[brid video=”199515″ player=”10951″ title=”Starters2018FantasyBaseball”]
The royal we already went over all the hitters for 2018 fantasy baseball rankings. That’s not the “royal we” as that term usually implies. It was me writing it alone while wearing a Burger King crown. I refuse to draft a top starter where they are usually drafted. Unlike hitters, you need six starters, depending on your league depth. Simple math tells us there’s plenty of starters to go around. Simple Math also says, “Stop putting words in my mouth!” In most leagues, there’s a ton of pitchers on waivers that can help you — all year. Not just in April, and then they disappear. With the help of the Stream-o-Nator, you can get by with, say, three starters while streaming the rest. There’s also the fact that three stats by starters are difficult to predict due to luck. Wins, ERA and WHIP are prone to shift due to which way the ball bounces and whether or not the guys behind the pitchers can score runs. Finally, the best starters can give you four categories. The best hitters can give you five categories. As always, where I see tiers starting and stopping are included and my projections. Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2018 fantasy baseball:
1. Max Scherzer – Went over him in the top 20 for 2018 fantasy baseball.
2. Clayton Kershaw – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Sale. I call this tier, “La Croix bacon-avocado cheeseburger flavor.” By the tier name I mean, these are the best of the best, so why don’t I want any part of them? La Croix is delicious. Bacon-avocado cheeseburgers are delicious. So, when you put them together, isn’t that wonderful? No, it’s sparkling water that tastes like the smell in an Arby’s bathroom. Great starters in fantasy are La Croix bacon-avocado cheeseburger flavor. This is a refresher for noobs, which I believe is spelled with two zeroes. I’ve gone over this before, but it bears repeating like a hairy gay man from San Francisco who stutters. If you own Kershaw or any of the guys in this tier, you’re drafting scared. You’re scared to go into the season without a number one starter. You’re afraid that if you don’t have an ace you’ll never find a starter off waivers or your later picks won’t pan out. You’re chicken, as Biff would say, because there’s more pitchers than Michael J. Fox can shake a stick at. The only people that draft a top starter want a security blanket. They want to feel like they’re pitching staff is safe. They want to feel nuzzled like a bug in an alpaca rug. If you would’ve owned Aaron Nola, Alex Wood, Rich Hill, James Paxton, Robbie Ray and Madison Bumgarner last year, your ERA would’ve been 3.12 in 864 1/3 IP. And that would’ve been in spite of your top pitcher drafted, Bumgarner! Without Bumgarner, your ERA would’ve been better at 3.10! Sure, I’m cherrypicking guys from last year…Just like you could’ve cherrypicked any of them off waivers in your league or drafted them way later than the top 20. Not one of the guys I mentioned I told you to avoid either, except Bumgarner. Also, I could’ve easily slanted the results by saying I told you to draft Kluber, C-Mart, Carrasco, Verlander and other starters who were drafted high, but not top five starter high. In some leagues, you could do fine NOT drafting ANY starters. Yes, I brought out the caps. I’m not only talking about H2H leagues where you can carry only relievers. I’m talking 10 or 12-team roto leagues where you can stream starters. Maybe you own one starter and stream five spots. Maybe you own two guys and stream four spots. Maybe you drink seven cups of coffee and stream all day. Even if you want to draft an entire rotation and hold them (or try to), you don’t need a guy from this tier. There’s plenty of options later to fill out your rotation so you’re competitive in leagues where you can’t stream. I’m not suggesting you Reggie Roby starters. I’m telling you to Reggie Roby top starters. Concentrate on your hitting while these guys are being drafted. As for Kershaw, he’s great, yadda3. 2018 Projections: 17-6/2.51/0.94/225 in 202 IP
3. Corey Kluber – I forgot this classic bit of informational head-shaking from Kluber’s Wiki page: the Padres traded Kluber to the Indians for Ryan Ludwick. All dem memes — blinking white guy meme, black guy pointing at his head meme, I caN’T EvEn BeLIeVe thE pADreS trADed kLuBer SpongeBob meme — can’t properly contextualize my dismay. If the Padres would’ve done nothing in the last six years, they’d have Rizzo, Kluber and, well, Yangervis Solarte, but still. Kluber just had his best season of his career, and he already won the Cy Young in 2014, that’s how good he was in 2017. He had a 11.7 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 2.52 xFIP, 2.25 ERA, 18 wins, and a 1.79 ERA in the 2nd half in 110 1/3 IP. My guess is when he has a 4+ ERA in April this year a lot less people will be trading him away, but never underestimate a panicked fantasy owner. 2018 Projections: 17-7/2.61/0.97/228 in 205 IP
