To paraphrase Tupac from Brenda’s Got a Baby, “I hear Grey’s got 2018 fantasy baseball rankings, but Grey’s barely got a brain.  A damn shame.  That guy can hardly spell his name.  GREY’S….GOT EM….RANKINGS!  Don’t you know he’s got ’em.  He wrote them solo, and he wrote them on his bathroom floor and didn’t know what to throw away and what to keep.  He crumbled these rankings up and threw them in a trash heap.   GREY’S….GOT EM….RANKINGS!  Don’t you know he’s got ’em.”  Don’t say I don’t keep my shizz socially conscious.  Or is it socially conscience?  Meh, doesn’t matter, I do it either way.  So, this top 60 starters has eleven pitchers I’m not crazy about, which is more than half the post, so, uh, yeah, I’ve seen a better group of pitchers.  Guess it’s to be expected after last year when the average ERA for a starter was, like, 6.45. As with previous rankings posts, my projections are included and where I see tiers starting and stopping.  Anyway, here’s the top 60 starters for 2018 fantasy baseball:

41. Danny Salazar – This tier started in the top 40 starters for 2018 fantasy baseball.  This tier goes until Cueto.  I called this tier, “Even Dave Matthews likes 4:44.”  I wanna love Salazar because of his 12.7 K/9 in 103 IP.  I can’t because he only threw 103 IP last year due to shoulder and elbow issues.  I’m pretty much expecting to get screwed by Salazar in the exact opposite manner that I’ve been screwed by him every other year.  Usually I’d own him and he’d be the number two I always dreamt of (after eating prunes).  This year, I won’t own him and he’ll be a number two without the prunes.  Revelation Alert!  What if for the first 1,000 years of human existence men sat to pee?  Then one day a man had terrible explosive diarrhea, and his wife was like, “You better clean that up,” and no one wants to clean the toilet, so instead he stood to pee and cleaned the crap with his urine.  Then, of course, he was so impressed with his ingenuity, he was like, “Oh my god, this is the best thing ever, I have to tell other men about it,” and before long everyone was standing to pee.  2018 Projections:  10-8/3.91/1.32/164 in 134 IP

42. Taijuan Walker – Going on three years now, I’ve been all-in on Walker.  This year, I’m taking a sabbatical.  It’s not Black Sabbath, it’s Latino Sabbath, and I’m off Taijuan.  Last year, he had a career high K/9 with 8.4, but his walk rate also ballooned up to 3.5.  He has never been able to stay on the field for more than 170 IP, and Chase Field is so bleh, fancy cigar box or not.  Finally, the percentage of pitches a batter swings at and missed with Walker has dropped to 8.6% and 27.4% on pitches outside the zone, which are poor rates, and make me think he’s fooling no one.  So, this year, my ulcer will not have a tag on it reading, “Made in Taijuan.”  2018 Projections:  10-12/3.94/1.35/155 in 171 IP

43. Jon Lester – The King of Saberhagenmetrics just came off one of his worst seasons to date, so, if everything we know about Saberhagenmetrics holds true, Lester’s in store for one of his best seasons.  Only problem with that is I can’t even justify drafting him due to Saberhagenmetrics, and I made up that facacta theory.  “I see you like Lester this year.”  “Oh, yes, Saberhagenmetrics says he’s going to be good.”  That’s a crazy person explaining drafting Lester this year.  2018 Projections:  12-10/3.94/1.28/177 in 183 IP

44. Johnny Cueto – Seriously, I could could go on for another five or six starters who I don’t like, but I wanna jump back into guys I’m interested in.  There will be more time for Herbs after the next tier or so.  Cueto is about the easiest guy to figure out.  For years, Cueto beat his xFIP by a lot — 2.82 ERA vs 3.23 xFIP — those types of years.  Then, this past year it caught up to him.  Know why?  Because he didn’t pray?  That’s your answer?  No, that’s not why.  Previously, he beat his predicted ERAs because he commanded his pitches so well, he made hitters make poor contact.  This past year, his command went to hell, hard contact went sky high, literally, he gave up a shizzton of homers.  He could fix his problems from last year, but I’m not risking it to see if he does.  2018 Projections:  10-11/3.81/1.24/165 in 188 IP

