I have to keep this short, because after the jump is going to be the longest post you’ve ever seen in your life.  How do I know all the posts you’ve seen to compare this one to?  Because I’m sitting behind you.  *waves*  Hey!  I’ve given you the top 10 for 2018 fantasy baseball, top 20 for 2018 fantasy baseball and top 20 catchers for 2018 fantasy baseball.  All projections included are mine, and where I see tiers starting and stopping are included.  Let’s do this!  Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2018 fantasy baseball:

1. Paul Goldschmidt – Went over him in the top 10 for 2018 fantasy baseball.

2. Freddie Freeman – Went over him in the top 20 for 2018 fantasy baseball.

3. Anthony Rizzo – Went over him in the top 20 for 2018 fantasy baseball.

4. Cody Bellinger – Went over him in the top 20 for 2018 fantasy baseball.

5. Joey Votto – Went over him in the top 20 for 2018 fantasy baseball.

6. Jose Abreu – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Hosmer.  I call this tier, “This Is Why I’m Hot lyrics.”  If you Google ‘This Is Why I’m Hot lyrics,’ Google replies, “Are you serious?”  If you click, “Yes, I’m serious.”  Google responds, “This Is Why I’m Hot, This Is Why I’m Hot, This Is Why…Continue?”  If you click to continue, Google adds, “This Is Why I’m Hot, This Is Why I’m Hot, This Is Why I’m Hot, This Is Why–Seriously, how long do you need me to go on with this?”  By the tier name, I mean, you should know what you’re getting from all of these guys.  As for Abreu, I wanted to slide him into the 2nd round’s DMs.  Honestly, you could call this guy Jose Votteu and be about 95% accurate if you’re saying they’re around the same fantasy value.  Abreu will give you a safer floor for power, and Votto will give you a better average and a few more steals.  Pretty close though, and this is why he’s hot.  2018 Projections:  92/32/104/.296/2 in 625 ABs

7. Edwin Encarnacion – Epitome of the “This Is Why I’m Hot lyrics” tier.  Sure, maybe Encarnacion hits .220 with 15 homers and completely bombs, in the bad way, and bad as in bad, not bad as in good, but you’re just guessing Edwin’s going to collapse.  There is nothing to point to saying he won’t just hit 35-40 HRs and .250-.260 once again.  2018 Projections:  92/36/109/.253/1 in 561 ABs

8. Eric Hosmer – The “This Is Why I’m Hot lyrics” tier should be Votto until Hosmer.  If Hosmer hits 33 HRs and .315 this year and does what we expect from Votto, and Votto turns around and hits 25 HRs, .285 and what we expect from Hosmer, no one would be shocked, especially after my spoiler.  Hosmer actually is coming at a small discount in drafts I’ve seen so far.  Here’s what I will say when Hosmer signs, “I made the case last year that Hosmer was Joey Votto Jr.  I called him Kangaroo Embryo.  I just thought of a kangaroo wearing a Kangol, but I’ve never thought about an alligator wearing an Izod shirt, I’ll have to discuss this with my shrink.  At one point, Wil Myers said he’d move to the outfield for Eric Hosmer to come to the Padres, and I thought to myself, “If I were Hosmer, I’d tell Myers to please not do me any favors.”  San Diego is like the Trojan Horse of cities (for baseball and just visiting).  It’s like this, “Oh, man, San Diego is gorgeous.  What’s this, 77 degrees every day?  I can get used to this!”  Five minutes later, “I am bored out of mind.”  Five minutes after, “Damn, can we get out of here?”  Ten minutes after that, “If I see one more white person in flip-flops I’m going to readily embrace going to Tijuana.”  Any hoo!  Hosmer isn’t exactly a home run hitter.  His fly balls were goofy low last year for a guy with 25 homers.  He was the third lowest for fly balls (22.2%), fourth highest ground balls and the 29th lowest for Hard Contact.  He does hit a decent amount of line drives, and feels like a 23-26 homer guy with a few more fly balls.  He might be Kangaroo Embryo this year, but to emulate Joey Votto Jr. he’s going to need to elevate the ball more.”  And that’s me quoting future me!  UPDATE:  Here’s my Eric Hosmer fantasy after he signed with the Padres.  2018 Projections:  83/24/95/.288/5 in 593 ABs

9. Rhys Hoskins – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Mancini.  I call this tier, “Love the upside!  Dot dot dot.  Others might as well.”  By the tier name, I mean that I’ve seen Hoskins go extremely high in drafts, in front of guys like Edwin and Hosmer.  To paraphrase Eminem, my drafts gone crazy!  Sorry, Charlie Culberson, but there’s risk and there’s reward, and at a certain point the risk is going to outweigh the reward.  At top 35 overall?  You’ve found the spot where there’s too much risk.  Top 50 overall?  Sure, what the hey.  I know, sounds like quibbling, but you’re the one quibbling, you quibbler!  In the minors for the Phillies, there’s some goofy home run friendly parks.  Like Coors in an anti-gravity chamber.  There, Hoskins had around a 19% HR/FB rate.  Sure, he was younger, but it was also the minors where every third pitcher is a garbage can that resembles John Lackey with painted on teeth.  With the Phils, Hoskins had a 31.6% HR/FB.  I don’t know, over-the-internet friend.  This feels a little high.  So, he hit 18 HRs in 50 games last year, and he’s not a 54 homer guy.  Fine.  Everyone knew that, but top 35 overall feels like people think it might be possible.  Player A:  75/38/85/.246/2; Player B: 80/35/94/.262/4.  Any guesses?  Player B is Steamer projections for Hoskins for 2018; Player A is Logan Morrison last year.  All this said, I do like Hoskins, but don’t go nuts with yourself.  I go further on Hoskins in the video, as well.  2018 Projections:  76/33/98/.271/3 in 544 ABs

