Fantasy Baseball Advice

Usually on Friday I go over one player who can be looked at keeping in keeper leagues, but the other day in the comments I was asked for some general fantasy baseball keeper league strategy.  A request and dedication, if you will.  For illustration purposes, let’s look at last year’s Chase Utley keeper post.  Go ahead, read it.  This’ll be here when you return.  Welcome back!  Okay, in that post I told you to keep Marmol and Utley.  At the time, Utley was about to have hip surgery and Marmol wasn’t the closer.  In my oversized brain, I figured, hip surgery be damned, Utley would still be a top hitter at a weak position. Which brings me to my first fantasy baseball keeper point:

1. Top hitters at weak positions rule in keepers.

Utley, Mauer, Hanley, et al. are top keepers.  I’m not a fan of drafting Mauer very early on in redrafts.  But in a keeper league, I’m assuming you have him for a lot cheaper than he’ll go in redrafts, especially when considering he went late in 2009 drafts because of back issues.

2. Value is a trump card.

In the above Utley/Marmol example, I knew Marmol would be very cheap on your team because he was nothing but a middle man in 2008.  Though he had the stuff to be the closer in 2009 and Kevin Gregg blocking him — ha!  Are you keeping Marmol over Miguel Cabrera?  Not unless Nurse Ratched just gave you a lobotomy.  Would I have told you last year to keep a 20th round Marmol over, say, a 8th round Vernon Wells?  Yes, I would’ve.  Another example of value as trump card, Derrek Lee in the 6th round or Kendry Morales in the 20th round?  Kendry Morales wins.

3. Try to figure out who your leaguemates are keeping.

Or the inverse of that, who will be available on draft day.  This is sometimes easier said than done, but you should be able to gauge more or less the guys that will be kept.  For instance, if there’s going to be no top 3rd basemen in the draft, it makes Kevin Youkilis in the 3rd round a lot more appealing.

4. When in doubt, keep a hitter.

I’m not opposed to keeping a pitcher or two, but if I could have my druthers — those are MY druthers! — I’d keep hitters.  Same that holds true for redraft leagues holds true for keepers.  Pitchers are unpredictable from year to year.

5. Take a gamble on upside.

Some players have top 50 upside.  Think The Dread Pirate.  Am I gambling on upside over a proven commodity?  No, I’m not.  But if you keep, say, 5 keepers, take 4 proven guys and gamble on one guy to have some upside.

6. Don’t be cute; go for the win this year vs. the future win.

This point couches point number five.  Don’t overload on future talent.  I’m sure Strasburg will be dynamite.  He may even be dy-no-mite.  That doesn’t mean you’re playing 2011 before 2010 even starts, future boy.

USA Today might no longer appreciate the insights shared by Larry King in his long-running column but we at Razzball were thrilled when he accepted our invitation to share his thoughts on Fantasy Baseball….

Greetings friends, acquaintances and ex-wives!  Wow, another baseball season is in the books!  I’d like to tip my hat to Joe Girardi.  If I had a son, I’d name him Joegirardi King… I haven’t been this excited for a Yankees win since the Civil War… Don’t worry, Philadelphia – at least you still have that delicious cream cheese….  The last game reminded me of the time I had lunch with Wolf Blitzer.  I fell asleep during both…. I wish there were fjords in Kansas…. The only thing new Cardinal hitting instructor Mark McGwire has to apologize for is his killer smile…. I hope Cole Hamels’ mom teaches him a thing or two about spunk… If I threw a party, I’d invite Carlos Ruiz and ask him how he squats behind the plate.  My knees don’t work so good anymore… I was enchanted by Sandra Bullock’s performance in All About Steve.  When she does an accent, Oscar says, “Yes!”… I don’t think Chone Figgins is going to leave the Angels because it’ll take too long to teach everyone at another stadium to say his name correctly… Why can’t I find my pajamas?  I’m cold…. The best restaurant on the Upper East Side is the alleyway behind Le Cirque where the bus boys hang out and smoke… I’m bucknaked as I type this, and I’m not typing with my fingers… Where has Celine Dion been? I’m dying for a music-inspired soundtrack for James Cameron’s latest, Avatar…  Speaking of which, am I the only one that wants to pronounce it Ava Tar?… If Sean Casey is the Mayor, then Mark Grace is the Comptroller… The player I most identify with in the Major Leagues is Manny Ramirez…We both are from a New York borough…We both use erectile dysfunction pills…We both pee at inappropriate times…. Ah, there’s my pajamas, who put them in the microwave?…. The Pirates fans better get their season tickets early, you got Akinori Iwamura now!  I regretted not buying a baseball team until watching Frank McCourt’s ordeal.  Such a shame as Angela’s Ashes is one of my favorite books of all time.  Let’s just hope that Peter and Maya Angelos stay together…

