The Rays pitching could be excellent this year. Chris Archer is due for a positive correction; Jacob Faria might take the next step; I’ve always liked Jake Odorizzi; Matt Andriese is underrated; Jose De Leon is ready, willing and maybe healthy; I’ve already told you why my Brent Honeywell fantasy includes heart emojis and unicorns, in that order; I can’t wait for Jose Mujica to be promoted just so I can say, “Mujica Eff Yeah!” and Nathan Eovaldi…Well, he’ll likely still be crap. Yet, the best one of those bunch could be Blake Snell. Last year in 129 1/3 IP, his record was 5-7/4.04/1.33/119. *turns computer upside down, turns head sideways, puts Instagram filter on stats, looks at stats in mirror* Okay, any way you look at those stats their not gorge. The 4.04 ERA is particularly vexing when you look at it in different ways because it’s a palindrome. However, the 911 strikeouts is no joke. Booooooooi!!! By the way, leave it to the Rays to keep Snell trapped in the minors for six years when he’s looked ready for the last four. If Snell were on the Tigers, he would likely be in his fifth major league season, on his 2nd major league team and would’ve won a Cy Young by now. So, what can we expect from Blake Snell for 2018 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Blake Snell’s K/9 last year was 8.3 with a 4.1 BB/9. Not the most awe-inducing stats, but wait there’s more! His xFIP was 4.56 and he actually had some luck with a .277 BABIP. Geez, this is going the wrong way. Let’s try to turn this puppy around before we’re at the pound giving the last rites to a Pomeranian.  Blake Snell did have a 1.83 ERA in Triple-A one year when he had some BABIP luck and a 3.29 ERA in Triple-A another year when he was unlucky, so there’s gotta be something, right? Yes, rhetorical question, that is right, it’s why we’re here for this post. In the minors, his K/9’s were regularly above 11. Now we’re talking sexy, as I say while breathing through my mouth. His walks, however, were pretty gnarly. Way over a 4 BB/9 at times, and even sniffing a 5 BB/9. Last year, his Ks came down but also his walks. It appears he tried to harness his control, and pitch more effectively. For a guy that throws 94 MPH on average, this is a good thing. Each pitch of his was more efficient in 2017 than it was in 2016. His 94 MPH fastball while dazzling isn’t even the “good night, God bless” pitch. His changeup was the 11th best in the majors, and, while his curve was ‘only’ the 35th best in the majors, is a lights out pitch too when he’s commanding it. He does not need to improve his command past a 4 BB/9 for him to be successful, but he just needs to hone his fastball’s command. Honing fastball command is like being handsome but just needing to shower. At some point, ya gotta figure, he’s gonna figure it out. Enter, the loofah. By the 2nd half last year, he appeared to have figured out he needs to shower. His 2nd half walk rate was 2.9, down from 5.9 in the 1st half and his ERA, of course followed from a 1st half 4.85 to a 2nd half ERA of 3.49. What happened? He repositioned himself on the mound. Frank Voila! Snell decided he needed to start facing towards the plate when pitching? Yeah, something like that. Supposedly, he also became more dedicated to workouts. He had the ability, and now is making it work for him. Funny, how the mid-20’s will do that to you. Netflix and chill to “maybe I get a job and chill on the weekends.” At 25 years of age and in his third major league season while primed for his first full year of innings, is about the best time to get in on him figuring it out. After 2018, he’s going to be a known top 20 starter and you’ll never get him cheap again. For 2018, I’ll give Blake Snell the projections of 13-9/3.68/1.30/185 in 183 IP with a chance for much more.
just a curiosity question—if you had third pick in a draft, who would you be targeting and would it make any difference if it was a keeper/dynasty vs a re draft?
thanks
It would make a difference how I drafted — Turner
@Grey: wow, treat urner is 3rd now, i’m assuming that’s in a dynasty (over goldy and such)
Yeah
Loving these sleeper posts, thanks Grey. Already getting excited for my Wacha – Snell rotation.
Loved your podcast with Ralph and was always a fan when you, he and Halp were together but what the hell is going on with you and Podcast hosts?! If i had any computer savvy I’d create a GIF of the North Korean soldier fleeing with Halp’s face on it as you chase. Loved Halp and will miss him but Ralph is a great replacement so excited for the season.
