Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2023: Week 11

Happy June, folx! I’m heading into the second stretch of the season with a bit more blurby-type approach, similar to your other favorite writers like The Itch and Chuck Palahniuk. I mentioned this early in the year as well, but I’ll repeat it here for good measure: I’m only responding to comments on the day of publication now. I love y’all, but I need to carve out some time for the people I call “family” instead of “folx.” I talk to Coolwhip and JKJ literally everyday and they have access to my data. If you haven’t said “hey” to them, give them a shout.

Jacob deGrom is finally off to Dr. Freeze for Tommy John surgery. I see so many fishwraps calling it “season-ending” but really, it’s like 3 seasons. Blame the historian in me! DeGrom first encountered problems in 2021, and was shut down until mid-season 2022. One season lost. 2023: lost to the initial surgery. 2024? Come on, fishwrappers. Recovery time from Tommy John for pitchers is like 18 months at best. If deGrom returned on day 365 — 12 full months — that would be the middle of 2024. I’m not buying that. More likely timetable is that Jacob deGrom returns in 2025. He’ll follow a Justin Verlander-like narrative of “can he be an effective starter to close out his career.”

So what should fantasy managers do about deGrom? I’m not victory lapping an injury, but I’ve been telling y’all to avoid deGrom since 2021. Zac Gallen’s rehab from a sprained UCL is the exception, not the norm. Almost everybody else ends up under the knife. 12-teamers can obviously let deGrom go, and y’all don’t need to think about drafting him next year. For dynasty managers, a fire sale is in order. Take what you can get while his name still has value. On the plus side, having 18 months of recovery time will allow deGrom to have the greatest parental leave, and his newly arrived kiddo will be big enough to sit in their own seat when they see dad play again in late 2024/early 2025.

Alek Manoah got sent down to the Blue Jays’ “Florida Complex,” where he’ll spend time with the “Pitching Lab.” It’s a polite way to tell Manoah: “we’re sending you down on a plane, and unless you want to ride a bus the rest of the summer, figure it out.” Drop Manoah in all yearly formats.

Sean Manaea has become an elite Roleless Rob since his demotion to the bullpen. Since May 17, he’s tossed 20 IP with a 26:4 K:BB ratio and a 2.29 ERA with an even better 2.05 FIP. His WHIP over that timeframe is a miniscule 0.86, and his swinging strike rate has been pretty tolerable at 11.3%. He’s available in all formats (91% of leagues!) and has a useful track record of fantasy performance. With the Giants’ rotation being filled with guys like Alex Cobb, Disco, Alex Wood, and Ross Stripling, it’s really a matter of moments until Manaea gets a rotation spot back. If his return to the front five is anything like his current trend, he’ll be a stud for the remainder of the season. Add in RCLs for the IP efficiency, and speculative add in 12-teamers for his potential.

Chris Sale got some clarity on his shoulder soreness, and unfortunately, that clarity is that he’ll be out until at least August 2, 2023. There’s no guarantee that Sale will be healthy at that point — sounds like he’ll be shut down from baseball activities for close to a month. If you have the IL space in redraft, keep him on the roster. If you’re overloaded on players, I’d risk cutting Sale and going with another pitcher.

Speaking of avoiding surgery, Dustin May has received his plasma rich platelet injections and hasn’t touched a baseball. He’s eligible to return in late July, but the Dodgers are saying that they hope May avoids surgery. You know which surgery that is? Look up at deGrom and his attempt to avoid Dr. Freeze. Redraft managers can drop May. Dynasty managers? Phew, tough one. You’ve at least got the dynasty IL, but if May undergoes his second Tommy John (or, similar surgery) in 3 years, the hopes are very low for a meaningful recovery. I’d sell Dustin May in dynasty if possible — his upside isn’t the best, and the Dodgers would be apt to move on from May if he returns at age 27 with two arm surgeries to his name. That sounds like a resume more likely to end up on the Angels than the Dodgers.

