He was drafted in 2017. Snooze, what’s taking so long for Jo Adell? Wait a second, he’s still only going to be 22 years old when the 2022 season starts? Assuming it starts. It’ll start. Right? Riiiiiiiiight? Eight I’s!? Whoa, that’s a lot of I’s and Jo Adell is still pretty young. I have gotchies older. Of course, those gotchies are in a framed-glass case behind my desk for my Zoom calls. It’s a move to impress people. It’s failed to do so just yet. Okay, recapping non-underwear news! Jo Adell went 27/10 across two levels this past year, Triple-A and the majors. He hit .289/.342/.592 in Triple-A, then came up and hit .246/.295/.408 in the majors. This was in 441 total ABs (130 in the majors). His final 17 games in the majors: 3/1 and .302/.343/.524 when he hit in 14 of the final 17 games. Because MLB hates baseball fans to see games in their geographic region, I had to search to some Jo Adell home run clips, wanna see them? Of course, you do!

He hit that so easily I’m picking the bottom of my jaw off the floor. Let’s see another the other way:

I don’t want to say anything stupid, but he kinda reminds me of Fun Tatis Jr., due to the ease the ball jumps out. Everyone in the organization was impressed with the gains Jo Adell made. Might say Maddon was singing Adell’s praises, saying he set fiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiire to the raaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaain. That’s a direct quote, but they were karaoking at the time. But was this a true fix or a small sample masquerading as a big sample with a monthly subscription to Get Roman? So, what can we expect from Jo Adell for 2022 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Psyche! Before we get into the Jo Adell sleeper post, just wanted to announce that I’ve begun to roll out my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings on our Patreon. It’s an early Xmas miracle! Jesus, Christmas gets all the miracles. Anyway II, the Jo Adell sleeper:

Jo Adell’s strikeout rate went from 29.2% to 22.9% in the minors to the majors. Yes, that’s why we’re here. He went from a .160 hitter to a .260 hitter, essentially overnight. The major league strikeout rate might be a small sample talking, like in Puppetry of the Penis, but the plate discipline numbers look improved. His Contact% went from 60.8% to 72.3%. His contact within the zone went from 66.5% to 79.5%. His contact with pitches outside the zone went from 52.3% to 63.2%. Yes, please and thank you. He swung more in general (up ~3%) and it seemed more aggressiveness didn’t conflict with a better selection. I like that. *licks fingers in a weird way* Sorry, too provocative?

When a player matures into an everyday outfielder from a 1st round draft pick, and they’re only 22 years old? Forgetting about him is not smart fantasy baseballing. So, he had a 35% fly ball rate so far in the majors, but regularly had a higher one in the minors. His Launch Angle of 12-ish prolly gets him around a 38% fly ball rate, but he could be as high as 46-50%. 50% might be a bit too high (literally), but I don’t think that will be an issue. I’m counting on a 38% fly ball rate, and anything higher is a whipped topping. This is the difference between 28 homers and 38 homers. One is Rafael Devers last year, and one is Devers two years ago. Not saying he will be Devers, Adell won’t hit for that good an average. Just his power might not be far off.

Have I mentioned Adell stole 10 bags last year? I did, back in paragraph one. Honestly, I think that’s the floor, but he hasn’t shown a willingness to steal bags in the majors as much as he did in the minors, so it’s all we have to go on. To recap, 28-38 homers? All right. Seven to 10 steals? All right, all right. .245 thru .265? Okay, all right. So, 28/10/.255 from Adell as a possible expectation and he’s being drafted around 250 overall? It seems like he’s being forgotten in drafts because he’s got a lot of unknown, but is he unknown? Nothing I’ve said in this post seems very unknown and I’ve demonstrated why he’s projectable for 28/10/.255. Is it unknown because he flamed out in 2020? Yeah, so did lots of other people. For 2022, I’ll give Jo Adell projections of 67/28/76/.253/10 in 537 ABs with a chance for more.

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leon
leon
6 months ago

dynasty league question. Have Cavan biggio and Hiura at $27. 2 problem players to have right now. Problem is, its dynasty and the FA pool come draft day will have players like cron, surarez, robles, then yandy diaz. What would you do in this situation. Keep them and roll the dice. keep both, toss one, or both. Pool is very empty after the players liisted.

leon
leon
Reply to  Grey
6 months ago

I agree. I just dont see who i would take over the upside of those 2. CJ cron will go for $80 in the draft probably. Rest of the players are fringe starting players in the pool. You really thiink its not worth holding biggiio? Even hiurta has a small chance at some turn around possible i would think.

leon
leon
Reply to  leon
6 months ago

Also have willie calhoun at $14 who im not sure what to do with either.

leon
leon
Reply to  Grey
6 months ago

thanks. Also one more. Edward Olivares or Andy Ibanez for 2022 beyond

captain obvious
captain obvious
Reply to  leon
6 months ago

Get new players. Doesn’t matter the price. You never explained anything. They all suck anyways.

