This is a post for the fantasy baseball drafters who use Excel, Google Docs, or some other war room software that automatically totals a drafted team’s stats while in the middle of a draft. Or perhaps for those of you who do mock drafts or simulated drafts.

The below grid represents my projected 75% mark in each stat category across 10/12/14/15/16 team ESPN and Yahoo default roster format leagues.

These numbers should only be used directionally. Please note that each projection source projects to a different league average so your team may look great if using a ‘bullish’ source and look poor if using a ‘bearish’ source. These are based on the Steamer/Razzball projections.

While I stand behind these numbers as they are part of the foundation behind my Player Rater $ estimates, I do not use these as part of my draft. I prefer to add up the dollar values per category. Same difference I suppose but it is easier to see counting totals for ratios and it lets me fixate less on the numbers (e.g., I see $7, I know they are good…I don’t fixate on 20 SBs vs 25 SBs).

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We’ve called off the animals and what’s left standing are 74 Razzball Commenter Leagues.  That’s down from 85 in 2016.  We didn’t have VinWins creating 15 leagues all of his own this year though.  All in all, not too shabby.  If you missed the boat on joining, what took you so long?  If you’re really hankering for a league though, post below and if we get enough interest maybe we can get one last league brewing for all the procrastinators out there.  It will have to be a popular draft time (likely night, think ~9 PM EST) and it should give everyone plenty of time to join (Thursday/Friday/Saturday).  Let me know in the comments and we’ll get you hooked up.

Of our 74 RCLs, 46 of them have drafted.  Simple math tells us that we’ve got a lot of drafts going off this week.  Which means a lot more ADP data to look at.  The RCL ADP sheet has been getting lots of love.  There’s anonymous animals all over that thing from 7-10 PM every night.  I’m glad you’re all finding that useful.  We’ll be going over some more of that data today as well as some early trades that have taken place in the RCLs.  Let’s get to it!

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Grey is back from his East Coast gallivanting!  Just listen to the crazy Saturday night Grey had in NYC….  On today’s show, we chat on Grey’s NL-only Tout Wars squad, filled with mystery, intrigue, and Cody Reed – who just gave up 10 runs in his last Spring start!  We also catch up on injuries to lefties, J.D. Martinez‘s food, and Gregory Polanco waking up with a sore shoulder.  Get this guy a Tempur-Pedic!  Finally, we have Rudy join us on the show with Peter Rosenbloom and Jared Cross – two of the founders of Steamer – to talk projections systems, and how they’re formulated and tweaked based on new data sets.  I like the new unit of time we came up with!  Plus our membership subscriptions for our own special sauce Razzball tools are now live!  We’re geared for the best tools you can find for fantasy baseball, both for season-long and for DFS.  Check them out at that linkity link there!  Here’s the latest edition of the Razzball Baseball Podcast:

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True story:  I was walking through the mall in spandex shorts and a headband, strutting really.  The year was 1981.  I was perhaps the most handsome, well-groomed five-year-old the planet had seen.  Okay, a seven-year-old pretending to be a five-year-old.  Who wants to be older?  Not me, Cousin Sweatpants.  So, I’m cruising for chicks, crushing the scenario, when I see this total fox.  I stop her and ask for a name.  She says, “Jennifer Beals,” and I say, “You’re gonna be a star, kid,” then covering my mouth I say how her fame will be short-lived but how she will get some decent character work later in life.  I spotted her sex appeal two years prior to her breakout role in Flashdance.  I can always spot sex appeal.  It’s my cross to bear.  Speaking of crosses to bear, holy Jesus Harry Christ my Tout Wars team is sexy!  The league is 12-team, two-catcher, NL-Only and perhaps the most respected fantasy league in the country.  Sure, we’re still mocked by 99.9% of the world, but a solid chunk of other fantasy baseballers respect the Tout!  Anyway, here’s my Tout Wars team and some thoughts:

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Back in late February I took down the ADP for the top 300 players with the intention of later reflecting on that data. I knew it would come in handy when thinking up an idea for a future column, and my clairvoyance has been fulfilled.

I’ve always been a proponent of NFBC’s ADP because of the amount of money their leagues generally require in order to play ($125+, upwards of $5,000+ in main events). It eliminates crazy outlier picks better than your casual ESPN mock drafts, and paints a great picture for value in rotisserie leagues.

As ‘weekly lock’ are their standard format, it deviates a little bit from our typical RCL that we have on this fantastic caldron of fantasy knowledge know as Razzball, but heading into the last week of drafts, I hope this will give you a great idea of the fluctuation of players in across the league.

The time frame of the change, as you will see, is between February 28th and March 26th. I’ll break up some of our specimens based on overall ADP, as players who are going later in drafts (150+ overall) have much more room to rise and fall than a player in the top 50.

To address players who have fallen due to a temporary injury, I’ve eliminated guys like Ian Desmond, Alex Reyes, and David Dahl, in favor of taking a look at performance and playing time based fluctuations. If you desire the +/- of any other player you don’t see here, feel free to mention in the comments below and I will dig in and find it for you (as long as their in the top 500).