45. Jon Gray – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Bundy.  I call this tier, “Candice Huffine.”  For those that don’t know, Candice Huffine is a plus-sized model.  She’s kinda smoking hot.  Can we get her on the podcast?  I wanna just talk to her for an hour.  Grey’s got love for big girls.  Does it negate anything nice I could say by saying I have love for big girls?  P to the erhaps.  So, why name this tier Candice Huffine?  Because I’m looking at pitchers who may not be your standard definition of beauty, but I have love for them.  As for Gray, he’s kinda sexy.  Wait, does that ruin my new year’s resolution to no longer talk in third person?  Oh, Jon Gray!  Yes.  Him.  Resolution…Intact!  Nice work, Grey!  Damn!  Gray’s K/9 is going to be above 9, so there’s a chance here for wonderful.  How…ever, Coors.  I snapped my fingers during the ellipsis in however.  Still, at this price, I’m going in on Gray again.  Okay, now this is getting dirty with seven R’s.  2018 Projections:  12-9/3.88/1.27/181 in 174 IP

46. Blake Snell – I already gave you a Blake Snell sleeper.  It was written while writing a PhD dissertation on the similarities of West Side Story and the Beat It video.  2018 Projections:  13-9/3.68/1.30/185 in 183 IP

47. Chase Anderson – Confessional!  *aims camcorder at funky chair in front of funky wall, sits in chair*  Hey, so we just got home from DA CLUB, and Cassie has been bugging me all night.  I think we’re gonna need a roommate meeting.  Also, I didn’t expect to like Chase Anderson this year.  Steamer hates him, and, while I don’t listen to everything Steamer says, they are the best projections in the business, so it would be foolish to not at least–COULD YOU BE QUIET OUT THERE, I’M DOING MY CONFESSIONAL!  Sorry, Malliq got crazy drunk and is actin’ a fool.  Where was I?  Anderson!  Right!  Steamer projects him for 4.91 ERA.  Um, okay.  *mimes walking out of the room*  Don’t want that, right?  I hear ya, but his velocity went up by two miles per hour, and the changes look legit from when he was a 6.5 K/9 to a 8.5 K/9 guy.  Okay, I’m gonna go see if Malliq cleaned the dishes yet.  Peace.  2018 Projections:  13-9/3.71/1.14/152 in 171 IP

48. Jameson Taillon – Last year was a lost season for Taillon.  *slowly crosses legs, winces*  My general prediction for owning Taillon in 12-team leagues and shallower, a prediction not based on anything scientific, mind you.  I draft him, he struggles in April, I drop him, then stream him in May and June, then finally own him again in July for six weeks, until he flames out in September.  Damn, my predictions not based on anything are specific, huh?  2018 Projections:  10-7/3.51/1.29/141 in 152 IP

49. Patrick Corbin – Already gave you my Patrick Corbin sleeper.  It was written while being fitted for gold fronts. 2018 Projections:  15-11/3.58/1.29/186 in 204 IP

50. Dylan Bundy – At this point, I’m looking for reasons to draft some upside, so take these small sample sizes with a grain of salt, which technically is a small sample size.  In 65 IP, Bundy had the 24th best FIP in the 2nd half last year, the 23rd best K/9 (9.9) and the 27th best walk rate (2.3).  If he has a 9.9 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 over the course of this season, he’s going to be a top 15 starter next year.  Know how I keep saying I like pitchers in their third major league season?  Bundy’s about to enter it, and he’s only 25.  Not that long ago, he was a top prospect.  All Bundy needs to do is keep his homers down for a count of five, no problem there in the AL East.  2018 Projections:  10-12/3.77/1.24/181 in 197 IP

