Fantasy Baseball Advice

This week’s Fantasy Roundtable is hosted by phonetically fetishy friends at Fantasy Phenoms.

THE TOPIC: Three pitchers who have exceeded expectations so far are Jon Lester, Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander. Owners of these pitchers have been relying on them as weekly starters who play an intricate role for their fantasy teams. All three are on pace to strike out over 240 batters. If you had to choose one of these pitchers to continue this trend, who would it be? Why?

All three pitchers got a vote so it’ll be interesting to see how all us ‘perts will look in retrospect. I just wish the Phenoms offered up Jason Marquis because I think he’s a lock for 22+ wins…

Stop the press. Who is that?  Vicki Vale?  Nope.  Ricky Romero, Ricky Romero.  Yesterday, Romero went 8 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks with 8 baserunners.  Let’s go in the Wayback Machine… Cue dream sequence music, activate wavy screen… Here we are back on April 20th, “(Romero’s) walks are very low (for him), and he’s left a lot of guys on base, so he will see a correction in his future (SMACK!), but his FIP is only 3.86 (now at 4.20).  …Might want to try a little R & R. (POW!) Oh, and get Ben Zobrist right now even though he only has 3 homers.”  And that’s me quoting me and making up a false quote about Zobrist!  Pretty much all that holds true from back in April.  Ricky Romero continues to get lucky with men he’s leaving on base, so that could turn around and bite him at any moment.  But you really should own him at this point, though I wouldn’t start him in The Jetstream next time out.  Slide, slide, slippity slide… The Jetstream!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Elijah Dukes – Frequent commenter, Doc said, “Dukes sent to AAA on Wednesday. Nats host Domestic Violence Awareness Day at Nationals Park on Friday.” Nats seem like they’re going from 5-tool outfielders to 1-tool — Dunn, Willingham… Maybe they can get Jack Cust to play center.

Sean Burnett – Gave up the game-tying homer to Cody Ross.  Welcome to the Washington Nationals organization.  If you wish to excel, you’ve come to the wrong place.  Here you will either fail or be ignored when you succeed.  Don’t bother with the life preservers.  On his way out of town, Dukes punctured them all.

Kelly Johnson – Cox says Prado’s has won the starting job over Kelly Johnson.  Bad year to be a Johnson or a Wang.

Alexei Ramirez – Hurt his middle finger and will have X-Rays.  I’m preparing to give him my middle finger if he’s out for an extended time.

Mike Aviles – Out for the season with Tommy John surgery.  As opposed to, out for the season with terrible stats as he had been.

Justin Morneau – Left yesterday’s game with a slight groin pull.  Isn’t that what they booked Pee Wee Herman on?  Word out of the Twin Cities is Morneau should be okay.

Brandon Webb – Here’s the good news, Webb doesn’t need season-ending surgery.  Here’s the bad news, he’s not scheduled to pick up a baseball any time soon.  Everyone’s talking about dropping Peavy, but I’d expect Peavy to return before Webb.

Josh Johnson – 3 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 9 baserunners and 1 debt of gratitude to Badenhop for bailing him out.  Not to be a nervous Nelly and start putting Band-Aids on my face, but I hope Johnson wasn’t lackluster because of any sort of injury.

Leo Nunez – Got the save, Meyer got the vulture win.  Who ya gonna call? Maroone!

Jordan Zimmermann – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  Continues to pitch much better than his 4.52 ERA indicates.

James Shields – 7 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 Ks.  Would’ve been too easy to take him out prior to the 8th inning when he had only given up two runs.  *shakes fist at sky*  Maddon!!!

Brad Bergesen – 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks, 4 baserunners vs. the Sawx.  High GB %, Low K Rate. Like a featherweight, he doesn’t knock opponents out as much as outlast them and wins on points. That’s serviceable enough if he’s fighting against pushover opponents in friendly confines like the NL West (see Cook, Aaron) but the heavy punchers of the AL East….forget about it.

Koji Uehara – Out with a tear in his elbow.  Punt!

George Sherrill – 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  With the trade deadline less than a month away, Sherrill’s auditioning for the job of Nats closer.

