I have to keep this short, because after the jump is going to be the longest post you’ve ever seen in your life. How do I know all the posts you’ve seen to compare this one to? Because I’m sitting behind you. *waves* Hey! I’ve given you the top 10 for 2018 fantasy baseball, top 20 for 2018 fantasy baseball and top 20 catchers for 2018 fantasy baseball. All projections included are mine, and where I see tiers starting and stopping are included. Let’s do this! Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2018 fantasy baseball:
1. Paul Goldschmidt – Went over him in the top 10 for 2018 fantasy baseball.
2. Freddie Freeman – Went over him in the top 20 for 2018 fantasy baseball.
3. Anthony Rizzo – Went over him in the top 20 for 2018 fantasy baseball.
4. Cody Bellinger – Went over him in the top 20 for 2018 fantasy baseball.
5. Joey Votto – Went over him in the top 20 for 2018 fantasy baseball.
6. Jose Abreu – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Hosmer. I call this tier, “This Is Why I’m Hot lyrics.” If you Google ‘This Is Why I’m Hot lyrics,’ Google replies, “Are you serious?” If you click, “Yes, I’m serious.” Google responds, “This Is Why I’m Hot, This Is Why I’m Hot, This Is Why…Continue?” If you click to continue, Google adds, “This Is Why I’m Hot, This Is Why I’m Hot, This Is Why I’m Hot, This Is Why–Seriously, how long do you need me to go on with this?” By the tier name, I mean, you should know what you’re getting from all of these guys. As for Abreu, I wanted to slide him into the 2nd round’s DMs. Honestly, you could call this guy Jose Votteu and be about 95% accurate if you’re saying they’re around the same fantasy value. Abreu will give you a safer floor for power, and Votto will give you a better average and a few more steals. Pretty close though, and this is why he’s hot. 2018 Projections: 92/32/104/.296/2 in 625 ABs
7. Edwin Encarnacion – Epitome of the “This Is Why I’m Hot lyrics” tier. Sure, maybe Encarnacion hits .220 with 15 homers and completely bombs, in the bad way, and bad as in bad, not bad as in good, but you’re just guessing Edwin’s going to collapse. There is nothing to point to saying he won’t just hit 35-40 HRs and .250-.260 once again. 2018 Projections: 92/36/109/.253/1 in 561 ABs
8. Eric Hosmer – The “This Is Why I’m Hot lyrics” tier should be Votto until Hosmer. If Hosmer hits 33 HRs and .315 this year and does what we expect from Votto, and Votto turns around and hits 25 HRs, .285 and what we expect from Hosmer, no one would be shocked, especially after my spoiler. Hosmer actually is coming at a small discount in drafts I’ve seen so far. Here’s what I will say when Hosmer signs, “I made the case last year that Hosmer was Joey Votto Jr. I called him Kangaroo Embryo. I just thought of a kangaroo wearing a Kangol, but I’ve never thought about an alligator wearing an Izod shirt, I’ll have to discuss this with my shrink. At one point, Wil Myers said he’d move to the outfield for Eric Hosmer to come to the Padres, and I thought to myself, “If I were Hosmer, I’d tell Myers to please not do me any favors.” San Diego is like the Trojan Horse of cities (for baseball and just visiting). It’s like this, “Oh, man, San Diego is gorgeous. What’s this, 77 degrees every day? I can get used to this!” Five minutes later, “I am bored out of mind.” Five minutes after, “Damn, can we get out of here?” Ten minutes after that, “If I see one more white person in flip-flops I’m going to readily embrace going to Tijuana.” Any hoo! Hosmer isn’t exactly a home run hitter. His fly balls were goofy low last year for a guy with 25 homers. He was the third lowest for fly balls (22.2%), fourth highest ground balls and the 29th lowest for Hard Contact. He does hit a decent amount of line drives, and feels like a 23-26 homer guy with a few more fly balls. He might be Kangaroo Embryo this year, but to emulate Joey Votto Jr. he’s going to need to elevate the ball more.” And that’s me quoting future me! UPDATE: Here’s my Eric Hosmer fantasy after he signed with the Padres. 2018 Projections: 83/24/95/.288/5 in 593 ABs
9. Rhys Hoskins – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Mancini. I call this tier, “Love the upside! Dot dot dot. Others might as well.” By the tier name, I mean that I’ve seen Hoskins go extremely high in drafts, in front of guys like Edwin and Hosmer. To paraphrase Eminem, my drafts gone crazy! Sorry, Charlie Culberson, but there’s risk and there’s reward, and at a certain point the risk is going to outweigh the reward. At top 35 overall? You’ve found the spot where there’s too much risk. Top 50 overall? Sure, what the hey. I know, sounds like quibbling, but you’re the one quibbling, you quibbler! In the minors for the Phillies, there’s some goofy home run friendly parks. Like Coors in an anti-gravity chamber. There, Hoskins had around a 19% HR/FB rate. Sure, he was younger, but it was also the minors where every third pitcher is a garbage can that resembles John Lackey with painted on teeth. With the Phils, Hoskins had a 31.6% HR/FB. I don’t know, over-the-internet friend. This feels a little high. So, he hit 18 HRs in 50 games last year, and he’s not a 54 homer guy. Fine. Everyone knew that, but top 35 overall feels like people think it might be possible. Player A: 75/38/85/.246/2; Player B: 80/35/94/.262/4. Any guesses? Player B is Steamer projections for Hoskins for 2018; Player A is Logan Morrison last year. All this said, I do like Hoskins, but don’t go nuts with yourself. I go further on Hoskins in the video, as well. 2018 Projections: 76/33/98/.271/3 in 544 ABs
10. Miguel Sano – There’s another way to look at the tiers. Votto to Edwin, then Hosmer to Myers, then Gallo and Mancini separate. What this means in the big picture is all of these guys are close. We’re splitting hairs, if we didn’t have the foresight to use conditioner to avoid split ends. Sano has easy 40-homer power, but a 36% K-rate in his career is obscene, and not in a good way like your dreams with Margot Robbie. I know everything Sano hits is hard, I get the comparisons to Judge, but 40/.240 is not incredibly better than 24/.288/5, i.e., Hosmer. Plus, Sano’s track record of 40 homers is nil, zilch, nilch. 2018 Projections: 88/40/102/.242 in 522 ABs
11. Wil Myers – He might be the highest ranked guy that I legit dread owning for long stretches of time. He’s a 30/20 guy. This is fantabulous! He also seems to hit .190 or below for months each season. This is always funny to me (not really funny). Every preseason, people take great pains to dig in on players, looking at their overall numbers more than anything. They forget what it’s like to own a guy that hits 1 homer for 50 days while hitting .175. If you remove Myers’ April and September, he hit .209 in 359 ABs for four months. This tier is sounding negative AF, but I really do like these guys. That’s why there’s a “Dot dot dot” in the tier name. There’s some extenuating circumstances. 2018 Projections: 82/31/72/.251/16 in 563 ABs
12. Joey Gallo – Sano is going so far before Gallo in drafts I’ve seen thus far. I’m guilty of this too, but to a much smaller degree. This is a weird pattern that occurs in fantasy baseball (prolly everything). We prefer what we haven’t seen yet. I even went over it in my Paul DeJong sleeper. We’ve seen Gallo hit 40+ HRs and .209, so we figure that’s what he’s going to do. Sano has never remotely come close to 40 HRs — he’s never even hit 30 HRs! — but we want Sano so much more than Gallo. In the end, they’re likely the same thing. 2018 Projections: 81/40/93/.221/5 in 506 ABs
13. Trey Mancini – Already gave you a Trey Mancini sleeper. It was written while in an elevator with Solange Knowles. 2018 Projections: 79/27/91/.297/2 in 567 ABs