51. Lance Lynn – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Duffy.  I call this tier, “Slice of bread bookmark.”   Would a slice of bread work as a bookmark?  Sure.  Can you find better things to hold a page in a book?  I’d guess so.  That’s similar to these pitchers, because they could work fine as starters, but I think you can find better.  In deeper leagues or leagues with an innings category, these guys get a boost.   As for Lynn, I had the great fortune to own Lynn last year.  I just giggled thinking about writing that.  On the entire internet, when someone’s started a sentence, “I had the great fortune to…” I’m pretty sure the sentence ended with something of a bit more consequence than owning Lynn.  I had the great fortune to…dine with the Dalai Lama.  I had the great fortune to…discuss art with the MOMA chief curator.  I had the great fortune to…walk on the moon.  Nope, not me!  I was fortunate to own Lynn.  Will we be fortunate to own him again?  Not feeling it.  He was lucky last year with a .244 BABIP, the number of pitches batters swung at outside the zone dropped, and his walks were wild, man, wild.  UPDATE:  Signed with the Twins.  Solid real baseball move by the Twins to sign Lynn, but it doesn’t make him more enticing, due to his peripherals that were discussed in the above blurb.  Though, he will be trying to keep his BABIP in order again this year because he’ll be in another contract year.  Kidding!  Don’t buy the contract talk mumbo-slash-jumbo.  2018 Projections:  10-12/4.01/1.29/167 in 196 IP

52. Gio Gonzalez – Entering his contract year in 2018, which likely means nothing.  If it means anything, it means his biological clock was a year fast and he just had his last great season.  His fastball is now down below 90 MPH on average (from near-91 as recently as 2016), and his last year’s numbers of .258 BABIP and 81.6% LOB are kinda goofy.  It’s not exactly illuminating to just write off every pitcher over the age of 32 who was lucky last year, but who said I was illuminating?  What, I’m a nightlight?  2018 Projections: 11-11/4.08/1.30/171 in 184 IP

53. Michael Fulmer – A small peek into how I do the rankings.  I look at the top 120 starters (or any position) and their ADP.  I jot them down, then move them around on how I would draft them.  I then go through every team’s depth chart to make sure I haven’t missed anyone.  When I jot names down the first time, it gives me an idea of how others are drafting a player.  If I then move a guy way down, I know he’s being overrated.  With that said (here comes a point!), I moved Fulmer down almost 20 spots.  I have no idea why people are drafting him so high.  Last year, he had a 6.2 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 4.24 xFIP.  He throws hard (95 MPH), but who cares?  2018 Projections: 9-13/3.73/1.14/139 in 181 IP

54. Kenta Maeda – Member about 374 words ago (guesstimate!) when I said this tier was solid for innings?  Well, that’s aside from Maeda.  Masidea?  Oof, after that I should never be allowed to portmanteau again.  Nomanteau?  2018 Projections:  12-7/3.91/1.13/144 in 142 IP

55. Danny Duffy – I have strong feelings about all the guys in this tier, except Duffy.  I’m so meh on him, I couldn’t be more meh.  My cup runneth over with meh.  It’s that time of the month, and I got the mehses.  I’m eating a tuna salad sandwich on white bread with extra meh-o.  Hey, I just met you, and this is crazy, but here’s my number, so call me meh-be.  Duffy is the meh-or of Meh-berry.  Okay, I’m done.  2018 Projections:  10-12/3.76/1.25/149 in 172 IP

56. Jake Faria – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the top 80 starters for 2018 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Stunod or in a mirror it’s donuts.”  Stunod means stupid in Italian.  I know this, of course, because my grandfather, who is 90 years old, has called me or someone a stunod every day of my life.  I named this tier because we’re gonna look stupid drafting these guys, or we’re gonna look stupid smart with stupid being a superlative meaning ‘very.’  There’s a high probability that we draft someone from this tier, and drop them by April 10th.  That’s not to say they’ll be bad.  You might regret it, but you might not, and that’s why these guys are so risky.  I do love all their upside.  As for Faria, can the Rays save money by starting the year with him in the minors?  Because if they can, you better believe they will.  They are prolly in the process right now of painting their Evan Longoria bobbleheads’ face black and giving them away as Denard.  Rays’ President of Operations, “It’s not racist, it’s practical.”  2018 Projections:  9-6/3.71/1.20/152 in 149 IP

