Fantasy Baseball Advice

Rookie pitchers give you a roofie.  Rookie hitters give you agita.  So why do we keep going back for more like a guest on Oprah?  It’s sorta like the old joke that Woody Allen quotes in Annie Hall.  We need the eggs.  Besides said eggs, if a rookie somehow/someway breaks out, he’ll help you win your championship.  Face it, if you draft properly in the first 7 to 10 rounds, your team will be competitive, but so should other teams.  It’s what you do after those rounds that makes the difference.  You’re not winning your league with A-Rod, but you could with Ian Desmond.  As wonky as that sounds, it’s true.  If you click on the player’s name, you’ll find whole posts and projections for each guy.  It’s like Santa woke up drunk in March.  Anyway, here’s some rookies to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Brian Matusz – As the fortune cookie that snuck through quality control says, a person who goes to bed with scratchy rear wakes up with a smelly finger.  Rookie pitchers can give you a scratchy rear.  I’m real hesitant about rookie pitchers.  I’d prefer a starter to target from that post.

Buster Posey – I wouldn’t touch him in two catcher leagues at this point.  There’s nothing really to get excited about for 2010 without the Giants getting hit by injuries.  Namely, the fat one in The Flying Molina Brothers.  In deep keepers, I’d grab him late; Posey will be back at some point.

Logan Morrison – Just about everyone has given up on Gaby Sanchez, except the Marlins.  Morrison will break on through at some point.  May not be until September, says my Native American shaman.

Ian Desmond – It’s asking a lot for the Nats to make the right move, but the right move is starting Desmond.

Jason Heyward – NL Rookie of the Year?  Yeah, he can do it, but more than likely, if he gets off to a hot start in April, I’m going to be telling everyone to sell him.

Carlos Santana – Unlike Posey, he could be up sooner vs. later because Lou Marson and Wyatt Toregas, who sounds like a vaquero, are blocking him.  Still wouldn’t draft Santana for my bench in non-keepers.  The roster space vs. reward just isn’t great enough.

Tyler Flowers – One of the few rookies I didn’t dedicate a post to in the offseason, because A) Pierzynski is nothing if not reliable.  Emphasis on nothing.  B) Rookie catchers tend to underperform their 1st year.  See Wieters’s 2009 for further proof.  C) There’s no C.

Austin Jackson – Along with Ian Kennedy, Austin seems to be suffering from The Felipe Lopez, Not That Felipe Lopez Rule.

Neftali Feliz – Ah, I had high hopes for Feliz this year, but it doesn’t look like he’s making the club out of the spring.  There’s always Aroldis Chapman.  Speaking of which…

Aroldis Chapman – If anyone can handle Dusty’s human rights violations, it’s a guy who played for Fidel Castro.

Desmond Jennings – Probably won’t be up until September, but I’d grab him in deep AL-Only leagues and/or keepers.  Desmond will be a great one as long as he can find his constant.

Mike Stanton – Barring injuries, we won’t see him until September at the earliest.  In NL-Only keepers, I could see taking a flier on him.

Scott Sizemore – Hey, a player on this list that actually might have an every day job to start the season!  Dare to dream.  And he’s the one with an injury.  He’s recovering from his ankled ankle and should be ready to go by Opening Day.  Sizemore can/should be owned in 12 team mixed leagues.

Stephen Strasburg – I’m pretty sure the only reason Strasburg even seemed like he might have a chance to make the club out of the spring was so the Nats could sell some tickets.  Now the House of Strasburg fans, dressed in early-1900s Austrian uniforms, will have to wait until at least June.

Chicago White Sox 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm rankings according to Baseball America (2009)
2009 (16) | 2008 (28) | 2007 (26) | 2006 (14) | 2005 (12) | 2004 (20)

Record of Major and Minor league teams
MLB: [86 – 77] AL Central
AAA: [67 – 76] International League
AA: [92 – 47] Southern League
A+: [73 – 65] Carolina League
A: [82 – 57] South Atlantic League
R: [42 – 34] Pioneer League
R: [27 – 39] Appalachian League

The Run Down
With one of the better rookies of 2009 in Gordon Beckham, and there is an argument that he should have won Rookie of the Year, the White Sox are still in desperate need to become younger. Trading away several top arms for Jake Peavy has seriously weakened the depth of the team’s minor league system. Granted, with Peavy, Buehrle, Floyd and Danks, the White Sox have a nice looking rotation in a rather weak division; especially if youngsters Dan Hudson or Carlos Torres pitch well. So the depth is poor, but the top is heavy. With Tyler Flowers, Dan Hudson, and Jordan Danks, the Sox have young studs. No, I didn’t forget about Dayan Viciedo, he is just an afterthought this year. That’s what happens when your weight may rival your batting average – granted a .280 batting average is still decently pleasant. White Sox fans, don’t look too deep or you might find out why Ken Williams is being questioned for his constant trading.

