The top 40 starters for 2022 fantasy baseball fall roughly in the 75 to 125 overall for those of you who are wondering where we are overall, and, of course, when the rankings are done I will be along with a top 500 overall to show you exactly where we are. Think of this set of starters as your number twos and number threes, but, again, I will have a pitchers’ pairing tool to help with that too. I give and you receive. Ho, ho, ho, that’s me giving and you receiving. Also, our subscriptions are up and running, and that comes with our online Fantasy Baseball War Room. Here’s Steamer’s 2022 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2022 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers. All projections included here are mine, and where I see tiers starting and stopping are included. Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2022 fantasy baseball:

NOTE: All 2022 fantasy baseball projections are based on a 162-game season, and will be until we hear definitively there will be less games, due to the CBA. Also, I’m going on the assumption the NL is getting the DH.

NOTE II: All my rankings are currently available on Patreon for the price of a Starbucks coffee, if you get one of those extra grande frappuccino jobbers. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out over the next month, and get them all now.

NOTE III: Free agents are listed as just that and not yet projected. Once a guy signs, I will write out their blurb and add in projections, or remove them, if they sign in an unfavorable place. They are ranked currently where I think they might be if they sign on for a full-time job.

CONTINUE BACK TO THE TOP 20 STARTERS FOR 2022 FANTASY BASEBALL

21. Max Fried – This tier started in the top 20 starters for 2022 fantasy baseball. This tier goes until Fried. I call this tier, “Bon varyäge.” As for Fried, was out last year on Fried, which sounds like a New Year’s Resolution that I actually followed through on. Didn’t love Fried’s strikeouts coming down and his walks remaining where they were (3+ BB/9). Welp, he fixed all that shizz. He’s now basically Luis Castillo on a better team. That’s a compliment, by the way. Fried also has a bit more upside than I gave him credit for previously. Not enormous, which is why he’s ranked here, instead of the top 20. He also has less downside than I originally thought. His 86.5 MPH exit velo and 5th best ground ball rate explains a lot of his profile. Terrible contact and the ball on the ground and, well, it’s hard to go too wrong. 2022 Projections: 13-8/3.36/1.08/181 in 185 IP

22. Sean Manaea – This is a new tier. This tier goes until Rogers. I call this tier, “Get fitted for a tuxedo shirt now.” After the season, there’s gonna be so much excitement and congratulations rolling in from your fantasy baseball championships, you won’t have time to get fitted for your tuxedo shirt then, so now’s the time. This tier is gonna get yo’self some championships. This is the tier where you’re going to win or lose your league. This is the tier last year where you found Burnes, Urias, Gausman, and Pablo Lopez, who was good until an injury. Okay, they’re not all gems, I also had Paddack and Luzardo in there. But these are the starters I am most excited about and will be drafting repeatedly without caution over and over again and again, same sentiment, same sentiment, same sentiment! I love all of these starters. You’ll notice some sleeper posts. In case you get the one starter this year that ends up like Luzardo or Paddack, I’m not advising it, but you could prolly just draft three starters from this tier and stream, and be fine in shallower leagues (or maybe even deeper ones). At least three of these guys will be in the top 20 starters next year. Also, you might find yourself thinking, “Yo, Grey, if I were a female or into males, you and I would snog, but some of these guys are ranked way too high.” That’s fine, draft them when you need to, i.e., look at their ADP and draft them a round or two before that.

This tier this year (listen to you rhyming!) is maybe the best this tier has ever been. To help with my pitchers’ pairing tool update, I’ve kept most tier names the same (you’ll get over your outrage), and looking at this tier of “Guys I Gotta Get!” is just exhilarating. I feel like I have Viagra rushing through every extremity. My thumbs are hard. I cannot express to you how happy each of these guys makes me. People out there drafting a fading Gerrit Cole and I’m taking Manaea and Manoah, and gonna whoa-ah all the way to the bank-ah. Hey, boyo, I’m in West Side Story and “Krup you!” if you think I care what you think of me drafting Manaea and Manoah.

As for Manaea, already gave you my Sean Manaea sleeper. It was written while getting on the Double Dutch Bus. UPDATE: Traded to the Padres. 2022 Projections: 13-8/3.47/1.11/208 in 193 IP

23. Dylan Cease – Already gave you my Dylan Cease sleeper. It was left warming in the oven until Dad comes home. 2022 Projections: 15-6/3.58/1.12/241 in 184 IP

24. Alek Manoah – From Manaea to Manoah, The Battle of This Man’s Mano a Manoah. Inside the front cover, signed, “Keep your feet on the ground, and  keep reaching for the stars. — Casey Kasem.” Is it weird that I signed my Sean Manaea/Alek Manoah book with a quote from Casey Kasem? Maybe I just like guys who are geniuses at counting down. Okay, if it’s not clear, I nearly wrote a sleeper post for all the guys in this tier, and Manoah was no different. I actually went back through my sleepers a few times to see if I didn’t miss it, because I could’ve sworn I wrote it. Guess I was thinking he was priced correctly and no reason to apply blinkers to his stats. Watched a lot of Manoah this past year, and it was mostly to ogle his cougar mom. But between random shots of his mom cheering in all her glory, I was taken by Manoah’s stuff. He had a top 7% HardHit% in the league, and his 94 MPH fastball and 81 MPH slider accounted for 63% of his pitches, and they produced BAAs of .200 and .146, respectively. Or rather disrespectively to hitters. His third pitch was a 93 MPH sinker that had a .211 BAA, and all the whiff rates were gorge. His 10.2 K/9 and 3.22 BB/9 was in 111 2/3 IP last year. That was from a 23-year-old rookie! Yo, his mom isn’t the only thing this guy’s got that’s pretty dope. Alek Manoah and Alek Mommamia can get on my team any day! 2022 Projections: 12-9/3.67/1.07/187 in 161 IP

