While drafting this NFBC 2022 fantasy baseball team, I’m simultaneously deep into writing my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings, which will be released starting around mid-January. (Our Patreon already has the bulk of them; as I finish each ranking, I put it up on there.) Was a fun experiment to see if not having completed rankings would change my drafting. If I haven’t yet decided on whether or not I want a player, would that let me be more open to drafting someone? I’m not sure. My guess was it might’ve. For unstints, if I didn’t want, say, Cody Bellinger again, would I be a big enough dolt to draft him again since I haven’t finished my rankings? Would I be a large enough idiot to actually draft Cody Bellinger again in 2022 if I hadn’t yet finished my research? Would I have an obvious screw loose, potentially appearing like a person who doesn’t have an actual brain, and draft Cody Bellinger again? Would I be a large-scale imbecile that would draft Cody Bellinger again if I simply hadn’t finished researching? Surely, I would not, right? Because I rostered him in multiple leagues last year, so I don’t need something as silly as my own rankings to know Cody Bellinger sucks giant Great Dane balls, right? RIGHT?! Actually, wrong. I’m just that dumb. Anyway, here’s my NFBC draft recap; it’s a 15-team, two-catcher, draft and hold league that goes 50 rounds and has no waivers:

C: Mike Zunino (19)
C: Omar Narvaez (20)
1B: Freddie Freeman (2)
2B: Luis Urias (11)
SS: Wander Franco (3)
3B: Ke’Bryan Hayes (13)
MI: Vidal Brujan (16)
CI: Ryan Mountcastle (5)
OF: Luis Robert (1, 14)
OF: Cody Bellinger (7)
OF: Adolis Garcia (10)
OF: Andrew Vaughn (15)
OF: Brandon Marsh (21)
UTIL: Patrick Wisdom (23)

Bench: Steven Kwan (25), Nick Solak (27), Bryan De La Cruz (29), Dylan Moore (32), Leury Garcia (33), Kyle Farmer (34), Victor Caratini (37), Jace Peterson (38), Ryan Vilade (40), Josh VanMeter (43), Riley Adams (44), Yonathan Daza (46), DJ Stewart (47), Niko Goodrum (49)

P: Freddy Peralta (4)
P: Jose Berrios (6)
P: Sean Manaea (8)
P: Ranger Suarez (9)
P: Noah Syndergaard (12)
P: Tanner Houck (14)
P: Ken Giles (17)
P: Kyle Finnegan (18)
P: Tony Gonsolin (22)

Bench: Nate Pearson (24), Devin Williams (26), Merrill Kelly (28), Richard Rodriguez (30), Tucker Davidson (31), Cody Morris (35), Bryse Wilson (36), A.J. Puk (39), Griffin Canning (41), Logan Allen (42), Deivi Garcia (45), Miguel Yajure (48), Touki Toussaint (50)

DID YOU GET ‘YOUR’ GUYS? DO YOU EVEN HAVE GUYS? WITHOUT READING YOUR RANKINGS YET, I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT TO MAKE OF ANY OF THIS.

As I was saying in the opening–

I SKIPPED THAT.

–I don’t know yet who ‘my’ guys are, Mr. Bolden Al Capps. Some guys are obviously more attractive to me already, and I’m not talking about attractive like Giantbonerlo Stanton. I’ve written sleeper posts already for a few — Andrew Vaughn sleeper, Luis Urias sleeper, Brandon Marsh sleeper, and more are coming. Trust.

TRUST!? WHAT ARE YOU, A 15-YEAR-OLD DOUCHEBAG?

Tough, but fair. You know what’s pretty fascinating (to me at least). People follow ADP like it wasn’t formed by a couple dozen people in October who likely had no idea about anything to do with free agents (of which there’s still more guys without contracts), and just a group of people who are winging it like everyone else. Yet — again with some stank — YET, you do something like draft Steven Kwan in the 25th round and people say stuff like, “Wow, you could’ve waited.” According to what? This janky sample size ADP? Okay, but why? Why is anyone following ADP at this point? Drafted right after Kwan was Brady Singer, Hunter Dozier, Connor Joe, Anthony Bender and Wilmer Flores. Apples and oranges a bit with some of those guys, but can you imagine getting to June and being like, “Damn, I wish I had Wilmer Flores?”