Graduating Prospects
#1 – (3B) Gordon Beckham

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Javelinas
Pitchers – Justin Cassel, Matt Long, Jacob Rasner, Sergio Santos
Hitters – #4 (3B) Dayan Viciedo, #7 (CF) Jordan Danks, #29 (2B/3B) CJ Retherford

Players of Interest
Hitters
#4 Tyler Flowers | C | AA/AAA | 23 | .297/.423/.516 | 353 AB | 28 2B | 15 HR | .219 ISO | 108:67 K:BB | .396 BABIP | 47.8 GB% | 18.8 LD% | 33.5 FB%
Received in Javier Vazquez trade to Atlanta last winter (What kind of scouting do the Braves have that they have so many catchers to trade (i.e. Salty and Flowers)?), Flowers is penciled in as the future catcher of the Sox. With A.J. Pierzynski’s contract ending after this season (2010), a midseason call up should be expected. He only had 105 ABs at Triple-A, but still hit fairly well (.286/.364/.433). His strikeout rates are worrisome (~30.5 K%) as is his extremely high BABIP (.396). He has a career .358 BABIP in 1267 AB in the minors. For the 2010 season, he has 2009 Miguel Montero-like potential.

#7 Jordan Danks | CF | A+/AA | 22 | .266/.359/.405 | 402 AB | 23 2B | 9 HR | .139 ISO | 12/4 SB/CS | 105:55 K:BB | .334 BABIP | 50.8 GB% | 18.8 LD% | 30.4 FB%
The little brother of John Danks, Jordan plays good defense, lacks power, and has many scouts see-sawing on his future. Some scouts believe he will be able to add more homers and power once he adds more bulk to his frame, while others completely disagree, noting specifically his sketchy swing mechanics. The 2009 scouting report said he should hit for average, and he did in 118 AB in High-A (.322/.409/.525) but struggled mightily in Double-A (.243/.337/.356 in 284 AB). His strikeout rate is worth noting, but he walks a fair amount too. He kind of reminds me of Denard Span – had a lot of hype, loses favor, and then surprises later than expected. He is more of a dark horse/sleeper after his dismal 2009 season.

#2 Dayan Viciedo | 3B | AA | 20 | .280/.317/.391 | 504 AB | 20 2B | 12 HR | .111 ISO | 89:22 K:BB | .319 BABIP | 55.2 GB% | 16.4 LD% | 28.2 FB%
Grey mentioned Dayan Viciedo in early November and I mentioned him back in mid-June. Viciedo, if you listened to the hype, was a complete flop. However, if his age is legit, he played really well at Double-A. His power numbers were not quite what everyone was expecting, but that is what happens when you hit more than half of your balls on the ground. In 2010, he needs to put a bit more lift on his swing to see more success. He didn’t walk enough, however, his strikeout rate was respectable (17.7%). Triple-A pitching is next, and if he can adjust accordingly, a late season call-up (or an injury replacement if he is succeeding) would be expected. In dynasty leagues, now is your time to buy low.

#29 C.J. Retherford | 2B/3B | AA | 23 | .297/.340/.473 | 478 AB | 46 2B | 10 HR | .176 ISO | 70:30 K:BB | .328 BABIP | 39.9 GB% | 20.3 LD% | 39.7 FB%
With Brent Morel and Viciedo looking to lock up third and first base for the future, the Sox moved Retherford to second this year. He may have been a low ranked prospect in 2009, but his play moved him into the top of the Sox farm system. With Beckham at second, Retherford will need to repeat 2009 to solidify his rising prospect rating. He doesn’t have great speed and his defense is, at best, slightly above average (and his third base defense is marginal). Truly, Retherford could eventual provide late round depth at second base in terms of fantasy if he could hit .280/.350/.425 with 10 to 15 homers a year.