14. Justin Smoak – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Bell. I call this tier, “Atlas in a Chinese finger trap.” You know that image (statue) of Atlas carrying the world? Well, with this tier, I feel like Atlas stuck in a Chinese finger trap. Every time I think one player, say, Smoak, can’t repeat last year (or will repeat last year as with Miggy), I think the opposite, and the other finger tightens into the trap, and I’m stuck. This is a very difficult tier to love and/or hate. As for Smoak, how good or bad are the Blue Jays, you ask with those soft, hazel doe eyes. Well, Bambi, I can answer you with another question, how good or bad do you think their three-hole hitter, Justin Smoak, is? Smoak’s previous season looks like strides were made by cutting down on strikes. Maybe his strides were at the plate for less strikes — “How about you ‘tries’ to use other keys?” That’s my keyboard back-talking me. — is an aberration. If I had to guess, I’d say yes. He didn’t go from a 32.8% K-rate guy to 20.1% in one year at the age of 30. Things we can point to, however, he doesn’t hit cheap homers, his fly balls, HR/FB% and Hard Contact are repeatable. He swung at 4% less balls outside the strike zone, cutting his overall swinging strike rate by almost 4% too. He also still swung at the same number of balls inside the zone. So, he didn’t get gun shy, he figured out what to swing at. That’s a quantifiable difference, and one that has me excited for him, even if he was unrecognizable last year to previous ones. 2018 Projections: 78/32/89/.261 in 512 ABs
15. Miguel Cabrera – As my dad starts to get in touch with his own mortality, he’s doing little things that make me think he’s regretting some decisions he’s made. He’s inviting me on trips, to which I’m totally Cat’s in the Cradle’ing him with, “Sorry, I don’t have time now.” Just the other day, he sent me a picture of myself as a baby in the hospital. My big takeaway from the pic of one-day-old Grey? Already handsome AF! My other takeaway, I don’t recognize myself. That’s weird. It’s like the beginning of a sci-fi movie, “Who Is Baby Me?” Any hoo! I bring this up now, because I don’t recognize Miggy anymore. The projections don’t hate him, but he’s not getting any younger (surprise!) and he’s only played healthy once in the last three years. The other two years, he hit 18 and 16 HRs. It’s crazy to me that I’ve ranked Miggy below Smoak, but just looking at their numbers and being objective, after Googling to see if I mean ‘subjective’ or ‘objective,’ I’ve landed on ranking Miggy here. 2018 Projections: 71/23/75/.281 in 434 ABs
16. Ryan Zimmerman – Last year Grey, “Ryan Zimmerman is the crummiest of the crumb bums I’ve ever sneered at.” This year Grey, “Am I really about to project Zimmerman for a .270, 30-homer season?” Yeah, I don’t know. Every time I, Atlas, try to pull a 30-homer season out for Zimmerman, the other finger tightens with, “He’s been hitting ~15 homers for the last three years previously, and now he’s 33 years old.” There were some line drive rate gains made, but so many other numbers aren’t coalescing well enough for me. 2018 Projections: 73/24/84/.264/1 in 497 ABs
17. Carlos Santana – He’s like Wil Myers without the 20 steals. There are huge swathes of time during the season, you just can’t with Santana. Here’s what I said when he signed, “Carlos Santana was signed by the Phils. Did Carlos Santana ever have a song called, “Harumph?” Cause he’s making me harumph all over the place. Doesn’t Hoskins play 1B? Will Santana move to 3rd? I agree, Maikel hasn’t been great, but he’s too young to give up on. Maybe Santana plays outfield? Hoskins plays outfield? Maybe they juggle left field? Maybe they juggle balls hit to them in left field? Maybe they’re juggalos? I got questions, y’all! The scenario of Hoskins in the outfield seems most likely with Franco getting pushed down the order, but not out of the lineup entirely. This might be something to watch in the spring with The Jacked Up Jew, and how he manages his new Latin classic rock guitarist. As for Santana, his stats last year look like that of an aging slugger. Carlos Santana’s gone from Oye Como Va to a hard-of-hearing Latino, ‘Oye come again?’ His average home run distance from 2016 to 2017 came down ten feet, but Citizens Flank might help a little. His line drive rate went up, but his fly balls are going nowhere, and his Hard Contact was down. He’s even seeing more pitches inside the zone, because people just aren’t scared of him anymore. His stats don’t scream, ‘The end is nigh,’ but they are whispering, ‘Soon, my pretty.’” And that’s me quoting me! 2018 Projections: 74/24/81/.257/4 in 552 ABs
18. Josh Bell – The ball is wrapped so tight… Audience refrain, “How tight is it?” It’s so tight Josh Bell looked like a 15-homer hitter in the minors, and swatted 26 homers last year. By the way, the Bell Swat sounds like an unsanctioned Stanford experiment. “If you ring a bell in a freshman’s ear for 18 hours straight, they will urinate themselves. Assuming no bathroom breaks are allowed.” Bell might be on the cusp of becoming the new Carlos Santana — you can call him, Coheed and Cambria — or he’s going to revert to the 15-homer guy we thought he was. I’m taking the over, but conservatively. 2018 Projections: 71/24/87/.268/2 in 521 ABs
19. J.T. Realmuto – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Posey. I call this tier, “They’re catchers, homey.” As for Realmuto, went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2018 fantasy baseball.
20. Buster Posey – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2018 fantasy baseball.
21. Matt Olson – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Desmond. I call this tier, “Fleshlight or sock?” This tier is filled with players that are going to stimulate you in the most glorious ways or they’re going to make you feel like you’ve put your penis into a shoe. For our five girl readers, you’re gonna have to take my word for it. Not’s so good! As for Olson, can Allahson lead us to the promised land, or will he make us feel like we’re watching the Promised Land movie with Matt Damon which was awful? My guess is Olson won’t continue his pace of one home run every one-point-five at-bats. Last year, he was hitting so many home runs, his BABIP was .238, yet he still hit .259. For a guy shaped like a donut hole, that doesn’t fully compute. Seems like a good bet to hit 30+ home runs, or fall into a platoon because Billy Beane gets annoyed on his treadmill. I go over Olson more in the video, as well. 2018 Projections: 64/34/70/.231/1 in 487 ABs
22. Ian Desmond – Hard to picture Desmond doing as poorly as he did last year in Coors again, but it was hard to imagine him doing it last year, and, yet, he did it. My hope is Desmond plays outfield, McMahon gets 1B and both of them succeed. Nope, I don’t hope for world peace, I hope for that. 2018 Projections: 55/17/51/.261/13 in 461 ABs
23. Matt Carpenter – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Bour. I call this tier, “You get a 20-homer season! You get a 20-homer season! Everyone gets a 20-homer season! Insert Oprah GIF.” Tier name is self-explanatory. You can’t throw a rock and not hit a 20-homer 1st baseman. I told you it was self-explanatory, that’s why I reexplained it. You’re welcome! As for Carpenter, he’s on the Cardinals and hits a lot of bloops that look like a bubble car, so how is he not the Pope? You can’t figure it out either, don’t lie. 2018 Projections: 84/22/59/.252/2 in 464 ABs
24. Kendrys Morales – He’s that young, scrappy upstart in the middle of the Jays’ lineup. Ya know, the guy about to turn 35. The Jays are like the teenager, who is riding the train for free, and, to avoid the ticker taker, they go station to station. And that is the only time the Jays will ever be compared to teenagers. 2018 Projections: 68/25/80/.253 in 541 ABs
25. Jay Bruce – He seems a year or two away from becoming Mike Napoli. Let’s hope Jay Bruce’s mom has nice cans! 2018 Projections: 77/30/89/.244/1 in 530 ABs
26. Marwin Gonzalez – I was expecting to look at Marwin and think, “Bleh,” then, after a beat, think, “Who am I, Dracula?” Well, if I’m Dracula, Gonzalez is my express pass to Marwinvania! And that’s me sucking blood from the rock of pun. 2018 Projections: 63/20/76/.273/5 in 438 ABs
27. Ryan McMahon – Went over him already in my Ryan McMahon fantasy. I typed it with my cankles. UPDATE: McMahon is now doubtful to make Opening Day roster. So, I got this bread that I call OH, and I got this meat I call EL, and I’m going on a picnic with Ryan McMahon and feeding him some EL OH EL’s. Yo, seriously, the Rockies are stupid, yo. Why can’t they ever play a rookie 1st baseman? They put their hand on the Bible and swear to Todd Helton they’d only play old doodes at 1st? I need to know! UPDATE 2: He made the roster! Now what does this mean for Ian Desmond? Because I sorta drafted Ian Desmond everywhere. Can the Rockies make like Frank Sobotka and release CarGo? 2018 Projections: 61/19/69/.267/5 in 424 ABs