10. Miguel Sano – There’s another way to look at the tiers.  Votto to Edwin, then Hosmer to Myers, then Gallo and Mancini separate.  What this means in the big picture is all of these guys are close.  We’re splitting hairs, if we didn’t have the foresight to use conditioner to avoid split ends.  Sano has easy 40-homer power, but a 36% K-rate in his career is obscene, and not in a good way like your dreams with Margot Robbie.  I know everything Sano hits is hard, I get the comparisons to Judge, but 40/.240 is not incredibly better than 24/.288/5, i.e., Hosmer.  Plus, Sano’s track record of 40 homers is nil, zilch, nilch.  2018 Projections:  88/40/102/.242 in 522 ABs

11. Wil Myers – He might be the highest ranked guy that I legit dread owning for long stretches of time.  He’s a 30/20 guy.  This is fantabulous!  He also seems to hit .190 or below for months each season.  This is always funny to me (not really funny).  Every preseason, people take great pains to dig in on players, looking at their overall numbers more than anything.  They forget what it’s like to own a guy that hits 1 homer for 50 days while hitting .175.  If you remove Myers’ April and September, he hit .209 in 359 ABs for four months.  This tier is sounding negative AF, but I really do like these guys.  That’s why there’s a “Dot dot dot” in the tier name.  There’s some extenuating circumstances.  2018 Projections:  82/31/72/.251/16 in 563 ABs

12. Joey Gallo – Sano is going so far before Gallo in drafts I’ve seen thus far.  I’m guilty of this too, but to a much smaller degree.  This is a weird pattern that occurs in fantasy baseball (prolly everything).  We prefer what we haven’t seen yet.  I even went over it in my Paul DeJong sleeper.  We’ve seen Gallo hit 40+ HRs and .209, so we figure that’s what he’s going to do.  Sano has never remotely come close to 40 HRs — he’s never even hit 30 HRs! — but we want Sano so much more than Gallo.  In the end, they’re likely the same thing.  2018 Projections:  81/40/93/.221/5 in 506 ABs

13. Trey Mancini – Already gave you a Trey Mancini sleeper.  It was written while in an elevator with Solange Knowles.  2018 Projections:  79/27/91/.297/2 in 567 ABs

14. Justin Smoak – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Bell.  I call this tier, “Atlas in a Chinese finger trap.”  You know that image (statue) of Atlas carrying the world?  Well, with this tier, I feel like Atlas stuck in a Chinese finger trap.  Every time I think one player, say, Smoak, can’t repeat last year (or will repeat last year as with Miggy), I think the opposite, and the other finger tightens into the trap, and I’m stuck.  This is a very difficult tier to love and/or hate.  As for Smoak, how good or bad are the Blue Jays, you ask with those soft, hazel doe eyes.  Well, Bambi, I can answer you with another question, how good or bad do you think their three-hole hitter, Justin Smoak, is?  Smoak’s previous season looks like strides were made by cutting down on strikes.  Maybe his strides were at the plate for less strikes — “How about you ‘tries’ to use other keys?”  That’s my keyboard back-talking me. — is an aberration.  If I had to guess, I’d say yes.  He didn’t go from a 32.8% K-rate guy to 20.1% in one year at the age of 30.  Things we can point to, however, he doesn’t hit cheap homers, his fly balls, HR/FB% and Hard Contact are repeatable.  He swung at 4% less balls outside the strike zone, cutting his overall swinging strike rate by almost 4% too.  He also still swung at the same number of balls inside the zone.  So, he didn’t get gun shy, he figured out what to swing at.  That’s a quantifiable difference, and one that has me excited for him, even if he was unrecognizable last year to previous ones. 2018 Projections:  78/32/89/.261 in 512 ABs

15. Miguel Cabrera – As my dad starts to get in touch with his own mortality, he’s doing little things that make me think he’s regretting some decisions he’s made.  He’s inviting me on trips, to which I’m totally Cat’s in the Cradle’ing him with, “Sorry, I don’t have time now.”  Just the other day, he sent me a picture of myself as a baby in the hospital.  My big takeaway from the pic of one-day-old Grey?  Already handsome AF!  My other takeaway, I don’t recognize myself.  That’s weird.  It’s like the beginning of a sci-fi movie, “Who Is Baby Me?”  Any hoo!  I bring this up now, because I don’t recognize Miggy anymore.  The projections don’t hate him, but he’s not getting any younger (surprise!) and he’s only played healthy once in the last three years.  The other two years, he hit 18 and 16 HRs.  It’s crazy to me that I’ve ranked Miggy below Smoak, but just looking at their numbers and being objective, after Googling to see if I mean ‘subjective’ or ‘objective,’ I’ve landed on ranking Miggy here.  2018 Projections:  71/23/75/.281 in 434 ABs

16. Ryan Zimmerman – Last year Grey, “Ryan Zimmerman is the crummiest of the crumb bums I’ve ever sneered at.”  This year Grey, “Am I really about to project Zimmerman for a .270, 30-homer season?”  Yeah, I don’t know.  Every time I, Atlas, try to pull a 30-homer season out for Zimmerman, the other finger tightens with, “He’s been hitting ~15 homers for the last three years previously, and now he’s 33 years old.”  There were some line drive rate gains made, but so many other numbers aren’t coalescing well enough for me. 2018 Projections:  73/24/84/.264/1 in 497 ABs

