Junior 2

When you have to tell people your favorite team’s ace is a 31-year-old rookie, you kinda make a face like Arnold Schwarzenegger right there…  It’s as uncomfortable as a dude getting pregnant!  But for a rebuilding team, I guess nothing is inconceivable after all!

As an unabashed Brewers homer, and owner of the REL Brewers where I have to own a certain amount from my parent team, I’ve been a big follower of the Brew Crew beat, and there’s been buzz for Junior Guerra ever since we picked him up.  I even brought him up on the Pod when he was promoted, much to Grey cackle-ment.  I of course never saw anything like this coming though…  I knew he had a fastball and a great splitter, but that splitter hasn’t been just “great”.  It’s been the best splitter in baseball.  His other stuff is pretty good, but he hit 98 MPH in his last start against the Pirates, and if he can throw gas like that, it’s going to make him a dynamic guy ROS.  So I decided to double up on my Sunday afternoon baseball watching by breaking down Guerra’s start against the Cubs, while watching my Brewers like I would’ve anyway.  Two birds one stone!  Sue me!  Here’s how he looked:

First Inning: Guerra’s first pitch is a 91 MPH low and away to Tommy La Stella, 92 is in there, 91 runs well outside, La Stella chases a sinking 92 MPH fastball going low, Guerra’s first splitter is a good one but drops just a little too low, then 92 is just a bit too far outside – La Stella starts but barely holds – and it’s a leadoff walk.  Ugh, Cubs fans have invaded and cheer hard for Kris Bryant who takes an outside slider that definitely looked good to me but called outside 1-0, 93 low and in ripped foul, 93 again looks to paint but called low 2-1, split goes low, then 94 is way low for another walk.  Yeesh.  94 outside to Anthony Rizzo, then a low fastball is hit right to Scooter Gennett for a tailor-made double-play.  Huge play.  Ben Zobrist takes a late hack at a 94 MPH fastball and nubs it foul, then 94 low and in gets absolutely murdered to right, but it’s pulled and foul by only a few feet.  But on the verge of all that disaster, Guerra goes 0-2 splitter and the 88 MPH pitch drops into the outside corner for a K looking to get out of the inning.

Guerra-Splitter-1Second Inning: Mannnnn after a grinding 39 pitch bottom of the first by Jon Lester, Guerra has a 2-0 lead and 93 paints the outside corner to Willson Contreras, 0-1.  91 is high, 93 is in there, then that devastating splitter at 87 drops off the outside corner and gets a weak tapper to third for the first out.  93 inside to Jason Heyward, fastball again misses, 94 hits the outside corner 2-1, then 93 in the zone is grounded to first, another pretty easy groundout.  Splitter skips in off the dirt to Addison Russell, then nasty 93 MPH fastball with great sink gets a whiff 1-1:

Guerra-FastballMmmmm.  High 94 MPH fastball fouled back, splitter goes way outside 2-2, then splitter again out there gets a wave and dribbler to third just like Contreras’s out, and it’s a 1-2-3 inning all on easy groundouts.

Third Inning: Another grinding inning for Lester – the Brewers don’t score but it’s another long layoff – and a fastball is in there to David Ross, 0-1.  Splitter gets a big whiff as it drops off the outside corner, then Guerra paints the outside corner at 94 for a quick 3-pitch strikeout.  93 barely misses outside to Lester, 92 right in there, 92 outside, 93 gets barely nipped foul, 93 is high and away, 3-2 count now to the light hitting Lester.  Then 93 is outside, and Guerra puts his glove to the face and I imagine drops some saucy Hispanic curse words…  So runner on first, and 93 is outside to La Stella, then 93 right down the middle is lined into center for a single.  Can’t be letting these guys get on in front of the Cubs’ artillery.  Big splitter hangs a little high and Bryant can’t quite hold his swing 0-1, then 94 on the hands is popped to Chris Carter for an easy second out.  Wow, nasty splitter looked to drop into the bottom of the zone to Rizzo but called low 1-0 – zone has been called pretty tight for both sides – 94 is inside to Rizzo who crowds the F out of the plate, but Guerra goes 2-0 splitter and it’s rolled over to first for another easy groundout to get out of the inning.

Fourth Inning: Lester finally cruised through an inning and Zobrist takes a rolling slider in the dirt 1-0, 93 barely misses low, 92 is way inside, 3-0 fastball is in there, 93 paints the outside corner, then 93 again is barely outside and it’s a leadoff walk.  No one too happy with the zone right now, that one had a little piece of the zone according to Foxtrax.  Contreras whiffs through a fastball, then fastball inside is taken and Zobrist steals second – but a challenge is called and Scoot got him on the swipe.  Way to gettem, Scoot!  Then outside fastball is hit towards first, it pops out of Carter’s mitt for an infield single.  Weird that Carter was playing so far in there with no one base – odd shift…  Anyway, one out and runner on first and Heyward takes a sinking fastball outside, splitter again looked to fall into that bottom black but called low 2-0, 93 is well outside, 92 right in there 3-1, then fastball is rocketed to second, but the shift pays off with a double-play opp, but Heyward beats it by a step.  Regular shift and that’s a single up the gap.  So two outs, and Guerra is low and outside at 95 MPH to Russell, 93 is fouled straight back off the ump’s mask, 94 pulled foul up the third base line, 95 is way outside, splitter is barely tipped foul, then splitter again that was breaking into the zone is popped to short for an easy third out.