Pitchers
#24 Dan Hudson | RHP | A/A+/AA/AAA | 22 | 10.1 K/9 | 2.6 BB/9 | 147 1/3 IP | 2.32 RA | 2.43 FIP | .94 WHIP | .3 HR/9 | .288 BABIP | 42.1 GB% | 18.7 LD% | 33.8 FB%
If Flowers wasn’t on this team, Dan Hudson would easily be the top prospect in the system. Rising through the entire minor leagues last year, Hudson dominated at each level. Even his BABIP wasn’t extremely low, aiding his case for prospect breakout player of the year. His worst stop in the minors was in Triple-A at the end of the summer when he saw his walk rate skyrocket (3.4 BB/9), which was the highest since Single-A (2.6 BB/9). Although, he only pitched 24 innings at Triple-A, he was called-up in September and threw 18 1/3 inning with a strikeout rate of 6.8 K/9 and a walk rate of 4.3 BB/9. He has always been a good pitcher, but his senior year of baseball (2008), he slumped and when he was drafted he pitched really well (90 strikeouts in 70 IP). Look for him to compete for the last starting rotation spot in spring training with Carlos Torres. Don’t be shocked to see him start at Triple-A to save service time. If you want the next rookie stud, look no further. He has a low 90’s fastball with tailing effects to lefties and a riding in effect to righties, an average slider, and a spotty change-up (pre-2009 scouting report).

#25 Carlos Torres | RHP | AAA | 26 | 9.1 K/9 | 3.9 BB/9 | 128 IP | 2.39 ERA | 3.04 FIP | 1.19 WHIP | .3 HR/9 | .279 BABIP | 47.6 FB% | 20.2 LD% | 28.5 FB%
He received several starts in 2009 for the White Sox (28 1/3 IP) and pitched admirably. Note that admirably doesn’t mean well. This is just a heads up mention as Torres has a good fastball, a plus cutter, and the experience to help the White Sox in 2010. He is worth a late round flier.

#11 John Ely | RHP | AA | 23 | 7.2 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 156 1/3 IP | 2.82 ERA | 3.68 FIP | 1.22 WHIP | .5 HR/9 | .296 BABIP | 50.5 GB% | 16.4 LD% | 28.9 FB%
His fastball sits between 88 and 94 mph with good movement, a 12-to-6 curve that fluctuates between being an “out” pitch and a “show me” pitch. Nothing spectacular, but nothing to scoff at either. As long as he keeps his pitches down, he should be a back end pitcher. Look only for him in the majors if there is a rash of injuries to the rotation.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
Christian Marrero | 1B | A+/AA | 22 | .308/.348/.501 | 455 AB | 30 2B | 18 HR | .193 ISO | 94:24 K:BB | .353 BABIP | 44.2 GB% | 20.5 LD% | 35.3 FB%
He laced balls all over the field (20.5 LD%) while hitting his way to gain attention in the baseball world. Splitting the year at High-A and Double-A, Marrero pounded out hit after hit. His ISO raised between his promotion (.168 to .219), as did his walk rates. He’ll start the year in Double-A. Eventually, Marrero could replace Konerko, or platoon with another first basemen. Don’t be surprised to see him, Morel or Retherford used as trade bait.

Stefan Gartrell | OF | AA/AAA | 25 | .281/.358/.513 | 474 AB | 31 2B | 23 HR | .232 ISO | 128:53 K:BB | .340 BABIP | 45.5 GB% | 18.8 LD% | 35.7 FB%
Gartrell mainly played at Double-A. His age is working against him, his strikeouts too. His power on the other hand, definitely playing in his favor. If Jones doesn’t play well, Gartrell might be an option for a rather underachieving outfield gang.

#17 Brent Morel | 3B | A+ | 22 | .281/.335/.453 | 4481 AB | 33 2B | 16 HR | .172 ISO | 25/9 SB/CS | 66:38 K:BB | .304 BABIP | 44.3 GB% | 16.8 LD% | 38.5 FB%
A level too low for a “Player of Interest” mention, Morel projects to play the opposite corner of Viciedo. With good plate discipline, above average power, and good range with a plus arm, Morel is on the fast track to the majors. Look for him to play at Double-A, and potentially Triple-A in 2010.