28. Ryon Healy – Here’s what I said when he was traded, “I was strongly considering writing a Ryon Healy sleeper post, but consider this here is that <–excellent grammar! Last year, Healy hit 25 homers an average of 411.1 feet. That’s 15th best in the majors. Average home run distance doesn’t move the pants compass due north, but when I’m thinking about someone going to now play their home games in Safeco, it’s a solid indication. Not that surprising he had some giddy in up-jump-the-boogies because he was playing half his games in the placenta of the Grand Canyon called the Oakland Coliseum. Something that is odd, and I’m going to write it off as an anomaly, but the Coliseum was a positive for offense last year (Safeco was still not good, per usual). Long story made longer, I think the move for Healy is a push. His 15.1 HR/FB% looks repeatable, and his fly ball rate. All his peripherals actually look repeatable, and he hit 25 HRs in 149 games last year, after hitting 13 HRs in 2015 in almost exactly half the number of games. Doode’s a machine. Unfortch, it’s not a 45-homer machine, but more like a cheap Kyle Seager machine. That’s worth drafting though, as long as he gets out of his current projected nine-hole.” And that’s me quoting me! 2018 Projections: 61/24/72/.261/1 in 471 ABs
29. Yuli Gurriel – If I ranked players at the end of September, I likely would’ve put Gurriel lower, but after watching him in the playoffs, I boosted him up. Or as he’d say, the prayoffs. No, his Asian dig didn’t make me boost him, though I’ve heard if you dig long enough you can get to China. I was impressed with his at-bats during the postseason. Yes, small sample size, but what he did during October was essentially what he did all season too. UPDATE: Had hamate bone surgery and out for 5-6 weeks, according to the Astros, which means he’ll miss 8-10 weeks and never look same. Okay, being negative, but this isn’t good news no matter how you slice it. It being his hand. For his sake, hopefully his doctor isn’t Asian. 2018 Projections: 62/17/71/.284/3 in 441 ABs
30. Justin Bour – Can a cleanup hitter on a major league team only get 65 RBIs? The Padres have been trying to answer this question for a few years and now the Marlins are in the hunt. 2018 Projections: 57/25/70/.260/1 in 466 ABs
31. Eric Thames – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Bird. I call this tier, “BCS vs. RCS.” In this instance, the BCS isn’t an organization that infuriates people for putting their alumni team in the Massengill Bowl in Santa Fe. It’s Best Case Scenario vs. Realistic Case Scenario. The BCS for each of these guys would catapult them above a tier or two above them, but the RCS has them showing flashes, and being this valuable. As for Thames, he went from being Chris Shelton in April to being Chris Shelton in every month. Now, I’m not even sure he’s an everyday player, unless the Brewers are playing the Reds. Reds play on the Ohio River and Thames is a river, so I’m currently auditing a SABR course to find out if there’s any correlation. 2018 Projections: 68/28/61/.243/5 in 439 ABs
32. Albert Pujols – Last year, Pujols had 363 ABs in the three hole and 230 ABs in the cleanup slot. He did have 101 RBIs, but how many runs? C’mon, the Angels were stacked in the bottom of their order, right? *whispers ‘no’* Pujols had 53 runs last year. Appropriately, below Pujols was crap. Because it is required Shohei Ohtani is mentioned in every fantasy post this year, Pujols will also lose 30-50 ABs this year if the Sciosciapath goes with Ohtani at DH, and Cron at 1B. I picture Pujols getting some 1B starts too, when Ohtani DH’s. 2018 Projections: 61/24/88/.248/2 in 528 ABs
33. C.J. Cron – He’s the only guy in this tier who should have a starting job, but when Ohtani DHs, Pujols might play 1B. Then again, Cron should’ve started for the last three years and hasn’t. So, put should in one hand, and drop trou and do a dookie in the other hand, and you got only one hand with something in it. Watch The Sciosciapath actually play Cron this year, because Cron’s about to hit arbitration next year. I can’t wait for the Ken Burns 17-hour documentary about how Scioscia had dementia for the last ten years. UPDATE: Traded to the Rays. This is great news for Cron since he’ll no longer have to fight The Sciosciapath’s worst instincts….Actually, might be The Sciosciapath’s best instinct all those years to bench Cron, which is still good news for Cron. Finally, Cron gets to become Napoli away from The Sciosciapath. 2018 Projections: 64/25/71/.241/3 in 533 ABs
34. Hanley Ramirez – Maybe it’s the ultimate hedge, but don’t you love how I didn’t know what to make of this tier, and projected most of them for almost the same numbers? Pretty sneaky, ‘pert! UPDATE: With the signing of Just Dong, Hanley’s going to have to play 1st base, which means it will take one throw into the first base line for Hanley to lose his arm. 2018 Projections: 62/20/71/.265/2 in 441 ABs
35. Chris Davis – Best case scenario? 50+ homers and a return to his previous glory. More realistic scenario is a 76-year-old Boog Powell hitting 50+ homers, and Chris Davis running Boog Powell’s BBQ shack. 2018 Projections: 61/27/72/.220/1 in 462 ABs
36. Yonder Alonso – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Indians. There’s career years, then there’s what Alonso just had. He had all the years of his career jammed into one year. If Alonso hit 28 home runs last year because it was a walk year, after regularly hitting 5-7 homers a year, I have a great question: why didn’t he do this any other year? If we’re to believe it’s a contract year thing, then we have to believe he was sandbagging for ten years, only to turn it on last year. That strains under the weight of incredulity.” And that’s me quoting me! I also go over him further in the video. 2018 Projections: 60/20/66/.263/2 in 428 ABs
37. Logan Morrison – This tier could also be considered, “Could hit anywhere from 18-40 homers and .205-.250.” Or at least that defines LoMo. UPDATE: Signed with the Twins to DH, and force Miguel Sano to roll out to 3rd base every day, which could help him lose between 190 and 210 calories a day. So, technically, LoMo is also the Jillian Michaels of the Twins, and Sano is the biggest loser. 2018 Projections: 61/23/67/.239/2 in 461 ABs
38. Greg Bird – The projections for Bird from Steamer — 30+ HRs, .254 average — look remarkably close to what everyone was expecting from him last year. Ya know, before he pulled a Kotchman, and missed seven-eighths of the season with a boo-boo. Maybe I’m being too conservative, maybe I’m too much like my aunt, not bold enough, but Bird burned me good last year, and I’m anxiously drafting him. Not anxiously as in highly anticipated, but anxiously like I’m biting my nails. UPDATE: Out for two months with a broken spur in his foot. Guess that’s also why he didn’t fight in Vietnam. 2018 Projections: 50/17/57/.244/1 in 326 ABs
Hoping Greg Bird is not going to pull a Kotchman for another full season. pic.twitter.com/mLHeIDl6Mf
— Razzball (@Razzball) March 26, 2018
39. Neil Walker – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Belt. I call this tier, “I must’ve signed some sort of contract that said I had to rank these guys.” As for Walker, when he signed, I said, “Nothing, because no one is signing anywhere! C’mon, Mets, sign some of these scrubs!” Obviously, if some of these guys sign I will adjust their rankings and projections. UPDATE: Signed with the Yankees, so the Mets would be totally jealous. Here’s the Mets, “Giancarlo? Okay, whatever. Sonny Gray? La di da! Gary Sanchez? We’ve got d’Arnaud! Aaron Judge? We’ve got d’Arnaud! Neil Walker? YOU’VE TORN OUT OUR HEART!” Walker will play 2nd until Gleyber is officially ready, and fill-in for Bird if/when he gets hurt. 2018 Projections: 58/18/63/.261/2 in 487 ABs
40. Joe Mauer – He’s really fallen far from the year Rotoworld ranked him in the top ten overall. Wait, that was only two years ago. 2018 Projections: 75/8/51/.273/2 in 532 ABs
41. Brandon Belt – This ranking is kinda sexy if you think about how the Belt is way below the Pujols. Thinking about Belt any other way is not sexy. 2018 Projections: 65/17/62/.253/3 in 449 ABs
