Like someone practicing tantric sex, this has been a long time coming. The only thing that nearly stopped me from writing this post was because I wrote a Willy Adames sleeper, but that’s no reason to not think a Luis Urias sleeper is possible. *counting double negatives* One “no reason,” two “not think”…are “nearly” or “but” negatives too? Okay, ya know what, double or triple negatives aside, Adames’s sleeperiness doesn’t stop Urias’s sleeperitude. Not sure why this year has worked out this way, but I did a Brandon Marsh sleeper and a Jo Adell sleeper, and followed that with Willy Adames and Luis Urias sleepers. Sometimes these things happen. They shouldn’t affect us in any negative way. It reminds me of last year when everyone wanted to bail on Jose Ramirez because Francisco Lindor was traded. It didn’t stop Jose Ramirez from having a great year, and Willy Adames breaking out won’t stop Luis Urias from breaking out too, or vice versa. In fact (Grey’s got more!), one player breaking out might help the other. More offense the better! Maybe Christian Yelich can stop smelling up baseball’s whole ass, and remember how he’s better with a Launch Angle that wouldn’t be classified as “premeditated worm murder,” then the entire Brewers offense can start clicking again. Though, we don’t need other guys to be good for Luis Urias (or Willy Adames) to hit, as just mentioned with Jose Ramirez.
Last year, Luis Urias, or Lurias if you’re in a rush, went 23/5/.249/.345/.445 and a .340 wOBA. If you’ve been following Razzball for an Urban Dictionary minute, which is actually a long time, you know I’ve been loving Lurias since he went 19/7/.315 in only 73 games of Triple-A in the Padres’ farm system. Oops, I forgot, PETA said I have to call “farm system” an “animal prison complex.” So, what can we expect from Luis Urias for 2022 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Psyche! Before we get into the Luis Urias sleeper post, just wanted to announce that I’ve begun to roll out my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings on our Patreon. It’s an early Xmas miracle! Like randomly putting on Showtime, and Porky’s just starting. Anyway II, the Luis Urias sleeper:
Not to go too far down this rabbit hole, but the “what are you doin’ baby” Steamer moment of the day is they give Luis Urias 20 homers in 502 ABs, after he hit 23 in 490 ABs. Now, not every player gets more power as they get older, but a 24-year-old in one of the best home run parks? C’mon. In fairness, Milwaukee wasn’t “that” great last year for homers. About 12th in the league for homers (10th across last three years). They prolly added a humidor. At this point, I assume everyone has a humidor. MLB added Cuba to the international free agency market on one condition: Every team must buy one of their old humidors, which used to house their cigars. Any hoo! Urias had a 38% fly ball rate last year with a 16% HR/FB, which gets you to around 24 homers, but he regularly had a higher HR/FB% in the minors. All parks and pitchers aren’t made as goofy as minor league parks, so won’t go there, but he’s a 22% HR/FB away from being Rafael Devers for power. Someone more realistically Urias compares well to for power and average is Carlos Correa. Carlos Correa is a 27/.270 hitter and Urias is too, but with 5-7 steals. Think about the likelihood that someone will draft Urias before Correa, even though Urias has more upside and speed.
Yes, I said he’s comparable to Correa for average. It was always a little confusing why everyone thought Luis Urias would struggle to hit .240. He had a 65-grade hit tool coming through the minors, and, as said above, hit .315 his last big year in Triple-A at 22 years of age. That was with a 18.3% K-rate and he had a 20.4% last year in the majors with a 11.1% walk rate. Does any of this sound like a guy who will only hit .249? How about after this: Urias had a .280 BABIP with 9.3 barrels per batted ball event% (Correa was 9.4). Also, Urias was a much better hitter in the 2nd half — .266 with 11 homers in only 203 ABs. Not to get goofy with the prorating, but that’s 33 homers and .270 in 600 ABs. In the 2nd half, his K% was 16.7, down from 23% in the 1st half, and his walk rate went up from 10.3% to 12.1%. Oh, and with a .850 OPS. Guess who had a .850 OPS last year. I’ll give you one hint, his name rhymes with Schmarlos Schorrea. Oh, and Schmarlos Schorrea still has no speed! (Also, that was essentially the same OPS as Pete Alonso, Salvador Perez, Mookie Betts and Jared Walsh). After this year, it won’t sound weird to mention Luis Urias in the same breath as those guys. For 2022, I’ll give Luis Urias projections of 80/27/88/.271/6 in 556 ABs with a chance for more.