As we continue our 2019 fantasy baseball rankings, we head into the homestretch of ranking hitters.  For those confused, homestretch isn’t when you shoot up in bed late at night, remembering there’s a bag of Doritos under your nightstand and go reaching for them.  That is the opening to my short film, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dorito.  The main character has just been “Frito-laid off” and is described as Pringley and Ruffled.  Last year, this post had David PeraltaAaron Hicks, and Randal Grichuk.  Well, they’re not all gems.  My point (PLEASE!) there is some value to still be found in the outfielders, it’s just a matter of finding it, like in the landmark film, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dorito.  As with the other rankings, my projections are included and where I see tiers starting and stopping.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 outfielders for 2019 fantasy baseball:

61. Jesse Winker – This tier started in the top 60 outfielders for 2019 fantasy baseball.   This tier goes until Pillar.  I called this tier, “Riding crop.”   As for Winker, he’s going to be 26 years old in 2019.  So crazy he’s only had 402 ABs in the majors, but it’s not entirely the Reds’ fault.  Last year, he had a shoulder injury in July that knocked him out for the season.  He’s in the Votto mode, and will be more valuable in OBP leagues.  Last year, he had a .405 OBP in half a season.  Of course, he also had 7 homers and zero steals, and that’s kinda who he is.  A much better real life player than a fantasy one.  Also, I have no idea where he’s playing.  Is he platooning with Kemp and Schebler?  Maybe, and I’m not winking some kind of code about Winker.  I’m blinking.  UPDATE:  Reds said they expect to get Winker 500 ABs.  I’m not taking them at their word just yet, because that means Matt Kemp just won’t play much, which sounds crazy to me in this godforsaken land of the MLB where upside never plays and old/boring always does.  I’m over here flinching at good news like MLB has damaged my self-esteem.  2019 Projections:  71/15/41/.304/4 in 464 ABs

62. Kevin Pillar – I’ve owned Pillar in NFBC Draft Champion leagues for the past two years, and I would draft him again.  “An owner in an organized league consisting of 15 teams or more that reorders team dynamics weekly or bi-weekly will draft a player late in the baseball sport of America and sometimes Canada, who gets regular at-bats and has equal parts speed and power.”  That’s the Pillar Statute, a name that’s admittedly as confusing as its text.   I think they made it confusing for the lawsuits.  2019 Projections:  64/15/70/.253/15 in 546 ABs

63. Kyle Schwarber – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here Pederson.  I call this tier, “Sometimes.”  Sometimes you’re the Hootie and sometimes you’re the Blowfish.  Sometimes you’re the Mueller, sometimes you’re the Muellee.  Sometimes you’re the guy who needs gas, sometimes you’re OPEC.  That’s this tier; sometimes they’re playing, sometimes they’re not.  As for Schwarber, he’s in a platoon as of now, but that changes with a hot start or one injury.  An injury to someone else, not him, that’s obvious, no?  I’m a bit surprised, tee bee aitch, that Schwarber is such an afterthought in fantasy drafts.  He has easy 30+ homer power and should hit .245 or better.  Also, year over year, he’s upped his walks, lowered his Ks and his plate discipline numbers are backing that up (chase rate down, contact rate holding still).  There might finally be something to Joe Buck, picking daffodil petals, saying, “Schwarber loves me, he loves me not, he loves me!”  Then running into his mother’s bathroom for ten minutes, and never flushing.  2019 Projections:  63/29/74/.244/4 in 471 ABs

64. Randal Grichuk – He’s a Statcast darling.  If you troll through perfs (as kids call them), Grichuk is total butter on exit velocity, average homer distance, barrels per plate appearance.  Only people with more barrels than Grichuk is a tour guide at Niagara Falls.  Still, with all of this, Grichuk has been about as fantasy relevant as a top seven catcher.  I guess call him, Yasmani Randal.  That’s not bad, and I do like him, I was just trying to take some helium out of how hard he hits the ball vs. actual outcomes.  Also, for those of you wondering why Grichuk is in a platoon tier and not officially in a platoon.  Well, you can point at his 150+ game seasons with zero fingers, which also goes for Goodrum.  2019 Projections:  65/29/76/.247/4 in 506 ABs

65. Niko Goodrum – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2019 fantasy baseball.

66. Enrique Hernandez – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2019 fantasy baseball.

67. Joc Pederson – I juggled Pederson between the tier in the top 60 outfielders of guys who are weird that I like, the tier below of outfielders who I don’t like, a tier in the top 100 of platoon guys, a tier in the top 40, then the Pollock signing happened and–Greybot, malfunction, need a sofa to rest gams.  Pederson kinda fits in with all of those tiers too.  He is weird, because he is so promising, but I think he remains in a platoon as long as Dave Roberts manages him — Weirderson?  He should better but hasn’t caught on, and he’s only 26 — Yung Joc?  But, again, platoon.  2019 Projections:  63/27/47/.244/3 in 414 ABs

