Patrick Corbin will be only 28 years old for half of the 2018 season.  I know, surprised me too.  How did I know that would surprise you?  I read your mind, man.  What’s that?  You’re now thinking string cheese would make a good tampon for a mouse?  Hmm, all right, you shouldn’t share that with anyone.  What is that you are thinking now?  Why not take one McRib and make a McEve?  Okay, I think I’m going to stop reading your mind now.  Seriously *motions to your head*  things are going on up there we don’t need to talk about.  Last year, Patrick Corbin, or as a serial killer would call him Pat Rick Corbin, went 14-13/4.03/1.42/178, and I fell asleep in the middle of that stat line.  1.42 isn’t a WHIP it’s my college GPA.  Four-oh-three isn’t an ERA, it’s an ate-testant’s starting weight on The Biggest Loser.  178 isn’t strikeouts it’s–Actually that’s not bad.  As a male porn actor once said, it’s about time we went under the hood.  So, what can we expect from Patrick Corbin for 2018 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Everyone recovers from Tommy John surgery at different rates.  Tommy John, who wears Sean John, missed some of 1974 and the entire 1975 season, and set the precedent for recovery at about 18 months get back on the hill in the majors.  Patrick Corbin took about that long, but he did not look like himself in 2016.  The standard complaint of Tommy John recipients is Tommy John asks them for a nickel every time they mention his name.  Their 2nd biggest complaint is a lost of command.  Corbin had a 1.8 BB/9 the year before his surgery; he had a 3.8 BB/9 the year after.  Will he get back to a 1.8 BB/9 eventually?  I’m gonna guess no, but he did take a full walk off 2016’s walk rate and last year his BB/9 was 2.9.  He can easily shave another half walk off.  Another thing with Tommy John’ers is their velocity.  Corbin had a 92.4 MPH fastball the year before the surgery, 91.7 the year after, and 92.4 MPH in 2017.  See a pattern?  He’s getting his stuff back.  Why do we care?  Prior to the surgery, he had an ERA usually around 3.50, then it was 5.15 in 2016, and he shaved more than a run off that in 2017.  Oh, bee tee dubya, he had the 15th best ERA in the 2nd half last year with 3.26.  He’s getting back there, y’all!  Want another sign portending goodness?  Of course you do, because you’re greedy.  He controlled home runs allowed prior to his surgery, and since then his HR/9 has been inflated.  But, with better command coming back to him, this past 2nd half saw his home runs allowed get back to pre-surgery levels.  Corbin looks headed back to the pre-surgery levels of 8.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 with a mid-3 ERA and a solid number two for fantasy.  For 2018, I’ll give Patrick Corbin the projections of 15-11/3.58/1.29/186 in 204 IP with a chance for more.

102 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Baseball Fan
Baseball Fan
4 years ago

I use razzball religiously… can’t get a read on this offer. Would you move JD and Ohtani for Kershaw in a 12 team dynasty? Plenty of Power (Sanchez, Freeman, Goldy, Dozier, Upton, Calhoun, Puig) decent pitching (Greinke, Paxton, Luis Castillo, Honeywell, Price). Thanks for the help!!

Matt
Matt
4 years ago

Grey,

This is one of your stronger pieces from an argument-based, statistically-backed perspective. I’m buying in on your advice. Great work here.

However, you always end your scribblings by saying “with a chance for more.” … What about “a chance for less?” Is there a chance for less?

Woz
Woz
4 years ago

Which side do you want in a 16-team mixed league 8-player keeper (no salaries) 6×6 league:
A) Sale & Betts
B) deGrom & Stanton

Thanks!

sh
sh
4 years ago

Grey I need me some Corbin.
Who would you rather have in a dynasty 20 team points league. Jorge Polanco or Kepler

Tedy
Tedy
4 years ago

Keeper league….I need to pick between brad peacock and jimmy Nelson. Leaning Nelson. Which one would you keep?

Thanks

Gigorilla
Gigorilla
4 years ago

Hi Grey–curious as to your thoughts about your cousin on the Rockies. Could he become a top 20 pitcher this year?

Winteriscoming
Winteriscoming
4 years ago

Hey Grey I know it’s still early but how are you feeling about moncada at this point? Thinking he’s going to be decent enough to keep or is that one prospect to move on from? So torn if him or acuna would be worth it

Winteriscoming
Winteriscoming
Reply to  Grey
4 years ago

@Grey: I’ve been trying to keep a close eye on him as well once Atlanta got rid of kemp I thought that could potentially bode well for him but who knows – I hope something happens to make a decision easier between now and draft day because picking 5 (keeper rounds aside) out of bellinger Hoskins joRam Olson acuna moncada sano carrasco cmart ray lindor rizzo is so hard I’ll definitely be asking you guys the same thing in a couple months lol

JR
JR
4 years ago

I picked up Corbin late last year as a flier in a 10 team h2h keeper league so I’m glad to see him as one of your sleepers this year!

