Fantasy Baseball Advice

Orlando Hudson to the Twins.  Anyone ever wonder about how Disneyland and Disney World are both in an Orange County in two different states?  Weird, right?  Yeah, deep thoughts with Grey Albright.  So Orlando Hudson goes to the Twins and retains the same value he’s had with every other team.  You can set your watch to “Blah” and Hudson will get there every time.  He’s around the same value as Crapolanco.  He’ll slide into the two hole in the lineup and slash around 85/10/65/.290/10.  As they say, a better real baseball move.  And by “they,” I mean whoever says that.  The best part of signing Hudson is that Twins fans can say see-ya to Casilla as a starter at 2B and punt Punto to under 200 plate appearances.  Anyway, here’s some more signings and goings-on for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Orlando Cabrera — To the Reds.  Orlando Cabrera is slightly more exciting than Hudson, but really it couldn’t have been more yawnstipating.  O-Cab brings a bit more speed potential with a slightly lower average.  Think 80/10/75/.275/15.  Not a bad name to look at late at MI, but you’ll definitely grow bored of him sometime in April.

Erik Bedard – Resigns with the M’s.  Solid for about three months of the six month season.  Unfortunately, no one has any idea when those three months will come.

Kevin Gregg – Signed on with the Blue Jays.  <sarcasm>When your team will battle for last place in the toughest division and you have guys that are capable of being the closer, why not sign a mediocre closer?</sarcasm> I imagine this signing is like what my friend we call, Cheap Bastard, does.  (You know, Fat Bastard.  Well, my friend’s cheap.)  He doesn’t really need a six gallons of chicken broth from Costco, but it’s on sale.  Everyone’s got a friend like this, or you are this person.  I figure the Jays will just trade Gregg away at the trading deadline.  Gregg’s not a terrible closer like his rap sheet may indicate.  He was a bit unlucky last year with homers allowed.  He was an unnecessary purchase for the Jays, but he’s no worse than most eh closers.  Around a 4 ERA, around a 1.30 WHIP and decent Ks — about 8 K/9, which puts him in the 60 K range on the year.  If he’s getting saves, he’s worth owning.  SAGNOF!  I think he will be the closer for at least the first part of the year.

Ryan Garko – Signed with the Mariners.  Again, another better in real baseball type move.  He’ll hurt Casey Kotchman’s playing time, but, as we all know, Kotchman was hurting his own playing time.

Adam Kennedy – Signs with the Nats and soils my Ian Desmond sleeper post.  Jim Riggleman said Ian Desmond could play all three outfield positions, shortstop and second base.  Not an ideal situation.  Will have to see what playing time is like for Desmond now.  If he can get 400 ABs, he’ll still have value, just not nearly as much.  I haven’t had such harsh feelings for a Kennedy since the early 90’s VJ.

With the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for every position done, we turn our lazy eye towards the top 100 for 2010 fantasy baseball.  These rankings may as well been co-written by Kim Jong-il because, if those 2010 fantasy baseball rankings were the bomb, this shizz is nu-cu-lar.  None of this top 100 for 2010 fantasy baseball is meant to surprise.  It’s just taking my positional rankings and putting guys in The Big Picture.  Obviously at a hundred players, some guys just didn’t make it.  About 200 or so, to be inexact.  It’s okay, there will be a top 300 too.  Shortly, Sloth, you’ll have your Baby Ruth.  Not to get all biblical on you, but this is the gospel.  Print it out and take it to Mt. Sinai and it will say, “Win your 2010 fantasy baseball league, young premature balding man.”  Projections were done by me and a crack team of 100 monkeys fighting amongst themselves because there were only 99 typewriters.  Somebody buy Ling-Ling his own typewriter!  To help with your drafting, there’s also a list of players with multiple position eligibility along with the Point Shares.  Anyway, here’s the top 100 for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1. Albert Pujols – I’m man enough to admit I love Poo-Holes.  2010 Projections:  110/40/120/.337/10

2. Hanley Ramirez – Ready to have your mind blown?  Imagine if the Red Sox didn’t trade Hanley to the Marlins.  2010 Projections:  100/25/110/.320/25