Can’t wait for the season, I think my favorite day of the year is the first time Streamonator populates matchups. Thanks for everything!
Thanks! Halp was out of my control, he needed to do more attorney work… The other ones I can get blamed for… Thanks, homey!
Heya Grey
How would you rank Snell, De Leon, Faria, and Honeywell based on potential upside?
Like which have the best chances for stardom let’s say within the next 3 years
Thx my dude
Honeywell, Snell
@Grey: snell’s taking the scherzer career path. once that stuff gets controlled it’s top 5 pitcher time.
Agreed
@Grey: Thoughts on Faria?
I’ll go over Faria in my rankings
Multi-grain Cheerio’s or Honey Nut?
Is it close?
Happy New Year G!
Can’t wait for the rankings to start, it’s either that or talk to the wife, so help me out buddy!
I hear that! I’m gonna do what I can!
almost caught up now, in the midst of my crazy deep, super F’ing early for no good goddamn reason 30 team draft. just read the e.rosario sleeper post, and since i have him for one more year at league minimum as he was somewhere around a 3rd round pick in this league 4 or whatever years ago gotta thank whoever was the prospector at the time. i believe that’s just before mike. either way, he used to have some speed, as a prospect and early in career anyway. certainly better than “dog balls” speed.
Haha, I think that was Stephen
Breathlessly awaiting the arrival of THE January Grey. This fellow is but an appetizer….
What am I, chopped liver?
@Grey: A GOOD appetizer. Like Spinach Dip.
But I crave the STEAK!!!!
I’m whetting the beak!
I think it might be Ian’s fault… but I’ve never been as big of a fan of Blake.
Maybe it’s the name Blake, I knew one in high school and he kinda sucked. Also, Bah-La-Kay keeps getting his name pronounced wrong. Also – Blake Griffen and Blake Lively have some talent, in very different ways, but their hype was short lived. Blake Bortles… well… that’s another feather in my “Blake hate cap” overall…
Anyway, Snell’s minor league numbers resemble another guy that I hate – Tyler Glasnow. BB/9 approaching 4-5, K/9 approaching 11. Similar hype and slow progression to the majors, however, I wouldn’t draft either (Glasnow doubled down with injuries also… but you get my point.)
I’d rather cyclopes with a monocle someone who has historical control and a good K rate than a guy that has plus pitches that he has yet to harness.
But if I must be taken back behind the hedges (see what I did there?), Blake’s 2.66 ERA and 3.1 BB/9 to nearly 13 K/9 numbers at Durham last year in 44 innings is more impressive than his Microsoft office credentials on his resume. Considering it was Durham, I’m sure Crash Davis tipped off a few of his pitches to teach Blake a lesson or two in humility also. So I don’t completely hate him as a lottery ticket.
What, no Blake Shelton? The sexiest man alive!
Too early to write off Snell with his stuff…Methinks…
Trade advice.
8 team keeper league.
Trade JD Martinez and Whit Merrifield for Dahl and Buxton
Nope
Hey Greyman!
Hope you had a bright Festival of Lights!!
Had quite the year in 2017. Placed 3rd in the 2nd year of our 20-Team Dynasty Head-to-Head league. Kind of teeth gnashing … had the best record in the league going into the playoffs – first seed, knocked out from getting to the finals … went right down to the wire … wasn’t decided until something like the 9th inning of the last game of the week.
20 Team, Dynasty, Keep 25, Draft 5. In-season +5 DL slots, + 5 NA slots. One of each hitting position plus OF, MI, CI, Utility and 6 Bench. 5 SP, 3 RP, 4 P. Head-to-head, weekly, win for the week (not by each category). 6×6 … BA, OBP, Runs, RBI, SB, XBH … … ERA, K/BB, WHIP, Ks, SV, Wins.
Posey (C, 1B); Austin Barnes (C, 2B)
Miggy (1B); Kendrys Morales (1B), Yuli Gurriel (1B)
Merrifield (2B, RF), Chris Taylor (2B, SS, LF, CF), Asdrubal Cabrera (2B, 3B, SS), Nick Gordon (2B?, SS?)