Mike Pelfrey – 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 6 Ks.  Has been terrifically yawnstipating this year, averaging about 5 and two-thirds per start with a 4.26 ERA and 1.44 WHIP and no Ks.

Jason Hammel – 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks, 5 baserunners.  Has a 2.13 ERA away from home.  I’ll say it again for the people in the back of the room, 2.13 away from Coors.  Unfortunately, he’s at home for his next three of four starts.

Clayton Kershaw – 5 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit.  Hopefully Kershaw’s niche doesn’t remain these 5 inning affairs.  Don’t want no short stint man.

Juan Rivera – HR yesterday as picks up in July as he was hitting in June, a month that saw him hit 8 homers.  Yes, months can see.

Jered Weaver – 5 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  Ouch.  Wait, what?  Oh.  Ouch.

Vladimir Guerrero – 3-for-4, 0 RBIs, has two homers on the year.  Maicer Izturis has 2 homers on the year.  Cust kayin’.

Yovani Gallardo/Adam Wainwright – Dozen Ks and one earned run a piece as they faced David Wright +8 and The Team That Let Bonds Break Aaron’s Record and Now Karma’s Repaying, respectively.

Johnny Cueto – 6 IP, 0 ER.  Ah, it’s nice to be done with interleague.

Jay Bruce – 0-for-3, batting .212 on the year.  I see what he’s doing.  He’s setting himself up to be a sleeper next year.  Pretty sneaky, Bruce.

Randy Wells – 7 IP, 1 ER.  I thought he was done being productive a few starts ago.  Wells obviously thought different.  He has a solid K to Walk ratio and is worth taking a chance on in 10 team leagues and deeper.

Hank Blalock – 2 HRs, now has 16 on the year as he resumes the role of oft-injured 3rd baseman that has to play DH because he’s oft-injured.

Frank Francisco – 1 IP, 3 ER.  Sure, this is about as much as a limb as John Cusack playing a misfit hipster with a strange job who girls like as a friend until he declares his love in some offbeat fashion, but Francisco’s not right.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wilson getting saves again.

This week has been rather chaotic, or maybe that is just my brain failing on me.  Either way, Grey stole this week’s pitcher for StU – Carlos Carrasco – on Monday. I’m not bitter, just was hoping to beat him to the punch.  But he covered most of what is needed to be covered. I would most definitely pick him up and see what kind of results he has on Thursday.  On this past Sunday, while rummaging through a sports book rack at Barnes and Noble, I found Baseball America 2009 Prospect Handbook and most definitely recommend reading this mighty fine book, that is, of course, if you are willing to shell out $30.   It’s worth it, promise!

Something I have noticed about my writing recently (aka this past week) has been that I write strictly from a fantasy player’s perspective. Upon reading the scouting reports from Baseball America, I realize sometimes the numbers only tell part of the story. Needless to say, remember this, as some of my analysis negates some personal theories of some teams. Hope you enjoy this week’s StU!

Mat Latos | SP | San Diego Padres | DOB – 12/9/87 | 6-5 | 210 lbs | Bats/throws Right | SD’s #2 Prospect according to Baseball America

Cube Ratings: Control (79) | K-rating (100) | Efficiency (88)

Mat Latos is the best pitching prospect in the Padres minors, but he wasn’t drafted until the 11th round in 2006 because of character and contract issues. Well, the character issues are still there. He is a extremely competitive player on days he pitches, but tends to become a team hindrance on days he doesn’t – this was from Baseball America’s conversations with scouts, managers and team reps. This may have changed in recent months, aka this year, but I didn’t find anything in articles that would have changed that. For strictly fantasy purposes, character issues are only a problem if the team won’t let him pitch, and I doubt that will happen.

He throws a 94 to 95 mph fastball that at times touches 97 to 98 mph. On the 20 to 80 scale, it rates as a 70 (or a plus pitch). Well, that seems pretty obvious. To compliment that power pitch, he throws a late breaking, hard slider, and a change-up that is a work in progress. The slider has been developed pretty well, but that change-up will need to continue to improve to see success at the next several levels. So far this year, he has pitched extraordinarily well at A and AA. The success at A ball has been helped by a remarkably low BABIP (.168), but it was enough to get him promoted to AA and the BABIP (.281) has remained low. He has above average command of his fastball and successfully throws the slider.