68. Gregory Polanco – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Bruce.  I call this tier, “Back to normal Grey shade.”  By this tier name I mean, I usually alternate a tier of outfielders I like with a tier I don’t like, but the last two tiers were both favorable.  But this tier is back to Grey shade.  As for Polanco, here’s what I said merely days ago, “For most of the guys in this tier, I kinda assumed I’d like them, but not love them.  When I originally saw Polanco’s name, I thought I was going to dislike him.  He went 23/12/.254 last year, and I thought that was a peak on power and dip on average, but the peripherals actually say he could hit more homers this year, while continuing to bleed average.  27/10/.250 is not amazing, but it’s essentially the same he did last year when he was the 28th best outfielder.  Yes, Piscotty and Polanco were back to back in the end of the season rankings last year, but I swear it wasn’t planned for me to put them like that this year.  If you look at their projections 26/4/.272 vs. 27/10/.248, those are basically same thing.  Or, sticking with the tier theme, it’s not great to have an arranged marriage, but at least you’re not annoying your friends with the honeymoon period.”  And that’s me quotong me!   Then a not-so-funny funny thing happened, I finally paid attention when someone told me Polanco had shoulder surgery.  At some point in December, I Googled Polanco’s name and it sounded like he’d be back in March.  Then I whistled along, thinking I was Happy Dwarf, but I was actually Dopey.  About four days ago, Rudy said to me something like, “You have Polanco too high, he had shoulder surgery,” and I said, “Yup.”  So dismissive!  I wasn’t paying attention when I should’ve been.  Then, some random commenter on Friday said Polanco would be out due to shoulder surgery, and it all clicked for me.  That’s why we do the rankings now and don’t draft for six to eight weeks.  Maybe I was confusing Polanco with Ozuna, but I’m not sure if that makes me sound smarter or dumber.  Prolly dumber.  Any hoo!  Polanco won’t be back until May/June, due to shoulder surgery, so I dropped him in my rankings.  2019 Projections: 54/17/56/.248/7 in 398 ABs

69. Brandon Belt – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2019 fantasy baseball.

70. Marwin Gonzalez – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2019 fantasy baseball.

71. Ian Happ – Went over him in the top 20 3rd basemen for 2019 fantasy baseball.

72. Chris Taylor – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2019 fantasy baseball.

73. Jason Kipnis – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2019 fantasy baseball.

74. Shin-Soo Choo –  I don’t think I’ve drafted Choo in five years, i.e., I haven’t said, “I choo-choo-choose Choo in a while,” and it’s not starting now.  We had a running bet last year that he wouldn’t hit 22 homers, which seemed insane when I said it in July and he was already at 18 homers.  How about that 2nd half?  2019 Projections:  72/17/43/.259/5 in 523 ABs

75. Ben Zobrist – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2019 fantasy baseball.

76. Jay Bruce – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen for 2019 fantasy baseball.

77. Christin Stewart – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the top 100 outfielders for 2019 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Hello, Sharks,” by which I mean all of these guys are taking way too long to become household names and they could use some help with exposure.  Then Mr. Wonderful would expose some underlying problem in all of these guys and it would become obvious why they’re on their tenth year of the minors.  Then Robert Herjavec would say, “Give them a break, Kevin,” and Lori would say something about Scrub Daddy then I’d yawn and think, “Man, I watch too much Shark Tank.”  As for Stewart, unlike some other guys in this tier, the Tigers don’t have a whole array of options to not play Christin Stewart, no matter the strongly worded letters they’ve received in protest from Robert Pattinson.  We get it, man, she broke your heart!  Stewart reminds me of every outfielder who took too long to break into the majors, hits 25 homers one year and chases that rather mundane glory every year after.  Here’s what Prospect Mike said, “Do you like power? Me too! Do you like it when it comes with a suspicious strikeout rate but a solid walk rate? You know, the old three-outcome jawn? Well here ya go. Christin Stewart. Steamer is actually projecting him for 18 dingers in 420 plate appearances in 2019. That’s some cheap power in redrafts, especially deeper leagues or AL-only formats. If that wasn’t enough to get you going, he’s currently projected to hit second in the lineup as the only pure lefty bat. Holy cow…I think I just talked myself into drafting Christin Stewart with my last pick!  Which is different than an ‘ice pick’ that I’d use on Grey.”  Joke’s on you, I’m not an ice sculpture!  2019 Projections: 48/17/42/.257 in 354 ABs

77. Roman Quinn – It doesn’t feel like I want to draft Quinn ranking him this low, but I do.  But, Part II, Back That But Up:  He doesn’t have a starting job.  Quinn is the type of guy who makes you drool when you think about him getting a full season of at-bats, then you take scissors and cut the drool off when you realize there’s absolutely no way he sees more than 400 ABs.  One injury to a Phils’ outfielder *cough* McCutchen *cough* and Quinn is going to zoom up in fantasy value.  I see your puzzled face and I have to know, am I the only one that uses a scissors to trim drool from one’s face?  UPDATE:  Bryce Harper killed Quinn’s value, and he was removed from my top 500.  Sorry, bubelehs.