Arizona Diamondbacks 2009 Minor Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America:
2009 (26) | 2008 (15) | 2007 (3) | 2006 (1) | 2005 (13) | 2004 (13)

Major League Record and Minor League Affiliates Records
MLB: 70 – 92 (NL West – sixth worst record in MLB)
AAA: 79 – 64 (Pacific Coast League)
AA: 66 – 74 (Southern League)
A+: 64 – 76 (California League)
A: 59 – 78 (Midwest League)
A(ss): 28 – 48 (Northwest League)
R: 40 –36 (Pioneer League)

The Run Down
Arizona has traded away seven top 17 prospects prior to the 2009 season (#1 – OF – Carlos Gonzales (Rockies), #3 – SP – Brett Anderson (A’s), #6 – 2B/SS/OF – Emilio Bonifacio (Nationals, eventually Marlins), #7 – OF – Aaron Cunningham (A’s), #8 – 1B – Chris Carter (Mets), #13 – SP – Greg Smith (Rockies), #17 – P – Dallas Buck (Reds)). The Diamondbacks have acquired copious amounts of talent through trades and have sent even more talent away in trades. The Dan Haren trade definitely depleted their top talent (Gonzales, Anderson, Cunningham, Carter (who was acquired for 11 days from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for Carlos Quentin), and Smith). Haren has pitched extremely well for Arizona, however, Brett Anderson pitched well for the A’s too – not nearly as dominate, but eight years younger than Haren. Trading the farm for essentially one player may not have been the best decision. Josh Byrnes, the D-Back GM since 2006 (which coincidentally is the year their farm talent was ranked number one), has traded, signed and created a team that Baseball America says, “… [Has] created a roadmap of how to tumble from the top ranking to near the bottom in near record time. Arizona has drafted conservatively, leading to a lack of power arms and bats, and traded prospects aggressively to supplement a young, talented big league team.”

To add insult to injury, one of the games top power arms and their top prospect for 2009, Jarrod Parker, is having Tommy John surgery. In the Scouting the Unknown article I wrote regarding Parker, he was just visiting Dr. James Andrew about his “’elbow tightness’ that caused him to be DL’d on August 5th.” Now he’s out for at least a year. If not for his injury, Parker would have been in the same boat next year as Tommy Hanson was this year. With a rotation of Haren, Brandon Webb, Max Scherzer, Doug Davis and fill-in fifth starter, the Diamondbacks would love to improve from within. Webb is a huge question mark, Scherzer still needs to learn how to pitch and not just throw, Davis should be a long reliever or a fifth starter. On the hitting front, other than Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds, this team has very few sure things. Is Miguel Montero the real deal? Was the 2009 Stephen Drew the real Stephen Drew? Who plays second base? Can Conor Jackson return from Valley Fever? How good will Gerardo Parra be and what do you do with Eric Byrnes? They have a ton of questions to answer this off-season. Here are some players that could help sooner rather than later:

Graduating Prospects
#2 – Gerardo Parra (OF), #23 – Clay Zavada (RP), #8 – Billy Buckner (SP), #3 – Daniel Schlereth (RP), and Esmerling Vasquez (RP)

Players in the Arizona Fall League
Pitchers – Bryan Augenstein | Tom Layne | Scott Maine | Cesar Valdez
Hitters – Brandon Allen | Pedro Ciriaco | Cole Gillespie

Players of Interest
Numbers prior to a players name are their prospect rankings according to Baseball America 2009. Additionally, deviating from previous articles, the “Players of Interest” section will focus on higher level players or players that may end up on the MLB roster at some point during the 2010 season.

Hitters
Brandon Allen | 1B | AA/AAA | 23 | .298/.375/.503 | 447 AB | 24 2B | 20 HR | 85:50 K:BB | .205 ISO
Once he was acquired by the Diamondbacks from the White Sox for reliever Tony Pena, he raked in Triple-A. He was called-up to the Majors on the 21st of August and hit .202/.284/.385 striking out 38.5% of his 104 at-bats (40:12 K:BB). With Chad Tracy or Conor Jackson as the competition for first base next year, Allen may get a chance out of spring. However, a June call up would be more likely.

