In what should set the record for shortest intro I have ever done, today we have an eight game slate on FanDuel that has neither a star pitcher nor can’t miss bats, nor does it have much in the way of value at the moment. But hey, at least we have some fun teams playing today and should have some solid games to watch while we sweat our lineups.
On to the picks…
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Patrick Corbin, P: $10,800 – Corbin is the best pitcher on the slate and has a pretty solid strikeout rate of 29.8% and walk rate of 6.4%. The Rockies on the other hand are the worst team in the league in road offense (68 wRC+) and lead the league in strikeout rate (28.1%). Your cash game pitcher should start with Corbin.
Shane Bieber, P: $10,100 – Bieber has a very respectable 27.8% strikeout rate to go with his 5.2% walk rate. Toronto isn’t a good offense either with a projected lineup with a 22.9% strikeout rate and a .329 wOBA. Toronto is both better and has the DH, which pushes Bieber to secondary cash game status.
Freddie Freeman, 1B: $4,000 – Brad Keller is an extreme groundball pitcher (50% vs lefties) who doesn’t get any strikeouts (17.5%). Freeman is a really good hitter (.396 wOBA) who hits the ball in the air (34.6% groundballs).
New York Yankees – Jake Odorizzi has a bit of a reverse split, most of which is in the walks so the righties on New York are a little safer than the average R v R. Odorizzi is an extreme fly ball guy, so we want guys with huge power and luckily the Yankees have a few of those. Aaron Judge ($4,500, .398 wOBA and .247 ISO), Aaron Hicks ($3,700, .372 wOBA and .226 ISO) and Edwin Encarnacion ($4,200, .353 wOBA and .253 ISO) are the top plays. Didi Gregorius (.347 wOBA and .225 ISO) is the best price per dollar play and will be quite popular after last years huge outburst. Luke Voit (.401 wOBA and .245 ISO) can hit long balls with the best of them and makes for a fine GPP play. Gleyber Torres (.360 wOBA and .188 ISO) and whoever bats 9th between Tauchman (.300 wOBA and .197 ISO) and Gardner (.333 wOBA and .187 ISO) are fine plays, but best left to the GPPs, unless they are batting high in the order, then they enter the cash game discussion.
Mitch Garver, C/1B: $3,600 & Nelson Cruz, OF: $4,000 – Happ is a strike thrower (6.6% walks) who strikes out an average number of guys (23.9% strikeouts). And vs righties, he also gives up a ton of fly balls (37.8% ground balls). Mitch Garver (.386 wOBA and .244 ISO) and Nelson Cruz (.412 wOBA and .333 ISO) are the best plays on the Twins. They aren’t super cheap, but they should be solidly in cash game consideration, with Cruz being one of the better plays on the slate. Miguel Sano (.340 wOBA and .269 ISO) is always a great GPP play due to his power.
Los Angeles Dodgers – So far in his young career, Jaime Barria has a reverse split (22.4% vs 16.2% strikeouts, 7.5% vs 9.4% walks and 39.7% vs 33.6% groundballs). Against lefties he’s a serviceable starter, but vs righties it’s been quite bad so far. We can still target the serviceable starter, but i’d want to keep it on the cheaper guys. So Alex Verdugo ($3,000, .352 wOBA and .188 ISO) is attractive for the price, and so is Joc Pederson ($3,600, .379 wOBA and .301 ISO). Justin Turner ($3,600, .372 wOBA and .156 ISO) is a good play, especially if you’re a buyer on the reverse splits. Corey Seager ($2,800, .382 wOBA and .197 ISO) is a little low in the projected lineup but he’s still too cheap for his talent level. I think there are better value plays than Max Muncy (.414 wOBA and .312 ISO) and Cody Bellinger (.408 wOBA and .287 ISO), but they make for good GPP plays.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
It looks to be pretty clear today.
Doing Lines In Vegas