Fifth Inning: Still a 2-0 game despite a lot of weird stuff, and a curveball rolls outside to Ross 1-0, curve again goes low, fastball on the hands pulled foul, then 92 again on the hands gets a lazy pop to center, one down.  91 on the hands to Lester fouled back, 92 right down the middle with Lester taking all the way, then splitter hangs a little down the middle and Lester hits a rope to center, but Captain Kirk Nieuwenhuis nabs it on the run for the second out.  Hardest hit fair ball of the day!  Man, the ump is calling no breaking balls for strikes with a curve looking good called low to La Stella, fastball again looked close is called low 2-0, 92 MPH fastball is in there, then fastball on the outside corner is lasered to the left field gap.  It lands easily, but Kirk gobbles it up, and fires a great throw to Scoot who gets La Stella out trying to make it a double and it wraps up a 1-2-3 inning.

Sixth Inning: The Crew put up another 2 runs of support to go up 4-0, and Guerra misses outside to Bryant, 1-0.  93 is outside, then 92 on the knees is flared to center for a leadoff single.  94 is in there to Rizzo, 94 again gets a foul bunt with the Brewers shifting hard, but it’s 0-2 now and Rizzo nips a splitter foul, 93 rises high, outside splitter is fouled off, then a splitter is hit right to Gennett for a tailor-made double-play and Scoot boots it.  Wow.  Heartbreaking error.  I retract my earlier Scoot support.  So runners on first and second, no outs, and fastball is low to Zobrist, then a 93 MPH fastball is hit hard on the ground between first and second for an RBI single.  Thanks a lot Scooter.  But first pitch two-seamer to Contreras is a weak dribbler to short, and it’s a double-play that moves the runner to third.  94 is called low to Heyward, still not getting calls low in the zone, 92 paints the outside corner, 94 is way outside, nasty 85 MPH splitter gets a whiff, 2-2:

Guerra-Splitter-2Whewwww, then my heart just dropped with a 94 MPH fastball rocketed to right, but it’s right to Hernan Perez who has it on the track for a loud final out.  Guerra gets out of it with only an unearned run.

Seventh Inning: Wow, even despite the walks and the error, Guerra is still at only 93 pitches and starts Javier Baez with a 92 MPH fastball that gets a whiff, 0-1.  Russell had to leave so this is his spot, and splitter is low, then easily Guerra’s nastiest curve on the day gets another swing-and-miss, 1-2:

Guerra-CurveballDear lord!  Then a hanging splitter is hit pretty hard to left, but Baez got under it and Braun nabs it for the first out.  And that will actually close the book on Guerra, who comes out of the game so Will Smith can come in and face lefty pinch-hitter Miguel Montero.  Great outing again for Guerra, but Will Smith would blow this game epicly sticking Guerra with a no decision.

Final Line:  ND  6.1 IP  97 Pitches (55 Strikes)  0 ER  5 Hits  4 Walks  2 K  Gamescore: 59   Gamescore+: 57.8

Final Analysis: Sure I might be a little biased, but this was yet another fantastic performance from the Brewers ace.  With the low Ks, it’s not too surprising the Gamescore+ came out below the Gamescore, but there was constant weak contact and nothing in this start was too “fluky”.

Starting with the fastball, and, well so much for the hope he had added velocity after the break.  Even the Brewers announcers commented that the radar gun in Pittsburgh his last start seemed to be a little hot.  Instead of peaking at 97-98, Guerra was sitting at 92-94 with a few at 95.  It’s still an MLB plus pitch, and his two-seamer got used a little more than usual, with nice sink like that GIF above.  Then to the bread and butter – that splitter.  Man is this pitch good!  It functions in a way like a change-up, and even is called his “split-change” at times.  It features downward break that dances, with variant vertical movement as well.  While the Ks weren’t huge on the pitch this time, it still got weak contact on some grounders.  Rounding it out is his curveball, which Fangraphs calls a slider and I may have flip-flopped on if it was a curve or slider above as well.  It’s not a pitch he throws a ton, but if he can get the kind of break he had on that GIF to Baez, it can be a plus third offering.