Huffin Gas
Huffin Gas
6 months ago

“not smart fantasy baseballing” Oh man, I’m gonna use that phrase in the office for a while when any one f*#ks up, for any reason. And just laugh to myself. Thank you!

Ace of Spades
Ace of Spades
6 months ago

Grey

Glad to hear you NOT play the lock out blues. Thanks for helping keep the blood pressure lower.

14 team mixed auction ( $260 ) standard 5×5, can keep up to 11. values increase each year.

Anyways, I have something on the table that I wanted to run by you.

I would trade Corey Seager $18, Toro $10, and Carrasco $5 and I would get Bobby Witt Jr. $9.

I was not keeping Carrasco or Toro anyways, so, for me, essentially, I would be trading Seager for Witt Jr.

Thanx , in part to Razzball, I won last year and I am not rebuilding but hoping for a repeat.

I know a Witt for SEager trade seems opposed at that goal for this year, but my gut is telling me its a no brainer.

If it helps, these are some of the other guys I am keeping.

Vladdy $14, Soto $14, Albies $28, Gausman $18, Webb, $4, Musgrove $12, McClanahan $10, Tony Disco $3, Pressley $12, Gallegos $9

On draft day I will obviously be drafting nothing but hitters. I know I am losing BA when trading SEager for Witt, but with Soto and Vladdy in line up, I maybe shouldnt sweat that. .

Sorry for rambling. so, would you trade $18 Seager for $9 Witt ?

Thanks in advance as always and may I recommend that you volunteer yourself to be the mediator in the CBA talks . We can call it the RBA ( Razzball bargaining agreement ) where no player EVER gets held in the minors for salary/ownership purposes.

Happy holidays to you and yours and everyone else ( except Trevor Bauer, F*ck Trevor Bauer )

Fart Butt
Fart Butt
6 months ago

8 players can be kept for as long as you want (top 96 players for the league) would you keep him over Mondesi, Sal P, or India? In a redraft I’m guessing he’s not in you too 100 but a limited keeper he might be. Obviously I would like to trade Perez while his value is high but no takers yet (ADP in the 30s, which is crazy).

Suicide Squeeze
Suicide Squeeze
6 months ago

So, 4 sleepers so far and I have 3 of them. I’d have had Vaughn too but it did not work out last year’s draft.

I’ve got a lot of young guns and am excited about the next 3 years. (AL only keeper league)

Wander
Kelenic
Adell
Kirilloff
Bruhan
Witt
Rodriguez

A little hope that Huff and or Kirk will take off too.

The Original Whatever
The Original Whatever
Reply to  Suicide Squeeze
6 months ago

For an AL Only team I like your keepers. Even if it was a mixed keeper I like your keepers. :)

Believe it or not there is a team in my mixed keeper that has FTJ for two years at single digits and has finished in last both years. Now that is hard to do. lol.

The Original Whatever
The Original Whatever
6 months ago

Hey Grey,

(Salary for 2022)

12 team mixed keeper with OBP. Cole is a cant keep for me and has to be traded ($29).

Was offered Springer ($28), Berrios (16) and DL Hall for Cole

My current keeper set:

Vlad (27)
Tim Anderson (22)
Machado (36)
Renfroe (8)
Winker (12)
Alcantara (1)
Rodon (1)
Ranger Suarez (1)
Joe Ryan (1)

Not sure how I feel about Springer. $28 for a guy who is injury prone is a lot. And Berrios is just okay for that price with my other pitching options. I think I am just going to hold on to Cole as guys get more desperate closer to spring training to trade for top line pitching and I think I can upgrade or trade someone else’s non keep like a Story. This deal just does not excite me.

Thoughts?

The Original Whatever
The Original Whatever
Reply to  The Original Whatever
6 months ago

Oh and we are limited to 10 keepers.

The Original Whatever
The Original Whatever
Reply to  Grey
6 months ago

Thanks Grey

Sport
Sport
6 months ago

This is exactly why I follow all of your sleepers! I was one who had written off Adell and was surprised when I saw he was the sleeper this morning. Reading through it though, and I’m definitely looking to trade for him in some dynasties.

Speaking of dynasties. Here are my 40 round results. 12 team, 5×5 regular categories. Only 10 hitters, and innings pitched limited to 1400, instead of using games started.

C-Grandal,
1B-Freeman
2B-India
3B-Ramirez
SS-L.Urias or J.Barrero
OF-LouRob
OF-O’Neill
OF-Winker
UT-Altuve
UT-Renfroe
Bench: C-Elias Diaz, Vidal Brujan, Ian Happ, Kwan.
SP-Nola and Robbie Ray
RP-Diaz, Will Smith, Lucas Sims
P-Houck, Dustin May, Syndergaard, Ashby, Detmers, Gonsolin, Luzardo

Prospects:Eury Perez, F.Alvarez, Yorke, Mayo, J.Noel, J.Walker, O.Peraza, Preciado, K.Alcantara, L.Matos, Weimer, Hedbert.