3. Chase Utley – Gets the edge on A-Rod for his position and pomade.  2010 Projections:  110/32/105/.300/15

4. Alex Rodriguez – Jeter’s got the market cornered on hot Latinas while A-Rod’s rocking lame ass white girls, but, unfortunately, I can’t hold that against him for fantasy.  2010 Projections:  110/36/120/.310/15

5. Ryan Braun – If he can do what I think he’s capable of, he could be number one for 2011.  2010 Projections:  110/37/120/.305/17

6. Mark Teixeira – Like LL, Tex just keeps doing and doing and doing it well.  2010 Projections:  100/37/120/.305

7. Miguel Cabrera – He gives me the vibe he doesn’t care, but maturity does weird things to people.  Shoot, I used to shave my head, sag my Karl Kanis and wear purple sneakers.  If Cabrera can put forth 100%, he can be a force.  2010 Projections:  105/35/115/.320/3

8. Matt Kemp – Man, I’m loving these 5-8 picks.  Can you dig it?  I knew you could.  2010 Projections:  100/30/110/.305/32

9. Prince Fielder – If 40 homers is the key, then Fielder’s a lock.  2010 Projections: 100/42/115/.285

10. Ryan Howard – Howard = Fielder + 5 homers – .010 on average.  2010 Projections:  105/47/140/.275

11. Evan Longoria – I had a premonition that Longoria could steal 20 bases in 2010.  Might’ve been indigestion.  2010 Projections:  100/36/115/.280/10

12. Tim Lincecum – From the files of Coincidences That Don’t Really Mean Anything, I ranked him 12th last year too.  2010 Projections:  18-5/2.70/1.00/250

13. David Wright – I don’t buy that Wright, Reyes or Johan are done.  If you were to jump out of a DeLorean and say to me you’re from the future and the Mets are in the playoffs, it wouldn’t shock me.  I’d assume they traded for three starters in July.  2010 Projections:  100/25/110/.300/17

14. Matt Holliday – He’s a great average, solid power and moderate steal contributor.  In fantasy, that gets you 14th.  2010 Projections:  105/28/115/.320/15

15. Ian Kinsler – If he stays healthy again and has a lucky year for average, he can give you a season better than Utley.  But those are two decent-sized ifs.  2010 Projections:  110/29/80/.270/34

16. Troy Tulowitzki – As you can see from my projections — go ahead, look, this’ll be here — I think his steals come down from last year.  2010 Projections:  95/35/105/.280/12

17. Grady Sizemore – When I say bounce… You say back.  Bounce… Back…  Bounce… Back… Pounce… Back– I said pounce, got ya.  2010 Projections:  110/27/80/.270/25

18. Jose Reyes – See Wright, David.  Or about 3 and a half inches above.  2010 Projections:  115/13/65/.285/50

19. Carl Crawford – I’ll be honest, I considered dropping Crawford a little further down, but the near-15 homers gets him ranked here.  2010 Projections: 110/14/65/.290/50

20. Adrian Gonzalez – Mind blowing time again.  Imagine Hanley and Adrian Gonzalez on the Red Sox.  2010 Projections:  90/38/100/.280

21. Jimmy Rollins – This is the last shortstop for a while.  Why?  Cause shortstops suck.  You’re best to not look at shortstops again until Andrus.  2010 Projections:  110/20/65/.275/28

22. Justin Morneau – I’m kinda all right on Morneau this year.  I’m not expecting 35 homers or any steals, but around 30/100/.290 is solid.  2010 Projections:  95/32/110/.290

23. Jacoby Ellsbury – Same that goes for Crawford.  Probably won’t own Ellsbury but the boy has speed and some slight power.  2010 Projections:  105/10/65/.300/60