Also, it really makes you question ADP, in general. Think about this: In October, a couple dozen people with obvious gambling addictions decided to start drafting fantasy baseball leagues. (Hey, I’m way better for starting in November!) Then people in November and December follow this janky ADP from October and reenforce it. Then we get to February and people are like, “You took Luis Robert in the 1st? You are seriously handsome but just as dumb.” Why? Because some people said so in October, and that’s been getting reenforced ever since? I don’t know, guys and five girl readers. I’m beginning to question ADP, which feels a bit like questioning God, if I’m being honest. Think about this, when you get to May, are you like, “Wow, I can’t believe I was able to get Syndergaard at 167 overall?” Or are you like, “I have Syndergaard on my team, and I don’t remember in the slightest where I drafted him.” Like a teamster, I’m leaning on the latter.

OKAY, THAT WAS THE MOST BORING DIATRIBE ABOUT ADP I’VE EVER READ, BUT YOU DID MENTION STEVEN KWAN, SO…UH…WHO? IS HE RELATED TO HAPPY KWANZAA?

Kinda surprised how little noise there’s been about Steven Kwan. This might be partially my fault. He’s a rookie, and I didn’t write up a fantasy baseball rookie outlook post for him, like I did for so many others. He came to my attention late, only notified by Baseball America’s Geoff. (Homeboy’s gone from Prospect Ralph to Prospector Ralph to Podcaster Ralph to Podcaster Geoff to Baseball America’s Geoff. If he tries to change to Geoffrey, I’m out.) So, I was told essentially that Happy Steven Kwanzaa is a .300 hitter, who the Guardians protected, so there’s no reason he doesn’t get run this year in the outfield. There might be ten hitters total in the majors who you can project credibly as a .300 hitter, and two are less-than-five-homer, some-steals duds like Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal, and one is no-power and no-speed, Luis Arraez. Kwan’s developing power, has speed and won’t get you laughed at if you project him for a batting title. So, when people are like, “Damn, you could’ve waited to grab Steven Kwan ten rounds later,” it’s like, “Why?” Seriously, who cares? Because there’s some arbitrary ADP assigned to him? Whatever.

YOU SOUND ALMOST AS MAD AS ME. I LIKE THAT. OKAY, SO GIVE ME SOME TAKEAWAYS, OR, BETTER YET, WHY DID YOU TREAT THIS LIKE A 5X4 LEAGUE AND NOT DRAFT SAVES?

There’s a few big advantages to drafting this early. You grab Ryan Mountcastle at 59th overall and people are like, “Hey, Grey, did you hit your head?” Then I release my rankings and show how high I am on Mountcastle and why, and his price goes up. Or, in a more general sense, a bunch of ‘perts start talking about Steven Kwan; the Guardians announce he’s their two-hole hitter and the starting left fielder and his price is going to zoom up. The big disadvantage? I legit have no idea who’s closing for at least ten teams. Is Ken Giles healthy? Is Kyle Finnegan the Nats’ closer? I was happy about getting Richard Rodriguez at pick 449th overall. He’s a free agent, and I’d be shocked if he’s not working someone’s 8th or 9th by April. In general, I think my NFBC team is going to be competitive. Assuming Cody Bellinger doesn’t take my entire team’s players out the night before Opening Day for some drinks and gets them lost in woods for six months.

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JB
JB
6 months ago

Grey,

Thanks for your help this season! Made some improvements in my dynasty lg and won both yahoo re draft lgs!

