Injuries are the worst. That isn’t exactly breaking news, I know. But you know what else is the worst? Rain. Oh, sure, farmers will tell you we need it in order to grow the crops that allow us to eat. Your third grade teacher probably told you it’s a normal and necessary part of the water cycle. Whatever. You know what else rain does? It leads to baseball games being postponed. When baseball games get postponed, it messes up pitching rotations. And when pitching rotations get messed up, it makes my job harder. I don’t like it when my job gets harder. Do you like it when your job gets harder? Exactly. So, what do we do about it?
One option would be breaking the water cycle by getting rid of all the earth’s water. However, that seems difficult and would make some people and all the fish upset, so that’s probably not an option.
That leaves us with forcing every team to build a dome. All it will take is several billion dollars, and my occasional minor weekend inconvenience would be solved. Seems like a no-brainer, to me. Get on it, Rob Manfred!
As always, what follows are our projections at time of writing as to who will be making two-starts this week, but weather, injuries and secretive team management mean they are just that: projections. To stay as up-to-date as possible, consult Rudy Gamble’s invaluable Streamonator.
Chocolate Chip Cookies (Must Start)
They’re safe. They’re reliable. They’re comforting. They are kings of the cookie world for a reason. A warm, freshly baked chocolate chip cookie just makes you feel happy. Sort of like getting to set your rosters knowing you get two starts this week from these guys.
| Pitcher | First Start | Second Start |
| Tyler Glasnow, LAD | WSH | NYM |
| Aaron Nola, Phi | COL | CWS |
| Sonny Gray, StL | @OAK | MIN |
| Merrill Kelly, Ari | CHC | @SF |
- It’s a short list here this week. Streamonator has Glasnow and Nola so far ahead of the rest of the field this week it’s ridiculous.
- Kelly actually rates out behind several other names, but considering the relative performance and matchups compared to everyone else in his range, I feel more confident in him having a good week and thus include him here.
Sugar Cookies (Should Start)
They’re fine. They’re not really anyone’s favorite, and they often need help from other additions, but they get the job done well enough. You could certainly do worse than having these guys in your lineup, but don’t expect it to be remarkable.
| Pitcher | First Start | Second Start |
| Aaron Civale, TB | LAA | @NYY |
| George Kirby, Sea | CIN | @COL |
| Tanner Bibee, Cle | @BOS | OAK |
| Joe Musgrove, SD | @MIL | TOR |
| Jordan Hicks, SF | @MIA | ARI |
| Kutter Crawford, Bos | CLE | @PIT |
| Garrett Whitlock, Bos | CLE | @PIT |
| Kyle Harrison, SF | @MIA | ARI |
| Seth Lugo, KC | @CHW | BAL |
| Chris Bassitt, Tor | NYY | @SD |
- Aaron Civale has looked excellent with solid peripherals, but that Yankee matchup could leave an unpleasant taste in your mouth.
- Bibee and Bassitt are guys you drafted to be safe and reliable choices for your staff, but they’ve each come out looking flat and burnt so far. You don’t want to give up hope they can get the recipe right, but you can’t feel entirely confident those first tests of the week will be crowd-pleasers.
Oatmeal Raisin Cookies (Could Start)
These aren’t for everyone. And even if you are inclined to like them, you don’t know for sure what to expect when you get one. Will it be chewy and flavorful? Will you chip your tooth because it’s as hard as a rock? Who knows! These are the pitchers that may be a pleasant surprise, or they could ruin your week. Tread lightly.
| Pitcher | First Start | Second Start |
| Frankie Montas, Cin | @SEA | LAA |
| Martin Perez, Pit | @NYM | BOS |
| Zack Littell, TB | LAA | @NYY |
| Cody Bradford, Tex | @DET | @ATL |
| Reynaldo Lopez, Atl | @HOU | TEX |
| Joe Ross, Mil | SD | @STL |
| Luis Gil, NYY | @TOR | TB |
- If you’re in a points league, Montas moves up a tier.
- Lopez is purely chasing wins with those matchups. If your ratios matter to you at all, be very, very cautious.
