K/9 would’ve been the 7th best in the majors. It’s almost like the Guatemalans, who are tightly sewing the baseballs without any oversight from Our Commissioner Manfred, are also causing the ball to dipsy and/or doodle away from hitters at exactly 59 feet. Or Rob Manfred is Etch-A-Sketch’ing baseballs into a circle curve at 59 feet or leaving meatballs for hitters to hit 440 feet. Not saying it’s happening, but it’s happening. Last year, Ed-Rod had six wins in 24 starts with a 4.19 ERA. Not the greatest ERA, but Trevor Bauer had a 4.19 ERA last year and 17 wins. If Rodriguez had 17 wins last year, he would’ve been a top 30 starter in 2017. So, why is he ranked way down here? Injured, might be out until June/July, you need to check his knee before drafting him. Boo, work for you to do! 2018 Projections: 7-3/3.84/1.26/105 in 98 IP
80. Sean Newcomb – Okay, yes, I’m going to be drafting a bunch of Braves starters this year, just to face the Mets and Marlins. Watch Newcomb and Faultytowerswitz give up all of Asdrubal’s homers this year. Likely outcome for Newcomb this year, some absolute dazzlers. Maybe a month or two of them. Then some uneven flophouse sweats, a drop or two to waivers, and next year he becomes all that and the vending machine unhooks two bags of Doritos for the price of one. (Full disclosure: I re-peeped Pitchspector Ralph’s Sean Newcomb pitching outlook from last year, and it got me pretty jazz-handed.) His command is all that’s holding him back right now, and that usually takes a couple of years to come around, which is based on no actual data. “Oh God, why did you mention my father?!” That’s you misreading ‘no actual data.’ 2018 Projections: 7-10/4.22/1.43/166 in 157 IP
To me, in the second half of the season, Clevinger made first strike improvements that allowed him to aggressively pitch to batters. His stuff was nasty, very hard to “square up” and was chased outside of the zone, resulting in a believable spike in Ks. I believe, perhaps with rose colored glasses, that if he can maintain his first k improvements, he’s a legit #2.
@Bbboston: Gotcha, but he still might not be in the rotation all year
@Grey: Gotcha, :-), but if he does win a position, approximately where would he ranked then?
I ranked him already
Hi Grey ,
what a wonderful and incredible SuperBall it was !
Nick Foles is now a Phoenix arising from the ashes of Wentz !!
btw: now that your 80’y ranked pitchers are here:
i need to adjust my starting Deck for 2018 KEEPER team:
please advise my 5 or 6 SP to choose from :
SP1 & SP2 : “Must-own” Severino and Archer
SP3: Salazar “with or without the prunes?”
SP4/5: Rich Hill / C.Morton “oldies but goodies”
SP6/7: Bundy / Chase Anderson “outsliders or upsiders”?
bubble : Maeda
dropping: Gio “No thank io” / Glasnow “or later” / Zach Davies (where is that guy ? no words about him after a 17-9 season!)
Nick the French Stick
@Nick: careful with Salazar, I wouldn’t touch him this year. Esp at SP3.
@Nick: An incredible SuperBall, indeed…. SP1 & SP2 : “Must-own” Severino and Archer
SP3: Salazar “with or without the prunes?”
SP4/5: Rich Hill / C.Morton “oldies but goodies” — Bundy
@Grey:
So before the draft my keeper team core would be:
infielders : Goldsmith / Altuve / Trea T / Gallo (1-2-3-SS)
outfielders: Springer / Myers
picthers: Severino / Archer / RHill / Morton / Salazar
relievers: KJansen
who would be the last 2 :
Encarnacion Util / 1B : risky vintage cortisone power #2017Bautista
Lamb Util / 3B : 30+HR
Merrifield OF3 /2B : 15HR/20+bags
Acuna OF3 : steal of 2019 draft
Ian “sexy” Happ Util / 2B : 30/10
Bundy SP6 : future upside
Allen RP2 : SAGNOF
with so much power in my starting team, i may take a “relative risk” on youngsters like Merri, Happ or Acuna , especially in 2nd half
and let old E5 go
Acuna, Merrifield
20 team hypothetically if you took 2 SP in the 3rd and 4th round, what round would you be looking to take your next SP?