From a numbers standpoint, his control has been getting better with each passing year (BB/9 – 3.36, 2.1, 1.7 [2007-present]), but his k-rate is decreasing (11.8, 11.1, 9.2 [2007-present]). Hmm, but he is pitching better and better as indicated by a low twos FIP in all three years, and an improving WHIP (1.41, 1.11, .77 [07-present]. The only knock on him right now, is that he has only pitched 56 1/3 and 56 innings the last two years, and is now at 63 1/3 innings this year. According to Tom Verducci’s pitching rule, he should only pitch, oh about two to three more starts. Due to the fact that he was drafted out of high school, this will inhibit the time of his MLB debut because of the innings limit (for another example of innings playing a part on development look here at one of my old articles about Jonathan Sanchez). However, some scouts have said that he could be used in a late inning bullpen role, but that doesn’t make sense unless the Padres are contending, and well, that isn’t the case this year (for now).

The future upside is a middle of the rotation spot, or a late inning bullpen role. I would love to see him this year, but it would be highly unlikely. His control is extremely nice, and the k-rate should stay near the eight to nine levels through AAA. Expect large things from Latos in 2010, and maybe a September call up this year, but that is highly unlikely.

Ben Revere | OF | Minnesota Twins | DOB – 5/3/88 | 5-9 | 166 lbs | Bats/throws Left/Right | MN’s #2 Prospect according to Baseball America

Cube Ratings: Power (25) | Speed (98) | Contact (94) | Patience (24)

There are several things to know about Mr. Revere. First, he isn’t a slap hitter as he has some gap to gap power (think Jacoby Ellsbury). Second, he doesn’t strike out much, or walk near enough (BB% – 6.4, 7.4, 8.8 | K% 10.5, 9.1, 8.5 [07 – present]), though these numbers are getting way better. Third, his main asset is his speed. Fourth, he is a prototypical leadoff hitter. Lastly, his defense is great, his range is far, but his arm rivals Juan Pierre. Aaron Gleeman (the senior writer for baseball at Rotoworld, and fellow Twins fan/addict) says his hitting is Juan Pierre-esque (and for the older gentlemen – Lance Johnson), and his upside is Kenny Lofton or Johnny Damon. Those aren’t bad names to be compared to, unless Juan Pierre production doesn’t entice you (as a real team it should be nice, as a fantasy player, not quite as much).

Revere was drafted out of high school by the Twins in 2007, and they were highly criticized by picking him “too early,” and for trying to save money. Well, Revere responded by hitting .325/.388/.461 with 21 SB in 2007 at rookie ball (in 191 AB). Then in 2008 he hit .379/.433/.497 with 44 SB at A ball (in 340 AB). His ISO in 2008 was .118, which was league average, (other than adding a reference point, it shows little). The slugging percentage is high because he hit 10 triples in both ‘07 and ‘08 (only one home run combined in those two years).

This year he is hitting a more modest .319/.388/.381 with 28 SB (in 270 AB) at A+ ball, but with two home runs already. The added patience at the plate is nice, as is the decreasing k-rate. The only negative I could find is that he has been caught stealing 12 times this year while he was caught only 13 times all year last year when he stole 44 bases. His BABIP has been extraordinarily high too with .363, .416, and .343 (’07 – present respectably), and would imagine that those numbers will decrease as will his average. There is still time this year for his slugging percentage to be raised to a more respectable number, but he will never hit many home runs, but that is not his forte.

Don’t expect to see Revere anytime soon though. He is in the Twins farm system and they are extremely patient with high school players that they draft. I envision see a promotion to AA later this year, but he will not sniff the majors until late 2010.