57. Jordan Montgomery – His SwStr% was 12.2%, which was 15th in the majors, right behind Severino, Greinke and Darvish.  In case SwStr% is foreign to you, the 1st 15 starters is an elite crop of pitchers.  If it is foreign to you, does your language have a lot of percent signs in the words?  Montgomery was 9th in the majors for swings generated outside the strike zone.  This is one of my favorite stats because if someone’s swinging out of the strike zone, they’re likely not generating great contact.  Shizz’s common sense.  His best pitches are the change and curve.  He threw both of them a lot.  Why is obvious.  His fastball is a piece of fake vomit you buy at Spencer’s Gifts that you get home to realize it’s real vomit.  He threw his fastball the 4th least number of times in the majors last year, because when hitters saw it, they were like, “Yo, I don’t even need to take steroids if he’s throwing that crap.”  If Montgomery fixes his fastball, he could be a top 20 starter.  My guess is he doesn’t fix it this year, and he’s more of the same last year, which is still totally usable.  2018 Projections:  12-7/3.86/1.28/154 in 168 IP

58. Trevor Williams – Already gave you my Trevor Williams sleeper.  It was written while Jameson Taillon was asking his doctor, “What’s the count?” 2018 Projections:  11-9/3.87/1.27/158 in 178 IP

59. Mike Clevinger – Another thing I do with my rankings, when I’m writing down all the names I plan on talking about, I jot down quick notes that I want to discuss when I come back to the players.  For Clevinger, I wrote, “Rotation spot?”  I still don’t know the answer to that pregunta.  Right now, the Indians have Josh Tomlin in their rotation, but they’d be better off with Lily Tomlin, so I have to guess they go with Clevinger, at least for 150 IP.  Now, if he were to get a 10.1 K/9 again like last year and 150 IP, I would’ve ranked him even higher, but, yeah, he could be the makings of a headache.  He’s a 4+ BB/9 guy, so if his K/9 drops to minor league levels of 8.5, Clevinger won’t just sound like a murderer, he will be one to your fantasy team.  The risk (not the board game) is worth it.  2018 Projections:  10-7/4.08/1.31/159 in 152 IP

60. Hyun-Jin Ryu – There’s quite a few guys in this tier who might not have a rotation job in April.  Will Ryu?  That sounds like will.i.am’s cousin.  “Yo, you hear the track that Will Ryu produced for the Gorillaz?  It’s got the boom bap.”  “No, will.i.am has the boom bap, Will Ryu has the boom crack of the bat.”  Instead of dance, Will Ryu’s tracks last year also made you walk.  His 3.2 BB/9 is way above his 1.7 BB/9 from 2014, and he’s going to be 31 this year, so I’m not sure there’s any going back — boom crack of the bat!  Though, Dodger Stadium, 8+ K/9 and a career 3.41 ERA still has me interested.  2018 Projections: 9-3/3.59/1.28/121 in 138 IP

 
  1. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    These category names are incredible.

    You think Ervin is doing what Ceuto has been re control and soft contact?

    Also, was the caveman pooping in his toiletless cave-home in the Salazar blurb? No wonder his wife was mad! Go find a bush outside!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Thanks! Maybe on Ervin, but I wouldn’t bank on that… re: Caveman — Haha — what? they didn’t have toilets? That’s even worse!

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Grey: Thanks to you, I’m now googling if toilets existed in the first 1000 years of human existence… not mad about it!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Common sense, man, they had to pee and/or poop somewhere!

          • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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            @Grey: I feel like they just dug a hole, no?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              A hole? That’s Pujols.

  2. Kutty says:
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    That’s a HUGE b!tch!

  3. Fungazi 2.0 says:
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    You stand to pee? Freak..

  4. Cram It says:
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    I’m in on Gray too. As an owner of him last year…take out his month of July and he has a 3.23/1.18. Also, he missed almost 2 months. His away ERA was lower than his home last 2 years. Basically he’s a guy that you can’t pin down yet but if there’s one pitcher that could make the top 60 leap into the top 20, I’ll take this horse.

    • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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      @Cram It: I like it

    • Crime Dog says:
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      @Cram It: I was looking at J Gray a couple months ago and was shocked at the fact he’s been better at home. How is that even possible being on the Rockies haha?

      • Crime Dog says:
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        @Crime Dog:

        I think I misread you Cram, you saying he’s better away than home? I think it’s the other way around right?

        • Cram It says:
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          @Crime Dog: Right, he’s been better at home.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Cram It: I’m glad we can be frustrated all year with him… I can’t wait for the agony!

      • Cram It says:
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        @Grey: Yup! Mets will tag him for 5 ER in Citi Field and then he shuts out the D-Backs in Coors.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          And it will be so infuriating!

  5. Justin says:
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    No AAron Sanchez? Cueto and Fulmer below Tijuana…pshhh.

    • Justin says:
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      Not that this is the only thing when comparing players but I often look at how well their pitch values look. Aaron Sanchez is coming off the mother of all blisters apparently but in 2016 he had great results on 3 pitches (FB, Curve, Change). Michael Fulmer had great results on 3 pitches as well (FB, Slider, Change).

      • Sweatpants Nation says:
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        @Justin: Fulmer’s projections are decent but low Ks puts him where he is.

        • Justin says:
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          @Sweatpants Nation:

          Let me regale you in the tale of James Paxton. He was born in a small town outside of…okay, long story short…dude has filthy stuff. Filthy like Grey’s mom. But his first few seasons in the bigs his K/9 rate was not matching the filth. What was wrong? I don’t know. But it caught up. In a big way. Bigly.

          Transport us back to Michael Fulmer. James Paxton’s life story applies. Not every part of it. But just the part that I briefly mentioned. You might say, small sample size. Fair point. But I live in the USA where we can choose our sample sizes. USA!! USA!!!

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @Justin: Sanchez is okay, but he needs to do some work before being close to safe

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Justin: Oh, man, you pshhh’d me!

      • Justin says:
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        @Grey:

        A respectful pshhh. Sidebar: what does Tom Brady fantasize about?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          A salami that mansplains?

  6. Fanciful Basesball says:
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    In a league that counts quality starts, I see these guys on the wire with exactly 6 ip, exactly 4.50 era, and 4 k per outing. *sigh* get in here, Ervin.

  7. Willy Mo says:
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    Like Faria hes available very late in mocks so far. If the Rays confrim hes in the rotation how much if any u move him up?

    Good info on Montgomery also.

    One thing that i alsmost posted yesterday was, Grey, im concerned for your ERA in 2018. The pitching really thins out here imo and we are only in the top 41-60.

    I think you are being too optimistic with a lot of the pitchers ERAs you are projecting. You only have 2 guys ranked in your top 60 with a projection of over a 4 era. Id have to go back and look but id bet i can find at least 10 pitchers prilly more that u ranked in the top 60 who had well over a 4 era last year, and some over 5. Gl fading the top starters. 2018 these pitchers are serving up the long ball. Quality pitching is top heavy and scarce imo.

    • Willy Mo says:
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      @Willy Mo:

      So you actually have 3 pitchers ranked in your top 60 with an ERA projection over 4: Samardzija, Gio, and Lynn. (Nobody had over a 5 era last year on the list i thought gausman did)

      Heres a list of all the players with over a 4 era from last season in your top 60

      Archer
      Quintana
      Bauer
      Tanaka
      Mccullers
      Wacha
      Gausman
      Cole
      Salazer
      Lester
      Cueto
      Snell
      Taillon
      Corbin
      Bundy
      Samardzija
      Maeda
      Trevor williams

      So 18 pitchers in the top 60 had over a 4 era last year while you project only 3 to have over a 4 era this year.

