[brid video=”199515″ player=”10951″ title=”Starters2018FantasyBaseball”]
The 2018 fantasy baseball rankings are under that link. Why are you lifting your computer? Not literally under that link! Okay, you’re thick like a CVS receipt folded in half twelve times. In years past, the top 40 starters is a mix of guys I like and don’t like. Like a high cholesterol cow, it’s about half and half. This year, I really had to struggle to find guys that I didn’t want to draft in the top 40 starters. In the end, there were six starters in this top 40 starter post I was less okay, and more amscray. Each fantasy team needs about six starters total, so tell me again why you need to draft starters early? There’s a ton of them, like, this is simple math. So, simple, there’s no actual number and just ‘a ton.’ As with past rankings, my tiers and projections are included for the low, low price of $19.99! Kidding, they’re free. The oxygen you need to live while reading them is gonna cost you though. Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2018 fantasy baseball:
STARTERS, UH, STARTED IN TOP 20 STARTERS FOR 2018 FANTASY BASEBALL
21. Alex Wood – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Wacha. I call this tier, “Their intellectual property is a lack of IP.” I considered putting all the guys in this tier in the shruggle tier in the top 20 starters, just as I considered putting some of those guys in this tier. This tier (stutterer!) has problems getting to 200 IP. There’s a chance for Wood to finally put together a 200 IP season. He is only going to be 27 years old and he had one year of 189 2/3 IP. The knock on Wood is you need to knock on Wood every time he takes the mound, and pray he stays healthy and in the rotation. With Tom Koehler as the long man in the Dodgers’ bullpen, there’s a chance Wood even gets bumped at some point. So, what’s a bumped Wood? On the knotty pine. 2018 Projections: 11-7/3.34/1.11/168 in 174 IP
22. Luis Castillo – Already gave you my Luis Castillo sleeper. It shouted “oof” louder than a tennis player. I also talk about Castillo in the video, though my pronunciation of Ka-STEEL-Yo might be Terr-A-Bull, yo. 2018 Projections: 12-8/3.54/1.09/194 in 189 IP
23. Masahiro Tanaka – Already gave you my Masahiro Tanaka sleeper. It was drawn on the back of a menu and used as payment at a cafe in Paris. 2018 Projections: 14-9/3.49/1.14/205 in 194 IP
24. Sonny Gray – Here’s the weird thing about starters. The top 20 was kinda bleh. I wasn’t really excited about drafting any of them as my 1st starter. A 2nd and third starter, though? I wanna draft, like, ten of them. When you skip over the first ten or so starters in a draft this is bound to happen. You’re building your fantasy staffs with this post and the next twenty starters. By the way, a fantasy staff isn’t Gandalf’s cane for those just joining us. As for Gray, so handsome! Wait, I either misspelled my own name or–Oh, Sonny Gray! Right, yeah, I hate The House They Built In The Parking Lot Across From The House Ruth Built for pitchers, and the AL East isn’t terrific, but Gray is like Keuchel with actual good stuff. 2018 Projections: 14-9/3.47/1.19/171 in 190 IP
25. Lance McCullers – Last year I put McCullers in the top 20 overall (then when he was injured in the spring, I moved him to 28th). If his luck was neutral and he stayed healthy, he would’ve made good on that top 20 ranking. As it were, he only threw 118 2/3 IP with a 4.25 ERA, but a 3.17 xFIP. Yet — again with some stank — YET!, I still believe. His K/9 is 10.2 in 325 1/3 IP in his career and he’s only 24 years old. One of these years, McCullers will be a top 5 starter. My guess is it won’t be this year because he can’t reasonably throw 200 IP this year. (Then again, his great xFIP and Ks might mean he’s a white man’s Pineda; I will call him, Pin Tail On The Donkey.) For those with “parenthetical blindness” don’t have anyone read to you what I wrote back there, it’s not important. 2018 Projections: 10-5/3.42/1.22/164 in 145 IP
26. James Paxton – At 29 years old, has he ever pitched more than 140 IP in the majors? Well, not technically. Okay, not metaphorically either. Taking the mound every five days for a number one should produce around six months of 35 IP per month. Last year Paxton stayed as healthy as he’s ever been, and only pitched more than 35 IP in one month. That’s pretty silly. He could have a 2.20 ERA, 220 K season, and I can’t say that about every pitcher, but that’s an-ant-can-lift-a-rubber-tree-plant high hopes. More than likely you’re going to get a terrific 140 IP with large swathes of time when he’s DL’d. By the way, swathes’ definition: large strips or area of something. Used in a sentence: Everywhere you look in old films of Woodstock, you see vast swathes of grass and bush. 2018 Projections: 13-6/3.09/1.07/165 in 142 IP