@Caffeine can kill weed can’t.: Prolly around 120 overall
@Caffeine can kill weed can’t.: except for driving, weed much more likely to kill somebody from slow reaction times while driving (or i guess certain kinds of machinery this is true of too)
Which of these guys to round out my final keeper slot (1 yr): Dahl $3, Cozart $6, Scooter $7, Haniger $6, Moustacos $7, Zimm $6
Also worried about Conforto’s injury? Same keeper how many years for him: 1 yr $3, 2yrs $6, 3yrs $8 . Would’ve been a slam dunk 3 but that injury is a killer.
Cozart, unless Mouse goes to Yanks.
@Swfcdan: I’d just go with my overall rankings
@Grey: They aint out yet.
@Grey: And what about Conforto?
I go over him in the outfielders rankings
Juliet Miller is a Fox.
SG –Wow. Talk about laying down the Law. EM coming out party.
@Gigorilla: Who?
Juliet Miller from Shallow Grave played by Kerry Fox. Ewan McGregor is the Alex Law in his big screen breakout(age 23).
sorry about the shorthand.
Oh wow, deep track… I Googled the name and didn’t even see it…
Grey — you do have a very interesting and great site. I learn about more things than baseball here. Thanks.
Haha, no problem
“Will Ryu? That sounds like will.i.am’s cousin” – GOLD
@Peacecoast: Hehe
I’ve seen people as high as 29 on Richards. While I think that is cray cray, due to health, he is one of those guys that could shock if he sees a full season. I watched him sit 98-99 and touch 94 with his…slider.
@cabron: I’d be more inclined to go Jimmy Nelson over him
So, the league I have been fairly dominant in for last few years, I am finally running into salary constraints. Looking for advice from room on who to keep.
6×6 w/ OBP and Holds as extra categories. $260 Salary Cap, $4 inflation on players every year. Can keep up to 12 players
Listed below with 2018 prices:
Who I am Keeping
C- Sanchez $14
1B – Goldy $41
3B Arenado -$22
SP – Quintana -$14
Here’s who I need help deciding on if I should keep or let go:
1B – Rizzo $30 (no 2B eligibility)
1B- Votto $38
2B Dee Gordon $22
MI Gennett $22
SS Story $14
SP Darvish $19
SP Arrietta $22
RP Rivero $10
Thanks for the input.
@The Great Knoche: Not sure on # of teams, but prolly keep all except Scooter
@Grey: That would put me at $246 with 13 players to go. That’s a lot of Stars and Scrubs.
Yikes, that’s a bit much
@The Great Knoche: Lose Arrietta at least
Yes, missed Arrieta, him too
@Grey: 10 Team
That’s pretty shallow so you can get away with some form of stars and scrubs
Sanchez over all these fools. K rate should go up with his naughty skills and minor league stats. I get he missed all of last year but, at this point, all these guys have warts. And usually they are anal warts which I’ve heard are not pleasant. A friend of mine had them. Who am I kidding…it’s me. So much blistering…
@Justin: The pitcher or chef?
@Grey:
The chef
Raekwon?
@Grey:
Culinary skills out the wazoo
That would account for the blisters too
My insufferable $50 buy in 12 Team NSFB comment/update/questions…
C-
C-
1B-Hosmer
2B-Dee Gordon
3B-Arenado
SS- Lindor
OF- Puig, Acuna, Castellanos, Mancini, Mazara
CI- Rendon
MI-Tim Anderson
Util-
P- Verlander, Tanaka, Bauer, Pomeranz, Empty, Empty, Empty
RP- Osuna, Treinen
So for my Starting Lineup, I have 3 bats and 3 SPs left to fill before I look towards bench slots.
Gonna hit up a few SP if I can in the next couple rounds… Wacha/Taijuan/Snell/Corbin/Bundy still on the board at the moment and we are at Pick #200. My next pick will prob be Wacha at pick #212 if he is there (he should be). Starting to worry slightly about Saves, but oh well. My best bet left for more of them is prob a Rodney/Reed tandem if I can somehow lock down the MN bullpen but that prob won’t happen. Other RP left on the board right now are Britton, Ziegler/Bearclaw, Bedrosian, AJ Ramos, Gregerson/Lyons, Kintzler/Madson, Soria/Nate Jones. So I’ll see what I can do once I get the rest of my SP I think. Any constructive criticism or feedback?? Any thoughts on where I look light and things to consider when filling in the bench? Thanks guys.
@knucks: Wow. NFBC haha, my b
No worries, figured!
