Patrick Corbin will be only 28 years old for half of the 2018 season. I know, surprised me too. How did I know that would surprise you? I read your mind, man. What’s that? You’re now thinking string cheese would make a good tampon for a mouse? Hmm, all right, you shouldn’t share that with anyone. What is that you are thinking now? Why not take one McRib and make a McEve? Okay, I think I’m going to stop reading your mind now. Seriously *motions to your head* things are going on up there we don’t need to talk about. Last year, Patrick Corbin, or as a serial killer would call him Pat Rick Corbin, went 14-13/4.03/1.42/178, and I fell asleep in the middle of that stat line. 1.42 isn’t a WHIP it’s my college GPA. Four-oh-three isn’t an ERA, it’s an ate-testant’s starting weight on The Biggest Loser. 178 isn’t strikeouts it’s–Actually that’s not bad. As a male porn actor once said, it’s about time we went under the hood. So, what can we expect from Patrick Corbin for 2018 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Everyone recovers from Tommy John surgery at different rates. Tommy John, who wears Sean John, missed some of 1974 and the entire 1975 season, and set the precedent for recovery at about 18 months get back on the hill in the majors. Patrick Corbin took about that long, but he did not look like himself in 2016. The standard complaint of Tommy John recipients is Tommy John asks them for a nickel every time they mention his name. Their 2nd biggest complaint is a lost of command. Corbin had a 1.8 BB/9 the year before his surgery; he had a 3.8 BB/9 the year after. Will he get back to a 1.8 BB/9 eventually? I’m gonna guess no, but he did take a full walk off 2016’s walk rate and last year his BB/9 was 2.9. He can easily shave another half walk off. Another thing with Tommy John’ers is their velocity. Corbin had a 92.4 MPH fastball the year before the surgery, 91.7 the year after, and 92.4 MPH in 2017. See a pattern? He’s getting his stuff back. Why do we care? Prior to the surgery, he had an ERA usually around 3.50, then it was 5.15 in 2016, and he shaved more than a run off that in 2017. Oh, bee tee dubya, he had the 15th best ERA in the 2nd half last year with 3.26. He’s getting back there, y’all! Want another sign portending goodness? Of course you do, because you’re greedy. He controlled home runs allowed prior to his surgery, and since then his HR/9 has been inflated. But, with better command coming back to him, this past 2nd half saw his home runs allowed get back to pre-surgery levels. Corbin looks headed back to the pre-surgery levels of 8.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 with a mid-3 ERA and a solid number two for fantasy. For 2018, I’ll give Patrick Corbin the projections of 15-11/3.58/1.29/186 in 204 IP with a chance for more.