Like someone practicing tantric sex, this has been a long time coming. The only thing that nearly stopped me from writing this post was because I wrote a Willy Adames sleeper, but that’s no reason to not think a Luis Urias sleeper is possible. *counting double negatives* One “no reason,” two “not think”…are “nearly” or “but” negatives too? Okay, ya know what, double or triple negatives aside, Adames’s sleeperiness doesn’t stop Urias’s sleeperitude. Not sure why this year has worked out this way, but I did a Brandon Marsh sleeper and a Jo Adell sleeper, and followed that with Willy Adames and Luis Urias sleepers. Sometimes these things happen. They shouldn’t affect us in any negative way. It reminds me of last year when everyone wanted to bail on Jose Ramirez because Francisco Lindor was traded. It didn’t stop Jose Ramirez from having a great year, and Willy Adames breaking out won’t stop Luis Urias from breaking out too, or vice versa. In fact (Grey’s got more!), one player breaking out might help the other. More offense the better! Maybe Christian Yelich can stop smelling up baseball’s whole ass, and remember how he’s better with a Launch Angle that wouldn’t be classified as “premeditated worm murder,” then the entire Brewers offense can start clicking again. Though, we don’t need other guys to be good for Luis Urias (or Willy Adames) to hit, as just mentioned with Jose Ramirez.

Last year, Luis Urias, or Lurias if you’re in a rush, went 23/5/.249/.345/.445 and a .340 wOBA. If you’ve been following Razzball for an Urban Dictionary minute, which is actually a long time, you know I’ve been loving Lurias since he went 19/7/.315 in only 73 games of Triple-A in the Padres’ farm system. Oops, I forgot, PETA said I have to call “farm system” an “animal prison complex.” So, what can we expect from Luis Urias for 2022 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Psyche! Before we get into the Luis Urias sleeper post, just wanted to announce that I’ve begun to roll out my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings on our Patreon. It’s an early Xmas miracle! Like randomly putting on Showtime, and Porky’s just starting. Anyway II, the Luis Urias sleeper:

Not to go too far down this rabbit hole, but the “what are you doin’ baby” Steamer moment of the day is they give Luis Urias 20 homers in 502 ABs, after he hit 23 in 490 ABs. Now, not every player gets more power as they get older, but a 24-year-old in one of the best home run parks? C’mon. In fairness, Milwaukee wasn’t “that” great last year for homers. About 12th in the league for homers (10th across last three years). They prolly added a humidor. At this point, I assume everyone has a humidor. MLB added Cuba to the international free agency market on one condition: Every team must buy one of their old humidors, which used to house their cigars. Any hoo! Urias had a 38% fly ball rate last year with a 16% HR/FB, which gets you to around 24 homers, but he regularly had a higher HR/FB% in the minors. All parks and pitchers aren’t made as goofy as minor league parks, so won’t go there, but he’s a 22% HR/FB away from being Rafael Devers for power. Someone more realistically Urias compares well to for power and average is Carlos Correa. Carlos Correa is a 27/.270 hitter and Urias is too, but with 5-7 steals. Think about the likelihood that someone will draft Urias before Correa, even though Urias has more upside and speed.

Yes, I said he’s comparable to Correa for average. It was always a little confusing why everyone thought Luis Urias would struggle to hit .240. He had a 65-grade hit tool coming through the minors, and, as said above, hit .315 his last big year in Triple-A at 22 years of age. That was with a 18.3% K-rate and he had a 20.4% last year in the majors with a 11.1% walk rate. Does any of this sound like a guy who will only hit .249? How about after this: Urias had a .280 BABIP with 9.3 barrels per batted ball event% (Correa was 9.4). Also, Urias was a much better hitter in the 2nd half — .266 with 11 homers in only 203 ABs. Not to get goofy with the prorating, but that’s 33 homers and .270 in 600 ABs. In the 2nd half, his K% was 16.7, down from 23% in the 1st half, and his walk rate went up from 10.3% to 12.1%. Oh, and with a .850 OPS. Guess who had a .850 OPS last year. I’ll give you one hint, his name rhymes with Schmarlos Schorrea. Oh, and Schmarlos Schorrea still has no speed! (Also, that was essentially the same OPS as Pete Alonso, Salvador Perez, Mookie Betts and Jared Walsh). After this year, it won’t sound weird to mention Luis Urias in the same breath as those guys. For 2022, I’ll give Luis Urias projections of 80/27/88/.271/6 in 556 ABs with a chance for more.

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Jack Straw
Jack Straw
8 months ago

Thanks Grey – love the piece.

Standard NLonly 5x 5 roto –

Who do you prefer in each of these 3 Lurias scenarios:

L. Urias (8) or K. Hayes (11)

L. Urias (8) or Avisail Garcia (8)

L. Urias (8) or J. Urias (21)

Jack Straw
Jack Straw
8 months ago

Thanks Grey – love the piece.

Standard NLonly 5x 5 roto –

Who do you prefer in each of these 3 Lurias scenarios:

L. Urias (8) or K. Hayes (11)

L. Urias (8) or Avisail Garcia (8)

L. Urias (8) or J. Urias (21)

Jack Straw
Jack Straw
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

Thanks Grey. I like Lurias at $8 – good value for 2B/SS/3B/MI/CI eligibility in an NL only league.