24. Justin Upton – I like J-Upside this year, but, then again, everyone does.  2010 Projections:  80/27/95/.290/20

25. Felix Hernandez – Love, love, love F-Her.  Think he has multiple Cy Youngs in his arm.  But I probably won’t own him either.  Before I get a ton of comments about why would I rank someone somewhere and then say I wouldn’t own them.  I can’t own everyone.  It’s just impossible.  For instance, with my first two picks, I take Braun and Reyes, I’ll need a first baseman.  If I take Hanley and A-Gon, I’ll need an outfielder.  If I take A-Rod and Sizemore, I’ll need a first baseman.  It’s just the way I assemble a team.  I’m not going to draft a starter third UNLESS — yes, Mr. Caps, that’s for emphasis — Lincecum’s still around in the third round then I won’t be able to turn that down.  But that doesn’t mean F-Her isn’t ranked here.  If I were to only do the guys I would actually own, this top 100 may only be 20 guys long.  Also, technically I would own F-Her if he were around after I drafted, say, Braun, Reyes and Votto.  But he won’t be.  2010 Projections:  18-6/3.00/1.10/220

26. Zack Greinke – More or less the same gist as F-Her.  2010 Projections:  14-5/3.05/1.10/225

27. Roy Halladay – Halladay could easily be the top rated starter at the end of the year.  He’s not listed first because the guys above beat him in Ks and age.  2010 Projections:  17-8/3.02/1.14/185

28. Joe Mauer – He’s ranked 28th because I know he’ll be gone before he gets to here.  Consider it a preemptive strike.  2010 Projections:  100/20/85/.330/3

29. Ryan Zimmerman – I see Zimmerman moving into the 2nd round for 2011.  2010 Projections:  105/30/110/.295/5

30. Kevin Youkilis – When a player gets to 30 years old and has failed to reach 30 homers, it’s pretty safe to say he’s probably not getting there.  The Greek God of 27 Homers and a Near-.300 Average.  2010 Projections:  95/27/105/.295/5

31. CC Sabathia – I had this wild dream the other day.  I was watching a Yankee game where CC was on the mound but instead of CC it was Prop Joe.  2010 Projections:  20-10/3.45/1.17/200

32. Mark Reynolds – Flip over your your pocket-sized Chinese food take out calender, 2009 was the Year of the Mini Donkey, not 2010.  2010 Projections:  85/35/95/.250/12

33. Joey Votto – If you don’t know how I feel about Votto at this point, you haven’t been reading the site.  2010 Projections:  90/30/105/.305/7

34. Curtis Granderson – His average will come up and the homers will fly in the Boogie Down.  2010 Projections:  110/30/80/.270/20

35. Jayson Werth – In any different lineup or park, I’d be worried about Werth ranked this high.  Plus, he’s a 5 time Intercontinental Champion.  2010 Projections:  85/30/100/.270/18

36. B.J. Upton – Don’t believe last year’s average.  2010 Projections:  90/14/65/.275/40

37. Brandon Phillips – Steady contributor at a weak position.  2010 Projections:  80/22/95/.275/22

38. Brian Roberts – I’m worried at some point Roberts is going to get old.  He’ll be 32 in twenty-ten.  Might happen.  2010 Projections:  105/13/75/.285/30

39. Dustin Pedroia – Member the battles I fought last year for telling people Pedroia wasn’t a 1st or 2nd round pick?  Yeah, those people went into the shadows like Orson Welles in The Third Man.  2010 Projections:  110/15/70/.305/15

40. Robinson Cano – Entering the magical 27 year old season and his high average is not a trick.  (A trick is something a whore does for money.)  2010 Projections:  90/27/100/.315/5

41. Brian McCann – I probably won’t own McCann outside of two catcher leagues, but I am more pro-McCann than most ‘perts.  2010 Projections:  80/28/105/.295/3

42. Victor Martinez – V-Mart at first base is kinda eh.  2010 Projections:  85/25/110/.300

43. Ichiro Suzuki – Great average, but I don’t pay for average.  2010 Projections:  100/10/55/.330/25

44. Jason Bay – I don’t think Metco kills a player’s value, but it’s definitely not Fenway.  2010 Projections:  85/28/105/.270/10

45. Johan Santana – I don’t think Metco makes a pitcher’s value, but it’s Johan.  Falling K-rate, schmalling K-rate.  2010 Projections:  18-7/3.15/1.18/200