      I reiterate my point from above…. im worried about your era for 2018 if u plan on only drafting 1 or 2 starters from the back end of the top 20 post, and think your era projections for this year are too optimistic in todays HR happy MLB.

      • Cram It says:
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        @Willy Mo: These are your 4th/5th starters. If you draft 1 or 2 from the top 20 and 2 or 3 from top 40, then one of these guys ending up with a 4 ERA won’t kill you especially if you’re alternating spot starts with another guy from this group.

        • Malicious Phenoms says:
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          @Cram It:
          THIS is why Cram is the top fantasy owner on this site, year in and year out. Dude knows what’s up. I have been following Cram’s sound advice on here and won my league the last four years!

          THANK YOU, Cram!

          • Cram It says:
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            @Malicious Phenoms: Ha. MP! Talking fantasy baseball is the only thing that keeps me from being a full blown misanthrope.

            • Malicious Phenoms says:
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              @Cram It: I hear ya man. I live for this time of the year, the other 6 months of the year are useless to me..LOL

            • Cactus says:
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              @Cram It: Looking for a tid bit of pitching advice from the community. I recently took over for a decent team in an 8 team roto dynasty league. 6 X 6 OPS and QS are extra cats. I was 2 points away from dethroning the 4 year consecutive champ last year.

              My question is in my strategy. Last year I drafted one top 20 pitcher, DeGrom. Then I streamed or waiver wired literally everyone else. I felt like this was a solid strategy due to the size of the league. I am considering doing this again but wanted to get your thoughts. Oh and I also flipped DeGrom before he fell off for Springer.

            • Mordacious Levator says:
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              @Cram It: this is truer than anything else he’s been spotted saying.

        • Willy Mo says:
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          @Cram It: your not adressing my point.

          Of the top 60 ranked pitchers, 18 of them had over a 4 era last season. For Grey’s 2018 rankings only 3 of the top 60 are projected for over a 4 era (and just barely over 4 at that). That simply wont be the case.

          Im aware you dont need a team full of aces, but if you take into account grey doesnt drat from the top 10 or so pitchers usually, then you are playing with fire imo as 18 of the top 37 pitchers outside of the top 13 ranked had over a 4 era (none in the top 13 had over a 4 era last year)

          So if u dont take a SP until the top 13 are off the board, its basicly a coin flip if the pitcher you drafted had over a 4 era from last season.

          I get it, its not last season but again i think its really unlikely only 3 of the top 60 ranked will have over a 4 era as Grey is projecting. Last year it was 18 and homers / runs are on the rise.

          Good luck fading top starters in 2018!

          • Willy Mo says:
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            @Willy Mo: *drat=draft
            Typo

          • Willy Mo says:
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            @Willy Mo:

            Math correction

            18 of the top 47 pitchers ranked in the top 60 outside of the top 13 had over a 4 era last year, rougly 38%.

            • Willy Mo says:
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              @Willy Mo: i guess a better way to write that is outside of the top 13 pitchers ranked in the top 60, 18 of the remaining 47 had over a 4 era last season.

        • Willy Mo says:
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          @Cram It: Cram at least give me some credit for food for thought. Thats all im here for is idea sharing. You can disagree obv.

          • Cram It says:
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            @Willy Mo: I get it. If you look at last year, it’s not a pretty picture. I agree it’s probably unlikely that almost 60 SP’s have under a 4 ERA. That’s only happened twice in the last 7 years. But some guys will improve, or go back to being solid. What you call a coin-flip, I call identifying guys you like.

