Is there ever a bad time for a stash?
On one hand, three of the top four prospects graduated from my last stash list, so it’s not only a good time to post a new one, the posting of a new one feels essential to the purpose of this space on the internet.
On the other hand, the minor league tree of stashes looks a little picked over at the moment. It might replenish itself in a week or two if the Orioles can stay in the race or the Diamondbacks can rip off a Seattle-like string of victories, but right now, we’re waiting for some playing time to shake loose for most of the top guys to get their shot.
Graduated From Stash List Volume 4: Esteury Ruiz is Ready for His Close-Up:
Vinnie Pasquantino, Esteury Ruiz, Max Meyer, Nick Pratto.
1. Dodgers 3B Miguel Vargas (AAA) 22 years old
They’ve tried him everywhere except catcher, centerfield and shortstop, and who knows, maybe they’ve done that in practice. Once they let him in the lineup, he’ll be tough to get rid of. He’s not on the 40-man roster yet, and this front office is smart with those spots (shocking, I know), but I don’t think that’s a big impediment to Vargas.
2. Yankees SS Oswald Peraza (AAA) 22 years old
Isiah Kiner-Falefa is not hitting this year, and I can’t think of a good reason the club doesn’t make this switch yesterday. Peraza’s season-long numbers aren’t great, but he’s been hot for a while in Triple-A and seems like the better fit for a playoff run. Or heck, an audition before the trade deadline seems like a pretty sharp move, in case New York wants to make a big trade or two and flex that payroll advantage.
3. Orioles LHP DL Hall (AAA) 23 years old
Throwing fire in three July starts, striking out 48.4 percent of opposing hitters and posting a 0.84 WHIP and 0.57 ERA across 15.2 innings. His season line is a little more indicative of what we might see from Hall as a rookie: 3.83 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with 89 strikeouts in 54 innings. But these three July starts offer a flash of the upside. He’s a little like Robbie Ray in the sense that he’s so incredibly hard to hit that he just needs to be around the plate to be effective. When he’s in rhythm, he’ll be a fantasy force.
4. Detroit OF Kerry Carpenter (AAA) 24 years old
Carpenter is screaming hot in Triple-A, and Detroit needs all the hitting it can get. Thing is, I’m kind of frustrated with Detroit, as I’ve written about here, and I don’t trust that they’ll call him up simply because he looks ready and they need help.
5. St. Louis 1B OF Alec Burleson (AAA) 23 years old
Slashing .340/.383/.556 with 16 home runs and three stolen bases in 77 games, striking out in just 15.1 percent of his at bats. Burleson doesn’t put in the same sort of elite plate appearances against lefties, which gives the organization reason to keep him down. It’s a hard thing to learn for young left-handed hitters for all sorts of reasons, mostly outside of the actual human challenge itself. Good lefty arms race through the minors, so hitters don’t see a whole lot of elite stuff from the left side until the upper levels. Minor league managers don’t employ left-on-left pitching changes the same way major league managers will, preferring an inning-by-inning approach to aid development. Conversely, it’s more important for left handed pitchers in the low minors to face righties than lefties. If a team has an elite left handed relief arm in Triple-A, he won’t be there for long. Long story short, I’m not sure a hitter can learn to beat left handed pitchers in Triple-A, at least not in any way that translates especially well to the majors.
6. Dodgers RHP Gavin Stone (AA) 23 years old
Stone. Gavin Stone. Private Eye. 11 years on the force, but they got it wrong too often for my liking, so I hung out my own shingle. Started solving my own puzzles. Like why wouldn’t the Dodgers promote me from Double-A even though I’ve been throwing rocks all season? I wasn’t really asking. I knew the answer. It’s always the same. Money. Control. Power.
7. Dodgers OF James Outman (AAA) 25 years old
Outman is on the 40-man roster, and he’s heating up after a slow start at Triple-A, belting three home runs in his last seven games.
8. Houston 2B Enmanuel Valdez (AAA) 23 years old
Valdez has played ten games in July, slashing .375/.435/.725 with five walks and six strikeouts, bringing his Triple-A line to .302/.364/.603 with eight home runs in 28 games. His strikeout rate in Double-A was 22.9 percent. In Triple-A, he’s at 17.8 percent. I think what we’re seeing is a hitter coming fully into his own, discovering how to best utilize his talents. He’s a left-handed hitter listed at just 5’9” 191 lbs, so he won’t have the Crawford Boxes tempting him, but he will have the platoon advantage more often than not.
9. Boston 1B Triston Casas (AAA) 22 years old
Casas is back in action on the complex after missing almost two months with an ankle injury. He’s 5-for-10 with a home run and a walk in three games against younger players and could quickly enter the first base picture for Boston if he carries those early returns up the chain during his rehab stint.
