Dude, what does mine say? Sweet. What about mine? Dude. What does mine say. It says “hey malamoney dude, where is that spreadsheet you’ve promised us”? It’s tattooed right here on my upper back. Unfortunately today is not the day. This whole virus thing we’ve got going on has really put a monkey wrench in my plans. The problem is that my spreadsheet is driven by projections. The problem with my projections is that with the length of the season up in limbo, my projections are kinda in a holding pattern. I highly doubt we are going to see a full season, and am expecting a shortened season. But how short. No clue. There’s even a chance of no season. Say it ain’t so.
So why can’t I just share the spreadsheet with whatever projections I currently have and then adjust once the season is better understood. The short answer is that it would be a boat load of work. Unfortunately the way I created that thing it’s not so simple to just replace the projections, at least not for more than a few players. I have no desire to go through the motions twice once they announce the official plans for the season. A lot of the work I have been doing to the spreadsheet these past few weeks has been to remedy this problem for the future.
I have made the executive decision to postpone the spreadsheet until the picture is clearer. I realize that sucks for those of you in leagues that have already drafted or are about to draft. I mean this sincerely when I say “sorry” to you all. However, I really think leagues should be postponing their drafts. Not just so that you can use my spreadsheet, but because I think the start date will have a reasonable impact on draft day decisions. Not to mention keepers.
Here’s what I do have to say about what I currently have. Based on my full season projections, here are the top ten hitters:
Mike Trout (560.47 points)
Alex Bregman (540.34 points)
Mookie Betts (539.77 points)
Christian Yelich (520.64 points)
Cody Bellinger (517.81 points)
Nolan Arenado (511.93 points)
Jose Ramirez (510.09 points)
Francisco Lindor (499.56 points)
Juan Soto (495.77 points)
Anthony Rendon (490.06 points)
There’s one notable omission for the list above. Anyone see it? Or I guess I should say “not see it”. Ronald Acuña Jr. is not in the top ten??? How is that possible. He nearly went 40/40 last year. The simple answer is strikeouts. Last season he had 188 strikeouts. This year I’ve got him on a similar trajectory. Based on these preliminary rankings Acuña comes in at 13th place with Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo edging him out in the points department.
Circling back to the topic of not penalizing for strikeouts, let’s see how it effects Acuña. If we don’t take away a point every time he strikes out he jumps up to the fifth ranked hitter based on points. See how this little scoring difference can have an impact on player rankings, and in turn, draft value. Bryce Harper and Peter Alonso also make small jumps in ranking. Anyone with more than 150 strikeouts gets a bump.
Here are some players I like just based on a cursory glance at my first cut of rankings based on full season projections.
Anthony Rizzo, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Santana, Marcus Semien, Josh Bell, Michael Brantley, Kris Bryant, Mike Moustakas, Jeff McNeil and Josh Donaldson. Most of these players I think are going to have higher draft rankings than ADP making them prime candidates for draft day bargains. Once the spreadsheet is closer to being done we can dive into specifics and see who else sticks out.
Other things to consider about a shortened season are pitchers that might have been on innings limits. How about prospects? Will those that were going to start the season in minors find themselves on the “new and improved” Opening Day roster? What about slow starters that need a month or so to get going. How much will these nuances effect players fantasy baseball value?
For those still patiently waiting, it’s coming. I’m still out here and I’m still going to be your points league dude. At least until Grey decides otherwise. Hope you are all healthy. Now go wash your hands. You don’t know where I’ve been!
Follow malamoney on Twitter at @malamoney