There’s a lot of things that make Junior look unsexy.  He’s a 31-year-old rookie, the K numbers aren’t “ridiculous”, he pitches for a bad team in a bad park…  I get it.  But in a fantasy landscape where starting pitching has been horrific in the middle-tiers, I think it’s time to lock in Guerra in the must-own zone.  His ownership in the 60%s in ESPN and Yahoo kinda surprised me though – seems like the masses have already bought in.  Maybe I’M the slow one!  Guerra gets a nice bump up in my ROS ranks, and I don’t see any reason for this not to continue.  At first I thought he was a lock to be traded being so old and all, but since he is a catcher-convert, he doesn’t have a ton of innings and is under team control through 2021.  He’s gonna stay put here in the NL.  Credit our resident nerd David Stearns for finding this guy on a waiver claim…

Razzball Baseball

Updated Top 100 SP

(rankings for ROS based on 12-team Roto, green for risers, red for fallers)

RANK SP, TEAM
1 Madison Bumgarner, SF
2 Max Scherzer, WAS
3 Jake Arrieta, CHC
4 Chris Sale, CWS
5 Jose Fernandez, MIA
6 Stephen Strasburg, WAS
7 Jacob deGrom, NYM
8 Johnny Cueto, SF
9 Corey Kluber, CLE
10 Noah Syndergaard, NYM
11 Jon Lester, CHC
12 Carlos Martinez, STL
13 David Price, BOS
14 Danny Salazar, CLE
15 Carlos Carrasco, CLE
16 Cole Hamels, TEX
17 Clayton Kershaw, LAD
18 Adam Wainwright, STL
19 Yu Darvish, TEX
20 Justin Verlander, DET
21 Gerrit Cole, PIT
22 Zack Greinke, ARI
23 Kenta Maeda, LAD
24 Jose Quintana, CWS
25 Masahiro Tanaka, NYY
26 Drew Pomeranz, BOS
27 Julio Teheran, ATL
28 Matt Shoemaker, LAA
29 Danny Duffy, KC
30 Felix Hernandez, SEA
31 Rich Hill, OAK
32 Chris Archer, TB
33 Aaron Sanchez, TOR
34 Lance McCullers, HOU
35 Jason Hammel, CHC
36 Kyle Hendricks, CHC
37 Dallas Keuchel, HOU
38 Steven Matz, NYM
39 Michael Fulmer, DET
40 Tanner Roark, WAS
41 Anthony DeSclafani, CIN
42 Junior Guerra, MIL
43 Michael Pineda, NYY
44 Blake Snell, TB
45 John Lackey, CHC
46 Jeff Samardzija, SF
47 Michael Wacha, STL
48 Kevin Gausman, BAL
49 Taijuan Walker, SEA
50 Chris Tillman, BAL
51 Zachary Davies, MIL
52 Trevor Bauer, CLE
53 Brandon McCarthy, LAD
54 Sean Manaea, OAK
55 Vincent Velasquez, PHI
56 Aaron Nola, PHI
57 Adam Conley, MIA
58 Joe Ross, WAS
59 Ian Kennedy, KC
60 Archie Bradley, ARI
61 Marco Estrada, TOR
62 Marcus Stroman, TOR
63 Steven Wright, BOS
64 Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA
65 Jake Odorizzi, TB
66 Jimmy Nelson, MIL
67 Jeremy Hellickson, PHI
68 James Paxton, SEA
69 Rick Porcello, BOS
70 Sonny Gray, OAK
71 Tyler Skaggs, LAA
72 Jon Gray, COL
73 Jameson Taillon, PIT
74 J.A. Happ, TOR
75 Mike Leake, STL
76 Scott Kazmir, LAD
77 Jordan Zimmermann, DET
78 Collin McHugh, HOU
79 Gio Gonzalez, WAS
80 Carlos Rodon, CWS
81 Matt Moore, TB
82 Drew Smyly, TB
83 Robbie Ray, ARI
84 Jaime Garcia, STL
85 James Shields, CWS
86 Francisco Liriano, PIT
87 Mike Foltynewicz, ATL
88 Dylan Bundy, BAL
89 Josh Tomlin, CLE
90 Bud Norris, LAD
91 Bartolo Colon, NYM
92 Jerad Eickhoff, PHI
93 Jose Berrios, MIN
94 Mike Fiers, HOU
95 Kendall Graveman, OAK
96 A.J. Griffin, TEX
97 CC Sabathia, NYY
98 Ervin Santana, MIN
99 Andrew Cashner, SD
100 Lucas Giolito, WAS

Dropped Out: Tyler Glasnow, PIT (DL – shoulder, Pirates have no reason to rush him back), Daniel Mengden, OAK (never got past #100, it’s time to shave the mustache), Tyler Duffey, MIN (I got suckered in by a few fluky good games recently, but he’s mostly been bad), Wei-Yin Chen, MIA (DL – elbow)

