Aaron Judge grew up in San Francisco. He told associates of mine at the Winter Meetings that he can still remember which Walgreen’s he was in when he witnessed his first shoplifting. He wistfully remembered, “I was by the breath mints, and this man carried out six boxes of Wheat Thins.” Fond memories for Judge that are going to hard to replicate when he signs a 1-year deal with the Giants in ten years. As we all assumed, Aaron Judge re-signed with the Yankees through his age-39 season. Luckily, Razzball has a time machine at its disposal, and I went forward nine years to take a quick pic of Aaron Judge when he’s in that final year. Here it is:

So, Aaron Judge on the Yankees is more of the same. *claps hands, all done* No? Okay. Not sure how many people heard this, but it was reported the other day that MLB used three different baseballs last year. One of those balls was more batter-friendly. It was found only at the All-Star Game, Home Run Derby, postseason and Yankees games. This sounds like a joke, but the jokes ended with the guy walking out with Wheat Thins. I’m being serious now. Yo, jai alai called, it wants its “this sport is a joke” moniker back. MLB embraces gambling and institutes cheating by way of different balls. It truly is incredible.

Last year, Aaron Judge went 62/16/.311, guys and five girl readers, and that is the best line of all-time. 40/40 is nice; 50/10 is butter; 60/5 is nomnomnom, get in my belly; 62/12? I mean, c’mon. Seriously, c’mon. C’mon, c’mon! C’mon, c’mon, c’mon! It’s ludicrous. It’s mind boggling. Thesaurus, give me another synonym! It’s BREATHTAKING!!! He always had power — he’s a freakin’ giant, of course he has power! — but he’s never hit .300 or stole more than six bags in a season before. Also, being a certified giant (and not a Giant, as was rumored), he’s prone to injuries. That year of 62/12 wasn’t just a career year, it was the career year of career years. How’sever, if he goes 40/10/.280, it’s still very doable and a great. For 2023, I’ll give Aaron Judge projections of 109/41/102/.283/10 in 548 ABs. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2023 fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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See all of today’s starting lineups

# MLB Starting Lineups For Mon 8/4
ARI | ATL | BAL | BOS | CHC | CIN | CLE | COL | HOU | KC | LAA | LAD | MIA | MIL | MIN | NYM | NYY | PHI | PIT | SD | SF | STL | TB | TEX | TOR | ATH | CHW | DET | OAK | SEA | WSH

They might be Giants again in 2023, but 2022 was a weird year by the bay. Buster Posey is the best defensive catcher I’ve ever seen. Easy to underrate his value on a day to day basis. His absence was felt in the win/loss column. Still, they’ve got a smart front office with plenty of money to spend, so it shouldn’t be long before they’re pushing the Padres and Dodgers again. 

 

1. SS Marco Luciano  | 21 | A+ | 2023

Luciano has lost some of that new-car shine over the years as people settled into the reality that he was unlikely to steal many bases, but I think 2022 was his most encouraging season as a pro. Nothing was particularly loud (.263/.339/.459), but his plate skills looked okay (9.6% BB, 22.2% K) and he was 20 percent better than league average against older players during something of a grind-it-out season with a two-month injury slicing it down the middle.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Imagine a very good boy sitting at attention, let’s call that boy, Treat Urner. Treat Urner is looking at you with those doe-eyes giving you all kinds of oxytocin. Your brain is firing off like July 4th over the Hudson. My God it feels good! Stare at me Treat Urner and give me more and more oxytocin! Wag your tail and give me the love! In a baby voice, you lean in, “What does Treat Urner want? Does Treat Urner want a treat? Does he? Okay, to earn one of those treats you need to steal 30 bags, hit 25 homers and hit .300. Can the good boy do that? He can? Aw, what a good Treat Urner this Treat Urner is! Here…” Then I throw the treat into the yard, it lands in the bushes and we spend the next twenty minutes trying to figure out where that stupid treat landed while he licks my ears. Treat Urner was going to be great wherever he went. Landing in Philly gets Kyle Schwarber out of the leadoff slot. Right…RIGHT?! Please someone say I’m right. I don’t want to go to Amoeba Records and scratch Rob Thomas’s name off every CD as an act of deviance vs. the Phils’ manager. By the by, Trea Turner getting 11 years is quite funny.