Kang (3B?, ??), Prado (3B), Longoria (3B)
Hunter Dozier (3B?, RF?), Dustin Fowler (LF?, CF?, RF?), Adam Eaton (CF), LoCain (CF), McCutch (CF, RF), Pirela (LF), Bader (CF), Fisher (LF, RF)
SP – Scherzer, Ervin Santana, Kyle Hendrix, JA Happ, Lynn, Ryu, Graveman, Jake Thompson, Shelby Miller, Matt Strahm, Gossett, Slegers, Henderson Alvarez, Grayson Long
SP/RP – Erasmo Ramirez
RP – Chad Green, AJ Ramos, Wade Davis
?? – AJ Puckett
Have to keep precisely 25 and cut the rest (14).
Clearly there will be some “wait and see” for spring training play and FA contract signings.
A) With Miggy, Morales and Gurriel qualifying at 1B only, and Posey with C/1B elibility, I’m feeling like I either need to drop one of the Mig/Mor/Gur trio (ugh) or hold all three and hope to trade one in the five days between roster freeze and draft day.
— Both options seem very problematic to me. Should I just bite the bullet and cut one? Which?
B) * I really like Bader and Fisher, but both are living in crowded outfield zones. I see Dustin Fowler, and (a little less so, Hunter Dozier) as has having good/very-good upsides and an honest shot at grabbing FT playing with a solid spring training.
* I really like Pirela, but it looks like he may only qualify for LF at the start of the season. I’m thin at LF, but I suspect there will be some decent LF talent in our draft pool. I’d like him a lot more if he IF/OF eligibility.
* I really like Shelby Miller, but he’s coming off surgery and he doesn’t have a stable track record of success yet. Similar feelings about Strahm. Hate to cut either, but … roster limit.
* I like Chad Green. Talk out of NYY is that they will give him a solid chance in spring training to be in the rotation. I’m a little dubious that he’d be more than a swing or SP5. Thing is, as a 2-pitch hurler, I think he may be more fantasy-valuable as an RP.
My Cut/Bubble list (14):
Hitting: Gordon, Kang, Prado, Dozier, Pirela, Bader, Fisher,
Pitching: Long, Slegers, Puckett, Gossett, Alvarez, Shelby Miller, Strahm
Suggestions re: Miggy / Morales / Gurriel?
Any recommendations re: who you might keep that is on my cut list and who would you drop instead?
Comments, suggestions really appreciated!
@Syllogism:
I gotta make these posts shorter. Ugh.
Happy new year! A. Yes B) Huh?
@Grey:
Sorry …. re B … that was pre-amble, basically my thinking around those players, leading to the real question coming from that …. “Any recommendations re: who you might keep that is on my cut list and who would you drop instead?”
How many can you keep from cut list?
@Grey:
Have to keep 25. My roster is 39:
Posey (C, 1B); Austin Barnes (C, 2B)
Miggy (1B); Kendrys Morales (1B), Yuli Gurriel (1B)
Merrifield (2B, RF), Chris Taylor (2B, SS, LF, CF), Asdrubal Cabrera (2B, 3B, SS), Nick Gordon (2B?, SS?)
Kang (3B?, ??), Prado (3B), Longoria (3B)
Hunter Dozier (3B?, RF?), Dustin Fowler (LF?, CF?, RF?), Adam Eaton (CF), LoCain (CF), McCutch (CF, RF), Pirela (LF), Bader (CF), Fisher (LF, RF)
The 14 that I’m thinking about cutting:
Hitting: Gordon, Kang, Prado, Dozier, Pirela, Bader, Fisher,
Pitching: Long, Slegers, Puckett, Gossett, Alvarez, Shelby Miller, Strahm
So … which (if any) of those 14 would you keep over the players not (yet) slated for dropping?
(And, of Morales, Miggy and Gurriel … which would you drop?)