  • Mannnnn, that sucks for Clayton Kershaw owners.  I am one of those owners in a shallow dynasty and it’s killing me…  Hopefully this will turn out to be something like he had early last year and cost him *only* about a month…
  • What a weird situation for Chris Sale!  Going all Edward Scissorhands in the clubhouse.  Let’s just say it’s probably a good thing Adam LaRoche‘s kid wasn’t around for this kind of garment massacre!
  • Lord, Jeff Samardzija has been ATROCIOUS lately!  Why did no one call me out for keeping him in that 25-30 range?!  My bad.
  • I’m going all in on Blake Snell.  I know his start yesterday @OAK was just “OK”, but his previous two were fantastic and I think we get a K per 9 guy that finishes strong.  I’m even pushing him this high with the thought he has his last start or two cut to limit his innings.
  • We just got word yesterday that Tyler Skaggs will start tomorrow, but I’m not comfortable putting him much higher in ROS terms just yet.  That said, I spec added him in a few leagues just to see what happens.  The numbers in his AAA rehab starts were other-worldly: 12.53:2.23 K:BB with a 1.67 ERA over 7 AAA rehab starts.
  • Very, very quietly Sean Manaea is surging in my ranks with his performances of late.  He’s got a 17:0, yes ZERO, K:BB his last 3 starts, only allowing 2 overall ER.  I’m a little leerier here than Snell because he’s had a DL stint, but start-to-start I’m about equally high on both.  Manaea’s also made a slight arsenal change by throwing the slider a little less and the change-up a tad more.
  • I really, REALLY wanted to put Dylan Bundy much higher in the ranks after loving his stuff in the Pitcher Profile last week, but I still worry he’s going to have short leashes and limit chances for wins.  87 pitches in that last start is pretty exciting though.  Must-own in virtually all dynasties.

 

Thoughts on the movie Junior 2?  And what caught you eye in the ranks this week?  Shoot your thoughts below, and happy pitching Razzball Nation!

  1. Grey

    Grey says:
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    Is that poster from your bedroom wall?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      BTW, I’m more surprised Emma Thompson is in this than Guerra, I did not remember that

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Grey: I’m going STRAIGHT to Kinkos and making it for my wall… Haha I don’t remember anything from that movie, I saw a few mins on TV once and it looked awful!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha

  2. B the Esq. says:
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    Thoughts on Jose De Leon? Any chance he comes up in the next week or 2, and if so, where do you think he might land in the top 100 if at all?

    Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @B the Esq.: Nasty stuff, would probably be in the Majors if not for preseason injury. He’d definitely make it in when he gets the call, I just dunno if it’ll be until September or something. Maybe get a Skaggs-ish introduction in, like 70s? Any time!

  3. Jerry says:
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    Hey, JB! Archer, Bauer, or Samardjza ros? Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Jerry: Hey man! ROS ranks are above :) I’m sticking with Archer by a decent margin.

  4. Juan says:
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    My fantasy season is over.
    H2H, 12 team. We keep 10 guys.
    i have a few pieces i can trade to team who are in “win now mode”
    Im offering Lorenzo Cain, albert Pujols, and masahiro Tanaka.

    Ive been offered Andrew Mccutchen. is that a good deal? should i be asking for more?
    another GM is offering Darvish.

    What do you think?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Juan: Mehhhhh, McCutchen would be a “fine” return I guess, but doesn’t really fit your team strategy. Darvish is reallllllly interesting though. Would it cost all 3 of those guys? I still might do it if you’re 100% rebuilding.

      • Juan says:
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        @JB Gilpin:
        I see cutch and Lorenzo both the same this year (if we were to redraft i would take cutch over cain though). Cain Tanaka Albert have all been better than cutch this year.
        Its looking like it would cost those 3 to land either one.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Juan: Yeah, Cutch has been better lately though. I like the Darvish route better

  5. Fister Furbush says:
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    Alright I’ve got some biases playing a factor in my pitching decisions. I’m a Seattleite…I don’t like starting my pitchers against them, not just because of my allegiances, but because they’ve got some boppers. Please JB Wan Kenobi, you’re my only hope.

    Pick two. H2H points
    Cole vs Seattle
    Lester vs Seattle
    Sale vs Cubs? maybe no one…
    Matz vs Col
    Bauer vs Oak

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Fister Furbush: Haha I will try! I think Sale should be back for one start, and be angry. Same for Lester after a frustrating game in this start yesterday. Gimme dem two lefties!

  6. Scissor Sale says:
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    shoemaker or Kyle Hendricks ROS?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Scissor Sale: Shoemaker, I have him 28 and Hendricks 36 ROS above

      • Scissor Sale says:
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        @JB Gilpin: thanks, JB. It seems like Hendircks is havinvg the better season, or at least more consistent, any reason for ranking Hendricks lower?

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Scissor Sale: Well Shoemaker just started bad. Last 12 starts he’s 2.39 ERA with 93:10 K:BB in only 83 IP. That kind of K rate Hendricks doesn’t quite get to. If they had the same K rates they would be about next to each other

  7. My Thread Count Is High says:
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    Whats up man, so lets talk rosters and pitching worth owning ROS. Here’s my current roster…

    ESPN 12 team HTH 5×5 with OBP and QS daily moves and 4 keepers per season

    C Posey
    1B Cabrera
    2B Daniel Murphy
    3B Seager
    SS A. Russell
    OF Trout
    OF Bruce
    OF Polanco
    UTIL SS Bregman
    UTIL 2B/SS/3B Baez
    Bench OF/3B/DH Sano
    Bench OF Dahl
    DL OF Choo

    SP Salazar
    SP Shoemaker
    RP Jansen
    RP Melancon
    P Nola
    P Pineda
    P DeSclafani
    P Pomeranz
    Bench SP Manaea
    Bench SP Gausman
    Bench SP Snell
    DL Kimbrel

    So after the trade for Trout and dropping Clippard for Dahl, this is what my roster looks like. I’d prefer 3 closers but Clippard is stinkin up the joint and who knows if Barret gets the job or not, plus Kimbrel is on my DL and making progress.

