When Grey and Jay first approached me about doing some preseason posts about Two Start Pitchers “Strategy” I thought “uhhhh, play the best guy”. Problem is that doesn’t really make for intriguing content, now does it? So instead, I’m going to do 1500 words about soccer! Naw, I’m joking…if you wanted to be inundated with my footie ramblings, you’d be reading our soccer site…(shameless plug alert). So instead I’ll focus my post on the very things I look for when ranking my two-start pitchers from week-to-week. An overview of what to look for when scouring the wire for that pick up to tip the scales of your counting stats in your weekly head-to-head match-up. So we’ll break everything into sections; home vs. road splits, opposing lineup righty vs. lefty splits, K/BB ratio, and HR/9. To illustrate this we’ll use an example player to discuss each when appropriate. Sound good? Just say yes, I don’t care what you think! Muhahahaha!Please, blog, may I have some more?
Per the usual, I have to drop a caveat when it comes to Deep League Thoughts about pitchers: there’s no such thing as a deep league pitcher. Unless you’re talking 20 team leagues and then you’re calling some relievers deep league pitchers. I ain’t going there so let’s realize upfront before you feel affronted. Now that we have that settled, when does a young pitcher settle? Two years? Four years? Do they ever? It’s all hard to predict. As we’ve seen through our years as fantasy baseballers, growth isn’t a promise from a young kid, it’s a possibility. How many rookies came and went on your rosters in 2014 alone? I’m not asking you, Grey. You’d add and drop the same player five times in one day so you don’t count, you chronic rosterbator. That said, I’m sure Trevor Bauer hit your roster more than once. He had some good with some bad in 2014. Maybe you got the bad from him and won’t go near him again. Maybe you had more of the good like I did and you’re willing to look into him a bit further. If so, trudge on with me. We’re about to go deep inside the enigma that is Bauer and what he can do for you for the 2015 Fantasy Baseball season…Please, blog, may I have some more?
Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America
2014 (9) | 2013 (3) | 2012 (2) | 2011 (15) | 2010 (2)
2014 Affiliate Records
MLB: [67-95] AL West
AAA: [70-74] Pacific Coast League – Round Rock
AA: [80-59] Texas League – Frisco
A+: [82-56] Carolina League – Myrtle Beach (2015: High Desert)
A: [80-59] South Atlantic League – Hickory
A(ss): [40-36] Northwest League – Spokane
Rougned Odor, 2B | Nick Martinez, RHP | Michael Choice, OF
This system is full of risk/reward prospects with big ceilings. It’s also deep, and I had a hard time narrowing it down to just 10 to be honest. Fringe top ten guys like Keone Kela could help the major league bullpen as soon as 2016, and Kela’s triple-digit heater looks like the stuff of a closer. Then there’s Delino DeShields Jr. who was a Rule 5 selection from the Astros. DeShields hit 11 homers and stole 54 bases in Double-A last season. You can’t throw a stone without hitting a fantasy relevant prospect on this farm. Heading into 2015, Rougned Odor will get another extended look at second base while Jurickson Profar continues to battle shoulder issues. For what it’s worth, I still like Profar in dynasty leagues and at just 22 years old he still has plenty of time to get things back on track.
I know how much you love draft strategy (do you? Yeah, of course you do!). Whether it’s snake draft or auction draft. You gobble this shizz up. Okay, I wasn’t speaking literally, take the corner of your computer monitor out of your mouth. Auction drafts are the best. They’re like that time you followed a man with a pony tail into the gym locker room only to realize his broad shoulders were that of a large lesbian and you were in the women’s locker room and had to run out. Happy accidents! So, lots of you know my fantasy baseball auction tips already, but some of you just joining us — Hey, close the door behind you! Were you raised in a barn? — may not. Lots of the strategy for my snake drafts also applies here. If you ask me — and you kinda did ask me by reading this shizz — auction drafts are where it’s at, yo! You get in a room with your best fantasy baseball buddies. The guys you haven’t seen since last year’s draft. The guys you don’t want to see until next year’s draft. One guy, and there’s always one, has to show you why the Droid is better than the iPhone. Then you have the guy who will go the extra dollar for (fill-in favorite player from his favorite team). You know that’s his favorite player because he’s wearing his jersey. There’s also the guy who wears a jersey of a player he would never draft from a team he hates just to throw you off his scent, only he points this out to show you how clever he thinks he is; he’s not. There’s the guy that makes you question why you’re even friends with him. There’s the guy who has a solar calculator and insists on sitting by the window. There’s the guy who is allergic to cats and, even though there’s no cat, insists someone’s clothes are ‘covered in dander.’ There’s the guy who brings healthy snacks and something with bean sprouts that he says is wrapped in a lavash just so no one will ask him for any of it. There’s the guy on Skype because he has to babysit, which makes for a crying baby in the background of the entire draft. And, of course, you have the guy who brings only Cheetos and turns everything he touches orange, and, if he touches something that was already orange, he makes it oranger. Through all of this, it always turns out, this day is the best day of the year. As for online auction drafts, they’re just a’ight. Anyway, here’s some tried and true tips to help you through your auction fantasy baseball draft:Please, blog, may I have some more?