Gordon, Kang, Prado, Long, Slegers, Dozier, Puckett, Gossett, Alvarez, Shelby Miller, Strahm, DUSTIN? Fowler — are automatics
Prolly Bader, Pirela over Gurriel, Dustin
hey grey I’m in a 12 team dynasty league 7×7 keep 20 draft 15. We lock our 20 keepers in a few weeks but before that are able to trade freely our entire roster. I currently have a couple extra keepers that i need to either package into deals or ship out for draft picks so I’m going to send my lineup and then the guys that i feel are expendable and i was hoping you can tell me which guys you would package or ship away for picks. Thank you!
1b : Rizzo
2b: jose ramirez
ss: Lindor
3b: Manny Machado
C: Gary Sanchez
OF: Betts
OF: JD Martinez
OF: Christian Yelich
UTIL: Nomar Mazara
UTIL: Billy Hamilton
Bn: Javier Baez
BN: Lewis Brinson
BN: Brendan Rodgers
BN: JP Crawford
BN: Fernando Tatis JR
SP: Chris sale
SP: Carslo Carrasco
SP: Carlos Martinez
SP: Marcus Stroman
SP: Sonny Gray
RP: Kimbrel
RP: Felipe Rivero
Given the I usually enter the year with no closers and figure it out,SAGNOF, i feel like rivero is expendable but i like entering the year with two top closers. Baez, Brinson, tatis, rodgers, crawford I all know are expendable because of my offense but am reluctant to trade any because its a dynasty league. I don’t mind trading hamilton either bc I’m just not a fan but could use the steals. Thanks again
What’s the question?
@Grey: You should NOT be able to trade non-kept players for draft picks. That’s essentially keeping more players because you’re getting value for them.
Your league is a joke.
@cmutimmah: you can trade among your whole roster until keepers are locked. a non keeper on my team may be a keeper on another team. At no point during the offseason does a roster have a different number of players and picks. If I move snell for a few picks let’s say i would also have to give back the number of picks and receive a player. Just bc it’s different does not mean it’s a joke. As a matter of fact it’s an expensive league that has a couple of MLB scouts in it.
@cmutimmah: One of the worst comments I’ve ever read here.
@Slappy Jack: whos was mine or his?
@Joe: slappy’s “worst comment” was directed at the troll here not your posts.
@Grey: the question was which of the extra keepers you would be first to deal. I have 22 guys I would like to keep but only room for 20 once we lock keepers in a few weeks
Grey I need a podcast!
When do you think we will get to hear your sweet laugh again?
OBP 12 team keeper forever.
I have to pick 8.
I really like Santana for next year but have to sacrifice someone.
Who would you pick?
Freeman
Altuve
Shaw
Trout
Cruz
Ozuna
D. Santana
Donaldson
Judge
Gregorius
deGrom
I’m hoping February for podcasts… Shaw, tough call
Grey – thoughts on Eric Thames and Jeff Hoffman in 2018? (not as a couple – Strictly Platonic)
I’ll be going over all players in my rankings in about ten days
@Grey: you wouldn’t make me hold out 10 days if I was a Make-a-Wish kid…
Are you?
@Grey: I am not, and I sure as hell hope that if Razzball has any actual Make-A-Wish readers, that they’ve got a bigger clock-running-out dream than making an off-season trade for Eric Thames
Haha, well, can’t begrudge them either if they just wanna make a trade of Thames.
I Snell a sleeper
*chortle*
No question — just had to get that off my chest ~
Haha
Rebuilding an old last-place team into a young, and hopefully better, team in a 12-team H2H keeper. I have Lindor, Bellinger, Hoskins, and Benintendi set as keepers. The league scores pitchers higher than hitters. Would you move Benintendi for Nola in order to start building a rotation? The former owner already traded away the 1st round pick in the draft, so not sure what type of pitching I’ll see if I wait for the draft. Thanks!
