“I know it was you, Alfredo, you broke my heart–because I should have picked you up yesterday. You’re nothing to me now. Not a brother, not a friend–but, I’ll admit you may be an intriguing add in fantasy baseball this week.” Michael Corleone’s words for his fantasy team are harsh but true. Reds pitcher Alfredo Simon continued his streak of success yesterday, pitching six scoreless innings versus the Cubs, allowing just six base runners and striking out three. Coming off the heels of an eight inning gem last week against Tampa, where he allowed just one run and struck out four, Alfredo now has pitched 21.0 innings, allowing just 2 ER and 13 hits, while grabbing two wins. It looks like he’ll stick in the rotation while Mat Latos is on the shelf. Simon’s sparkling 0.86 ERA is good for top 3 in the league, and the 0.81 WHIP sure is purdy. But before you go racing to the waiver wire dropping your Stephen Strasburgs or your R.A. Dickeys for this guy, just wait a second. Because I didn’t say Simon says? Got ya! I know. Bad. I’m sorry. Anyway, let’s examine if Simon says  you should grab Alfredo or not. If we look closer into the starts, it’s a small sample size but we get the sense he’s been pretty lucky so far, and not just because he’s faced the Mets, Rays and Cubs. Simon’s .194 BABIP is good for top 10 in the league. Along with a 3.14 FIP (3.90 xFIP) and an insane 94.3 LOB% we have a ton a nerdy stats that say major regression coming. Translation: Alfredo is probably gonna get sauced. Mama mia! That’s not to say that those numbers are not still very good. After moving to Cincinnati from Baltimore, Simon was awesome in relief, with a 2.76 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in two years from 2012-2013, way above his career numbers averages (3.98 ERA and 1.33 WHIP). And he’s been extremely efficient as a starter this year as his 13.4 pitches thrown per inning (roughly 3.5 per batter) shows. Doode is doing work. The 13/4 K/BB ratio is nothing special, but he is working efficiently in his starts, going deep into games. So Simon says, if you need a streamer you can grab AlFredo for his next start in Pittsburgh. He’s under 20% owned, and he’s making us an offer we can’t refuse. Ride this hot streak out for now, but if he’s ready to sleep with the fishes don’t hesitate to take him out to the middle of Lake Tahoe and take care of business.

Here’s what else happened Friday night in fantasy baseball:

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While I would love for you top just give me all your money and draft your daily team over at DraftKings, I can not in good faith just take your money with out giving you a free pen like the deaf people at the airport or mall cafeteria. So last week was my first shot at learning you good people some of my picks for Saturdays games, I did ok. I am not going to go back and see because I am like Magellan or De Soto and have the expression ever forward. We here at Razzball provide you with all the tools necessary like the Hitter-Tron and Stream-O-Nator that you will need to construct your team. We unfortunately don’t offer common sense or crocheting tips however so you are unfortunately out of luck. Over at DraftKings they have games for all comers; size, smell, and upright walking status are not discriminated against. You got the loot, they have the league. So check out their Sweet Spot contest, along with a cavalcade of other emotion daily roller coaster that the have to offer. Good luck on the days games.

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Everything comes back to your league’s settings. If steals have a decent amount of weight and you can’t punt them, then you might have to deploy a guy like Dee Gordon. In theory, it’s nice to have a team filled with guys who have power and speed, but those guys are rarely undervalued. You don’t need me to tell you that Gordon won’t continue producing a .373/.421/.510 line. If you can sell high, then by all means do so. Although the reality is that he may have been a waiver wire guy and it’s tough to get anything of value from them in a trade this early in the season. He’ll still get steals when he gets on base, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see his OBP drop 100 points and his slugging drop 200 points going forward. That can still be useful, depending on how deep your league is and how heavily steals are weighted. Anyway, here are some other guys who I expect to produce different results than they have so far this year and what it means in OBP and OPS leagues:

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I remember distinctly the day Will Clark retired. I just got home from a Winter Solstice Pageant. I was only 12 years old at the time, but my mustache was already coming in. Earlier that night, when I was singing in the pageant, a mother yelled out from the audience, “Who’s the midget with the mustache?” Then another parent yelled out, “Or is it a dwarf? I always get confused.” Another yelled, “Is that kid 40 years old? I don’t know if I want my kid around that adult.” I didn’t think my day could get worse, then, back at home, I heard that Clark retired. I was still in my autumn leaf costume, sobbing into my Pop Rocks, essentially ruining them. A devastating day all around, but things got better eventually. Soon my friends’ parents wouldn’t call the cops when I was hanging out with their kid, thinking I was a 40-something pervert. One mother even complimented me on my mustache. Maybe this was where my love of Cougars first started. What does this have to do with Wil Myers? Nothing at all. Just like his first two weeks mean nothing. It’s two weeks! Frequent Commenter, Oaktown Steve, asked the other day who would have more value this year, Wil Myers or Carlos Beltran? It’s a totally fair question. In my preseason projections, there’s essentially only 5 steals separating the two. Of course, there is something like 15 years separating them too, and I would say one is moving up and one is moving down due to age. Get a sense a lot of people are looking to bail on Myers already. That would be a mistake. He didn’t just happen to get named one of the top prospects in baseball. He’s crazy talented. He could go off still and be a first round draft pick for next year. Now is the time you buy him on the cheap, not sell him. Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

Psyche! Before we get into this week’s Buy/Sell, just wanted to announce that Rest of the Season Projections are on-site and everyone’s favorite fantasy baseball dinosaur, Buysellatops. The Buyasellatops is easy to use. When you first get to the page, Sells are listed first. To see Buys, click ROS$ minus STD$. To see Rest of Season projections, click on any player’s name — in this post or anywhere on-site. Finally, with the Rest of Season Projections, it means the Fantasy Baseball Player Rater is now functional and the Rest of the Season Player Rater. Anyway II, the Buy/Sell:

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I’m all about the win-now. This means I will rarely own a top prospect, because I’ll trade them for short term MLB value and/or I just won’t spend the dough on those guys, because I can look a bit deeper for translatable prospects that don’t have as much associated hype. Therefore, I’m not going to whine about not owning and emphasizing the obvious: Oscar Tavares, George Springer, Gregory Polanco or even Jackie Bradley Jr. Instead I’ll draft sure-thing offense so long as they’re healthy (Michael Morse and Yasmani Grandal), and then go with upside starters/or solid veterans like Marco Estrada, Alex Wood, Corey Kluber, Tyson Ross, Kyle Lohse and Tim Hudson (all were available around the same time as these prospects in deep leagues). I literally own all of these guys, and the following ESPN’ers <10% owned as of 4/14:

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So I’ve been leading with pitchers all the time. That shizz is seriously gonna get boring fast. And believe me, I’ve been married for basically 10 years so I know boring. I ain’t playin’ DraftKings to feel like all I got is top or bottom! TMI? Yeah, TMI…but I’m gonna do things a little differently because I feel like it. And because Justin Morneau is feeling it, whatever that ‘it’ is when he can’t seem to miss the ball. Morneau just finished a road trip to San Diego, aka Petco Park, aka the vast desert of homerunlessness and came away with a couple of doubles and a HR. Before that, he hit a HR in San Fran in the previous series. And now? Morneau gets to play at home against a pitcher named Jonathan Pettibone, or ‘Mr. Bonepetter’ as he’s known on his adult film sets. To put it mildly, Jonathan is ‘WHOOOEEEFFF’. That’s me spelling out the sound of throwing up. Don’t look at me strange, we all throw up differently. The Stream-O-Nator spells throwup ‘-9′. That’s his dollar value today. No this isn’t golf, negative numbers aren’t good around here. Needless to say, both I and the Hitter-Tron agree that Morneau is set up for a fine day in Denver and given his price is only $4,400 on the good ‘ole DK, it would be smart to get a least a small piece of the Rocky Mountain High that’s sure to come. Not that kind of high. Unless you’re actually in Colorado. Then it’s totally cool and legal. Wait, aren’t we still teaching D.A.R.E. in school? You so crazy, .gov. Speaking of cool and legal, before we move onto the picks for the day, I wanted to remind you of the Sweet Spot like my wife does like all the time…TMI again? Oops…anyways, sign up to DraftKings via our promo and get a free ticket. You win with said free ticket, you get a shot at working your way into said Sweet Spot for free and get to take a picture with me as I take your oversized check and run away with it down the hill like Shooter McGavin does with Happy’s jacket. But enough about my impending thievery, let’s do this. Here are the Razzball picks for the 4/18/2014 slate over on DraftKings…