17. Carlos Santana – He’s like Wil Myers without the 20 steals.  There are huge swathes of time during the season, you just can’t with Santana.  Here’s what I said when he signed, “Carlos Santana was signed by the Phils.  Did Carlos Santana ever have a song called, “Harumph?”  Cause he’s making me harumph all over the place.  Doesn’t Hoskins play 1B?  Will Santana move to 3rd?  I agree, Maikel hasn’t been great, but he’s too young to give up on.  Maybe Santana plays outfield?  Hoskins plays outfield?  Maybe they juggle left field?  Maybe they juggle balls hit to them in left field?  Maybe they’re juggalos?  I got questions, y’all!  The scenario of Hoskins in the outfield seems most likely with Franco getting pushed down the order, but not out of the lineup entirely.  This might be something to watch in the spring with The Jacked Up Jew, and how he manages his new Latin classic rock guitarist.  As for Santana, his stats last year look like that of an aging slugger.  Carlos Santana’s gone from Oye Como Va to a hard-of-hearing Latino, ‘Oye come again?’  His average home run distance from 2016 to 2017 came down ten feet, but Citizens Flank might help a little.  His line drive rate went up, but his fly balls are going nowhere, and his Hard Contact was down.  He’s even seeing more pitches inside the zone, because people just aren’t scared of him anymore.  His stats don’t scream, ‘The end is nigh,’ but they are whispering, ‘Soon, my pretty.’” And that’s me quoting me!  2018 Projections:  74/24/81/.257/4 in 552 ABs

18. Josh Bell – The ball is wrapped so tight… Audience refrain, “How tight is it?”  It’s so tight Josh Bell looked like a 15-homer hitter in the minors, and swatted 26 homers last year.  By the way, the Bell Swat sounds like an unsanctioned Stanford experiment.  “If you ring a bell in a freshman’s ear for 18 hours straight, they will urinate themselves.  Assuming no bathroom breaks are allowed.”  Bell might be on the cusp of becoming the new Carlos Santana — you can call him, Coheed and Cambria — or he’s going to revert to the 15-homer guy we thought he was.  I’m taking the over, but conservatively. 2018 Projections:  71/24/87/.268/2 in 521 ABs

19. J.T. Realmuto – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Posey.  I call this tier, “They’re catchers, homey.”  As for Realmuto, went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2018 fantasy baseball.

20. Buster Posey – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2018 fantasy baseball.

21. Matt Olson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Desmond.  I call this tier, “Fleshlight or sock?”  This tier is filled with players that are going to stimulate you in the most glorious ways or they’re going to make you feel like you’ve put your penis into a shoe.  For our five girl readers, you’re gonna have to take my word for it.  Not’s so good!  As for Olson, can Allahson lead us to the promised land, or will he make us feel like we’re watching the Promised Land movie with Matt Damon which was awful?  My guess is Olson won’t continue his pace of one home run every one-point-five at-bats.  Last year, he was hitting so many home runs, his BABIP was .238, yet he still hit .259.  For a guy shaped like a donut hole, that doesn’t fully compute.  Seems like a good bet to hit 30+ home runs, or fall into a platoon because Billy Beane gets annoyed on his treadmill.  I go over Olson more in the video, as well.  2018 Projections:  64/34/70/.231/1 in 487 ABs

22. Ian Desmond – Hard to picture Desmond doing as poorly as he did last year in Coors again, but it was hard to imagine him doing it last year, and, yet, he did it.  My hope is Desmond plays outfield, McMahon gets 1B and both of them succeed.  Nope, I don’t hope for world peace, I hope for that.  2018 Projections:  55/17/51/.261/13 in 461 ABs

23. Matt Carpenter – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Bour.  I call this tier, “You get a 20-homer season!  You get a 20-homer season!  Everyone gets a 20-homer season!  Insert Oprah GIF.”  Tier name is self-explanatory.  You can’t throw a rock and not hit a 20-homer 1st baseman.  I told you it was self-explanatory, that’s why I reexplained it.  You’re welcome!  As for Carpenter, he’s on the Cardinals and hits a lot of bloops that look like a bubble car, so how is he not the Pope?  You can’t figure it out either, don’t lie.  2018 Projections:  84/22/59/.252/2 in 464 ABs

24. Kendrys Morales – He’s that young, scrappy upstart in the middle of the Jays’ lineup.  Ya know, the guy about to turn 35.  The Jays are like the teenager, who is riding the train for free, and, to avoid the ticker taker, they go station to station.  And that is the only time the Jays will ever be compared to teenagers.  2018 Projections:  68/25/80/.253 in 541 ABs

25. Jay Bruce – He seems a year or two away from becoming Mike Napoli.  Let’s hope Jay Bruce’s mom has nice cans!  2018 Projections:  77/30/89/.244/1 in 530 ABs

26. Marwin Gonzalez – I was expecting to look at Marwin and think, “Bleh,” then, after a beat, think, “Who am I, Dracula?”  Well, if I’m Dracula, Gonzalez is my express pass to Marwinvania!  And that’s me sucking blood from the rock of pun.  2018 Projections: 63/20/76/.273/5 in 438 ABs

27. Ryan McMahon – Went over him already in my Ryan McMahon fantasy.  I typed it with my cankles.  UPDATE:  McMahon is now doubtful to make Opening Day roster.  So, I got this bread that I call OH, and I got this meat I call EL, and I’m going on a picnic with Ryan McMahon and feeding him some EL OH EL’s.  Yo, seriously, the Rockies are stupid, yo.  Why can’t they ever play a rookie 1st baseman?  They put their hand on the Bible and swear to Todd Helton they’d only play old doodes at 1st?  I need to know!  UPDATE 2:  He made the roster!  Now what does this mean for Ian Desmond?  Because I sorta drafted Ian Desmond everywhere.  Can the Rockies make like Frank Sobotka and release CarGo?  2018 Projections:  61/19/69/.267/5 in 424 ABs

28. Ryon Healy – Here’s what I said when he was traded, “I was strongly considering writing a Ryon Healy sleeper post, but consider this here is that <–excellent grammar!  Last year, Healy hit 25 homers an average of 411.1 feet.  That’s 15th best in the majors.  Average home run distance doesn’t move the pants compass due north, but when I’m thinking about someone going to now play their home games in Safeco, it’s a solid indication.  Not that surprising he had some giddy in up-jump-the-boogies because he was playing half his games in the placenta of the Grand Canyon called the Oakland Coliseum.  Something that is odd, and I’m going to write it off as an anomaly, but the Coliseum was a positive for offense last year (Safeco was still not good, per usual).  Long story made longer, I think the move for Healy is a push.  His 15.1 HR/FB% looks repeatable, and his fly ball rate.  All his peripherals actually look repeatable, and he hit 25 HRs in 149 games last year, after hitting 13 HRs in 2015 in almost exactly half the number of games.  Doode’s a machine.  Unfortch, it’s not a 45-homer machine, but more like a cheap Kyle Seager machine.  That’s worth drafting though, as long as he gets out of his current projected nine-hole.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2018 Projections:  61/24/72/.261/1 in 471 ABs

29. Yuli Gurriel – If I ranked players at the end of September, I likely would’ve put Gurriel lower, but after watching him in the playoffs, I boosted him up.  Or as he’d say, the prayoffs.  No, his Asian dig didn’t make me boost him, though I’ve heard if you dig long enough you can get to China.  I was impressed with his at-bats during the postseason.  Yes, small sample size, but what he did during October was essentially what he did all season too.  UPDATE:  Had hamate bone surgery and out for 5-6 weeks, according to the Astros, which means he’ll miss 8-10 weeks and never look same.  Okay, being negative, but this isn’t good news no matter how you slice it.  It being his hand.  For his sake, hopefully his doctor isn’t Asian.  2018 Projections:  62/17/71/.284/3 in 441 ABs

30. Justin Bour – Can a cleanup hitter on a major league team only get 65 RBIs?  The Padres have been trying to answer this question for a few years and now the Marlins are in the hunt.  2018 Projections:  57/25/70/.260/1 in 466 ABs

31. Eric Thames – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Bird.  I call this tier, “BCS vs. RCS.”  In this instance, the BCS isn’t an organization that infuriates people for putting their alumni team in the Massengill Bowl in Santa Fe.  It’s Best Case Scenario vs. Realistic Case Scenario.  The BCS for each of these guys would catapult them above a tier or two above them, but the RCS has them showing flashes, and being this valuable.  As for Thames, he went from being Chris Shelton in April to being Chris Shelton in every month.  Now, I’m not even sure he’s an everyday player, unless the Brewers are playing the RedsReds play on the Ohio River and Thames is a river, so I’m currently auditing a SABR course to find out if there’s any correlation.  2018 Projections: 68/28/61/.243/5 in 439 ABs

32. Albert Pujols – Last year, Pujols had 363 ABs in the three hole and 230 ABs in the cleanup slot.  He did have 101 RBIs, but how many runs?  C’mon, the Angels were stacked in the bottom of their order, right?  *whispers ‘no’*  Pujols had 53 runs last year.  Appropriately, below Pujols was crap.  Because it is required Shohei Ohtani is mentioned in every fantasy post this year, Pujols will also lose 30-50 ABs this year if the Sciosciapath goes with Ohtani at DH, and Cron at 1B.  I picture Pujols getting some 1B starts too, when Ohtani DH’s.  2018 Projections:  61/24/88/.248/2 in 528 ABs

33. C.J. Cron – He’s the only guy in this tier who should have a starting job, but when Ohtani DHs, Pujols might play 1B.  Then again, Cron should’ve started for the last three years and hasn’t.  So, put should in one hand, and drop trou and do a dookie in the other hand, and you got only one hand with something in it.  Watch The Sciosciapath actually play Cron this year, because Cron’s about to hit arbitration next year.  I can’t wait for the Ken Burns 17-hour documentary about how Scioscia had dementia for the last ten years.  UPDATE:  Traded to the Rays.  This is great news for Cron since he’ll no longer have to fight The Sciosciapath’s worst instincts….Actually, might be The Sciosciapath’s best instinct all those years to bench Cron, which is still good news for Cron.  Finally, Cron gets to become Napoli away from The Sciosciapath.  2018 Projections:  64/25/71/.241/3 in 533 ABs

34. Hanley Ramirez – Maybe it’s the ultimate hedge, but don’t you love how I didn’t know what to make of this tier, and projected most of them for almost the same numbers?  Pretty sneaky, ‘pert!  UPDATE:  With the signing of Just Dong, Hanley’s going to have to play 1st base, which means it will take one throw into the first base line for Hanley to lose his arm.  2018 Projections:  62/20/71/.265/2 in 441 ABs

35. Chris Davis – Best case scenario?  50+ homers and a return to his previous glory.  More realistic scenario is a 76-year-old Boog Powell hitting 50+ homers, and Chris Davis running Boog Powell’s BBQ shack.  2018 Projections:  61/27/72/.220/1 in 462 ABs