25. Shane McClanahan – Already gave you my Shane McClanahan sleeper. It wore ski pants everywhere. 2022 Projections: 14-8/3.43/1.17/189 in 163 IP

28. Shane Baz – Here’s my Shane Baz fantasy. It was written while singing, “Zombie,” to a can of cranberries. UPDATE: Has loose bodies in his elbow. A look inside his elbow: *David Caruso wipes off his sunglasses* “This isn’t the Rays…of sunshine I hoped it was.” I agree with the David Caruso doing an episode of CSI: Miami inside Baz’s elbow and I’ve removed him from my rankings. Do not draft him. 2022 Projections: 10-8/3.64/1.14/163 in 130 IP

27. Trevor Rogers – Debated myself on where to rank Rogers this year for longer than I care to admit (72 seconds). The Jeff Goldblum in the ointment is how much he was overused last year. Will be watching him carefully in spring training, but, as long as he looks fine, I’ll be drafting him. A more dangerous hedge than The Shining? P to the herhaps, but Rogers only threw 31 2/3 IP in the 2nd half last year and had a 3.69 ERA. The concern is very real though. He had one game in September vs. the Nats where he averaged 92 MPH on his fastball (down from 95) and it was one of his worst games. He bounced back nicely and had a 95 MPH fastball in the next game against the same team and tossed 10 Ks. This feels a bit granular, but that’s sorta what we’ll be looking for in the spring. It, honestly, might be too late by that point, so I could see the leap of faith, which is why I ranked him here vs. the next tier or even the one after. This is a lot about why to worry, but why we shouldn’t worry is Rogers has some of the best stuff in baseball. If he proves he can throw 150+ IP without a problem, he’s gonna be a top 12 starter next year. 2022 Projections: 10-8/3.30/1.16/176 in 151 IP

28. Nathan Eovaldi – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Framber. I call this tier, “Sideways bosom.” There’s safety in numbers. The number three, for unstints, is safe. The number 3 also looks like a sideways bosom. What’s more comforting! These pitchers should be a fantasy number 3 like a sideways bosom. This is a repeat of last year’s fantasy number three tier name, because I like to keep things samesies for when I put together my pitching draft tool. It makes things easier for me.

As for Eovaldi, let’s talk first about drafting. ADP is a crock of shizz. No one knows anything, as William Goldman once said of Hollywood. People even know less in October and November of the previous year, and that’s when a lot of ADP is formed. What makes Eovaldi, say, a good pick at 150th overall but not at 100th overall? Because a few geniuses in October of last year drafted him around there? What a joke. Then people in January look at that ADP and continue to draft similarly. Then people in March look at that and say nonsense like, “Can’t believe you reached for Eovaldi before the 10th round, and at 110 overall.” Those are the same people who get to July and are looking to see what kind of fantasy football content we have. If you can draft Eovaldi at pick 175 because, say, Yahoo has him ranked around there and you’re in a league with people who follow the site’s rankings, then by all means. Wait as long as you want, but I’ve never been in-season thinking, “Well, my team sucks, but I sure got some great draft value!” As for Eovaldi, Part II: This One’s Really About Eovaldi, he has a 9.6 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 in his last 230 IP, and is incredibly durable in his career. He’s about as safe a number three as you’re gonna find. 2022 Projections: 12-8/3.71/1.18/201 in 188 IP

29. Chris Bassitt – Not only do I want to draft Bassitt in all my leagues, I want to draft two more guys who are Bassitt-like. If I could have a whole rotation of Bassitts, I would. Ya know how they call the water behind right in San Fran, McCovey Cove? I’m going to write a letter to the A’s to call the pitcher’s rubber, the Bassitt Mound, and if they say no, I’ll put my finger to their lips and say, “Hush, puppy.” I love Chris Bassitt! There, I said it. Last year, I wrote a sleeper post for him (and Eovaldi too, bee tee dubya). This year, I’m professing my undying love for Chris on the Bassitt Mound. There’s safety in number threes, and Bassitt is about as safe as they come. UPDATE: Traded to the Mets for JT Ginn and Adam Oller. Kinda cool that MLB went through a nasty labor dispute to come out on the other side and nothing’s changed as far as teams quitting before the season even starts. The A’s should just ask for their mail to be delivered to Vegas, last one out shut off the lights. What a jizzoke the shizzoke that’s going on in Oakland. A’s better go back to cardboard fans this year. No one else gonna be there. Any hoo! Bassitt in Citifield, riding the Starter #3 pony, sounds like a dream, and I’m glad I’ve already drafted him in a league or three. 2022 Projections: 13-8/3.41/1.08/172 in 171 IP