46. Adam Lind – I understand people not being crazy for Lind because of his position, but don’t be not crazy for him because you think his power is fluky.  Yes, that was a triple negative.  Those are okay.  2010 Projections:  85/35/110/.300/2

47. Josh Hamilton – Hey, it’s my old whipping boy.  I like him this year.  See, it wasn’t personal.  2010 Projections: 85/28/100/.275/7

48. Andre Ethier – I’m basically stocking my outfield with these rankings.  Say what you want about depth, but it’s not that deep when every team needs 5 of them.  2010 Projections:  80/24/95/.285/7

49. Derek Jeter – Last year’s slight boost in power makes sense, but the huge increase in speed won’t carry over.  2010 Projections:  110/16/70/.315/20

50. Justin Verlander – Just don’t abandon ship when he starts the season poorly.  2010 Projections:  17-11/3.25/1.20/230

51. Dan Haren – Abandon ship when the clock strikes July.  2010 Projections:  16-10/3.30/1.15/200

52. Jon Lester – If it means taking a starter in the 5th round, so be it.  But I’m looking to own Lester on at least one team in 2010.  2010 Projections:  17-7/3.35/1.20/215

53. Adam Wainwright – Hmm… Where are the top starters?  This seems off.  2010 Projections:   16-8/3.30/1.18/190

54. Carlos Quentin – Charlie Quentin is talented, the health is the issue.  2010 Projections:  80/28/95/.275/5

55. Nelson Cruz – His projections say he should be above even Hamilton and Ethier but I have my trepidations that Cruz could revert to being the guy that couldn’t get out of the minors.  Unlike my other trepidations, this one feels less warranted.  2010 Projections:  80/32/95/.275/15

56. Adam Jones – Why is Adam Jones being drafted after players like Manny?  Point your right foot thumbkin up and point your left foot thumbkin down.  Right is Jones, left is Manny.  2010 Projections:  95/27/85/.280/15

57. Nick Markakis – I do think Markakis is talented, but I’d sure like to see a year of 25+ homers before drafting him as my first outfielder.  Shoot, I’d take just 25 homers.  2010 Projections:  100/24/100/.300/7

58. Pablo Sandoval – I’m probably lower on Sandoval than most, but I don’t think 25 homers was a jumping off point but more of a ceiling.  2010 Projections:  80/24/95/.315/4

59. Aaron Hill – I don’t buy 2009 at all, so I’m not touching him where lots of ‘perts are.  2010 Projections:  85/24/80/.280/5

60. Kendry Morales – If he’s 26 years old, I’ll shave the ’stache.  2010 Projections:  80/28/100/.285/3

61. Lance Berkman – Unlike beef, going from prime to aged isn’t great.  2010 Projections:  80/25/95/.295/7

62. Adam Dunn – 40, 40, 40, 40, 40, 38… Even if it’s 36 in 2010, he’s still worth the average.  2010 Projections:  80/40/100/.250

63. Carlos Pena – Led the AL in homers and missed the last month of the season.  2010 Projections:  95/37/100/.250

64. Shin-Soo Choo – Throw Choo, Abreu, Victorino and Hunter into a big, over-sized hat and pick out one for your team.  They’re all relatively the same.  More speed here, less average there.  More pop here, less speed there.  2010 Projections:  90/18/100/.285/20

65. Bobby Abreu – How is he fast and Miguel Cabrera slow when they both have the same body type?  2010 Projections:  95/15/100/.300/20

66. Shane Victorino – Now that Crapolanco shoved him down the order, I anticipate yelling at the TV screen, “Stop bunting over Victorino!”  2010 Projections:  75/12/85/.290/30

67. Torii Hunter – He hasn’t stolen more than 20 bases in a season since 2004.  Cust kayin’.  cus2010 Projections:  75/23/85/.275/17

68. Carlos Lee – Could be more valuable than Lind, but where’s the excitement in that?  2010 Projections:  65/27/100/.300/5

69. Ben Zobrist – With Zobrist, Jacoby Ellsbury and Zimmerman, it’s a renaissance for players whose names sound Jewish but are not.  2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.270/12

