Fantasy Baseball Advice

Diamond is widely acknowledged as the most successful Fantasy Baseball Pick-up Artist in the world - applying the methods of female seduction to the art of winning fantasy baseball league championships.  He travels cyberspace with his wing Saber, teaching those who play fantasy baseball how to be fantasy baseball players.

I am not a brilliant baseball statistician.  I do not spend hours upon hours combing the Internet for fantasy baseball news or advice.  I do not spend much time watching baseball on TV.  But what I do is win fantasy baseball leagues.  Auction leagues.  Draft leagues.  One-year leagues.  Keeper leagues.  It doesn’t matter - I win them all.

I’m sure you are reading this and laughing.  You may be thinking “Who does this dufus with the wizard hat think he is?”  I’ll tell you - I am a Master Fantasy Baseball Pick-up Artist.

I realize you are skeptical.  All I can do is share my wisdom.  Share my method.  It is up to you whether you use it.

For my first post, I will focus on the importance of one’s fantasy baseball Avatar in online leagues.    An Avatar is the image you project to your leaguemates.  It should not be mistaken for the cartoon images in video games and instant messengers.  It is more than that.  It is every interaction point you make with your leaguemates - particularly in the beginning of the season.

Your first interaction point is your online name.  What do you use?  Is it something based on your real name?  Is it some mildly amusing nickname you have?

What does this project?  It projects you’re an RTS (RoToSchmo).

This is the Phrase Phase - the time when a Fantasy Baseball Pick-up Artist establishes right from the get-go that he is the alpha-male in the league.  He does this by choosing a name that makes this abundantly clear.  Vivid, non-humorous, emotive names that gain respect:  tigershark, 800lbgorilla, spikes_up_slider, grizzlykilla, etc.   We call this Powerphrasing.

You might be saying to yourself “I’m playing fantasy baseball just for fun” or “I prefer to sneak under the radar” or “That’ll make me sound like a prick”.  That’s your RTS voice talking.  Listen to it if you are content fighting for 5th place every year.  The goal of our Avatar is to communicate power.

The next crucial decision is your visual image.  In many online leagues, you can download a picture.  Some choose to leave this blank.  Some use an animated image.  Some choose a normal picture of themselves.

Again, I ask, what are you trying to project here?  The answer should be….confidence.  You thought I was going to say power, right?  That is our Avatar end goal.  But powerful people don’t need to pose with their biceps flexing or holding a weapon in their hand.  This is what non-powerful, insecure people do to appear powerful.  A truly powerful person is confident.

How does one show confidence?  By wearing a baseball hat.  No.  By wearing a baseball hat backwards.  That’s better but no.  Confidence is wearing something ridiculous like a wizard hat.  Yeah it looks silly but it combines with your PowerPhrase to tells your league mates to say, “Boys, you’re playing for second place.”  We call these confidence-exuding accessories MadProps.  Some people - like my wing Saber - just ooze confidence and don’t require a MadProp.  When in doubt, MadProp it out.

Now how do you best leverage this powerful Avatar you’ve created from your PowerPhrasing and MadProps?  We’ll save that for your next lesson….

Pat Burrell and Milton Bradley, the new members of the Rays and Cubs respectively, are in similar tiers as outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball, that not-so-coveted thirdish/fourth-kinda outfielder spot.  With their signings, it solidifies in everyone’s mind where Milton Bradley will throw a tantrum next year and where Burrell will be seen going from home to 1st in 12.7 seconds.  Is that a Clydesdale, Pa? Anyway, let’s look at what these free agent signings mean for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Pat Burrell - The Rays signed Pat Burrell, which should rid the Tampa landscape of the Gomes/Floyd blahtoon at DH.  That’s right, Burrell’s fielding has him on the fast track for DH duties.  So sad.  I would’ve liked to see Upton and Crawford play the outfield and Burrell play a ten foot swatch of outfield grass.  “Ooh, Burrell just missed snagging that one.  It was almost twelve feet away from where he was positioned.”  I imagine Crawford in LF would’ve had a better shot at some balls hit to right.  Oh, well.  As for Burrell for 2009 fantasy baseball, he’ll still have OF eligibility and then he’ll have multiple position eligibility when he gets that coveted Utility eligibility.  Sweet!  He hits 29 to 33 HRs every year and I don’t think 2009 will be any different.  I could actually see him thriving as a DH — Oy, who wants to field when you’re lousy at it? — I’d draft Burrell as a third to fourth outfielder for 2009.

