Fantasy Baseball Advice

We’ve already went over the top 20 catchers for 2008; soon we’ll go over the top 20 2nd basemen for 2008, but right now we’re going over the top 20 1st basemen for 2008. It’s a look back, ya’ll! Don’t worry, soon we’ll look forward, but how you know where you at, if you don’t know where you been? Understand where I’m coming from? B-Real! Looking at the top 20 1st basemen is a lot more exciting than looking at the top 20 catchers for 2008. Because these 1st basemen can actually make a difference? Um, yeah. Dur. As previously noted on this blog, Hardball Times has already looked at our preseason top twenty 1st basemen — that I did on JANUARY 10TH, btw. (Sorry, for the caps, but it’s pretty impressive how right on I am considering when I did the predictions.) Well, now it’s our turn to hold up a reflective surface to our own list. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2008 and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

1. Albert Pujols - Going into 2008, Pujols had some question marks due to a lackluster (by his standards) 2007 and a balky elbow. Pujols took a high-grade tear and put up high-grade numbers. Ruth’s Chris USDA Prime, and ya know that! Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  110/40/115/.330/2, Final Numbers:  100/37/116/.350/7

2. Lance Berkman - The real difference between the preseason expectations and the actual numbers are the steals, but I’m going to paraphrase something Rudy says, “If speed is not a player’s game, you can’t count on any steals.” Which means you count on steals from Willy Taveras, you do not count on steals from Lance Berkman. Anything you get is a plus. Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  110/30/115/.290/5, Final Numbers:  114/29/106/.312/18

3. Mark Teixeira - I thought he’d put up almost exactly the numbers he did put up. Yet, I ranked him at #5 and he came in at #3. What does that tell you? 1st basemen numbers were down? Excellent, Daniel-san. Now catch me something bigger than a fly and put some Catsup on it. Preseason Rank #5, Preseason Predictions:  110/35/120/.305, Final Numbers: 102/33/121/.308/2

4. Aubrey Huff - There’s always a few guys that maintain their hot starts that I will never trust — Cliff Lee, Xavier Nady and Aubrey Huff, to name a few. You can own them; just don’t trust them. To paraphrase what I said earlier in the year, Aubrey Huff reminds me of Mike Lowell. Will he get 15 home runs or will he hit 30? Will he hit .250 or .300? Huff’s an enigma wrapped in a girl’s name. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  96/32/108/.304/4

5. Kevin Youkilis - I was so close in my preseason predictions (I switched Youuuuuuk’s Runs and RBIs because he switched from the top of the lineup to the sixth spot. If people think that’s cheating, here’s something for you), but Youuuuuuuuk jumping from 14th to 5th shows how truly Jason Kendall-weak the first basemen were this year. (This was the point of that Hardball Times article.) I haven’t gone over my research yet for 2009 conclusively, but I do believe 1st base will be a bit deeper next year. This will be something to watch. If your leaguemates overestimate the depth of the 1st basemen position, you could be sitting pretty if you reach for one early. We’ll go over this more during the winter. Preseason Rank #14, Preseason Predictions:  90/21/115/.290/3, Final Numbers:  91/29/115/.312/3

6. Miguel Cabrera - Looks like it was Cabrera that missed Olivo’s hugs more than the other way around. But, in the end, Miguel Cabrera gave about what he always gives minus some runs and average. He’ll probably be in my top ten for 2009. God, I can’t wait for the 2009 season. Is that weird? (Note: Cabrera gained 1st base eligibility during the season so he was only ranked for third basemen. The top twenty third basemen for 2008 will be here next week.) Preseason Predictions:  110/35/125/.315/4, Final Numbers:  84/37/127/.292/1

7. Ryan Howard - Frankly, I want Howard a lot higher than he’s ranked here. His major negative is his average, but you can outweigh that with some high average middle infielders and get exactly what you need from Howard, which is– a recipe for a deep-fried Twinkie? No. Power. Recognize! Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions:  100/50/140/.275, Final Numbers:  105/48/146/.251