42. Jose Martinez – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the end of the list. I call this tier, “Part-time glovers.” Did I ever tell you the time I saw Stevie Wonder at the supermarket? I don’t think he saw me–Holy crap, how long is this post already? Okay, this isn’t a fantasy baseball ranking post, this is turning into War and POS Eligibility. This tier is filled with guys who are or should be part-timers. As for Jo-Mar, he’s pushing the limits of what the Cardinals can turn into useful. Why do they even have a farm system? They can just sign 29-year-old has-beens and make them look like an All-Star. My guess is Martinez becomes a platoon player, but he’s currently slated to hit 6th and play 1st base, so there might be crazy sneaky value here, or this is an early in preseason aberration. Like Altuve going for cereal, I’m thinking the latter. 2018 Projections: 51/15/54/.269/3 in 402 ABs
43. Jake Bauers – Will the Rays start Jake Bauers’ clock? *giggles* Oh, c’mon, that was a good one! 2018 Projections: 54/14/61/.239/14 in 411 ABs
44. Mitch Moreland – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Re-signed with the Red Sox. I loved Moreland last preseason like our forefathers like taking more land, but it didn’t work out for either of us. Truth with a hashtag or just truth? I’ll let you decide. Moreland suffered a broken toe in June, and he said that bothered his knee for the rest of the season. Does he have feet on his knees like Tim Conway playing Dorf? I suppose so. Either way, if he couldn’t succeed last year in Fenway with the Red Sox, I’ve lost hope for him.” And that’s me quoting me! 2018 Projections: 42/16/51/.247 in 367 ABs
45. Jedd Gyorko – Somehow the Cards have 12 capable hitters on their team, and each of them will get 450 ABs. Are we sure Matheny isn’t putting a lineup card up there with 12 hitters every game? 2018 Projections: 46/18/57/.259/4 in 384 ABs
46. Lucas Duda – When he signed, I said, “ANOTHER FREE AGENT WHO HASN’T SIGNED!” And that’s me staring daggers at Scott Boras for going on vacation in the month of December. UPDATE: Signed with the Royals to be their number one hitter. *clenches lips together to stifle laughter, bursts out* Gah! I’m sorry. I feel like a contestant on that old timey game show, Make Me Laugh. By the way, you ever notice contestants on old game shows all look so old? They could be 25 years old in 1985 and they look like they’re 65 years old and in 1962. There should be a game show filter on SnapChat that does this to pictures. Any hoo! Duda will perform exactly as he has over his career — power, low average, the worst three hole hitter if the Royals really use him there. 2018 Projections: 43/24/48/.225 in 389 ABs
47. Matt Adams – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Nats to platoon and backup Zimmerman. Adams should’ve signed in Japan. Not to play baseball, but grow back the gut and sumo it up. “Sumo it up” is a technical sumo phrase that means ‘grabbing a fat man’s thong and throwing him.'” And that’s me–Well, you know. 2018 Projections: 41/16/48/.266 in 341 ABs
48. Wilmer Flores – This feels like the year Wilmer Flores is really going to shine. Not in the traditional sense, but, when the sun catches his face just right after a good cry, he will look like he’s shining. 2018 Projections: 41/15/49/.271/2 in 324 ABs
49. Dominic Smith – This tier falls into two categories. Guys you wish weren’t in a platoon but are, and guys who you’re glad are in a platoon. Mets’ GM, Sandy Alderson, and offseason motivational coach said, “(Smith) didn’t win (the starting job for 2018) in September, let’s put it that way.” If Smith wasn’t exuding confidence after that, the Mets went out and signed A-Gon. 2018 Projections: 41/14/42/.241/1 in 367 ABs
50. Derek Dietrich – Last year he appeared in 135 games without a starting job. This year, I’m expecting him to appear in 152 games without ever being named the starter. I’m not joking. 2018 Projections: 61/16/52/.246/2 in 471 ABs
51. Matt Davidson – If you look at his numbers, he looks like a lock for 26 HRs and a .215 average whether he plays in 162 games or 26 games. 2018 Projections: 48/26/71/.215 in 411 ABs
52. Colin Moran – Here’s what I said when he was traded, “(Moran) was the other piece in the Cole trade. Here’s what Prospector Ralph said this offseason, “The 6th overall pick in the 2014 MLB draft, Moran has been a bust of epic sized proportions. I’m fine being the low man on Moran. He lacks the type of power that might help him stick at first base, the only defensive position he’s truly a fit for. His greatest attribute outside of his above average game power, is his approach, but neither add up to anything more than a late career Joe Mauer statline in my mind. Moran however is not without some rays of sunlight. He did add more loft to his swing this year, which resulted in his first .500+ slugging performance of his MiLB career. There’s just nowhere for him in Houston, perhaps there’s some opportunity elsewhere. Unfortunately, 25 year old first base/left field prospects without a track record of power production in the minors aren’t exactly desirable. Like Grey in a bathrobe.” Oh, c’mon! Moran is likely going to platoon with David Freese at 3rd, which sounds like Hooks from Police Academy, ‘Freese/Moran!'” And that’s me quoting me quoting Prospector Ralph! 2018 Projections: 51/13/48/.251/1 in 411 ABs
53. Luis Valbuena – This is my hedge that The Sciosciapath plays Valbuena over Cron at first base. I really hope I’m underestimating The Sciociapath’s intelligence, I really, really hope so. 2018 Projections: 41/16/47/.228 in 318 ABs
54. Mike Napoli – He underwent surgery this offseason for a torn ligament in his thumb, he hit .193 last year in 425 ABs and he’s 36 years old. So the Rays expressed interest in him, because, apparently, the entire state of Florida acts like the rich uncle to Alabama but still can’t support one, let alone two, baseball teams. UPDATE: Signed with the Indians to help them transition from mascot, Chief Wahoo, and his smoke signals to new mascot, Napoli and him jogging while smoking. 2018 Projections: 40/15/44/.211/1 in 364 ABs
55. Adrian Gonzalez – The Mets signed A-Gon this offseason, and with the splash the Yankees made with Giancarlo, the Mets needed something to put themselves on the map. *unfurls map* See that ketchup smudge on Kew Gardens? That’s A-Gon! 2018 Projections: 32/10/40/.254 in 272 ABs
56. Chase Headley – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Traded to the Padres. You know what I wish teams would do more often? Just say, “Ya know what? We screwed up. Sometimes we make good moves, sometimes we make terrible moves,” then cut some high-priced vets or trade them back to where they came, if the team will take them. Good on the Yankees for losing Headley. As for the Padres, how’s that saying go? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on the Padres for trading for Headley.” And that’s me quoting me! 2018 Projections: 60/10/52/.254/6 in 490 ABs
57. A.J. Reed – Really needs a trade to another team or a major injury to a guy in front of him or hitting so well in the spring that he pushes the Astros’ hand, but even then an injury or a trade would be preferable. Have I mentioned he needs a trade or an injury in front of him yet? Yeah, he does. Badly. Last year, he hit 34 HRs in Triple-A, and may be lucky to get 75 ABs in the majors this year. 2018 Projections: 25/6/32/.231 in 107 ABs
58. Steve Pearce – Overheard at holiday dinners, “I play major league baseball.” “For what team?” “Jays.” “What’s your name again?” “I’m Steve Pearce, your brother-in-law.” “If you say so, brah.” 2018 Projections: 42/12/50/.248/1 in 364 ABs
59. Mark Reynolds – Here’s what I will say when he signs with a team, “The free agent signing by Mark Reynolds was highly anticipated (by Mark Reynolds). The press outside his house (was in the form of a newspaper on his driveway) stayed there for hours each day. It was reported by just about everyone (in his family) that some team would bite (the big one) and sign him (because they had no other options). When it was revealed he would sign with FILL IN, their fans enthusiastically (removed their team jersey).” And that’s me quoting future me! 2018 Projections: 38/9/33/.231/2 in 271 ABs
60. Pablo Sandoval – I figured it was appropriate to end this bloated-ass post with Sandoval. 2018 Projections: 38/8/44/.238/1 in 289 ABs
The most ridiculous part of this post is you think Pablo will get 289 at bats. Is there an apple pie waiting for him at the plate to get him to walk up there?