4. Chris Sale – He had Corey Kluber’s season in its inverse — Korey Cluber? Meh, now he sounds like a YouTubrity. Sale’s overall numbers were still beautiful, but his 1st half was better than his 2nd half. His April ERA of 1.19 led to a 2.75 ERA in the 1st half, with a 4.38 ERA in August it showed kryptonite and led to a 3.12 ERA in the 2nd half. This might be an indication that Sale’s on the wrong side of the age curve for hard throwing pitchers, but it was mostly his slider abandoning him late in the season, and his K/9 in the 2nd half was still 13.5 with a 2.62 xFIP, and 308 Ks on the season, so, yeah, it’s not just my Jewish heritage saying it’s hard to be negative on a Sale. 2018 Projections: 17-9/2.87/1.01/256 in 207 IP
5. Stephen Strasburg – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Carrasco. I call this tier, “Skunked can of La Croix bacon-avocado cheeseburger flavor.” This is just like the above tier, and I will be avoiding it, but rather than the above guys who I actually like, just won’t draft, I do not like the guys in this tier, and would never draft them at their price. So, while I wouldn’t draft the above guys, I really wouldn’t draft these guys. Got it? Cool. Full disclosure, I had Strasburg in the Sale tier, then moved him down here. I like Strasburg, but a guy who hasn’t thrown 200 IP in three years doesn’t deserve to be in the 1st tier of starters. Might be a case made that he doesn’t even deserve to be in this tier, but I’m not making that case. Like a kissing booth, this is all lip service since I’m not drafting Strasburg either way. 2018 Projections: 16-7/2.96/1.04/211 in 182 IP
6. Noah Syndergaard – The Mets have a new manager, Mickey Callaway, who I will start calling “The Caddy” because Callaway will be lugging around a useless club. However, he may not have that terrible of a pitching staff. Assuming health. There’s that old chestnut. Syndergaard had a 10.1 K/9 and 0.9 BB/9 last year. EXCLAMATION MARKS! In only 30 1/3 IP because of injury. Lowercase yay. See no reason why Syndergaard won’t be healthy, but put confidence of Mets starters in one hand, and their ability to stay healthy in the other hand, and you have two empty hands. Seriously, how can you put someone’s ‘ability to stay healthy’ in a hand? C’mon. 2018 Projections: 15-10/2.81/1.06/215 in 184 IP
7. Jacob deGrom – I just Googled “DeGrom elbow” and there was 44,000 results. “DeGrom shoulder” produced 78,000 results. “DeGrom neck” produced 117,000 results. “DeGrom hair” produced 300,000 results, all of which were grown men complaining about how deGrom cut off his hair in October. “My emojis are all sad, even the eggplant,” said one Mets fan. So, assuming deGrom is healthy, and didn’t generate all his power Samson-like from his hair, he should be solid. Again, that assumption is high on the ass meter. 2018 Projections: 16-9/3.06/1.15/221 in 195 IP
8. Carlos Carrasco – In a lot of ways, I’m not ranking starters by their projected ERAs (though I am), I’m ranking starters based on their K/9 and BB/9 (and other stuff, but you catch the drift). Parentheticals be damned, somehow a guy has a 10.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 with a career 3.78 ERA, as Carrasco does, and be a top seven starter. For the first time in his career, Carrasco (Careerasco?) threw 200 IP last year. Not bad for a 25-year-old. Less so for Carrasco who is about to be 31 years old. I know, I was surprised he was that old too. Not as surprised, as say, a cat jumping out of a closet. They should do a Cats revival on Broadway where the whole thing is cats jumping out of closets. Nothing in Carrasco’s peripherals is pointing to a guy who will fail this year, but nothing is saying, “Yeah, he’s totally going to be a 2.50 ERA pitcher,” either. 2018 Projections: 15-10/3.35/1.12/217 in 194 IP
9. Luis Severino – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Yu. I call this tier, “Draft, but don’t be a Panty Mouth.” By the tier name I mean, I will draft these guys if they’re available at a reasonable price. Yes, I like these guys and will be drafting them, but you’re way too excited, and the St. Bernard panting vibe you’re giving off is betraying your cool demeanor. You can’t be too anxious, otherwise you’re going to overdraft starters. There’s still plenty of guys. So, don’t be a sweating drool face, Panty Mouth. You didn’t think “Panty Mouth” meant something else, did you? As for Severino, if he was in the NL, I would’ve ranked him five spots higher. What? Even in Coors? Okay, no, but stop quibbling, you quibbler! For average fastball velocity on qualifying pitchers, Severino was number one with 97.6 MPH. Can you say butter with fifteen syllables? Okay, a fast fastball does not make a pitcher. True. But how about Severino’s sixth best in the majors slider, the sixth best change, and a top 20 fastball? Can you induce another five or six syllables in that butter pronunciation? I think you can. 2018 Projections: 16-8/3.10/1.06/222 in 190 IP