@knucks: If you use [email protected] as your email, you might be able to avoid the moderation every time… NFBC you mean? Draft and hold? Love the hitting, you need starters, starters and more starters
@Grey: Testing the new email strategy. Does using my other email cause more work? It seems like it’d be a pain in the ass for you and I dunno why that happens, started happening late last year for whatever reason. And yes draft and hold NFBC. Yea going starters next 3 rounds prolly. If I get two of those guys I listed I’ll be pretty psyched.
Doesn’t really cause more work but thought it might be frustrating for you to comment and it has to sit there until I moderate it — You know I love Wacha
@Grey: Didn’t work… just gonna continue with my other email I think, but lemme know if that starts to drive you nuts.
Yea I know that you know, that I know you love Wacha. As clearly evident by owning as many of your sleepers or guys you are higher on than the ADP as possible haha
Started this draft on 30JAN and project to finish around 20FEB. Interesting draft situation/setup. I like it. But it consumes a lot more time than it should, just due to my chronic rosterbation if nothing else.
It takes more than once for you to do it… One time to moderate, then each additional time it should work
@knucks: Draft like 5 Starters in a row. At Least.
@The Great Knoche: That’s now the plan, thanks knoche. Hopefully I can get at least 2 of those guys I mentioned I was targeting in the next 5 rounds. Will stick to 5 straight SP regardless. Appreciate this feedback.
great work as always! I’m really looking forward to your pitcher pairing post. I have no idea how i’m gunna navigate this mess ha
Ha, thanks!
another test comment
@knucks: nice man, it worked. Thanks brutha. Gonna see if I can update my gravatar without getting an actual Razz email.
Hmm, might be able to figure something out in that respect, let me know if you can’t get gravatar.com to work
@Grey: Yea it won’t work cause you need to do the linking of an email. Wondering if maybe I provide my actual email that I always use, if you can finagle the same thing as whatever you had to do with the @razzball.com account
Hmm… Try to use your real email that you always use for gravatar but add this razzball email maybe?
@Grey: Great idear, but no dice. Still forced me to go to the @razzball.com email inbox to click a link. Will just still with the other one prob and deal with the mod think I think.
How important is an avatar for you?
@Grey: Prob equally important to having to have my comments be approved. So its a push really. Not all that passionate one way or the other.
I can make it happen for you, I think… Give me a sec
Okay, knucks, go set up your gravatar using [email protected] and I will approve it
@Grey: When I try to login to Grav website using [email protected] it says to click the link in my email inbox. Is that what you mean that you’d do? Or should I be doing suttin else? My b. If this becomes a hassle please feel free to abandon ship.
@Grey: When i try to login to grav using [email protected] it says that I still need to click the activation link. Is that what you mean? My bad. If/When this gets to be too much of a hassle, please feel free to abandon ship.
@Grey: Tried logging in at Gravatar with the [email protected] email and its saying that I need to click a link that was emailed to me. Is that what you meant you were doing?
If this gets to be too much of a hassle, just abandon ship. Thanks for your help though!
I think I activated it, try again
Frank Voila!
@Grey: I sent an email to Gravatar support. Thanks for trying to activate it with the link. Think maybe we should give up? I’ll settle on using the [email protected] without a gravatar
I activated it
I think at least
i hope you don’t pay for Cinemax
No need, just think about Luis Castillo
@Grey: I want to hit the Razzball version of “like” for this comment. To make due I’ll just stare at my 4 SP keepers of Bauer $8, Castillo $7, Godley $2, Weaver $1.
Haha
@Grey:
What about Odor?
Don’t want to think about the odor being given off by actors on Cinemax
@Grey:
Smells like crushed dreams
Haha, so sad my emojis
Always amazed by the number of people (in addition to me) drinking in airport bars in the am.
You and I are on a lot of the same pitchers this year, Albright.
Doing some drafts on fantasy pros mock machine I’ve been liking the 15 slot. Votto and Machado at 15/16 is pretty appealing to me.
People complaining about how tough steals are. I think it’s a good opportunity to play for 4th place. Hamilton/Turner/Gordon teams will battle for top. 4 through 12 in the standings will be tight. A few steals without too much investment or compromising seem like the path.
It makes me shudder thinking about drinking in the AM, and not a good shudder like I need my hooch to get me going…. Votto/Machado would be solid at that point, I might go Machado/Bellinger there…Machado at 15 or 16 is insane… Should not be going that late.