70. Chone Figgins – If you have a team where your 2nd baseman and shortstop  have pop — think Uggla and Tulo — I could see Figgins.  But the dearth of power at 3rd could kill your entire team.  I opt for steals in the latter rounds at MI.  Think Everth Cabrera.  2010 Projections:  105/5/55/.295/40

71. Cole Hamels – He paid last year for being overworked in 2008.  This year he makes up for it.  2010 Projections:  16-10/3.45/1.15/185

72. Josh Johnson – Last year, he had a sub-3 ERA until August 20th.  2010 Projections:  14-6/3.35/1.22/175

73. Cliff Lee – The Adverb is about as safe as they come, but he gets ranked here because he’s not a huge strikeout threat.  2010 Projections:  15-8/3.40/1.22/160

74. Ubaldo Jimenez – Takes nads the size of beach balls to draft a Rockies pitcher as your first pitcher off the board.  Also takes nads to win a fantasy baseball championship.  Or at least that’s what I keep telling myself.  2010 Projections:  15-9/3.50/1.27/200

75. Derrek Lee – Lee’s not a 35 homer hitter like last year.  He’s a 24 to 27 homer hitter.  My apologies to Cubs fans, Derrek Lee’s family and anyone else I might have hurt with my words.  2010 Projections:  90/25/100/.295/3

76. Ricky Nolasco – Love the K/BB and badass name.  2010 Projections:  15-7/3.55/1.20/200

77. Josh Beckett – What can be said about Red State Jeter that hasn’t already been said?  Sounds like a rhetorical, but really what?  2010 Projections:  16-10/3.70/1.22/195

78. Clayton Kershaw – I took down my Ron LeFlore door poster and put up Clayton Kershaw.  2010 Projections:  12-4/3.20/1.22/200

79. Denard Span – Probably the least exciting name on the top 100 (though Uggla’s a close second).  Span’s numbers aren’t that far off from Victorino.  Call him Feign Victorino.  I might need to do a Sleeper post about Denard Dawg.  That’ll draw some eyeballs. /sarcasm  2010 Projections:  100/10/70/.300/22

80. Alfonso Soriano – Free swingers don’t age well.  Speedsters with leg problems don’t run much.  Still 20/10 seems to be about his floor.  There’s value in that.  2010 Projections:  70/25/85/.270/12

81. Alex Rios – Rios is like buying a Chia Pet.  You’re excited when you buy it.  Seems like a fun idea.  Then you get home, never water it and it goes 8-for-75.  2010 Projections:  85/19/70/.275/22

82. Chris Carpenter – As I mentioned in the top 20 starters, I’m avoiding Carp, Yovani and Peavy.  Ergo, I switched the order in this top 100.  Ergo, Yovani and Peavy didn’t even make the top 100.  Ergo, I have no idea if I’m using ergo correctly.  2010 Projections:  14-7/3.10/1.05/135

83. Manny Ramirez – I’m not going to be able to get Manny this late and that’s by design.  2010 Projections:  85/28/100/.300

84. Matt Wieters – Dreamy without the Brady Anderson sideburns.  2010 Projections:  70/18/85/.305

85. Gordon Beckham – I’m typing this with my toes as I do sit-ups.  That’s how much I like Beckham.  2010 Projections:  85/18/63/.260/14

86. Raul Ibanez – Sorta in the same boat as Werth, but older.  I.e., if Ibanez were on a different team in a different lineup, I’d have no problem lowering him.  Hitting in Citizens Bank behind Rollins, Polanco, Utley, Howard and Werth is not a bad place to be.  2010 Projections:  85/27/100/.270/3

87. Carlos Beltran – I don’t feel comfortable with this ranking and could see skipping right over Beltran if I were drafting in early March.  I need to know more about his condition.  2010 Projections:  70/20/80/.280/12

88. Jason Bartlett – If you haven’t seen Charlie Bartlett, I’d avoid it.  And Jason Bartlett.  2010 Projections:  95/7/50/.285/27