27. Luke Weaver – I could’ve wrote a sleeper post for about fourteen of the twenty guys in this top 40, and I nearly did. The hype is squarely on Luis Castillo, and I’m guilty of it too, but Weaver or Castillo? Castillo can throw twenty to thirty more innings this year. So, that’s an extra 30 Ks, and a few more chances for wins. Then again…Cards and Busch are better. Walks? Castillo walks more guys. Ks? Weaver strikes out more. Castillo throws walks as in BBs, but as throws BBs as in fast-as-shizz fastballs. No one gets extra points for velocity in their fantasy league. They both have three pitches, Weaver toys with a fourth. Weaver is younger, Castillo has more experience, so more innings on his arm. Weaver had a 2.93 xFIP last year; Castillo’s was 3.41. Weaver could be a 2.75 ERA pitcher this year with a 9.5 K/9 in 160 IP; Castillo might too. Somehow I’m gonna find a way to own both. The big negative for Weaver vs. Castillo is Weaver’s team could move him out of the rotation, and he’s fra-geel-lay. 2018 Projections: 12-6/3.32/1.12/170 in 158 IP
28. Rich Hill – Difference between Rich Hill in a 12 team league and a 16 team league last year was $2, i.e., he was worth $13 in a 12 teamer, and $15 in a 16 teamer — math! I mention that because if you’re in a deeper league, you should be thinking about replacement player value. If you look at our Steamer pitcher projections that Rudy does, he breaks down rankings for nearly any conceivable league. As I’ve mentioned many times, I use Rudy’s rankings in NL and AL-Only leagues, and deeper than 14 team leagues. In 14 team and shallower, I use strictly my own rankings. Okay, that’s not entirely true. I inherently know my rankings, and have them open in front of me even in deep leagues, just in case. I mostly use Rudy rankings as a check and balance, and to inform my deep picks. His rankings go to about 1350. Yes, thirteen hundred and fiddy. As for Hill, you know what you’re getting. An older Wood — Reclaimed Wood? I bought this 15,000 Types of Wood book, and gosh darn it, I’m using it! 2018 Projections: 11-6/3.14/1.13/155 in 132 IP
29. Jose Berrios – I get the sense I won’t be owning Berrios this year. Not because I don’t like him, I do. Wait, did I just get married to Berrios? Oh, man, I’m a polygamist now, gonna have to put on some magic underpants. I say I don’t think I’m going to own Berrios this year because I’ve seen mock drafts where he’s going before a bunch of guys I have before him. For unstints, if Sonny Gray and Berrios are on the board, I’m obviously taking Gray. This also has a lot to do with how I draft my pitching staff. After the rankings, I’ll go over exactly how I draft a staff, but essentially my first starter drafted is not as safe as what other people will have. Someone will have Scherzer, I’m gonna have, say, Archer. When you draft like that, it’s important to have a bit safer number two. Berrios is not safer. He’s also not Morley Safer. By the way, my uncle tells the same joke every holiday season, “There’s this guy who lost his eye, now it takes him two hours to watch 60 Minutes.” 2018 Projections: 13-9/3.72/1.19/170 in 174 IP
30. Michael Wacha – Already gave you my Michael Wacha sleeper. It was trill without knowing what trill is. 2018 Projections: 14-7/3.61/1.24/176 in 182 IP
31. Kevin Gausman – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Pomeranz. I call this tier, “Keds or banana peels crafted into slippers.” By the tier name I mean, I’m rolling the dice with these guys — Baby needs a new pair of shoes! — and baby is going to get some fly Keds or baby is going to be wearing banana peels as slippers, literally. As for Gausman, here’s my Kevin Gausman sleeper. I wrote it while promising myself this would be the last year I predicted a breakout for him. 2018 Projections: 13-9/3.66/1.25/201 in 198 IP
32. Charlie Morton – He’s the Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson of pitchers. Meaning, Morton turned his career around relatively late, and I’m buying in. (As for those hitters, how about the Jays turning around guys? C’mon, Steve Pearce, don’t let us down! Oh, and one more thing about those hitters, I no longer trust two of them, and think they are varying levels of excrement.) What Morton did is even more improbable than those hitters. A pitcher that goes through life as an also-ran to turn it around in his 30’s is rare. One other guy in this post comes to mind, his name rhymes with Bitch Chill. Anyhoo, I’m buying into Morton’s transformation. How about a late-in-career transformation we call The Kaitlyn Jenner? No? Okay. 2018 Projections: 12-8/3.54/1.20/168 in 154 IP
33. Zack Godley – Since this is an ongoing theme in this post, Godley vs. Weaver vs. Castillo? Ends might be similar, means won’t. Godley doesn’t throw very hard, but he keeps the ball down, which should help him in Chase. Plus, giant cigar case. Hmm, I shouldn’t have used a thesaurus there and just said humidor. Live and learnt! It’s learnt, right? Zack Big Guy In the Skyly is another player who could’ve had a sleeper post. Ugh, I want all of these guys. I might get goofy with myself and skip drafting a top 20 starter, and just draft five guys from this top 40. 2018 Projections: 12-9/3.58/1.18/172 in 176 IP
34. Drew Pomeranz – This is weird (not weird), but I think Pomeranz is all but assured a better season than David Price, and has easily backed that up in the last two seasons, but no one is ranking Pomeranz before Price. Told you weird (not weird)! 2018 Projections: 14-9/3.64/1.28/185 in 183 IP