Yo Grey! Happy New Year!
My leaguemate offered me Myers for Longo last year and I accepted. Now I have to keep him cuz I gotta keep an X number of guys and he makes the cut… means my 1B gets clogged up before the draft. LOL
Hey he MAY break out this year. This is FINALLY the year. Yep this time it’s fer realz.
Is Hoskins really that good. Helps he hits in that park but I kinda of see him as a right handed Dunn type, which could be good or bad, I guess.
It could be the smurf ‘shroom juice talking , but between the two I would prefer Myers actually.
Papa Smurf! Good to see you… There’s a new post for me, but I will say Hoskins doesn’t strikeout much at all…
I know you haven’t done OF rankings yet, but I have openings at 1B, 2B, and two Ut slots to fill – how would you rank the following guys…
Hosmer
Pollock
K. Davis
Murphy
Yelich
Thanks!
Literally asking for a friend:
Keep 1:
Sano for 2 more years
Cruz for 4 more years
Happ for 3 more years
I think Sano is the easy answer, Cruz for the best floor, and Happ to clean the floors.
Others kept:
Rizzo, Betts, Gary Sanchez, Just Dong, Erv the perv Santana (unfortunately, Happ and Erv are his best keep-able pitchers on his staff)
Thoughts?
@cmutimmah: Sorry – the format is H2H and there are 15 hitting and 15 pitching categories… lots of moving parts, but from a perspective standpoint, the power 5 hitting and pitching roto categories tend to get drafted earliest…
Grey, long time reader, first time inquirer? I just started fantasy baseball last year and I’m in a 5×5 Roto League, NL Only 11 team league, there are 10 minor league keepers with a $260 salary. Each minor league player carries a $5 salary. The draft is auction style. I’m looking to make a move this year. I acquired Hoskins and Happ at $5 last year. I Have an offer for Robles $5 for Freeman $40.What are your thoughts? I have Kingery coming up that could give 20/20 numbers. I wanted to hold out for Arenado, but who knows how much he would go for during the auction. What are your thoughts?
I’d take Robles for $5
HAPPY BIRTHDAY!
Also in terms of “what tier are we targeting for our CI” and you say Hoskins” while his adp is only 39 this year, its been trending up and I’ve seen him 2nd round last 4 drafts I did
Matt Olson looks like one of those kids whose too big for the field in Williamsport. The exit velocity is for real.
Thanks for the rankings ! I laugh pretty hard numerous times in this post…
I’m all in on Smoak this year. He’s a late bloomer. Always had the talent but couldn’t lay off the junk. Then all the sudden the light came on last year, kinda reminds me off Encarnacion, another late bloomer the Jays struck gold with. Maybe it’s the coaching? K rate down to 20% and walk rate to 14% in the 2nd half. He’s gold Jerry!
Yeah, could be… His price isn’t bad either…
I was looking at some (very pre-mature) ADP’s and based on early returns it would be in the realm of possibility to make a 1b all star team in a 10 person yahoo league. This is my new dream.
1b – Encarnacion
2b – Rizzo
3b – Freeman
OF – Bellinger
OF – Hoskins
OF – Mancini
OF – Santana
Util – Hosmer
I HAVE THE POWERRRRRR
That’s a foxy dream, Rum Ham.
@Rum Ham: Joking aside, this does highlight the importance of locking down a stud 1b early. The list starts looking much thinner when you consider how many of these guys could be drafted to play other positions by managers who already spent an early pick on 1b.
@Rum Ham: i love you rum ham
@Mantis Toboggan MD: I love you too. Oh, whoops, I dropped my monster condom I use for my magnum dong
Yeah, I always like to lock down a 1B in the 1st 3 rounds
@Rum Ham: I guess you can put Posey at C, but whatcha gonna do at SS? Marwin Gonzalez, I guess?
i had NO idea (and i own him in at least 1 dynasty) that sano more’s never hit even 30, i would’ve taken a 1 – 1 bet (in my mind, if anybody actually offered it i’d assume i was getting took) he’d already done that.
Yeah, surprised me too
Alright to trade Elvis Andrus for Edwin Encarnacion? I’m hurting for a 1B and I have Trea Turner at SS. 10-team keeper league points. HR’s are worth 10, triples 7, doubles 4, singles 2, SB’s 2, RBI 1, R 1, BB 1, K -1.
I love this site, the humor, the player write-ups, the sleeper picks everything, the community, etc. You should be super proud of your work here, even if it is devoted toward a fake sport that many play in their mothers’ basement.
Thanks for the kind words! Yeah, I’d take Edwin there
Stanton or Bellinger
Shallow keeper league. (Forever and no penalty)
@Captainpyper: That is a tough choice, but personally I would go Bellinger. Stanton was amazing last year, but Bellinger is 6 years younger and his 39 HRs last season are more than Stanton has had in any season other than last year. See if you can get something for Stanton in a trade.
I don’t know, I think Gallo has somehow become a post hype sleeper after hitting 40 HR in his first full season.
Tall order to break into the Encarnacion/Abreu level, but is it really that unlikely that he outearns Hoskins, Hosmer, Sano and/or Myers?
Heck, Gallo’s K rate goes down a bit, as it’s projected to, Bellinger’s goes up a bit, and these guys don’t really look all that different. They’re even projected for 120 and 121 wRC+ respectively. Enough of a difference for one to go in the 20s and the other in the 90s? Especially with 3B eligibility to boot?
@BLAMDOM: @Oddball Herrera: issue about overall ranking though is it doesn’t really take into affect how bad one player can tank one category.
Grey,
Off-topic question:
Clevinger => will you write a sleeper post on him ? Do you think his second half is respectable?
I don’t even know if he’s in the rotation
in the top 10 post i see you mentioning how mookie best won’t as likely fall to the 2nd round as machado, but mookie’s ADP last year i thought was right on 1st-2nd round already. admittedly i’m not basing this on any draft data for 2018 preseason but i’d think both of them could easily be 2nd rounders. mookie surely won’t be higher than last year, for redrafts anyway.
Maybe, but I’ve seen Mookie in the top 9 overall
@Grey: wow, other than rudy (and maybe you i don’t remember) i doubt he went that high even last year. i know i got him really late in an OPS league dynasty startup last year at like 14th or so (remember thinking how lucky that was last year), and pretty sure in the 10th-16th range in redrafts last year where i didn’t go rizzo (i pretty much always go au rizz at picks 10-13 lately). rudy’s rater had mookie like 3rd or 2nd last year (even for OPS rater)
Yeah, it’s hard to say with so little ADP data, but I think that’s around where he is…
@Grey: it is interesting that machado is being docked more for last year than mookie, esp when considering machado was higher last year (plus the positional “shortness” edge)
Yeah, I don’t know why people aren’t on the Machado train, he’s about to go off to get the hell out of Baltimore
Poor Tommy Joseph … he was your pet 1st basement last year, Grey, and cannot even broach the top 59 this year.