I thought a fair amount about what the topic should be of my second article, and while I would have been happy to continue waxing theoretically about what a fantasy baseball bot might look like, I figure people probably want to see some actual code or at the very least pseudo-code. You’ll settle for some pseudo-code, right? Great.Please, blog, may I have some more?
We are almost there folks. Where is there? Draft time. BUT EVERYONE JUST HOLD UP FOR A SECOND. Remember that one time when I set 100 RCL’s as my personal goal, and therefore, by mitosis, or photosynthesis, or osmosis, or dry-humping, it became your personal goal? Yeah. In this regard, we are not almost there. I mean, technically we are, only 25 more leagues… but drafts are right around the corner. It’s gonna be close. WE’RE TOO CLOSE MAN. Just 25 more commissioners… look, how about this… if you go commish a league right now (yes, we can totally have more than 100, in fact, I prefer it), I promise to go over some of the leagues that have drafted already. Sure, that’s something I was going to do anyways, but this comes with free shipping and handling. Because boy do I know how to handle it. Whatever that means. But sure, even if you don’t commish a league, you can still continue reading after the jump… I can’t stop you, per say. But I promise you there will be guilt. I WILL MAKE YOU FEEL LIKE A CATHOLIC. If you’re already Catholic, well, you have enough guilt to deal with, so yeah. Take that, I guess.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Everyone knows that the most hitter friendly ballpark in the Major Leagues is Coors Field, home to the Colorado Rockies. We all love us some Rockies on our fantasy rosters, but we also enjoy when our non-Rockies players visit the Mile-High City. Mile-High, Colorado… Not even gonna go there. So many possibilities. I’m sure most have been done already.
So… how do the fantasy points stack up? Does Coors Field live up to its reputation when it comes to the points? It sure does! Last year there were 4,269 fantasy points scored there by batters. That is more than double the 2,063 points scored at Petco Park in San Diego, which came in dead last. Exactly as many would have predicted, Coors with the most, Petco with the least. But what about in between. What other ballparks were fantasy points friendly in 2014?Please, blog, may I have some more?
Wah-wah. Sad trombone. “Those aren’t pillows!” Or whatever signal you want for a reversal from good to bad. That was what I heard when it was announced that Victor Martinez had a torn meniscus, which reminds me of a conversation I had when calculators were first introduced in 1961 and I had to abandon my loyalty to my other counting device, screaming, “I’m torn, abacus!” I got sad when Martinez was hurt, not because I wanted to draft him and now he had an injury. I was saddened because now I figured my ranking of him in the 110’s wouldn’t be as low as other ‘perts. You know, they’d hear this news and lower him. Much to my surprise, I overestimated the rest of the ‘pert world. They still have him ranked 75 overall on average. *scratches head* You know, head scratching really doesn’t help one understand anything, which sounds like a line from C.J. Wilson’s latest dandruff commercial. CBS has him ranked 15th overall. I’m not even joking. I wish I were. “Your final wish is granted.” No, Genie in a Bottle, it’s a figure of speech! Okay, it looks like CBS has changed his ranking slightly, that was before the knee surgery. Stupid, wish-taking Genie! Martinez is still ranked way too high, and it has nothing to do with the surgery. So, what makes Victor Martinez overrated for 2015 fantasy baseball?Please, blog, may I have some more?
The road to creating fantasy baseball auction dollar projections is paved with many decisions. Some are plagued with methodological potholes but, if done right, the resulting $ projections should basically get to the same place. (The player projections are the primary driver in differences between competent systems)
Since this is the time of the year where this topic matters, I thought I would shine a light on some of the less visible decisions that impact fantasy baseball auction dollar estimates. I will do my best to keep this from devolving into a mathematical or methodological exercise.
These musings will bleed into at least a second post. This first post is going to focus solely on Position Adjustments.
I have been spending a lot of time thinking about position adjustments this preseason. A significant portion of the fantasy baseball world seems to unconditionally believe that ‘position scarcity’ exists. EVERY draft has a number of C/2B/SS that would be drafted later if they were 1B/3B/OF.
Here are four theories on position adjustments – ranging from smallest to largest:Please, blog, may I have some more?
The day of reckoning is upon us. You could even say that today is judgment day. The pitching machine known as the Klubot didn’t feel pity, or remorse, or even elbow pain en route to 269 hitter terminations via the strikeout last season and earning the ’14 Cy Young Award to take into the future. But the question remains, “Why was Terminator Salvation even made?” Wait a second, wrong question. The one we’re looking to answer today is: “Who is the next Klubot off of the assembly line?”
In the first part of this series, we identified the starting pitchers who met the “Kluber criteria” during the 2012 and 2013 seasons. But what exactly are those criteria comprised of? Here are the search parameters that I used to try to find the next Corey Kluber:Please, blog, may I have some more?