8. Justin Morneau - Flyball rate stayed, well, down and the power never really came around this season. His “known” makes him seem more valuable than his actual production at this point. Seems like he’s destined to fall somewhere between five and ten in 1st basemen rankings. Preseason Rank #8, Preseason Predictions:  90/35/110/.275, Final Numbers:  97/23/129/.300

9. Adrian Gonzalez - He’ll prolly be ranked about here for the next five years. Unless he gets traded to Coors. Holy heffin’ hey! Imagine A-Gonz in Coors? Hey, Holliday, don’t worry about that slacker Atkins. I’m here to hit 45 home runs. You’re welcome. Oh, and I’m a chubby chaser. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  90/33/105/.280, Final Numbers:  103/36/119/.279

10. Carlos Delgado - From radio, to the video, to Arsenio… Tell me!  Yo, what’s the best case scenario for Delgado? This yeario, Fife. Preseason Rank #17, Preseason Predictions:  70/28/95/.260, Final Numbers:  96/38/115/.271/1

11. Prince Fielder - You can’t eat salad on a stick! Man up. Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  115/50/125/.285, Final Numbers:  86/34/102/.276/3

12. Jorge Cantu - In one of the best threads over in the Razzball forums, I named Cantu as one of my Fantasy MVPs. Poppycock, you say. Okay, but what the eff is poppycock and why are you saying it? When Hafner went down with I-ain’t-got-no-roids-itis and I wanted to commit Pronkicide, I grabbed Delgado or Cantu in just about all of my leagues. Mostly Cantu because he was more available. Anyway, he saved quite a few teams for me. I heart Cantu. Get over it. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  92/29/95/.277/6

13. Derrek Lee - His power really evaporated. There were doubles at the end of ‘07 that seemed to be forecasting a power comeback in ‘08, but it just never happened. Also, I find it fascinating that his runs are so down from my predictions considering the Cubs success this year. Since this is probably only fascinating to me, I’ll move on. Preseason Rank #6, Preseason Predictions:  110/30/115/.290/5, Final Numbers:  93/20/90/.291/8

14. Joey Votto - I steamed up my colored contacts talking about Votto a few times this year — keep Votto? Fo shotto. (Note: I didn’t rank most rookies in the preseason top 20s, but I did make some preseason predictions for rookies.)  Preseason Unranked, Preseason Predictions:  .285/20/75, Final Numbers:  69/24/84/.297/7

15. Jose Lopez - He was unranked, but on April 4th, I told you to pick up Lopez, when I said, “If you have an erection for longer than four hours after you pick up Lopez, you should go see a doctor. But he’s hitting number two on the Mariners. So, well, there’s that. Honestly, he’s young and he’s started off hot.” And that’s me quoting me! I’ll have to look at his numbers closer going forward, but I might like him next year (for 2nd base, obviously). Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 80/17/89/.297/6

16. Conor Jackson - At 26, his power took a step backwards? Who are you — Felipe Lopez? The only adverb I can think of for Conor Jackson is yawstipatingly. I prefer all of the guys ranked below him on this list, except for Loney. Why, Grey? Why so down? Well, random italicized voice, Conor Jackson is only ranked this high because he gave you 10 steals. That’s no reason to have a 1st baseman. You could’ve had an off-waivers Juan Pierre for one good week and got half of that. Unranked in Preseason, Final Numbers:  87/12/75/.300/10

17. Garrett Atkins - Watch your toes, everyone. Atkins is taking a step backwards. Home runs have gone from 29 to 25 to 21. In 2009, hello 17 home runs. (Note: Atkins gained 1st base eligibility during the season so he was only ranked for 3rd basemen. In fairness, if I had ranked him, I would’ve placed him higher than 17th.) Preseason Predictions:  85/34/115/.300, Final Numbers:  86/21/99/.286/1