36. Yonder Alonso – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Indians.  There’s career years, then there’s what Alonso just had.  He had all the years of his career jammed into one year.  If Alonso hit 28 home runs last year because it was a walk year, after regularly hitting 5-7 homers a year, I have a great question:  why didn’t he do this any other year?  If we’re to believe it’s a contract year thing, then we have to believe he was sandbagging for ten years, only to turn it on last year.  That strains under the weight of incredulity.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I also go over him further in the video.  2018 Projections:  60/20/66/.263/2 in 428 ABs

37. Logan Morrison – This tier could also be considered, “Could hit anywhere from 18-40 homers and .205-.250.”  Or at least that defines LoMo.  UPDATE:  Signed with the Twins to DH, and force Miguel Sano to roll out to 3rd base every day, which could help him lose between 190 and 210 calories a day.  So, technically, LoMo is also the Jillian Michaels of the Twins, and Sano is the biggest loser.  2018 Projections:  61/23/67/.239/2 in 461 ABs

38. Greg Bird – The projections for Bird from Steamer — 30+ HRs, .254 average — look remarkably close to what everyone was expecting from him last year.  Ya know, before he pulled a Kotchman, and missed seven-eighths of the season with a boo-boo.  Maybe I’m being too conservative, maybe I’m too much like my aunt, not bold enough, but Bird burned me good last year, and I’m anxiously drafting him.  Not anxiously as in highly anticipated, but anxiously like I’m biting my nails.  UPDATE:  Out for two months with a broken spur in his foot.  Guess that’s also why he didn’t fight in Vietnam.  2018 Projections:  50/17/57/.244/1 in 326 ABs

39. Neil Walker – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Belt.  I call this tier, “I must’ve signed some sort of contract that said I had to rank these guys.”  As for Walker, when he signed, I said, “Nothing, because no one is signing anywhere!  C’mon, Mets, sign some of these scrubs!” Obviously, if some of these guys sign I will adjust their rankings and projections.  UPDATE:  Signed with the Yankees, so the Mets would be totally jealous.  Here’s the Mets, “Giancarlo?  Okay, whatever.  Sonny Gray?  La di da!  Gary Sanchez?  We’ve got d’Arnaud!  Aaron Judge?  We’ve got d’Arnaud!  Neil Walker?  YOU’VE TORN OUT OUR HEART!”  Walker will play 2nd until Gleyber is officially ready, and fill-in for Bird if/when he gets hurt.  2018 Projections:  58/18/63/.261/2 in 487 ABs

40. Joe Mauer – He’s really fallen far from the year Rotoworld ranked him in the top ten overall.  Wait, that was only two years ago.  2018 Projections:  75/8/51/.273/2 in 532 ABs

41. Brandon Belt – This ranking is kinda sexy if you think about how the Belt is way below the Pujols.  Thinking about Belt any other way is not sexy.  2018 Projections: 65/17/62/.253/3 in 449 ABs

42. Jose Martinez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of the list.  I call this tier, “Part-time glovers.”  Did I ever tell you the time I saw Stevie Wonder at the supermarket?  I don’t think he saw me–Holy crap, how long is this post already?  Okay, this isn’t a fantasy baseball ranking post, this is turning into War and POS Eligibility.  This tier is filled with guys who are or should be part-timers.  As for Jo-Mar, he’s pushing the limits of what the Cardinals can turn into useful.  Why do they even have a farm system?  They can just sign 29-year-old has-beens and make them look like an All-Star.  My guess is Martinez becomes a platoon player, but he’s currently slated to hit 6th and play 1st base, so there might be crazy sneaky value here, or this is an early in preseason aberration.  Like Altuve going for cereal, I’m thinking the latter.  2018 Projections:  51/15/54/.269/3 in 402 ABs

43. Jake Bauers – Will the Rays start Jake Bauers’ clock?  *giggles*  Oh, c’mon, that was a good one!  2018 Projections: 54/14/61/.239/14 in 411 ABs

44. Mitch Moreland – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Re-signed with the Red Sox.  I loved Moreland last preseason like our forefathers like taking more land, but it didn’t work out for either of us.  Truth with a hashtag or just truth?  I’ll let you decide.  Moreland suffered a broken toe in June, and he said that bothered his knee for the rest of the season.  Does he have feet on his knees like Tim Conway playing Dorf?  I suppose so.  Either way, if he couldn’t succeed last year in Fenway with the Red Sox, I’ve lost hope for him.”  And that’s me quoting me! 2018 Projections:  42/16/51/.247 in 367 ABs

45. Jedd Gyorko – Somehow the Cards have 12 capable hitters on their team, and each of them will get 450 ABs.  Are we sure Matheny isn’t putting a lineup card up there with 12 hitters every game?  2018 Projections:  46/18/57/.259/4 in 384 ABs

46. Lucas Duda – When he signed, I said, “ANOTHER FREE AGENT WHO HASN’T SIGNED!”  And that’s me staring daggers at Scott Boras for going on vacation in the month of December.  UPDATE:  Signed with the Royals to be their number one hitter.  *clenches lips together to stifle laughter, bursts out*  Gah!  I’m sorry.  I feel like a contestant on that old timey game show, Make Me Laugh.  By the way, you ever notice contestants on old game shows all look so old?  They could be 25 years old in 1985 and they look like they’re 65 years old and in 1962.  There should be a game show filter on SnapChat that does this to pictures.  Any hoo!  Duda will perform exactly as he has over his career — power, low average, the worst three hole hitter if the Royals really use him there.  2018 Projections: 43/24/48/.225 in 389 ABs

47. Matt Adams – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Nats to platoon and backup Zimmerman.  Adams should’ve signed in Japan.  Not to play baseball, but grow back the gut and sumo it up.  “Sumo it up” is a technical sumo phrase that means ‘grabbing a fat man’s thong and throwing him.'”  And that’s me–Well, you know.  2018 Projections:  41/16/48/.266 in 341 ABs

48. Wilmer Flores – This feels like the year Wilmer Flores is really going to shine.  Not in the traditional sense, but, when the sun catches his face just right after a good cry, he will look like he’s shining.  2018 Projections:  41/15/49/.271/2 in 324 ABs

49. Dominic Smith – This tier falls into two categories.  Guys you wish weren’t in a platoon but are, and guys who you’re glad are in a platoon.  Mets’ GM, Sandy Alderson, and offseason motivational coach said, “(Smith) didn’t win (the starting job for 2018) in September, let’s put it that way.”  If Smith wasn’t exuding confidence after that, the Mets went out and signed A-Gon.  2018 Projections:  41/14/42/.241/1 in 367 ABs

50. Derek Dietrich – Last year he appeared in 135 games without a starting job.  This year, I’m expecting him to appear in 152 games without ever being named the starter.  I’m not joking.  2018 Projections:  61/16/52/.246/2 in 471 ABs

51. Matt Davidson – If you look at his numbers, he looks like a lock for 26 HRs and a .215 average whether he plays in 162 games or 26 games.  2018 Projections: 48/26/71/.215 in 411 ABs

52. Colin Moran – Here’s what I said when he was traded, “(Moran) was the other piece in the Cole trade.  Here’s what Prospector Ralph said this offseason, “The 6th overall pick in the 2014 MLB draft, Moran has been a bust of epic sized proportions. I’m fine being the low man on Moran. He lacks the type of power that might help him stick at first base, the only defensive position he’s truly a fit for. His greatest attribute outside of his above average game power, is his approach, but neither add up to anything more than a late career Joe Mauer statline in my mind. Moran however is not without some rays of sunlight. He did add more loft to his swing this year, which resulted in his first .500+ slugging performance of his MiLB career. There’s just nowhere for him in Houston, perhaps there’s some opportunity elsewhere. Unfortunately, 25 year old first base/left field prospects without a track record of power production in the minors aren’t exactly desirable.  Like Grey in a bathrobe.”  Oh, c’mon!  Moran is likely going to platoon with David Freese at 3rd, which sounds like Hooks from Police Academy, ‘Freese/Moran!'”  And that’s me quoting me quoting Prospector Ralph!  2018 Projections:  51/13/48/.251/1 in 411 ABs

53. Luis Valbuena – This is my hedge that The Sciosciapath plays Valbuena over Cron at first base.  I really hope I’m underestimating The Sciociapath’s intelligence, I really, really hope so.  2018 Projections: 41/16/47/.228 in 318 ABs

54. Mike Napoli – He underwent surgery this offseason for a torn ligament in his thumb, he hit .193 last year in 425 ABs and he’s 36 years old.  So the Rays expressed interest in him, because, apparently, the entire state of Florida acts like the rich uncle to Alabama but still can’t support one, let alone two, baseball teams.  UPDATE:  Signed with the Indians to help them transition from mascot, Chief Wahoo, and his smoke signals to new mascot, Napoli and him jogging while smoking.  2018 Projections: 40/15/44/.211/1 in 364 ABs

55. Adrian Gonzalez – The Mets signed A-Gon this offseason, and with the splash the Yankees made with Giancarlo, the Mets needed something to put themselves on the map.  *unfurls map*  See that ketchup smudge on Kew Gardens?  That’s A-Gon!  2018 Projections:  32/10/40/.254 in 272 ABs

56. Chase Headley – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Traded to the Padres.  You know what I wish teams would do more often?  Just say, “Ya know what?  We screwed up.  Sometimes we make good moves, sometimes we make terrible moves,” then cut some high-priced vets or trade them back to where they came, if the team will take them.  Good on the Yankees for losing Headley.  As for the Padres, how’s that saying go?  Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on the Padres for trading for Headley.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2018 Projections:  60/10/52/.254/6 in 490 ABs

57. A.J. Reed – Really needs a trade to another team or a major injury to a guy in front of him or hitting so well in the spring that he pushes the Astros’ hand, but even then an injury or a trade would be preferable.  Have I mentioned he needs a trade or an injury in front of him yet?  Yeah, he does.  Badly.  Last year, he hit 34 HRs in Triple-A, and may be lucky to get 75 ABs in the majors this year.  2018 Projections:  25/6/32/.231 in 107 ABs

58. Steve Pearce – Overheard at holiday dinners, “I play major league baseball.”  “For what team?”  “Jays.”  “What’s your name again?”  “I’m Steve Pearce, your brother-in-law.”  “If you say so, brah.”  2018 Projections:  42/12/50/.248/1 in 364 ABs

59. Mark Reynolds – Here’s what I will say when he signs with a team, “The free agent signing by Mark Reynolds was highly anticipated (by Mark Reynolds).  The press outside his house (was in the form of a newspaper on his driveway) stayed there for hours each day.  It was reported by just about everyone (in his family) that some team would bite (the big one) and sign him (because they had no other options).  When it was revealed he would sign with FILL IN, their fans enthusiastically (removed their team jersey).”  And that’s me quoting future me!  2018 Projections:  38/9/33/.231/2 in 271 ABs

60. Pablo Sandoval – I figured it was appropriate to end this bloated-ass post with Sandoval.  2018 Projections:  38/8/44/.238/1 in 289 ABs

 
  1. Nick says:
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    Hi Grey,

    would you get Trey over Adam Jones? Avisail Garcia?
    as Abreu 1B backup in Dynasty?