89. Joe Nathan – There’s no way I’m getting one of these closers this late in a draft.  That’s all right, cause I don’t want them. Continued thought in Papelbon’s blurb.  2010 Projections:  4-2/1.95/.95/80, 45 saves

90. Jonathan Papelbon – But as more and more fantasy baseballers (<–my Mom’s term) become better informed, closers are starting to fall lower and lower.  Continued thought in Rivera’s blurb.  2010 Projections:  2-1/2.05/1.00/75, 45 saves

91. Mariano Rivera – If this trend continues then I may have to tell people to start drafting closers because at a certain point there’s value with them.  Continued thought in Broxton’s blurb.  2010 Projections: 4-1/2.15/1.00/70, 42 saves

92. Jonathan Broxton – Hmm… No, that’s about all I wanted to say about that.  2010 Projections: 5-4/2.75/1.05/100, 40 saves

93. Michael Young – Old is as Young does.  2010 Projections:  75/14/90/.315/10

94. Aramis Ramirez – Kinda wanted to drop Aramis out of the top 100, but his position saves him.  2010 Projections:  75/25/95/.290

95. Dan Uggla – According to Uggla, Hanley doesn’t give it his all.  Uggla should see if he can have some of whatever it is Hanley is holding back.  2010 Projections:  90/32/100/.250/3

96. Wandy Rodriguez – I’ve said this before so skip ahead if you’ve already heard this from me… Then again you might not know what I’m going to say until I say it… Anyhoo!  Weird how some people break out and no one believes it while others break out and they shoot up the rankings.  Wandy was solid last year; his only concern is health.  If healthy, he’s fine.  2010 Projections:  13-11/3.55/1.27/190

97. Chad Billingsley – Same boat as Hamels with less WHIP potential.  2010 Projections:  16-8/3.50/1.32/190

98. Heath Bell – First closer I could see myself owning.  2010 Projections: 2-3/2.85/1.10/75, 40 saves

99. Billy Butler -  Upside and luscious moobs.  2010 Projections:  85/25/100/.295

100. Ian Stewart – I wanted to end the top 100 with Stewart cause I’m crushing hard.  To read more about him, go directly to my Ian Stewart fantasy.  If you see wavy lines like in a dream sequence, it’s completely normal.  2010 Projections:  85/29/100/.260/10

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Giants Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of McCovey Chronicles.

1) With the resigning of the largest Flying Molina Brother, Buster Posey doesn’t seem to have much of a chance to break camp with the club.  Do we see him in 2010 at all?  What do you expect of him?

If the Giants are in contention, and Molina is healthy, there’s no way Posey will start more than two or three game in the second half. Bruce Bochy really believes that inexperienced catchers are death to a team’s chances of winning. Starting Posey over someone who is familiar with the staff would be as negligent as starting only two outfielders.

But if the Giants are out of the race, and if Posey is doing well, he’ll probably start quite a few games down the stretch.

2) I’m not that optimistic on Nate Schierholtz.  Make me a believer.

It’s hard to be optimistic about a guy who has swung at pitches that have hit him — again, that’s pitch*es*, plural — but the projection systems like him well enough. PECOTA, CHONE, Bill James, ZiPS…they all seem to think he’ll be an average hitter. His minor league numbers are decent enough (.308/.355/.516), and he’s not a defensive liability at all, so he’ll get a chance.

If he ever controls the strike zone at all, he’ll be a nice player. You could write that, though, about 3,121 different players.

3)  I am optimistic about Jonathan Sanchez.  Give me your boldest prediction for Sanchez this year.

Boldest? Well, if you want to get nuts, ZiPS lists his comparable pitchers by age as Mark Langston, Sandy Koufax, and Randy Johnson — all LHP with huge K-rates who suddenly morphed into something fantastic during their mid-20s. That’s bold. In my wildest bouts of optimism, I’ll say 200 IP, 230 K, 90 BB, 3.30 ERA. I don’t think he’ll make it to 200 IP, though. He’s too wild, and I’m not sure how he’d hold up over that workload.

His ability to miss bats is pretty rare, though.

