Dude, what does mine say? Sweet. What about mine? Dude. What does mine say. It says “hey malamoney dude, where is that spreadsheet you’ve promised us”? It’s tattooed right here on my upper back. Unfortunately today is not the day. This whole virus thing we’ve got going on has really put a monkey wrench in my plans. The problem is that my spreadsheet is driven by projections. The problem with my projections is that with the length of the season up in limbo, my projections are kinda in a holding pattern. I highly doubt we are going to see a full season, and am expecting a shortened season. But how short. No clue. There’s even a chance of no season. Say it ain’t so.

So why can’t I just share the spreadsheet with whatever projections I currently have and then adjust once the season is better understood. The short answer is that it would be a boat load of work. Unfortunately the way I created that thing it’s not so simple to just replace the projections, at least not for more than a few players. I have no desire to go through the motions twice once they announce the official plans for the season. A lot of the work I have been doing to the spreadsheet these past few weeks has been to remedy this problem for the future.

I have made the executive decision to postpone the spreadsheet until the picture is clearer. I realize that sucks for those of you in leagues that have already drafted or are about to draft. I mean this sincerely when I say “sorry” to you all. However, I really think leagues should be postponing their drafts. Not just so that you can use my spreadsheet, but because I think the start date will have a reasonable impact on draft day decisions. Not to mention keepers.

Here’s what I do have to say about what I currently have. Based on my full season projections, here are the top ten hitters:

Mike Trout (560.47 points)
Alex Bregman (540.34 points)
Mookie Betts (539.77 points)
Christian Yelich (520.64 points)
Cody Bellinger (517.81 points)
Nolan Arenado (511.93 points)
Jose Ramirez (510.09 points)
Francisco Lindor (499.56 points)
Juan Soto (495.77 points)
Anthony Rendon (490.06 points)

There’s one notable omission for the list above. Anyone see it? Or I guess I should say “not see it”. Ronald Acuña Jr. is not in the top ten??? How is that possible. He nearly went 40/40 last year. The simple answer is strikeouts. Last season he had 188 strikeouts. This year I’ve got him on a similar trajectory. Based on these preliminary rankings Acuña comes in at 13th place with Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo edging him out in the points department.

Circling back to the topic of not penalizing for strikeouts, let’s see how it effects Acuña. If we don’t take away a point every time he strikes out he jumps up to the fifth ranked hitter based on points. See how this little scoring difference can have an impact on player rankings, and in turn, draft value. Bryce Harper and Peter Alonso also make small jumps in ranking. Anyone with more than 150 strikeouts gets a bump.

Here are some players I like just based on a cursory glance at my first cut of rankings based on full season projections.

Anthony Rizzo, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Santana, Marcus Semien, Josh Bell, Michael Brantley, Kris Bryant, Mike Moustakas, Jeff McNeil and Josh Donaldson. Most of these players I think are going to have higher draft rankings than ADP making them prime candidates for draft day bargains. Once the spreadsheet is closer to being done we can dive into specifics and see who else sticks out.

Other things to consider about a shortened season are pitchers that might have been on innings limits. How about prospects? Will those that were going to start the season in minors find themselves on the “new and improved” Opening Day roster? What about slow starters that need a month or so to get going. How much will these nuances effect players fantasy baseball value?

For those still patiently waiting, it’s coming. I’m still out here and I’m still going to be your points league dude. At least until Grey decides otherwise. Hope you are all healthy. Now go wash your hands. You don’t know where I’ve been!

Follow malamoney on Twitter at @malamoney

 
  1. B. Rabbit says:
    (link)

    I felt weird, naked drafting without the spreadsheet but I completely understand. Glad that in your cursory glance and top ten you mentioned five of my ten position players.

    Thanks for all you do!

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      Thanks. And sorry…

  2. Kyle Eberth says:
    (link)

    My league limits to 7 starts per week. Is there a way to account for this limit in your point spreadsheet?

    Next question, my league has 3 roster spots for RP’s and 2 spots for P’s (SP & RP). 4 slots for SP’s. Most guys fill the P spots with relief guys. Any thoughts on how to account for this.

    I doubt there’s a perfect solution.

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      I’m not sure it matters. You still want to build the best team regardless of how many starts you get per week. That is a weekly lineup issue, not a draft day concern.

      What is your scoring system? Do RP’s generally score more points per week than an SP?

