Fantasy Baseball Advice

Member the last time we looked at FIP?  You were younger, you!  Still looking good.  Love the touch with the bitten down fingernails.  You’re like the Krueger brother who had to open jars for Freddy.  Billy, could you open these pickles for me?  These stupid nails. Okay, so I usually look at which pitchers are being lucky or unlucky monthly during the season, but let’s do a recap of who was lucky last year.  It might help with your drafting, but I do go over all of this in individual blurbs in the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings, where it’s applicable.  But thinking gives you the Mondays, so here I am.  On Friday.  xFIP — stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching.  It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you.  It’s a pure ERA.  It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it.  It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it.  That’s xFIP.  Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher, who has an ERA of 2.75, but his xFIP is a 6.75.  A -4.00 difference.  That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up.  So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for all of last year. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)

Jair Jurrjens – -1.74 difference.  And that was before he went for an MRI on his shoulder.  P.W. Botha isn’t the only one getting The Gas Face.

J.A. Happ – -1.59.  Can Happ avoid the sophomore slump?  Sure, if Ryan Howard gives up cheesesteaks, learns to fly and knocks every ball down that is hit off of Happ.

Matt Cain – -1.32.  He should’ve regressed the entire year last year, but he Keyser Soze’d his way through it.  Unlike the above two names, Cain’s above a 7 K/9, so I have some love for him.

Randy Wells – -1.19.  Okay, Wells was also lucky last year.  Not great, but he does keep his walks down.  Kinda like my overweight aunt.

Bronson Arroyo – -1.16.  Eh, he shouldn’t be owned until July anyway.

Johan Santana – -1.00.  But he was injured.  But what if he’s not fully healed?  And the falling K-rate?  I don’t know… Damn, random italicized voice, you’re supposed to be for comic relief, not for making actual points.  My bad.

Randy Wolf – -0.93.  I don’t think anyone, including Wolf, really thought he was for real last year.

Edwin Jackson – -0.78.  Don’t you just love it when pitchers I’m not excited about end up on the list of pitchers to avoid?  Yeah, don’t wanna blow your mind right here, but it was kinda planned that way.

John Danks – -0.77.  Last year, I liked Danks and disliked Floyd.  This year, the opposite.  Danks for the memories.  Danks, but no Danks.  Danks for nothing.  You pick the bad wordplay.

The top 20, 40, 60 and 80 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball can be found under the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  For those of you who spent most of college like me here’s the Cliff Notes version of the starters.  If you click on some of the player’s names, you’ll see whole posts dedicated to these doodes with 2010 fantasy baseball projections.  Anyway, here’s some starters to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Jonathan Sanchez – 200 Ks; ADP 200-something.  That’s like having extra butter on your movie popcorn and control over the artificial sour cream seasoning shaker.  Hint:  Take off the lid and pour it on.  It’s wonderful.

Johnny Cueto – His name makes him sound like an 80’s teen movie villain, but there’s nothing to be scared of unless you’re a TOTAL DORK!

David Price – I have a sneaky suspicion that 2011 is going to be the year you’re going to love owning Price, but he can still provide moderate value.

Tim Hudson – They can’t all be Jimmy Upsidieros.

Jorge de la Rosa – I see lots of people drafting him so I smile gently, but I feel obliged to tell you he could be absolutely ugly.  dlR’s not for our elderly readers whose nurses regularly hide their meds.  (But if we do have elderly readers, find “Cheap Trick” in this post and replace it with “Douglas MacArthur.”)

Ervin Santana – As terrifically awful as last year was, you have remember that was one year, just as 2008 was one year.  Don’t be so reactionary.

Clay Buchholz – Kinda bummed there’s so many AL pitchers on this list.  Not thrilled at all that there’s two AL East pitchers on this list.  Don’t own them both; you’ll go batty.  Literally.

Kevin Slowey – I haven’t written much about Slowey outside of the blurb in the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball post-thingie-whosieski, but that’s wrong I tell ya.  I kinda want to own Slowey everywhere.  I dislike walks.  Slowey doesn’t do those.  I like strikeouts.  Slowey does those.  I’m gushing.  You hear me?  Gushing.