    So on to the topic of SP’s, any changes you’re making? Was hoping Nola has righted the ship but that last game was craptastic, I think he gets the Braves next but I just dunno what to make of him, he looked so good earlier this year. I worried about my staff because I dont really have an Ace(maybe Salazar), Pomeranz “may” regress some in the AL Beast, Rodon and Paxton looked like they could be anchors but obviously neither of them have proved to be much better than streamers thus far and ve had to drop both. So Skaggs, Paxton, Sonny Gray, Liriano, A.Bradley, Robby Ray, Odorizzi, E.Santana and Rodon are my choices. Thoughts on which arm(s) to swap out…if any?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @My Thread Count Is High: Yeah man, was great to see Kimbrel throwing already. Yeah i think in my last comment I said Nola is dead to me. Pomeranz is looking good today tho! And look at that Shoemaker stat I cite above :) I think your pitching is actually pretty good.

      Ummmm I think my ranks say Paxton ROS, but I think I might nab Skaggs just for the upside, and lose Nola. Then assess after Skaggs’ first start

      • My Thread Count Is High says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Thanks man, Im intrigued by Skaggs too. And I know with the range of guys i threw out there that sometimes you have to make calls that might be slightly contrary to that weeks edition of the ROS rankings, so I appreciate the advice. I also have Dahls spot to play with if I want to revert back to only one bench bat. Im check back in soon enough, have a good evening man!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @My Thread Count Is High: Yup exactly. In shallower leagues, you might hop up 10-20 in the ranks just for upside to see what happens. Hope your squad kicked it off strong this week!

          • My Thread Count Is High says:
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            @JB Gilpin: Quick question with my roster above(with Skaggs now in Nola’s spot) Would you move Bregman? I got a Texas guy that’s in sell mode that wants him as a keeper next year. He has the following players he’d move RP Casilla, 1B Freeman, SS Segura, 2B Cano, MAYBE McCutchen(but if so only because he cant keep him next year, much like my Stanton Springer for Trout trade). And he has Teheran and Walker as arms…love to hear your thoughts. Also if I do a 2 for my 1 I’ll need help with the drop lol.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @My Thread Count Is High: Ummm, I think I only would for Cano or McCutchen. I dunno if either is really a huge get though. I’d do Cutch I think. But it would have to be 1-for-1

              • My Thread Count Is High says:
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                @JB Gilpin: Kinda how I saw it too…thanks buddy.

                • My Thread Count Is High says:
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                  @My Thread Count Is High: He says he’ll do Cutch for Bregman straight up, but I’m still torn. Cutch hasn’t been very Cutch-like this year and I probably wouldn’t keep him because he has a 1st rd designation and I will already have Trout there. What ya think make the move or hold onto Bregman for next year with a last round keeper value?

                  • JB Gilpin

                    JB Gilpin says:
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                    @My Thread Count Is High: Oh damn, totally my bad, I forgot you kept guys based on rounds! So Bregman would be last round keeper for 2 years right? Yea you’re not doin that, my bad :)

                    • My Thread Count Is High says:
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                      @JB Gilpin: No worries. If Cutch was playing like Cutch I might still consider it because we can only keep 4 guys total…but hes been pretty meh.I could probably get him to throw in Teheran or Cano but Im still not sure that makes this years team THAT much better.

                      Skaggs looked good, hope he keeps it up. Dahl has collected a couple of hits but nada from Bregman so far, would be nice to see him start putting up some counting stats.

                    • JB Gilpin

                      JB Gilpin says:
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                      Bregman almost hit a grand salami though! So I would still give him plenty of patience. You def lucked out nabbing all 3 of those new guys! New Thread time!

  8. Steve says:
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    afraid of Thor’s injury risk down the stretch, flip him for Sale or Cueto? Or aim higher?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Steve: I am a little too or else he’d easily be in the top 10. I definitely would take Sale. Cueto… Mehhhh, it’s a little safer, but I dunno if I would do that one.

  9. Shitwolf says:
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    who would you guys start this week

    Nola @atlanta
    VV @ atlanta
    or Duffy LAA…

    I just keep getting stuck thinking about this lol

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Shitwolf: Ah damn sorry if I missed ya! Podcast day makes Monday busssssy. I think I would gone Duffy

      • Shitwolf says:
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        @JB Gilpin:

        thats ok homie I went VV :) lets see what happens

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Shitwolf: Cool yeah that is the upside matchup of the bunch for sure. I like them both a lot more than Nola right now! Haha. good luck!

  10. Bill says:
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    Duffy’s velocity dropped 2 MPH two starts ago, then popped back up to 95 last week. Any worry there? Should I be selling him and/or Fulmer?

    Also – I know it’s not pitching, but rank Stanton, Carpenter, Bautista and JD H2H ROS… Thanks JB

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Bill: Nahhhh, as mentioned above on Guerra’s start, some parks have different readings on their guns that could contribute to most of that. I’m not too worried, I would prob hold over Fulmer, I think my ranks say that too. Ummm, I’ll go Stanton, Bautista, JD, Carpenter. Any time!