10. Rays RHP Taj Bradley (AAA) 21 years old
Will reportedly make his Triple-A debut after the Futures Game, and while the smart money says we won’t see him soon, that same money suggests the Rays would want to avoid their mistakes of last season, waiting too long on Joe Ryan and Shane Baz for them to be experienced players in their postseason run. Granted, they traded Ryan, but maybe they wouldn’t have done that if they’d seen how his stuff played against major league hitters by then. The organization always seemed a little low on him compared to his outcomes, and the fastest remedy for that would’ve been to see how it looks on the field.
Bradley posted a 0.91 WHIP and 1.70 ERA with 88 strikeouts in 74.1 Double-A innings across 16 starts. If he does anything like that for a month in Triple-A, he should be part of the major league rotation before August ends. Or he would be If I were running Tampa anyway.
11. Astros RHP Hunter Brown (AAA) 23 years old
Brown’s walk rate is still higher than ideal (10.9 percent), but he’s improved his ability to repeat and throws enough strikes now to let his double-plus stuff eat within the zone. Houston is a double-edged sword where pitching prospects are concerned, as we’ve seen most recently with Cristian Javier. It’s tough for a young guy to get a foothold, but if you do find yourself with an Astros starting pitcher on your fantasy roster, you’ll probably be happy you have him.
12. Nationals RHP Cade Cavalli (AAA) 23 years old
In his last eight starts, Cavalli has recorded 47 strikeouts against 13 walks across 42.2 innings with a 0.91 WHIP and 2.11 ERA. Washington has no standings-based incentive to promote him, but the club recalled Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray last year rather than tinker with their timecards and might do the same with Cavalli, especially if they feel the need some good press like they did this time last season.
13. Mets C Francisco Alvarez (AAA) 20 years old
He’s hitting .087 through eight games in Triple-A, but he’s also walked seven times and struck out nine. His .324 on base percentage over that stretch is evidence of the floor here. Even when struggling at a new level, Alvarez works the count, goes through the process. Results will follow.
14. Diamondbacks OF Corbin Carroll (AAA) 21 years old
I don’t think he’s coming up this year, but I might as well say so in the body of the article to throw a little changeup. Plus, he might be the only real lightning left in the bottle. CBA long shot or not, he probably belongs on the list.
15. Orioles SS Gunnar Henderson (AAA) 20 years old
Pew. Pew. Gunnar’s been firing blanks the past couple weeks, which is too bad because he has an outside chance to force the leap if the club keeps winning.
The next ten:
16. Rangers 3B Josh Jung (AAA) 24 years old
17. Guardians LHP Logan Allen (AAA) 23 years old
18. Yankees LHP Ken Waldichuk (AAA) 24 years old
19. Guardians OF Will Benson (AAA) 24 years old
20. Diamondbacks OF Stone Garrett (AAA) 26 years old
21. Guardians C Bo Naylor (AAA) 22 years old
22. Diamondbacks C Dominic Miroglio (AAA) 27 years old
23. Rays 3B Curtis Mead (AAA) 21 years old
24. Orioles 2B Jordan Westburg (AAA) 23 years old
25. Mariners RHP Emerson Hancock (AA) 23 years old
Thanks for reading!
I’m @theprospectitch on Twitter.
One more Itch. Which do you prefer long term, M. Gore or B. Miller? Thank you
Thoughts on Michael Massey? Looks like – by far – KC best option at 2B & impressive #s in Omaha.
he has never not hit
Hey Itch, great stuff! I have a prospect draft at the all star break every year, and I do well leaning on your rankings. I’m curious if you would recommend any international prospects or elite players likely to be posted from Japan? We only draft 3 each year (and can only keep 3 labeled as “prospects” from year to year), so I’m not looking to slow-play a 17 year old.
Thanks, Milarky!
Kodai Senga or bust for 2023 I think.
Roki Sasaki (20 K game) for much later depending on how his team wants to play it.
Munetaka Murakami if you want a hitter, but he too won’t be here anytime soon.
Thanks Itch, I’ll do some research on Senga. About where would you slot him in your top 100 if I were willing to take a gamble on him?
Dynasty league, would you pick up DL Hall and drop Ashby or Pivetta for him???…..I have Freddy Peralta, and Ashby might not start……thanks and great work
Tight one here, but I don’t want to miss out on DL Hall because I was worried about losing Nick Pivetta to another team’s pickups.
If you had to predict Carroll stats next year in a 5 x 5 with OB P and doubles and triples as the two other categories… Would you give it a stab up for me and predict
AB HR RBI OBP SB 2b/3b please?
Fun question.
.370 25 doubles and 10 triples (damn)
23 home runs and 37 stolen bases.
excuse my while I put out the fire on my keyboard
Haha :)
Is that in the MLB ? NL?
What are your thoughts on Vaughn Grissom? Glad to see he was promoted to AA and a bit shocked at how well he continues to hit there!