78. Manuel Margot – You are a special kind of terrible if you’ve overstayed your welcome in San Diego, which is what Margot’s currently up against.  I expect the Padres to give Margot one more whirl in the Mad Hatter teacup ride (totally a saying), but I don’t have a ton of faith anymore in him.  Rather than a sleeper post this year, I’ve written Margot in permanent marker on my car so people say, “Look at that manual car ‘Margot.'”  See, cause it’s a gear shift car.  2019 Projections: 46/14/44/.267/9 in 441 ABs

79. Franmil Reyes – Similar to many other young outfielders I’m excited about, I almost wrote a sleeper post on Franmil, and maybe, who knows, I don’t know, do you know, I might still.  Franmil is a 30-homer, .250 hitter who could be hitting cleanup for the Padres by April 15th, because Wil Myers and Hosmer have sold their rights to hitting cleanup after their previous season, and if there’s one thing Franmil knows is cleaning up at the plate (he’s big).  Unfortunately, Reyes also might be the odd man out if Wil Myers plays a corner outfield position as is rumored.  You figure Myers, Renfroe, then a platoon of Margot and Franchy, so where does Franmil go?  I’m betting the Padres figure out something for Franmil, but I also bet on Zune over an iPod.  2019 Projections:  41/18/49/.257/2 in 341 ABs

80. Lewis Brinson – here’s nothing to Brinson’s line to point to to (stutterer!) get super jazz-handsy about.  I guess if you’re jamming square pegs in round holes, he hit .239 when he returned in the 2nd half vs. .186 in the 1st half.  He also had a higher BABIP and a still miserable strikeout rate.  You want a crazy flyer in deep leagues?  I’m not standing in your way of glory, but Brinson feels at least a half season away if not a full one.  Of course, if he shows improvement in the spring, I might be able to build up a little more enthusiasm.  2019 Projections:  44/15/52/.229/8 in 456 ABs

  1. Let Us Praise Famous Death Dwarves says:
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    20 team dynasty roto 7×7 with OPS/XBH/QS/holds added. rosters are 1 of each infield, 3 any OF, 1 util, 2 SP, 3 RP, 2 P and 7 BN. 5 DL and 2 NA (yahoo). 1250 max innings here (and i start 5 RP the max to get holds). we can keep 6-9 with no inflation costs. last year due to some teams having completely awful rosters we allowed 4-7 keepers and the league did in fact get much more competitive, now we’ve voted the keepers back to 6-9. also these are backloaded keepers (i usually hate doing backloaded but the bad teams were so bad we did that last year and will continue to for at least this year) so if you keep less players you REALLY get good players more than those who kept more as you’ll have rounds where the good teams don’t even draft yet. last year i kept only 4 (i WAS a good team 2 years ago too, have been top 7 every year in this league) to try to get vlad (and it worked), the other kept guys last year were c-sant, ray, kraken (sanchez C) and treat urner (had used a 1st round pick on him a few years back). normally i prefer keeping bats over pitchers, but here i have way better options at pitcher and a lot of bat types that could be replaced in draft.
    options for keepers:
    guaranteed keepers: treat urner, vlad
    possibly good keepers: kraken, r.ray, mikolas, glasnow, j.luzardo (so i have room in NA slots in case both him and vlad start year in minors)
    other lesser possible keepers: mallex, ryu
    boring easily replaceable types: jed lowrie, cron, schebler, adam frazier, longo, choo, neris, parker, c-sant

    how many/which youse keeping (i have the 14th pick in all rounds, the round i start drafting depending on how many kept)

      • Let Us Now Praise Famous Death Dwarves says:
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        @Grey: yeah that’s what i was thinking too, so rare (for me) to have that many pitchers to hitters ratio worth keeping. last year i threw away a ton more to gamble on getting vlad (and probably actually did draft ryu pretty early as you and esp rudy’s bot always love ryu). esp in an OPS/XBH where with only mallex/vlad/kraken/treat urner i will have to draft the shit outta power hitters (and closers, and 1 is fine for a 20) from this point on. however my SP for 1250 innings will be pretty much set, guys lower than those will likely be streamer level (or near it), hell those guys are strong for a 16’er.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yup, makes sense

  2. Dave D says:
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    Ha! Christian Stewart, yep, I almost drafted him but wound up with Brandon Dixon in round 50. Hahum. Good read.

      • Dave D says:
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        @Grey:

        His ADP of 351 suprised me. One guy drafted him 139 overall! Meanwhile, his CF Jacoby Jones is going cheap at 621. Could be one of the cheapest 15/15 guys ever if you can tolerate a .215-.200 BA. If Dixon actually gets a decent amount of at-bats I like his upside. Lots of value in DET and off many radars. Somebody has to be in their lineup daily.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Agreed on a lot of this, but the problem with “Somebody has to be in their lineup daily” is it doesn’t have to be the same people every day… Though, my guess it will be a lot of the time… This is why I like Niko Goodrum

          • Dave D says:
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            @Grey:

            Yeah, Goodrum seems solid value. I’m just saying I took a lot of later round fliers on Tigers. I don’t love Jordy Mercer, but as a #3 or 4 depth SS in round 43 seems like solid value to me. Fulmer seems like a decent gamble to me. His WHIP has always been low except last year but seems like a bounce back to me. Lots of cheap Tigers on my roster. Blaine Hardy ain’t a bad 46 rounder either. Rudy seems to like him apparently too.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Fulmer looks kinda meh, but if it’s late enough I guess… Is Blaine Hardy projected well in Rudy’s? I hadn’t noticed… Rudy’s projections do love guys with playing time late…

              • Dave D says:
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                @Grey:

                I thought he mentioned it but p-erhaps I just imagined it.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Could be, I don’t remember that

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Haha

                • Dave D says:
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                  @Rudy Gamble:

                  Ah, thanks, Rudy! I feel relieved that I can remain with lower expectations of the guy. Maybe I got him mixed up with Plutko or someone like that I took about 700 ADP. Sorry for the confusion. Scavenging in the DC late rounds is quite the art indeed.

  3. Bas says:
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    Sir Grey!

    Another morning of great reading. Love the rankings so far. Looooooooong reads;-)

    I’m busy to get my list down to 8 keepers in my 12 team 5×5 league.

    My list contains of: Acuna, Rizzo, Judge, Segura, Rendon, Scherzer, Ozuna, Andujar, Cain, Clevinger and Mazzara.

    I can also keep 6 or 7 and and have first picks in a reserve draft.

    I have an offer to trade Segura and Rendon for Story and countered with Segura, Andujar and Ozuna for Story.

    Would u also do Segura and Rendon for Story?

    and who would you keep after this trade (I lost my 9th round pick but have 2 10th round picks)

    Many thanks as always Sir Grey!

    Bas from Holland

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Bas: Thanks! I’d take Story, then Acuna, Rizzo, Judge, Scherzer, Ozuna then a toss up on the last few

      • Bas says:
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        @Grey:
        Thanks Sir Grey!

        So u would rather trade Rendon and Segura instead of Segura, Ozuna and Andujar?

        Both deals could get me Story.

        Bas from Holland

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          So you keep Rendon or Ozuna? I’d prefer to keep Rendon

          • Bas says:
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            @Grey:
            I think I can do either:
            Rendon/Segura for Story
            or
            Segura/Andujar/Ozuna for Story

            I would then keep Rendon or Ozuna

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I believe I have Rendon slightly higher, but depends on your team

              • Bas says:
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                @Grey:
                Ozuna would be my 3rd outfielder besides Acuna and Judge. (we play 5)

                If Rendon goes I might keep Andujar as a keeper and hope NY keep him in the line-up.
                So the question is I guess (that took a while for me to figure out, Duh!) Is Andujar a keeper in a 12 team keep max. 8 forever league.

                Thanks Sir Grey from an (again) rainy Holland

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Andujar is a keeper if you don’t keep Rendon, but I’d keep Rendon over Ozuna there

  4. Ante Galic says:
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    Grey!!!

    Fantastic top 80 OF report.

    a. Good value to be had here for sure. Or guys (like Adam Jones) will be already drafted by the time we get down to pick 200 so no need to worry about avoiding them, ageism will swallow them up.

    b. Subdued Norm MacDonald quote of the day for January 28

    1. BLIMPIE’s has started supplying subs for Delta Airlines to serve on its flights and in return, Delta’s giving BLIMPIE’s barf bags to hand out to its customers in its restaurants.

    2. Standing outside a New York City court room this week, Paula Jones was berated by passing New Yorkers who called her names such as slut and whore. Observers say that the situation grew even worse when the crowd realized who she was.

    3. Kenny G has a Christmas album this year. Hey, Happy Birthday Jesus. Hope you like crap.

    4. Serial killer Jeffrey Dahmer was attacked and killed by another inmate this week. Just before the fight, Dahmer threatened hey don’t mess with me pal, I used to eat guys like you for breakfast.

    5. Yippee! Jerry Ruben died last week. Oh, I’m sorry that should read Yippy Jerry Rubin died last week, you know of the YIP Youth International Party? Oh, okay. Sorry about that.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Bterry says:
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      @Ante Galic: Jones went well after 200 in my most recent NFBC draft. I kept passing on him late for upside arms and ended up with Margot in my OF 5 spot.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ante Galic: Thanks! A. Think the shine’s off him B. 4. Ha!

  5. Nathan says:
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    When do we start getting worried about Harper and Machado not getting signed? Something seems off. Do you think this will affect their on field production?

    • bigbear says:
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      @Nathan: I’ll get “worried” 10 days before regular season starts (i.e. about when my fantasy draft takes place). I don’t think they’ll hold out into the season. Manny wants more money than teams are willing to give. Harper seems to be taking cues from the Manny market. I would hope they are professionals and that it wouldn’t impact either. But if I had to pick one that it would negatively impact, it would be Manny.

    • Cram It says:
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      @Nathan: Spring Training is like a month away.

    • Eli Man Penguin Boy says:
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      @Nathan: there is an almost zero % chance even one of them doesn’t sign somewhere, it’s completely up to themselves. harper already turned down a 300 mil offer from WAS, these guys are being told to hold out for the most money as they are obv the best players available and both in pre-primes of career age-wise. however, at this point nearly all teams know the math on just how horrible these 10 year deals actually are, finally.

    • Peacecoast says:
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      @Nathan: only thing to worry about is the underlying market and players whining ending up in a work stoppage.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Nathan: Think they still have a ton of time, they might each have to take a couple year deals

  6. Big league choo says:
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    10 team H2H dynasty 6×6 with OBP/TB no BA

    Would you trade Jo adell for Royce Lewis or Keston hiura

    Our league favors Power guys having Hr, Tb and OBP. I’m weaker at MI with Villar, chris Taylor and cano (madrigal in minors). Think adell can be a bellinger clone with a judge ceiling whereas Lewis/hiura more 20/20 type with just over .800OPS.