Rankings

Tier	Name	Team	Confidence	Own%	L30$/G
1	Kevin Gausman	TOR	4.546	100	40.9
1	Spencer Strider	ATL	4.401	100	-0.3
1	Shohei Ohtani	LAA	3.998	100	-8.3
1	Hunter Greene	CIN	3.781	100	-0.9
1	Zac Gallen	ARI	3.488	100	-8.8
1	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	3.447	100	12.6
1	Luis Castillo	SEA	3.429	100	14.7
1	Joe Ryan	MIN	3.400	100	5.5
1	Kodai Senga	NYM	3.375	100	4.3
1	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	3.328	100	47.4
1	Zack Wheeler	PHI	3.328	100	4.9
1	Logan Gilbert	SEA	3.314	100	20.1
1	Framber Valdez	HOU	3.301	100	23.8
1	Mitch Keller	PIT	3.235	100	2.9
2	Sonny Gray	MIN	3.198	100	-18.4
2	Sean Manaea	SF	3.107	9	-7.8
2	Shane McClanahan	TB	3.083	100	11.4
2	Pablo Lopez	MIN	3.045	100	-11.8
2	Logan Webb	SF	3.040	100	10.2
2	Jesus Luzardo	MIA	3.031	100	10.2
2	Merrill Kelly	ARI	2.987	100	33.2
2	Gerrit Cole	NYY	2.977	100	-8.2
2	Cristian Javier	HOU	2.927	100	27.7
2	Marcus Stroman	CHC	2.897	100	28.7
2	Edward Cabrera	MIA	2.887	100	10.2
2	Yu Darvish	SD	2.868	100	-5.2
2	George Kirby	SEA	2.789	100	-18.5
2	Alex Cobb	SF	2.779	100	-8.1
2	Reid Detmers	LAA	2.775	97	-19.1
2	Corbin Burnes	MIL	2.742	100	15.7
2	Max Scherzer	NYM	2.742	100	31
2	Aaron Nola	PHI	2.727	100	1.8
2	Jon Gray	TEX	2.689	100	63.4
2	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	2.675	100	-14.2
2	Jose Berrios	TOR	2.664	100	11.7
2	Lucas Giolito	CHW	2.663	100	2.2
2	Dylan Cease	CHW	2.640	100	-0.1
2	Eduardo Rodriguez	DET	2.632	58	1
2	Charlie Morton	ATL	2.615	100	-16.4
2	Zach Eflin	TB	2.602	100	35
2	Jordan Montgomery	STL	2.583	97	-23.3
2	Kyle Bradish	BAL	2.549	94	-2.8
2	Justin Steele	CHC	2.522	97	-15
2	Chris Bassitt	TOR	2.512	100	31.5
2	Michael Kopech	CHW	2.493	100	32.6
2	Miles Mikolas	STL	2.450	99	12.9
2	Jack Flaherty	STL	2.409	98	10.7
2	Michael Wacha	SD	2.407	99	44.3
3	Shane Bieber	CLE	2.374	100	-35.8
3	Kyle Gibson	BAL	2.369	92	7.9
3	Andrew Heaney	TEX	2.366	97	4.1
3	Nick Martinez	SD	2.351	5	-20.5
3	Tanner Bibee	CLE	2.348	100	10
3	Zack Greinke	KC	2.329	2	-2.3
3	Blake Snell	SD	2.319	100	-2.1
3	MacKenzie Gore	WSH	2.271	100	-21.1
3	Matthew Boyd	DET	2.267	20	-27.9
3	Domingo German	NYY	2.252	98	11.2
3	Carlos Hernandez	KC	2.210	0	-2
3	Matt Strahm	PHI	2.205	17	-14
3	Logan Allen	CLE	2.197	100	-10
3	Nick Pivetta	BOS	2.175	3	-16
3	Lance Lynn	CHW	2.175	94	-26
3	Patrick Sandoval	LAA	2.174	89	-46
3	Drew Smyly	CHC	2.170	91	-10.5
3	John Brebbia	SF	2.150	0	0.2
3	Josiah Gray	WSH	2.139	84	-10.9
3	Michael Lorenzen	DET	2.104	82	7.8
3	Kyle Freeland	COL	2.093	13	-24.2
3	Brady Singer	KC	2.090	63	-16.6
3	Ian Hamilton	NYY	2.080	1	-7.4
3	Dean Kremer	BAL	2.059	27	-2.6