10. Robbie Ray – Damn, Cousin Sweatpants, I wanna draft all of the starters in this tier, but this is where not being a panty mouth comes in. You really don’t need a starter here, but if you get caca-cuckoo for Ks like me, I can see why you’re foaming at the lips. Ray had 218 Ks last year in only 162 IP. Imagine he throws 200 IP this year. Oh, man, I’m feeling lightheaded from wonderful. I wanna go into a Thai massage right now and ask for a Robbie, and hope they misinterpret my meaning. 2018 Projections: 16-7/3.26/1.16/234 in 191 IP
11. Carlos Martinez – Reminds me of Carlos Carrasco with slightly less Ks, slightly better division to pitch in, worse walks, better dependability, less upside, less downside, more porn in his Twitter likes, much younger, with a similar fastball velocity. See? Just like Carrasco! 2018 Projections: 15-8/3.24/1.19/212 in 202 IP
12. Justin Verlander – Who’s 34 years old and just averaged 95 MPH on his fastball all year? If you said your cousin, Laverney, I’m gonna say no, I don’t think so, but I don’t know Laverney. If you were to say Justin Verlander, I’d say bingo, then a priest would check my card for a winner. Not entirely sure how Verlander is doing it, but my guess is drinking the same boba milk tea as Nolan Ryan. It appeared for about four years that Verlander lost that fastball feel, but now that he’s got it back, I’m not betting against him. Steamer, which is usually conservative, even sees Verlander raising his 2017 K/9 of 9.6 to 10.1 in 2018. (Though, they also see his ERA falling to 3.94). 2018 Projections: 16-9/3.41/1.15/223 in 212 IP
13. Yu Darvish – As for Yu, nice sweatpants. Oh, wait, that’s you, not Yu. Here’s the thing, and there is a thing, on our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater last year, Brad Peacock was a top 20 starter. So, what does that have to do with anything? Pitchers are straight garbage right now. Could Darvish be a top 20 starter? Yeah, he does have a top 15 K/9. Last year, shizz went pretty pear-shaped — 3.86 ERA; 4.50 2nd half ERA; his K-rate fell almost two Ks per nine from the previous year. This is ignoring his postseason too, as I’m trying not to hold small sample sizes against him. Hey, that’s what the ladies usually say to me! If we were to fault him for his postseason, shizz isn’t pear-shaped, it’s more the shape of a watermelon with a mushroom sitting on top, like a naked fat man lying down. UPDATE: Yu signed with the Cubs for $126 million. If you just had Siri read that off to you, stop celebrating, and get off the phone with the Lambo dealer. It’s not you, it’s Yu Darvish. Not saying this is everything, but I just looked at the park factors for Wrigley vs. Dodger Stadium. I mean, I knew they were grossly in favor of Dodger Stadium for pitchers, but I just wanted to confirm. And, what do you know, I confirmed it. Darvish had a 3.44 ERA in Los Angeles in 49 2/3 IP, and, while Wrigley won’t be as gentle, it won’t be any worse than Arlington, where he played previously with success. He feels like a richer Archer. Call him, Robin Hood: Prince of Ks. 2018 Projections: 14-10/3.51/1.15/221 in 196 IP
14. Chris Archer – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Bauer. I call this tier, “The shruggle is real.” *shrugs* Man walking by, “Why did you just give such an aggressive shrug?” Because I’m struggling to get extremely excited about these starters, but I need to draft a starter, and these guys should be solid, so I’m drafting them. Struggling to draft with a shrug? Yes, the shruggle is real. I know, I know, we were chill AF for a second there, but by the end of this tier, I’d really like to see you own a starter. As for Archer, something I’ve noticed with hitters is everyone’s HR/FB% was way up last year, because, ya know, everyone and your maw-maw hit homers last year. Something I’m noticing three-quarters of the way through the top 20 starters is all hitters were K’ing Shizz from Shinola, which caused all starters to have high strikeout rates last year. Archer was no different, posting his highest K/9 of his career (11.2). The problem with Archer, and really there’s only one. Doode gives up home runs. He didn’t used to, but in the last two years he’s given up more than one ding-dong per nine, which has helped make his xFIP (3.35) more digestible than his 4.07 ERA. If he avoids big innings (which vs. the Yankees should be no problem, right, brah?), Archer could put together that ever elusive 2.75 ERA with 250 Ks. 2018 Projections: 11-10/3.69/1.22/237 in 205 IP
15. Zack Greinke – There’s an easy way to get to positive on Greinke — he had a 2.86 ERA in 116 1/3 IP last year in the 1st half with a 10.1 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9. Unfortch, with him at 34 years old, it’s easy for me to get negative too. 8.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 with a 3.63 xFIP in the 2nd half is a steaming cup of meh with a mehmallow melting on top. His fastball has had declining value for two straight years, but his offspeed stuff still is still repped by Elite Model Management with a strong sashay on the catwalk. This year the humidor appears to be in full effect, which means good things for the breaking stuff, and Greinke. Struggling to not just draft Greinke with a shrug. A shruggle. 2018 Projections: 14-9/3.45/1.10/202 in 205 IP
