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Willy Adames, 2022 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

December 14, 2021 | Fantasy Baseball Sleepers | 29 Comments

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So, the Steamer projections are out. They’re not done yet. Well, they’re done, as in Steamer is done with theirs, but our projections are not done yet. Our projections take Steamer projections and alter them with Rudy’s special sauce. That’s why you’ll see analysis of baseball projections and see stuff like Steamer and Steamer/Razzball projections. Here’s Jeff Zimmerman of FanGraphs doing analysis of preseason projections from the past year. To quote him, “Continuing a theme from the early season pitcher projections, Razzball absolutely crushed the innings and strikeout projections.” *Rudy does a curtsy.* Technically, when people say Steamer projections, they don’t mean Steamer projections either. They mean FanGraphs/Steamer or Razzball/Steamer. Steamer doesn’t do playing time, so there’s no such thing as, “Steamer projected Brandon Woodruff for 203 IP.” FanGraphs or Razzball might’ve projected someone for that, but not Steamer; they give rates. I bring this up, because Steamer/FanGraphs (based off their depth charts) gives Willy Adames 23/7/.252 in 143 games. (That essentially means if he saw 200 games, he’d get 32 homers.) Just to catch everyone up, this past year Willy Adames went 25/5/.262 in 140 games (497 ABs), so Steamer is basically expecting him to repeat the same year, minus two homers and some average. Last preseason, Steamer/Razzball gave him 17/7/.245, after he was coming off a 8/2/.259 season in 54 games. Lot of numbers there, but I guess my point is this: Preseason projections are great, ours are real and spectacular, but — and this is a J. Lo-sized but — projections stay close to the vest and follow a guy’s career path. If Adames had hit 17 homers this past year, he wouldn’t be projected for 24, and if he hit 35 homers, he’d be projected for more. These sleeper posts are meant to find the guys who are going to exceed their projections, which is why these guys are riskier, but also where you’re going to make it *rains dollar bills.* Turn your umbrella upside down so you can collect these dollar bills, which are still worth about .0000000000000000000000001 of a Bitcoin. So, what can we expect from Willy Adames for 2022 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Psyche! Before we get into the Willy Adames sleeper post, just wanted to announce that I’ve begun to roll out my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings on our Patreon. It’s an early Xmas miracle! Like The Power of the Dog. It’s on Netflix, and it was dope; you should watch. Anyway II, the Willy Adames sleeper:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Brandon Marsh, 2022 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

December 13, 2021 | Fantasy Baseball Sleepers | 16 Comments

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This is the 2nd Angels outfielder that I’ve pegged as a 2022 fantasy baseball sleeper. What’s the chances that comes to fruition? Zero? Can you do negative odds? Last year I pegged Jared Walsh as a sleeper, and he broke out. This year I like two. What can I tell you, I’m a dumb man. At least I think Luis Rengifo is still very terrible. Having Mike Trout (I think, he still plays, right?) and Shohei Ohtani in the lineup with Anthony Rendon (remember him? I legit forgot until I looked at their depth charts), David Fletcher, Jared Walsh, Stassi, Adell and Brandon Marsh shouldn’t be a layup for anyone. Their pitching still looks pretty raunchy, so don’t worry, it’s not like I’m picking the Angels to win the World Series. Above average hitting? Yeah, I’d think so. Unlike Jo Adell, or similar to Jo Adell, depending on how poorly that works out for me, Brandon Marsh might have playing time issues. Assuming Mike Trout is healthy (HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA), there’s two outfielder spots for Adell, Marsh, Phil Gosselin and Justin Upton. Clearly, I think Adell and Marsh are easily the lead candidates for the last two spots, but other guys have to get some at-bats, and benching the lefty Marsh against lefties does make some sense. It’s not ideal, but there’s plenty of other reasons to like Marsh, besides always knowing where the stash is:

So, what can we expect from Brandon Marsh for 2022 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Psyche! Before we get into the Brandon Marsh sleeper post, just wanted to announce that I’ve begun to roll out my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings on our Patreon. It’s an early Xmas miracle! Like this new deodorant that I invented that smells like sweat. Investors? Anyone? Anyway II, the Brandon Marsh sleeper:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Jo Adell, 2022 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