That’s a great point about playing for 4th (if you don’t get Turner)…. How sweet would it be if one team drafted two of Hamilton, Turner and Gordon… Rudy and I were talking about how it would suck to draft Turner 4th then see Gordon sit around until pick 25-30…Ideally someone reaches for Gordon much earlier…
@Grey:
I’m a little worried about Bellinger this year. That long swing spooks me a little. I feel like there must be further exploitation of some holes. I owned him last year so I have love for him but I might take a year off and just tip my hat if he repeats.
Machado with. SS eligible a month in too. Love him at that price.
Bloody Mary is a great breakfast.
In a lot of mock drafts I’ve been taking Nola as SP1. Saw you’ve also been high on him
I feel like anyone who’s out on Bellinger is overthinking it… Simply look at what he did last year and his age… That’s not the start of a colossal failure, it’s the start of a HOF career… Yeah, Machado is nothing but goodness at that price, and I don’t even understand how people can be that low on him… *shudders at thought of Bloody Mary* I just can’t…. Nola as a #1 is what I’m talking about! Big Magoo on Friday was saying we’re crazy for not drafting a top 5 SP this year
@Grey: You might be right on Bellinger, but baby I just can’t fight this feeling.
I’m torn on SP value right now as I expect regression in league wide HRs but not positive and no idea how much.
I think with SPs, as I always think, you can’t get bogged down in league-wide adjustments… I blew competish out of water last year and didn’t change anything dramatic to my SP drafting strategy… Just hold for a bit and then dive in around 45-60
@Grey: oaktown, I don’t think Bellinger’s swing is long. He keeps his hands in pretty tight and gets the barrel through the zone quickly. It’s one of the most beautiful swings I’ve seen and it’s very fundamentally sound. I think the only thing that could possibly stop Cody this year is Cody. If he for some reason or another he loses a bunch of confidence but I don’t see that happening.
@Crime dog:
His GB rate went up and FB went down and his HRs went down second half. His heat map shows some signs of vulnerability on the inner half. Along with the reduction in power came a cut in the K rate and more of an oppo approach to try to deal with the way teams were trying to get him out. I feel like he prefers to get his arms more fully extended which adds to the length in order to generate the classic lefty low and away pull power. I think he’s still in the process of figuring that out. I like him long term no doubt so I am only talking about this year, but my spider sense tells me there is going to be a lot of adjustments. Staffs will be focused on making sure he’s not the guy who will beat you. For me this year I can see the numbers being a bit down with some periods of inconsistency. It’s not that I don’t like him, but for me the price is high enough to want more certainty.
@OaktownSteve:
All that said, I could be totally wrong.
@OaktownSteve: yeah I see your points Oaktown, his heat map does show some blue on the inner half. I’ve also seen him turn on some inside pitches and get those hands close to his body, so maybe it’s learning how to do that more. I find his game fascinating though, one of my favorites.
This goes back to a comment thread last week, but I play a 10 team h2h league 6×6 and I’m keeping pax, verlander, and chapman. Is it worth going all in on hitting and scrape by ratios and losses category for pitching by just drafting josh hader/archie bradley type guys? Maybe a dinelson type late then? We only get 5 adds a week so streaming starters is sometimes a little tough, which is the only backfire on this. Thoughts?
You still should draft another two starters
The problem with random investment tips is you likely already missed the wave and dont have any plan or price targets.
Bitcoin is so volatile but it seems the arrow is pointing straight down at the moment.
I think I’ve already lost my shirt on my investment — haha!
@Grey: crypto is a highly manipulated market and a joke imo.
Totally, that’s why it’s fun! Listen I didn’t bet a life savings… I also didn’t buy Bitcoin…I just used that for shorthand, I bought Ripple (XRP)
@Grey: im fimiliar. Yeah i head on the podcast you put in a couple bucks. The thing is all the smaller coins prices seem to follow bitcoin up or down just with more volatility.
Yeah completely, I like that Ripple can process payments quicker and banks are testing it out… and the people behind it… could be a sucker bet but I only bet as much as I was fine losing…
Love the reappearance of dollar store condoms.
I’d love to not rely on an aardvark skin condom in my 12 team H2H dynasty.
Who’s tier should I be targeting in a trade if I’m shopping Khris Davis? Paul Dejong?
Thanks as always.