@LenFuego: he would’ve been if c-sant didn’t go to PHI. now rhysus and c-sant are both in the way (altherr’s gonna have issues too)
Yeah, no starting job
Update on Red Oaks, its only 26 episodes. You can burn through it quickly
That just sunk my enthusiasm… 26 episodes?! I’m still trying to get through the 1st season of Bojack…
@Grey: what did I sink. They didn’t make it drag on for years. It wraps up well because the story is done
26 episodes is so much to watch…
@Grey: 3 seasons at a half hour an episode. Don’t be a baby and watch it. As a Jew from jersey who grew up in the 80’s its a mandatory watch.
Also I checked in on your car show and it’s a U.K. version of Texas Car Wars
Oh, I didn’t know there was a Texas show like it… Yeah, it’s an easy watch, reminded me of Storage Wars with cars… YUUUUUUUUUUPPPP!
@Grey: Never seen the King of Cars. I honestly think most of the car shows suck. To much doucheyness
Yeah, and there’s some douchiness in the British show I recommended, but it’s only 6 episodes long and I was wanting it to be longer…
@Grey: One of the best shows is chasing classic cars because you get a history lesson too. The cars though are all really old and obscure
@J-FOH: @Grey:
Ever watch that show King of Cars ?
Nah, but my stepfather loves it
Hey Grey,
Great stuff as always, your insight into this fantasy game we play while keeping it light hearted and funny is a daily read I can’t miss. I also have a job that gets mostly praised with the occasional harsh critique. Unfortunately the one critique will weigh on me more than all the kind words and I hope that doesn’t happen to you. You and everyone at razzball do a great job. And, as an adult, if I don’t like or understand a joke or reference I skip by it and don’t feel the need to inform everyone of my opinion.
Keeper league needs to be set soon. 14 owners, weighted rotisserie with HR, RBI, sb, W, Sv, and K weighing the most. My team is a bit awkward but very competitive (I think) tho I’m having a hard time choosing the last guy.
Votto (my autocorrect changed his name to bottom, lol)
Odor
Bryant
JD
Benintendi
Edwin (for my dh spot)
Scherezer
Carrasco
Chapman
Choosing between Inciarte, Cueto, Desmond, Healy, Corbin or Hand for my final spot. Only 3OF needed. I know, SAGNOF, but Hand does K a lot of batters for a closer and they go quick in my draft. Being in a 14 team league, closers get scooped quickly during the season. Sorry for the long email.
Also I have Acuna as a prospect
Thanks! Yeah, of course, only thing that ever sticks is criticism…. I’d lean Hand, none of those guys jump out at me, if I’m being honest…
Thanks! I was thinking the same thing but each time I was going to select him I heard a voice in my head whispering sagnof. No one does stick out, that was part of the problem.
Yeah, that’s a problem
My index finger nearly fell off trying to scroll down to the first Mets 1B projection, and then it was Bruce, who probably wont play first at all.
How about that Dominic Smith?!
@Grey: Still hopeful!
Me too!
Was offered Conforto, Senzel, Kingery, Kopech, R Zimmerman for Hoskins.
Do I pull the trigger?
Are you rebuilding?
@Grey: I was 8th out of 10 the last 2 seasons. I’ve been rebuilding. Would probably finish mid pack this year. If things went perfect, maybe better. Full keeper dynasty league. I’m getting closer to being competitive.
Let’s get you out of rebuilding and start winning…
@Grey: I’m not going to lie, I’m not completely sure which option you mean by that statement. Sorry, I’m a little slow, haha!
I was just being enthusiastic… I think that’s a solid haul for Hoskins…
@Tbone: I love Hoskins, but if you are rebuilding that seems like an easy take.
After reading the Desmond blulb I got to thinking. This could be the year NOT to own Rockies hitters. Outside of Arenado and Blackmon I think everyone else is going to be sharing ABs somewhere (Maybe exclude the Frenchman too)
Walt Weiss was awful because played everyone he shouldnt. Bud Black might become worse but for a different reason. He’s got too many solid players to choose from.
Dahl, Parra, Desmond, Tapia and who knows where Cargo ends up, he could still come back, all are going to chop up to OF.
Story, Valaika, DJ, McMahaon, Desmond around the right side. (Ive heard they like Valiaka more than we have seen thus far) Also heard rumors Hosmer ends up here or San Diego.
It could be that paying market value for any of these guys is a loss simply based on sharing PT across the board.
Also, Picturing Eric Thames as a Massengil Spokesman made me smile.
I don’t mind Story but you’re right about a lot of the Rockies being in time share… Desmond, Parra, Tapia and Dahl could be a nightmare
Kyle Tucker or Hoskins? Dyansty format
Hoskins
Michael conforto may not start until may. I have him in a 18 man keeper league. is he still a keeper?
Judge, Correa, Conforto, Buxton, Eaton.
Over one of those?
@Grey:
just in general if you would still keep him with those guys. avg, obp , slg league.
Yeah, if there’s no penalty, why not?
Hey Grey!
It feels so good to have baseball back and all of the splendor that is the official Grey rankings.
Based on the top 20 so far I’m pretty sure I know the answer to this, but who you taking out of this group (H2H, 5×5, keep as long as you want):
Trea, Rizzo, Bellinger, Betts, Springer, Judge, Rendon
I’m going to try to flip those who don’t make the cut for picks if possible
Thanks, Homie!
Thanks! How many can you keep? All of them?
@Grey: Sorry, I went full potato and left that part out. I can keep up to 5.
Trea, Rizzo, Bellinger, Betts, Springer
Initial keeper question, Gray. We keep 5 majors guys every year and most teams keep a pitcher, sometimes two. Of the top 20 starters I’d say approximately 15-18 will be kept. 12-team, 5×5 H2H with about 300 players owned.
I’m keeping Stanton, Blackmon, Carrasco, Darvish. I also have Bregman (SS/3B) and Hoskins (1B/0F) coming up from the “minors” to play for me this year. So this are 6 are for sure.
I get one more “majors” keeper. Given the makeup and who I’m already keeping, who would you keep from this list:
Posey, Andrus, K. Davis, Odor, Encarnacion
We have no MI or CI spots. We have 4 OF and 2 UTIL. If I keep Andrus, I could play Bregman at 3B though not sure how much I like that.
Thanks!
Edwin
Grey,
I feel so old today (since it’s my birthday). Someone came to me and offered me Tyler Beede if I give him Eric Thames. Would you make that deal?
Happy birthday! Hold
thanks. Should I ask for Chance Adams instead?
For Thames? Why, you’ll never play Thames?
to strengthen my minor league system
And you’re fine without Thames?
I can get by but wants something else along with Thames for Chance Adams
Tell him to forget it
so either thames for adams or forget it?
Yeah
He said he would trade Chance Adams for Ryan McMahon. Yea or Nay?
Hold
@Scott Kimmel: You’d be taking a Chance, that’s for sure
nice play on words
@Scott Kimmel: I learned from the best, the man with the mustache since birth
@Grey: Thanks for the write up Grey. Isn’t today your birthday as well? Happy Birthday. Or if you wanted to keep it low key you can delete this comment ;)
Thanks!
I Heart this new cartoon Grey, even more so that Saturday Night Fever Grey! Please don’t stop making them!
Rankings look good; although Justin Bour stood out to me. I picked him up for a while (b4 he got hurt) and he was an awesome contributor (while sitting Wil Meyers during his “off months”). Maybe Bour became a “streamboat” in my lineup, and I see you have only projected 466 AB’s for him, which in and of itself (wtf does that mean) would be a career high. I think there is some relatively good upside with a full season worth of AB’s and his average won’t kill and OBP is generally solid…. Plus (haha) HOME RUN DERBY
Thanks! Yeah, maybe on Bour, but wow that Marlins lineup is gonna be so sad…
That ain’t no lie!