  11. Greg says:
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    So Snell or Mannea? Factor also league, park, and innings limit. I’m leaning Snell, but that park is cavernous, and the AL East is a beast. I’ll go with your recommendation…..

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Greg: I’ll go Snell too. These two have been big adds for me across leagues the past week or two and Snell was my first add. I worry a little that Manaea had the DL stint, and Manaea’s road numbers are horrific. Snell has a little better Ks too

      • Greg says:
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        @JB Gilpin: JB, when will Snell be shut down? Mannea, too, for that matter. And while I’m at it, heck….would you rate DeLeon over all of the youngsters? :)

        G

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Greg: I kinda think Snell goes fairly far. Manaea, mehhhh, early Sept maybe. I dunno. I wanna see De Leon up first, it’s just such a crapshoot trying to rank guys not in the Majors yet in ROS terms with only 2 months left haha

  12. ScottyB says:
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    Would you pull the trigger on a deal to trade away A. Chapman for Danny Salazar. See you have DS at #14.

    Normal league (W,K,S,ERA,WHIP)

    I need SP and trading away Chapman would leave me with just 1 Closer. Not good at all but thinking a very good SP will help me more than my current 2 closer situation. I’m currently handing on to the last playoff spot.

    Thoughts?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @ScottyB: League format and where you are in the standings are big factors. If H2H, I’d def take Salazar. In roto I might not if saves were bunchy in the standings

      • ScottyB says:
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        @JB Gilpin:

        thanks JB and yup, Its H2H

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @ScottyB: Cool, Salazar it is!

  13. Clive says:
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    In a 10 team keeper, I recently added De Leon. He’s looked amazing in AAA and feel like he’ll be up soon with Dodgers SP struggles. Plus he’s had limited innings on his arm this year so should be solid ROS.

    But now Berrios, Snell and Taillon (along with Skaggs) are available…

    How would you rank these 5 ROS? What about long-term potential?

    Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Clive: Yup I am eagerly monitoring De Leon as well. Agree he could be up soon. ROS ranks are above :) I’ll go Snell/Skaggs/Taillon/Berrios/De Leon. I still worry about how deep they let De Leon go start to start, we saw them limit Urias a little per start as well. Long term, hmmmm. I’d probably go Berrios/Snell/De Leon/Taillon/Skaggs, but man they’re all in the same range haha. Any time!

  14. Drunk Mets PR Team says:
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    Hey JB! This is killer as usual. I picked up Guerra on your advice after a previous recap and haven’t looked back…

    I’m in a 12-team H2H league where the pitching categories are a little unusual: We have wins, quality starts, and saves, but the others are all ratios: ERA, WHIP, K/9 and BB/9.

    My staff right now is Kluber, Carrasco, Shoemaker, Guerra, DeSclafani, Eickhoff with Kimbrel, Allen, Jeffress and Clippard as RP’s. I have room for 2 adds, or 1 if/when Joe Ross gets off the DL.

    Gausman and Manaea are both available. Or, I could be a little unorthodox and grab 2 RP’s who aren’t getting saves, but have been money recently otherwise — Addison Reed, Pedro Baez and Edwin Diaz are all on the wire. In this kind of league, what do you think the smartest play is?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Drunk Mets PR Team: Thanks so much man, glad Junior is panning out! Ummm, hmmmm. I definitely like both in your format, especially with a double-dip in wins and quality starts. I think I would go with them both as they’re both showing great control right now. K/9 might not fit them as good as streaming RP, but otherwise I like nabbing both SP for now

  15. Marty Jannetty_Was Set Up says:
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    Hey JB,

    Been reading all season but first time posting on your write ups this year; GREAT SUFF MAN!

    I’m all set for 3 playoff pushes as far as my bats go, but my pitching is nothing to write home about. I can pretty much cruise into the playoffs with what I’ve got right now, but I’m trying to build a pitching staff for September.

    I currently have: Sydergaard (couldn’t trade him in any leagues), Darvish, Kazmir, Paxton, Desclafani, Gausman, T. Walker, Skaggs, Tyson Ross, Zach Eflin (read Dan Pants write up Saturday and added him, already considering dropping him), and Hector Santiago.

    Question: Would you drop anyone for Bundy or Jose De Leon; both? I’m obviously holding Thor and Darvish ROS..but given end of season match ups I’m not too attached to anyone else. Grey said to lose Hector Santiago earlier for Rodon who’s on waviers, but I’m probably not going to get him with the 9th spot.

    Thanks in advance!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Marty Jannetty_Was Set Up: Thanks so much for reading, really appreciate that!!! Yeah pitching has been land mines for most people haha. I briefly saw an Eflin question below, the K rate is just sooooo low for him. Meh.

      Santiago can definitely go too. I would lose them both for Bundy and De Leon. Any time!