            • Willy Mo says:
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              @Cram It: im only saying this becasue i play in a 2oo and 3oo 12 team leagues and last year was the first time i missed the playeffs in both leagues since i started and it was becasue of my pitching. I waited too long and it was hard to navigate through the pirching minefield.

              I dont see pitching as all that deep. Sure theres a lot of them, but a lot of bad ones or gambles. If u wait for the top 13 sp or so to come off the board before taking ur sp1 i think theres a good chance u struggle with era. I dont see the hr trend reversing in 2018.

              • knucks says:
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                @Willy Mo: This pitching struggle last year was an issue for me as well. Don’t skimp and pay up to use Rudy’ tools if you haven’t already (I’m guessing you do). I only played in a free league last year and was skimping left and right in life to save for a wedding. That shizz is behind me, so no holds bar this year. Still waiting on pitching, but knowing that the Stream-O-nator has my back is nice cushion.

                Speaking of not saving money. Just booked a hotel for Center City Philly tomorrow night. Gonna bar hop and get bunky with Eagles fans. Should be interesting.

                • Willy Mo says:
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                  @knucks: nice. Yeah i should do that especially for daily. Im just stubborn. Love the eagles to win outright!

              • LenFuego says:
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                @Willy Mo: It is all about managing risk. If you are drafting pitchers earlier, then you are drafting hitters later.

                Sure, you are right that a fair number of these guys will probably end up with ERAs over 4. But it is also true that some of the middle round hitters that are projected for 20+ HRs or a .275 average will fall well short of that too. Grey’s pitching rankings, projections and recommendations are built around the idea that you are more likely to hit on a mid-to-late round pitcher than a mid-to-late round hitter, at least in part because it is easier to identify the pitchers than the hitters through statistic fundamentals.

                You may have had a bad experience with waiting on SP last year – that is going to happen sometimes. YMMV. (Not only may it vary, it *will* vary.) OTOH, my top SP last year was ranked about #25 going into last year, and I ended up finishing 2nd overall in pitching in my league (and it was not because of RP – my top drafted RPs were Familia and Edwin Diaz). Nothing is absolute, but waiting on SP can often pan out.

                • LenFuego says:
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                  @LenFuego: And one other point: Based on what went on last year, a 4.00 ERA is the new 3.50. Last year 4.00 would have finished 5th in my 12 team league. Having a pitcher or two in the 4s is not a death knell.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @Willy Mo: I don’t know the point, tbh… Are you saying I projected for too many guys under 4 ERA bc of last year or are you just saying these guys had ERAs over 4 last year as a matter of fact?

        • Willy Mo says:
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          @Grey: my point is ur being too optomistic with ur era projections.

          You only have 3 guys ranked in the top 60 who u project to have over a 4 era and even those 3 are just over a 4 era.

          I think its unlikely thats the case after 18 of the top 60 were over 4era last year, many near 4.5.

          So based on that, waiting on pitchers as long as u normally do in the draft, i think era will be an issue for your 2018 fantasy teams. Im sure i will be wrong. Gl

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            I’m being optimistic probably, but that doesn’t mean guys in the top 20 will suddenly be more reliable either, and guys like Jordan Montgomery won’t suddenly break out…

            • Disenfranchised says:
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              @Grey: I think Willy is being a little short sited. Sure last year pitching was rough; but it’s one year. I don’t know how much you are weighting previous years in your projections; but if I were running my own there would be some regression in HRs. Either way, everyone in your league will be dealing with the same pitching issues.

              Grey’s strategy is to get good hitting early because they’re a bit easier to project because there’s less injury risk to hitters and less luck involved with hitting categories vs Ws, ERA, and WHIP.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Yeah, agreed… Just draft hitters earlier because they’re safer, pitchers could be garbage overall, but later pitchers will break out like they do every year…

                • Disenfranchised says:
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                  @Grey: Yeah especially considering player pool for each position. You got 5 possible SPs from each team vs 1 player at each IF position per team and 3 Of per team.