30. Marcus Stroman – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Cubs. Not sure who Stroman pissed off, besides Italians, but going to the Cubs right now seems like purgatory on earth. Not sure what I’m talking about? It was revealed he “liked” a tweet about an Italian-American reporter that called the reporter a WOP. As a pizza bagel, I am half Italian, and we take our insults very serious. (I’m saying this in my head with a heavy Jersey accent to help you hear it.) Maybe Stroman wanted to go to Chicago for some other reason. Maybe Stroman heard how disrespectful Chicago pizza was to Italians and couldn’t wait to get there. Hey, I’m just askin’ questions here. Any hoo! The great thing about Stroman, besides him always leaving a reservation open at an Italian restaurant, is he’s great just about anywhere, and Wrigley will put that to the test. Ground balls will ground balls wherever. Honestly, I think he could overcome Coors. An 8 K/9, low-2 BB/9, 50+% ground ball rate is what I’d take from every number three. Just don’t expect too much, and you’ll be pleasantly surprised.” And that’s me quoting me! 2022 Projections: 9-11/3.54/1.13/162 in 191 IP

31. Tyler Mahle – Not the prototypical sideways bosom. His command isn’t pristine, but he has way more upside than some of the others above him. He’s less a sideways bosom and more of a number three like the Total Recall bosom. There’s some sexy upside here but there’s also a bit more downside. The park he pitches in sucks dog balls, and the command was 3.2 BB/9 last year. The good news is he was long considered a high control pitcher prior to the majors, and he just turned 27. There could be another level here. T. Mahle might not cause indigestion, but could be a top 15 starter. Wrote a sleeper post for him last year, and I’m once again telling you the love is still very strong.

Find myself giving more of a benefit to the doubt for pitchers who were better in the 1st half last year than 2nd, and Mahle’s splits jump off the page. He lost velocity in the 2nd half and his K/9 went from 11.1 to 9.8. Throwing 180 IP last year vs. 47 2/3 IP the year before might’ve played the biggest factor, which isn’t related to the ‘biggest fact that’s not fiction,’ and that’s Mr. Belvedere missing a week of work because he sat on his testicles. Snopes fact checked! 2022 Projections: 10-10/3.64/1.19/206 in 172 IP

32. Framber Valdez – Okay, this might mean nothing, or maybe I’m just not sure what it means, but I found it interesting. Framber has a 27.4% chase rate and only 54.1% Contact on those pitches. That’s absurdly low. That’s basically saying very few people are chasing, but just as many people connect, i.e., hitters aren’t swinging at balls, and with good reason. Other guys who are down there for both are FreddyKBB, McCullers and The Exiled Nazi. I can think of reasons why this is a good list and why it’s not. Other guys mentioned have insanely great SwStr% and Framber does not. What’s odd about Framber is that it seems like hitters don’t swing at anything from him. His Swing% is 2nd in the league to his teammate, the aforementioned McCullers, Cullers, Cullers. What I think this is, and this is a guess, hitters aren’t picking up the ball out of Framber’s hand, so they don’t know whether it’s going to be a good pitch or not. Watching him pitch, though, and I don’t think that reason tracks. Also, like his teammate, McCullers, Framber should only throw the curve, and maybe what makes the curve effective is how well it tunnels with his sinker/fastball.

Ya know, if there’s anyone out there reading this and is good at math, there’s one equation that has yet to be written that would be very helpful, something like an xK/9 or xK% (i.e., expected strikeouts). Not sure how it would work. Something like stabilizing with the league average chase rate%, K%, SwStr%, then comparing that to each player, and, well, I just fell asleep thinking about it, but if you’re so inclined. My guess is Framber’s xK% or xK/9 would be lower than his real K% or K/9. Any hoo! There’s a lot of shrugging through this blurb, but sometimes a guy who is a career 8.7 K/9, 3.74 ERA pitcher is a 8.7 K/9, 3.74 ERA pitcher. 2022 Projections: 12-7/3.71/1.22/171 in 177 IP

33. Ian Anderson – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 60 starters for 2022 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Raining cold water on the pants tent.” This is just a tier of guys who could be good, but Redd Foxx would call you a big ol’ dummy if you drafted any of them. Ain’t no thing in my chicken and wing combo, but, hell, if I’m paying full price for any of these guys. I am ye of little faith while listening to Faith No More after ripping Faith Evans out of my Word Up magazine, while guessing LIARS every day for Wordle.

Had Ian Anderson at exactly the same spot last year saying not to draft him, and here we are again. If Ian Anderson were cold, he’d be playing 3rd base for the Marlins, because he’d be Brrian Anderson. I’m so sorry. I will walk through a car wash and let it wash the dad jokes out of me. I’ve shamed myself! Okay, let’s keep this simple like your uncle, Burl, who thinks you can use the word “mayo” to shorten the word “mayor.” This is the 2nd year in a row I’m out on Ian Anderson, and I just can’t get past the deflated BABIP. Maybe he really can produce such janky contact that hitters’ BABIPs are suppressed. I don’t think so, which is why he’s in this tier of guys I don’t want. His HardHit% is pretty average; his BAAs are pretty average; his Ks are average; his command is average, and he’s, well, pretty average. 2022 Projections: 10-9/3.89/1.27/160 in 161 IP