      • Kyle Eberth says:
        (link)

        SP’s on average score 13pts per start
        RP’s I’d guess 3pts

  3. Shivdaddy says:
    (link)

    I got my league to postpone our draft so I am still looking forward to the sheet! Where does Realmuto and Hader rank? I know years past it has always ranked the top C and RP overly high. I was hoping you were going to release sheet with an option on projection page to adjust the projections by certain thresholds such as 25%, 33%, 50%, etc. Anyways, thank you for what you do!

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      Great news!

      I am still working on the hitter vs pitcher aspect so I can’t really compare Realmuto to Hader. I will say that spreadsheet aside, I’d rather have Realmuto.

      And I am also working on a way to reduce C value similar to what I have for RP because the sheet also ranks the top RP near the top just like the top C.

  4. Ponch says:
    (link)

    Unfortunately we are drafting tonight. I am drafting 13 out of 13. Go two hitters or get one ACE and one hitter?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      Depends on your scoring system. Is this a re-draft league or are there keepers?

      • Eric F Estrada says:
        (link)

        Re-draft League. I went w/ Arenado and Lindor as my 13th/14th. Pitching was Paddack, Darvish, Woodruff, Lamet.

        BATTING NAME SETTINGS
        1B Singles 1 point
        2B Doubles 2 points
        3B Triples 3 points
        BB Walks (Batters) 1 point
        CS Caught Stealing -1 point
        CYC Hitting for the Cycle 10 points
        GSHR Grand Slam Home Runs 2 points
        HR Home Runs 4 points
        KO Strikeouts (Batter) -1 point
        R Runs 1 point
        RBI Runs Batted In 1 point
        SB Stolen Bases 1 point

        PITCHING NAME SETTINGS
        BS Blown Saves -2 points
        CG Complete Games 0 points
        ER Earned Runs -1 point
        INN Innings 0.5 points
        K Strikeouts (Pitcher) 1 point
        L Losses -5 points
        NH No-Hitters 0 points
        PG Perfect Games 0 points
        QS Quality Starts 4 points
        S Saves 5 points
        SO Shutouts 0 points
        W Wins 6 points

        SPECIAL SCORING FOR STARTING PITCHERS
        CG Complete Games 5 points
        NH No-Hitters 10 points
        PG Perfect Games 15 points
        SO Shutouts 5 points

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
          (link)

          Good move…

  5. Jerms says:
    (link)

    My draft hasnt happened yet, but this is going to be my first points league ever so im counting on you.
    My league scoring seems pretty standard but they give 10 points for a win and -5 for a loss and 4 for a save. Does this scoring system change the way you would usually draft in a points league?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      That’s going to make aces pretty valuable. The scoring system 100 percent effects how I draft in a points league.

      When is your draft?

      • Jerms says:
        (link)

        We are waiting to see what happens with the season, so no time soon. Im sure ill have your spreadsheet by that time.

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
          (link)

          It’s close…

          • malamoney

            malamoney says:
            (link)

            Post your scoring system and I will reply with your league rankings.

            • malamoney

              malamoney says:
              (link)

              This reply wasn’t for you as the spreadsheet will be available by the time you need it.

  6. Philomath says:
    (link)

    malamoney
    will miss the lifevest feeling of having the points spreadsheet. hope you and yours are healthy and happy.

    philo

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      When is your draft?

      • Philomath says:
        (link)

        Tuesday 24th @ 8pm

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
          (link)

          Post your scoring system and I will reply with your league rankings.

  7. Todd says:
    (link)

    My 10-team points league does penalize Ks, so owning Acuña is awesome, but not AWESOME.

    Anyway, I’m picking fourth every round. How am I doing so far?

    Keepers (4): Acuña, Soto, Arenado, Flaherty

    Rounds 1–5: Corbin, Darvish, Vlad Jr, Meadows, Muncy
    Rounds 6–10: Yates, Hiura, Ryu, J Urias, Goldschmidt
    Rounds 11–13: Franmil, Heaney, C Seager

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      What’s your scoring system?

      Would really need to know who else was available at each pick to know if you made “good” decisions…

      • Todd says:
        (link)

        Positions: C 1B 2B 3B SS OFx3 U SPx5 RP Benchx10 ILx3

        Hitters:
        R +1 TB +1 RBI +1 BB +1 K –1 HBP +1 SAC +1 SB +2 CS –1 GIDP –1 OFAST +1 E –1

        Pitchers:
        IP +3 H –1 ER –1 BB –1 HB –1 K +1 WP –1 B –1 SV +7 BS –2

        And I’m more looking for generally does this seem like a decent team? Anywhere I’m weak and should look for sleepers? (Since my original post, I added R14 Stroman and R15 Akiyama.)

        Thanks for taking a look!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *