Billy Butler burned his fanboys last year, after a strong campaign in 2012.  I know everyone around here lovingly (or maybe bitterly) calls him “Moobs”, but that probably hurts his feelings… I bet that’s why he started out so slow this year.

I am tweaking the categories a bit this time, because this methodology is still a work in progress.  Here are some quick notes on my patent-pending Jer-o-matic (not geriatric…but similar) system:

  1. For the injury risk category, a higher score means a player is less likely to miss time
  2. For the production category, a score of 50% means repeating last year’s production
    1. Scores about 50% are better than the previous year
    2. Scores below 50% are worse than the previous year
  3. A total score of 10 out of 20 is considered repeating last year’s performance
    1. Scores about this are better than the previous year
    2. Scores below this are worse than the previous year
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So many times the so-called experts give you the names and the numbers, but you never really know how the ‘perts are doing in their DFS play. Well, my unkempt Razzballers, you’re humble-but-nonetheless-handsome Guru will share with you my results all season long. Will my winnings enable me to spend the winter in Cancun or will I go bust and be left turbanless and living under the bridge? We shall see. So far we’re looking at sand and sunshine. I’ve been in the money in 45 of 65 DraftKings contests. I’ll admit I don’t bet big. (A good tip: never wager more than 10% of your bankroll in any given day.) I also play mainly 50-50s/double-ups and head-to-heads where the odds of cashing are much better. It’s a good way to build a bankroll in the early going. I also use a couple different philosophies when playing DFS. 1) Ace and stack philosophy: One or two teams featuring the days best pitcher and a stack of players from teams that’ll score a lot. I used Jose Fernandez and a stack of Tigers last night. It cashed. 2) Stream-a-tron philosophy: I use Razzball’s Stream-o-nator and Hitter-tron to construct a team consisting of the two best pitchers along with hitters the ‘tron projects to produce that also fit under my budget. This may not win a tourney, but it cashes out in 50/50’s at a pretty good rate. Yesterday the Stream and the ‘tron liked David Price and Hyun-Jin Ryu along with Buster Posey, Miguel Cabrera and Hunter Pence. Not sure how this worked, but as of this writing I’m 27th out of 140 players. That’s one step closer to umbrella drinks and me showing off my tan lines.

With the rambling out of the way, don’t forget to join the DraftKings Sweet Spot challenge and we could frolic on the beach together with our thongs filled with $400,000 in cash. If you’re new to the game, keep in mind DraftKings virgins get a free $2 ticket.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

The H is O! Oh, no, Jose Fernandez has me so jazzed, I need to bust some rhymes. I came in the door, I said it before. I never let a top starter magnetize me no more, but watching Fernandez yesterday is biting me, fighting me, inviting me to want a number one starter just this one time. I can’t hold it back, I’m looking at his pitching line — 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 14Ks. Taking off my coat, and that’s me quoting Rakim’s quote, his pitches were kicking it until his last hitter, Ryan Doumit. My mind remains refined, all kinds of ideas. Self-esteem makes it seem like his pitching took years to build, but his age is just twenty-one. Prepared, never scared, he’s just a blessed one. And you know that I’ve never seen that terrible movie with Jamie Foxx, think it was called The Soloist, so Jose F. make ‘em clap to this. I said it the other day, but in case you weren’t reading, Fernandez is going to be the best pitcher going into next year. Thought he was a donut, you tried to glaze him. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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On today’s podcast, Grey went MIA and so Nick and I try to carry on with our lives by discussing all the big topics going on in baseball right now. And when I say ‘the big topics going on in baseball’, I kinda mean we sorta go over the big topics going on in baseball. And by that, I mean we sorta touch on baseball when we could fit it in. Why? Ask Nick. It took about five seconds for him to mention my dating life, and it all snowballed from there. (Just like your mom.) Sure, there were some moments of levity when talking about such things as Miggy and Prince’s slow start, Stanton’s hot start, and Rudy actually being the real-life version of Johnny Depp’s character (less mascara this time, imagine that) in Transcendence. For good measure, some porn ideas, purell, skyline chili, and Tehol are all mentioned within five minutes, begging the question of whether or not we are ready to launch Razzball Radio. I think it’s a resounding yes. Others might run away and take a shower and then, you know, call an exorcist.

Also, we stumbled into the first *real* contest for the 32in32in32 tour. And by stumbled, I mean we fell off a 10-story building. Long story short, if you are able to find my OKCupid dating profile, then you will win two tickets to the tour, at the city of your choice, and Nick and I will both buy you a beer and have you on air with us to do a critique of my profile. (Post the winning link in the comments section of this post or any Grey-post, or you can email Nick@RazzballRadio.com.) Would you date me? Would your sister date me? Is she hot? Then I would date her. I might also date you. Who knows at this point. We’re drinking. So yeah, we’ll talk about that. Or probably talk about something more relevant, like, oh, I don’t know… baseball? CRAZY, I know.