18. Adam Dunn - I’m a huge fan of Dunn. Ain’t that apropos? His average took a hit, but his BABIP shows he was pretty unlucky this year. When a guy aims for .250 gets unlucky, it becomes a sub-.240 average. Zoinks! (Note: Dunn gained 1st base eligibility during the season so he was only ranked for outfielders. In fairness, if I had ranked him, I would’ve placed him higher than 18th.) Preseason Predictions:  100/45/110/.265/7, Final Numbers:  79/40/100/.236/2

19. James Loney - His preseason predictions and his final numbers speak a ton about the problems 1st basemen had this year. See I pegged him for 19th overall amongst 1st basemen and he came in at 19th, you would think his final numbers would be close to his preseason predictions, but his numbers were awful. We get it! 1st basemen numbers were down. School’s out, Alice Cooper. Preseason Rank #19, Preseason Predictions:  95/22/85/.315, Final Numbers:  66/13/90/.289/7

20. Carlos Pena - My instincts back in January were to lower him even further than the 11th place perch where I ranked him. As Malcolm Gladwell would say, “Blink, sucka!” Preseason Rank #11, Preseason Predictions:  85/22/80/.260, Final Numbers:  76/31/102/.247/1

Gerald Laird? Yeah, he’s serviceable. Jarrod Saltimbocca? He was enticing enough to get from the Braves and he’s wonderful with broccoli rabe. Taylor Teagarden? Grand slam yesterday. For his sixth HR in 12 games. Before you rush out to pickup Teagarden, see 1/18 of a centimeter after this period. Max Ramirez, the future at catcher for the Rangers, was called up on Monday night. This gives the Rangers three promising catchers, a fourth usable catcher and no pitchers. Let’s see, the last three World Champions have had Varitek, Pierzynski and one of The Flying Molina Bros. Usable pieces, for sure, but not exactly the cogs that made the offense work. Earth to the Rangers, wtf? Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ted Lilly - 7 IP, 1 hit allowed, 9 Ks. The Astros might officially be in a bit of a slump. No worries, Astros fans. Major League Baseball decided the Astros last homestand of the season will take place in Minute Maid Park, but can only be attended by fans showing up at the park in a Cubs jersey.

Ned Yost - Not really fantasy news other than to say the Brewers players have been simultaneously sucking and blowing for about two weeks now. Oh, and check out the poll on the right.

Matt Antonelli - First major league home run. Nick Tortelli still has zero.

Derrek Lee - First home run since August 22nd and the 2nd home run since July 27th. Now if he hits twenty more this week, all will be forgiven.

Brad Hennessey - 8 IP, 3 ER. A Diamondbacks team that is averaging about two runs a game for the last week made Hennessey look like cognac, but he’s really Mad Dog 20/20.

Chad Qualls - Got the save. If there was any doubt, he’s officially the Diamondbacks closer. Recognize!

Dontrelle Willis - 5 walks tell the story. The story is, “Don’t Pick Up Dontrelle.”

Juan Pierre - HR yesterday. Looks Rudy Gamble underestimated Juan Pierre.

Brandon McCarthy - Just when it seemed like he was starting to put something together, he hurt his finger. Probably be done for the season.

John Maine - Hoping to return to the Mets in the final week as their closer. Closing sounds like just the medicine a pitcher with an ailing shoulder needs.

Adrian Gonzalez - Another HR, for 4 in 5 games. Officially hot. Now if I only would’ve known to bench him for two months in the middle of the summer…

Hiroki Kuroda - 7 IP, 0 ER and 3 hits. This is exactly the kind of end of the season matchup you should be looking for. Team fighting for playoffs vs. Team deciding between Ohlendorf and Oh-who-gives-a-dorf.

Roy Oswalt threw his second consecutive shutout yesterday. In his last 32 1/3 innings, he’s been scoreless. Since the All-Star break, he has a 1.94 ERA in 10 starts. He just farted into a bottle and it sold at a Sotheby’s auction for $1.7 million. The cure for the common cold is in Oswalt’s passed wind! Oswalt’s one of the main reasons the Astros are late season contenders and all of this comes as the Cubs and Astros shutter their windows. They’ve been canceled for this Friday and Saturday with a good chance of Sunday being canceled too. In H2H (all leagues actually), you must fill-in your Cubs and Astros with guys that will be playing.  Also, I hope everyone who lives in the eye of the storm is safe. Razzball sends a giant umbrella the size of Prince Fielder’s backside your way. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Mark Ellis - Out the rest of the season with a torn labrum. This gives Eric Patterson a boost in value as he fills in for Ellis. He has speed and he is a middle infielder, do you need to know more? Rhetorical!

Adrian Beltre - Debating whether to shut it down for the season to have surgery on his torn ligament in his thumb. Guess he doesn’t want to miss out on the race to a .400 winning percentage.

Francisco Liriano - Pitched a season-high eight innings at just the right time. He should be up to speed for spring training next year and ready to put together a solid season. I’m sure he’ll be on everyone’s winter “Players to Watch” list. He might be on my “Players That Are On Everyone’s ‘Players to Watch’ List And Have Suddenly Become Overpriced” list.

B.J. Upton - Might be used as pinch hitter this weekend, but he’s not playing on Friday, according to Maddon ‘08.

George Sherrill - Will be back on Friday and thrust right into the closer’s role. If he’s out there and you need saves, there’s no reason not to grab him.

Brandon Morrow - 5 IP, 2 ER, while walking 4. Here was the erratic pitcher from the minors. This is closer to what I would expect going forward, rather than the number he did on the Yankees last week.

Adrian Gonzalez - 2 HRs. Wow, did he take two and a half months off or what? With these two home runs, he has 10 home runs since July 1st. He had 10 home runs in May. As Thigpen would say, “Bleh!”

Josh Hamilton - Day-to-day with a bruised foot. You really can’t complain. You were getting high on his supply all summer.

Eugenio Velez - Another two hit night. If you pick him up, it doesn’t mean you endorse him. You’re just using him for a couple of days. Maybe a week.

Matt Cain - He took a dump sometime in August and it’s been running down his leg ever since. I would not be counting on him the rest of the way.

Rich Harden - Got the win in the return as he was limited to 86 pitches. His velocity was down; his moxy was up. If he can get through three more starts, consider yourself lucky.

Jair Jurrjens - 6 IP, 4 ER and 10 Ks. The Ks are on the high side for him, but 6 IP with 3 to 4 earned runs is about what should be expected.

David Price - The Orioles are hinting he might start the September 23rd game. Presumably, after doing the weather for The Early Show.

Francisco Rodriguez - Tied Bobby Thigpen’s Major League record for saves. Bobby Thigpen watched the record-tying save from his personalized booth at his local Outback Steakhouse. When asked about what the record has meant to him, he said, “Bleh!” When pressed he said, “Bleh! Bleh!” When asked to elaborate, he burped.

Mike Jacobs hit two home runs yesterday. Baseball Tonight’s Chris Singleton said Jacobs could hit “a lot” of home runs if he stayed healthy. You know what? Singleton has “a lot” of insight. Funny thing happened on the way to June, Mike Jacobs has thirteen home runs. More than Fielder, Tex, Morneau, Pena and Miguel Cabrera. Now I’m not saying Jacobs will be more valuable than these guys, but Jacobs is way more affordable in a trade. He’s a lot like Carlos Pena in ‘07. Both showed power, but lacked consistency and health. Poor average — check. Clouds of doubt about what they’ll be worth at the end of the year — check, check. Both playing in front of near capacity crowds (for a WNBA game) — check. Pena’s last year owners can also attest that if you own him, you’re better off holding onto him, cause you’ll never get value for him. But if you don’t own him, he’ll cost a lot less than the big boys. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Homer Bailey - About to be called up. Remember when he was their most hyped prospect? Since then, Bruce and Votto have had great starts, they acquire Volquez, and Cueto has a spot in the rotation. Don’t expect much from Bailey. He doesn’t really deserve the call-up as he hasn’t corrected his biggest flaw - wildness. He walked 29 in 66 IP at Triple-A. For Bailey’s sake, we hope the expectations are set closer to Fogg than Volquez.