    Nick

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @Nick:

      I wud take Mancini over Jones

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Nick: Trey’s over both

      • Nick says:
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        @Grey:
        dropped Adam jones for Trey ;)

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Cool

  2. foul balls says:
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    nice look at your picks for 1b, lots of talent there 5 of them are in your top 20 and the next 5 possibly in your top 80.

  3. Dominik says:
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    What about Ryon Healy? I keep scrolling up and down and can´t find him.

    • Cram It says:
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      @Dominik: Ctrl + F

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Dominik: Mid-point, where the page folds

  4. Cabby says:
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    Hey Grey,

    12 team Keeper,
    Keepers
    – Harper, Altuve, Arenado, Abreu, Marte, Mazara, Dahl, Kluber, Stroman, Alex Reyes

    Minor keepers-Acuna, E.Jiminez, V. Robles, Hader, Keller

    Should I trade Abreu and number 8 minor league pick for Margot, Miguel Cabrera and number 14 pick. The picks don’t really make a difference. I like Margot but I think I will try to trade for a better first baseman in a different deal, then try to acquire Margot.

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @Cabby: No, I would hold Abreu and try another way to get Margot.

  5. PB&J says:
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    Nice job with the rankings, Grey! So what tiers are we targeting for a CI spot?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @PB&J: Hoskins

      • El Marco says:
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        @Grey:
        I’m thinking about skipping Hoskins, Sano, and Gallo and grab Bell for my CI. It’s a points league where strikeouts matter. Thoughts?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          He’s not going to beat Hoskins, but he will come much cheaper… The other two aren’t great for a Ks league

          • El Marco says:
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            @Grey: Thanks! If Bell can be anything like Santana then that’s points league gold right there

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              He’s exactly like Santana, yeah

  6. Hometown Heroes says:
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    Awesome rankings grey! Where’s Ryon Healy? He can’t be worse than Pablo?!

  7. Racehorse says:
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    … Where have you gone, Ryon Healy
    My fantasy team depth-chart turns its lonely eyes to you
    Wu wu wu

    What’s that you say, Mr. Grey
    Allergic-to-walks Healy has left and gone away
    Hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey

    ;-)

  8. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    These vids are really great!

    My hope is that Desmond slips into the waiver rounds of my auction draft ($0) but something tells me people will still be drafting him higher on name alone.

  9. Dodger Rabbit says:
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    I just traded for Rhys Hoskins last night in my Dynasty League (for a greyt price). Seems you’re bullish on him, but your projections are quite a bit lower than most. Hoping for best case scenario.

    • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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      @Dodger Rabbit: Nice! Seems like Grey’s point was not to overpay for him in drafts because sites are putting him in the 3rd/4th round despite a very small (albeit killer) MLB sample size.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Dodger Rabbit: 33 HRs for a 2nd year player without any big negative category is not bad

      • El Marco says:
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        @Grey: Love some Hoskins but #50 overall seems too steep. Maybe if he drops a round…

  10. Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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    what’s with these video cartoons? did rudy do some crunching and find out you’d get more new readers (possibly children?) if you were converted into a sesame street character? they are funny as basically a 2 min podcast daily thus far summing things up for those who don’t/can’t read. but has the intelligence (re: twitter-donkey-brains) fallen so low that people literally won’t read over 50 or something typed symbols anymore? (seriously i’ve seen people show up in comments JUST to somehow rip on how something was “too long”. that was the only reason they showed up).

    • Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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      @Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: also, MIA is out of their damn minds, they get nearly nothing compared to stanton’s value (one good pitcher prospect guzman + s.castro?), a semi-low amount for ozuna, and are asking for ACUNA FOR YELICH?! i guess their front office decided punting for all time wasn’t exactly the best strategy and now they want to make up for the value they didn’t get from stanton/dee gordon/ozuna?

        • Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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          @Grey: makes it even crazier that MIA is thinking they can ask for acuna then for yelich.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Yeah, totally

  11. Better Call Limehouse says:
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    desmond played with a hand that never should’ve attempted to come back until it was actually healed, while playing with it he clearly was trying to hit singles only (and for a while had a higher average than he should’ve while trying that). i’d easily lay 1-1 that he beats those projections this year. the injury risk is cooked into that line. if this bet has an out IF he gets hurt again for something that clearly takes up more time than say 3 weeks i’d lay probably 5-1 on this. maybe higher.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Better Call Limehouse: Maybe, but he was supposed to easily beat those projections last year too, and he didn’t

      • Better Call Limehouse says:
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        @Grey: that was till he broke his hand and came back before it was healed (this isn’t just conjecture, look at the stats). now of course IF the hand STILL isn’t healed…..

        this issue didn’t pop up with the times goldy/stanton broke their hands since both of them were in aug-sept, thus ending their seasons and guaranteeing them the MONTHS of time off their hands needed. desmond broke his at the worst possible time, march. hard to believe if somebody were to devour rockies interviews since about june there wouldn’t be at least one with desmond mentioning this himself, but sometimes these guys lie about stuff even when it doesn’t benefit them to do so (and they ABSOLUTELY lie about stuff when they think it might benefit them, as i’m sure he told team doctors last year he’s “fine”)

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Players rarely talk negatively about injuries…

          • Better Call Limehouse says:
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            @Grey: sometimes after the fact as an excuse they do though. the ole:
            while trying to play through something: “i’m fine (or “will be fine”)
            after sucking A&# for weeks/months: “well i WAS hurt that whole time”
            leaving out of course the most interesting part, IF you were hurt it WASN’T good for you, nor your team to play through that, as you’ll do badly, maybe get hurt worse (esp true for pitchers). for the types of players who could in fact lose their jobs easily there could be some incentive of course. probably why RP are the most likely guys caught with PED’s or growth harmones, as if their performance falls off even a little their job is gone.