Listed below is the dynasty roster: What 25 would you keep sir? Cheers

10 Team Dynasty League (31 man roster/Keep 25)&(10 minor slots)
6×6 with OBP/DT
6×6 with QS over wins and Holds & Saves are separate cats

C:
1st: J Walsh
2nd W. Merrifield
3rd T Edman
SS J Baez
MI G Hampson
CI C Bellinger
OF G Springer
OF N Castellanos
OF B Harper
OF J D Martinez
OF C Blackmon
DH Adolis Garcia
U R Laureano

Bench: L Urias, K Hiura, M Ozuna, N Lopez, A Toro-Hernandez, Santander, V Robles

P: M Scherzer
M Fried
J Urias
A Manoah
C Burnes
S Bieber
T Houck
V Gutierrez

RP: D Williams,
L Trivino
C Doval
C Javier

Minor Slots (10): F Alvarez, A Rutschman, L Garcia, J Miranda, Kahil Watson, S Frelick, E Florial, H Hernandez, P Crow-Armstrong, N Lodolo,

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
6 months ago

What happened to Paddack? Is he a bounce back candidate? If you could get him in a trade for cheap, would you?

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Grey
6 months ago

Ok thanks man. Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays. Enjoy

Pat Frost
Pat Frost
6 months ago

Great write up Grey. Love reading these. I’m definitely interested in joining Jan draft. Robert/Freeman combo /chefskiss
Merry Christmas to your Italian half!

leon
leon
6 months ago

Kyle lewis or brandon marsh. Dynasty 16 man. Both are $0

Phil
Phil
6 months ago

Greyt stuff, Grey…

Is there any way that you could include the link to the entire draft board?

Hernan
Hernan
Reply to  Grey
6 months ago

https://draft.shgn.com/nfc/plain/dp/40/grid , don’t know if it works… but, that’s the draft board…

Smitty
Reply to  Hernan
6 months ago

Very fine team Hernan! Burrito Boyz will be tough! In retrospect took way too much risk going with 4 SP’s coming off injury, even with optimistic outlooks. Steamer does have deGrom, Verlander, McCullers and Carrasco at 152, 175, 147, and 144 projected IP respectfully. Guess I’m just a sucker for name value. If that wasn’t enough took Laureano (out for 27 games), and B. Witt the ultimate high risk/reward rook. I did try to stock plenty of pitching depth to cover any eventual breakdowns. Podcast hates me, but hope to have balance and like my club. Enjoyed the very tough competition as well, thanks Grey!
C Contreras
C Barnhart
1B Abreu
3B Arenado
CI CJ Cron
2B E.Escobar
SS Bichette
MI B. Witt
OF Judge
OF Laureano
OF K.Hernandez
OF AJ Pollock
OF R.Ortega
DH Schwindel
J.Lowe, Barrero, Gregorious, LaStella, Siri, R.Perez, Y.Hernandez, Espinal, Vierling, S.Huff, Pillar, H.Alberto, Fraley, Au.Martin, Langeliers

SP deGrom
SP Verlander
SP McCullers
SP Skubal
SP J. Ryan
SP Carrasco
RP Romano
RP L.Sims
RP Fullmer
SP’s – N.Cortes, Elisier, Pineda, SanMartin, D.Peterson, Espino, Cavalli, Brash, Balazovic
RP’s – Alcala, L. Jackson, Moreta

Smitty
Reply to  Grey
6 months ago

Yep good points all, especially deGrom. Wanted S. Marte there, shoulda went that way…..

Phil
Phil
Reply to  Hernan
6 months ago

Thank you!

UkraineGameToYou
UkraineGameToYou
6 months ago

Totally agree on the ADP mumbo jumbo. Next year you should set up a lol draft in October to screw up the ADP just to see how much it impacts later drafts.

Nothing toooo outlandish, but things like taking the Marco Gonzales, Nick Solaks, Alec Bohms, and Jesus Aguilars of the world in the top 75.

Stl Squat Cobblers
Stl Squat Cobblers
6 months ago

Solid team me goo-roo!

In my lone DC so far, I went Kiermeier/Josh Lowe…something tells me about ima rather have your Brujan.

Here are my CIs: Dalbec, Tork, Jung, Miranda, Wisdom, Bellinger…Will I have 1b/3b/CI filled the entire year?