Mark Prior - Shoulder surgery for Prior causing him to miss the rest of the season. In other news, taco diarrhea burns.

Tim Hudson - I was watching the game when he left with his leg injury. It didn’t look that bad, but then again I get these rashes on my leg and I’ve diagnosed myself as having The African Gong-Gong Disease and prescribed myself a wet towelie and two Little Orphan Orange Otter Pops, so I may not be the best person to ask. Leg problems will probably shelve him for a week. Best case scenario, he misses two starts and returns fine. Worst case, he returns too soon and really messes things up by favoring his injured leg. This is some Trapper John, M.D. suspense!

Brain Bannister - One run in 7+ IP. He looks like a good guy to not pick up in mixed leagues.

Troy Glaus - Hit a HR yesterday. LaRussa says Glaus is going to start hitting more home runs now that the weather is heating up. What you need to ask yourself, is this sober LaRussa talking or drunk LaRussa? I think it’s sober LaRussa.

Ian Snell - If you have him still in your lineup, I’m assuming there was a death in the family and you haven’t check your team in a while. Or you’re just dopey. Either way, my condolences.

Nate McLouth - Ended May with a .279 average. That’s a better representation than April’s .330. Maybe Karabell’s intern misread his refrigerator magnets.

Chase Utley - 20th HR/6th steal. I picked him for NL MVP, so I obviously believe. He’s also one of the few guys that I don’t have on any team, but still can’t root against. Take that schadenfreude (Word of the Day)!

Shawn Hill - Gave up an ill-timed home run to… Who am I kidding? No one cares what Shawn Hill did yesterday.

Chad Tracy - Batting fourth, hitting his second home run three days. CoJack will be out at least a week with a quad strain.

JR Towles - Batting .145 with five hits in all of May.

Bartolo Colon - Now 3-0. I still wouldn’t go near him with a three foot churro. (Only partly because waving a three foot churro near Bartolo would be similar to going to a grizzly bear observatory wearing nothing but bikini briefs made of Marshmallow Fluff…. Talk about a Fluffernutter — oofa!)

Alexei Ramirez/Alexi Casilla - Both can provide some value if you’re weak at MI. Also, if one of them books two dates on the same night, they could pull the old switcheroo and send the other guy out on one of the dates, which is a lot easier than bringing both dates to the same place and then running back and forth switching outfits ala Alex P. Keaton.

Adrian Gonzalez - I’m not really surprised he’s still hitting bombs, but I’d like to see him hit them in July and August.

Carlos Beltran - HRs in 2 straight games to boost his season total to 7. If you invested a top pick in him, you’ve got to be hoping this is the start of one of his streaks.

Johnny Cueto - I said I wouldn’t write about him again until he proved himself. Well, 5 IP of no-hit ball pulled me back in, but he’s still giving up fly balls (10) and not making enough people miss (3). Love the upside, but don’t get too excited. Worth holding onto, but don’t be afraid to bench him if the matchup is bad.

JJ Putz - Another horrendous night. 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning. Who does he think he is - Carlos Silva?

Ryan Church - Hit a home run after returning from his concussion. Talking about the concussion, Church had this to say, “I really know how Snuka felt after that Piper’s Pit.”

Dioner Navarro’s batting in the .370s. Crapoli’s got ten home runs. Olivo’s not missing Miguel Cabrera’s hugs as much I thought he would. JR Towles seems at least a year away. AJ Pierzynski’s doing well — for him. Benjie Molina’s doing well — for Victor Martinez. Victor Martinez is doing well for Nick Punto.  I’ve split my teams between Navarro, Crapoli, Olivo and McCann. So far the team that has struggled most offensively is McCann. “Well, ain’t that the weirderiest of things, Grey?” Not really. And weirderiest isn’t a word. I overspent on McCann costing the rest of my team. Moral of the story. Punt catcher aka trade away any catcher that can fetch you something. So your homework assignment is to trade away Victor Martinez. If someone believes he’s going to turn it around, then turn them around, bend them over and… Well, get a piece for your team that you need. Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball players to buy and sell:

BUY

Rickie Weeks -His current 40 runs, 7 HR, and 9 SB are comparable with Upton and Phillips. His 19 RBI are a casualty of hitting 1st on an NL team. While he hit .235 last year, he’s improved all his fundamentals, his K rate is down from 28% to 21%, but his BABIP is .229, really low for a guy his speed. He should be able to hit at least .260 the rest of the way. Assuming, of course, he stays healthy. His .201 average lets you buy low. (BTW, if those numbers above spun your head a little, just take our word for it. He’s due.)

Jeremy Guthrie - 12 starts, 10 are Quality Starts. “Well, jeez, Grey, that’s a fluke, right?” Last year, he had an ERA of 3.70 in 175 IP. Don’t make me try and guess your password and pickup Guthrie for you.

Prince Fielder - Sure, the only thing up this year is his BBs. (That’s Boca Burgers, not walks.) So what are you worried about? He’s not fat enough to hit home runs? As Richard Simmons might say, “He’s got saddlebags like I have handbags, girlfriend!”

Alex Gordon - I was really counting on him coming out the gate hitting to his ability. Well, that didn’t happen, so if you don’t have him, I’d go out and get him because he had a solid 2nd half last year.

James Shields - They took the “Devil” out of their name. You don’t have to be scared of them anymore.

Chone Figgins - I don’t like all speed guys personally, but I also ask for three plates because I don’t like my condiments mixing. You gonna do everything I do? I know Figgins’s DL’d for his legs. I also know his owners are considering dropping him and would take just about anything for him. If you have an open DL spot, there’s no reason why you shouldn’t make a run at him. Just know you may have to sit on him for three weeks to a month, but it’s a long season. That burst of speed in July may be exactly what you need.

Kevin Kouzmanoff - Another sophomore (the “o” is silent, like when you make love to your woman — oofa!) that is struggling more than I would’ve liked. But he came on (your woman while you were playing fantasy baseball– ouch!) last year, and can do it again.

Justin Huber - Psyche! Just making sure you’re paying attention.

Jorge Campillo - Left his last start with a finger boo-boo, so I was going to leave him off The List, but I’m mentioning him so you keep an eye on him for his next start.

Dan Wheeler - I’ll reenact a comment from late March, “The Nats say Cordero will be back next week, should I bother with Rauch?”

SELL

Joba Chamberlain - Expectations are unrealistically high. When everyone’s zigging, what do you do? Zag, man, zag. Don’t, obviously, trade him for Tony Pena Jr. and a walk-on part on Gossip Girl.

Jay Bruce - If you got him off waivers and your offense is already stacked, you could move him for a very valuable pitcher. Bruce probably won’t bat .500 for the rest of the year. Cust kayin’.

Conor Jackson - Mark Grace, who I think is the best color man currently working, watches Conor and says, “He looks a lot like me.” Gracie’s got a point.

James Loney - Gracie looks at Loney and he says, “Loney wishes he were me.”

Ryan Ludwick - The Queen’s Assassin aka Vincent can hit 25 home runs. He’s at 13. You do the math.

Carlos Gonzalez - I popped a zit into my bathroom mirror and it spelled out, “Good prospect, but little light on the seasoning. Has value in AL-only.”  What other fantasy baseball ‘pert oozes this kind of knowledge?

Adrian Gonzalez - He trends to be a 1st half player, but he doesn’t have enough trends that support me selling him for fifty pence on the pound. Get value, or hold onto him.

Ben Sheets - “Maybe I didn’t say this aloud to all of youse, but the guy can easily” search that phrase on Google and you’ll see why I’m saying to sell. BTW, in that post you find, I’m remarkably brilliant. Prescient to a tee. Mustachioed to a fault. Only the David Murphy and Justino German blurbs seem slightly off and let’s be real, neither of those things really hurt you much. *pats self on back*  Self replies, “Don’t touch me.”