Davis is a top 100 bat, so Castillo at worst… DeJong is around top 130, so Gausman
Gausman-ish, not necessarily him
@Grey:
Thanks. That’s solid guidance as I sort through who needs bats and responds to trade requests.
No problem
Blowfish skin condom!! Priceless.
I may need to get Mr. Happ on my team just so I can keep thinking of that line everytime I put him in the lineup.
Kinda makes me wish you would do a video dedicated only to the guys in this tier just to hear you say ‘blowfish condom’ and offer the graphics.
Haha, I should’ve thought of that!
@Grey: Lynn and Cobb are about the only guys from last year’s Condom Tier that did anything. Actually both exceeded to a small degree what you had them for. Quibbler Alert: an argument coud be made for Cobb goi ng back to back with Lynn again this year and being a Slice of Bread.
I’m a quibbler!
I could see Cobb being a bread bookmark, or both being odd-animal skin condoms
I like how we’re talking in complete gibberish but making total sense
@Grey: It’s an art.
Haha
When ranking SP’s, I assume that you would have factored in potential upside into the equation. Therefore, would your basic drafting advice be to take the pitchers in the order that you have them ranked and don’t try to determine if say #70 has great upside and take him over perhaps #60 who does not have nearly as much upside?
It is amazing how the ERA really climbs for the pitchers after say the top 40 or so.
Yeah, upside is factored in but it doesn’t mean there’s rotations that you can draft that are a mess with it’s too much upside… Like Trevor Bauer, Castillo, Gausman are all solid on their own, but as your 1st three starters? Very risky
@Grey: “Like Trevor Bauer, Castillo, Gausman are all solid on their own, but as your 1st three starters? Very risky”
Can you expand on what mean here? I ask as I have two of the three so I am wondering about the risk vs other pitchers. Thanks.
They’re young and risky… If you owned them last year, you know they’re not that safe…
@Grey: That’s what I figured. I need to draft some safety at the auction.
Jorge Soler…best shape of his life. Just wanted to get that first bsohl out there.
HA, and it’s only Feb 5th!
@Grey: and if bsohl isn’t enough, he’s working with Yonder’s launch angle guy in Miami. Oh the buzz.
Next thing you know Jorge Soler is going to marry Dwayne Murphy’s daughter
got a keeper question for ya, in a 12 team auction 6×6 catagories with OBP we get $300 each. which 6 would you keep. Altuve $40, Kershaw $45, Acuna $5, Sano $15, Michael A. Taylor $5, Luke Weaver $5, Freddie Freeman $47, and Carrasco $20.
thanks Grey, love the blogs and podcasts. keep up the good work my man.
Thanks! Altuve $40, Acuna $5, Sano $15, Luke Weaver $5, Freddie Freeman $47, and Carrasco $20.
My league is replacing Wins with Quality Starts, how much will this effect your pitching rankings?
I’ll obviously look at historical QS instead of wins, but they tend to be correlated right?
May be a dumb question but I’ve never done QS before.
Thanks Grey!
@Homer: I play in 2 leagues and both use QS over wins. I don’t think they correlate. QS can still be a little fluky just because ER can be but I think they are still less fluky than Wins. A good example is Chris Archer. Without looking, I think he typically has about 10 wins a year, at least recently. That is pretty below average for a SP1. He is usually near the top in QS though, typically getting 20ish each year.
There’s also less variance in QS. A bad pitcher on a good team can skank together 15 wins while a good pitcher on a bad team may only get 10 because a lot has to do with your offense. With QS, it takes the whole offense factor out. I personally like it.
@Crime Dog: That makes a lot of sense, thanks for the input.
QS makes top starters a bit more valuable, and guys like Ervin vs. guys like Castillo, safe and reliable vs. upsidey
@Grey: Got it, thanks
No problem
@Grey: Yo Grey I’ve always wanted to ask you what your favorite format is. I guess this is a good time to ask. (redraft/keeper etc., H2H/roto etc., number of teams, and categories.)
I like old school RCL format — 12 team, mixed, 5×5
Magoo loves Richards, I’m waiting on his arrival in a black cowboy hat
Black cat is bad luck, bad guys wear black, must’ve been a white guy who started that… It’s a reflex for me…
@Grey: dont over think it. Black hats look good and bad guys are suppose to look appealing
Gonna say it’s a case by case basis… Mario Batali in black, and black Crocs *shudders*
@Grey: He’s a ginger, there is very little they look good in
@Grey: Is gingers off limits?