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This should go down easier than Danny Salazar‘s last start, but it’s still not going to be that easy to digest. You have a Tums handy? Good, take like seven of them. Don’t worry, if they give you kidney stones, it will take your mind off of K-Zar. Something is wrong. I hypothesized that he was tipping his pitches last time. It didn’t make sense that he would strikeout more guys in four innings than anyone has ever while still getting rocked. Maybe he is, I still have no idea. I don’t have my degree from the University of Pitch Scouting, which is still in a heated lawsuit with the United Parcel Service. You should sign the online petition for the United Parcel Service to change to the acronym NBU for Nice Brown Uniforms. If an online petition can’t get something changed, what can? Member when people actually protested things and not just clicked a box on an online petition site? Those in-person protestors were silly! Any the hoo! A larger problem with K-Zar is his velocity is down. Still decent for most mortals, but he could be hiding a larger issue with his arm. The other day when he K’d ten guys in four innings, it might’ve masked a bigger problem. Yesterday’s start was a real eye-opener — 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER and only 3 Ks — is terrible. That’s not tipping pitches, that’s something is wrong. The final ruling on K-Zar is you should hold him if you can, but I don’t think the short-term is going to be pretty. Obviously, you can’t start him next time out or until he throws a decent start. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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So, everyone can give a complete exhale that two save-category standard bearers were not shut down with shoulder problems. Craig Kimbrel and Koji Uehara both threw bullpens yesterday, and are all systems go for the rest of the week.  Not like any of you have them, because we don’t and shouldn’t overpay for saves on draft day.  So if either of these guys fell to ya, good on ya and relax, and stop checking the waiver wire for half a tick.  Kimbrel is the tits, regardless of setbacks, his numbers say so, and you should walk around telling people the such as well.  Kenley is nice, has all the check marks: winning team, K’s, and the large drink to boot.  I just can’t, with good faith, de-commit from Kimbrel unless he actually hits the DL.  So with the sighs of relief I hear, let’s touch on some more of this weeks hap’s and slaps.  Shall we?

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“I’ve had a vision so great, as it came to me I wept.”

Greetings! Tis I, Tehol Beddict, and last night I witnessed Stephen Strasburg grasping his ankles, shutting his eyelids, gritting his teeth, and receiving the kind of punishment I haven’t seen or thought possible since Tupac verbally accosted the Notorious B.I.G. and his entire crew back in 95. Witnessing this made me think of the film Waterworld. Why you ask? I’m not 100 percent positive, but it’s probably the way superstar, Kevin Costner, was slammed by critics for his dry, mediocre performance in the same fashion I continuously bash Strasburg for his ineptitude on the mound. This brought on a vision of intertwining Strasburg and Waterworld, into another epic fantasy baseball post, and when the vision hit me, I wept tears of joy.

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I’m sitting here with the 80′s classic Gung Ho on the TV. Directed by Ron Howard and starring Michael Keaton and Long Duck Dong, it tells the story of how a man tries to save a town by bringing in a Japanese car company to fill an empty car factory. In hindsight what great foreshadowing for the towns in the rust belt that became abandoned by the loss of all the manufacturing jobs. Filled with lots of people you might recognize, like George Wendt and John Turturo, it pulls at the heart strings of my childhood and all the forgotten movies we would watch. Now what does this have to do today’s DraftKings article. Absolutely nothing! I’m just sharing what I’m watching on TV……I’m kidding it has lots to do with today’s daily fantasy. In daily fantasy we have to be key on the match-ups and the value one guy has because he destroys a certain pitcher or team. Yunel Escobar is that guy for me today. Like this movie, we need to take a risk on the little guy when the stars align and use hope as a tool……and some numbers crunching helps too. He has 2HR’s, 10 RBI’s, 4 doubles, 3 BB’s and a .306 BA lifetime vs. CC Sabathia. Couple that with a small price tag and you have what I like to call my blue light special. I’m rolling him out there even if the Hitter-Tron is farting in his general direction. Someone put his dipstick back in! Given that the Stream-O-Nator isn’t that hot on CC, though, I do think there’s room for this to work.

For those of you still new to this daily fantasy thing you really need to get in on this. I don’t always have time to be on the computer throughout the day but I can find a little time in the morning to get a line-up and take on 5,000 other players for a chance to win some sweet cash. If you sign up you can play the free games until you get the hang of it. You can also play H2H against each other or me if you would like to. My handle on there is J-FOH. Now get over to DraftKings and sign up already and while you’re at it, try your hand at the Sweet Spot. This might be one of the few times in life that you are going after a sweet spot that’s not on your wife and she will not only not mind, but be happy about it. Ok, on with the picks.

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