34. Yu Darvish – One way to look at Darvish is: Charlie Morton, who was drafted much higher so he came with disappointment. Darvish’s fastball is 94.5 MPH, and the K/9 was 10.8 with a 2.4 BB/9. The letdown shouldn’t matter. Yet, Darvish screwed us good last year. Or rather Yu screwed you, as I told everyone to not draft him. (Side note for full disclosure: In one auction league, I was going by Rudy’s values and Darvish went for under where he was supposed to go, so I drafted him for, like, $23 last year, and, honestly, I’d do that again. If Darvish got 13 wins last year, he would’ve been about the 25th best starter overall.) With all that said and why I’m still out on Darvish, I don’t know the bottom. He lost Ks and velocity last year. Was still plenty usable, but what if that was the first year of rapid decline vs. just a new Darvish that is still usable? I don’t know, which is why I’m out. As I’ve said a billionety times before, there might be roughly 50 starters overall I’d draft. You need five to six starters, and in shallower leagues, you can stream, so less starters is fine. You don’t need headaches if there’s so many options. With shortstops, there might be ten total you have to get. Starters are similar to outfielders, there’s dozens of options. 2022 Projections: 12-9/3.89/1.11/196 in 171 IP

35. Shohei Ohtani – Already went over him in the top 10 for 2022 fantasy baseball as a hitter and pitcher with projections for both. Small explanation, this ranking is for Ohtani, the pitcher. If you have a league where it treats him as two separate players and you’re looking at drafting the starter, and starter-only Ohtani, then I’m not on board. As the hitter and pitcher? Sure! As just the hitter? Giddy up on your mop dressed like a pony! As just the pitcher? I’m not down, ya jive? He’s an impact bat, and the Los Angeles of not Los Angeles Angels have to know how special he is as a hitter. They can’t possibly be that dumb, can they? So, if it’s ever between hitting and pitching, they’re gonna go with him as a hitter. I think he can get a full season of at-bats, but innings are different. He could get anywhere from 60 IP to 120 IP as a pitcher with the brakes coming hard if he ever tweaks anything. I don’t know if there’s any leagues that treat him separately still, so this might be irrelevant. His projections in the top 10 for 2022 fantasy baseball.

36. Chris Sale

“Siri, please make a note to refer to Sale every time a pitcher is returning from Tommy John surgery.”
“Grey, there are twelve hospitals in your area for surgery but none are having a sale.”

Damn, Siri with the truth serum.

“Grey, there are no vendors of Truth’s Sea Rum. Would you like the phone number for Niko Goodrum?”
“Umm…”
“Dialing now…”

So, Sale should be remembered every time a pitcher is supposed to return in “April/May” It doesn’t ever happen. He did eventually come back in August and pitched just about as effective as he always had for 42 2/3 IP in-season and nine more innings in the postseason. “Just about as” is doing some lifting there on “effectiveness” but even 80% of Chris Sale is still Chris Sa, which sounds like Chris on a pizza, and that’s delicious! I bet I know what Sale uses to cut that pizza.

Sale’s 11 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 3.16 ERA (3.35 xFIP, if you care) are all plenty elite enough, if not quite as elite as Sale was pre-surgery. So, this year I expect a continuation of his newfound solid-but-not-elite levels or a tad bit more or less. Either way, it’s hard not to envision him being at or around a number one for 150-ish IP. UPDATE: Stress fracture in his rib cage and it will be weeks, not days, and now I have a stress fracture in my brain. I’ve moved his projections down and I would no longer draft him, and would like to trade you the shares I already have. Who wants some? We got a Sale sale! 2022 Projections: 7-4/3.34/1.11/119 in 96 IP

37. Luis Castillo – Don’t love the walk rate that went up year-over-year, and the strikeouts that went down. What I still like? To incorrectly pronounce his last name. Also, his K/9 and ground ball rate, as mentioned in the Webb blurb, is still at least a number two to three starter vs. something I would’ve touch with a nine-foot pole that had ten one-inch straws taped on its end. There’s ways to succeed in Great American, and this great Dominican is doing it by keeping the ball down. Eugenio Suarez at short prolly cost him at least 0.30 on his 3.98 ERA last year, and maybe five years on his life from the stress. “On a force-out at 2nd, where do I toss it?” That’s Eugenio to the groans of everyone and the delight of Dumb Bell. UPDATE: Shoulder soreness. Cool, as in not cool, and great, as in not great. I will not draft him now as in not drafting him. 2022 Projections: 8-9/3.67/1.25/154 in 148 IP

38. Pablo Lopez – With much regret, I need to be out on Pab-Lo this year. As anyone knows who’s followed me for a long time and had to duck away from the cops when I called 9-1-1 on them for stalking, I’ve been liking Pab-Lo, but I can’t get me head around his shoulder issue from last year that had him missing time from July 17th thru the last week of the season. He did get on the mound before we tucked in for the long winter, but it was for 1 2/3 IP and the Marlins said this offseason that he was the “most available” via a trade. Oh…*walks around the globe until my FitBit quits on me*…kay. Pab-Lo could be fantastic, but not worth the ulcer. Random Prediction Alert! Bet Pab-Lo looks great for, like, April, May and June, and we’re like, “Damn, Grey, I’m gonna start calling you LL Cool Grey, but not for ‘Ladies Love’ but for all the L’s you take,” then Pab-Lo will collapse after the break and no one will remember I warned them. 2022 Projections: 9-10/3.21/1.09/138 in 127 IP