Well, here it is, the Razzball Podcast, with less Grey, more me (sounding like I’m from Tron), and Nick (sounding like he lives in a tunnel) in his closet. Buddy, that’s a powerful metaphor…

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Holy shiitake mushroom Batman… is it safe to come out yet? Bobby Parnell, Jarrod Parker, Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy, Patrick Corbin, Bruce Rondon, Jameson Taillon, Matt Moore, and now Ivan Nova have all fallen slain to some guy named Tommy John. Arrest this guy someone! Isn’t this world tragic enough without some mad man weaponizing UCL’s? Personally, I think this is all a plot by Dr. James Andrews to do what Peyton Manning did in Denver, and that’s put himself into position to control the food supply and then ultimately force us to eat all of our cats. Hunh? In fact, Dr. Andrews recently explained why there is such an uptick in UCL surgeries, but I’m pretty sure this is what was going on in his head as he was talking. Regardless, my expert advice is to just go ahead and hide all of your pitchers on the bench and stock up on canned goods. Spam is my choice. Deal.

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Stop me if you’ve heard this before but Colorado is playing at home and that’s a good thing for your DraftKings team. Yes, duh to the derp degree. We knows it now! With that said, you’re always looking for a way to get in on that action on the cheap. Tulo? He’s too high at $5,400. CarGo? Car Go bye bye at $5,700. And even Blackmon is nearing blackout territory at $4,600. What’s a playa to do? Well, you start looking at matchups and realize Madison Bumgarner is on the mound for today. Let me indulge you with something you either already know or could look up: MadBum is an LHP. Just in case you’re five and reading this – and you shouldn’t be, you have been advised – that doesn’t stand for Lego Harry Potter. Nay, we’re talking left-handed pitchers and that’s one of the few types of pitchers Drew Stubbs has handled well for most of his career. You see, little Stubby may have issues against righties but he’s handled the southpaw quite well for his career. In 618 career at-bats, Drew has 24 HRs while hitting .273. Now I’m no soothsayer but given that Michael Cuddyer is on the DL, I’d be surprised if the Rockies didn’t give Drew a day in right field and bat him in the two hole. At first, I thought this was lunacy on my part but then asked the Hitter-Tron what he had to say and he ranked him 18th overall for outfielders on the day. And then he asked me about my tail pipe and I left the room as fast as possible. You nasty, ‘Tron! Anywho, even though the Stream-O-Nator is ok with Madison in Coors, I think we all know the drill here. Get in on the cheap and if he’s in the starting lineup, peeps, cuz that’s the Sweet Spot…oh, did I just drop a promo mid-sell on Stubbs? Yes I did. Check the link if you’d like to win around $100K. You know, no biggie. With that said, let’s move along. Here are some other picks for today’s DraftKings contests for 2014 Fantasy Baseball…

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Michael Cuddyer to the DL with his hamstring injury. I love these Monday DL calls right after weekly fantasy lineups lock. Turr…iffic! You don’t care about our fantasy teams at all, Walt Weiss, do you? Last year it was Josh Rutledge, this year it’s Corey Dickerson. I wonder if he holds a secret grudge against fantasy baseball because it never rewarded his defensive prowess while he was playing. “Have you ever thought of adding fielding percentage to your fantasy league?” That was Walt Weiss disguised as a waiter at a Cheesecake Factory waiting on Dan Okrent’s table. Weiss then released bumblebees into Okrent’s suite at The Plaza while he read box scores in his robe. Walt is just bitter because the teacher he had a crush on never gave him the time of day. No, this isn’t the plot of Rushmore; the teacher was Carney Lansford. Ginger ’til he dies! So, with Cuddyer out, this could give Corey Dickerson a chance to show why he should be an everyday outfielder on all mixed league teams. Yesterday, Dickerson had the slam & legs and is capable of more. If you need a fifth outfielder, I’d give him a whirl. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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More terrible relievers turning into dominant starters, mo problems!

So it’s been an up-and-down start to this young season – pretty much all of my sleepers except maybe Corey Kluber (who I still like a lot) are doing great, Nathan Eovaldi still looks pretty good and I remain bullish on him, but Tyson Ross who I bailed on turned in a gem on Saturday.

Then to my rankings, where, yes, I didn’t have Jesse Chavez ranked last week.  I had him at 102 and couldn’t break him in, then Monday night he went out and carved up the Angels for 9 Ks in 7 innings with only one earned.  I mentioned that night in the comments I would have to add him in there, but before Monday he was a terrible career-reliever with only one eye-popping start at the Twins.  I’m regretting not adding him somewhere (“welcome to the party, pal!”), as I streamed some guys yesterday who weren’t awful, but would’ve preferred Chavez.  And I would’ve been right too, as he dealt another solid game.  Here’s how he looked yesterday against the Astros:

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People get hurt.  It’s one of the downsides of life – like a Katherine Heigl movie or the script for Season 4 of The Walking Dead.  Like all of God’s creatures, baseball players will also get hurt (they’re people, too, right?).  So unless you can put in a Cal Ripken “max health” cheat code into your fantasy baseball players’ bodies, dealing with injuries is something you’ll have to stomach for the next five months.

In each of the past two weeks I’ve covered some of the top players to stash on your team’s DL.  That route can be pretty cut and dry.  All fantasy owners should continue that process, but there are other ways to maximize injury potential.  It may sound a little grim, but targeting injured or injury-prone players in trades, or players that you may want to give up in a trade, is a savvy strategy that could net you a nice return.

To succeed in fantasy baseball you can’t be complacent.  Opposing owners often get frustrated with players who are constantly on the trainer’s table, and that’s always a good time to buy low.  It’s also a smart move to trade away a player who may be healthy now, but who’s been known to have worse luck than a cast member in one of the Final Destination flicks.

It’s a dirty business, but gambling on a player’s health can be profitable…

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