- Do I trust Joe Ross? No I do not. But he looked good in his last outing and the Cardinals offense hasn’t been setting the world on fire. How much do you like gambling? No, that wasn’t a question for you, Ippei!
- Yankees beat writers said Gil was the likely starter on Monday if he wasn’t used in Saturday’s doubleheader. If something changes and it’s Carlos Rodon making those starts instead, he’s a Sugar Cookie.
Fortune Cookies (Do Not Start)
Yeah, they’re technically cookies. If you’re truly desperate for something sweet they might work in a pinch, but they aren’t anything you go actively searching for. Hold on, what does that little slip of paper say? “Bad times are heading your way.” Oh. Okay, then.
| Pitcher | First Start | Second Start |
| Jon Gray, Tex | @DET | @ATL |
| Ben Brown, ChC | @ARI | MIA |
| Reese Olson, Det | TEX | @MIN |
| Patrick Sandoval, LAA | @TB | @CIN |
| Louie Varland, Min | @BAL | DET |
| Cole Irvin, Bal | MIN | @KC |
| Ryan Weathers, Mia | SF | @CHC |
| Erick Fedde, ChW | KC | @PHI |
| A.J. Puk, Mia | SF | @CHC |
| Ross Stripling, Oak | STL | @CLE |
| Jose Siriano, LAA | @TB | @CIN |
| Kyle Hendricks, ChC | @ARI | MIA |
| Tommy Henry, Ari | CHC | @SF |
| Adrian Houser, NYM | PIT | @LAD |
| Cal Quantrill, Col | @PHI | SEA |
| Hunter Gaddis, Cle | @BOS | OAK |
| Joan Adon, Was | @LAD | HOU |
| Spencer Arrighetti, Hou | ATL | @WAS |
- I had such high hopes for Varland to start the season. So far, those hopes have been a dud. Maybe Detroit helps him get his groove back, but I need to see it first.
- Speaking of busted hopes, remember how good Puk looked in spring training? Oops.
In a weekly points league where QS, W and Saves are worth a lot. IP and K are nice, but QS and W are where it’s at to maximize points.
I am debating benching one of Gil or Olson in favour of Mason Miller. An SP that can get Saves?! Could be great!
Am I big braining this? 2-starts are usually money, but Olson and Gil don’t scream Quality Starts right now, despite the streamonator loving 1 of both of their starts.
Counting on the A’s continuing to provide save chances is a gamble, but I’d have no problem benching Olson this week. I don’t think Gil is such a safe bet, particularly for a QS, that benching him is unthinkable, either. So it’s the inverse of how out of position pitchers tend to get used in points leagues, but I think it’s justifiable in this case
This will likely be unpopular but I preferred Dive Bar to cookie shop. The tiers didn’t need to be explained and didn’t seem as forced. Content is great though.
What he had going with the Dive Bar idea was clear and straightforward for sure. Just didn’t feel right to swipe his thing whole hog. Plus as I mentioned in my first edition, baking-themed rather than bar-themed was much more true to myself, for better or worse. Anyway, I did and will continue to add the more standard “Must Start” and “Should Start” tags for those who feel stupid referring to pitchers as types of cookies. I get it.
Regardless of the tags, thanks for reading and I hope it proves more helpful than not over the course of the season.
CBS has Mize as two start v Tx @ Minny. also eyeing the suddenly impressive Max Meyer @ Cubs and also Gavin Stone v NYM. Would you start any of the aforementioned in place of Jack Flaherty @ Minny?
I think the Tigers were still up in flux when this was written, but that looks likely. I personally would not trust Mize right now even if he wasn’t facing Texas. It would be between Meyer and Flaherty for me. Facing the same team a second time in a row isn’t ideal for Flaherty, but….I *think* I’d rather him against a struggling Twins lineup than Meyer agains the Cubs? It’s not with any real conviction (or consultation with the streamonator) though.
Would you start Luzardo @Cubs or Montas for his 2 starts this week? Luzardo got roughed up again today. Thanks
Recognizing that Montas has always been prone to variance, I would. He’s looked good so far and both his matchups are winnable games.