Milton Bradley - The Cubs signed Milton Bradley — filling the hole in their lineup left by Fukudome’s bat and the hole in their ‘likely DL candidate’ position vacated by Kerry Wood.  Milton Bradley is known to somewhat feud with his managers, but Pinella is a much mellower presence than the irascible Bud “Kneebreaker” Black.  They don’t call him Sweet Lou for nothing.  I think it’s fair to say in 2008, Milton Bradley had a career year, i.e., he put it all together.  Slugging, health, peaceful resolutions to disagreements (though he did try to bash in a Royals announcer’s face — Milton Bradley ain’t your dummy, dummy!) and he played in a ballpark conducive to a career year.  In this career year, he still only hit 22 HRs and just under 80 Runs and 80 RBIs.  For the amount of Tagamet you need to drink to have him on your team, is that really worth it?  Take two and pass.

Hey all! My thanks to both Rudy and Grey for allowing me the opportunity to ramble for a bit on one of my favorite off-season topics, the fantasy mock draft. It’s the beginning of January and this would be the perfect opportunity to commence that 2009 preseason fine tuning. The start of spring training is still several months away and taking advantage of that “break” between seasons can make a huge difference in those final 2009 results. Sure the honey-do list can be shortened, but please remember guys don’t set the bar too high. Taking too much of a break can lead to over-bonding, which then creates a false sense of illusion when spring training gets rolling, and you and the PC get rejoined at the hip for another six months.

In a standard 12 team league, assuming you have a 23 man roster with a six man bench, your season, all six months of it, is led out of the gate by a scant 43 minutes and 30 seconds, or as we like to call it the draft. Don’t get me wrong here, 2009 fantasy baseball rankings and 2009 fantasy baseball projections are both crucial and essential components in preseason preparation, but the ability to mold those projections into a cohesive and winning team is another very important skill set, and an art all unto itself, that should not be overlooked.

Most mock drafts allow for a fifteen or twenty minute window prior to the actual draft, much the same as your actual league drafts. I know we all like to chat it up with the old gang and practice the ritual trash talk, but use at least a portion of this time to identify some of the key players you will be targeting. Draft day is the wrong time to be sorting through for the first time the actual mechanics of the “player queue.” I personally like to list sleeper picks, high risk/high reward types and the slew of closer wannabees that can be used to attempt to vulture cheap saves near the end of the draft. This whole process takes maybe five-to-ten minutes and still allows ample time to socialize.

The ability to be constantly monitoring the players that are still available by position is an invaluable skill. I am constantly monitoring player movement by position, especially the positions that I know can lead to trouble down the road like catcher, shortstop and this year first base. Knowing constantly what is available is a necessity when looking forward into the middle and latter rounds of a draft.

Monitor other teams’ rosters as they draft. Look for trends and strategies that might have serious implications further on into the draft. The art of scanning rosters with everything else that is going on in a draft is a challenge to say the least, but if you want to be ready for opportunity to knock you better be prepared to do the work it takes as well. You’re looking at a 17th round pick and doing the old, “Should I make a move now or wait another round,” and lo and behold a quick glance reveals that the teams picking before your next pick have all those slots filled. Makes that decision a bit easier now doesn’t it?

Work on different strategies and picking from different draft slots. Remember the goal is to work towards gaining that extra edge come draft day, and picking fourth in a mock for two months because you like the options available there isn’t really going to help you a whole lot on draft day when you end up in the ninth slot. It’s all about knowing the potential and probable outcomes and the ability to react in a positive manner when confronted by them. Try taking starting pitcher’s early, or letting them slide into the middle or latter rounds. Build a team based on those big power bats. Draft speed early or try and procure it late. Forgo the big stolen base threats and build your stolen bases from a balanced approach. Practice starting player runs, and understand the implications of getting caught in one.