But, of course, this is for this year, and there’s no one better, when consistency is factored in. Just an absolute lock for great counting stats. Now in Philly, it should help maintain the power, that isn’t top-flight, but good enough for a guy with his speed. Hopefully, he doesn’t pay too close attention to all the other Phils’ fly ball tendencies. “So, you’re saying I should have a Launch Angle of 26? Okay!” That’s Trea Turner at the batting cage with Rhys Hoskins and The Schwammer. No, stay away, Treat Urner! Good boy! For 2023, I’ll give Trea Turner projections of 107/22/101/.293/30 in 606 ABs. That means Treastykakes are the best food in Philly since Chase steaks! Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2023 fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

“You can spend any amount of money, but it has to be in the months of November and December, then from the months of April thru October you have to stink.”

Rangers’ GM, the 8-foot tall Chris Young shakes his head, lowering the last will and testament of the Rangers’ crazy aunt Mary, who just passed. Finally, Young says, “This is more convoluted than Brewster’s Millions.”

Don’t fully understand it, but the Rangers print money in December of every year, then set it on fire all summer long. It’s not clear how, why or any other question you have. All I know is the Rangers have made this their MO. It truly is impressive if you stop to think about it. I’m glad they’re spending money, but real questions: Where is all this money coming from and are they ever going to win anything? So, the latest spend was on Jacob deGrom, giving him $222 million. Good for him. As I said at one point last year, when he’s healthy, he’s one of the best pitchers in the game. Speaking of which, as frequent contributor, Coolwhip, reminded me: What will deGrom’s health be like without the Mets’ trainers? 220 IP incoming! I kid, I think. No, I don’t think deGrom will suddenly be the model of good health. He has a better chance of being a cover model on Men’s Health next to a topless Bartolo Colon. Speaking of the Mets:

So, Jacob deGrom goes to a great park, but he’s stadium-proof. He’s in a new league, but he’s league-proof. He’s the best pitcher in the game, who can’t get past 92 IP since 2021. He could be one of the biggest lottery tickets in fantasy baseball drafts, but, unless he fell, I won’t be trying to cash it. His 14.3 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, and 1.54 xFIP last year are so ridiculous. In 64 IP or 15 IP, it doesn’t matter. No one is better, it’s just “no one is better” for how many innings? That’s the question. For 2023, I’ll give Jacob deGrom projections of 10-2/2.26/0.83/167 in 107 IP. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2023 fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

With the signings of Jose Abreu and Jacob deGrom, the off-season feels officially underway, and I feel like I’m falling behind on some general moves and shakes around the game.

We’ll get back to the lists and cover the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday. 

The Abreu signing is unique for our purposes in that it creates value for the team he leaves behind and the team he’s joining. If the team lets Eloy Jimenez DH and installs Andrew Vaughn at first base, both youngsters get a glowing arrow up. No longer condemned to wander the outfield, they can finally settle into everyday roles. The club has been batting Tim Anderson at the top for a long time, but his high-contact, low-walk approach would be better employed in an RBI spot. Trouble is that’s true for several White Sox. A healthy Yoan Moncada could lead off, but he was awful last season, posting a .273 on base percentage in 104 games. But let’s just pretend he can bounce back to something like the .367 OBP he posted in 2019 or the .375 from 2021. 

I’d probably lay it out like this: 

1. 3B Yoan Moncada 

2. OF Luis Robert 

3. DH Eloy Jimenez 

4. SS Tim Anderson

5. 1B Andrew Vaughn

6. C Yasmani Grandal 

That’s a compelling top six. Could arrange the top five in any sequence. What happens with seven through nine is anyone’s guess.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

One week ago, I was lamenting the state of the second base position in Major League Baseball and thus fantasy baseball. Outside of a few top players, it is now overrun with utility players and doesn’t have much depth.

This week, however, we talk about one of the deeper positions in baseball. Today we unveil the 2023 Top Keepers – Shortstops edition.

Unlike second base, the shortstop position is populated with highly skilled athletes who can do it all – hit, hit for power, run and field.