            some recent examples that were probably true:
            beltre (talking about playing hurt for like at least 3/4ths of 2016)
            freeman (“wet paper towel bat to hands”)

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Beltre is always hurt, Freeman was actually one of the few that admitted he was playing hurt…

  12. Tweak says:
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    Unless I get a chance to snag one of your top 6 here, I’m going to wait on 1B this season. I just don’t think the likely draft price is worth the risk on some of them. I’d rather wait until later and pick up a cheap combo of Bell and Mancini. Also, I think you might be a bit conservative on Bell’s avg this year. I think he should be able to hit .285-.300, as he did for most of his minors career. I’m also hoping that you’re low on Olson’s avg, as I own a few shares there.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Tweak: Bell needs to have a .320 BABIP to hit that well and he’s not a fast guy, so needs more LDs

  13. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Pooling the group! In a keep forever (+$3 annually) league, which side do you like in the below?

    1. $13 JDM + $11 Devers -VS- $12 Kris Bryant + one of $18 Rhys Hoskins, $4 Whit Merrifield, $5 Mancini, or $4 Happ (FYI re Happ – weekly lineup league)

    2. JDM + Devers -VS- Bryant + $9 Luis Castillo

    3. JDM + $15 Schoop -VS- Bryant + any of those secondary pieces above

    Thanks!

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?:

      Hey Duda,

      I wud go with:

      1. Bryant & Mancini, I like Rhys, but not $13 more than Trey.

      2. JDM + Devers

      3. JDM + Schoop

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Malicious Phenoms: Thanks, MP! All makes sense. Agreed – $18 Rhys is probably about what he would cost in drafts this year, so no keeper benefit there.

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Grey: nope! Though you may be thinking of a different JDM trade (not involving KB) in a different league from a day or two ago.

    • Rum Ham says:
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      @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: What is the upper limit of what you are willing to spend on a player? Is a $30+ Hoskins affordable in his prime? Or $50+ between two players? IF you can afford the $$$ for multiple years Bryant/Hoskins all the way.

      If Devers is already $11 and Hoskins $18, a $12 Bryant would be insanely valuable in this format given age and current 1 yr value. I would lock down the Bryant side in pretty much any of those scenarios, if you need to save a little coin I vote 1) Bryant/$9 Castillo, 2) Bryant/$4 Merrifield 3) Bryant/$5 Mancini

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Rum Ham: Thanks + AMAZING username. Top talent in this league is usually keepable until they hit $45/$50. Last year Cutch was drafted for $35 and Bumgardner for $44. Someone like Rizzo would likely be $50-55. But you’re absolutely right that a $12 KB will be easily keepable at great value until KB ages out.

        • Rum Ham says:
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          @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: If Cutch is $35 and Rizzo $50+ an $18 Hoskins seems very affordable as well. And I would want $12 Bryant at all costs.

          • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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            @Rum Ham: Yeah – and I think this is the last time I’d have any shot of getting KB thanks to his unusually low RBI count last year.

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Grey: Thanks!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  14. tony Dif says:
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    I cant find Ryan Healy….but i might still be waking up…lol

  15. Joe S. says:
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    Hey Grey – thanks as always for the help!

    OBP/TB league vs. AVG/HRs

    5 Keepers: Votto, Ramierz, Dozier, Cruz and Posey.

    I have the first pick. Jansen will be there – but so will Segura and Andrus. Given the lack of steals this year, and that these players are more valuable in a TB (vs HR league) – do you think I should take one over Jansen.

    It’s Jansen’s reliability, ratios and Ks that make him so valuable (we have a 1400 innings cap).

    Thanks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Joe S.: I’d lean Segura

  16. Darek says:
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    Why is Austin Barnes listed here- I can’t find he’s ever played 1B in majors or minors.

    • Darek says:
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      @Darek:

      Probably meant him for the 2B rankings, I’d guess.

    • Fungazi says:
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      @Darek: Seems like a good spot for Ryon Healy, to satisfy the huge Healy fanbase

  17. Classy Freddie B! says:
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    I have an enticing offer on the table. I have Degroom and Alex Reyes on my team. Somebody just offered me Kluber for both. I’m holding right but am evaluating this. I do have Forest Whitley and Keller in my minors as well.

    • Better Call Limehouse says:
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      @Classy Freddie B!: i’m holding if it’s a dynasty (i.e. keep everybody for as long as you like) with no escalating prices.

  18. eMCee says:
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    Not sure why you’re overlaying Angels stadium on Carlos Santana…. how’s his hr totals look if you overlay Citizens bank park?

  19. Timmuuhhh says:
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    Thoughts on Colin Moran (1b eligible)? If he wins a starting platoon role at 3b with the Pirates where do you see him in these ranks?

  20. Jose says:
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    Hoping for one of Goldschmidt or Freeman at first base this year, but am interested at seeing if Bell can take a step forward this year.

    For Santana’s HR projections, did we (you) use Citezens Bank Park and put Angel’s Stadium or are the Phillies playing home Games in Anaheim this year?

  21. dk says:
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    $15 too much to keep Rhys?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @dk: Nope

  22. Ryno says:
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    Why would Angel Stadium be overlaid onto Carlos Santana’s home runs? He signed with Philadelphia.

  23. Ralph Lifshitz

    The Castillo Hype Machine says:
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    Hoskins > Hosmer all day everyday.