There is a lot going on, in a very, very short period of time in a draft. The skills required to identify, analyze and react on the fly require many hours of practice. If one is comfortable with the actual draft mechanics in January, it certainly leads to the potential to be a dominating force with the commencement of league play in mid-March. The ability and skill-set to “control” the draft and your destiny, rather than accepting it as one’s fate gives you a huge edge over the competition come draft day.

I will be running a weekly Sunday night mock over at Mock Draft Central starting January 11th at 8:00 pm EDT and I’d like to extend an invitation to all Razzball readers that might be interested in practicing the craft. Head on over and join me for some invaluable practice and discussion as we head into spring training. Thanks again to Rudy, Grey and all the Razzball readers and here’s wishing you a Razztastic fantasy filled 2009!

(Besides wearing shorts two sizes too small, Tim also contributes at Rotorob.com.)

Dallas McPherson reminds a lot of myself, if I hit 42 home runs in my last year of Triple-A, or if I played in the minors or any sort of organized sport.  I was a city checkers champion in 6th grade. Cust kayin’.  Speaking of striking out, Dallas McPherson just struckout. And again. Whenever you’re reading this, there’s a good chance McPherson is striking out somewhere.  He’s like Mr. Furley in the Regal Beagle.  McPherson struckout 168 times last year in the minors.  That’s a lot.  I don’t know who holds the record for most strikeouts in a minor league season, because I’m too lazy to Google it, but I have to think McPherson challenged that record last year.  Remember they play less games in the minors.  168 is a lot of strikeouts.  A real lot.  He only played in 127 games.  He also walked a lot.  They call these players, Three True Outcome players, because there’s three possible outcomes when they come to bat, strikeout, walk or home run.  Okay, Alice Cooper, school’s out!  So why is Dallas McPherson is a fantasy sleeper for 2009?

Very few guys will give you the possibility of 30 home runs in the 20th round for your corner infidel.  Think about how huge this could be.  Go ahead, I’ll wait.  You’re not thinking, you’re patronizing me.  Fine, I’ll continue anyway. Begrudingly.  Imagine you take Chone Figgins at 3rd — blech, I know, but bear with me — so now you have a major power outage from your 3rd baseman.  How do you make this up?  You grab McPherson real late.  Even in mixed leagues, McPherson should be drafted in the final rounds.  Some of the schmohawks that are being drafted around him are Bill “You Suck For Even Contemplating Drafting Me” Hall, Ronnie Belliard and Ty Wigginton.  None of those guys has the sweet, sweet upside of McPherson.  The Marlins GM has already said McPherson is penciled in at 3rd for 2009.  Pencils do have erasers, but unless something drastically changes, Dallas McPherson is going to be a solid fantasy sleeper for 2009.  If McPherson fails to land a full-time MLB job, he’s got a job waiting for him on one of T. Boone Pickens wind generator farms.

In this series of Hall of Fame nomination-based posts, we’re going to focus on specific roles/positions.  We’ll be reviewing both players on the HOF ballot as well as non-HOFers who we feel deserve re-consideration.

This third post focuses on starting pitchers - with Bert Blyleven (61.9%), Jack Morris (42.9%), and Tommy John (29.1%) the three with the highest % of votes from last year’s nomination.  Before we even look at their stats (and those of other non-Hall of Famer contemporaries), we need to set the criteria by which to judge HOF-worthiness.  The criteria by which starters have been judged has been preoccupied by counting stats - primarily Wins but also Strikeouts tend to be considered (think Ryan, Carlton, part of Blyleven’s argument).  Let’s first review modern pitchers in the HOF to determine what criteria seems to define excellence - with a bias towards those that factor out the bias of era, park, and team performance.

Here are the stats for starting pitchers with 200+ Wins since 1956 who are in the Hall of Fame (this factors out Koufax who had only 165 Wins):

The stats that best factor out the era/park/team performance biases are Quality Start % and ERA+.  Quality Start % is the percentage of starts that went 6+ Innings and gave up 3 or less runs.  While there is a bias here in that it was easier to give up 3 or less runs in ‘low offense’ years, it is a better statistic than Wins/Win % as it factors out team performance.  ERA+ or Adjusted ERA adjusts a pitcher’s ERA according to the pitcher’s ballpark and the ERA of the pitcher’s league (100 is league-average).  K/9 IP and K/BB ratio are good secondary measures to understand how dominant a pitcher was.  WHIP (Baserunners/9 IP) is a great stat but has to be used directionally since it isn’t adjusted like ERA+.