39. Blake Snell – Absolutely was ace-like and much better in the 2nd half of last year, but here’s a serious question: Wasn’t he great in the same timeframe in 2020? (He was; it’s a serious question that’s also rhetorical.) Not saying Snell is simply a 2nd half pitcher, but maybe he’s simply a pitcher who can only figure his shizz out for a few months at a time? (Not rhetorical, but more of an emoji with a hand on its chin.) It could’ve been mechanics that he figured out. You can pinpoint his 4-seamer being commanded better in the 2nd half, and a .321 xBA on his fastball in May became .000 in September and .123 in August. 10 total hits across two months on his fastball. But if his mechanics were fixed, can’t they get unfixed again this year? (More of an emoji there that’s scribbling an answer to an equation on a blackboard outside of a math class at MIT.) There’s a chance Snell is a 240-strikeout, 2.30 ERA beast that would look good in Robbie Ray’s pants, but there’s also a chance Snell’s unusable for at least part of the year, and he’s just not the kind of IBS igniter I’m looking to draft. 2022 Projections: 9-11/3.91/1.27/194 in 151 IP

40. Carlos Rodon – One quick word on him. I’m out on him no matter where he signs. He can go to Miami and have the Marlins’ pixie dust sprinkled on him and I’d still be out. He has some major health concerns that I wouldn’t touch. More on him when he’s signed by a team who will sound like a girl who dated you previously saying, “I can change him.” UPDATE: Signed with the Giants. Still don’t like Rodon. I’m sorry. Daddy sang bass, mommy sang tenor, and Grey sang, “Don’t draft injured pitchers.” If you like him, then congrats, you might lose some, but you just won one, because Rodon ended up in the best possible landing spot for him. Does San Fran fix him? Not sure why that would be. Googling “Rodon + Shoulder” and Google says, “Please narrow down your search.” So, go use Bing or don’t draft Rodon, your choice. 2022 Projections: 8-4/3.67/1.17/154 in 115 IP

CONTINUE ON TO THE TOP 60 STARTERS FOR 2022 FANTASY BASEBALL

102 Comments
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doug b
doug b
7 months ago

Eovaldi isn’t exactly durable. He’s a 2x TJS survivor.

What's a Drexl?
What's a Drexl?
Reply to  doug b
7 months ago

that’s why he’s durable now. and has been since the last TJ.

dubjay
dubjay
7 months ago

Hey Grey. Loving the rankings so far. I was looking for some help for what 10 players to keep in my 12 team H2H keeper league. This championship winning squad is pretty deep so its going to be tough. I wont bother with whole team. Ill cut the fat down to 16
Acuna
Soto
Albies
Tucker
Trout
Semien
Arenado
J.Rodriguez
A.Riley
A.Bregman
S.Bieber
L.Castillo
F.Montas
C.Rodon
S.Manaea
B.Snell
Im having a tough time with this. Primarily with J.Rodriguez. I think hes pretty blue chip. I know that if I let him go, he will be snapped up quickly. Worried about him exploding on somebody else’s roster. I already have Soto, Acuna, Tucker and Trout in the OF. So beyond loaded there. Although we do have two UTIL positions and Rodriguez can be stashed in my N/A slot assuming that he doesnt make the opening day roster.
What do you think?

Sean
Sean
7 months ago

Baseball HQ uses Swinging Strike rate to validate the K%. Framber comes in at 10.7%, AL average was 11.8%. His K% last year was 22%, which is below the average of 23— So he’s roughly 4% below average in K% but about 10% below average in SwK rate. Interestingly enough in the ‘blurb’ in the Forecaster: “Ks fell more in line with SwK” in looking back at last year. The prior year his SwK was 10.5% (over 10% below league average) while his K% was 26%. They project a 24% K-rate this year.

Sean
Sean
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

I just pulled out the 2021 book, here were his numbers and projections for that year (SwK & K%):

2019 (including Minor League Equivalencies): 10.8%, 25%
2020: 10.5% & 26%

Those led to a 2021 Projection of: 10.2% and 26%. With a “Were buying” in the blurb.

The 2021 Actuals were: 10.7% (a good bit higher) and 22% (a good bit lower).

So you’re spot on: They saw this trend: 25%, 26%, 22% in K% corresponding with 10.8%, 10.5%, 10.7% and they “split the difference” in K% with 24% while bumping the SwK% down to 10.5%.

Their conclusion seems similar to yours: ” A solid mid-rotation arm, but with middling K-BB% baseline, he’s not likely to take that next step”.

On a quick side note… 5’11, 239 lbs?! Didn’t know he was built like that.

Random Collmenter
Random Collmenter
7 months ago

Doing my first Draft Champions league and this is really a challenge! Would love your thoughts on my team so far and what approach I should take to my last 18 picks. I was the last person to draft a SP as well as an RP, so I want to keep throwing darts there. Any other deep sleeper recs would be appreciated. Thanks Grey!

C: Zunino
C: Torrens
1B: Freeman
2B: Lux
SS: Bichette
3B: Riley
CI: Toro
MI: Wander
U: Andres Gimenez
OFs: Arozorena, Winker, Lourdes, Carlson, Brujan
SPs: Castillo, Trevor Rogers, Manaea, Ian Anderson, Joe Ryan, Sixto, Kaprelian, Bubic, Jose Suarez
RPs: Soto, Floro, Fulmer, Bender

Bench Bats:
Casas
Wisdom
Clint Frazier
Willie Calhoun
de la Cruz

Random Collmenter
Random Collmenter
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

Thanks man!!! Appreciate it.