4) With the signing of 30-somethings like Molina, DeRosa, Huff, Rowand, and Renteria, do you think Sabean considers this a “youth movement?”  C’mon, bring back Vizquel and Randy Johnson.  Trade for Moyer.  What’s Julio Franco up to?

I think his commitment to the farm system came in the last two years, and you really need four or so to bear a lot of fruit. Other than Posey and Sandoval, the best of the Giants’ system aren’t above A-ball yet, so I can’t fault the guy for trying to build a win-now team without long-term contracts or blockbuster trades. Maybe the Giants could have been set for a longer period of time with a young guy like J.J. Hardy; maybe that would have cost Jonathan Sanchez. Maybe the Marlins were asking for Thomas Neal in exchange for Dan Uggla.

That said, I’m not wild about the stopgaps he did pick up. Huff is a clank-mitt, DeRosa is good but old, Molina is a horrid offensive player when you consider everything but home runs, and none of them are substantial improvements over the incumbents.  Sabean basically spent $18M this offseason for his version of cost certainty. If all of those guys fall flat on their faces, Sabean can say, jeez, how was I supposed to guess these proven players were going to disappoint? This is preferable to trying to explain how unproven players didn’t perform in his mind, and he thinks the season-ticket holders agree. Who knows? Maybe he has a point.

5) With Pablo Sandoval on a strict conditioning program this offseason, what kinds of things can we expect from him this summer?  A) Changes nickname to Kung Fu Hustle.  B) After a game winning homer, he gets a salad smashed into his face.  C) When he hits one out, less instances where announcers scream ‘Rerun’ instead of ‘Home Run.’

I think he’ll still be a little spherical, but hopefully he’ll be able to repeat his 2009 performance for years to come. I don’t think he’d mind the salad as long as it was followed by four more courses.

Dogging Aramis Ramirez as someone who’s overrated in 2010 fantasy baseball seems odd.  He was hurt last year and that was coming off two years when he was just a’ight.  And just a’ight is several levels removed from a’ight a’ight.  Just a’ight is not even the same as just a’ight.  On the scale of a’ight, there’s a’ight a’ight, a’ight, pretty a’ight, just a’ight.  Not to mention, we’re talking about a’ight here.  We’re not talking about him on the scale of totes crazy.  He hasn’t been totes crazy since 2006.  Back then, I could see throwing on some Aramis.  That shizz was Spanish Fly.  In 2006, he threw up a line of 93/38/119/.291/2.  Nice, next time I see 2005 I’ll tell him to keep an eye out for that.  This year I have Aramis down for 75/25/95/.290.  Adrian Beltre looks at those numbers and shrugs.  Don’t trust me and my mustache?  Bill James has him down for 76/26/97/.292; CHONE has 67/22/84/.289; Marcel has 59/18/72/.290.  Points Shares has him at 122th, earning -.26 points.  Sweet, throw him in a pot with some bell peppers and cumin and you have crap.

I know what a lot of you are thinking.  What the eff does totes crazy mean? Actually, I thought you were thinking Aramis will beat my projections this year because it’s a contract year.  Ah, yes.  The contract year theory.  For those not in the know, the contract year theory is when someone’s production peaks the year they are about to enter free agency, allowing them to cash in.  The first known example of the contract year theory was when Noah built the ark before signing a lifetime contract that produced nothing except odd texts about animal fornication.  It didn’t catch on in baseball for many years later.  In 1897, the Cleveland Spiders management gave a $50 raise to Sparky Anklebiter after a massive 3 HR season only to see him drop to 0 HRs the next year.  I wish someone would flip the script on players who play well in their contract year.  I’d love to hear a negotiation go something like this, “For you to be so much better in your contract year, it means you were sandbagging it for the previous three years.  Yeah, we want someone who sandbags it.  We’re going to sign Jack Wilson instead.  He throws well.”  Okay, now for actual examples of contract year players from last year:  Beltre (8 homers and crizzap), Rick Ankiel (lots of strikeouts, ugly bout with an outfield wall), Erik Bedard (usual injury shizz), Khalil Greene (ended up in the psyche ward), Rich Harden (see Bedard), Brett Myers (bunch of hits off him, some thrown at his wife) and Xavier Nady (season ended April 14th).  Yay, contract year theory.  That shizz is foolproof.