My keeper league categories are a bit wonky. For hitters we have HR, BB, Total Bases, OBP, SLG, and net steals.
For pitchers we have QS, ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, and net saves.

With these categories, would you go about valuing players any differently than your rankings? I know the high walk/obp guys get a big lift, but what about pitchers? Would you suggest going after more high caliber starting pitchers? Thanks!

JR
JR
Reply to  JR
4 years ago

@JR: there’s a 50 inning minimum each week too, so you need a decent amount of starters to get there

JR
JR
Reply to  Grey
4 years ago

@Grey: thanks Grey! My pitching is extremely strong, but I’m trying to decide how much to trade away to strengthen my hitting.

One deal on the table is my Quintana for his Sano. I know your rankings come out soon, but hoping to move on it soon.

Ian
Ian
4 years ago

Thanks for your work. Keeper forever league with basic format.I keep climbing closer to the top simply by religiously following your advice.
I’ve kept Thor Paxton Kluber and Kenley J. Wondering if I should sell Thor or Paxton (or) just accept innings restrictions and work with 7 or 8 SP. Thanx for any advice.

Bostero111
Bostero111
4 years ago

Hey Grey!

Hope you’re doing well.

I have some keeper questions as this is my first year picking keepers in our 12 team h2h 6×5 league.

Hitting Categories are: Runs, Hits, HRs, RBIs, OBP, and SBs
Pitching Categories are: Ws, SVs, Ks, ERA, WHIP

We must keep a minimum of 3 players and a max of 5 players. Can keep players for up to 3 years.

I’m pretty set on keeping the following:

Goldy – Round 1
Archer – Round 3 (I don’t feel good about keeping Archer in such a high round but he’s the only top 20ish pitcher I got)
Rendon – Round 5

The only other keepable players I’m looking at are Buxton and Alex Wood. I can keep Buxton at Round 10 or Alex Wood at Round 10. I could also keep both so Buxton at Round 9 and Alex Wood at Round 10 or vice versa (Wood at Round 9 and Buxton at Round 10).

Do I keep both Alex Wood and Buxton at these rounds? Do I just keep one and if so which one? Or do I keep neither and just stick with the 3 keepers mentioned (Goldy, Archer, Rendon)?

Thanks in advance!

Bostero111
Bostero111
Reply to  Grey
4 years ago

@Grey:

Thanks man! Looking forward to the rankings next week!

Fungazi
Fungazi
4 years ago

In a 7 x7 12 team league with 6 keepers forever, I have 6 solid offensive players and wondering if you’d keep Houston Gerrit Cole over any of the 3 bottom ones so I at least have 1 SP in the first 6ish rounds? The extra two pitching cats are QS and L.

Hoskins, Benintendi, Bregman..

Thanks Grey

zombie
4 years ago

Greetings and good tidings, January Grey. Sleepers have been particularly enticing this off season. Can hardly wait to see how they stack up next week! Highlighted too many that I thought were further under the radar/valued. Stop reading my mind indeed! 33 days to pitchers & catchers! Bring on the rankings!

TroutWars
TroutWars
4 years ago

What are your thoughts on Samardzija for 2018? His peripherals look gorgeous. He had 200+ Ks a 3/1 strikeout to walk ratio. WHIP under 1.15. Pitches in a good park. It seems like his ERA really is not indicative of what is there. At first I thought it was because is HR were through the roof but he gave up 30 bombs, which is a lot, but guys around him gave up similar. Ervin Santana gave up 31, Darvish 27, DeGrom 28, Greinke 25…Possible sleeper?

TroutWars
TroutWars
4 years ago

I like this one. Corbin does seem like he can have a good year. Also a left in the NL west seems like he could do really well.

Have you seen Ozark yet? Just finished it…shiz-wow.

TroutWars
TroutWars
Reply to  Grey
4 years ago

@Grey: He was masterful. Dare I say it. He was Master Bateman…

FishKid
FishKid
Reply to  Grey
4 years ago

@Grey: Just my 2 cents, but why do I think he ends up taking over for the preacher as the perfect way to launder money?

Huffin Gas
Huffin Gas
4 years ago

It’s mid week already. So close to rankings. I’m so jizzed I brought a fifth of whiskey with me to work today because I just can’t handle. It’s also the same day we have anti sexy time training.