  16. #flytheW says:
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    In a 12 team h2h weekly points league would you take a chance and start Skaggs 2 start vs bos. N kc and bench 1 start jon gray vs @ balt. Or estrada, or tanaka, I’m starting syndenguard n carrasco reguard less. I also have wacha n lackey on the bench. So I guess what’s your top 5 pitchers to start this week. Thank you !!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @#flytheW: Sorry if I missed ya before the cut off! I think I would go Syndergaard, Carrasco, Estrada, Tanaka, and in pts I would indeed do Skaggs for the 2 games

  17. Scott Hagen says:
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    Any Eflin belief? Finding it hard not to scoop him up

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Scott Hagen: Mehhhh, he’s super blah to me with such low Ks. 7.24 K/9 in AAA and anemic 4.65 in the Majors. That’s just soooo low in the roto context, which kills your Ks as you eat up innings or starts. In H2H, I’m a lot more interested though

  18. PED Inc says:
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    Great job JB! Thanks!

    Only one name I’m seeing missing from this list…Zach Eflin???
    22 years old and since the middle of June he’s lowered his ERA from 10.80 to 3.40 and his whip from 2.04 to 1.02
    With a couple of complete games in there and he hasn’t allowed more than 3 runs in over 7 games against some pretty good teams. Strikeouts aren’t great but walks look pretty good and with the RP eligibility he’s been solid for me, what gives? Do you think this stretch has just been lucky?

    Thanks buddy!!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @PED Inc: Thanks so much man! Hah, yeah a lot of Eflin questions, I’m a little surprised! Thoughts on him on comment directly above, mainly it’s about low K rate and on a bad team/win potential. So with RP eligibility, sounds like you’re in H2H as well. As mentioned above, much more interested in those leagues, but these ranks are for roto :) Hope that helps with where I’m at on him!

      • PED Inc says:
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        @JB Gilpin: absolutely buddy! Thanks again. I’ve only added him in H2H points leagues and he’s been a godsend the last couple weeks with Thor, Matz, Archer, Walker, and Wacha at the top of my staff. He’s got a juicy two start week coming right up too!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @PED Inc: Yeah H2H Pts is DEFINITELY his format. Low walks lets him pitch deeper into games, so he fits that format perfectly

  19. muskysmell says:
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    So does anyone know if Jamie Garcia loses his 2-start status due to the rainout today?
    I picked him up solely to stream him twice in my weekly lineup league.
    Off to a smashing start!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @muskysmell: Haha, well they have a doubleheader scheduled for tomorrow already, so I think Garcia should still be fine. Hope it works out man!

      • muskysmell says:
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        @JB Gilpin:
        Thanks JB

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @muskysmell: Any time!

  20. Tony C says:
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    Hi JB! Great article. I’ve been onboard with Junior for over a month now and he’s been great for a mid season pickup! I recently picked up Jose DeLeon but Jose Berrios is available. Do u think Berrios will be up much sooner than DeLeon? Which pitcher do you think will have more success when they’re called up? Thanks

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Tony C: Thanks man, glad Junior is panning out! Whewwww that’s close. I think gun to my head I would take De Leon first if both were called up tomorrow, just due to being in NL. But I kinda have a feeling Berrios is up sooner and they let him pitch deeper into games, so I would indeed own Berrios. Any time!

  21. Steve says:
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    Hey JB no love for Fister or an oversight?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Steve: Oh I thought of him. As alluded to above with Eflin, suchhhhh low Ks in a roto construct is such a drain in roto terms. His peripherals indicate he should be a 4.50ish ERA kinda guy too. .254 BABIP and about 80% LOB. Pretty lucky

  22. Nightpandas says:
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    Looking to next year would you move Braun and Felix for Greinke and either Ellsbury or Longo? Looking for the pitching upgrade….

    Thanks man

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Nightpandas: Hmmmm. Braun looks great right now, and off back surgery. I know it’s hard to imagine, but he might have a healthy offseason this year for the first time in forever. I think the downgrade in hitting isn’t quite worth it in that deal

  23. SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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    JBeezly —

    keeper question for you. currently in 4th place but a ways off the top 3.

    should I trade Crush Davis (can’t be kept again) and Cole Hamels (can be kept for $20 for 2 more years), for Giolito ($10 for next 4) and Hunter Renfroe ($1 next year)?

    What do you think? Is Giolito worth it?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @SheriffMcRawDawg: Hmmmmm. Might like Hamels more next year at $20 over $10 Giolito, but then 3 years of Giolito… It’s “OK” but I think a different contender might pay a little more

  24. PD says:
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    Currently sitting 4th in tight 12 redraft leage. 1st with 7 point lead on the field & 2nd thru 6th only separeted by 9 points. My pitching stats are draggine me down. Not much avail in the S/H on the waivers (flipped Matz for Dyson 2 weeks ago).

    My SP are: Pomer, Shark, Junior, McCarthy, Bauer, Nola, Walker, Smyly
    Following are avail: Davies, Manaea, Pineda & Eduardo

    A) Who to pick up/drop (I sit 2nd in K’s & 1st in QS) but I’ve gone 40 more innings than the next closest. Leaning towards dropping Smyly & Nola.