    • Slappy Jack says:
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      @Big league choo: I have a nagging fear that Adell has too much Lewis Brinson in his profile.
      I like both of those dudes a little better, with a slight preference for Hiura (I believe in his hit tool)

      • The Harrow says:
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        @Slappy Jack: well brinson hasn’t had that many MLB at bats (130)and was a top end prospect still far from being able to say he sucks (if you actually doubt this go look at trout and a-roid’s career trajectories, esp a-roid’s). brinson/adell are similar in a lot of tool evaluations for sure. brinson’s 2018 (including minors) wasn’t appealing, but his MIL minors numbers and stuff before that were.

  7. Cram It says:
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    Margot’s only 24! He doesn’t strike out much and has an excellent line drive %. His exit velo and hard hit % are comparable to a lot of guys that had very good years. These are advanced stats that I don’t usually look at. Ha! so it feels like I’m fooling myself?

    Anyway, I’m looking for a 15/25 season out of him.

    • CMUTIMMAH says:
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      @Cram It: Cherry picking stats and then drafting off of those stats are the best way to make yourself feel good in the short term, and end up with the pits in the long term.

      Margot is 24. He’s not 22. Nothing about his screams “star”.

      He is going to toil in that realm of the fringe 4th OF. That guy where one month you’ll pick him up on a heater (or when SD is in Col) and you’ll end up holding him for too long. Speaking of “holding for too long” type that into google and see the auto-completes. People seem quite worried about holding in the sh*t. Don’t be like them. Don’t get Margot’d.

      • Cram It says:
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        @CMUTIMMAH: I’m not suggesting he’s going to be a star. But a 4th OF at a 6th OF price, I’ll take the chance there. He falls into that category of young guys that has a promising 1st year, takes a step back the 2nd year, and every one gives up on him the 3rd year. I like buying low on those guys. Those are my guys.

      • Cram It says:
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        @CMUTIMMAH: I’m also not cherry picking stats, I’m using the ‘advanced stats’ that everybody uses, and I typically don’t consider that stuff. So I’m certainly not drafting a guy based on all that hullabaloo.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Cram It: Now that I’ve finally *not* written a sleeper post for him, he’s bound to do well

  8. CMUTIMMAH says:
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    3 years later, Grey finally agrees with me on Joc Pederson! You sure he isn’t going to steal 30 bags this year? :-P

    How many 3 true outcome guys have been consistently good in fantasy?

    Souza – woof
    Pederson – Bow-wow
    Crush Davis – Crash n burn

    I mean, Chris Carter and Adam Dunn, maintained some level of fantasy impacts for a limited period. But let’s face it, for the most part, being called a three true outcome player is kind of the fantasy kiss of death. Cust kayin’ (Jack Cust was another one!)

    That being said, I’ll take:
    -Schebler at his value, buying lowdue to those post injury stats from last year
    -Niko Goodrum just has a solid name (I need an intervention, he’s still a Tiger, and the Tigers are going to be dog dookie)
    -Jake Bauers is seriously intriguing this year. He’s that later round flyer guy that could be worthless or could play like a 5th rounder. I can see myself trying to guess what round to draft him in, while looking at the draft pick clock and hearing that louder bass “Booop Beeep Booop Beeep”. DAMNIT CHLOE! SHOULD I TAKE HIM NOW OR RISK IT ANOTHER ROUND!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @CMUTIMMAH: Are you talking about Chris Davis? He had some huge years, just got old… Souza couldn’t stay healthy and Pederson’s been fine for where you’ve drafted him for the past few years, sure he returned value…

    • Let Us Now Praise Famous Death Dwarves says:
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      @CMUTIMMAH: joc was absolutely value if drafted within like 80 of his last year ADP, easily. i actually dropped him fairly early in the year in an NL only, and got him late as shit even there. had i held him i’d have done even better, but his playing time early in the year was straight up horrible.

      • CMUTIMMAH says:
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        @Let Us Now Praise Famous Death Dwarves: Call it my perspective, but the leagues I am in Joc was overdrafted… and at least created a break even in value.

        I just meant that Grey projected 3 steals, the past few years he projected him for reasonable steals.

        And my three true outcomes not being sustainable – Chris Davis was a very hard guy to judge. He was under or severely over drafted during his 6 season “useful” streak. It might be just as common to see normal pattern hitters miss their projections, however, I feel like guys that K a lot are prone to large fluctuations in performance year to year.

        On a personal level, I think I’ve been burned by all of the guys above, so I could just be jaded. Pound Sign VENDETTA. Pound Sign SELFREALIZATION. I’m I pound signing right?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha, I hear ya

  9. Redbirds says:
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    6 offense categories hr runs rbi avg sb and ops. Having a hard time deciding who too keep Jesus A round 10 Matt carp with 2 bag eligibility round 7 or Miguel a round 10. Who do I keep just one. Your razzball team rocks!!!

  10. Ace of Spades says:
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    Grey

    Got offered a trade in a 14 team keeper ( keep up to 11 ) auction league mixed standard roto cats

    He asked me for Merrifield $12, and Hoskins $12
    He offered me Soto $10, Dahl $11. and one of these three pitchers ( Nikolas $7, Matz $5, or Lucheesi $10 )

    currently my ever changing keeper list looks like this: Y Molina $3, Abreu $23, Hoskins $12, Cruz $20, Merrifield $12, A Mondesi $10, Vladdy Jr. $10, C Mullins $10, Palka $10, Trienen $13 and L Castillo $12

    Also, I sent out another offer to a different team where I offered Merrifield and Trienen to a team and asked back for his Javy Baez $17 . He is currently considering this. The only negative about this deal is that next season will be Baez’s fourth season since drafted and his price will double to $34 in 2020.