#9 (@ MIL) – Cole Gillespie | OF | A+/AAA | 25 | .273/.372/.472 | 417 AB | 20 2B | 12 3B | 13 HR | 18/5 SB/CS | 98:65 K:BB | .199 ISO
Gillespie was acquired in the Felipe Lopez trade. Playing only a month at High-A, the Brewers promoted him to Triple-A because he played at Double-A all of 2008. He is a little on the old side for a top prospect. Nevertheless, hitting 12, 14 and 13 homers these past three years isn’t overly impressive, but paired with 18, 16,17, and 18 steals in his four years as a minor leaguer, he looks like a poor man’s Mike Cameron. That isn’t terrible, just not jaw dropping nor Braun-like exciting. He is sneaky boring like Shin-Soo Choo.

#14 – Pedro Ciriaco | SS | AA | 22 | .296/.319/.367 | 469 AB | 15 2B | 4 HR | 38/10 SB/CS | 71:16 K:BB | .070 ISO
Bad news, defense is still an issue.  Good news, his steal efficiency has improved. The majority of his promise lies in his steals and quick defense. He still has too many errors to be a defensive improvement over Drew and he will never hit like him either. However, maybe moving Reynolds to first base, Drew to third, and Ciriaco to SS eventually may prove to be a better defensive infield for the Diamondbacks.

Pitchers
#1 – Jarrod Parker | SP (RH) | A+/AA | 20 | 8.8 K/9 | 3.5 BB/9 | 97 1/3 IP | 3.14 ERA | 1.35 WHIP | .353 BABIP | 73.2 LOB% | 3.21 FIP
Here is an article about Parker rehabbing. The StU article lays him out pretty well. Keep in mind that he won’t be near the majors for at least another 18 months.

Bryan Augenstein | SP (RH) | AA/AAA | 22 | 7.2 K/9 | 1.7 BB/9 | 81 2/3 IP | 2.98 ERA | 1.04 WHIP
Great control, decent strikeout rates, and actually pitched in the Majors this year (17 IP, threw 45 2/3 IP at Double-A, 36 IP at Triple-A). Not sure why he wasn’t ranked this year as he pitched well at Single and High-A last year. So far this fall, he has pitched decent in the AFL – 9:1 K:BB in 7 2/3 IP, 10 H, 5 ER

#5 – Wade Miley | SP (LH) | A/A+ | 22 | 7.1 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 128 2/3 IP | 4.20 ERA | 1.38 WHIP | 67.2 LOB% | 3.38 FIP
Offering three above average pitches, Miley’s biggest concern was sloppy command. He throws his fastball between 89 and 92 mph, a slider that’s his best pitch, and an average change-up. He threw 113 innings in 2008, and looks like he is following the Verducci rule.

Honorable Mentions
#26 – Leyson Septimo | RP (LH) | AA | 23 | 11 K/9 | 7 BB/9 | 56 2/3 IP
A lefty power arm that throws in the upper 90s but cannot locate his pitches. He had a 9.7 K/9 and 7.2 BB/9 ratios in 2008.

Winston “Ollie” Linton | OF | A+ | 23 | .295/.394/.399 | 491 AB | 28 2B | 10 3B | 1 HR | 28/14 SB/CS | 104:65 K:BB | .104 ISO
Strikes out way too much for a slap hitter. The steals are nice, and he hits the ball into the gaps well.

Josh Collmenter | SP (RH) | A+ | 23 | 9.4 K/9 | 3.4 BB/9 | 145 1/3 IP | 4.15 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 63.8 LOB% | 3.12 FIP
Marc Hulet mentions that Collmenter may actually be a bit better than his numbers state. Had the most strikeouts in the Diamondbacks farm system. Random fact, his hometown is Homer, Michigan. Arizona hopes that name doesn’t translate into any baseball stat.

Patrick McAanley | SP (LH) | A+ | 23 | 8.9 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 147 IP | 4.41 ERA | 1.42 WHIP | 71.9 LOB% | 4.08 FIP
Threw the second most innings in the Diamondbacks farm system and had the second most strikeouts. Important to note that he is a lefty in a system that lacks many left-handed arms.