Jason Murray
Jason Murray
7 months ago

Time to pick keepers and I’m questioning a few of my picks, including Framber and Eovaldi mentioned above. My current keepers are:

Jose Abreu
Semien
Devers
Eloy
Tatis
Austin Riley
Bieber
Luis Castillo
Julio Urias
Edwin Diaz

Would you swap any of those for:

Bryan Reynolds
J.D. Martinez
Franmil
Gallen
Framber
Eovaldi

Thanks!

Jason Murray
Jason Murray
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

It’s a 10-team. We keep 10 players and 10 minors. I don’t have a 3rd round or 5th round pick, I didn’t want to miss out on a closer. Franmil is DH-only, but we do have a DH spot in our lineups. I agree with the thought…I usually don’t keep closers.

Jack Straw
Jack Straw
7 months ago

Love the write-up, fantastic work as always.

10 team standard 5×5 AL-Only roto keeper league, with annual price inflation of $5.

S. Torkelson ($8) or L. Lynn ($18).

For context, I will be keeping A. Manoah ($8), and like the idea of pairing him and Lynn as the foundation at the top of my staff for $26, especially in AL only. I love Tork at that price for this year and building for future, but also in a competitive window right now.

Thoughts ?

Jack Straw
Jack Straw
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

Thanks! It would require me to trade Torkelson ($8) to acquire Lynn ($18) rather than choosing between them, so I’d only really be able to have one.

Jack Straw
Jack Straw
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

Do you feel the same way about Baddoo ($8) and Lynn ($18)?

toolshed
toolshed
7 months ago

You mentioned some concerning trends about buehler. You have him ranked highly and your projections are good for him. I see steamer has him projected for a 4.11 era! What? How do they come up with that? Am I missing something?He has a career era of 2.90 over 573+ ip. I see he had two clunker starts in Sept where he gave up 11 er in 6 2/3 ip @sfg and @col but his 2nd half era was still really good. I thought the steamer projection would mean buying opportunity and he’d fall in drafts, but his adp was 13 the last time I checked.

toolshed
toolshed
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

I will not be drafting him at his current price or where he will go in most of my leagues (between picks 20-30). I just saw the era projection stick out. My ace will be much farther down that top 20 list.

whitt23
whitt23
7 months ago

Quick trade question:
His Kevin Gauman @ $17

For my Chris Bassitt @ $13 and a free Reid Detmers

I wouln’t be keeping Detmers as my free minor league spots are taken by players I prefer over Detmers.

Any insight is appreciated. Thanks.

whitt23
whitt23
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

Thanks. He should work nicely with Burnes $8, Montomery $1, Webb $3, and Cease $8. Probbaly going to try and trade for a hitter at this point.

406mtechdigger
406mtechdigger
7 months ago

Thanks Grey! Getting close to the sweet spot here!

Building out my Keeper/Draft strategy and am curios about your thoughts….. $1000 H2H Pts League with FAAB from leftover $’s. Prices go up $20 per year until $100 then $25 per.

Here are my likely keepers:
20-CAdley Rutschman
20-1BAustin Riley
100-2BOzzie Albies
125-SSTrea Turner
150-3BJose Ramirez
60-OFLuis Robert
40-OFJD Martinez
40-UTILMarcus Semian

40-OFJulio Rodriquez
20-1BSpencer Torkelson

60SPLance Lynn
60SPMax Fried
20SPTyler Mahle
20SPMike Clevinger
20SPLogan Gilbert

Those keepers leave me with ~$250 to fill out with lotto tickets and depth.

I am a big fan of both Gilbert and Adley but C’s go for real cheap in my league and I think I am probably overvaluing Gilbert compared to league mates. Maybe Julio should be in this conversation as well??? Additionally, if I had those extra $40 I think I could have a shot at getting Acuna, Betts or Trout. (Another wrinkle is that any player purchased for the 1st time at $100+ automatically starts back at $125 the next year, so I would be getting a great deal next year). So long story long, I am leaning toward throwing back the potential upside of Gilbert and Adley to lock in another top 10 guy for the next 3 years. Thoughts on this? Or on the other keepers? Appreciate all you do!

406mtechdigger
406mtechdigger
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

We can keep as many as we want within budget. I am keeping everyone listed. We can only carry 7 starters and I like to churn at least 1 if not 2 of those SP’s. I can always find a draft bargain in those SP’s as well which is why I am leaning towards only keeping 4 of them and using the $ elsewhere.

406mtechdigger
406mtechdigger
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

Thanks Grey!

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
7 months ago

Would you make an offer for Trout in a dynasty?

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

Is he healthy? Has there been any updates on him?

Will
Will
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

He is apparently 100% and going to be ready for the start of spring training. But it’s the Angels so that might mean Achilles surgery the week before spring training starts. I kept him as part of my 8 keepers and am hoping for the best.

hot corner
hot corner
7 months ago

Not sure who you blackmailed or paid off, but your articles went from never showing up in Google fantasy baseball searches to being all over the place. Great job.

hot corner
hot corner
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

Yeah. If I go to Google and search “fantasy baseball,” then this is the first article that comes up under “Top Stories.” I have never seen that until recently.

hot corner
hot corner
Reply to  hot corner
7 months ago

Screenshot

Screenshot_20220203-115359_Chrome.jpg
Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

Look at you top of the charts! Well deserved!!