Nightpandas
Nightpandas
4 years ago

Grey,

Hoskins and Betances too much to give up for Mike Fulmer, Cast and Puig/Gallo

15 team keep 11 obp and k/9

FishKid
FishKid
4 years ago

Grey, great commentary as always. So nice to see real(?) fantasy baseball talk back again via Razzball. Thank you sir, may I have another?
9 team NL only can keep up to 11. Have the following: JD Martinez 15 (if he stays NL), Myers 17, Peraza 5, Rendon 21, Story 9, Margot 5, N Williams 5 (if he starts), Holland 14 (if he stays NL), CMart 7, Taillon 5, Weaver 1 – that’s 11.
Also have Harper 44, Wacha 12, D’arnaud 2, Drury 5, Reyes 7
Would you sub any of the alsos for my current keepers, and who moves up if I lose JD or Holland? Thanks again!
PS Goliath on Amazon (BillyBob), Happy on SyFy (show is crazy) and glad to see you came around on Peaky with the close captioning ;-)

FishKid
FishKid
Reply to  Grey
4 years ago

@Grey:
You’ll finally be able to understand what the hell SamNeill was saying! Also, if you get Skinemax, Banshee was friggin’ awesome. some of the best fight (and sex) scenes ever, and 2 of the fights are man vs woman – one in a swimming pool, and one that STARTS with a guy taking a thrown hatchet to the chest. Enjoy!

FishKid
FishKid
Reply to  Grey
4 years ago

@Grey: I saw that! With sheep named Angelica Huston and Susan Sarandon, and a cow named Helena Bonham Carter. Weird.

FishKid
FishKid
Reply to  Grey
4 years ago

@Grey: Yeah, Sarandon was pretty hot in Bull Durham, but she’s no Dixie Lee Boxx.

Man Of Steel
Man Of Steel
4 years ago

Great stuff as always. Will you be doing anything on category targets for 15 NFBC slow drafts this year? I found some of your older stuff on this and it helps a ton. Thanks!

Man Of Steel
Man Of Steel
Reply to  Grey
4 years ago

@Grey: Awesome thanks!

Man Of Steel
Man Of Steel
Reply to  Grey
4 years ago

@Grey: Just did a 15 team NFBC auction on Sunday. Stars were going for major dollars so I came away with a team I was not expecting. I had lots of $20 type players but Votto was my only $30 per player ($37). Lots of guys went in the $40+ range including the top 4 SP’s.
C Vazquez
C Vogt
1B Votto
2B Murphy
SS Andrus
3B Rendon
CI Abreu
MI J. Polanco
UT Zimmerman
OF Eaton
OF Inciarte
OF Dickerson
OF Deshileds
OF Reddick

SP Keuchel
SP Hendricks
SP Price
SP Gio G.
SP Ryu
SP Estrada
CL Doolittle
CL Melancon
CL Vizciano

Seems light on power but I do love my infield. Thoughts?

Man Of Steel
Man Of Steel
Reply to  Grey
4 years ago

@Grey: I am not thrilled with them either it was a rough auction with the high prices of SP’s. Thanks!

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
4 years ago

Grey,

Quick question. Would you rather have Eric Thames or Matt Kemp? I am concerned about the high K’s that Thames gives, But I dont know where Kemp will land if anywhere. Maybe an AL team so he can DH. Please advise.

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
4 years ago

Regardless of where he lands, if anywhere?

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
4 years ago

Would you trade Carlos Carrasco to get J-UP?

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
4 years ago

Grey my staff is stacked:

Madison Bumgarner (SF)
Carlos Carrasco (CLE)
Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
Jon Lester (CHC)
Charlie Morton (HOU)
Shohei Otani (LAA)
Robbie Ray (ARI)
Max Scherzer (WAS)
Noah Syndergaard (NYM)
Luis Severino (NYY)
Justin Verlander (HOU)

Still make the deal?

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
4 years ago

or do you think I can do better than J-Up

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
Reply to  Grey
4 years ago

so far no one else wants Carrasco. The best deal on the table is Carrasco for J-up. My OF looks like this:

Bellinger (1B also)
Blackmon
Braun
Gennett (2B,3B also)
McCutchen
Ozuna
Trout

Do you think I need to make that deal?

Does it smell Grey in here, or is it just me?
Does it smell Grey in here, or is it just me?
4 years ago

I dunno. He kind of feels like one of those guys I’d rather let someone else take the risk on. If I have to pat them on the back so making the right choice, so be it.

