The top offenses today come with elite plays and values, so the majority of the picks are going to come from the Indians, the Twins, the Astros and the Red Sox. Outside of Cleveland those are three of the top six offenses in the game this year, so when in doubt, go with the good offenses.
On to the picks…
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Gerrit Cole, P: $12,100 – Cole is the best pitcher on the slate by far, and the cash pitcher.
Jake Odorizzi, P: $9,300 – I don’t love this, but the White Sox are filled with strikeouts and if he can get past the three power hitters, he should be at least OK. If Cole gets bombed, you should be good to go in GPPs and save almost $3k in the process.
Boston Red Sox – Jeff Samardzija is OK at throwing strikes (7.8% walks) and not good at getting strikeouts (18.1%) with a groundball split (26.6% vs lefties and 43% vs righties). Andrew Benintendi ($3,000, .349 wOBA and .173 ISO) and Rafael Devers ($3,600, .371 wOBA and .245 ISO) are the top plays at the top of the lineup given their value. Brock Holt ($2,400, .351 wOBA and .154 ISO) and Mitch Moreland ($2,700, .346 wOBA and .233 ISO) are the top value plays at the bottom of the lineup. Given the Red Sox general goodness, J.D. Martinez (.389 wOBA and .249 ISO) is a fine play, but not a priority spend on this slate.
Cleveland Indians – Spencer Turnbull vs lefties has below average strikeouts (18.3%), below average walks (8.6% walks) and above average groundballs (45.8%). The lefties we want to target are obviously Francisco Lindor ($4,000, .357 wOBA, .254 ISO and 38.7% groundballs) and Carlos Santana ($3,800, .349 wOBA, .211 ISO and 39.3% groundballs). If Mike Freeman ($2,500, .334 wOBA, .110 ISO) is batting at the top of the lineup, he’s a viable cost saving option, but he’s not a good hitter by any stretch of the imagination.
Minnesota Twins – Dylan Covey gets a massive amount of groundballs (51.5%), which sucks for us because we want the bombs. He does not, however, get any strikeouts (16.1%) nor does he throw strikes (9.7% walks). Against lefties he gets a touch more strikeouts (17.4%) and a touch more walks (12.9%) with a bunch less groundballs (46%). The lefties we want have to be able to get the ball in the air and the Twins do just that. Max Kepler ($3,300, .330 wOBA, .230 ISO and 38% groundballs), Jorge Polanco ($3,300, .375 wOBA, .184 ISO and 33.4% groundballs), Eddie Rosario ($3,200, .339 wOBA, .228 ISO and 34.7% groundballs) are the top lefties in the game. I wouldn’t mess around with any of the righties unless you want to play them in GPPs.
Alex Bregman, 3B: $4,100 – Kolby Allard is your basic league average starter, who does get some groundballs (44%), and against righties it’s at 43.4%. Bregman (.419 wOBA and 30.5% groundballs) is good at hitting and hits the ball in the air, combatting the ground ball tendencies of Allard. Yuli Gurriel (.349 wOBA and 37.5% groundballs) and Carlos Correa (.374 wOBA and 35% groundballs) are both solid plays given their price advantage over Springer and his groundball tendencies (47.9%).
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The weather report is good for us and there shouldn’t be any rain.
Doing Lines In Vegas
I like the under of 8.5 in Los Angeles since McKay and the Rays pen is solid, and Tony Gonsolin looks like he’s being transitioned to reliever for the playoffs, and the Dodgers should be in a bullpen game.