Sounds fair, I’d prolly try to get him cheaper tho
just saw mollys game—-thought it was very well done
shape of water, very interesting
florida project—possibly the worst ending to any movie i have ever seen
star wars–not really a star wars person, but the wife is–for me it was ok—more of the same to me
tv—this past weekend watched sneaky pete and Goliath—-both enjoyable to me
Nice! Yeah, agreed on those, Florida Project ending was a little like, ‘Wait, is that it? Did our DVD skipped?” You should watch Patriot on Amazon and Peaky Blinders on Netflix…
@Grey:
thanks, i will get to those, all your recommendations have been thumbs up from me
Hey, JF, I recommend you watch Peaky Blinders with subtitles on too… They’re tough to understand at times…
Hi Grey,
here is my Dynasty team right now, before draft
can make some adjustement or trades
just tell me who is no Worth keeping now:
C. Danny Jansen
1B. Abreu
2B. Schoop
3B. Rendon
SS. Lindor
OF1. JD
OF2K.Davis
OF3. A.Garcia
Ut. W.Merrifield
Bench: Buxton- Adam Jones- Y.Cespedes(IR)
W.Calhoun-Justin Turner-R.Acuna
SP1. Cole Hamels
Sp2. J.Cueto
SP3.R.Hill
RP1 Knebel
RP2. (empty sagnof !!!))
P. Tanaka
P. Chase Anderson
P. D. Lamet
Bench Honeywell
i’m leaning trading Tanaka + A Jones for Wacha (or B.Snell) +Margot?
is Buxton a star-to-be? or which Pitcher can i get for him? (DeGrom?)
is Danny Jansen Worth it in 2018 ?
thanks , and Happy New Year
Nick
I like Buxton, year… Danny Jansen? Who? I’d take Wacha (or Snell) + Margot…
@Grey:
so i’d keep Buxton and try to improve my pitchers for now
FYI
Danny Jansen: who ascended from High- to Triple-A during the 2017 season, finished the campaign with a .323/.400/.484 slash line over 104 total games.
Analysis: The catching prospect logged 31 games at High-A, 52 contests at Double-A and 21 affairs at Triple-A. Overall, he popped 10 home runs, notched 48 RBI and scored 50 times. Jansen’s jump through the ranks was obviously impressive, but the 22-year-old’s plate discipline (1.02 BB/K) was equally noteworthy. Toronto’s 16th-round selection in 2013 has thrust himself into a tight race with Max Pentecost for the Jays’ heir apparent to Russell Martin.
Oh, I thought you were autocorrecting Kenley… Haha… He doesn’t seem relevant in your league yet…
@Grey:
then i’d go Austin Barnes instead,,, awaiting the dodgers trade Grandal
Barnes would be better even without a Grandal trade
Which side do you like in a keep 7 12 team roto league?
$13 JDM (and not keeping $12 Devers) or $33 Kershaw + $14 Carrasco?
JDM and not even close, right?
Thanks!
JDM
@Grey: thanks
No problem
Merry bombcyclone day to all.
12 team keeper 6/6 (holds), does a rotation of Kluber Lang, Severino, Sonny G, Rich Hill, Louie Castillo and Snellivision have the proper mix of dominant/boring/delicious upside? See a weakness?
Merry bomb cyclone to you too! That sounds like a solid staff, plenty strong enough
Hola Amigo-
I am having issues deciding my last couple of keepers for next season and I only have a couple months left to decide…I play a 14 team H2H (6×7) league, where we can keep 12 each season (First season $0, $3 escalator per season) The first 10 guys are pretty much set in stone, but I’m unsure about the last couple:
$7 Thor
$7 Dozier
$4 Jo-Ram
$4 Bregman
$7 Trea Turner
$10 Cruz
$1 Bellinger
$1 Hoskins
$1 Calhoun
$4 Berrios
$4 T. Walker
$20 Keuchel
Some guys on the cusp are:
$1 Lamet
$1 Robles
$1 Kingery
$1 Hicks
Is there a Walker sleeper post coming, or have we seen enough from him after last season. I also keep flip-flopping on Keuchel as well. His price tag isn’t great, but there were not a ton of pitchers in the draft pool last year, and guys like Gausman were going for $30+ yikes! I would love another solid arm to pair with Thor, but I’m just not sure if DK can be that guy. Appreciate it sir…hope your holiday season was filled with joy ?
I need 4 keepers…h2h points league. No-brainers (I think) are Giancarlo, Rizzo, and Lindor. Now pick 1 from: Devers, Hoskins, Bregman (SS/MI-eligible).
Thanks!