I’m with you on Saves…absolutely despise paying market rates for these over-priced slugs. But what I despise even more is my inability to identify cheap closers than keep the job more than one week. Last year: 10 DCs-no more than one closer on any team though I took 6-8 stabs at guessing the closer. Finished bottom 3 in Saves in each league (having sold myself on Amir Garrett! even before your rankings came out.) brutal

Stl Squat Cobblers
Stl Squat Cobblers
Reply to  Grey
6 months ago

Agreed on all points. Drafting RPs this early is even more of a crapshoot. As a result, I likely overpaid big time for RPs (save for Sborz) in my recent DC:

C-Garver-14, D Jansen-21 (Jeffers, Dom Nunez)

CI-Dalbec-13, Tork-16, Jung-19, Wisdom-23, (Miranda, LaMonte ‘Sanford’s Son’ Wade)

MI-Albies-2, Adames-10, IKF-11, (E Sosa, JeremyPena, Brendan Donovan)

OF-Acuna-1.11, Judge-3, Bellinger-7, Adell-15, KyleLewis-17 (Leody, V Reyes, JoshLowe, Kiermeier, Pache, D Hill, Piscotty Doesn’t Know!!)

SPs
Ray-4
McClanahan-8
Ed Rod-9
Matz-18
Paddack-22
Elieser-24
Pearson-26
(Ed Cab-29, Roansy, Mitch White, T Hearn, Manning, D Price, Winn, Beede, E Swanson)

RPs
Kenley-5
Gallegos-6
(Bednar-12, Lucas Sims-20, Sborz-44)

Besides your dislike for my pitching;) any other thoughts Fantasy Master Lothario Do Not Abbreviate or There Will Be Hell to Pay??

Stl Squat Cobblers
Stl Squat Cobblers
Reply to  Grey
6 months ago

Agreed. Me AVG is hurtin’ and I went too upside-y on both hitting and pitching…U did a better job of drafting ABs/IPs and I like your team’s AVG a lot.

Hernan( Better Burritos)
Hernan( Better Burritos)
6 months ago

This draft was a lot of fun, specially drafting right after You, got snipped quite a bunch of times.., drafting close to wheels is very tricky, there’s players you are taking 10, 15, even 20 spots vs ADP’s, specially steals and saves guys….

from 15 , I went , C: W. Smith (5), C: S Murphy(18) 1B; Votto (11) 2B Albies (1, 15) SS, Lindor(3), 3B Devers(2) MI ,McMahon(14) CI, Mancini(13) OF: Haniger(8), Meadows(9), Baddoo(10), Josh Rojas(17), Yaztrezemski(19) UT: Kepler (20)

Bench: Brown(23), Dozier(26), Kemp(30), Slater(34), Ahmed(37) Allen, C (38), A. Barnes, C (39), Chang(40), Engel (41)

Pitchers are , Giolito(4), Musgrove (6), Darvish (7), Scott Barlow, KC (12), A Wood(15), C Javier(16) Whitlock(21), Lauer (22), Heaney (24) Singer(25), Dunning(27) , Robert Suarez, SD (28), Bumgarner (29), Sulser (31), Art Warren (32), Howard (33) Long (36) M Keller(43), Luetge(44, R Stephenson (45)…..

We have a lot of fringe, favorable matchup type SPs, some darts at saves( hopefully Red Sox install Whitlock there), with Suarez( 67 saves last two years in Japan), Sulser, Art Warren…..

We drafted most our hitters with “having regular job”/playing time as base.., also tried to stay young( except Votto), avoid guys coming from injuries…, I think team is light in speed, hopefully guys like Baddoo, Albies, Lindor, Rojas combine for 70/75 and 5 others get about 5 to 7, get the 110 ish goal….., Draft was a lot of Fun!!!!!!, Cheers.., missed David Duffy and his Apocalyptic Angels…..