It’s fitting that both the Nats and Pirates traded for a player with ‘Last’ in his name.  Lastings Milledge was sent to the Pirates along with Joel Hanrahananan for Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett.  Milledge and McCutchen can now share The Dread Pirate nickname.  How much of a slap in the face is it when you’re banished for being a problem child when Elijah Dukes is your teammate?  Is this a sign that the Nationals are no longer going to be the Home to Wayward 5-Tools Outfielders?   I can see Jim Bowden shedding a tear like he’s a 70’s era Native American watching his blessed land being desecrated.  Garrett Jones was called up, but he’s nothing more than a bench player.  Jones is an old prospect, which is different than an old prospector who says, “Aw, peaches!”  Joel Hanrahananan’s crizzap.  Been there, dropped him.  Nyjer Morgan showed up on a few Buy/Sells always as a Sell.  He ices my cockles, so to speak.  He’ll steal time from Dukes, who’s supposedly on the market too.  But last I looked, Dukes was stealing time from himself for hittin’ like he’s quittin’.  Burnett’s not going to really play into the picture for saves and, if he does, I wouldn’t own him, in the non-biblical sense.  Basically, what I’m saying is Avoid, Ignore, Ignore, Avoid.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Adrian Gonzalez – Left the game after sliding into third on a triple.  He didn’t immediately come out so that’s a good sign.  If he has to miss even a few games, any Padres opposing pitchers get an even bigger boost.

Eric Hinske – He was disappointed by lack of playing time with the Pirates.  A move to the Yanks should fix that real good.

Carlos Beltran – Good news from the Lilliputian doctor that performs micro-surgery.  Beltran should be back after the ASB.

Jake Peavy – Bad news as he’s expected to be out at least 6 more weeks.  I’d be shocked if we see him by September 1st.  Act accordingly.

Colby Rasmus – Sidelined with a hiatal hernia which he blames on late-night eating.  What on earth does someone eat to get a hernia? Rocky Mountain oysters?

Leo Nunez – Fredi said that the closer shituation is on a need basis, which means Meyer could still see some saves.

Edwin Encarnacion – Will return in about a week barring any setbacks. He’s worth stashing if you’re hurting at corner.  Could hit 5-7 homers a month the rest of the way.  Conservatively, I’d project him for 12/35/.250 if he stays healthy.

Dan Haren – 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks, 5 baserunners and he hit a homer.  Micah Owings gave him a standing ovation.

Jimmy Rollins – 0-for-5 as he filled in for Eric Bruntlett.

John Mayberry Jr. – 9-for-38 since his callup with 4 homers. After the game, Raul Ibanez accused him of steroids.

Shawn Estes – He said he is not retired from baseball.  He’s only retired from Triple-A.  Oh, okay.

Martin Prado – 4-for-5 as he filled in for Kelly Johnson who’s trying to recover from being awful.

John Smoltz – 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners.  He pitched fine, but was lifted during a rain delay.  No word yet who lifted him.  It’s probably safe to rule out Baldelli.

Jacoby Ellsbury – Hit a homer from the eight hole.  Lugo led off.  Maybe Francona’s been reading Torre’s tell-all.

Gordon Beckham – 3-for-4, and a homer.  He’s starring opposite Casey McGehee in, The Rise of the MI.

Cliff Lee – 3 IP, 7 ER.  I wonder if he was wearing a 2007 throwback jersey.

Chris Woodward – Got the start at third in Beltre’s absence.  Good to see the Mariners looking towards the future starting their 33-year-old journeyman.

Brandon Morrow – 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners.  No!  You were supposed to throw 6 innings this time out.  Oh, well.  Two steps forward, one step back.

Willy Aybar – 3-for-5 with his 7th homer and batted third.  He’s the Aybar that can help you in AL-Only leagues.

Sean West – 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER.  You want all the excitement owning rookie pitchers, here’s the other side of that coin.  He now has a 26:21 K to Walk ratio.  I ran my ultraviolet light over my bed sheets and it read, “Blech.”

Jorge Cantu – 3-for-4 yesterday and .323 in the last week.  Is that light at the end of the tunnel?

Prince Fielder – Hit his twentieth homer yesterday and now has 74 RBIs.  Where’s the love for the big man?  Does he need to go to rehab to be appreciated?  He kicked meat.  For a 400 pound man that should be enough.

Marlon Byrd – 2-for-5, 5 RBIs and two homers as he batted third.  What’s this, Ron Washington taking cues from Leyland?  Whoever’s nearest to the water cooler gets to bat third?  Bee tee dubya, Hamilton will be back this weekend so Washington can take the names out of the hat when filling out the lineup card.