The numbers shortstops are putting up support that statement, but so too does this simple fact: last season, 20 players (out of 30 MLB teams) played 100 or more games at short. Another two (Kyle Farmer and Bobby Witt Jr.) appeared in 98 games at the position while a third, Tim Anderson, missed half the season due to injuries. Then there is Fernando Tatis Jr., who we all know missed the entire year.

Unless a team is rebuilding or just doesn’t have a good player at short, it is a spot on the field where managers want to have the same player every day. And more often than not, those players are not glove-first players. Today’s shortstops are expected to hit.

What is Your Preference?

The goal, both in real life and in fantasy, is to get the great all-around shortstop. But if you want to use a utility slot or middle infield slot to boost a specific stat, this is a great position to pick a player from.

Want speed? Ten shortstops stole 20 or more bags this past season. Need power? There were 15 shortstops who walloped 15 or more homers. What about help with your average or on-base percentage? Eight shortstops in these rankings hit .290 or better and another 11 had an OBP over .330.

If your team has a specific need, a number of shortstops would be great keepers. Now, let’s dive in and take a look at the 2023 Top Keepers – Shortstops rankings.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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Last year, Vaughn Grissom went 19/32/.320-ish. That’s “ish” because I didn’t feel like doing the math for batting average. Plus, it’s goofy and those aren’t really his stats. Well, they are, kinda. That’s his stats if you combine High-A, Double-A and MLB numbers. Slightly misleading, but *thinking* Is it misleading? Okay, the major leagues aren’t High-A. I get that, but, and here’s when I say anything very controversial: For hitters, are they that different, when a guy is only 21 years old? If a guy is 28 years old in High-A, then his stats mean nothing. But if a guy is 21 years old, then what’s the difference where he’s playing if he can hit in the majors? Once a guy shows he can hit in the majors, then it validates everything that came before, when he’s young. I keep doing that caveat, because it is very important. A guy who is 30 years old hitting well in the minors may or may not transfer to the majors *cough* Joey Meneses *cough*. A guy, who is 21 tearing the ball up in the minors, is just good no matter where he’s going to play. You see it in all the future stars. It’s not the only path. A guy can struggle, then find something that clicks. But when it clicks that early anywhere in pro ball, he’s has got a high ceiling. That the Braves don’t seem to want to bring back Dansby Swanson implies they know it too. I’m only surprised they haven’t yet locked up Vaughn Grissom in a 12-year, 19-million dollar type deal. So, what can we expect from Vaughn Grissom for 2023 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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Usually not a “Yankees game watcher” but I became a “Yankees game watcher” over the last six weeks of the season, because of the Aaron Judge home run chase, and then the playoffs, so by being a “Yankees game watcher” I became an “Oswaldo Cabrera watcher,” and, as I became an “Oswaldo Cabrera watcher,” I became an “Oswaldo Cabrera believer,” then, slowly, without even trying, against my better judgment, side thought separated by commas, I became an “Oswaldo Cabrera enjoyer.” As an “Oswaldo Cabrera enjoyer,” I’ve been impressed with his outfield defense, his poise in the box against some of the toughest pitchers, and his power and speed. An “Oswaldo Cabrera enjoyer” isn’t something I expected myself to become, but an “Oswaldo Cabrera enjoyer” I am. Quiz me on him, and you’ll see. Any question you have about “Oswaldo Cabrera” I can prove my “Oswaldo Cabrera enjoyer”-ness with just a flick of the finger, as I scroll the Google. Funnily enough, as an “Oswaldo Cabrera enjoyer,” you don’t get that title by just enjoying Oswaldo Cabrera, you have to enjoy him even while he’s not hitting incredibly well. His stats from last year 6/3/.247; 25.7% strikeout rate aren’t bad, but they’re not exactly affixing a match to the bottom of the earth and setting the world ablaze. Then again, I toyed with the autobiography title “IQ of 70” so what do I know? So, what can we expect from Oswaldo Cabrera for 2023 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Psyche! Before we get into the Oswaldo Cabrera sleeper post, just wanted to announce that I’ve begun to roll out my 2023 fantasy baseball rankings on our Patreon. It’s an early Hanukkah miracle! Or late Hanukah miracle, depending on when Hanukkah is this year. The Jews should really decide on one day to start Hanukah each year, and stick with it. It’s better for branding. Anyway II, the Oswaldo Cabrera sleeper:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Despite trading away everything from last year’s top prospect group, AJ Preller’s cupboards are not bare. He won’t have the talent to make moves for Juan Soto or Josh Hader this summer, but Preller himself is an elite scout who has little trouble adding new waves of gifted young players every year. It’s a skill that builds itself out across time. Preller probably had good vision for the game as a young person, but as a long-time executive who makes more trips to the field than anybody, his eye has been honed the hard way: 10,000 hours at a time. Malcolm Gladwell, eat your heart out. 