They say a human soul weighs 24 grams, so what does a ginger’s soul weigh?
@Grey:
Organic ginger is 4.99/lb, if that helps
Wow, that makes Gingers more pricey than I thought!
Who you buying…Gallo or Lamb in an OBP league?
Gallo
Hey Grey,
Great job as always this year with your rankings!
I’m in a keeper h2h 12er. We keep 8 players. The cats are more offensive driven since there are 8 offensive cats and 6 pitching cats, one of which is saves. My keepers are:
SP – Sale
C – Sanchez
1B – Hoskins
SS – Segura
3B – Rendon
LF – Upton
CF – Yelich
RF – JD Martinez
I don’t have a pick until early in round 3, which is around pick 125 overall. Should I be worried about my starting pitching situation if I don’t draft my one until that time? It sounds like other managers are going pretty crazy with pitchers, keeping guys like Quintana, Weaver, Castilla, Cole, etc. Realistically I won’t be taking anyone from your top 40 list and will be relegated to your top 40 to 60 list as my # 2! I have been trying to swing a trade to get a solid SP # 2 but it hasn’t worked out so well and likely won’t.
Thanks in advance for your advice!
Brad
So you have no pitchers?
I have Chris Sale that I’m keeping after that wouldn’t get my SP2 until around 125th overall or [email protected]Grey:
Oh, I see him now… You should be okay to draft an SP around 125, someone like Castillo or Gausman’s tier
SOLER POWER
Soler is currently at ADP 479. Between now and the final drafts at the beginning of the season, I predict that Soler will end up one of the bigger, if not the biggest, ADP movers up. Keep in mind that he will not have an official reg season AB between now and then nor will his track record be change in any way. But…
He’s got a triple witching of narrative gold:
First, he’s in the best shape of his life
Second, he’s now a launch angle guy
Third, he’s a post-hype sleeper
All three of these narratives make for easy pickings among the fantasy pundit community.
On Feb 4 at 7 a.m. the Kansas City Star published this profile: http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansas-city-royals/article198285454.html
That put him on my radar. 36 hours later, NBC Sports put out a mocking bsohl article on Soler further raising his profile.
Fanrag sports ran a “Can Jorge Soler Silence The Doubters” piece earlier today.
Given that Soler began his offseason workouts a month earlier than is standard for MLBers, he may show up to spring training in a greater state of readiness, perhaps leading to good early spring results which would be a big ADP boost.
If you accept the premise that spring stats are useless and narrative predictions are bunk, then any run up in Soler ADP will be based on fuzzy, qualitative, narrative driven information. So I’m going to keep track of this. I’m gonna check in once a week here on razzball, update the prevalence of Soler mentions in the fantasy sphere, see if we can correlate that to an uptick in Soler’s NFBC adp and then follow into the season to see if the narrative did, in fact, have any apparent predictive powers.
I look forward to boring everybody periodically.
@OaktownSteve: we need an algorithm for post hype players….Steve!
Oh my God, I was just typing a comment saying the same thing!
He’s an interesting guy to me mostly bc of your third reason, the post-hype narrative. It’s just a hard thing to qualify, but I wonder what number of post-hype sleepers actually broke out vs. did nothing in the last five years, I wanna say less than 15%. It seems like the only time people remember post-hype is when they break out, so there’s a bias towards good results, when in reality, so many post-hype guys become nothing.
@Grey:
That’s that kind of thing that fangraphs does well. Put some quantification around it. Players who aggregate less than x WAR in y years after reaching top 20 consensus prospect status. Wouldn’t be hard to do.
I think what I find interesting here is more meta. The growth of the narrative and the impact on ADP and perception of value. What caught my eye is how many of those narrative boxes that got checked by that first KC Star story (so many of these stories do originate with the beat writers) almost immediately spawned Soler mentions from two outlets plus me in the comments here. I’m interested to see how many more mentions this generates between now and ST.
You could say that absent any narrative, Soler is a 479 ADP guy, so how much does this potentially impact ADP?
@OaktownSteve:
Another thing that is interesting here is that if you go back and look, there’s nothing that absolutely blows you away in Soler’s minor league numbers anyway, so right from the get go he’s a product of the scouting narrative. He’s now the ultimate qual vs quant guy.