Rhys is causing me unnecessary stress. I have him and Gary Sanchez in a keep-as-long-as-you-want league that counts OBP instead of AVG.
Sanchez seems to the more sensible, safe pick for a casual 12 teamer. He’s the consensus best catcher on a solid offense. It’s nice to not have to even think about catchers during the season. He’ll get his at bats and put up decent numbers.
On the other hand, you have Hoskins with a studly walk rate as rookie and that insane power show from last season.
What’s your gut saying here? I’m already keeping Goldy, Trea Turner, and Springer.
Honestly, they’re back-to-back in overall rankings… Coin flip… I’d go Hoskins…
@swaggerjackers: I absolutely love Hoskins – last year I picked him up in May and had him suck up a roster spot until he finally got his chance and blew the doors out with his 18 HRs in 50 games in the last couple of months.
But for the peace of mind to never have to think about what you are going to do at catcher for the next 6-8 years? Yeah, personally I would go with Sanchez.
No Jesus Aguilar? This is bupkis
I found a show last night you will love on Netflix… Wheels, Deals and Steals…
@Grey: Is that like the car version of diners, dives, and drive-ins? Does the host wear button up shirts with flames and have spikey hair? Sounds right up J-FOH’s alley
It’s the car version of Storage Wars… It’s solid, and I don’t even like cars…
@Grey: it’s kinda sweet of you to remember I like cars
Yeah, as soon as I started watching, I thought of you… Buddy!
@Grey: sounds sporty….will add to the list.
But seriously what are your thoughts on Jesus. Subtract that ridiculous start and the edge almost goes to Aguilar. Obviously he needs to work on his walk rate but I could seriously see him getting the job at some point. Thames is awful vs Lefties and only hit .265 vs RHP. Aguilar instead hit .300 vs LHP and .244 vs RHP. Now Aguilar is obviously teetering on quad A territory but so is Thames. Point is, winning is winning and if the Brews are in it for real, Aguilar might get a shot if Thames struggles out of the gate.
Yeah, maybe if he struggles out of the gate, but Aguilar is on a weak side platoon, K’d 30+% of the time and seems no better at righties than Thames is at lefties… Feels like a 200-AB guy… Maybe in NL-Only I can get on board…
@Grey: but he was always around 20% in the minors when he had any significant AB’s. His home road are a little head scratching too where he is better on the road. That should change too for the better. My point here is if you play in a mixed league with deeper benches or once a week adds, hence own a “part time glover” I would rather hold his potential ceiling over a lot of those guys at the end of your list. Its better to have a lottery ticket who can hit 30 bombs than a guy you barely use who will never get above 20.
You’ve got a point, and if I was in the 45th round of an NFBC, I could see Aguilar and Sandoval both staring at me, and me going with Aguilar…
@Grey: that’s funny because they both could lose some weight
They look like they’d make a good tag team…
@Grey: total heals
Thinking like Afa and Sika…
wild samoans?
We can call Jesus and Panda the Portly Puerto Ricans?
HAHA, nice
Jesus Aguilar is the perfect platoon guy for daily line ups.
Grey:
What is your opinion of SS J.P. Crawford? What kind of player is he expected to be? Any comps? Same with LHP Justin Dunn. Speed? command? and his future with the Mets.
I just inherited both and I debating if I want to keep them or try to trade them.
I will go over him in the shortstops
Think M. Olson could be as good as Bellinger this yr?
Nope
@Grey: doing the reddit reminder on this one
How would you feel about Smoak as your CI over Lamb in an H2H categories league where we keep 8? Jake was a quiet lineup killer last season on account of his 2nd half disappearing act and continuing LHP splits.
Fun fact: I recently learned that “Correa” translates to “Belt” in English. Is it acceptable to refer to Brandon Belt as Brandon Correa? Can I slot Carlos Belt to my SS spot?
Thanks Grey!
Haha, Carlos Belt ran to 2nd, now that’s confusing! I like Smoak a bit more than Lamb
@Grey: Smoak’d Lamb! Amirite?!?!!
Yum!
Your destruction of Elvis Costello warrants a fathwah.
HAHA
$100 NL Only league(counts both OBP and Avg). Is it better to have Travis Shaw at $9.50 or Duval at $6 leaving $3.50 to pick up another player in draft(a Spangenberg type). I always debate if its better to have more money at the draft or secure the better player but at a cost.
Shaw
Super job Grey! You are right. I’m keeping
Hosmer this year over Sano (keeper). .288 AV is always sweet and just 15 HR to make up. Too many scary issues with Sano anyway.
No problem
Was one day old Grey already rocking the Mustache?
Like a baller!
Hey Grey, love the site! The animations are a nice touch. Much of the success I have enjoyed the past few years I owe to you, Rudy and Ralph. Thanks all!
That said, I have started jotting down my draft sheet for this year and hit a nebulous patch of SP around the late 30’s. I wanted to pool the community if any of the following names stand out (good or bad): Dylan Bundy, Jacob Faria, Mike Clevinger, Chase Anderson, Drew Pomeranz, Jameson Taillon, Kevin Gausman, Lucas Giolito, Trevor Bauer, Michael Wacha, Alex Reyes
I feel like there is going to be some definite ADP steals among this group. Any insight welcome, thanks again.
@Rum Ham: SP rankings should be around the corner.
@Rum Ham: Thanks! I’ll be going over the SPs shortly…
@Grey: But I’m thinking about SP right now and I was raised in an environment of instant gratification! /s
I’m doing the math here 2b, weekend, SS, 3b, top 20 OF, top 40 OF, top 60….ohhh man. That’s like a year in twitter time!
Haha, may as well make them my starter rankings for 2019
Where would Kendrys rank? Seeing 12 games started at 1B.
@billy blanks: I didn’t see he had 1B eligibility, I added him in…
You sound like you’ve been hitting the tequila!
Love me some Rhys. He’s following in the footsteps of Goldy.
@Cram It: Cram = Very Stable Genius.
@The Castillo Hype Machine: Don’t you dare.
@Cram It: Haha, I enjoy him as well…
@Grey: There’s only one other player that has the same body length, height, weight, wheel base, and career track as Goldy, and that was the 1963 Pontiac Tempest. Wait, that’s the My Cousin Vinny recall taking over. It’s Rhys Hoskins!
HAHA, nice… Rhys Hoskins does feel special, like ice cream and cake, a ride on a Harley, seeing monkeys in the trees, the rain on my tongue–Wait, that’s my Rocky Dennis in the Mask recall…
@Grey: the thing is that hoskins excluding short season has been the best hitter in every single league he has been in. If I had to bet money on one guy being a top 10 pick next year whose getting drafted after top 30 it would be him. He was overlooked as a prospect because he is the type of guy who gets overlooked, hit first guy with no speed and a weak glove. But very rarely is there a hit first guy with as high of a base as him. His base is Edwin. When he was called up last year I recall reading that he was the 20th best hitter in the MLB. When he was called up…before he ever had an at bat. Then he just went out and was the #7 hitter. Clearly the MLB is the most difficult league there is, but the 158 wRC+ was the lowest he has ever posted at any stop in his entire career outside of short season. At some point you just have to realize this guy can hit. You cannot find a better minor league hitter, honestly. Try. Google all the best players in the MLB and compare their minor league stats.
Hoskins > Hosmer all day everyday.
@The Castillo Hype Machine: Yeah, maybe if Hosmer signs in Petco
@Grey: Rhys
Testing something here… Ralph, what’s your favorite color?
@Grey: Rhys
That’s what I thought Ralph would say…
@Grey: Now I want some Corned beef on Rhys
Langer’s!
@Grey: Favorite Chinese Dish…Shrimp Fried Rhys
A very satisfying Hee Sop Choi’s
@The Great Knoche: Ya the Hosmer over Rhys is straight crazy talk. Hosmer coming off at 71 adp w Rhys at 39. And maybe the point is you can wait on Hosmer and not overpay for Rhys, but no way I am drafting Hosmer in the first 5 rounds, ever.