One way you know Preller is good is James Wood. Another is Jarlin Susana. How anyone else looked at these guys and said “meh, no thanks” is beyond me, but it’s a complicated game. You can’t just target giants and hope to thrive, but if you do see a giant who happens to move like a meta-human, trust your eyes and run, don’t walk, to add them to your squad. 

This trust-your-eyes talent likely provides him an edge in building a scouting department, too. Talent or skill in a craft doesn’t always equate to skill at teaching that ability, but it’s certainly better than being clueless about scouting and then interfacing with a scouting director. All this is to say I spend a lot of time watching young Padres squads and give the team all the minutes I can find before publication day. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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Almost didn’t write this fantasy baseball sleeper post. Not because I don’t like Rowdy Tellez. I like him a lot. I almost didn’t write it because I had written a fantasy baseball sleeper for Rowdy Tellez two years ago and I didn’t really want to go back to the same well, like a shook Baby M. After a good think on the subject, and, after meeting with my spiritual advisors (my dog, Ted), I realized I wasn’t writing Rowdy Tellez sleeper because of him, but because of me, which shouldn’t be a reason to not write a sleeper post. If I need to write a Rowdy Tellez sleeper post every year, then so help me I will write a Rowdy Tellez sleeper every year. Nay, as Fonzie’s horse would say, I will write a Rowdy Tellez sleeper post every day. This will be the winter of Rowdy Tellez sleepers. I, Grey Albright, will make one promise to you in my role as your Fantasy Master Lothario (don’t abbrievate), and that’s to write a Rowdy Tellez sleeper post every day for the rest of my life, if you agree to read it. You don’t agree to read more than one Rowdy Tellez sleeper? Oh, great, then this will be the only one. Also, one other reasons why I felt like I just had to write the Rowdy Tellez sleeper was because of how low he was being drafted and every time I looked up stats for another sleeper, I kept seeing Rowdy Tellez doing as well or better. So, what can we expect from Rowdy Tellez for 2023 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Psyche! Before we get into the Rowdy Tellez sleeper post, just wanted to announce that I’ve begun to roll out my 2023 fantasy baseball rankings on our Patreon. Also, I set up an NFBC league that starts drafting next Monday, but it’s a slow draft, so you don’t need to be by computer all day or anything. It’s a 15-team Draft Champions league, so 50 rounds, 4-hour per pick and no waivers. Draft and hold, as the kids say. If you want to draft against me, click this linkie-ma-whosie. Anyway II, the Rowdy Tellez sleeper:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

One thing you notice following the Dodgers’ prospects over the years is that they’re always on time. Some teams are slow to promote their players. Some teams are quick. Los Angeles is typically right on time.

 

1. 3B Miguel Vargas | 23 | MLB | 2022

Over the years, I’ve read a lot of reports that downplay the physicality Vargas brings to the game as a 6’3” 205 lb right handed hitter with baseball bloodlines. He’s not some contact-only, right-center slap-hitter and he’s not a mess on defense. He’s been underrated for a long time in prospect places, and he slashed just .170/.200/.255 in parts of 18 major league games. but his time is coming. The plate skills have always been elite. He’s struck out somewhere between 8.1 percent and 26 percent in all his extended stays: seven levels across four seasons. He’s settled in around 15 percent the past two seasons in Double-A and Triple-A. In 113 AAA games, he walked 71 times and struck out 75, slashing .304/.404/.511 with 17 home runs and 16 stolen bases. The team could bring Justin Turner back for another year or so, but that’s probably not the right play for where they’re at as an organization. They don’t need Turner to make the playoffs or probably even to win the division. Vargas turned 23 last week. There’s no reason for him to play any more minor league games.

Please, blog, may I have some more?