RoarOf84
RoarOf84
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

Haha – I always have a “fantasy baseball” tab open with that as the search term. I refresh it daily for news, articles, etc.

I’ve found the same thing that Hot Corner mentioned. The last few days, every time I search, Razzball is one of the first results, if not the actual first.

Great for y’all but bad for all of your OG readers who could lose their competitive advantage.

Dom Cobb
Dom Cobb
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

Yes Grey – as of 2022, you’ve beat the Google algorithms!!!

NJW
NJW
7 months ago

Ahh…This is always the best article of the year. Here’s half of my pitching staff!

End the lockout
End the lockout
7 months ago

What I like about Monoah is he can go deep in games and the Jays allow him to do so. In a QS league, I look for SP that can produce a QS in about 10% of their IP. Monoah had 11 QS in 111 IP as a rookie.

RoarOf84
RoarOf84
7 months ago

Got a potential trade on the horizon that I need some advice on.

League context:

10 teams with each team keeping 12 players. Scoring is h2h categories (6×6 with OPS and holds).

My current keepers are:

Acuna
Soto
Ohtani (U and SP eligible)
JRam
Wander
Bellinger
Ketel

Buehler
Alcantara
Flaherty
Manoah
Hader

Would you move Sandy straight up for Olson? I love both of them and am worried about my 1B/CI spots.

RoarOf84
RoarOf84
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

Bold text for bold moves!

Sport
Sport
7 months ago

Yeah, Yahoo opened up about a week ago. After all the mock drafts, they posted the ADP’s a couple days ago. I’m not sure who comes up with the rankings, but all the mock drafters have created ADP’s that are better than the rankings! Jose Ramirez-14, LouRob-29, Kyle Tucker-31, Starling Marte-10 are just a handful of rankings. I’m sure there are more that are pretty bad. The ADP’s aren’t great, but more accurate than the rankings. It’s weird.

Sport
Sport
Reply to  Sport
7 months ago

These yahoo rankings can’t be right. I’m moving players into my own pre-draft rankings and they surely have it still set on last year’s season ending rankings.

But the interesting thing is, Wander Franco has 3B eligibility in Yahoo! That’s a bonus in my opinion!

Badfantasymanager
Badfantasymanager
Reply to  Sport
7 months ago

Yeah, I saw that and came to the same conclusion that they haven’t updated the rankings. And hopefully they’ll never do to be honest!

Sport
Sport
Reply to  Badfantasymanager
7 months ago

It’s really weird. Aaron Nola ranked 158, but Bobby Witt Jr. ranked around 90, and Mullins like 100. It doesn’t make any sense.

Badfantasymanager
Badfantasymanager
7 months ago

I’m in a 14 team redraft where EVERYONE loves to take pitching early. I have the pick 8, which means I’ll have pick 36 and 49 for rounds 3 and 4 respectively.

Looking at the top 40, most probably I won’t get to choose anyone from your top 20 if I get to pick 49, so what strategy would you recommend in that situation?

Last year I picked my 1st pitcher at pick 54, in a draft where the others drafted around 25 pitchers before me so I don’t know if the risk is too high or not to pick a SP so late (luckily they left me Lynn at that position but don’t think my luck could be so good this year).

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
7 months ago

Love me some Manoah. Also love me some Bassitt, the fact that he came back and threw some innings at end of last year makes me trust him more than I would have.

Sport
Sport
7 months ago

Your starter rankings are my favorites! Reading them all now for the second time and geting more nuggets each time. I really want SP1-Peralta/Nola and SP2-Cease/Baz and let the rest go as it does. Yahoo is always fun to stream in.

If Razzball had t-shirts, one of them would need to look like a tuxedo with the tier name, or ‘tier 8’ or whatever tier it is!

Thank you for all this sweet SP nectar! You are the greatest Grey the White!

Dr Hocker
Dr Hocker
Reply to  Sport
7 months ago

Many of us realize that Grey and Eno are probably the two pre-eminent pitcher whisperers in the industry. How much would you give to see a mic’d up Grey go out for a mound visit in a MLB game and say something like: “that last pitch was tantamount to a Cleveland steamer….now get this shizz straightened out immediately or else on my next visit I’ll have your release papers with me.”

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
7 months ago

Hey Grey! What 5 guys are you keeping in a keep forever daily lineup 12 team H2H (6×6 – OBP and OPS (no avg) and QS as well as W).

Soto $14 (obviously yes)
Yordan $11 (same)
Story $17
Riley $5
Walsh $5
Trea (mookie was drafted for 61 last year) $44
S Marte $23
Altuve $16
Sandy A $10
Manoah $5

Thanks!

Bill
Bill
7 months ago

Thanks for all of this great insight, Grey! I’m in a 10 team league w/ 10 P slots. I’m likely keeping Peralta, Ohtani (P-only, he’s cheap and I don’t have better options), and Logan Gilbert (plus some VERY strong offensive keepers). What’s the tier in these rankings that you would recommend I aim for to target as my top pitching selection in the auction? I want to ensure my pitching is strong, but don’t want to overreach if I don’t need to.

Michael McMorrow
Michael McMorrow
7 months ago

My ad-free membership has turned into nothing but ads all over the page. I can’t even read the articles.

galica1234
galica1234
7 months ago

Grey!!!