It’s too bad with Soler that even best case scenario still only has him doing what? 25/.275/3?
@Grey:
I have no idea what the upside there is. On paper he looks like absolute garbage. There’s nothing quantitative to support drafting him except in very deep and only. That’s why I’m really interested to see if this narrative obtains and if so how big is the lift. If he had a gonzo spring you know the narrative builds and he gets in the top 250 in late season drafts.
250 is the cutoff for everyone bc that means he’s drafted in a 12 team mixed league… I don’t think it happens, at best, he is a hot pickup in April.
@Grey:
Most likely you’re right but I’m going to watch and see. As you know, I’m always interested in the psychological aspect of this game. It seems like a very interesting opportunity to study the impact of narrative on ADP as there is virtually no quant reason to draft him and at least 3 qual reasons.
@OaktownSteve: dammit Steve, say Hi already
@OaktownSteve: i’d add the fact that it’s the beat writers to a possible list of skeptics against these narratives being real. they could be real but beat writers by nature have nothing to write about and need to keep their readership up during offseason.
I have him ranked 439 overall… Oofa… I’m surprised he’s that low now that I step back to look at him… Then I step back further and see his previous years, that’s even worse, and the Royals lineup… I wonder how much of the Royals pushing Soler narrative is coming from the fact their 3 hole hitter is Alex Gordon.
@Grey:
That’s a really good point. Does somebody from the front office whisper to a KC reporter, “Hey you should check in on Soler?”
Haha, yeah, and go down that alleyway for some furs, Karen. Go ahead, the furs are beautiful.
@OaktownSteve: can’t use WAR for our purposes though, unless you manually remove the defensive parts.
Just found out the other league I’m in is going to this 3-2-1 contract format. At the end of each year you’ll designate a 3 keepers at those contract lengths. OPS instead of average and add in K’s for 6th CAT. I wanted to go with Rizzo round 1 and Lindor round 2…would you change your strategy here at all with the thought you’ll likely have to designate these first 2 picks at 3 and 2 years? Out of the below possibilities which one do you prefer? I think all of these combos I would very likely be able to get. I pick 11 out of 14.
Rizzo/Lindor
Machado/Lindor
Machado/Bellinger
Lindor/Bellinger
Or throw in something else you might like better based on who’s going around that area in the draft.
I love the Rizzo/Lindor combo this year because neither strikes out a bunch and both have good on base skills, they get a big bump in value in this format.
But Rizzo I think lacks the upside of some of those other guys over the next 3 or 4 years (designating after this season so you essentially get your 3 year player for 4 years)
Appreciate your thoughts!
Machado/Lindor or Rizzo/Lindor
@Grey: thinking this is because if I took bellinger I’d be letting him go during his age 25/26 season where he’d be entering his PRIME prime? where lindor/machado’s age timelines matchup better?
I’m not that concerned about that, I’m thinking best for this year, then we’ll tackle next year, next year
@Grey: Good point, I guess I was overthinking and my analysis was pointless haha. just stick with the original plan of planning for this year. Thanks Grey.
No problem
Speaking of post-hype, though the hype was never all that strong, probably be seeing one of my SPs of interest in the ranks here before too long. Joe Musgrove The Pirate looking very interesting to me.
By the way, just found Paul Spoorer has Soler on a post-hype sleeper list. Also, I saw Spoorer trying to make “The Dentist” happen.
Musgrove is interesting to me too, I just know that interest will be more related to NL-Only vs. mixed leagues
@Grey:
I’ll look at him in 15 mixed.
I’d take a 7th outfielder flyer on him in a 15 team MFBC league… You know they’ll let him play bc there’s no one there anymore
This is actually why I drafted Merrifield last year
I got another post-hype launch angle guy for you currently sitting at 505 nfbc adp. This guy is only post hype among prospect nerds though. Colin Moran…also in the Musgrove trade. Had a swing adjustment and a big FB% uptake. Should go into ST as the presumptive 3B in Pitt. Good look for anybody currently in an early season NFBC draft champs.
Don’t mind him either late (400 overall), bc once you get to a certain point, everyday ABs become paramount
If you invested in reyes and honeywell in NFBC (around pick 300), how many other starters total would you be looking for? I have 4 solid ones and those two prospects so far, and I am in round 24. I figure i want at least 10 guys who should get 150+ innings and i already have 4. Is 12 sp enough with reyes and honeywell in the group?