December 10, 2021 | Fantasy Baseball Sleepers | 44 Comments

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He was drafted in 2017. Snooze, what’s taking so long for Jo Adell? Wait a second, he’s still only going to be 22 years old when the 2022 season starts? Assuming it starts. It’ll start. Right? Riiiiiiiiight? Eight I’s!? Whoa, that’s a lot of I’s and Jo Adell is still pretty young. I have gotchies older. Of course, those gotchies are in a framed-glass case behind my desk for my Zoom calls. It’s a move to impress people. It’s failed to do so just yet. Okay, recapping non-underwear news! Jo Adell went 27/10 across two levels this past year, Triple-A and the majors. He hit .289/.342/.592 in Triple-A, then came up and hit .246/.295/.408 in the majors. This was in 441 total ABs (130 in the majors). His final 17 games in the majors: 3/1 and .302/.343/.524 when he hit in 14 of the final 17 games. Because MLB hates baseball fans to see games in their geographic region, I had to search to some Jo Adell home run clips, wanna see them? Of course, you do!

He hit that so easily I’m picking the bottom of my jaw off the floor. Let’s see another the other way:

I don’t want to say anything stupid, but he kinda reminds me of Fun Tatis Jr., due to the ease the ball jumps out. Everyone in the organization was impressed with the gains Jo Adell made. Might say Maddon was singing Adell’s praises, saying he set fiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiire to the raaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaain. That’s a direct quote, but they were karaoking at the time. But was this a true fix or a small sample masquerading as a big sample with a monthly subscription to Get Roman? So, what can we expect from Jo Adell for 2022 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Alex Kirilloff, 2022 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

December 9, 2021 | Fantasy Baseball Sleepers | 18 Comments

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I call this year’s fantasy baseball sleepers,”Rookies that failed to impress last year.” Okay, not all, but Alex Kirilloff is clearly in the same boat as Jarred Kelenic and Andrew Vaughn. By the by, before we start, I can’t properly express how much I must like Alex Kirilloff, because spelling his last name over and over again is like trying to pat my head and rub my stomach at the same time. Double L, double F, double R–Damn! There’s no double R! I patted my stomach and rubbed my head, didn’t I? Try again! Okay, double K–ugh, out already. All right, first up, what did he do last year? Not much! Moving on! Okay, fine: 8/1/.251 in 215 ABs. Not fair to put that all at the feet of Kirilloff or his inexperience or nerves or whatever you want to put at his feet — how about a cape so he can walk over puddles? Put that at his feet! Sorry, I lost it for a second. You can’t blame Kkiirriillooff because he was injured in May, and needed wrist surgery in July. There was talk about him returning at the end of the season. Not much talk of it, but some light speculation. I only mention that to say, if he almost returned at the tail end of last year, he should be fully healed by the time we get to March. That’s also the biggest caveat here. Wrist surgery for a hitter isn’t ideal, but he’s young (23 at time of surgery, 24 now) and should be able to heal in a reasonable amount of time. So, what can we expect from Alex Kirilloff for 2022 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Andrew Vaughn, 2022 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

December 7, 2021 | Fantasy Baseball Sleepers | 20 Comments

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What fun is writing up fantasy baseball sleepers if they’re all obvious. Sure, I could write up a fantasy baseball sleeper for Ketel Marte, but what fun is that? Just because he could return to a 25-homer, .320 hitter? Am I sneakily writing a Ketel Marte sleeper post right under your nose without you realizing it? No, I’m not sneaky. Are you implying I am because I’m half-Jewish. That’s anti-Semitic, and not cool. Luckily, my people run the media, so we can erase all of this later when it ages really poorly. Andrew Vaughn is the not-so-obvious sleeper. In 127 games and 417 ABs, Vaughn went 15/1/.235 with a 9.7 Launch Angle and 36.1% fly ball rate. How do I put this in the most disrespectful way possible? Andrew Vaughn sucked last year. If you abbreviate Andrew Vaughn as AV and talk about him clubbing for power, well, it would be like AV Club reviewing a film where a large man shudders, exiting a lukewarm bath in Iceland. Not great stuff! That’s what makes Andrew Vaughn a not-so-obvious sleeper, which is better for us. So, what can we expect from Andrew Vaughn for 2022 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Jarred Kelenic, 2022 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