Gio Gonzalez – He had nearly a 10 K/9 in just under 100 innings last year.  Wouldn’t surprise me if he’s the A’s pitcher to own this year.  Not Anderson.  If you’re wondering how Gio works into the starting rotation, think about the Aetna-sponsored twosome of Sheets and Duchscherer.

Mat Latos – Could go from a Hodgepadre to a number three fantasy starter.  Act like you know, MC Lyte.

Ian Kennedy – All prospects that leave New York, farm system included, must also lose any hype.  We’ll call it The Felipe Lopez, Not That Felipe Lopez Rule. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Kennedy emerge as a fantasy three to four starter.

Sean Gallagher – More of a deep league option, or NL-Only, as Gallagher doesn’t have a rotation spot.  But you know where Gallagher will be smashing his watermelons in May?  In Petco.  Aw, sookie-sookie now.

Aroldis Chapman – Looking more and more like he could get the 5th starter job.  Well, he’s for real and he’s spectacular.

Colby Lewis – No one’s career has seen a bigger boost after going to Japan since Cheap Trick.  Feels like every year the Rangers have someone who’s way overhyped.  Has everyone forgotten that Lewis had a 6.71 ERA in his major league career before being rejuvenated in the Japanese Bubbling Spring of Soba Noodles?  Not to mention, he’s been hit this spring and Arlington isn’t exactly Petco or Metco.  So I wouldn’t target Lewis even though he’s in this post.  I just hadn’t talked about him and, well, now I have.

This is the conundrum of fantasy baseball that leads us to the battle for the final rotation spot.  These guys either have one of two options: drive around on a bus with the Savannah Sand Gnats, or float for awhile (swimming is an entirely different sport). These guys aren’t necessarily the sexiest group of fantasy options, but if your league is deep or shallow, streaming is streaming.  I do it a lot in limitless inning leagues.  It’s not cheating — it’s taking advantage of other owners who don’t do it.  Picking your “spot” starts is always hit or miss, best way to tell if you should stream is to read the betting line — I can’t make this stuff up.  People who stand to win/lose money know what is going on here.  So here we go:  the 5th starter battles for 2010 fantasy baseball at the midpoint of Spring Training:

Braves

Kenshin Kawakami – Pitched decent last year.  Under 4.00 ERA from the 5th spot is gold.  SP/RP eligibility is platinum.  I’m for this guy — he keeps the ball on the ground.

Kris Medlen – Maybe youth can be served in the A T L.  Minors number show he has some potential. To me, he looks like a midseason trade guy for offense.

Phillies

Kyle Kendrick – I bought some of his juice 2 years ago. I’ve seen him twice this spring already and he looked pretty decent.  Plays in a HR friendly environment — not good.

Jose Contreras – Grizzled old Cuban not named Livan. Gives them the “I have been there before” guy to have in a pinch.  Moyer is lurking around somewhere too.

Reds

Aroldis Chapman – Now we are getting to “ooh” guys.  We all know about him — he is climbing up the ADP boards.  I think he gets 5-6 starts in minors.  Awesome potential; future number 2.

Matt Maloney – The designated place holder at the onset of the season.  Has potential.  Do not sleep on him — he may be a better contributor after they trade of Bronson/Harang.

Mike Leake – Yeah, he is still in contention in my eyes.  Awesome polish.  Well beyond his years on the mound.  Ponder this for next year:  Cueto, Chapman, Bailey Volquez and Leake.  WOW.  Pretty decent, I’d say.

Brewers

Dave Bush – It’s feast or famine:  head for the mountains and choose anyone but “bush.”  Having a decent enough spring to make you go…. maybe.

Manny Parra – Potent offense may help both of these guys.  Good K numbers, bad everything else is not a fair trade off for me. Mostly NL-Only help here, but roll the dice when it gets warmer.

Cardinals

Jaime Garcia – Rook is ready. Saw him pitch live and he has the goods that you’re looking for.  The “Lou” is definitely going lefty with the 5.  Minor league numbers are good enough to buy for a dollar.

Rich Hill – I told you it’s either Mickelson or Gomez.  Duncan’s pet project this year.  Had the goods to make everyone believe 3 years ago.  Yeah… you know who you are.

Dodgers

Eric Stults – Loved him as Rocky Dennis — not so much for the Dodgers.  Thirty-year-old may be a late bloomer. Worrisome high walk rate. Pitching well in Spring Training.

