Let’s take a moment of silence for Christian Yelich’s season

 

 

On to the picks…

 

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We have a few top offenses to target today with the Twins, Red Sox and Dodgers, especially for DFS on FanDuel. The Dodgers the clear top offense since Antonio Senzatella is not great at the whole pitching thing. And the Red Sox have a bunch of cheap guys to squeeze in Bieber and still get some other dudes. Anyway we’re just going to dive in for a run through on this eight game slate.

On to the picks…

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Today’s slate features a team that, as of the writing of this introduction, has a 7.8 implied Vegas total. How rare is that? Before 2019, pretty rare – from 2014 to 2019, it happened twice – on July 10th, 2016 (The Rockies had an implied total of 7.8 against the Phillies) and on August 28th, 2017 (The Rockies had an implied total of 7.9 against the Tigers). This year it’s already happened five times, including twice outside of Coors! The five games were the Yankees hosting the Blue Jays on June 25th (7.8 implied total), the Astros on the road in Coors against the Rockies on July 3rd (7.8), the Rockies hosting the Giants on July 17th (with the record high implied total of 8.2), the Rockies hosting the Marlins on August 17th (with an 8 implied total), and finally the Red Sox hosting the Orioles on August 18th (7.8 implied total). If you expect me to try to do a statistical analysis on these games to see any pattern, well that’d be remarkably silly, as the sample size of 7 games would limit any study to be statistically meaningless. If you open the range of implied total up to say, 7.5 or above you may get a sample size of note, but there are people way smarter than me who have already done such analysis. It shouldn’t take advanced analysis to know you want to play the bats on a team with a 7.8 implied total. Especially when they aren’t priced that high, which is the case today. But I’ll get to that in the picks. But before I do, let me say that by the time I went back to proof-read this introduction, the implied total had risen to 8.1 (which means there’s only two other instances since 2014).

On to the picks…

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We’re almost at the end of August and I’m here to remind you that projections are still more important than what a player has done so far this year. MGL did a study a few years ago and found that a “hot” player, after 5 months, can have his projection bumped up a few points of wOBA, but a “cold” player hits what the projection says he’ll hit. Obviously if you’re reading this you’re statistically inclined, but even the best of us can weight the current season too much, especially for players who are in a big time slump. And in DFS when salary moves based on streaks and people get fearful after cold streaks, you should jump all over these guys.

On to the picks…

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Today’s introduction isn’t going to be very long. Why, you ask? Well, the FanDuel slate isn’t very complex. That’s not to say it’s a bad slate, just not a very complex one. You’ve got only five games and no expensive pitchers. So with people’s attention turning to football, I suggest you don’t overthink this slate. There’s still a clear ace, a clear best GPP pivot off the ace, and then the obvious offenses to target. The key decision point may just be where you find the one or two value plays you’ll need.

On to the picks…

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It’s trade deadline day and we’ve got a FanDuel slate that is beyond boring. It’s not even that it’s a garbage slate or a frustrating slate or whatnot – it’s just boring (with the question as of now of who the Mariners are throwing). The only real question is do you pay for deGrom or go grab the savings of Berrios. There’s an offense that if the Mariners don’t throw Wade LeBlanc as the bulk guy, is clearly the chalk (and deservedly so) play. It’s supposed to be moose nuts hot in Texas today, so if you’re not playing four Rangers today in cash (provided they aren’t facing a lefty) you’re doing something wrong. The only other offense to target is expensive, meaning that the cash formula is basically solved – pick deGrom, pick four Rangers (again, provided it’s not a lefty throwing the bulk of the innings) who make the most sense, fill with the values you like, and if that opens up a spot or two for an expensive Astros bat, all the better. That’s it. When you get a slate like this, there is a lot of GPP value. I’m not a GPP player and this isn’t a GPP-focused article, so any GPP advice I give comes with that caveat. Here’s a pretty big note I’ll put up front if the Mariners go lefty in the bulk role: the Rangers become a bit rougher play than normal, and you’re going to play more Giants than you want and trying to jam in Astros, which might necessitate a move to Berrios or Urquidy if you’re feeling a bit frisky in cash.

On to the picks…

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In what should set the record for shortest intro I have ever done, today we have an eight game slate on FanDuel that has neither a star pitcher nor can’t miss bats, nor does it have much in the way of value at the moment. But hey, at least we have some fun teams playing today and should have some solid games to watch while we sweat our lineups. 

On to the picks…

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This is a Coors Field slate and the weather is going to be hot, so you’re going to want to jam Coors Field plays into your FanDuel lineups. The biggest issue in your quest for 4 Astros is that they are a right handed hitting lineup and Peter Lambert, while terrible, is actually pretty decent at keeping the ball on the ground vs righties (52.9% and 30.6% vs lefties), so you’re going to want to target him with fly ball righties and anyone who swings a bat from the left side. Alex Bregman (36.2%), Robinson Chirinos (33.3%) and Tyler White (39.4%) are the righties who keep the ball off the ground (Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick are the lefties who project to start and are good plays). But, Lambert isn’t someone who you avoid playing ground ball righties at Coors because he can’t get them to swing and miss at all (11.5%) so George Springer and Jose Altuve are fine plays due to the fact that you’re in Coors and those 2 are capable of making contact and they do have some raw power. On the other side, Miley is like Lambert in his ground balls, except he is fairly neutral in his splits. But he throws with his left hand and the 2 best plays on the Rockies when they face a guy who throws baseballs with his left hand just happen to be guys who hit the ball in the air with some frequency. Trevor Story (31.1%) and Nolan Arenado (36.5%) are the top plays, but this game environment is going to be so good, playing any 4 Rockies is acceptable as well.

On to the picks…

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I don’t have any particularly insightful thoughts to put in an introductory paragraph, so let me just talk about how bonkers yesterday’s FanDuel slate was in regards to offense. The Cardinals had a Vegas Implied Total of 5 and they were the 11th highest offense on the slate. Five teams (Atlanta, Boston, New York (Yankees), Cleveland and Chicago (Cubs) all were projected by Teamonator to score 6 or more runs. A sixth team (San Diego) wasn’t too far behind at 5.96. It was truly bizarre. Well, actually, I’m not sure it’s bizarre anymore. With the summer months approaching and everything we know so far about the increased HR rates and increased offense (such as the ball or the emphasis on launch angle/exit velocity), these types of slates may become more and more common. Should make for an interesting year.

On to the picks…

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Before I get to today’s picks, let me start with one specific element of today’s FanDuel slate that I felt needed to be addressed. I wasn’t sure what to do with the Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks game. On its face, the game looks like a stay-away from hitters as both Jon Gray and Zach Greinke are solid enough pitchers that there will be far better matchups elsewhere. However, it is expected to be 102 degrees in Phoenix at first pitch. That is stupidly hot.  More after a word from our sponsor.

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