    So was wondering 1. do you like the first trade offer? and 2. if you do, which of those three pitchers would you prefer? 3. what do you think of the Baez offer? and finally 4. given the choice between the two of these deals which one would you make?

    As always thanks in advance Grey for all that you and the guys/girls at Razzball do. Would also welcome any thoughts from fellow commenters as well on these possible trades.

    • CMUTIMMAH says:
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      @Ace of Spades: a Keeper league and I’m getting Soto AND Dahl AND Mikolas?

      Yeah, I’d lose Rhys and Whit over it.

      What a world to live in where Nelly Cruz costs twice the price of Soto.

      • CMUTIMMAH says:
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        @CMUTIMMAH: PS – Whit is 30 years old. It’s easy to forget this because he’s only been around a few years in the show.

        I think Rhys is what he is. A guy that’s going to hit 30+ dingers and bat .255. Great option at $12.. but he’s all steak no sizzle.

        Soto is 20. Soto can’t even drink yet. Sure he’s from the Dominican and might actually be a 38 year old… but he still can’t drink here legally until he comes clean. He walked nearly as much as he K’d. He carried a .923 OPS over 116 games. That’s got some real sizzle. Soto, solo, would have been enough to make this deal.

        And then there’s Grey’s baby. His mon’amie. Grey loves Dahl while the Rockies love having Dahl. Grey is the weird girl that’s in love with the guy that is in the friendzone of the head cheerleader. Wait… this analogy can only lead to Grey getting a makeover and getting the guy… when, it’s Dahl that needs the makeover. Maybe we’re all ugly on the inside. But either way – Grey loves Dahl, and if he gets playing time, I think everyone will love Dahl.

        Now, Mikolas? A pitcher that was above average for $7? Yaasss queen.

        Do it.

        • bigbear says:
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          @CMUTIMMAH: Ha! Great write up. And agreed. I’m liking Soto more and more…

  11. Gonzo_The_Great says:
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    Man, that whole tier of guys like Pillar, Grichuck and Polanco could have also been called, “That guy who is in your last OF spot who you think about dropping but then hits a dinger so you put it off until next week.” Saying that as someone who never ended up dropping (or even benching) Polanco despite thinking about it on a weekly basis last year (and who did the same thing with Pillar the year before!)

  12. Bterry says:
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    Harper to Phillies?
    Or victus just making bats for Harper at every possible landing spot?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Bterry: Philly sent the Phanatic and Gritty to talk to him

      • The Harrow says:
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        @Grey: just noticed PHI has arguably the weirdest mascots across 2 sports now. actually hockey does have some really weird other ones though.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Gritty looks like he has to tell his neighbors he has an arrest record when he moves

      • Bterry says:
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        @Grey: ha. Harrow is def right on those two mascots. Can’t think of a city with a stranger pair.

  13. knucks says:
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    10 Team OBP and SLG cats (no AVG)

    Keep 5… Who ya got?

    Acuna
    Harper
    Bellinger
    Soto
    Machado
    Treat

    • Mike L says:
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      @knucks: Who the F plays in your league if you can hold 5 of those 6? Guess you’d have to lose Bellinger or Soto but I’d drop Machado cuz he’s a punk!

      • knucks says:
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        @Mike L: I came in 4th last year. My pitching was horrid.

        Also, another owner has Trout and Mookie and can keep them forever. So my goal is to somehow take him down this year.

    • bigbear says:
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      @knucks: Belly.

      • bigbear says:
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        @bigbear: As in lose Belly.

      • knucks says:
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        @Grey: Sweet, thx gents

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  14. Fat Toad says:
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    I vote we skip the next 40ish OFers and go straight to SPs. See you tomorrow, Nola, Severino, and Kluber.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Fat Toad: You’re gonna love 167 thru 178

  15. Mike

    Mike says:
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    *Hides ice pick behind back…slowly backs out of the room*

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Mike: Waiting for the Netflix 4-part docu-series about my prospect writer

      • Mike

        Mike says:
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        haha, I’m enjoying the Bundy tapes doc…(no homo*)

        *homicidal maniac

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          HA! Yeah, it was crazy how recently as the 1980’s, people were like, “He killed a few people, so let’s give him carte blanche on the run of the law library.”

          • Mike

            Mike says:
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            for real…Guys, where’s Bundy? Oh, he’s in there. Um…no, he isn’t. Oh shit!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Haha… Should be called, Ted Bundy, White Privilege.

              The judge says to him, “I wish we could’ve met under different circumstances.” Dude killed 40 people!