I agree with you on the breakout potential this year – as the season progresses last year, his strikeout rate went down, his walk rate increased, his fly ball rate increased, and his hard hit rate increased; all great signs for a 25 year old!

1) When referencing your earlier sleeper articles – do you prefer L. Urias ($8) in NL only league or Adolis ($8) in an AL only league?

2)with respect to the Julio Urias ($21) query, would Lurias ($8) and Hayes ($11) makes sense or the Lurias ($8) and Avisail ($8) to acquire Julio?

rocket
rocket
8 months ago

Awesome article. Can’t get enough. Any prospect lists coming out soon? Mid season prospect draft is coming up for me!

Sport
Sport
8 months ago

Late to the part today with a busy morning and I’m really glad I check in to see today’s sleeper! I had read in some comments you thought he could be 30-10, with 10 being a little high, but I had not counted on the AVG being closer to 270 than 240! With him having 2B,SS, and 3B eligibility he becomes a definite target me. Correct me if I’m wrong, but he could end up with better numbers than Marcus Semien now? I have Semien in a dynasty and probably looking to flip him and I may have a target (plus another piece).

Thank you for the write up! Loving them!

Sport
Sport
Reply to  Grey
8 months ago

In a dynasty format would you move Semien for Andrew Vaughn and Urias? This would allow me to move Eugenio Saurez out of my CI slot. Not sure he accepts it but it’s worth a shot.

PDXEXPRESS
PDXEXPRESS
8 months ago

Happy holidays from the Pacific Northwest!

I’ll be doing a keep-forever draft of this year’s rookies soon and was curious how you’d rank the following five hitters and three pitchers for long term performance. I’d appreciate your point of view even though it’s SO early in these guys’ careers.

Also, awesome content this off season.

Vaughn, Kellenic, Marsh, Sanchez, Kirilloff

Joe Ryan, Kopech, Tyler Megill

Thanks!

PDXEXPRESS
PDXEXPRESS
Reply to  Grey
8 months ago

Thanks, and have an awesome day!

Mike
Mike
8 months ago

Who would you rather have at 3B next year? Urias or Eduardo Escobar?

The Original Whatever
The Original Whatever
8 months ago

Hey Grey,

Ok, so not sure if you remember from couple of days ago. 12 team mixed obp keeper with max ten keepers.

I was able to trade Cole for Story. And the Judge owner is willing to trade for Story.

Do you still recommend trading Story for Judge?

They are both the same contract for 2022 @22.

I guess either guy has risk. Will Story be anywhere close to his Coors Field level with a new team? Will Judge stay healthy a second season in a row?

Current keepers:
Vlad (27)
Tim Anderson (22)
Machado (36)
Winker (12)
Renfroe (8)
Alcantara,Rodon,R Suarez,JoeRyan (all 4 are a buck)

The Original Whatever
The Original Whatever
Reply to  Grey
8 months ago

Thanks Grey. I think the best part of my keepers is the core 4 arms for 4 bucks.

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
8 months ago

Grey!!!

Awesome!!

a. Liked Urias in the 2nd half, is there a chance he’s only a 2nd half/hot weather hitter?

b. Nothing new on the fantasy news front. Any news on how the CBA talks are going?

c. Norm MacDonald quote of the day for December 16, 2021

‘French car maker Renault confirmed this week their plans to cut 1735 jobs next year. The company said they were trying to reduce staff because “they haven’t sold a car since 1978.”‘

d. Marx Brothers quote of the day for December 16, 2021

‘Getting off the subject of Marilyn Monroe-and don’t think it’s easy-I’d like to say a few unkind words about the miserly Scrooge known in bookish circles as “the browser.” I’m sure you have seen him in many a bookstore. He reads a review in The New Yorker, Atlantic Monthly or The Saturday Review of some new book that sounds pretty tasty. Fortified with this briefing, he casually enters a bookstore, ferrets out a copy of the book, and if he is a rapid reader (or “skimmer,” as he is known in the trade) he gets through it pretty thoroughly in forty-five minutes. He then scrams unobtrusively through a side door so that he can come back another day and help pauperize some other hard-working author. In the event that the owner of the bookstore is foolish enough to ask if he can be of assistance, this creep (knowing he is trapped) will be crafty enough to ask for Frangams History of the Chinese Wall or A Comprehensive Compendium of the Argine Confederacy. A man will think nothing of paying four or five dollars for a pair of pants, but he’ll think a long time before he’ll pony up the same amount of money for a book.’

Cheers,
Ante

Ante Galic
Ante Galic
Reply to  Grey
8 months ago

Grey!!

Thanks man.

a. Sorry, thought you’d like the story about the browser in the book store. Instead of Marx Brothers quote I should have written Marx Brothers short story. Good thing 2021 is almost over and I can move to George Carlin quote of the day, right?

b. Any plans for new years? For Jan 1, 2021 I had planned 2 nights in Kameha Grand Hotel in Bonn (they have a deal for 2 nights in their 5 star hotel for 120$/night, all wellness, indoor and outdoor pool, his/her bathrobes of the finest quality for free. Of course I traveled light and took everything including the bathrobes which are complimentary.). Anyway, my wife said we’re going nowhere. So that’s that. Same for this year I guess.

Cheers,
Ante