Question: Do you think Aaron Judge will take a significant hit to his OBP as a result of batting around Stanton? I’m in a league with a BB category, and I’m worried about regression in that category.

Thanks Grey. You’re one of my secrets to success!

Roger Podacter
Roger Podacter
4 years ago

I’ll draft him when he legally changes it to Patrick Korben Dallas Multipass

Great write up G-stash. Some very good points in here – I think he’ll be a steal.

Hanklongball
Hanklongball
4 years ago

Grey,

Thanks for the great tips, as always! I’d love your take on how to tackle the first turn in my 2018 league; it’s a Yahoo 5×5 with 12 teams and three keepers (I have Harper, Betts, Rizzo) and I have the 11th pick.

The best SP not kept are Carrasco, Verlander, Darvish, etc. and the best bats would be Sanchez, Marte, Bregman, Miggy, etc.

What would you do with those keepers and the 11th/14th pick? If those SP are free, do you need to grab one or do you load up on offense?

If you load up on offense, which two do you take of Marte, Miggy, Bregman, Upton, Sanchez, Gordon, Segura?

Thanks as always for the great advice!

Curious George Springer
Curious George Springer
4 years ago

Well, hello there, Mr. Corbin. I was all over Corbin early in his career, so I look forward to drafting him and watching his failure to return to form up close. A bit of a lengthy question coming, so my apologies in advance.

My ten team keeper (forever with no inflation) league will be expanding to 12 teams this year, which means EXPANSION DRAFT QUESTION!! In the expansion draft:

1. Every team is allowed to protect 4 players at the beginning
2. If a player is selected from your roster, you get to protect an additional player.
3. Only three players can be selected from any one roster.

I’m definitely protecting Trout (rd 19), Freeman (rd 13), and Springer (rd 14).

My final one is a bit tricky. Here are the players I planned to keep:
Darvish (rd 25)
C-Mart (rd 20)
Robbie Ray (rd 7)
Albies (rd 26)
Luis Castillo (rd 26)

H2H league — R, HR, RBI., SB, OBP, SLG and IP, QS, SV+HLD, K/9, ERA, WHIP

I can make a case in my monkey brain to protect all of them except Castillo. I’m leaning toward protecting Martinez because that value is so good and he’s so young. Ray is enticing with K/9 as a category and being young as well. Darvish seems like a decent sacficial lamb here, since he’s sort of old. I’m also pretty worried that Albies will get taken from me.

Part of me says to let fate decide on the pitchers and protect Albies. What do you think?

The players I have to slot in if these guys are taken from me are Thames, Haniger, Eddie Rosario, or Stephen Souza, Jr.

Thanks!

Curious George Springer
Curious George Springer
Reply to  Grey
4 years ago

@Grey: That’s what I figured you’d say. thanks, Grey.

cmutimmah
cmutimmah
4 years ago

Shhhh.

I also love Corbin for a turnaround, but we *mussent* let the other owners know this my precious.

Whoa… just got a little Gollum in there.

Coincidentally, that’s what Sméagol said right before he became a father…

jack florida
jack florida
4 years ago

just finished watching the Patriot yesterday–very addicting and a masterful job of editing to explain things. kinda liked the back and forth present and past.

also watched get shorty, the series . liked it a lot, great cast, however not as good as the movie, in my opinion.

jack florida
jack florida
Reply to  Grey
4 years ago

@Grey: i will watch that soon, i do not have netflix, but it looks like there is a lot of things i would watch on it.

jack florida
jack florida
Reply to  Grey
4 years ago

@Grey: Goliath was very good. the wife has amazon prime, so get it for free, some good stuff on it, but lots of junk for me.

Crime dog
Crime dog
Reply to  Grey
4 years ago

@Grey: you need to watch goliath. Great show.

Crime dog
Crime dog
Reply to  Grey
4 years ago

@Grey: I just searched Goliath trailer on YouTube and watched the first one. Terrible trailer, did it no justice. Give it a chance, you’ll be hooked after 1 or 2 episodes. It’s only like 8 episodes long I believe. You can blow through it.

David Stockburger
David Stockburger
4 years ago

Do the rankings start on Monday?

Bill
Bill
4 years ago

Corbain? Isn’t this this Nirvana fan club web site? Ohhh Corbin…my bad!

sport
sport
4 years ago

Ok I admit I almost skipped this one just because of the guy’s name in the title. I had zero desire to own a pitcher with a WHIP that close to your college GPA. It was a good read though and I’m really thankful for your analysis. I will probably give him a roll on a team or two and get him cheap.

Thank you Grey and looking forward to Monday’s top 10!