              • Mike

                Mike says:
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                Unbelievable

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  You can almost imagine someone describing him for his quirks, and not that he killed like 40 women

                  • Mike

                    Mike says:
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                    Yes exactly! There’s a professor from University of Toronto by the name of Jordan Peterson who posts his full lectures on YouTube. His talks on narcissistic psychopaths are incredible and dive into all of those “charming” traits that they seem to possess. He actually uses the Disney movies Pinocchio and The Lion King to discuss psychology…brilliant stuff.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      I’ll have to check it out… It’s kinda interesting how much you can get away with if you’re considered ‘handsome’ or ‘charming…’ I mean, Ted Bundy basically killed a bunch of people, but wasn’t bad on the eyes to some people so people just shrugged him off…

                    • Mike

                      Mike says:
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                      Scary stuff

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Totes

  16. Mike L says:
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    Someone mentioned Brinson earlier. I still believe in him. Problem is, Im not sure I believe in the Marlins. But as soon as I dump him in dynasty he’ll go on a tear.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Mike L: He’ll be up soon in the rankings

  17. Boomer19 says:
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    Good morning Grey. I can keep either Mondesi or Guerrero for two years in my 5×5 roto league (14 teams). Who would you rather have? I know Mondesi for this year but not sure how much the extra year would play? Thanks.

      • Boomer19 says:
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        Thanks Grey! Enjoy the day.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Thanks!

  18. Boomer19 says:
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    In my other 12 team roto league (5×5) I have to pick 6 keepers. My choices are:

    Acuna (keep for 1 year)
    Soto (keep for two years)
    Guerrero (2 years)
    Corbin (2 years)
    Castellanos (2 years)
    Dahl (2 years)
    Strasburg (1 year)
    Cain (1 year)
    Eloy (2 years)
    Abreu (1 year)

    Currently I am leaning Acuna, Soto, Guerrero, Corbin, Castellanos and Dahl. Your thoughts would be appreciated.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Acuna (keep for 1 year)
      Soto (keep for two years)
      Guerrero (2 years)
      Corbin (2 years)
      Dahl (2 years)
      Castellanos

  19. Squat Cobblers says:
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    Love your continued excellence Albright!

    Off topic but… What happens to Yolmer (and/or T Anderson) if CHW signs Machado? I ask cause I’m about to draft either Yolmer or Renato.

    THanks Grey!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Think Yolmer gets screwed… Not sure where else Manny would play… They’re not benching Tim Anderson I don’t think

      • Squat Cobblers says:
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        @Grey: Just putting Yolmer in left and Anderson at 3rd seems simple enough. Just not sure if the White Sox think this is a bad idea due to poor defense

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Does Yolmer play OF?

      • Squat Cobblers says:
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        @Grey: apologies for jumping the gun with this query, but…if you had to pick TWO of these schlubs after pick 400 in a DC..which two?

        Pomeranz
        Fedde
        Erlin
        T Ross
        Roark
        Yonny
        Odorizzi
        Shoemaker
        LeBlanc
        Merrill Kelly

        Thanks again!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I like Shoemaker and then bleh… I guess try Kelly

          • Squat Cobblers says:
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            @Grey: You’re the goods Grey!

            You gotta be right up there on the Mount Rushmore of Fantasy…along with My Pen(is Mighti-er)!!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Haha, weird place to put in parentheticals!

  20. Bitter Beerface says:
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    Grey,

    Ahhhhh Brandon (Take away the fantasy owner’s shoelaces and) Belt. The streakiest of the streakers. Is this guy the ultimate waiver tease? He had 14 HRs last season; 4 of them came in 4 straight games in April, and 4 came in 4 straight games in May, with 1 HR in the nearly-month in between. And then, according to math, there’s 5 more HRs out there in the other 103 games he played. Ohhhhh I hate this guy! He always gets me! And he epitomizes everything about those darn Giants! (Tigers fan, lingering hate from 2012, he didn’t even do anything against us, what do I care?!)

    But you look at the poo-poo platter that starts around Belt and goes to Bruce, I’m taking Christy Stewart or Manuel Margot’s potential over these waiver wire doormats. And your tiers are perfect, however a more eloquent scribe would have dubbed thy tiers: “OLD CRAP” and “FRESH CRAP”.

    In a 12-team league with 5 OF starting slots, this is the range where you’re digging for that one gem to complete your roster. This is where you get your hands dirty! *Snaps glove* I’m gonna keep on digging, Grey, and leave this pile of crap for the other drafters.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha, agreed on Belt, he’s the worst — Old crap, indeed…

      This is around that or a 5th OF, which is usually dropped within a week of drafting him

      • Bitter Beerface says:
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        @Grey: Yes, totally agree, these are flyers at best. And you see comments re: these flyers and you’re probably thinking “So what do you want me to do, arrange the poo for you so it’s more appealing??? Geeeeeez!”

        Great work, hope I don’t come off as a heckler. I just watched “Bill Burr destroys hecklers” on youtube over the weekend. Let me just say, the entire city of Philadelphia didn’t sit comfortably for a week!

        Looking forward to tomorrow’s rankings, but anxiously waiting for your starters’ rankings. They’re the best in the business! So…NO PRESSURE, GREY!!!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Damn, so much pressure for no pressure!

  21. JM says:
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    I’m a bit surprised at Franmil Reyes’s ranking. I lived in SD last year so I got to watch him play a lot and he looked to me like a middle-class man’s Aaron Judge. I can easily see him go .265/25/100, even in Petco. Why so low?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Where is he playing?

      • JM says:
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        @Let Us Now Praise Famous Death Dwarves: @Grey: Ahhh I see what you did there….