I created composite stats based on the top 1/3, middle 1/3 and low 1/3 of these players - e.g., if you divide these players into 3 tiers, 314 wins represents the floor of that 1st tier.

If we look at these starters, we see all have Quality Start %s over 60%.  ERA+ tends to be at least 15% above league average with Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton, and Catfish Hunter being the exceptions.  If we look at just these two stats, it seems fair to say that the most questionable modern pitcher in the HOF is Catfish Hunter.  His ERA+ of 104 is near league-average and that’s with less post-peak innings pitched than most since arm troubles and diabetes forced him to retire at 33.  While Sutton’s ERA+ isn’t very impressive, his Quality Start % (aided perhaps by Dodger Stadium) looks mighty impressive.  And Nolan Ryan’s strikeouts and no-hitters add enough intangibles to look past the ERA+.

So based on the above, let’s go with a 60% Quality Start % and a ERA+ of 115 as the tentative bar with Wins and K’s as secondary arguments.

Now, before we look at the eligible players, let’s apply this criteria against the dominant generation of pitchers that just retired or are nearing retirement:

The pitchers that are HOF locks - Randy, Pedro, Clemens, Maddux, and Glavine - easily hurdle this 200 Win, 60% QS% and 115 ERA+.  I doubt I’ll be alone in marvelling at how impressive Curt Schilling and especially Kevin Brown stack up based on these criteria - if I’m still blogging in 5 years, expect me to be championing both their causes.  It’s also interesting how the two other players on this list discussed for HOF - Smoltz and Mussina - pass these criteria while the four below the mark (at least on QS%) are generally considered below the bar.  (Note:  For David Cone fans, he had 194 Wins, 120+ERA, and a 61.6% QS%.  Given the time lost at the tail end of his career due to his arm aneurysm, I can make an argument for him too…)

Okay, now let’s look at non-HOF pitchers since 1956 with 200+ Wins that are HOF-eligible (retired 5+ years):

One last chart before I go into each player.  Since Wins are such a huge part of the debate, I calculated a metric called ‘Adjusted Wins’.  For all I know, some sabermatrician did this already so I’m not going to say I invented it.  To calculate ‘Adjusted Wins’, I first created a metric called ‘Wins Per GS / QS%’.  This takes the % of starts that were Wins and then divides it by the % of starts that were Quality Starts.  I ran this against the HOF bunch and it came out to an average of 73.1% (e.g., they had about 3 Wins for every 4 Quality Starts).  I ran this against the HOF-eligible pitchers and it came out to 74.4%.  Based on this, I created an Adjusted Win metric that is Quality Starts * 74%.

This metric has two inherent flaws:

1. Not all Quality Starts are equal.  Giving up zero earned runs in 9 IP is much more Win-worthy than a 6 IP / 3 ER start
2. It doesn’t account for era or park bias (like ERA+).  A Quality Start in a low offense era in a pitcher’s park isn’t as Win-worthy as the same one in a high offense era in a hitter’s park.

Nevertheless, I think this provides guidance as to whether a pitcher ‘deserved’ more or less Wins.  The ‘Diff’ column is positive (blue) if the Adjusted Wins are higher than actual Wins and negative (red) if the Adjusted Wins are lower than actual.

Bert Blyleven - 62.6% of his starts were Quality Starts.  His ERA+ was 115.  His K/9 IP is better than 8 of the 13 HOFers listed earlier (bested by Ryan, Carlton, Gibson, Seaver, and Bunning) and everyone on this list except Chuck Finley and Mickey Lolich.  His Wins per GS / QS% is at 66.9% which is well below the 74% average - leading to an adjusted win total of 317 (or 30 above actual).  The only arguments I can see against Blyleven is that he didn’t ‘dominate’ his time - e.g.,  never won a Cy Young (top 7 four times) and only 2 All-Stars.  I could see using this type of argument to separate borderline candidates but Blyleven is comfortably above the thresholds set by the pitchers already in the HOF.