Aramis Ramirez is currently being drafted on average around 60th.  That’s about 3 rounds too early.  He’s overrated.  Grey out.

Have to go through a lot other ‘perts’ turd nuggets to find some kernels of truth, right?  So I took a looksie at ESPN’s mock draft.  These guys (and maybe girls, cause I don’t even recognize some names — Becquey?  Is that the phonetic pronunciation of the Brooklyn-Queens Expressway’s abbreviation, BQE?  No idea.) make their living by doling out fantasy baseball advice, but, as Tim Gunn would say, the problem is they’ve been in the monkey house too long.  Here’s Gunn’s explanation, “When you first walk into the monkey house at the zoo, what do you do?  You cover your nose and think, “This place stinks!” After some time, you’ve adjusted a bit, “Well, I guess this isn’t so bad.”  Then later, you don’t even notice the smell.”  ESPN builds a bunker, doles out advice but has no idea what the stench is like.  To get poetic on you, they think their feces smells like Reese’s Pieces.

In that mock, they drafted Ian Stewart 163rd overall.  Wow, Stewart has an ADP of 120 at Mock Draft Central so that’s awesome value!  The only hitch is, there’s no way anyone’s getting Stewart that late in a draft if they draft with anyone but those ESPN readers who are also in the monkey house.  The monkeys at ESPN don’t even mention Stewart was good value at 163.  You know why?  Because they have no idea.  They don’t look at anything besides what’s written at ESPN.  It’s like Hurley from Lost doling out fantasy advice.  Jack’s doing surgery, Locke’s seeing shizz and The BQE is taking Ian Stewart 163rd overall.  Honestly, I’m not even sure if they have an internet connection in Bristol.  So this look at the monkeys’ mock draft may be constructive for those of you who are playing against other monkeys, but, in reality, we’re just mocking them.  Anyway, here’s some head scratchers from ESPN’s 2010 fantasy baseball mock draft:

Carl Crawford – 7th overall. Ha!  Seriously, I don’t even know what to say about this.  Michael Bourn is that different at around pick 100?  The saving grace to this pick is that it was made by Nate Ravitz, who, I believe, is the neighbor in Bewitched.  Could be wrong.

Joe Mauer – 14th overall.  Bewitched neighbor grabbed him too.  So with Mauer and Crawford he’s looking at about 35 homers combined for his first two picks.  Guess he’s punting power.  Yeah, he just lost.  Thanks for playing.

Ryan Howard – 18th overall.  This is the last player I’m looking at that was taken way later than they will normally go. (Kinsler at 21?!  Wait, did they do this mock draft in 2007 and forget to post it?)  Howard is a great pick at 18.  Again, ain’t happening in the real world, so I’m done looking at value picks in this draft.

Derek Jeter – 25th overall.  I actually like Tristan Cockcroft (who is a Yankee fan and maybe why he made this pick), but Jeter at 25th overall is just silly.  Maybe Cockcroft is hoping for a wedding invite.  Not sure; let’s not dwell.

Javier Vazquez – 61st overall.  That’s around where his ADP is,  but I have him ranked around 135th overall.  I might need to do an overrated post on him.

Yovani Gallardo – 69th overall.  The BQE goes for YoGa about 40 spots before he should, but not nearly as bad as…

Brandon Webb – 98th overall.  They are totally reprinting a 2007 draft just to see if anyone will notice.  Very sneaky.

James Shields – 152nd overall.  Not a pick I would make, but this isn’t so much about the time Shields was drafted.  The real knee to the balls is in the comments where they wrote, “Becquey takes James Shields with pick No. 152, and many lament that Shields is off the board.”  Why? Because of his mediocre K-rate?  Is it his increasing walk rate?  Is it his inability to pitch in away games?  Is it his division?  Are they using a new definition of lament?  Seriously, I have to stop before I get an aneurysm.