Elvis Andrus – 4 steals yesterday.  With only 11 steals coming into the game, Andrus was a bit of a disappointment in the steals department so far, but if he can get to 35 on the year, he’ll definitely be worth owning.

Scott Baker – 5 IP, 1 ER, 1 K, only 7 baserunners and somehow threw 111 pitches.  I’m guessing lots of souvenirs into the stands.  He hasn’t had a terrible start since the end of May.  Definitely should be starting him every time out.

Albert Pujols – Has 30 homers with a .233 hitter behind him, followed by the skinnier of The Flying Molina Bros.

Mark DeRosa – Hurt his wrist and had to leave the game.  Hopefully this will drive down the FAAB price on him in Rudy’s NL-Only league.  Rudy’s bidding $751 if anyone from other blogs reads this.

Fernando Rodney – 1 IP, 2 ER.  One day Donkey-corn, next day Kazaam!  (This reminds me of something.  I was in the middle of writing a roundup one night and I wrote something similar to, “One day Donkey-corn, next day Kazaam,” and I started thinking about the people who stumble across Razzball and think they are reading absolute gibberish.  That’s all, just thought I’d share that thought.)

Jason Marquis – Threw a two-hitter vs. the Dodgers.  In other news, water is dry.

In this month’s closer look, let’s discuss trading for closers.  Now before people think my battleship has sunk, I’m not saying to pay top dollar for closers.  But with us heading into July, it should be pretty clear how badly you need saves.  Luckily, saves are one of the categories (steals are another) where you can make up ground quickfast.  If you’re ten or more saves behind a pack of people and can gain three or more points with an additional closer or two, then you should be thinking about trading for a couple.   I’d look to trade one player from your strengths for two closers.  Think Shields for two donkey-corns.  Or a donkey-corn and a brain freeze.  It really depends on your strengths and weaknesses.  And since saves do come in bunches, if you’re finding yourself picking up plenty of ground in saves, then in August, you can trade away a closer or two for a different piece.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Jonathan Broxton (Ronald Belisario, Ramon Troncoso, Cory Wade)
2. Francisco Rodriguez (Pedro Feliciano, Bobby Parnell)
3. Joe Nathan (Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares)
4. Jonathan Papelbon (Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

5. Heath Bell (Edward Mujica)
6. Mariano Rivera (+1) (Brian Bruney, Alfredo Aceves)
7. Bobby Jenks (-1) (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink)
8. Francisco Cordero (David Weathers, Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset)
9. Brian Fuentes (+2) (Darren Oliver, Justin Speier)
10. Ryan Franklin (+2) (Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan, Dennys Reyes)
11. Andrew Bailey (+16) (Brad Ziegler, Michael Wuertz, Santiago Casilla)
12. David Aardsma (+12) (Sean White, Mark Lowe, Chad Cordero)
13. Brian Wilson (+2) (Jeremy Affeldt, Bob Howry)
14. Huston Street (+6) (Joel Peralta, Manny Corpas)
15. Kevin Gregg (-1) (Carlos Marmol)
16. Fernando Rodney (+2) (Joel Zumaya, Bobby Seay)
17. George Sherrill (+5) (Jim Johnson, Danys Baez, Chris Ray)
18. Brad Lidge (-8) (Ryan Madson)
19. Mike Gonzalez (-2) (Rafael Soriano)
20. Jose Valverde (+8) (LaTroy Hawkins, Chris Sampson)
21. Joakim Soria (+4) (Juan Cruz, Jamey Wright, Kyle Farnsworth)
22. J.P. Howell (+8) (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, Joe Nelson)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

23. Trevor Hoffman (-1) (Carlos Villanueva, Todd Coffey, Mitch Stetter)
24. Frank Francisco (-14) (C.J. Wilson)
25. Kerry Wood (-8) (Chris Perez, Rafael Betancourt)
26. Matt Capps (-2) (John Grabow, Jesse Chavez, Sean Burnett)
27. Jason Frasor (-8) (Scott Downs, B.J. Ryan)
28. Chad Qualls (-15) (Tony Pena, Clay Zavada, Jon Rauch)
29. Mike MacDougal (Joe Beimel, Julian Tavarez)
30. Leo Nunez (-4) (Dan Meyer, Matt Lindstrom, Kiko Calero, Waco My Airplane)