I love him. Traded 1.26 and 2.56 to jump up and take him at 1.16 in the Razz30 in this year’s FYPD.
Have also picked up a couple cards, if I remember right. I don’t do that but once or twice a year these days, but I bought some of his 1st chrome autos around $25 shipped in the not too distant past.
Anyway, my money is in my mouth on this one.
Great read as always Itch! Going to put you on the spot, but which prospect would you see having the most power that should translate to the bigs? Thanks
Thanks, David!
It’s an interesting question.
James Wood came to mind right away.
So did Vaughn Grissom, who just barrels everything and is already 6’3″ 210 lbs.
Can I still say Oneil Cruz?
Francisco Alvarez is stronger than concrete.
Will Benson is a large and very strong human.
Hi Itch. I see you listed Garrett Stone. I think in the past you have mentioned both Stone and Dominic Fletcher, do you prefer Stone or think Stone is more likely to be called up ? Also, any 1st baseman you could see getting called up. I need help there in an NL only league. I saw Bligh Madrid has had a few starts at 1st since being sent back to AAA. I would expect him to be recalled after the trade deadline if not before with Pittsburgh probably moving a few hitters and their 1st base position and OF not strong and guys like Gamel possibly traded. Thanks. I
Hi, Rain,
I’d say both: I prefer Garrett and think he’ll get the first opportunity.
Sorry to say you’re probably out of luck in NL Only unless someone gets traded over, though I do like the potential of this Madris maneuver. They’ve gotta be hoping someone takes Vogelbach.
Seth Beer and Matt Mervis come to mind, but both feel like long shots.
Mark Vientos might come up and kick in over there a little.
I’ll drop back in if I think of anyone else. Could you swing a trade for LaMonte Wade?
Drop Wiemer for Stone in a points league? All my other prospects are much better than Wiemer. I love Stone but not sure his upside relative to Wiemers.
Yep, I’d do that in standard and certainly in points.
Itch love it all ! 12 team keep 10 / 12 farm.. would you add Kerry Carpenter in place of Nick Gonzales?? Thank you always
Thanks Lower the Jolly Roger!
Feels weird to say it, but yes, I prefer Carpenter at the moment.
Thank you for this. No Spencer Steer?
He’s playing well enough to get a shot and might in September, but org depth remains a pretty big short-term hurdle for the time being.
Always love the posts!
I’m in a 10 team NL only ROTO Dynasty league.
I’m out of the race this year………would you trade my Mike Clevinger for his Edward Cabrera & Matt Liberatore?
I’d have 1 to 2 more years to control Clevinger but 4 more years with BOTH rookies.
Thanks and enjoy the day!
Thanks, Chud!
I’d prefer Clevinger even with the ticking clock. Could trade him for a lot more than this if he stays strong on the comeback trail.
Thanks again! Hope you enjoy the day, too!
Morning Itch!
Another great piece Thank You! I grabbed Carpentier and Outman and stashed them for now.
1 So, have you heard what is the timeline for Tatis return?
2 Batten hasn’t gotten many AB’s is he a hold or a drop?
3 Jose Tena and Carlos Jorge drop one or hold both?
4 Lastly looking for a RP prospect that could get some innings in this season
ala Doval?
Thanks, junior56!
1) no timeline that I know of. Just that he’s returned to baseball activities despite some disagreement from the medical professionals on when to return
2) probably a drop
3) I’d prefer Jorge
4) I’ve been thinking on this a while, but the best bet feels like RJ Dabovich on the Giants.
Itch:
As always, thanks for the read!
Would you drop S Frelick or Jay Allen for Gavin Stone?
Thanks
Thanks, Joe Buckyourself!
I’d drop Allen for Stone at the moment.
Great list Itch!
I sold Carrol last week for Shane MacClanahan and Cron in an effort to win now. Hope it works out.
I don’t have a prospect question but how would you rank Brandon Lowe, Kris Bryant and Hoskins for the rest of season?
The owner of them is rebuilding and I could acquire any of them for picks. Looking to grab one for my playoff push.
Thanks!
LG
Thanks, LG!
That’s a great return for Carroll!! Well played!
They’re close, but I’ll take Bryant on the chance that he’s a 300/400/500 in a warm Coors.
Then Hoskins then Lowe at the moment.
Love Sunday morning with Itch, a cup of Joe and reading about baseball prospects! Ryan Pepiot coming back? I have one spot left Grab Taj, or Gavin Stone…Sears was dropped! One spot on my roster so many choices! On the cusp of winning our league! 13 team dynasty 5×5 keep them all!… thanks for your great insight!
Thanks, Jimmy!
Got my coffee in hand : )
Since you’re in the hunt, I’d grab Sears bc he might get the first chance w Severino sidelined.