December 6, 2021 | Fantasy Baseball Sleepers | 16 Comments

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Promise you all of my 2022 fantasy baseball sleepers won’t be “very hyped rookie who failed to live up to hype and is now priced well in drafts.” Though, how about that Brett Lawrie?! No, seriously…But what about Ian Happ?! C’mon! He had a good 2nd half. Okay, gonna stop there, since I might actually write an Ian Happ sleeper post for the fifth year in a row. So, I was looking at the top xwOBAs, which is a ton of letters to understand — yo, xwOBAs, who do you think you are, SAGNOF? — and I was sorting by who should be better in 2022 and Jarred Kelenic was in no way near the top of that (213th out of 328). Then I looked at Jarred Kelenic’s xBA and it was .215, and I started to hold my nose like I smelt a fart that was trapped under a dead body. Then I looked at his average exit velocity and that was hideous (87.5 MPH) and I began to think maybe I shouldn’t bother with the Jarred Kelenic sleeper post. There was always Ian Happ, amiright? But I can’t give up on Jarred Kelenic, not that quickly, not yet. Sure, he had the same expected stats as Alcides Escobar, but he can’t be that bad, can he? Well, he was, but will he be? That’s the real question, or this one: So, what can we expect from Jarred Kelenic for 2022 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Jesus Sanchez, 2022 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

December 3, 2021 | Fantasy Baseball Sleepers | 49 Comments

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Went back and searched my posts for every mention of the word “sleeper” until the All-Star Break. So, if I said, “(player’s name) was going to be a 2022 fantasy baseball sleeper,” I made note of it with a slash. By the time, I was done, well, put the Jesus Sanchez slashes on a tree, and it would look like Tom Hanks in Castaway. It was like this over the last few months of the season, “I gotta write a 2022 fantasy baseball sleeper for Jesus Sanchez,” “How long until I can write a 2022 fantasy baseball sleeper for Jesus Sanchez?” “Have I written a Jesus Sanchez 2022 fantasy baseball sleeper or have I just mentioned it so much that it feels like I’ve written it already?” By the time I was done searching three months of daily roundups, it felt like Jesus Sanchez wasn’t a 2022 fantasy baseball sleeper anymore, but ya know what? Eff that, bros, four sisters and one sista! I’m highlighting this em-effer!

So, guess what, snitches? We’re done with the fantasy baseball rookies and onto the 2022 fantasy baseball sleepers! Can I get a what-WHAT?! No, the 2nd “what” is louder, not from the standing position. That’s what caps mean:  louder. You thought caps meant it was said while wearing a baseball cap? You have a malfunctioning brain. Okay, forget it! I’m moving on! Across two levels of baseball last year, Jesus Sanchez went 24/1 with a .348 average in Triple-A (37 games) and a .251 average in the majors (64 games). I separated the averages for the two levels rather than average the, uh, averages together because:  I’m lazy. Okay, also, because Triple-A was an insanely high BABIP and he’s not a .348 hitter. If you were to combine his Triple-A and majors numbers, I’d say he went 24/1/.251. That’s what he’s closer to. Well, that and God himself! Jesus, take the steering wheel! Nah, seriously, I need both hands to try to dig around for this last boba in my drink. *tires screech, car flies off a cliff* So, what can we expect from Jesus Sanchez for 2022 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Psyche! Before we get into the Jesus Sanchez sleeper post, just wanted to announce that I’ve begun to roll out my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings on our Patreon. It’s an early Hannukah miracle! Well, late Hanukah miracle this year. The Jews should really decide on one day to start Hanukah each year, and stick with it. It’s better for branding. Anyway II, the Jesus Sanchez sleeper:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Tigers Hoping They Don’t Javy Baez Remorse

December 2, 2021 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 62 Comments

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Figured if I heard the first part of the sentence, “Finally, the Tigers went out and got their man,” it would be followed by a story about how a few tigers dressed up as humans, went to visiting hours at Joe Exotic’s jail and ate him. It didn’t mean that, but if the Tigers sign Carole Baskin, the Pirates will trade Bryan Reynolds to the Tigers for her. So, the Tigers signed Javier Baez, and I love it. Tigers are sneakily becoming my “Pick it to stick it!” Which translates to a team I put hundred schmools on to win the World Series, and they just miss the playoffs. Javier Baez is defined, for better or worse, for his lack of walks — wacks? Hey, that’s actually pretty good. “Baez is too reliant on wacks to be a reliable batting average guy.” Wacks seems to give off a negative connotation in the mind of fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term!). If you’re in an OBP league, then I get it, but I’m not talking about OBP when I say Baez is continually underrated, which, brucely, is one of the weirder peccadillos in fantasy. By the way, never say “peccadillo” aloud because that would give someone the right to punch you in the nose. I say it’s weird because Baez is exactly the type that most love more than is deserved in real baseball. It’s truly bizarre. Real baseball people love Baez, even though he is a liability with his wacks, but, for fantasy, he’s underrated. I see Baez and want to “wacks” poetic. Comerica isn’t particularly fun-loving, so Baez has gone from Friendly Confines for power to neutral in Metco to a team whose player most synonymous with home runs was Matthew Boyd. Still, a guy who averages 27/15/.265 has my attention, and I’m ready to get my Baezian wacks. For 2022, I’ll give Javier Baez projections of 84/25/91/.257/14 in 541 ABs. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for fantasy baseball:

Psyche! Promise you sleepers are starting tomorrow, unless there’s some other big signing during the lockout, which is illegal, but what are legalities except illegalities that wear frilly shirts. Also, I’ve begun to roll out my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings on our Patreon. Anyway II, the roundup:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

New York Mets Sign A Massive 3-Year Lease In New Scherzy

November 30, 2021 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes, Featured | 49 Comments

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Once again a New York team makes a huge free agency splash. The big news from yesterday in free agency was Jose Peraza signing with the Yankees. With the loss of Tyler Wade, the Yankees could not afford to go into the season with Gio Urshela at short without an All-Star caliber shortstop backup. At the press conference, Brian Cashman stepped up to the mic and misquoted Jay-Z, saying, “I’m not a cash man, I’m a Cashman.” Reporters’ hands shot up to ask questions, and Cashman called on one in the front row, who asked, “Is it true you signed Jose Peraza because of his ability to do a well-choreographed handshake in the dugout after someone else does something good?” Cashman screamed, “NO MORE QUESTIONS!” and ran off the stage. Then a title comes on the screen that reads, “Three weeks ago…”

This is the opening to my Freaky Friday-like role reversal movie where the Yankees become the Mets and Vice Versa, another great role reversal film. The Mets as the Yankees are Fred Savage and Lindsay Lohan in this equation. Mets signed Max Scherzer, while the Yankees’ fans watched Jose Peraza do a really cool handshake. “Yanks gonna bring back Clint Frazier on a minor league deal and trade him for Max Scherzer, right? Right?!” That’s Twitter user, BingBong27rings. Anyway, Max Scherzer for 2022 fantasy baseball and other free agency news:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Canha Met Brother Get A Marte-F’in Break?

November 29, 2021 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 60 Comments

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Welp, we were supposed to start our fantasy baseball sleepers today, but there was some movement before the lockout. *looks in the toilet* “Hey, we got movement!” By the way, for those of you who didn’t hear my thoughts on the impending lockout, you can listen to the last episode of our fantasy baseball podcast. Basically, I expect them to go to their separate corners. Owners will cry poor; players will cry that the owners are crying poor, which will be accurate, and then they’ll come back. My guess is we lose about a week of the season and gain the NL DH. It will seem dire, because a lot of reporters are on team payrolls and they’re paid to make it seem dire. It won’t be as dire as it seems, unless we get to May and still no baseball. Bright side of that would be Acuña will be ready for Opening Day. Lowercase yay! Any hoo! We’ll start the sleepers as soon as teams stop signing big free agents — we (I) did start my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings on our Patreon, by the by.

The Mets went out and got Mark Canha and Starling Marte, as they remade their outfield. The A’s did their best to change their culture, club wasn’t working around players like Canha and Kaprelian but those windows of opportunity come and go. They come and go. Boy, Jorge Soler would fit nicely there. The best thing about the addition of Mark Canha and Starling Marte is they push Dominic Smith and Jeff McNeil to the bench-slash-platoon-Slash-Axl. Remember when there were people who thought some random 60-game stretch of Dom Smith meant he was good? Haha, those people were almost as dumb as the people who drafted Cody Bellinger last year. Hey, wait, that’s me! Jeff McNeil actually pulled the wool over our eyes in a full season, but he was never really good either. On a related note, the Mets cornered the market on Micks who hit weak grounders. Between McCann and McNeil, they hit about as hard as the IRA, if the Irish Republican Army was modeled after everything they read about IRAs on Charles Schwab. Any hoo! Canha should fit perfectly in with the Mets, because Mets’ fans need a good sense of humor so Canha helps. Can’t really be a laughingstock without a Starling ability to Canha. Canha’s 20.5% strikeout rate with a .231 average is a little bit of a concern. Couple that with his .274 and solid speed paints a picture of a guy who makes weak contact. McCann, McNeil and now M.C. are gonna bloop other teams to death. Seriously, Canha’s peripherals indicate some pretty weak contact, and backing that up was the 35th worst Hard Contact% in the league. His Launch Angle came down a little, which was prolly better for him, as it led to a few less weak fly balls, even if they’re more like weak bloopers to the 2nd baseman. For 2022, I’ll give Mark Canha projections of 73/21/64/.239/10 in 571 ABs.