    B) what S/H can realistically be targeted in a 1 for 1? (have Ramos, Melancon, Kimbrel, Dyson, Barnes, Libatore)

    • PD says:
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      @PD: I have Aaron Sanchez & Neris as well

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @PD: Man, tight race! Yeahhhh I can see why your pitchers have only been meh. Smyly and Nola have been annoying. Hah I said that before reading A! Yeah both can go. B. Damn that’s a lot of RP, how many P can you play every day? I would try to dump Shark for virtually anyone. Edubray Ramos and try to lock up Phillies? That might even be too low haha

        • PD says:
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          @JB Gilpin: we can start up to 9 daily.. I leave my relievers in daily & roll in who’s starting depending on matchups.

          Nola & smyly.. buhbye. Will try And flip shark for edubray

          And thanks!

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @PD: Ah nice, yeah makes sense to own a ton then. Glad to help, any time!

  25. Ryan Doumit says:
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    Why the downgrade for Aaron Sanchez? He’s been pretty lights out.

    My SPs are:
    – Scherzer
    – Sale
    – JFer
    – Aaron Sanchez
    – Darvish
    – J. Guerra
    – Bundy
    – Snell
    – Bauer

    To get Andrew Miller in a 12 Team H2H (12 pitching categories), would you offer Aaron Sanchez?

    • PD says:
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      @Ryan Doumit: my guess it’s b/c it’s b/c he is gonna end up in the pen eventually.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Ryan Doumit: @PD: Yup, what PD said. Innings limit/bullpen. Mannnn your starters are nasty. Yeah I think Sanchez possibly losing a rotation spot is worth Miller

  26. My Thread Count Is High says:
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    So thoughts on Skaggs, overall line looked nice but Ive read his change up looked rough and after starting out throwin 94-95, he settled in at 91-92 on his fast ball. So streamer or keeper for my staff? I ask because , even though Nola’s dead to you lol, he does get the Braves today, and I have considered streaming him. But I dont want to cut a guy like Skaggs if you see him continuing to rise in the standings.

    Shoemaker looked strong last night early and then faded fast, so while I know you said you liked my staff as is, I feel like its not as strong as it needs to be to win my league. Nola, Paxton, Bradley, Sonny Gray, Odorizzi and E-Rod are the best guys on the wire. And of course If I wanted to part with Bregman I could choose any 2 of Teheran, Eickhoff, Walker, Freeman, Cutch, or Segura.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @My Thread Count Is High: Keep him! Might as well, I def would over risking Nola. Skaggs next start vs. Red Sox is a little risky though.

      Shoe wasn’t that bad… I watched the Brewers game, and even though we were terrible, Bradley still didn’t look particularly special to me. Not interested in the wire. Meh, yeah hold Bregman for his keeper price over that. Well, Segura would help your SS… Segura and Cutch I’d think about

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @My Thread Count Is High: Uggghhh I went to bed thinking Shoemaker was done, and just saw his ERA AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH. Gotta hold him though

      • My Thread Count Is High says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Thanks man, only problem if I did decide to bite on Cutch/Segura is I’d have to drop someone and I have no idea who that would be. I’m going to have the same problem when Kimbrel returns. Agree with you on the wire, although I still find myself wanting to love Nola(who looks to have some easy match ups going forward) and Paxton ROS , it’d probably be foolish to drop Skaggs, Manaea, Snell or Gausman for them.

        • My Thread Count Is High says:
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          @My Thread Count Is High: Also thoughts on Odorizzi, has he righted the ship…hes on the wire. Also still unconcerned on Bregman 0 for everything debut? Should I move him(with or without Dahl) for 2 of Cutch, Segura, Teheran, T.Walker or Profar? And if I trade Bregman alone who’s my drop? Finally if I stand pat who’s my drop to reactivate Kimbrel?

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @My Thread Count Is High: Yeahhhh, Gausman is the only one I’d consider dropping right now.

            I think I would go for the gold. Banners fly forever and Gurriel might make things crowded to finish this year. I’d take it and lose Gausman, then reassess when Kimbrel is back. But only taking Cutch/Sergua as the 2. Odorizzi is still pretty blah to me

            • My Thread Count Is High says:
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              @JB Gilpin: Just saw this, have made a variety of moves since posing the question…including flipping Pomeranz and Pits new closer for Price. So now I have the open spot for Kimbrel return today. But no room to do the Bregman 2 for 1 without a drop…I’ll be on the look out for the new blog.

  27. Scott says:
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    I learned last night, that if they’re not in your 100, you can’t even start them vs. the Braves.

    • Scott says:
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      @Scott: Though I’m still scared to start Nola against them. Jekyll and Hyde!

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Scott: Hahaha, yeah he JUST got the boot too. He has like curveball special sauce he can only use for 4-5 starts a year apparently… Yeah I am pretty much out on Nola, I’m not using him anywhere!

  28. G-OZ says:
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    Just watched Nola’s uninspiring 5 innings against Atlanta – do I hold him or pickup – Bundy, Gray, Taillon, Manea, Moore, Smyly, Paxton from waivers. Also have Stroman who’s been terrible.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @G-OZ: Sorry just now responding, was out of town this weekend. I think I would go Manaea, definitely making a move

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