Keep in mind, in order for a player to fall by a given amount, that player has been drafted further above or further below what their ADP on March 26th states. This is because NFBC ADP is a rolling average. For Yoenis Cespedes to increase from 59.08 to 56.66, he would have been drafted, on average, higher than the 56.66 overall from March 26th says. Not simply the +2.42 spots my interval of change shows you!

Razzball Commenter Leagues are closing down, but there’s still a few spots left! Play against our contributors and your fellow readers for prizes. Join here!

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Image result for allais paradox

The Allais Paradox:

Gamble A: 100% chance of receiving $1 million.

Gamble B: 10% chance of receiving $5 million, 89% chance of receiving $1 million, and 1% chance of receiving nothing.

Gamble C: 11% chance of receiving $1 million, and an 89% chance of receiving nothing.

Gamble D: 10% chance of receiving $5 million, and a 90% chance of receiving nothing.

Most people would choose A over B, less money for no risk. Those same people would choose D over C, though, more money for more risk. Below is the expected value for each:

Gamble  Expected Value
A $1 million
B $1.39 million
C $110,000
D $500,000

* Formulas for the above can be found here.

Therein lies the paradox. If you are about expected value, you choose B and D, especially since the probabilities are the same.

You know what the real paradox is, though? I’m Asian, math SAT score was almost-perfect, English SAT score was ESL-esque (I was born in this country), and I get paid (not much) to write and I barely understand the Allais Paradox. No wonder my parents disowned me (They didn’t really, but I wouldn’t blame them if they did).

Damnit SON!!! What is all this mumbo jumbo and what does it have to do with Paxton and Urías?

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Chris Davis is barely a replacement player in most standard points leagues. Some might find it hard to believe that a guy that is nearly a lock for close to 40 home runs almost deserves to go undrafted, but it’s the truth. In auction leagues I love to nominate him and let people throw away their valuable auction dollars on Davis. According to my valuations, he is worth one dollar. Yes, to no surprise here are his sale prices in my last few auctions: $13, $3, $12 and $6. That should read $1, $1, $1 and $1. I am very glad it does not because that means that one team in my league now has that many less dollars to spend on players and they spent it foolishly.

Razzball Commenter Leagues are open! Play against our contributors and your fellow readers for prizes. Join here!

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These regrets don’t harken back to the day I drafted Mike Greenwell over Ryan Klesko and his gorgeous sideburns, only to waste a career year from Ray Lankford.  That was a miserable time to be Grey.  I remember not brushing crumbs from my mustache for a month, and little kids coming up to me and asking me if I were homeless.  I felt homeless!  I’ll tell you that!  No, no, these regrets are profound, but not THAT profound.  These are regrets I’m feeling for the last month of fantasy baseball.  Things I wish I did differently with my drafts or my rankings or my projections, but didn’t for one reason or another.  Anyway, here’s my biggest regrets for the 2017 fantasy baseball preseason:

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It’s Sunday, and I’m feeling a little scatterbrained this morning. With my AM coffee I’m looking to cover a wide variety of dynasty/prospect/small righty related content. Some of the low hanging fruits from the tree of prospector knowledge. With such a bountiful harvest it’s a crime not to share. There’s a lot of nothing to talk about, which is a polite way to say spring training stats. If you’re anything like me, then you wish you could press fast forward on the next week, right up until the moment the games begin. Hit play, and immerse yourself in baseball until late October. So far in 2017 I’ve given you my sleepers, my breakouts, my Top 100 Prospects, and my top prospects from every damn team’s farm system. It’s been a busy offseason, to say the least. One that never really ended or began. As good Ole Rust Cohle would say, time is a flat circle. In my case it’s a flat circle that spans 30 minor league systems, and a non-stop quest to know every player that ever played baseball. Today’s post is me just rounding out some performances, and giving you some of my takes on names I feel we’ll be discussing quite a bit in 2017. If there’s anything or anyone you’d like to discuss, then you know the drill, come with any and all Fantasy related questions in the comments.

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Everyone that reads Razzball knows me as the guy that writes about points leagues. Either that, or the dude whose posts you never read. What most don’t know is that I secretly dislike points leagues, at least traditional head-to-head leagues. I might have mentioned that at some point in some post in the past, but that’s a discussion for another day. While I focus on points leagues for Razzball, I studied the art of rotisserie baseball at a young age. I was introduced to fantasy baseball back in 1991 when I was only fourteen years old. It was supposed to be an NL-only league, but shortly before the draft the league fell apart so I took over a team in the AL-only league. My dad paid and I played. The league was all adults and me, and I somehow managed to finish in third place out of ten teams. Nowadays the only place you can find an adult league that allows boys is through NAMBLA. Do yourself a favor and do not google that acronym. Is google and official verb yet?

Razzball Commenter Leagues are open! Play against our contributors and your fellow readers for prizes. Join here!

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