Fantasy Baseball Advice

Brandon Phillips isn’t the shiniest tool in the toolbox, but he hit two homers off Beachy yesterday.  He’s gone from a 30/30 2nd baseman to a 20/20 2nd baseman to now an 18/15 2nd baseman, but that doesn’t mean you’re completely screwed if you overpaid for him on draft day.  As long as Dusty hits him between Votto and Bruce, good ol’ Brandon should deliver above average R/RBI at a solid average.  He might not be as sexy as an Altuve or a Jemile, but he’ll probably be a better value the rest of the way.  BTW, even if you didn’t own him last night, the best thing about BP wrecking another Beachy was we didn’t have to sit through a celebrity telethon and Sean Penn’s sourpuss.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Psyche! Before we get into the roundup, here’s the latest podcast. We talk about the Nats bullpen, Brandon Beachy and I read a poem I wrote for Gio Gonzalez.   If that’s not enough for you, Rudy references Lil Jon and drops an F-bomb, which isn’t as deadly as an A-Bomb, but nearly as effective.  Anyway II, here’s the roundup and podcast:

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Download directly the Razzball Podcast.

Zack Cozart – He homered again yesterday for his second in two days because he wants to make it up to me for his early season struggles.  At least that’s what my ventriloquist dummy wearing a Cozart jersey told me.

Mat Latos – 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks.  I want everyone to promise me one thing.  If you don’t want to own Latos right now because of his ERA roller coaster ride, write it down somewhere that you won’t read until next March.  So when you see his 3.50 ERA from 2012, you don’t draft him and then want to drop him for the first 6 weeks of next season too.

R.A. Dickey – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 11 Ks.  When asked in the clubhouse where’d these strikeouts come from, Dickey said he pictured all the batters were his childhood bullies who used to pick on him.  Must’ve been hard for a guy named Dickey who was a knuckleballer.

Frank Francisco – Pitched a perfect inning for his 11th save.  Only during the Closepocalypse could a guy with 11 saves and a 7.13 ERA appear good.

James McDonald – Had another great start (7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks).  E I E I Own!

Kevin Youkilis – The Greek God of Limps has returned, and homered.  Opa!

Adrian Gonzalez – Comatose Red Sox Fan, “A-Gon is in the outfield?  So Ortiz is playing first and it’s interleague play?”  Nope.  “Our pitching is doing well, but we’re trying to squeeze in more offense?”  Nuh-uh.  “Please, tell me we’re at least in first for the Wild Card.”  You might want to sit down for this.  The A-Gonz outfield experiment is lasting beyond interleague as the Sawx are stuck with Middlebrooks and Youuuuuuuk at the corners.  Maybe while in the outfield, A-Gonz can reacquaint himself with the area behind the fences.  Not sure if he’ll play there enough to gain OF-eligibility outside 5 game leagues, but it can’t hurt his value.  Hopefully he can avoid the injury curse that is befalling all the Sawx OFs (Crawford, Ellsbury, McDonald, Ross, Kalish….)

Scott Podsednik – I’m gonna go out on a limb and say if you played any post-collegiate outfield, you could receive a call from the Red Sox.  This includes Matt Stairs’ Steak and Keggers Softball League.

Gavin Floyd – 3 2/3 IP, 9 ER pitching at home against the Twins.  Yowza!  Floyd is generally a safe 5th/6th SP in shallow leagues, but you just ask that he does this against a good opponent so you have a proper heads-up.  Party foul, Gavin.

Gordon Beckham – 3rd HR in 4 games (and Vernon Wells robbed him of a HR the game before that).  Not bad for the most British-sounding 2B since William Randolph.

Travis Wood – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 baserunners, 3 Ks, as he was recalled by the Cubs to take Volstad’s spot in the rotation.  Wood had a 4.57 ERA in Triple-A this year.  That’s depressing, until you think about how fortunate you are that you’re not the Red Sox outfield.

Bryan LaHair – Sat out yesterday because he’s in a 1-for-20 skid.  And here I thought he’d hit .400 this year.  I’m glad I didn’t request MLB to defrost Ted Williams’ head.  On May 11th, when I told you to sell him, he had a .384 average with 8 homers.  He now has 10 homers with a .315 average.  He could be a platoon player by June 15th.

Alfonso Soriano – 1-for-4 with his 4th homer.  At least he’s having the decency to hit so it’s not completely laughable that the Cubs will find someone to take him off their hands.  Kinda laughable, just not completely.

Jeff Francoeur – 2-for-4 with his 3rd homer in… Let’s see how many times have I told you to own him in the last week?

Matt Carpenter – Left yesterday’s game with an injury to his side.  Just when you thought the oblique couldn’t get any vaguer, teams are now just calling it an injured side.

Michael Bourn – 2 homers yesterday.  That’s typically a season for him.  Did his 3rd round drafter Matthew Berry erase his memory and Bourn suddenly assumed a power-hitting identity?

Vance Worley – Hopes to pitch again even after visiting Dr. Freeze.  Here’s what frequent commenter, Cahhhhh-stanza, said, “Jo Anne’s son, Vance, went to see Dr. Freeze Monday for a 2nd opinion.  His first opinion?  Your mom’s best acting was on Rowan & Martin’s Laugh-In.  His second opinion?  I think a 12-18 month vacation may be in your future.”

Roy Halladay – 6 IP, 5 ER.  I’m officially concerned.  Is this the beginning of the end for him being a number one?  Citizens Flank is obviously not the friendliest of ballparks for pitchers, but that hasn’t changed from the last two years.  Luckily, you didn’t draft him and just went with Anibal and Gio to anchor your staff like I told you.

P.J. Walters – The ex-Cardinal had a complete game victory vs. the White Sox – giving up 2 ER and 8 Ks.  That’s 3-for-3 in quality starts so far.  His minor league stats don’t hint at this being his breakout season, but maybe PJ’s turning into a sleeper.

Robinson Cano – 1-for-3 with his 5th homer.  Still off the 8 homer, Ian Desmond pace car.

Josh Bell – 1-for-4 with a homer.  He was hitting the feathers out of the chicken (that’s a saying) in Triple-A.  He was also striking out more than a beagle in heat (also, a saying).  I wouldn’t want him for the long term, but he has everyday playing time and might stay hotter than a camel riding a furnace (not a saying).

J.J. Putz – 3rd blown save last night with 1 IP, 2 ER.  Dickey and Putz’s fortunes seem to be going in opposite directions like Siamese twins connected at the back.  After Putz lived up to his name last night, it might be wise for his owners to handcuff themselves to David Hernandez.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 6 IP, 3 ER, 11 baserunners (6 BBs), 2 Ks.  Six walks and two Ks?  Did Francisco Liriano’s doctor do some ‘minor’ surgery on Ubaldo?

Tyler Clippard – Davey Johnson reached into his bag of relievers and pulled out Clippard to save the game against the Phillies.  Nice 1-2-3 inning.  Now get back in the bag, Tyler, before Davey Boy goes all bulldog on ya.  BB-Rod is safe to drop for Craig “The Pistol” Stammen, Sean Burnett or Tyler Clippard.  If I were picking them up, I’d do it in reverse order.  Unless you’re reading this in a mirror.  .tops dlab eht eciton neve t’nac ,doog skool riah ruoY

Ryan Zimmerman – Sat out yesterday with shoulder soreness.  I’m hoping it’s a coverup because Jordan Zimmermann pitched and they only have one jersey.

Alex Avila – Hit his 5th homer yesterday.  If someone grew bored of the .220-ish hitting Avila, he’s a decent guy to grab off waivers.  No reason to think he can’t get back to respectable.  That sounds like a title of an R&B album, Get Back To Respectable.  A soulful journey as one woman gets back on her feet after a terrible breakup, as sung by Grey Albright.

C.J. Wilson – 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners (1 Hit), 7 Ks.  Of course, if you read any other site, the lead story is Pujols hit a home run.  Then twenty minutes of Bruce Harper, then what does Pujols think of Bryce Harper.

Elliot Johnson – 3-for-4 with his 8th steal.  Kinda annoyed I missed out on him in the RCL, but I got Cozart homering now.  Small booya.

Carlos Pena – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs and his 6th homer as he hit leadoff.  …HA!  Sorry, tried to keep a straight face there.  The Rays are so good, Maddon can’t even Mr. Bungle them.  Luke Scott also homered.  As we know from past experiences, Scott and Pena only homer 5 times in a ten day span, never once.

Hanley Ramirez – 3-for-5 with 2 steals.  Now him and Reyes are red hot.  Or is that red-orange?

Brian Matusz – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 baserunners, 9 Ks against the Sawx.  Tip of the hat for the huge nutsacked owners who started him in this matchup.  That includes those whose nutsacks are enlarged due to a medical condition and who happened to have Matusz in their starting rotation before going to the hospital.

Wilson Betemit – 1-for-3 with his 7th homer.  Sure, I should’ve went with Betemit over Ryan Zimmerman, but a lot of good that’s doing me now!

Adam Wainwright – 4 hit shutout against the Padres with 9 Ks.  We told everyone who listened to last week’s podcast to buy him as it only seemed like a matter of time before he Wainwrighted the ship.  We have one word for how that must’ve tasted…

Yan Gomes – The Brazilian whacks another one!  Just an FYI to those of you who are getting sick of LaHair in that slot.

Allow me an ignorant rant: If you are a baseball fan you know this is the most important time of the year outside of October. Interleague play has taken over MLB and it represents a very important part of baseball: the fans. The people who buy the $4 hot dogs and $8 beers. Sure you may think interleague play is just to sell tickets, but fans buy tickets! People love rivalries and when its time for the Arizona Diamondbacks to play the Kansas City Royals IN KANSAS CITY–well, as a fan I just need to be there. You can taste the bad blood between Willie Bloomquist and Billy Butler. And what fan isn’t in attendance or watching at home when the Mariners are taking on the Colorado Rockies. Hipsters and cowboys alike all watch with anticipation as these heated rivals duke it out. You can just tell Ichiro HATES Carlos Gonzalez, and you can cut that tension with a knife. Let’s not forget Cleveland and Miami duking it out to settle….Um……Well…Who gets LeBron back?

In all seriouslyness, there are some very cool rivalries taking place this weekend including the North and South sides of Chicago squaring off for the title of “Worst Baseball Team,” The Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies try and decide whose fans are drunker and whose are more obnoxious? And clearly every Oriole in the clubhouse already hates Bryce Harper. So, there’s that.  Here’s what happened in fantasy baseball last night:  **Extra Special Interleague Edition**

Justin Verlander - Complete game 1-hit shutout, 12 Ks. Brought a no-no into the ninth, buh Josh Harrison broke it up with 2 outs left. Asked about the tough luck, Verlander shook it off and just stressed how great interleague play is. For the fans.

Delmon Young - Everyone (except Mel Gibson’s) favorite angry outfielder went 2-for-4 with 3 RBIs. After the game, he was spotted getting his picture taken with the Hank Greenberg statue.

Paul Konerko – Hit a first inning HR off Jeff Samardzija. Jeff Samardzija came back out in the third and was all like, “Oh yeah? In yo’ face, Paul Konerko!” Literally, pitchslapping him. The injury sounds like it’s going to be just some minor bruising, i.e., Konerko should be fine. For seriouslyness, it couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy and I hope all is okay. At least he seems like a nice guy, I only read the box scores.

Addison Reed – Got his 4th save. 4-for-4 in save opportunities since taking the job, that one 6 ER Kazaam! has been his only misstep. Reed is the man for now.

Kerry Wood – Ended his career this afternoon by striking out the only batter he faced. It was 19 off from his career high, but whatevs we’ll let it slide. Finishes his career with a 10.3 strikeouts per 9.0 IP rate, 2nd in ML history. He left to a standing ovation and a hug with his sonny. It was such a nice moment, it made Cubs fan forget how bad he’s been this season. Ahhhh, warm embraces with father and son and interleague matchups, this is what baseball is about people.

J.P. Arencibia – 3-for-5 with 6 RBIs, 2 HRs. His third straight game with homer run! ALL HE DOES IS HIT HOME RUNS! Is your fantasy team in need of home runs!? Need a catcher? Why not pick up J.P. Arencibia!

Rajai Davis – 2-for-4 with 2 HRs and 4 RBis. Not sure why I’m telling you, you don’t own him anyway.

Yan Gomes – 1-for-2 with a HR as the Jays absolutely crushed the Mets putting up 14 runs. Grey covered Gomes yesterday. If he continues hitting, and more importantly, playing, Yanny the singer/songwriter/baseball player could be a sneaky add with his catcher eligibility. He also plays a number of positions (none very well I read). Make sure you monitor closely.

Andy Pettitte- Yankees combined to shutout the Reds. Pettitte pitch 8 IP with 9 K. Wow. Might be worth a look, he gets the Royals next week. Pettitte added that he agreed with Justin Verlander about how awesome interleague play is…for the fans.

Robinson Cano – 2-for-3 with his 4th home run. Still one more than Albert! Robbie, Robbie getting hits like it’s his hobby. No–like it’s his jobby! It’s actually his jobby.

Adrian Gonzalez – 1-for-4 with just his 3rd home run. I’m sure that .273 average should go up well above .300 but I’m not sure Adrian is the 30+ home run player we all once thought he was. 25 seems more realistic. I say this because he’s on my team and I’m in my 5th stage: acceptance.

Martin Prado – 2-for-4 with a HR and 3 runs. Now has a 10 game hitting streak and 6 straight multi-hit games. Martin Bravo is more like it! Right?!

Edwin Jackson – 8.0 innings pitched 1 ER with 8 Ks but the Nats can’t muster any offense and lose in extra innings with a Nick Markakis Sparkakis. Oh, but the K’s, the glorious Ks! I’m not sorry, Mr. Jackson, I’ll take this fantasy start any day of the week.

Heath Bell – Pitched a clean 9th inning to get his 4th save. If you still own Cishek or Mujica it may be safe to drop now. Carlos Zambrano earned his second straight win 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K. Ozzie Guillen loves Carlos Zambrano magic, he said he reminds him of a young Fidel Castro. No wait–Heath Bell said that. Will he lose the closer’s job now!?

Adrian Beltre – 2-for-3 and 2 RBIs with his 8th HR. Yo, Adrian! You did it. (I promise that’ll be my only Rocky joke.) Josh Hamilton stole a base, but went homer-less. Pathetic.  You can’t win, Hamilton!  (Sorry.)

Krispie Young – Returned from DL to DH and went 1-for-4 with a 2 run double. It’s good to have Krispie back, he is good at baseball (*Pro Tip!). His BFF Justin Upton (they are best friends in my mind, at least) went 2-for-3 with 3 runs. J-Ups is slowly but surely making me feel better for drafting him so high, he’s just happy to have his best friend back.

Kevin Millwood –  Complete game 2-hit shutout of Rockies at Coors. His complete game first in 9 years! He struck out 7.  Prince, “He’s pitching like it’s 1999.”

Ryan Braun – 3-for-4 with the slam and legs and a side of mash (3 hits!). Mmmmm, breakfast food!

Denard Span – 4-for-5 with 3 runs and 3 RBIs in his return from a hamstring injury. Pretty good, I guess but I’d be more impressed if he stole a base, too. The Twins owned this game as Joe Mauer, Josh Willingham and Justin Morneau all chipped in multi-hit efforts. Grey was right! Those Twins are hot-hitting! PICK UP ALL THE TWINS!  Except Dozier.  Snooze.

Mike Trout – 3-for-4 with a stolen base and a triple. If you are fishing for a compliment, Mike Trout, no need. You are quite the catch. That Albert, however, 1-for-4, still sort of floundering.

Jered Weaver – 7.0 IP, 3 hits, 2 ER, 4 Ks as Weaver rebounded huge after last week’s 8 ER debacle. I guess you don’t have to drop him anymore. Scott Downs came in this game in the 8th, and was replaced with Ernesto Frieri in the 9th after the Angels scored 3 runs. Not sure what to make of this yet, hopefully just Mike being a Sciosciapath and he removed Downs because it was no longer a save opportunity. Think of the fantasy owners, Mike!  Or maybe Mike was removing Downs from the closer role because Downs hadn’t done anything, like Walden before him.

Melky Cabrera – 2-for-3 with 2 runs in a high scoring game with very few fantasy implications with Buster Posey out. Anyone own Angel Pagan? He had 3 runs!

Josh Donaldson – 3-for-5 with a home run. Wait. Who is this?

Matt Holliday – 1-for-3 with a 2-run home run. It was Holliday’s 9th home run as the Cards lost to the Kemp-less Dodgers. Lance Lynn pitched 6.0, 9 hits, 4 ER, and 5 Ks. Double L, It was fun while it lasted.

Lance Berkman – Pinch hit HR in the 9th to tie it as the Big Puma, baseball’s resident super hero BerkMAN saves the day only to be foiled by his arch nemesis Fernando Salas (0.1 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 3 BB).

First off, the Master Standings should be up next week, so it’s time to quit fooling around. You don’t want to be trailing a Yahoo! expert, do you? Secondly, isn’t it frustrating when your top pick struggles early?

According to the Razzball Player Rater, of the 20 players we selected at least once in round 1, only Matt Kemp (Congrats Boesch Hog, Blue Heaven, 7 Js and 2 Jeys, and AZ Kush Mafia for making Matt the first overall selection!) and Roy Halladay have put up 1st round numbers. Justin Verlander (16) and Hanley Ramirez (20) are close enough, but where’s everbody else? Miguel Cabrera (93), Adrian Gonzalez (132), Joey Votto (137), and Albert Pujols (346) are all under-performing badly. How about Ryan Braun (272) and Jose Bautista (292)? Oh, well, it’s early. Don’t panic. They’ll start hitting eventually. And, of course, there are always other players who are outperforming their draft position to keep you competitive. Like Josh Hamilton (2, ADP: 35) and Krispie Young (6, ADP: 95.)

Expert League: As was expected, some of the experts have other leagues they are more worried about, so their teams here are neglected. Worst is Team Emack (Eric Mack), whose only moves came on April 1, when Michael Pineda was placed on the DL and Chipper Jones added. 3 minutes later came his final move, replacing Chipper with Bryce Harper. Currently the team features 8 injured players, including 6 in the starting lineup. Rudy and Grey are following different strategies, as Grey leads the league with 29 moves, while Rudy is giving his drafted players a chance to prove themselves, having added just 3 players. Mastersball Carey (Ryan Carey) is setting the pace with 99 points, followed by Secret Treasure Loaf (Andy Behrens) at 79.5.

Trades: A busy week, with 18 trades consummated. That includes one in the ECFBL where the Silver Bullet Bandits and Copales Charros undid an earlier trade when one of the traded players, Brett Gardner, was injured. Copales Charros also traded Matt Holliday to Uncle Robbies Daffiness Boys for Felix Hernandez. There were some surprising trades for saves. In Ones are GOOD right, NYC Matthole traded Drew Stubbs to Unlucky Llamas for Fernando Rodney. Army of Llamas sent Matt Wieters to Bushwood Varmint Cong for Grant Balfour in the Epic Beardmen Division. Probably the biggest name traded was Roy Halladay, in RCL 22, who was sent by Manitoba Manwhores with Coco Crisp to FWG Herders for James Shields and Mariano Rivera. You can find all the trades in the fantasy baseball forums.

League Leaders

Broth’s  Baseball Stars (Fausto or Roberto?) was the top hitting team this week. They hit .360 with 17 home runs and 72 RBI, 50 runs, and 6 steals. Matt Kemp was their 5th best hitter! Ahead of him were Freddie Freeman (.478/14 RBI), Josh Hamilton (.462/11 RBI), Mike Napoli (.440/10 RBI), and Derek Jeter (.407/6 RBI).

Average: .360 (Broth’s  Baseball Stars – Fausto or Roberto?)

Runs: 58 (Army Of Llamas – Epic Beardmen Division)

HR: 20 (AZ Kush Mafia – RCL 29)

RBI: 72 (Broth’s  Baseball Stars – Fausto or Roberto?)

SB: 17 (Team Everett – Beef SAGNOF!)

CROP DUSTIN (RCL 46) had some top pitching numbers with 5 wins, 6 saves, and an ERA of 1.11 and 0.99 WHIP. Their lineup features Clayton Kershaw (9 K/0.00/0.71), Matt Cain (0.00/0.33), and Brandon Beachy (0.00/0.68).

Ks: 97 (Navin Johnson’s Puke Diamomds – Magnificent Mustachioed Men)

Wins: 11 (Navin Johnson’s Puke Diamomds – Magnificent Mustachioed Men)

Saves: 12 (Baltimore Scorioles – RCL 20)

ERA: 1.05 (Dixie Rebels    - Fantasy Master Lotharios)

WHIP: 0.69 (Poorjays – Beef SAGNOF!)

 

TEAM OF THE WEEK -  April 16 – 22
The Fredsies (ECFBL)
83/287 (.289) 45 R/18 HR/44 RBI/3 SB	72.1 IP 70K/8 W/1.62/1.09/11 S
The Fredsies strong pitching won them the weekly honors over some tough competition. They had 8 different pitchers record wins, while 6 added saves. Vance Worley tossed 7 scoreless innings with 11 Ks. Rafael Betancourt and Henry Rodriguez each contributed 3 saves. On the offensive side, Mike Napoli (.440/7 R/5 HR/10 RBI) and Matt Kemp (.381/4 Runs/3 HR/6 RBI) were once again dominant.

As I alluded to in my 3rd baseman posting, first base scares me greatly this year in a deep league format.  Outside the big six – Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, & Mark Teixiera – I see very little reliability from a position that could leave you hurting if you aren’t an owner of one of those guys.  Don’t agree with me?  Well go look at the 1st baseman that come after those 6 on Mock Draft Central to round out your top ten: Konerko, Hosmer, Morse, & Berkman.  Your 11th is Freddie Freeman; the quintessential average first baseman.  I know people want to consider Konerko safe, but he’s 36.  I prefer not to be the first person in line to find out when the wheels come off guys like him.  Then there’s Hosmer – a 22 year old who can’t take a walk.  I like his career long term, but even fangraphs is projecting him around 23/13.  Steals are nice, but I want 30 HRs from my 1st baseman and I want them now!  Round things out with Morse – a person with very little track record though I do kinda trust him – and Berkman.  Hey, if I don’t trust Konerko at 36, why would I trust a guy who had his worst major league season in 2010 and hit 24 of his 31 HRs in the first half of his rebound 2011 campaign who is also 36 and won’t have Pujols in his lineup anymore?  And was that a long sentence or was it just me?  Point being, I do not want to leave the first round without a 1B this year.  Taking Teixiera would most likely ruin my perfect draft, but I would grab him nonetheless.  However, if I could get one of those first 5 this year, I’d feel comfortable taking a risk on Paul Goldschmidt around the 12th.  There are a lot of upside plays later in the draft that I have no problem taking a gamble on, but I want at least one of my first basemen to be an offensive rock for me.

I’ll Avoid

Freddie Freeman - Well duh, ONC, you’ve already said you don’t trust him.  Actually, I didn’t say I have no faith in him, I said he was boring.  Like Gaby Sanchez boring.  But Sanchez’ ADP is 196 while Freeman’s is 120; I called and left a message with mockdraftcentral about this one and they haven’t gotten back with me yet.  Wanted to know if it’s a girls name discount or something.  I also asked them about why guys disappear from the rankings when you filter by position like why I can’t see Berkman and have to rewrite my post because of it.  Don’t they know I have a day job and need to leave for work right now?  Neverthewho!  Some people believe the end of the season was the start of a breakout.  Some people also believe that aliens built Egyptian pyramids.  You can believe whatever you wanna believe.  Just keep it off my History Channel.  I came here for facts!

Ryan Howard – Didn’t have a great season last year then fell down, went boom as the final play of the Phillies playoff run.  He hasn’t played for long but he was a late prospect; dude is 32 coming off a really bad injury.  I think there are better gambles you can make at 176 ADP.

I’ll Go For:

Adam LaRoche - Nestled in the bosom of the the 26th round is a name that many are familiar with from fantasy baseball years past.  LaRoche – which is french for ‘The Roach’, though I don’t know if that’s the bug or the thing you pass around the lava lamp while making philosophical ruminations about Scooby Doo – isn’t sexy, for sure.  He’s a been there, done that kind of guy who gives you 25 HRs and 80 to 90 RBI with a .270 average when healthy.  Considering the health risks of Kendrys Morales (18th round) and Justin Morneau (14th), you’re taking much less risk with his shoulder holding up than you are with the other two.

Chris Davis - Oh yes, I went there.  The hatred of Davis runs deep.  Going back to 2010, he was supposed to be a 30 HR hitter in the middle of a dangerous Texas lineup.  But its hard to stick in a lineup when you strike out 35% of the time.  Though he jacked 21 HRs in 2010, he had a .238 average and showed a lack of patience at the plate with a 5.7% walk rate.  Truthfully, none of these potholes in his game have necessarily changed.  What HAS changed is he’s on a team that doesn’t mind a guy that strikes out 200 times in a season.  If they’re willing to ride Mark Reynolds at 3B while he hits .221, why would they show Davis the door?  Look for 25 HRs, a crap-ton of K’s and don’t expect an average above .250; you shouldn’t be disappointed with finding that with a 297 ADP.

Situation to Monitor: Oakland

They’ve got 4 guys competing for the starter’s role in Oakland this year.  One guy has a great OBP but no power: Daric Barton.  Two of them have great power, ok OBP but a craptacular K rate: Chris Carter & Brandon Allen.  And then there’s Kila Ka’aihue. I just can’t quit this man.  Kila seems to fit everything that Moneyball is supposed to be about: I get on base via walks or I hit a HR.  Kansas City only brought him up last year because they needed someone to cover first while they groomed Hosmer’s game and his scroatee (that’s my term for goatees grown by young men who can’t really grow them.  They’re scruffy lookin.  Scruffy + Goatee = Scroatee.  Get it?  Yeah, whatever to you too!  PS, don’t go look up the Urban Dictionary on that one.  Or do if you need reverse psychology).  Back to the point: That type of confidence in a player doesn’t breed…well, confidence in a player.  This one should play out fairly quickly in spring training but my bitcoins are on the Kila monster winning the job.

The top 10 and top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball are in the bag, along with the top 20 catchers and your receipt for a $30 massage valued at $50.  Thanks, Groupon!  Today, Razzhands, we look at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.  All this shizz can be found under the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  Don’t believe me?  Click the link.  This top 20 list of 1st basemen is bursting at the seams like you at a Hometown Buffet.  Speaking of gorging yourself, I’d like a top 1st baseman on my team in 2012, but it’s a little different year than last year.  There’s actually only 5 top first basemen then caveats on number 6 (Te(i)x) through 9, then there’s some interesting flyers a bit later.  I have a feeling 2013′s rankings are going to see major shifts with some guys that are lower on this ranking sheet moving up.  Should be a fun year for first basemen and one where you can take a bit more risk than previous years.  This list will get additional 1st basemen added to it in the way of sleeper posts.  As with the other rankings, the first basemen are broken up into tiers with my projections included.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Miguel Cabrera – See top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Miguel Cabrera’s projections.

2. Albert Pujols – See top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Albert Pujols’s projections.

3. Joey Votto – See top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Joey Votto’s projections.

4. Adrian Gonzalez – See top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Adrian Gonzalez’s projections.

5. Prince Fielder – See top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Prince Fielder’s projections.

6. Mark Teixeira – See top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball for Mark Teixeira’s projections.  This is actually a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Michael Young.  I call this tier, “Caterpillars.  Tier name will be explained in the Young blurb.  Feel free to read Young’s blurb then return here.  Hey, back already?!  Awesome!  I missed you.  Do you enjoy cuddling?”

7. Paul Konerko – He’s been wildly consistent.  In 2008 when he hit only 22 homers, it looks like the anomaly.  If I were to say 2012 is the year he gets old and it all falls apart, I’d just be guessing.  Last year he hit hardly any doubles, more line drives and singles, but he’s also getting smarter cutting his K-rate and increasing his walk rate.  The biggest hurdle Konerko is going to have this year is keeping his will to play as the team folds on Opening Day.  Maybe Hawk can work in some of his positivism in the negativity.  “This is the fastest a team has ever been out of contention!  You can put it on the board… We gone!”  2012 Projections:  85/29/100/.290

8. Lance Berkman – Let’s see if you can pick out the number that doesn’t belong, these are his homer totals from 2009 to 2011 — 25, 14, 31.  If you said 14, you’re a believer.  Feel free to draft Berkman.  If you said 31, you’re in my camp.  We will not be drafting Berkman.  If you said 27, that wasn’t a choice.  Berkman didn’t necessarily have an odd year for homers per fly balls.  He made solid contact, reducing his ground balls, but he’s 36 years old and missing Pujols.  That’s enough for me to avoid.  2012 Projections:  80/24/95/.275/3

9. Michael Young – This tier is filled with some older shorties, huh?  Go, shorty, it’s your 35th birthday; we gonna party like it’s your 35th birthday!  As I kinda said in the opening paragraph, the 1st basemen in 2012 are about to go caterpillar up in here and morph into a butterfly, but with that butterfly emerging from its cocoon Don Ameche-style, it needs to shed its caterpillar skin (can you tell I did well in my college science courses?).  This tier is gonna leave behind some caterpillar skin that will be released into the garden and turn into a new plant and/or Eric Hosmer.  (Again, not a science major.)  To explain all of this without the confusing metaphor, guys in this tier are getting old and will make way for guys in the next tier for next year.  As for Young, I don’t like him because he only gives average, and, while that’s been consistently solid in his career, he still got lucky last year and he’s due to hit a lot closer to .300 than .340.  Projections:  75/15/90/.310/5

10. Carlos Santana – Here comes the fun!  Can you feel the excitement?  It’s like that time we got together and did the crab circle dance in the pool in Cabo San Lucas and all our roommates were there except Zach and Ashley — but who needs them anyway?!  This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Butler.  I call this tier, “The crab circle in Cabo San Lucas.”  Is that too specific a reference?  You guys and three girl readers get it.  See the top 20 catchers for 2012 fantasy baseball to see Carlos Santana’s projections.

11. Eric Hosmer – I’m ignoring sophomore jinxes like I ignored when my whole sophomore class saw me get depantsed and I had on dirty tightie-whities.  I continue to stress that they were once all brown underwear that got bleached.  Hosmer is going to be special, and even if it’s not this year, he’s going to hold trade value through the season unless his bottom really falls out, which I don’t envision happening.  His commitment to stealing around ten bases will keep him from totally flopping.  He will be Joey Votto-lite this year.  How lite is the only question.  I don’t think it’ll be that lite.  BTW, you know who’s Billy Butler-lite?  Kirstie Alley.  2012 Projections:  85/25/95/.280/10

12. Michael Morse – I think Morse just had his best season, but I also don’t think he’s gonna fall like, say, Ryan Ludwick of a few years ago, to mention a player that was old for a prospect, broke out then went back to obscurity.  Speaking of which, when you get robbed in a parking garage and the security guard tells the police they didn’t hear anything, you tell them they’re more like obscurity!  Store it away for when it’s applicable.  Morse had the trappings* of a breakout but his health always got in the way.  I’m excited to watch the Nats this year and Morse should be smack dab in the middle of it.  *I have no idea if I used trappings right but it sounded pretty cool the way I just threw it out there, right?  2012 Projections:  80/27/90/.275/3

13. Michael Cuddyer – Gets away from Hubert H. Homerfree Dome and goes to Coors.  Boom goes the dynamite!  Or does it?  Cuddyer just had a solid season, and terrific when compared to the team around him.  Jack Wilson would’ve looked good in that Minnesota mucky muck last year.  Cuddyer hits a ton of ground balls and he’s not a huge homer threat.  I’d say if he repeats his 2011, it’s a win for him and his fantasy owners, especially since he has 2nd base eligibility in some leagues (17 games).  Check your rules first before you draft him for 2nd, then think about how you’re checking rules for fantasy baseball.  And you wonder why you have no success with the ladies.  2012 Projections:  75/22/85/.275/5

14. Mark Reynolds – His K-rate is kinda comical.  He’s a terrible real baseball player.  But real baseball is for real athletes.  What kind of crap is that?!  Give me a computer, an ergonomic chair and some Doritos, I’m playing fantasy baseball!  As long as Mini Donkey continues to hit 35 homers and steal 7-10 bases, he has solid fantasy value, just don’t draft Krispie Young, Adam Dunn or any other low average guys with him.  Actually, don’t draft Adam Dunn at all.  2012 Projections:  75/35/90/.230/7

15. Adam Lind – The reason why I still go back to Lind no matter how many times he kicks my metaphorical puppy is because he’s capable of 35+ homers.  Also, he got a bad rap in 2010 for being a guy that comes with a poor average, but he’s not that, y’all!  He’s around a .260 guy with neutral luck.  That’s a’ight, and a’ight is better than just a’ight but not quite a’ight a’ight.  Want a silly prediction that has no basis in science or fact?  Lind’s gonna be a top three finisher in 2012 for MVP.  2012 Projections:  90/32/105/.270 (<–crazy optimistic, but whatevs)

15 1/2. Billy Butler – I gave Butler a half ranking because he only has 11 games at 1st base.  In Yahoo leagues, you can place The Moob Man at 1st.  I’d use two hands so one moob doesn’t feel neglected.  Yes, Butler’s in the exciting tier, but I worry that Butler will only get 17 or less homers with a bad case of blimpotence.  But II, The Return of But, at 26 years old I think we can trust he’ll hover closer to 20 ding dongs.  Butler, “Did someone say ding dongs?!”  2012 Projections:  90/20/100/.300

16. Ryan Howard – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of the list.  I call this tier, “Some major question marks, but a chance for nice dividends.”  Howard will move in the rankings at some point in the preseason when we know exactly when he’s gonna return.  If he’s back by the end of April, he hits 25-30 homers and is worth stashing.  If he’s not due back until midseason, I wouldn’t even bother drafting him and would drop him off this list completely.  I don’t believe in DL’ing players for months in redraft leagues.  For example, think about how many years you drafted Brandon Webb waiting for him to return from injury.  Yeah, that worked out well.  2012 Projections:  70/28/100/.260 (returning on May 1st)

17. Mike Napoli – See the top 20 catchers for 2012 fantasy baseball to see Mike Napoli’s projections.

18. Ike Davis – Last year, Ike took so many hits on the DL; somewhere Tina Turner was smiling.  Davis says his ankle will be good to go for Spring Training.  I say, just keep him away from the Mets doctors.  From this tier, I’d say Davis has the biggest chance to shoot up the rankings for next year.  Or he could have one setback and miss another three months.  2012 Projections:  85/22/90/.280

