We have a few top offenses to target today with the Twins, Red Sox and Dodgers, especially for DFS on FanDuel. The Dodgers the clear top offense since Antonio Senzatella is not great at the whole pitching thing. And the Red Sox have a bunch of cheap guys to squeeze in Bieber and still get some other dudes. Anyway we’re just going to dive in for a run through on this eight game slate.
On to the picks…
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Shane Bieber, SP: $11,000 – Bieber is a very solid pitcher and on this slate. He strikes out a decent amount of batters (28.3%), never walks anyone (4.9%), and is above average getting groundballs (45.9%). The White Sox on the other hand strikeout a ton (26.1%), don’t walk (6.3%) and can’t hit at all (82 wRC+), making this the spot to get your cash game exposure.
Trevor Williams, SP: $7,600 – We all know the Marlins are hot garbage fire and can’t hit and are going to throw a majority right handed lineup at Trevor Williams. Williams is decent enough vs righties, with 21.8% strikeouts, 7% walks and 41.6% groundballs. None of this is elite or anything, but the Marlins are terrible and Wiliams is very cheap, so he’s a decent dart.
Minnesota Twins – Eduardo Rodriguez struggles vs righties with a 23.4% strikeout rate, a 9.2% walk rate and a 45.6% groundball rate. The Twins have a bunch of guys who mash lefties. Start with Nelson Cruz ($4,200 .416 wOBA and .353 ISO) who is the most expensive Twins bat, but the best play. Mitch Garver ($3,300 .378 wOBA and .259 ISO) and C.J. Cron ($3,100 .405 wOBA and .291 ISO) provide the best value, unfortunately at the same position. Miguel Sano ($3,800 .330 wOBA and .259 ISO) can hit it out vs anyone but the price is not as good as Cron or Garver and the total value isn’t as good as Cruz, but he is a good GPP play.
Boston Red Sox – Jose Berrios has a decent split in his career. Vs righties he’s fairly decent with a 23.8% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate and a 46.2% groundball rate. Vs lefties he’s at 24.5% strikeouts, 8.1% walks and 40.8% groundballs. Luckily the lefties on Boston outside of Rafael Devers ($4,100 .374 wOBA and .247 ISO) are all value plays, so you’re not paying for the possibility that good Berrios shows up and you’re left holding your you know what. Mitch Moreland ($2,900 .347 wOBA and .236 ISO), Brock Holt ($2,400 .351 wOBA and .162 ISO), Andrew Benintendi ($3,200 .356 wOBA and .178 ISO) and Jackie Bradley, Jr. ($2,600 .334 wOBA and .210 ISO) are the value plays on the Red Sox. And given the opportunity cost, Holt and Benintendi are probably the best plays followed by Moreland.
Los Angeles Dodgers – Antonio Senzatella is an extreme groundballer (51%) who struggles to get strikeouts (14.5%) and walks guys (9.1%). The Dodgers also have a bunch of guys who hit the ball in the air to combat Senzatella. Cody Bellinger ($4,800 .398 wOBA, .287 ISO and 34.9% groundballs) is obviously the best play here but he’s also the most expensive, so you’re really going to need to load up on value to afford him. Corey Seager ($3,400 .358 wOBA, .207 ISO and 37.8% groundballs) is an excellent price and at a position that is thin. If Gavin Lux is at the top of the order again, he’s an excellent value play at 2B for $2,500.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
It looks to be a clear night.
Doing Lines In Vegas