Vote:  YES

Fun facts/anecdotes:  The first and only great baseball player to be born in The Netherlands - unless you count Andruw Jones (who was born in Netherland Antilles).  In 1986-1987 with the Twins, he gave up 50 and 46 Home Runs - setting a single-season record (50) and having the third highest total (Jose Lima’s 48 is 2nd).  As an announcer, Blyleven loves to drop the f-bomb and, based on the adjacent pic, we imagine he has no compunction about dropping a Dutch oven on his sleeping partner - proof you can take a man out of the Netherlands but you can’t take the smell if you’re trapped under the sheets when that man farts.

Jack Morris - The arguments for Jack Morris generally boil down to the following:  ‘Best pitcher of the 1980’s”, “Three World Championships”, and “Big-game pitcher”.  I imagine just about all the nominated Hall-of-Fame pitchers have similar superlatives.  The only difference is that their statistics are clearly superior to Jack Morris.

Of those HOFers, the best comparison seems to be Catfish Hunter.  Both were workhorses on generally good teams (Catfish won 5 Championships).  Neither were big strikeout guys (Catfish 5.3/9 IP, Morris 5.8 K/ 9 IP).  Both had ERA+s that are dangerously close to league average (Catfish 104/Morris 105).  Catfish had a -6 in Adjusted Win Difference (won 6 more games than predicted) while Jack has a -34 (which is only bested by David Wells and Kenny Rogers among pitchers shown above).  I’d argue here that Catfish shouldn’t be in the HOF rather than Morris should be in the HOF.

Let’s go back and compare him vs. the other non-HOF pitchers.  His 56.4% QS ranks him near the bottom of the list.  As does his 105 ERA+.  And I already mentioned that his Win total is arguably as inflated than any other pitcher with 200 Wins since 1956.  I don’t know…maybe he ‘gutted’ out a lot of 7 IP / 4 ER run games.  But is there an argument that he had more ‘guts’ than the rest of these pitchers?

As for playoffs, his career playoff stats are 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA.  Good, yes.  Great, no.  Four of these wins came in the 1991 Twins ALCS and World Series victories - the most famous of course being his 1-0 10 inning shutout against Atlanta in the 7th game.  No doubt this was awesome and extremely memorable.  He was also great for the 1984 Tigers going 3-0 with a sub-2.00 ERA.

Looking at those two playoff runs, you could forgive that he lost his only start for Detroit @ Minnesota in the 1987 ALCS (8 IP / 6 ER).  But how about his 1992 playoff run for the Toronto Blue Jays - a team that gifted him 21 wins with his 4.04 ERA/102 ERA+?  In 4 starts across the ALCS and WS, he went 0-3 with an 8.22 ERA.  Toronto beat Atlanta 4 wins to 2 - Morris lost both of those games.

I’m not saying Jack Morris was a bad playoff pitcher - it is that he is remembered as better because of selective memory.  For comparison sake, Dave Stewart went 10-4 with a 2.69 ERA during his playoff stints with Oakland and Toronto.  John Smoltz went 15-4 with a 2.65 ERA.  David Cone went 8-3 with a 3.80 ERA.  Roger Clemens - who isn’t particularly regarded for playoff dominance - has a 12-8 record with a 3.75 ERA.  Net-net, Morris was good in the postseason but not extraordinary (outside of that one start).

Lastly, I want to argue against the oft-repeated claim that he was the best pitcher of the 1980’s.  This ‘best in decade’ argument is arbitrary to begin with - Mark Grace has the most hits in the 1990’s!  Who cares?  You can take any ten year period and find stats like that - it doesn’t make it any more relevant.

In any case, while Morris had the most Wins in the 1980’s, he was not the best pitcher.  Dwight Gooden is clearly the best from 1984-1989 with a phenomenal 74.9% QS% and 132 ERA+.  Dave Stieb bests Jack Morris in QS% (60.7% to 59.9%) and crushes him in ERA+ (127 to 109).  Nolan Ryan, Fernando Valenzuela, Bob Welch, and John Tudor all best him in QS% and ERA+.

At the end of the day, an HOFer needs to exceed certain criteria in order to be enshrined.  Based on 60+ QS% and ERA+ 115+, Morris doesn’t really come close.  Based on all the other peripherals, he still doesn’t come close.  Just because there weren’t a lot of starters whose peak was between 1980-1985 doesn’t change the fact that Morris was a good-to-very good pitcher and NOT a HOF-caliber pitcher.