Hernan
Hernan
Reply to  Grey
6 months ago

Yeah, Thanks for the props.., Our pitching has a lot of question marks, We found some meh starters with severe Home/Road splits, will try to exploit that, some concern with Javier’s role, but, to me, he’s a starter, was money the first 2 moths of 2021, when he got like 9 starts, hopefully Astros use him as a starter, if not, maybe he goes over 100 IP with 125Ks and solid ratios, 8/10 Wins due to being on good team with great offense…, I was criticized , lol by some guy that has podcast( was in draft) for taking him and Seth Brown too early…, I think The A’s are a team that will provide the most ” Out of Nowhere ” Fantasy guys( the Adolis Garcia factor)…, specially on offense, specially if they trade Matt Olson.., cheap guys like Brown , who already has a regular job in outfield, could slide to 1B, also DH.., hit 20 homers in like 250 PAs , also sprint speed is in top 70% MLB…, with Marte gone, Laureano suspended , etc.., guys like him and Quad A types like Dalton Kelly (1B/OF that went 27/17 in Rays AAA Durham) and Cody Thomas (18 homers in 59 games before getting hurt at AAA, former College QB( great athlete)) could get a chance and provide some fantasy gold…, you never know….

hot corner
hot corner
6 months ago

It was an interesting draft. Like you, I (Team Dopp) took a few players that made me throw up in my mouth a little but thought the price was right. Not a fan of Bregman but pick #94 seemed good. I hate Gary Sanchez but just need him to put up the same numbers as last year to get value at pick #297. He did come in at C12 on the Player Rater last year.

hot corner
hot corner
Reply to  Grey
6 months ago

Good luck and happy holidays to you as well.

david
david
6 months ago

Hi Grey
Can you please rank multi position players by where they have the most value.
Thanks as always.

David

The Original Whatever
The Original Whatever
6 months ago

Hey Grey,

Winker @12 for Luis Urias @7?

Current keepers:
Vlad, T Anderson, Machado, Judge, Winker, Renfroe, Alcantara, Rodon, R Suarez, (J Ryan/Lane Thomas)

Which side you taking?

Thanks.

The Original Whatever
The Original Whatever
Reply to  Grey
6 months ago

sorry for lack of info. That is 2022 salary.

The Original Whatever
The Original Whatever
Reply to  Grey
6 months ago

Thanks Grey

The Original Whatever
The Original Whatever
6 months ago

I saw you drafted Dylan Moore. You think he can be resurrected?

jbona3
jbona3
6 months ago

Love the writeup…I’m surprised you took Adolis in the 10th, as an owner in a keeper league I’ve been trying to figure out what to do with him. It seems like the league figured him out in the 2nd half and his performance fell off pretty dramatically, but looking at some of the underlying metrics it doesn’t really show any reason for the drop off. What’s your take on him? Is he worth keeping at $5?

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
6 months ago

Holy cow, you really took Bellinger again after last year’s disaster?

I had him on a keeper team and cut him. No thanks. I’m sure he’ll be better than last year. But outside of two super months, his career has been pretty average or worse overall. I guess he’s a good buy low candidate that you might get in some later round. But no thank you.

I learned something when I was a child. When you touch a hot stove, you get burned. You don’t touch it again. Hard Pass.

Dr Hocker
Dr Hocker
Reply to  Harley Earl
6 months ago

Great Dane balls. Does anyone have a recipe?

If I had to draft today, after having seen this I realize my game needs sharpening. Adolis,Brujan,Ranger, Giles…..
All guys who had slipped off my radar. Thanks for posting this.

Tom
Tom
Reply to  Harley Earl
6 months ago

Grey, I’m in total agreement, ADP especially this early doesn’t mean much. It’s all about team formulation. Last year I was grabbing Hendriks in round 3 and heard from many that it was too early for a closer. Now Hendriks is consistently going in round 2 and any of the “surefire” closers are gone by the end of round 5. Of course, that will probably be unique to these draft and holds, as you explained there is no waiver wire. Also, in these NFBC draft and holds on top of the league prize you can win an overall prize. You may be able to win your league if you punt saves but you kill any shot at winning the overall.
Which brings me to your team, looks well balanced, saves look like your biggest question mark. The pick I’m most surprised about, Noah Syndergard. You have been out on him for quite a while. I’m sure getting him in Rd 12, a steep discount from other years is the reason. The pick you didn’t make that I’m most surprised about, I thought for sure you would have Kelenic on this team. I guess returning to Bellinger was all you could stomach.
Hopefully you guys do another one of these, I’d love to get in and defend my title from last year.