16. Aaron Nola – Out of all the pitchers in this tier, I’m most excited about Nola. So, why the shruggle? His track record of greatest hits is about as long as Crazy Town’s. Come come my lady, you’re my butterfly, sugar baby. And *raspberries lips* That’s about it. I love guys about to throw in their third full season, and under the age of 25 — *chef’s kiss* — Muah! I love me some of that sugar baby. Could Nola still be another year away from a top 20 starter season? Yeah, that’s my worry. Hence, the shruggle. 2018 Projections: 14-9/3.41/1.18/188 in 184 IP
17. Jose Quintana – Last year feels like an aberration for Quintana as far as his 4.15 ERA is concerned. This is anecdotal, but I think he knew he was leaving the White Sox and it was bothering him in the 2nd half. Then, after he was traded, his K/9 swelled and his walk rate plummeted to his usual 2.2 BB/9 levels. I know, it makes little sense that he wanted out of Chicago so bad that it affected him, then he was fine when he ended up back in Chicago, but it’s my working theory. I’m also at a standing desk, so any working theory of mine is outstanding! When people say, “Grey, do you work out?” I say, “No, I work up!” 2018 Projections: 15-9/3.49/1.17/204 in 202 IP
18. Trevor Bauer – El oh eff me. I didn’t want to put Trevor Bauer in the top 20 starters, even as I was writing his name in the top 20. This feels like it’s going to bite me in the ass almost immediately. Can you imagine a fantasy staff with Trevor Bauer as your number one? I can: insert poop emoji. OR IS IT?! Damn, Abrupt Reversal Question, bringing it. In the 2nd half last year, he had a 3.01 ERA in 83 2/3 IP with a 10 K/9. That’s a number one. Of course, his 1st half was a 5.24 ERA and that might’ve been hard to stomach like a ghost pepper. However, his 1st half K/9 was also a 10. Who are you with all these 10’s? Bo Derek? So, what was the difference between the 1st half and 2nd? He started throwing his curve 30% of the time, and everything clicked. 30% of the time leaning on the curve sounds like a lot, right? Yeah, Nola and Kluber were right there with him. Another thing that Bauer’s got going for him is he’s young and has been a workhorse compared to, say, Alex Wood or James Paxton. I admit there’s some risk relying on Bauer, but his 2nd half appeared to be a forward step, and I’m ready for a trust fall into this shruggle. 2018 Projections: 15-10/3.59/1.29/204 in 189 IP
19. Dallas Keuchel – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Ohtani. I call this tier, “Wu-Tang ain’t the only thing not to eff wit.” I want no part of these starters. It’s not that I don’t like Daylass Koochel, it’s that I don’t understand him. I get that he throws a ton of grounders — yo, that sinker, yo. It doesn’t matter that his fastball is only 88 MPH, his ground ball rate was 66.8% last year, which would’ve been the 2nd best rate in the last seventeen years if he qualified (he only threw 145 2/3 IP last year). This isn’t even about how he was seen in a walking boot right after the Astros won the World Series because his championship parade dance instructor was Mark Madsen. This is because I just don’t understand banking on positive results from an 88-MPH, ground ball pitcher. If he loses a hair off any of his pitches, he’s going to be a 4.75 ERA guy, and if you own him, you’re gonna lose more hairs than that. 2018 Projections: 15-7/3.41/1.14/160 in 190 IP
20. Shohei Ohtani – I already gave you my Shohei Ohtani fantasy. It was written like the sunrise, too early in my eyes. It was also written prior to us hearing about his elbow injury. After we heard that, I wrote, “Revealed he has a sprain of his UCL in his right elbow. So, you’re saying there was a reason he only threw 25 IP last year? Surprise, surprise. I guess he can always hit instead of pitch, or do neither and have Tommy John surgery. The Angels are saying Ohtani can pitch through it, after he received some injections. This makes him their third pitcher in last two years “pitching” through it. I wonder if Garrett Richards, Matt Shoemakeror Skaggs have any advice for him. Like, I don’t know, have the surgery immediately?” And that’s me quoting me! I also added that I’d be removing forty innings from my prior projections of 12-4/3.28/1.22/146 in 140 IP for Ohtani. After reading more on his injury and success of the PRP injection, I’m going to leave my projections as they were, but I’d be lying if I said I didn’t think he was very risky, or that I was drafting him in any league. Hence, the Wu-Tang tier. 2018 Projections: 12-4/3.28/1.22/146 in 140 IP
STARTER RANKINGS CONTINUE IN TOP 40 STARTERS FOR 2018 FANTASY BASEBALL