Pitchers
#16 Jhonny Nunez | RHP | AA/AAA | 23 | 10.1 K/9 | 3.3 BB/9 | 70 2/3 IP | 2.55 ERA | 3.36 FIP | 1.18 WHIP | .8 HR/9 | .307 BABIP | 30.7 GB% | 22.8 LD% | 40.7 FB%
Used primarily as a reliever, Nunez pitched well this year. He was once a pitcher, however, his stuff (a mid 90’s fastball and a power slider) works better as a reliever – mainly because of his inconsistencies and inability to develop a solid third pitch.

Dan Remenowsky | RHP | A | 23 | 15.5 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 63 1/3 IP | 1.99 ERA | 1.63 FIP | .88 WHIP | .4 HR/9 | .319 BABIP | 39 GB% | 13 LD% | 43.9 FB%
Easily the pitcher with the numbers that jump out and poke you in the eye. He is a bit older than his competition, and he’ll need to repeat his season to gain any kind of higher ranking or notoriety.

Stephen Sauer | RHP | A | 22| 7.8 K/9 | 1.2 BB/9 | 142 IP | 3.36 ERA | 2.79 FIP | 1.28 WHIP |.3 HR/9 | .363 BABIP | 56.3 GB% | 15.8 LD% | 21.7 FB%
I like his ground ball rate, and that is why he is here (along with adequate numbers too). His BABIP was a bit high (adjusted for his lower FIP), but his control, ground ball rate, and overall solid numbers makes him someone to watch.

With September 1st knocking on August’s door — August 31st, is that you? Uh… No.  August 30th? Nope.  August 32nd? No, you nitwit!  It’s September 1st! – it’s time we looked at September call ups.  These are potential September call ups that will, should, could and potentially make or not make a difference in fantasy baseball.  Today, we’ll look at the hitters, then on Tuesday afternoon we’ll look at pitchers.  So tip out some of your malt liquor for the pitchers who aren’t here and take a drag on that Newport, cause Razzball’s Alive With Pleasure with September call ups, the hitters.  Anyway, here’s some potential September call ups to keep your eye on for fantasy baseball:

Jason Heyward – I could shave words of praise in my merkin for Heyward, but it probably won’t do us any good.  If Heyward gets called up, he probably won’t have that large of a role in September.

Mat Gamel – He should be the every day 3rd baseman in Milwaukee in September.  At worse, he plays every day vs. righties.  He’ll be worth an immediate pickup in all leagues for a shot of adrenaline to your fantasy baseball heart.  Speaking of which, Inglourious Basterds… I was kinda bored.  Maybe it was my mood.  Not sure.  Just got sick of looking at slow push-ins.

Kila Ka’aihue – I was actually looking forward to the Hawaiia’an mash machine’s call up last November.  How’s that for prescience!

Jeff Clement – Oh, just call him up already, Pirates.  What are you waiting for?  2012?  He deserves to be up already and given a long look.

Buster Posey – Probably will see some time… In spring training.

Justin Smoak – Was broken down by Scouting the Unknown.  Smoak’s another guy I don’t think we see this year.

Chris Heisey – Should get the call up by the Reds.  Or not!  This is for the Reds to decide.  He has moderate speed and power.  Think 12/12.  In one month, think 3/3.  So, eh.  But keepers should stay alert.

Cameron Maybin – You need to put aside the differences you guys had back in April.  Maybin’s worth look in 12 team, mixed leagues if/when he gets his September call up.

Eric Young Jr. – If you need steals in NL-Only leagues, stash him immediately.  Also, Barmes may lose significant time.

Brandon Allen – Besides sounding like a furniture store, he has good power, has already been called up and has a legit shot of seeing a lot of time at first for the Diamondbacks in September.

Tyler Flowers – Sticking with the mall store names, Flowers may get called up in September, but his role will be limited like cumin in chili.

Jeff Larish – Yo, 70’s Bowie was Larish!  Wait, that’s not right.  Jeff Larish is an all power, heavy K 1st baseman.  He probably won’t see much playing time if he’s called up.  And he’s androgynous.

Krispie Young – Now there’s a hot rookie name!

Chris Davis – With the Rangers in the hunt, I doubt they give Davis the requisite at-bats he’ll need to continue his assault on the all-time strikeout record.  Though he’s capable of a huge month, so it’s worth a flier.

Brandon Wood – Yeah, Scioscia will play him.  And in other news, water is dry.

Austin Jackson – For all of youse out there with Don Mattingly pillow cases and “Jeter’s My Homeboy” t-shirts don’t do it. Put down Jackson for this year.