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    Yeah totally

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Willy Mo: Faria’s not in the rotation? Pitching was scarce last year for ERA, I looked at ERAs from last year and how few were under 4.00

      • Willy Mo says:
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        @Grey: thought i read that in the post that he may start in the minors?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I haven’t heard anything, he’s the Rays 4th starter right now

    • Darek says:
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      @Willy Mo:

      Good discussion. I have been wondering if the new HR happy normal does increase the value of the predictable stud top pitchers. Probably, but I still think where they are going they are going too high for the reasons Grey gives. However, it depends on the price. I was in an RCL league with a bunch of card carrying Grey-ohiles who all eschewed starting pitching and got Kershaw in the mid 2nd, Kluber in the mid 4th and Verlander in the mid 6th. At those prices you have to jump. In a normal league where pitchers are going too early, I think you still have to target middle rounders you do think will be studs like Castillo or Weaver.

      • LenFuego says:
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        @Darek: Yeah, at some point if everybody is yinning, it can pay to yang, and certainly at some point stud SPs become a value if everyone is passing them over.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Don’t be yanging!

  8. Conine says:
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    I noticed the projection on Chase Anderson as well. What is up with that? Has to be some kind of error right? I get projecting him in the 4s but 4.9 is kind of crazy.

    Also love how no one can agree on the first names of Gurriel, Castellanos, Faria and Jake Junis. I have to keep editing the data in my spreadsheets to get my vlookups to work because every site/projections has them different.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Conine: Yeah, I’m not sure, but I have a line to Steamer so I can ask him…. Haha, I know on the 1st names, it’s like some are stretching their first names out…and then you have Yuli

  9. Sweatpants Nation says:
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    General question based on an observation. Is steamer always so conservative? I didn’t check everyone (that’s why you’re paid the big bucks) but I looked at quite a few and with nearly everyone they see pretty big regressions (maybe other than the top guys whom I didn’t look at) even though certain things like velocity, xFIP, BABIP, and SwgSt% don’t really change from last year. Do they just figure everybody was lucky?
    Looking at Steamer is down right depressing. Looking at Grey is my happy place.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Sweatpants Nation: Ha, yeah, overall conservative, but if you were to bet across the board that pitchers would be worse, you wouldn’t be wrong

  10. Peacecoast says:
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    crazy how we all expect such low innings pitched nowadays…why not just stock up on high inning MR and vulture wins with great ratios? Or is that becoming the new thing too?

    Fuck Salazar though man, seriously.

    I like Bundy a lot. Montgomery too maybe. Rode Faria for a great strecth last year. Too bad it’s the Rays.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Peacecoast: I like MRs, they’ll be ranked in the top 500… Smokey also covers them…

  11. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    Lester bounces back and Bundy takes the next step.

    I own five of the top 20 and one in the 20-40 and Lester and Bundy.

    The rest are garbage. I will draft high end middle relievers and stream.

    You want to win in fantasy baseball, you need to do the work, you to to know when to adjust. You can’t just read a bunch of rankings and expect to win.

    Cheers,

    MP

  12. Crime Dog says:
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    I think my biggest dilemma right now with the draft approaching is whether to go back in on Odor this year. Steamer likes him. I think I like his chances for a rebound. I think the thing that frustrates me the most about him, or maybe this was him pressing too hard last year, is the guy knows how to get on base, just not sure if he just chooses not to. He had 10 walks in September. He also had a year in the minor of like 150 plate appearances where he walked more than he K’d, so frustrating.

    Anyways, any help on this avatar? it shows up in my profile, I need Crime Dog’s big mug on display for the Razzball world to see.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Crime Dog: There’s nothing to not like with Odor except his AVG… He’s a 30/15 guy with either a .220 AVG or .260

      Did you go to gravatar.com and upload it?

      • Rum Ham says:
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        @Grey: I am also curious about the avatars. I uploaded one when I made a profile on the forum page a couple weeks back. It shows up when I sign in there but not when I comment on the main site.