19. Mark Trumbo – When I went over Albert Pujols’s signing, I also covered Trumbo’s question mark.  As long as Abreu, Double I and Kendrys are shooting the shizz and talking about the good old times, Trumbo’s either playing 3rd or in trouble of losing playing time.  3rd base would be great, but his defense might give Scioscia the gas face.  I really can’t see someone who gave Jeff Mathis 1360 plate appearances in 5 years playing Trumbo at third.  That’s a huge question mark.  If Trumbo can get 500 plate appearances, then I’d happily draft him. Remember a platoon player at catcher is doable for fantasy, but at 1st or even at corner you need stats.  Projections:  60/25/75/.260/7 (500 PAs)

20. Paul Goldschmidt – I already went over my Paul Goldschmidt fantasy.  I wrote it while rooting for Garfield from Parking Wars to boot a car.  2012 Projections:  75/27/85/.245/7

After the top 20 1st basemen, there’s a lot of names but these stand out:

Kendrys Morales – Might not be a bigger question mark on this entire list.  Ryan Howard could be out for a while, but if he returns, you should get decent production.  Kendrys might return and still be crizzap.  Or he might return and platoon with Abreu or Trumbo or Wells.  Or he might return and be valuable.  You got more variables than an episode of Mythbusters.  Boom!  I’m bigger on basic cable than Chumlee!  2012 Projections:  65/22/75/.290

Justin Morneau – This is one question mark that I’m not drafting anywhere.  This schmohawk can come to my house and make me a perfectly medium-rare steak with the most amazing compound butter and I won’t go near him because, after last year, his steak will probably give me an immediate heart attack.  2012 Projections:  60/17/75/.285

Gaby Sanchez – He (she?) can give you modest power and solid counting stats.  Plus, you can pretend you have a girl on your team.  You ask why he’s not ranked and I answer that he is.  He’s ranked just after Morneau.  Him and Morneau are a bit of a toss-up, but Morneau has an outside chance at bigger power numbers.  Gaby has a better chance of actually playing a full season.  2012 Projections:  65/20/85/.265/3

Freddie Freeman – I don’t look forward to drafting Freeman.  So much so, I won’t draft him.  So much so much so, I didn’t even rank him.  He’s not ranked.  He’s just blurbed here.  He’s too much James Loney for my taste.  He has a slightly off year on power and you’re gonna be lucky to get 17 homers.  Belch called and said burp.  2012 Projections:  60/19/75/.280/3

Yonder Alonso – I took all the prospect reports on Alonso and put through my supercomputer and out came, “Should develop into a 20+ homer hitter with a great eye.  Padres TV can save time by eliminating instant replay because he runs like he’s in slow mo.”  I liked Yonder a lot more when he was on the Reds with no starting job than on the Padres with a starting job.  It’s just so hard to get excited about a hitter’s upside in Petco.  2012 Projections:  55/16/70/.280

Justin Smoak – I’m letting someone else take the Smoak gamble this year.  Until he hits 25+ homers, I don’t want to mess with his .240-ish average.  Call me crazy.  You, “Crazy.”  2012 Projections:  55/18/65/.245

Carlos Pena – Looking for someone this year that can do what Adam Dunn did last year?  Look no further!  He signed with the Rays, but it doesn’t matter.  He is what he is everywhere he plays.  I will now slap myself hard across the face for saying a variation of “it is what it is.”  2012 Projections:  55/25/75/.210

Adam Dunn – Everyone seems to think Dunn is not, um, done.  Correction:  Everyone that did not own him last year.  I guess they want a piece of the frustration that others felt last year.  That’s like standing at the craps table and watching roll after roll where people lose and you’re like, “Now is the time to get in!”  No, it’s not.  There’s no reason why the table is going to turn for the better.  The big-bellied age quickly and poorly.  Don’t go near Dunn just because you lucked out not owning him last year.  And, if you did own him last year and want more, then you’re like Homer grabbing the donut no matter how many times the electrical current shocks him.  2012 Projections:  55/22/80/.220 (<–actually optimistic)

Anthony Rizzo – Because I couldn’t end the post on a sour note with Adam Dunn, here’s R to the izzo.  I already went over my Anthony Rizzo 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it while huffing.  It was also written before the trade to the Cubs, so the end about how I wanna take a chainsaw to Petco is irrelevant.  I don’t think we’ll see Rizzo until June at the earliest so in redraft leagues, I’d ignore him, but in keeper leagues I’d stash him.  He could hit 25 homers as soon as next year.  If he breaks camp with the Cubs, then it’s on like Steve Wiebe playing Donkey Kong.  2012 Projections:  30/10/45/.250/4 (in 300 ABs)

Brandon Belt – Okay, one more!  This is it though.  If Belt were guaranteed everyday playing time, I’d place him between Napoli and Davis.  Around 16 and a half.  Belt is capable of 25/10/.280, which would have him poised to be a top 5 1st baseman next year.  The problem is Bruce Bochy has a gigantic head, but a very small brain.  Hopefully he realizes Belt ties the entire Giants outfit together.  2012 Projections:  70/24/80/.280/10 (in 500 ABs)