        So…assuming he stays in SD…would you be less inclined to keep him (12-team/15-keepers) over someone boring like, say Trevor Williams? or a young pitcher like Sean Newcomb or Julio Urias?

        • JM says:
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          @JM: no idea how I @’d Death Dwarves on there, but what’s up Death Dwarves?

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            He’s staying in San Diego, I’m saying where is he playing if the OF is Myers, Franchy, Margot and Renfroe?

            • JM says:
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              @Grey: [rubbing chin thinking emoji] I think he’s better than all those guys save maybe Myers….but I definitely see your point. Thanks!

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Ha, No problem

  22. LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood says:
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    Here we go 2019…Grey

    Can’t wait until the Phillies sign Harper and Muchado.!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, that would be nice!

  23. Chris D says:
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    Dynasty trade thoughts Grey:

    I’m deep in OF (Mookie, Beni, Blackman, Kris Davis, Puig)
    and need some protection at 2b behind Albies (all
    I have is Travis Shaw who is currently my starting 3b) I have a legit championship shot this year.

    Think of moving Sano and Puig for Moncada and the third overall pick in our draft (I also own the 6th overall pick: Player Targets would be one of Bart or Kieboom in top 3 and then guys like Gorman, Paddack, or any of those top first year player guys in that range)

    Do you think that’s a good deal to make, or is it better to keep the OF depth, roll with my options I have for backups and try and snag a FA in the draft like Villar who is available?

    Thanks as always for your great insight!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      That is not a good deal

      • Chris D says:
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        @Grey: thanks Grey, I was a 50/50 split going into this one. My idea was Moncada, if he ever figures his shit out, can put up Puig like numbers and Sano I’ve kind of moved on from after last year, but can’t just cut an no one seems to want him in a trade (I’ve tried Sano for Moncada but was shot down). I guess my brain thought this seemed like a good idea because I can add some possible bounce back value in Moncada and grab a some nice pieces for the future with two top 6 picks

  24. BIg Perm says:
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    What’s your take on my man Yo Cespedes? I’m in pick 400 of my NFBC and thining of grabbing him now …

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’ll go over him tomorrow, he’s not due back until midseason

      • Patrick Leon says:
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        @Grey: Thanks!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  25. Jason says:
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    Keeper deadline approaching Thursday night in 10-team H2H keeper. I’m currently keeping Abreu (1B) Baez (SS), Albies (2B), Marte (OF), Hoskins (OF), Castellanos (OF), and Ozuna (OF).

    I have Segura (SS) on the borderline. Would you keep Segura over any of these? I also have the chance to move Albies to gain a starter. I figure if I keep Segura, I’d move Baez to 2B. I wanted to get your thoughts on where Segura ranks for you as compared to these OF. Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Segura over Castellanos

  26. Hot stove says:
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    Grey

    Would you trade Yu for A. Reyes? Long term value

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sure

  27. Gonzo says:
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    FML! I’m trying to pry Eddie Rosario off a new owner added to a 10-tm AL-Only keeper, 5×5. Draft format is hybrid- there’s three rounds of picks starting after two rounds of auction, then the rest of the draft is auction again.

    I originally offered him my second-overall pick (really the 3rd round if you include auction bids) for Rosario straight up, but made a similar move for Devers with another team instead. I’ve since traded for more picks and have six to play with, but my lone 3rd round pick is obv gone. He said he doesn’t want to make a move trading away Rosario unless he gets an offer similar to the one he had before.

    So I offered my fourth-round pick (12th overall) and seventh-round pick (30th overall) for Rosario and he still declined. Should I upgrade that seventh-round pick to the 22nd overall? This is a deep AL-only with 23-man rosters, no bench.

    Thanks in advance <3

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, do 22nd overall

  28. Sherwood Hayes says:
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    Grey if you where to trade G.Stanton in a 12 team head to head league the favours SP, who would you expect to get in return?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      At least a top 5-7 SP

  29. Sherwood Hayes says:
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    Grey

    If you where to deal G.Stanton in a 12 team h2h dynasty league that favours SP, who would expect to get in return?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Answered above

  30. Crazy J says:
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    I always like adding (then subtracting) a little Randal Grandal! Joc probably has some good upside to him this season too, but then is Toles coming up? What about Verdugo? I guess Pollack squashes that. So not happy with that signing, although in all fairness, he killed Dodger pitching so better they don’t have to face him!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d picture Verdugo getting a bunch of ABs if he gets traded… Dodgers just added Pollock, they don’t seem to want to play anyone but vets…

  31. Paul Goldschmidt says:
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    For my final keeper do I go with Votto, Castellanos or Edwin Diaz?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Who else are you keeping?

  32. Marty's Farerwell Tour says:
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    Off topic advice please. I’m starting a blog (about local beer scene in Indy) and wondering about using my real name or going anonymous? If I remember correctly, you wrote anonymously due to job related factors. I don’t think that’s a concern for me – just don’t want my beer spit into. For fun, no monetary expectations.

    And of course thanks for all of the great baseball advice. This site has helped me immensely over the years, especially in my two 20 -team leagues.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I see no upside in using your real name, tbh

      Good luck with it!

      • Marty's Farewell Tour says:
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        @Grey: Thanks Grey. Your responses are always appreciated. Not sure how you do it.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

Comments are closed.