Awesome!!!!!

a. Love the tuxedo shirt tier. Appreciate this entire report for both positive and negative.

b. Great job getting out of the Framber blurb. I had my doubts but that last sentence got the job done!

c. On a football note, Punxsutawney Phil was so angry that Brady’s retirement on Monday overshadowed his decision on Groundhog’s Day he’s staying underground for an additional six MONTHS!

d. Norm MacDonald quote of the day for February 3, 2022

‘New medical research shows that men and women have different food cravings – men preferring meat, women preferring sweets. Scientists traced this back to caveman days when men had to go hunt for food while women stayed home and sat on their fat asses eating chocolates.’

e. Marx Brothers quote of the day for February 3, 2022

‘Marriage is a wonderful institution, but who wants to live in an institution?’

Cheers,
Ante

jimmothy66
jimmothy66
Reply to  galica1234
7 months ago

Gray, awesome stuff! My key takeaway is Alek M’s mom IS a cougar.
In a 10 team auction keeper league, $260 budget, keeper max is 12. 6×6 with OBP and QS added.
My hitting is sick, thanks to Razzball and the fact I play with my mostly illiterate friends. Keepers so far are:

Soto $18
Bichette $13
Acuna $23
Devers $27
LuRob $13
Wander $6
Alonso $22
Haniger $6
Mullins $1

Total $129

Potential keepers are:

Sonny G $13
Flaherty $18
Eflin $19
Musgrove $28

Any of those 4 worth keeping at those prices? None excite me, and the value I have from my hitting has me leaning towards saving my money and value hunt SP’s during the auction. Am I on the right track?

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

Grey!!

a. The institution one, no. We did the one getting married in front of a judge instead of a jury if you’re confusing marriage quotes. Also feeding hay to a dead horse etc. Groucho would be in deep trouble with some of these quotes today.

b. Loved the NM joke. Not all women would like it of course, sorry. Why do women crave sweets and men crave meat. Tough call, could be something instinctual, could also go back to caveman times. Why not?

c. Sorry for the cold in LA. It’s cooler here too (around 50s by day, 30s by night). Jack Frost is enjoying himself and Simba and I snuggle (he on the bed cover and me under the duvet AND the bed cover and he still generates a lot of heat through both, thankful for dogs) at night.

d. My wife went off today to that island paradise with no internet with her friend from college. Her friend to get away from her crazy family, my wife to support but also to get away from the monotony and recharge the battery. Upon arrival the water tap in the kitchen sprays water everywhere when you turn on the faucet, called a plumber earliest he can come is in 2 days. Then the AC which also doubles as a heating unit is failing. My island paradise.

Cheers,
Ante

Nick
Nick
7 months ago

Grey, that’s THE post i was waiting for !!

Keeper’s league discussion : 8 keepers
and the last 2 relate to THIS post

1 Trea Turner 2B/SS : TOP4 no brainer
2 Ronald Acuna OF : TOP10 Acuna Unchained #tagteam HR-SB combo
3 Pete Alonso 1B #4 : power me up ALL-Bombso
4 Austin Riley 3B #5 : expensive 22price but go BIG or GO HOME

5 Bdon Woodruff SP#5 : projected 222Ks
6 LuKa Giolito SP#10 : projected 222Ks

as for the last 2 i was thinking to keep SPs to secure my team core :

7 Logan Webb SP#22 for 2022? what can go wrong …
8 Max Fried SP#24

on the keepers bubble:
9 Chris Bassitt SP#33 safety first (over Webb?)
10 Jose Abreu 1B#6 (ranked over Riley?)
11 Jared Walsh OF#24/1B#8
12 Lourdes Gurriel OF#26 back in the mix
13 Jazz Chisholm 2B#8/SS#14
14 Bryan Reynolds OF#40 where you need avg when you have Pete .260!
15 George Spring OF#29 no more Summer crush
16 Dansby Swansong SS#15

who would be your last 2 keepers? hitters or pitchers

i finished 3rd last year – lost in semifinal
i’ll pick 8th and 13th, so i can get at least one of those :
who would you focus on and reach for a bit?

Thanks
Nick

bigbear
bigbear
Reply to  Nick
7 months ago

Hitters definitely. Springer and Abreu/Walsh. I know Grey has Abreu higher, but I think I’m leaning toward Walsh’s upside this year. Kind of a coin flip though. Abreu has a safer floor.

You’ll be putting 3 SPs back. With the 8th pick, there’s a good chance an SP will be there IF you need one (i.e. everyone else would have kept good SPs).

Nick
Nick
Reply to  bigbear
7 months ago

Walsh has OF eligibility and younger, and Avg better than Abreu
what about Lourdes over George?

Jason
Jason
7 months ago

Hey Grey!
Great rankings as always!

Pick 2 keepers 12 team 5×5 H2H:
I’ll have last pick since I won last year thanks to you!

Trevor Rogers 6th Rd
Pablo Lopez 12th Rd
Mark Melancon 15th Rd

Thanks!

Roll Tribe
Roll Tribe
7 months ago

Shame about Pab-lo, cuz I was all in last year on the Marlins staff… This year it’s Giants or bust?

Speaking of Marlins, what’s your take on Sixto?

toolshed
toolshed
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

It’s going to be a while before you get there.

Rob
Rob
Reply to  Grey
7 months ago

Hot Take: Edward Cabrera will be a better player than Sixto.