James McDonald – E I E I O, minor league success at every level.  Dodgers SP is very overrated. They may need his potential at the back end of the rotation.

Yankees

Phil Hughes – Joba has fallen into the pen, IMO.  Hughes has only himself to blame if he goes to join him. Awesome potential three years ago; he was a top 5 prospect. Still only 23.  SP/RP eligibility.

Alfredo Aceves – Gaudin is helping his cause. Destined for long relief.  ‘Fredo could be a guy who sneaks in. Had a year talking to the G.O.A.T in the pen.

A’s

Gio Gonzalez – Awesome punch out numbers.  Favorite of mine for sneaky late round pick.  His peripherals make me sad.

Vin Mazzaro – A fellow “Dirty Jerzian.”  Is the opposite of Gio:  pitches to contact.  For my money, he is the extremely poor man’s version of Slowey.  Last seen with JWOWW and Snooki at Jenks.

Twins

Francisco Liriano – I’m truly tired of talking about this guy. Now they want him to be a closer… Minny is throwing in the towel already.  Not a great idea. That Pierzynski trade right now looks good for this year.

Royals

Kyle Farnsworth – Yeah him.  I got nothing.  Horrible as a reliever.  Hillman drinking the sauce for an early unemployment check.

Kyle Davies – Still have nothing.  For giggles, look up his Spring numbers. I haven’t seen that fat of a number since 7 ate 9.

Robinson Tejada – Time to take the training wheels off.  Previously admired by me.  Great K potential. Looked great in final 6 starts last year.  RP/SP eligible a plus.

Rangers

Matt Harrison – Arlington bleachers gobble up fly balls in summer — unfun for pitchers. My money says Feliz pitches out of the pen to start the year.  Decent Spring so far.

Derek Holland – Great potential. Needs to develop a third pitch.  There really is no loser here:  both will get starts as Harden and McCarthy are “fra-gee-lay” and neither are Italian.

Orioles

Davis Hernandez -  Great K numbers in the minors.  Did decent enough last year to be considered here.  Not the prospect that his competition is.

Chris Tillman -  Another sleeper guy for non-dynasty leagues that I like. Is part of the handful of Baltimore top pitching specs.  Don’t sleep on him.

AJ Hinch said, “Conor Jackson screams two-hole to me right now.”  That’s what Mexican food does to me.  Speaking of Mexican food, Conor Jackson is in a good position for runs, hitting in front of J-Upside, LaCucaracha, and Mini Donkey.  That’s also a good spot for LaRoche, assuming the D-Backs aren’t facing a lefty and it’s after the All-Star Break.  I tease.  Who knows, maybe LaRoche will get his act together, hit well the whole year and be a decent sleeper in the end rounds at your corner infidel spot.  Both Jackson and LaRoche are being drafted right now like they don’t even exist and, well, that feels wrong.  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball news:

Andrew Bailey – Out for a week with tennis elbow.  No word exactly what caused it, but we’re guessing it’s from all the pressure on his serving when playing with his doubles’ partner, Brad Ziegler.  Stop with your underhand serve!  Wuertz hasn’t pitched yet in the spring, Waking Joey Devine is Walking Wounded Joey Devine until he sees game action, so that leaves Ziegler.  Here’s my IM exchange with Rudy about picking up Ziegler.   Me, “I’m grabbing Ziegler.”  Rudy, “Forget it, Grey, it’s Oaktown.”  He was right; I forgot it.  Bailey could still be ready to start the season, so this isn’t an immediate add, but, as I’ve been saying in the offseason, Bailey’s not that safe.  This could be a bullpen by committee by May 1st and Ziegler’s probably the third man on the totem pole.  Hard to say right now with so many injuries.  If this were in the middle of the season, I would’ve grabbed Ziegler.

Armando Galarraga – Optioned to the minors.  Minor league hitters celebrate.

Angel Guzman – Visited Dr. Freeze earlier this week.  Today, he’s on ice for most of the season.

J.R. Towles – Front-runner for the job of catcher in Houston as he bats .550 so far in the spring.  There’s not much power in his bat, but he could be a post-hype sleeper for the late round catcher brigade.