Dan Taylor | SP (LH) | A(ss) | 21 | 11.2 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 63 2/3 IP | 3.53 ERA | 1.19 WHIP | 72.2 LOB% | 3.03 FIP
After getting drafted in the 2009 draft (in round 21), he posted the best ERA, WHIP, and AVE against in the Diamondbacks farm system. He pitched as a starter and reliever. He also posted a 1.24 Ground out to fly out ratio. Keep an eye on this young man.

Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | R | 21 | .334/.408/.638 | 287 AB | 27 2B | 18 HR | 74:36 K:BB | .303 ISO
Easily posted the most impressive raw numbers in the entire Diamondbacks farm. Drafted in the eighth round of the 2009 draft, Goldschmidt absolutely raked, had good walk rates, but needs to reduce his strikeouts. I would expect him to play at High-A and Double-A next year.

With Grady Sizemore dealing with an elbow issue and Tom Sizemore responsible for The Smoking Gun updates, finally we have a Sizemore that had a good 2009.  Scott Sizemore is the 2nd base prospect for the Tigers.  I know what you’re thinking, Crapolanco’s got 2nd base locked down, son.  Well, Dad, Crapolanco is entering free agency this winter so his time in Detroit may be over.  So, let’s assume that 2nd base is vacated for Sizemore in 2010, can he help you in fantasy baseball leagues?

In 520 at-bats between Double and Triple-A, Sizemore hit 17 homers and stole 21 bags while maintaining .308/.389/.500. He only lost about 60 points in slugging when he moved from Double-A to Triple and his line drive rate actually got better.  (More on Scott Sizemore’s minor league numbers.)  One drawback is he’s starting to ripen late for a prospect (he’ll be 25 years old in 2010).  He needs to make the move this year.  And, to be fair, if he played outfield, I may not be talking about him, but at 2nd base giddy-up.  Leyland has shown he doesn’t have any qualms about playing a rookie.  Incredibly, he batted a rookie third for about 200 at-bats in 2009.  Also, knowing Leyland’s tendency to save trees by Liquid Papering lineup cards, he may simply replace Polanco in the two hole with Sizemore. With a starting job, Sizemore could mean 80/14/70/.275/16 with upside from there.  This is exactly the kind of guy I would take a flier on at MI late in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts.  If he doesn’t pan out, then you grab Felipe Lopez or some other schmohawk.  So if you go with Sizemores for $300 and the answer is, “He has two working elbows and a blood alcohol level under .25.”  The question is, who is Scott Sizemore?

What I’d really like to see is a Major Leaguer go to Cuba to play.  Kevin Youkilis grows out his beard another five inches, jumps in a raft and paddles to Havana.  He tears up the Cuban Leagues on a steady diet of fastballs and plantains.  This could end the Cold War for good. (It might already be over.  I’m not good at history.)  Dayan Viciedo is the latest Cuban prospect to defect (actually Aroldis Chapman is the latest; whatevs, it’s an introductory paragraph).  With his defection… (Speaking of which, talk about a word that had nothing going for it.  You don’t want a defect in anything, unless you’re defecting from somewhere… I found that interesting.  Semantics?  Perhaps.) Dayan hit well in spring training and people were saying that the White Sox had done it again with a Cuban prospect, just like Alexei Ramirez; this was before that was an insult.  Early on, Viciedo struggled in the minors (Scouting the Unknown went over Dayan’s minor stats in June), then turned things around a bit as the season progressed.  So can Dayan Viciedo help your fantasy baseball team in 2010?

I’m going to say doubtful with a chance of “not at all.”  As with other recent Cuban raftees, Viciedo likes to swing the bat and doesn’t do much walking.  In his first year of the minors at Double-A, he had a .317 OBP with 89 Ks to 23 walks.  He can probably have success with this approach, because he do what he do.  His line drive percentages went up in the 2nd half of the year, showing he was making better contact.  Really his terrible April brought everything down.  Interesting (to me, at least), in April he had his lowest line drive rate and highest fly ball rate as his numbers suffered.  The Akron Chapter of Speculating on Small Sample Sizes says, maybe he was trying to do too much in his first month of minor league ball.  He’s still (supposedly) only 20 years old.  Another year (or at least a half year) will do him good.  Best case scenario, two to three months in Triple-A and a mid-summer call up.  Worst case scenario, we don’t see him until 2011.  Outside of keepers, I wouldn’t bother with him in your March 2010 drafts.