I know, I know, my SS are the big question mark. They could be great value considering where I got them, but definitely not top tier like I as planning. I went with Aaron Nola (45) when I should have took T.Anderson, and then the others went pretty quick.

My biggest concern is reaching the 14oo innings pitched. It’s kind of an unknown with several of those guys, but I really like the upside of them. I also think having guys that may be around the 130 to 140 inning pitch range is ok for this league compared to a ‘games started’ league.

Any glaring holes that need addressed? Any Schmohawks besides Grandal that would make you want to puke?

Thank you for all the help!

Sport
Sport
Reply to  Grey
6 months ago

Yeah Altuve was the most boring pick of the draft for me. I hadn’t planned on owning him and decided round 10 would be ok for a veteran bat.

I completely forgot my 40th pick of the draft was Jon Gray and inadvertently left him off the list above! I figured he would be good for decent K/9 and remembered you talking about him on the podcast the other day! He will help toward my innings as a streamer!

UkraineGameToYou
UkraineGameToYou
6 months ago

Jo Adell 11th fastest sprint speed in the majors last year. If the Halos let Ohtani run, surely they’ll let Adell run too.

Ryan
Ryan
Reply to  UkraineGameToYou
6 months ago

Sprint speed is not the best indicator for stolen bases. It only tells you how fast a guy is moving once he reaches top speed. For SB, we also want to know about acceleration, agressiveness, ability to take leads and read pickoff moves, etc. Adell has been successful stealing bags in the minors, but has been far from prolific. It’s usually a bad idea to expect SB to go UP in the big leagues. I would advise to expect more of the minor league track record (10ish SB) for the next few years, with those tapering off as he ages into his late 20s.

The Original Whatever
The Original Whatever
Reply to  Ryan
6 months ago

Also you have to look at the team’s willingness to steal. A guy can have all the ability in the world but if his team limits his opportunities its wasted.

UkraineGameToYou
UkraineGameToYou
Reply to  Ryan
6 months ago

I agree I’m not expected him to become a 30/30 threat or anything like that. He also has much more burst than you’d expect from a big guy too. 15th in the MLB in 90ft running splits around guys like Myles Straw and Jazz Chisholm, so its not like he just reaches top speed once he stretches his legs out in the outfield.

If he has the awareness and instincts to read pickoff moves, I don’t think 18-20 SBs some seasons is anywhere out of the question if he gets the PAs. Cuz if the Angels let Ohtani run, surely they don’t hold Adell back.

kcc26
kcc26
6 months ago

love it! Big fan of Adell this year as I think he stays relatively cheap. own him for $7 in ottoneu. going to be buying elsewhere as well!

just got an offer of $6 oneil cruz for my $14 kelenic. what do we think?

kcc26
kcc26
Reply to  Grey
6 months ago

yeah it’s a points league. I accepted the offer. I also have OF Mullins, Reynolds, Adell, J. Sanchez and Avisail Garcia on my roster right now but only had one middle infield eligible guy (Wander) who I currently have slotted for 3b given the lack of depth there.

Hoping Cruz can be a strong contributor at MI. I have a bunch of $$ to throw around at auction too!

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
6 months ago

Grey!!!!

Awesome!

a. Love all these sleepers, but what’s the limit of sleepers one should have on a team? Four? Less or more?

b. Stressburg’s first trip to the IL will be May 1. Over/under says?

c. Grade the trades (4×4, dynasty, keep forever, 12-team league)

1. Team A gives Seiya Suzuki, to get Musgrove
2. Team A gives Steven Kwan, to get Everson Pereira and Austin Nola
3. Team A gives Jose Tena, Eguy Rosario, Larnach and TWalker, to get Kelenic

d. Have a nice weekend.

e. Norm MacDonald quote of the day for December 10, 2021

‘Lisa Marie Presley announced this week that she is still married to Michael Jackson and that they are happy. She also announced that she’s a 9-year old boy.’

f. Marx Brothers quote of the day for December 10, 2021

Groucho: ‘Listen, Steve, sit down in your chair. Because when I tell you this, you’re gonna fall right out of it.’

Cheers,
Ante

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
Reply to  Grey
6 months ago

Grey!!!

Thanks, man!

B. Yeah, Stressburg and that delivery of the offspeed and the inverted W.

C.1. my thinking exactly…Even if Suzuki does sign, I think Musgrove will outperform him and the age difference is minimal (Seiya=27, Joe=29).
C.2. my thinking exactly….I jumped when I thought it was Aaron and not Austin. Though, one silver lining…Pereira may jump in value this year to make the trade at least a draw, C-.
C.3. The same.

C.1. and C.2. have been accepted and gone through. C.3. is pending.

Cheers,
Ante