That was the longest Mark Canha breakdown ever, because it was really just a giant stall for me, before tackling Starling Marte. A 33-year-old who just matched his career high at 47 steals. That’s not even taking into account the very real evil eye the universe gives to all players who sign with the Mets. Ugh. I promised myself that I wouldn’t be an ageist anymore. I wouldn’t write off players just because they’re old, but I sorted by all the players who were 33 years old who stole 47 bags or more, and there were 21 seasons of them since 1914 with 13 players. Seven of those were Lou Brock and Rickey Henderson. Guess what I’m saying is, after much deliberation about not worrying about a player’s age in regards to steals, I am still doing exactly that. Marte also had a .372 BABIP. It’s too simplistic to say the Mets just got had. Not as simplistic as saying a guy is old and his BABIP was high, but do you see why I was stalling? In the end, here’s the thing, there’s so many players to choose from, that you don’t have to be right or wrong on some guys, you can just ignore them, and that’s what I think I’m gonna be doing with Starling Marte. As far as his lineup slot, I will say the Mets have more number twos than a public toilet. If I were the Mets manager, and the Mets had a manager, I’d start the lineup Marte, Canha, Lindor, Alonso, but where are you finding Nimmo a spot? Maybe a trade with Miami, since he’s a fish at heart. For 2022, I’ll give Starling Marte projections of 89/19/61/.277/32 in 534 ABs. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2022 fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Jeremy Pena, 2022 Fantasy Outlook

November 26, 2021 | Fantasy Baseball Rookies | 15 Comments

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And thus ends our 2022 fantasy baseball rookies series. Next up, sleepers. You can hardly wait! No, you! Hope you enjoyed our 2022 fantasy baseball rookies series. It was brought to you by me! And The Bachelorette. Kidding on the last part, but I’m obviously a huge Bachelorette fan now that one of our own was on the show. In case you missed it when I said something a month ago:

I have the show DVR’d and haven’t watched. From what I understand, there’s not much to watch as Tehol gets three minutes of airtime across three weeks, then is booted. Shame, because a bunch of people trying to find fake love sounds great to me. It’s what I do every year when I draft a fantasy team. Any hoo! There’s a few different types of fantasy baseball rookies. My goal is to give you all the types you’re going to encounter, except, let’s be honest, most of them are high upside bingo-bangos, and high upside bingo-bangos might be a year away from being high upside bingo-bangos. Then there’s just steady producers. Jeremy Pena might fit into both categories. How he could be a high upside bingo-bangos: Jeremy Pena just came off one of the hottest months of September in minor league baseball: 22/10/19/.287/5. That’s in 30 games. He was coming off wrist surgery, but that doesn’t seem to be an issue at all, right? Rhetorical! He hit three homers in one game, turned around and almost hit for the cycle in the next game. His 2020 was lost (with all minor leaguers), then he missed five months with the wrist, so it’s here where the bingo-bangoes become hard to account for. Is Jeremy as good as his September or he’s simply old for Triple-A and ripping it up? Here’s Jeremy Pena’s first and second homer during the three-homer game. Think about your takeaways, then I will give you mine:

So, what can we expect from Jeremy Pena for 2022 fantasy baseball?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Vidal Brujan, 2022 Fantasy Outlook

November 23, 2021 | Fantasy Baseball Rookies | 27 Comments

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I forgot I included Vidal Brujan in my top 100 2nd half rankings, and, honestly, that made me laugh a lot. Hey, he sucked me in like he was Myles of Straw. No shame in that, I’d do it again if I had the chance. At the backend of the top 100 for the 2nd half, you gotta go risky ishkabibble vs. safe whose-he-whatsies. Vidal Brujan was called up right before the break last year, so I figured we were about to see a prince and I was the Kingmaker. I wasn’t even playing checkers, and still missed. C’est la vie, as Ty France says. It was kinda weird how the Rays played Brujan this year. Called him up out of seemingly nowhere, then they let him rot on the bench and demoted him almost as quickly as they promoted him. Though, this reminds me of what I said in my Shane Baz fantasy, the Rays have no problem promoting rookies, they just don’t retain them when they have to pay them. So, what can we expect from Vidal Brujan for 2022 fantasy baseball?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
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