35. Gerrit Cole – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 60 starters for 2018 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Even Dave Matthews likes 4:44.” With the tier name I’m talking about Jay Z’s last album, not “almost quarter to 5 o’clock” or some arcane psalm that I don’t know. 4:44 was nominated for a Grammy, people seem to love everything Jay Z touches (raps on), and even Dave Matthews loves his new album. At least I think it’s Dave Matthews. Fast forward to 3:30 on this video. Is Dave Matthews now an intern at Complex? I’m so confused by that video, the hype about 4:44 and people drafting these pitchers. As for Cole, I gave you my Gerrit Cole fantasy when he was traded. The gist of that: The Story of O.J. is a solid track, and Cole might string a few months of O.J. together, but if I wanted an introspective, meditative Hova, I’d convert to Buddhism and fire up the post-Muslim conversion Big Daddy Kane. 2018 Projections: 13-10/3.78/1.23/181 in 195 IP
36. Jake Arrieta – Here’s what I wrote when he signed– Oh, that’s right, he didn’t sign yet, because Scott Boras went on a winter vacation to Luxembourg, so he could launder money at the Paradise Papers Laundromat & Dry Cleaning. At this stage in Arrieta’s career, I don’t see his value changing much no matter where he signs. If he goes to Miller Park, Chase or Coors, then I’ll lower him a little, but I see no way I raise him up outside of a move to Petco, which doesn’t seem likely, because the Padres are playing for 2020, then, in 2020, they’ll be playing for 2023. UPDATE: Signed with Phillies, here’s my Jake Arrieta fantasy. 2018 Projections: 13-9/3.71/1.25/174 in 182 IP
37. Marcus Stroman – He has an uncanny ability of keeping the ball down. Maybe because he’s five-five. He’d have to stuff a phone book into his cleats to get the ball up, and I’m not sure that’s within regulations. By the way, I like to think ‘regulations’ is doing gulations again. “You got to gulation again? That’s regulations.” That’s me talking nonsense. Like Jay Z, I may go back in on any of these guys if they drop something worth my time. I’m not done with any of them forever. Well, maybe Arrieta, but I could see returning to Stroman, fo’ sho. He needs to raise his K/9 from its current 7.3 range, before I even consider it. 2018 Projections: 11-12/3.62/1.28/169 in 206 IP
38. Kyle Hendricks – Another name for this tier could’ve been “Being overdrafted for a 7 to 8 K/9 guy.” Of course that isn’t nearly as interesting or confusing as Dave Matthews liking 4:44. Hendricks isn’t bad (I’m sure Dave Matthews agrees), but he’s started walking more guys last year, doesn’t strike out enough, relies a lot on grounders while also giving up home runs, and was lucky last year to have a 3.03 ERA. Honestly, I’m more uninterested in Hendricks than actively despising him. Apathy ain’t a good look, though. 2018 Projections: 13-8/3.54/1.24/156 in 178 IP
39. Madison Bumgarner – He should be healthy to start the year, assuming he doesn’t enter a BMX bike jumping competish, carpool to work with Jeff Kent or T.J. Lavin or be like, “Yo, Sandoval, jump on my pegs and let’s parkour on my bike.” That means 200+ innings, 2.85-ish ERA and a 9.5+ K/9. I don’t know about you, but even if I were in the habit of drafting top starters, the health risk alone is enough for me to ward off the willies. “Ward off the willies” is my new favorite phrase that means nothing, but you can infer a meaning. UPDATE: I only wish he fractured his hand after every single person drafted, because I knew I was never drafting him. Terrible thing to say? Perhaps, but I’m not the poor snook who was still drafting him after I said for the last three months to not draft him. I even put him in a tier originally in the top 20 starters that said, DO NOT DRAFT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. Okay, not in that tall of a font, but the sentiment was all over that tier. I said specifically, “This is just like the above tier, and I will be avoiding it, but rather than the above guys who I actually like, just won’t draft, I do not like the guys in this tier, and would never draft them at their price. So, while I wouldn’t draft the above guys, I really wouldn’t draft these guys. Got it? Cool.” And that’s me quoting me! Of course, I can’t claim prescience that I knew he’d be hit by a comebacker, but will I anyway? Hmm… So, I’ve dropped him in the rankings, and adjusted his projections accordingly. 2018 Projections: 11-6/3.21/1.13/153 in 148 IP
40. David Price – I picture David Price having a stand-off with Dennis Eckersley. Only instead of an Old West stand-off with pistols or an old WWE stand-off with steel chairs, they’re staring at each other singing Man In the Mirror, asking each other to change their ways. “No, you take a look at yourself and make the change!” “No, you got to stop yourself and make that change!” Price’s stats last year weren’t awful, but there also wasn’t a lot of them due to elbow stiffness. Elbow stiffness makes my pee-pod flaccid. 2018 Projections: 10-3/3.72/1.18/124 in 120 IP