@The Castillo Hype Machine: i thought same thing when i saw that. unless suddenly hosmer stops hitting so many balls into the ground, but he’s done that one for years. ozuna used to hit just over 50% GB and almost had to have gotten better since then though.
Why would Angel Stadium be overlaid onto Carlos Santana’s home runs? He signed with Philadelphia.
$15 too much to keep Rhys?
@dk: Nope
Hoping for one of Goldschmidt or Freeman at first base this year, but am interested at seeing if Bell can take a step forward this year.
For Santana’s HR projections, did we (you) use Citezens Bank Park and put Angel’s Stadium or are the Phillies playing home Games in Anaheim this year?
Thoughts on Colin Moran (1b eligible)? If he wins a starting platoon role at 3b with the Pirates where do you see him in these ranks?
Not sure why you’re overlaying Angels stadium on Carlos Santana…. how’s his hr totals look if you overlay Citizens bank park?
I have an enticing offer on the table. I have Degroom and Alex Reyes on my team. Somebody just offered me Kluber for both. I’m holding right but am evaluating this. I do have Forest Whitley and Keller in my minors as well.
@Classy Freddie B!: i’m holding if it’s a dynasty (i.e. keep everybody for as long as you like) with no escalating prices.
@Classy Freddie B!: Hold
Why is Austin Barnes listed here- I can’t find he’s ever played 1B in majors or minors.
@Darek:
Probably meant him for the 2B rankings, I’d guess.
@Darek: Seems like a good spot for Ryon Healy, to satisfy the huge Healy fanbase
Hey Grey – thanks as always for the help!
OBP/TB league vs. AVG/HRs
5 Keepers: Votto, Ramierz, Dozier, Cruz and Posey.
I have the first pick. Jansen will be there – but so will Segura and Andrus. Given the lack of steals this year, and that these players are more valuable in a TB (vs HR league) – do you think I should take one over Jansen.
It’s Jansen’s reliability, ratios and Ks that make him so valuable (we have a 1400 innings cap).
Thanks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@Joe S.: I’d lean Segura
I cant find Ryan Healy….but i might still be waking up…lol
@tony Dif: At 20
Pooling the group! In a keep forever (+$3 annually) league, which side do you like in the below?
1. $13 JDM + $11 Devers -VS- $12 Kris Bryant + one of $18 Rhys Hoskins, $4 Whit Merrifield, $5 Mancini, or $4 Happ (FYI re Happ – weekly lineup league)
2. JDM + Devers -VS- Bryant + $9 Luis Castillo
3. JDM + $15 Schoop -VS- Bryant + any of those secondary pieces above
Thanks!
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?:
Hey Duda,
I wud go with:
1. Bryant & Mancini, I like Rhys, but not $13 more than Trey.
2. JDM + Devers
3. JDM + Schoop
@Malicious Phenoms: Thanks, MP! All makes sense. Agreed – $18 Rhys is probably about what he would cost in drafts this year, so no keeper benefit there.
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Did I already pick sides here?
@Grey: nope! Though you may be thinking of a different JDM trade (not involving KB) in a different league from a day or two ago.
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: What is the upper limit of what you are willing to spend on a player? Is a $30+ Hoskins affordable in his prime? Or $50+ between two players? IF you can afford the $$$ for multiple years Bryant/Hoskins all the way.
If Devers is already $11 and Hoskins $18, a $12 Bryant would be insanely valuable in this format given age and current 1 yr value. I would lock down the Bryant side in pretty much any of those scenarios, if you need to save a little coin I vote 1) Bryant/$9 Castillo, 2) Bryant/$4 Merrifield 3) Bryant/$5 Mancini
@Rum Ham: Thanks + AMAZING username. Top talent in this league is usually keepable until they hit $45/$50. Last year Cutch was drafted for $35 and Bumgardner for $44. Someone like Rizzo would likely be $50-55. But you’re absolutely right that a $12 KB will be easily keepable at great value until KB ages out.
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: If Cutch is $35 and Rizzo $50+ an $18 Hoskins seems very affordable as well. And I would want $12 Bryant at all costs.
@Rum Ham: Yeah – and I think this is the last time I’d have any shot of getting KB thanks to his unusually low RBI count last year.
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: 1. Bryant, Mancini 2. JD 3. JD
@Grey: Thanks!
No problem
Unless I get a chance to snag one of your top 6 here, I’m going to wait on 1B this season. I just don’t think the likely draft price is worth the risk on some of them. I’d rather wait until later and pick up a cheap combo of Bell and Mancini. Also, I think you might be a bit conservative on Bell’s avg this year. I think he should be able to hit .285-.300, as he did for most of his minors career. I’m also hoping that you’re low on Olson’s avg, as I own a few shares there.
@Tweak: Bell needs to have a .320 BABIP to hit that well and he’s not a fast guy, so needs more LDs
desmond played with a hand that never should’ve attempted to come back until it was actually healed, while playing with it he clearly was trying to hit singles only (and for a while had a higher average than he should’ve while trying that). i’d easily lay 1-1 that he beats those projections this year. the injury risk is cooked into that line. if this bet has an out IF he gets hurt again for something that clearly takes up more time than say 3 weeks i’d lay probably 5-1 on this. maybe higher.
@Better Call Limehouse: Maybe, but he was supposed to easily beat those projections last year too, and he didn’t
@Grey: that was till he broke his hand and came back before it was healed (this isn’t just conjecture, look at the stats). now of course IF the hand STILL isn’t healed…..
this issue didn’t pop up with the times goldy/stanton broke their hands since both of them were in aug-sept, thus ending their seasons and guaranteeing them the MONTHS of time off their hands needed. desmond broke his at the worst possible time, march. hard to believe if somebody were to devour rockies interviews since about june there wouldn’t be at least one with desmond mentioning this himself, but sometimes these guys lie about stuff even when it doesn’t benefit them to do so (and they ABSOLUTELY lie about stuff when they think it might benefit them, as i’m sure he told team doctors last year he’s “fine”)
Players rarely talk negatively about injuries…
@Grey: sometimes after the fact as an excuse they do though. the ole:
while trying to play through something: “i’m fine (or “will be fine”)
after sucking A&# for weeks/months: “well i WAS hurt that whole time”
leaving out of course the most interesting part, IF you were hurt it WASN’T good for you, nor your team to play through that, as you’ll do badly, maybe get hurt worse (esp true for pitchers). for the types of players who could in fact lose their jobs easily there could be some incentive of course. probably why RP are the most likely guys caught with PED’s or growth harmones, as if their performance falls off even a little their job is gone.
some recent examples that were probably true:
beltre (talking about playing hurt for like at least 3/4ths of 2016)
freeman (“wet paper towel bat to hands”)
Beltre is always hurt, Freeman was actually one of the few that admitted he was playing hurt…
what’s with these video cartoons? did rudy do some crunching and find out you’d get more new readers (possibly children?) if you were converted into a sesame street character? they are funny as basically a 2 min podcast daily thus far summing things up for those who don’t/can’t read. but has the intelligence (re: twitter-donkey-brains) fallen so low that people literally won’t read over 50 or something typed symbols anymore? (seriously i’ve seen people show up in comments JUST to somehow rip on how something was “too long”. that was the only reason they showed up).
@Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: also, MIA is out of their damn minds, they get nearly nothing compared to stanton’s value (one good pitcher prospect guzman + s.castro?), a semi-low amount for ozuna, and are asking for ACUNA FOR YELICH?! i guess their front office decided punting for all time wasn’t exactly the best strategy and now they want to make up for the value they didn’t get from stanton/dee gordon/ozuna?
@Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: It was a buyer’s market this offseason
@Grey: makes it even crazier that MIA is thinking they can ask for acuna then for yelich.
Yeah, totally