Tom
Tom
Reply to  Grey
6 months ago

Definitely interested, keep me in the loop. Thanks!

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
Reply to  Grey
6 months ago

Haha!! You may be right.

I could see him smoking all the guys he burned last year by being himself again and blowing up. I just move on from guys once they burn me.

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
6 months ago

Grey!!!

Awesome!

a. Love the team. A few comments.

1. Is that Logan Allen the LHP or the RHP?
2. I like Steven Kwan in this setup but in my dynasty keep forever startup, he’s not really useful. 0.290/10/10 is not useful for me.
3. Nice stable of pitchers, like the bench a lot.
4. Great minds think alike, fools seldom differ in reference to some of your SP and some of mine (see ‘b’ below).
5. Good luck.

b. Had a practical question. In my 4×4 dynasty 12-team league (pitching cats: WHIP, K/9, SVH, QS), we only have a 1000 IP minimum, no maximum. I was doing the math and here’s what I came up with.

1. If I start 6 high-end relievers (to gun for K/9, SVH and WHIP) all year from 0 to 162, I’ll have 3 slots for SP. That means, 6×70=420 and 1000-420=580 IP and 580 IP/26 weeks=22.3077 IP/week from 3 starters or on average 7.44 IP per start which is impossible.
2. If 5 RP, 4 SP (using the same math above), then 4 SP need to average 25 IP/week or 6.25 IP/week/SP which also seems unlikely.
3. If 4 RP, 5 SP, then 5 SP need to get 5.54 IP/week/SP which also seems high over a 26-week season.

So my questions. This is my pitching in that league (below). Should I keep it as is (given I’m sure a few of them will be injured through the season) or should I trade 2 RP for 1 SP? What would be your strategy to max out on all categories? I’m thinking max on SP earlier (April/May) with a normal Feb/Mar ST which would mean some of the RP would be lost or?

SP-Cease, Gonsolin, Manoah, Houck, Musgrove, Ryan, RSuarez, Kopech, Roansy, CMorris
RP-Hendriks, Doval, CGreen, Iglesias, Kittredge, Whitlock
MiLB-Cole Henry, Landon Knack, Lodolo, Ty Madden, Walston, OWhite, Eury Perez, Logan Allen (LHP)

c. Norm MacDonald quote of the day for December 20, 2021

‘A California man has sued McDonald’s after claiming to get AIDS from one of their pork sandwiches. McDonald’s disputes the claim but the man insists saying “I got AIDS from that pork sandwich just as sure as I’m a male prostitute.”‘

d. Marx Brothers quote of the day for December 20, 2021

Woman: ‘This leaves me speechless.’

Groucho: ‘Well, see that you remain that way. You’re just wasting your breath, and that’s no great loss either.’

Cheers,
Ante

Ante Galic
Ante Galic
Reply to  Grey
6 months ago

Grey!!

a. We need to start a brief report on players with similar names on every team. To wit,

1. Two Logan Allens are on the Guardians!!? Logan Allen the sucky-ish RHP and the hot prospect LHP (Check The Itch’s recent report on The Guardians).
2. Reiver (The River) Sanmartin and Something something Santillan. One is the reason the Reds let Miley walk and the other is a reliever with a good k/9 but bad BB/9.

b. Makes a lot of sense. If Doval gets to 15-20 saves by the ASB, I’ll trade him to the guy in the comments of the draft who went gaga over my pick of Doval.

Cheers,
Ante

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
Reply to  Grey
6 months ago

Grey!!!

a. Both LHP!!! One is 24, the sucky-ish one. One is 23, the prospect!!

b. Gaa!

c. Luis Matos, though not on the same team. A guy drafted the wrong Luis Matos MiLB (Phillies) in our supp. draft even after you can see the right Luis Matos (SF) was already gone.

Cheers,
Ante

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
Reply to  Grey
6 months ago

Grey!!!

Sorry. Now I’ve reverse jinxed him!

Cheers,
Ante

Chuckie Miller
Chuckie Miller
6 months ago

Ranger! I like to see that. Was/am wondering what your thoughts will be on him in 2022. This was/is a good sign.