This is a Coors Field slate and the weather is going to be hot, so you’re going to want to jam Coors Field plays into your FanDuel lineups. The biggest issue in your quest for 4 Astros is that they are a right handed hitting lineup and Peter Lambert, while terrible, is actually pretty decent at keeping the ball on the ground vs righties (52.9% and 30.6% vs lefties), so you’re going to want to target him with fly ball righties and anyone who swings a bat from the left side. Alex Bregman (36.2%), Robinson Chirinos (33.3%) and Tyler White (39.4%) are the righties who keep the ball off the ground (Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick are the lefties who project to start and are good plays). But, Lambert isn’t someone who you avoid playing ground ball righties at Coors because he can’t get them to swing and miss at all (11.5%) so George Springer and Jose Altuve are fine plays due to the fact that you’re in Coors and those 2 are capable of making contact and they do have some raw power. On the other side, Miley is like Lambert in his ground balls, except he is fairly neutral in his splits. But he throws with his left hand and the 2 best plays on the Rockies when they face a guy who throws baseballs with his left hand just happen to be guys who hit the ball in the air with some frequency. Trevor Story (31.1%) and Nolan Arenado (36.5%) are the top plays, but this game environment is going to be so good, playing any 4 Rockies is acceptable as well.
On to the picks…
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Chris Sale, P: $11,200 – Sale is the best pitcher on the slate with a 37.2% strikeout rate and a 6% walk rate. The Blue Jays aren’t particularly impressive with a .321 wOBA and a 22.7% strikeout rate. It’s usually a good idea to get the best pitcher in cash games, especially when they are named Chris Sale or Max Scherzer and this slate is no different.
Mike Clevinger, P: $9,000 – If you want to pay down a little, Mike Clevinger is in a good spot tonight. Clevinger hasn’t pitched well after coming back from his back injury, but if you’re OK with a little risk, you might get a good one for cheap. Clevinger tends to be a little wild vs lefties (10.8% walk rate) but the Royals lefties don’t walk (6.6%) and in general the lineup doesn’t hit very well (.311 wOBA) and has a 22.1% strikeout rate. Again, if you’re ok with the risk, it’s a good spot.
Walker Buehler, P: $10,100 – Buehler is a pretty good pitcher on a slate that doesn’t have many of them. He’s got a 28.1% strikeout rate and a 5.4% walk rate with a 46.1% ground ball rate. He gets a good real life offensive matchup in that the Dbacks aren’t a good hitting team (.323 wOBA) but they don’t strike out (19%) and strikeouts are key in DFS. I think this is more of a land on spot, barring some weird Dbacks lineup that adds strikeouts to the lineup.
Cincinnati Reds Lefties – Jhoulys Chacin’s struggles vs lefties have been well documented, but just in case, 14.3% strikeouts, 11.5% walks and 42.7% groundballs. Those are absolutely putrid and the Reds have the lefties to take advantage. Jesse Winker (.380 wOBA and .181 ISO) is the best play at his price at the leadoff position. Scooter Gennett (.374 wOBA and .192 ISO) and Derek Dietrich (.358 wOBA and .215 ISO) are the 2 next guys to play, at least if Scooter plays. I like Joey Votto (.377 wOBA and .160 ISO) but the power has just not been there and you need the home runs these days.
St. Louis Cardinals Cheapies – I’m pretty sure Cardinals haven’t scored a run this year and that’s why they are so cheap, but there are a few Cardinals who are cheap and good enough plays to let you get the elite bats and/or Sale. Tommy Edman is the least cheap and he’s a SS, so if you want to fade Story and Bregman, you can pay down with Edman. Jose Martinez (.344 wOBA) is actually a decent hitter sometimes can even get you points. Tyler O’Neill is stone minimum, has some pop (.231 ISO) and is projected to hit 5th on a Vegas Implied 4.8, that’s nice and tasty. Dexter Fowler (.291 wOBA) and Harrison Bader (.312 wOBA) tend to struggle vs righties, but they are cheap enough on a day that lacks elite value that you can play them to get the Coors studs.
Anaheim Angels – Ariel Jurado strikeout rate so far is 12.9%, which is known as “really bad.” He does throw the ball over the plate (6.7% walks) and gets groundballs (50.1%). Given Jurado’s strikeout rate, you can play anyone against him and obviously Mike Trout is the best play, but the Angels have a bunch of guys who can get the ball in the air and hit for power on this warm Texas night. Justin Upton (39.9% groundballs and .237 ISO), Kole Calhoun (40.1% and .207 ISO) and Shohei Ohtani (41.6% and .322 ISO) are all elite plays and may not be played because of the Coors Field game.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The east and midwest look to be in a mild heat wave while the west coast is a bit colder, so make sure to monitor.
Doing Lines In Vegas
As crazy as it sounds, I really like the over in Colorado where it’s 13.5 and expect it to be higher at closing.