Vote:  NO

Fun facts/anecdotes:  Jack Morris was definitely the most feared pitcher in his day…..by females in the media - as evidenced by this Jack Morris 1990 locker room gem to Detroit Free Press writer Jennifer Frey:  “I don’t talk to women when I am naked unless they are on top of me or I am on top of them.”

Tommy John / Jim Kaat - Tommy John - best known for a surgery (that really should be named after Frank Jobe who actually invented it) - often gets lumped in with Jim Kaat as both have 280+ wins and unimpressive winning percentages.  On first glance, it’s easy to disregard them as pitchers who just pitched for a long time.

But let’s dig deeper.  Tommy John has the edge on QS % (61.6 to 58.4) and adjusted ERA (110 to 107).  Neither had impressive K/9 IP ratios (both below 5) or WHIPS (both above 1.25).  Tommy John finished in the top 5 in league ERA 6 times, 4 time All-Star, and 4 times finished in the top 10 for Cy Young.  Jim Kaat finished in the top 5 in league ERA 3 times, 3 time All-Star, and finished once in the top 10 for Cy Young.

The most surprising difference between the two are their Adjusted Win Difference - while Tommy John has a +31, Kaat has a -13.  In other words, if both won 74% of their Quality Starts, Tommy John would lead in wins 319 to 270.  While Tommy John notably pitched for the successful late 70’s Dodgers and 1979-1981 Yankees, he also had a number of years with mediocre to bad teams ranging from the White Sox, Indians, Angels, and even the Yanks (in his second tour of duty). Jim Kaat spent the bulk of his career with the Senators/Twins (1959-1972) which had a number of strong Killebrew/Oliva led teams (incidentally, Kaat only led the team in ERA once during that period - Jim Perry had the top team ERA for 4 of those years).

I think the strongest argument against Tommy John is his 110 ERA+ and unimpressive WHIP.  Given his low K-rate, these stats aren’t that surprising.  But Tommy John was above average for enough years (besides the 61.6% QS%, he had 18 years with 150+ IP and 100+ ERA+, 13 years with 150+ IP and 110+ ERA+) that I think he warrants HOF nomination.  It’s a close call, though.

As for Kaat, he falls below both the QS% and ERA+ thresholds and there isn’t much of a secondary argument for him that I can see.

Tommy John Vote:  YES

Jim Kaat Vote:  NO

Fun facts/anecdotes:  Only Nolan Ryan (27 seasons) has pitched more seasons than John (26) and Kaat (25).  Tommy John was successful in getting a surgery named after him but was unsuccessful in getting investors to finance his self-named port-o-potty.  Jim Kaat finished his 25-year playing career with a 25-year broadcasting career.  He plans on spending the next 25 years being that old guy by the Little League field who provides unsolicited and oft-ignored advice.

Rick Reuschel / Orel Hershiser - Who would have thought that Rick Reuschel would have the highest QS % out of this group?  Not me.  I just remember him on the Giants later in his career when he could go a whole game throwing a variety of mediocre fastballs and still win games.  But there he is at the top with Orel Hershiser.

So both these guys pass the 60+ QS% threshold and by a significant amount (63.7% Reuschel, 62.9% Hershiser).  That’s at or above Steve Carlton!  In addition, both benefit from the Adjusted Win analysis that ekes up their Win totals to 249 and 217, respectively.

Their ERA+s fall just below the mark at 114 (Reuschel) and 112 (Hershiser).  Their peripherals are just so-so - both had high WHIPS (greater than 1.25) and average K rates (below 6.0).

At the end of the day, I’d say both of these guys were very good pitchers and probably underrated (especially Reuschel) but fall below HOF-caliber.  While Tommy John had 300+ Adjusted Wins, neither of these guys crack 250.  If you’re going to go in with a ERA+ under 115, you at least need longevity on your side.  For comparison’s sake, Tommy John had 700 GS.  Blyleven had 685.  Reuschel was at 529.  Hershiser only 466.

Vote:  NO

The Rest - No one else passes the QS % and ERA+ test.  No one besides Tanana even passes 250 Adjusted Wins.  All very good pitchers but none appear HOF-worthy.