Yes, I could be referencing an old movie from the early 90’s, directed by the great Robert Redford and starring then a very young Brad Pitt, or I could be referencing the 1976 book the movie is based on. OR I could literally be describing Emmanuel Rivera‘s propensity to run through random objects. Walls, Jello, bushes, your mom, no limitations people. While one might wonder why not all three, I’m here to not just date myself (I guess both meanings might work here), but also wonder why a career 261/316/408 hitter is currently outputting a 356/391/471 triple-slash. And while we can save time and just go ahead and say that Rivera’s numbers will regress, there’s a chance here where the regression might not actually bring him back to his 2022 numbers where he struggled with a .233/.292/.409 line over 359 plate appearances. Landing in the middle is actually a useful hitter, but how does he get there and what are the chances he does, and furthermore, what type of object will he run through this time? All meaningful questions that deserve answers that I hope will be meaningful! (Honesty, a good policy.)
Back in 2021 when Bobby Witt Jr. was confirming his status as a top prospect in the Royals farm system, there were a few other, say, lesser-known players who also enjoyed breakouts throughout their affiliates. And of course, of those players was one Emmanual Rivera. The then 24-year-old wasn’t ranked inside the top-30 by a lot of platforms, and that was mainly driven by the fact that he hadn’t had great results at the plate in his first two years in the minors and didn’t really show any flashes of contact or power consistently until 2019, nearly four years after he had been drafted. And the skill that matured the most just happened to be Rivera’s consistency, leading Omaha that season in homeruns, batting average, and OPS.
But fast-forward to 2022 and a team switch over to the D’backs, Rivera soon began to struggle and ended the year with the aforementioned slash above, with just 12 homeruns and an astounding 23.1 K% versus his 6.4 BB%, it’s pretty clear that he was overpowered at the plate and his entire approach suffered. Of course, now that we’ve had 32 games in 2023, Rivera is basically doing everything opposite of what he did last season. His K% has nearly been cut in half, down to 12.7, fueling a .391 OBP and .862 OPS, both career-highs thus far. Obviously, the improved plate discipline across the board is a catalyst for what we’re seeing, but how sustainable is it?
I would say somewhat! It’s a bit meandering, I’ll give that to you, but the changes in his profile are exactly where you want them to be in terms of a hitter who is improving and in the process of landing at their true talent. That’s a long way of saying that Rivera is swinging less overall but swinging more at pitches inside the strike zone and ultimately making more contact on those pitches. Because he’s been more aggressive with pitches in the zone, his contact has shot up from 76.5% in 2022 to 84.5% as of this writing. Just to drive the point home, his swings on pitches outside the strike zone? That has gone down from 28.2% in 2022 to now 21.7%. Both his judgment and selection have been nominal.
Not for nothing, but there is also some added power potential. While he’s not your prototypical slugger, his HardHit% (52.2%), improving Launch Angle, and improving spray profile (sounds like my love life) lead me to believe that 15 homeruns could be possible. Granted, he just has one so far this year in just 110 PAs, but in just 359 last year, he was able to hit 12.
Do the projection systems agree? Not really… but they don’t project a total collapse and I think there’s enough room here to expect perhaps a better outlook. Steamer’s ROS for Rivera projects regression at a 260/312/414 slash, but this is only for 166 more PAs, which I think is negotiable. Something we hadn’t mentioned of course is playing time, and it looks like Rivera might actually be solidifying his spot in the top-half of the lineup, now even receiving playing time at first base.
Despite the regression, we know that’s coming, I like Rivera’s approach, and with more playing time, will continue to solidify himself as an above-average hitter. So if we’re going to pick one thing that Rivera should run through, let’s just say I wouldn’t mind if it’s our expectations. SO DEEP BRO.
Jay is a longtime Razzball everything who consumes an egregious amount of Makers Mark as a vehicle to gain wisdom and augment his natural glow. Living in the D.C. area, he also likes spending time visiting the local parks and feeding lettuce to any turtles he encounters, including Mitch McConnell.