Scott Downs – Scott Downs’ Syndrome lives on as Gaston said that Downs is likely to open the season as the set-up man.  Gregg’s my frontrunner for the closer job.

Cliff Lee – Suspended for first 5 games of the season.  He tested positive for surliness.

Brandon Webb – Aiming for late-April.  Anyone wanna take bets that late-April becomes late-May?

Ron Washington – Tested positive for cocaine.  Last year, he fully admitted his transgression to the Rangers and MLB.  Then he admitted it again, then he rubbed his gums, then he asked if anyone had a smoke, then he admitted it again, then he talked at length about the differences between Whit Stillman’s Barcelona and that disco movie, then he went to a diner to “get some grub.”

We already went over what it took to win your fantasy baseball league for 12 teams.  Don’t believe me?  Click this.  Sucker!  You got Rick Schroder rolled!  Or not because you read this part before you clicked it.  I know, 2002 called, they want their internet meme back.  Okay, here’s what it takes to win your 12 team fantasy baseball league.  Now here we have what it takes to win a 10, 14 and 16 team league.  I’m not going to breakdown how much it takes to move up each point because with a little math you should be able to figure it out on your own.  Look at me having high hopes for you Razzballers.  This is for the roster of C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/MI/CI/UTIL/9 P.  Anyway, here’s what it takes to win a 10, 14 and 16 team fantasy baseball league:

10 TEAM — In a 10 team league, you should aim for around 80 points. That’s 3rd place, which is noted for each category below.

RUNS

Average — 1088
High — 1204
Low — 972
3rd Place — 1152

HOME RUNS

Average — 262
High — 309
Low — 215
3rd Place — 288

RUNS BATTED IN

Average — 1054
High — 1173
Low — 935
3rd Place — 1120

STEALS

Average — 166
High — 230
Low — 103
3rd Place — 202

AVERAGE

Average — .283
High — .295
Low — .270
3rd Place — .290

WINS

Average — 80
High — 97
Low — 63
3rd Place — 90

SAVES

Average — 75
High — 156
Low — 44
3rd Place — 131

ERA

Average — 3.83
High — 3.23
Low — 4.42
3rd Place — 3.47

WHIP

Average — 1.28
High — 1.21
Low — 1.34
3rd Place — 1.24

STRIKEOUTS

Average — 1099
High — 1285
Low — 913
3rd Place — 1202

14 TEAM — In a 14 team league, you’re in contention if you have around 110 points.  Or 4th place, which is noted in the categories below.

RUNS

Average — 1030
High — 1140
Low — 919
4th Place — 1089

HOME RUNS

Average — 242
High — 282
Low — 202
4th Place — 264

RUNS BATTED IN

Average — 990
High — 1102
Low — 878
4th Place — 1050

STEALS

Average — 143
High — 195
Low — 92
4th Place — 171

AVERAGE

Average — .279
High — .291
Low — .267
4th Place — .286

WINS

Average — 77
High — 93
Low — 61
4th Place — 86

SAVES

Average — 54
High — 117
Low — 33
4th Place — 98

ERA

Average — 3.95
High — 3.34
Low — 4.56
4th Place — 3.60

WHIP

Average — 1.30
High — 1.24
Low — 1.37
4th Place — 1.27

STRIKEOUTS

Average — 1024
High — 1197
Low — 851
4th Place — 1117

16 TEAM — In a 16 team league, you’re in contention if you have around 120 points.  Or 5th place, which is noted in the categories below.

RUNS

Average — 993
High — 1099
Low — 887
5th Place — 1042

HOME RUNS

Average — 230
High — 268
Low — 192
5th Place — 248

RUNS BATTED IN

Average — 954
High — 1062
Low — 846
5th Place — 1004

STEALS

Average — 135
High — 184
Low — 87
5th Place — 158

AVERAGE

Average — .279
High — .291
Low — .267
5th Place — .286

WINS

Average — 77
High — 93
Low — 61
5th Place — 86

SAVES

Average — 54
High — 117
Low — 33
5th Place — 98

ERA

Average — 3.95
High — 3.34
Low — 4.56
5th Place — 3.60

WHIP

Average — 1.31
High — 1.25
Low — 1.38
5th Place — 1.28

STRIKEOUTS

Average — 1013
High — 1184
Low — 842
5th Place — 1093