There’s two types of people who play fantasy baseball: The winners and the losers–Nah, I’m kidding. There’s two types, but not winners and losers. Well, actually, there are those two types, but there’s two other types I’m talking about. The two types are dummies and those who listen to me! Sorry, another goof. It’s just that setup of “there’s two types” is just so juicy, like my ass in these sweatpants. There might be 5,000 types who play fantasy baseball, I don’t effin’ know, but two of those types are ones who know what they’re doing, and are open to suggestions and those not open to suggestions. The latter group is pretty large. They’re the group that thinks they’re smarter than everyone else. Fantasy sports attracts a lot of them. Nature of the beast, really. I predict the ones not open to suggestions are going to look at Shane McClanahan‘s exit velocity, and HardHit% and state they are out on him. That will be backed in their mind by his very awful 4.57 xERA. I also predict there will be a lot of contrarian ‘perts out there who are out on McClanahan for this same reason. Like there’s something under the hood on McClanahan that they’re wary of. Under the hood, how’sever, is a freakin’ Corvette engine and I’m wearing skinny jeans and a B.U.M. Equipment sweatshirt! Now let’s get in this puppy and go vroom vroom! By the way, if anyone out there is building a Zamboni-type vacuum that is ride-along, you can call it a Vroom Broom. I give you permission. I had dreams of building one, but I’m not sure I’m going to get to it.

In the other group of people who play fantasy baseball, there’s gonna be a lot of people who love Shane McClanahan. As mentioned before, sometimes it’s less about whether a fantasy baseball sleeper is essentially unknown or not for a post and more about how much I like a guy and how he’s still going at a discount, even if that discount may not be from like, “At pick 547, I took Johnny Cueto, and maybe he can bounce back.” Shane McClanahan is just dead sexy and I want to talk about that vroom vroom. So, what can we expect from Shane McClanahan for 2022 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Psyche! Before we get into the Shane McClanahan sleeper post, just wanted to announce that I’ve finished my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings and they’re all available on our Patreon. Anyway II, the Shane McClanahan sleeper:

Last year in 123 1/3 IP, Shane McClanahan went 10-6/3.43/1.27/141 with a 10.3 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. That was working off a 97 MPH four-seamer, 89 MPH slider, 83 MPH curve, and very occasional change. So, strikeout pitcher with three dynamos and one backdoory sucker that’s young and ready to get some. But wait there’s more! McClanahan had a 45.5% ground ball rate, that was 33rd in the league, when sorting by 120+ IP, and the 20th lowest fly ball rate at 29.5%. In his home park, he can prolly get away with less butter, but you butter, you butter, you butt without all those ground balls? Yes, but he’s still sitting down guys with ease. Wouldn’t even bother with a random 120-ish IP from a rookie if it didn’t track from his minor league play, but, of course, it does.

So, about the HardHit% that has the “too cool for school” fantasy baseballers out. It’s not ideal. It’s also not the end-all. With slightly more HardHit% given up is Blake Snell, Gausman, Scherzer, Robbie Ray, Stroman and the list goes on. You throw hard and people hit it hard. There’s guys like Matt Harvey, Andrew Heaney and other garbage purveyors in the HardHit% list, so it’s a thing, but it’s not everything. McClanahan’s fastball gets hit (.316 xBA), but as long as he doesn’t become predictable, he can throw his slider or curve (.221 and .212 respectively) and put away anyone. Plus, if he’s getting hit hard on the fastball but it’s on the ground? Meh, who cares. Single him up, as divorce attorneys say.

My biggest concern is his fastball velocity tailed off as the season went on. Could it be due to fatigue (pronounced fay-tee-gay, it’s Italian)? Yes, plus it’s encouraging that his velocity returned in September and October. Oddly enough, when his velocity was at its lowest, his results were still great in July and August. Maybe not oddly enough since he’s still hitting 96.5 MPH on his four-seamer. Honestly, I’m not sure how much “being in the weeds to figure out Shane” matters in the end, because he had a 14.8% SwStr% and that was 9th best in the majors. That stat is hard to fake. Gerrit Cole had a 14.5% right behind him, and Shane had eight aces sit in front of him. Corbin Burnes was best, Kershaw, Scherzer, Robbie Ray, Gausman, etc. etc. etc. If Shane McClanahan’s getting that many guys to swing and miss? He’s a top starter. For 2022, I’ll give Shane McClanahan projections of 14-8/3.43/1.17/189 in 163 IP with a chance for more.

Subscribe
Notify of
guest
29 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
5 days ago

Grey!!!!

Awesome!!!

a. Of course, love McClanahan. His name can be shortened to McCl when searching in fantrax to find him. Question.

In THAT startup dynasty [cats=WHIP, K/9, QS, SVH], he was drafted in round 8, pick #91 by the Rays fan in our 12-team league.

Questions

Do you like him there in that setup?

What’s your MAX and MIN pick # for him?

In that same draft I took Cease in round 8 (pick #88).

Whom do you like more in this dynasty? Of course, both super sexy but I give the nod to Cease for better k/9 and better chance for 20 QS for 2022 and beyond.

b. Norm MacDonald quote of the day for January 13, 2022

‘In an effort to make himself look smarter than he really is, this week Dan Quayle spoke to 4000 Amway employees.’

c. Marx Brothers quote of the day for January 13, 2022

‘If you’ve heard this story before, don’t stop me, because I’d like to hear it again.’

Cheers,
Ante

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
Reply to  Grey
5 days ago

Grey!

The Dan Quayle joke took me two readings to understand it!! How dumb am I? I need to do like 2 years’ worth of sudoku puzzles in 2 weeks to bring my brain up to scratch.

Is there anything worse than squid games to watch that I could suggest to our daughter to watch? Seriously saw Ridley Scott’s comments on why millennials pooh poohed his movie ‘The Last Duel’. Ok a bit pompous but it was a time piece and maybe a bit long. You can watch the first 3 chapters, then come back and watch the duel to finish up.

On new series/movies, loving Emily in Paris 2. More sophisticated. Loving this Swedish series Lyckoviken (Lucky Bay). Looking forward to watching the three-part, 8-hour Beatles doc (The Beatles:Get Back).

Cheers,
Ante

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
Reply to  Grey
5 days ago

Grey!

Thanks for the tips, man.

We endured The Last Duel. It’s Affleck, Damon what else do you need but it’s not gonna win any Oscars, maybe for costume design. We watched The Lost Symbol. It was good, except for the very end. My wife read the book it was ok to watch.

Cheers,
Ante

NJW
NJW
5 days ago

Hi Grey,

I was hoping to see a McLanahan post from you. I’m in on him from a talent standpoint too.

My league unfortunately still has QS as a category – would this make you shy away from him and Shane Baz or push them considerably down your board?

benjaminred
benjaminred
5 days ago

Terrific write up as usual. Makes my morning.

benjaminred
benjaminred
5 days ago

Keeper question if you don’t mind. Keep 5 in 14 Team 5×5:

K Tucker (duh)
L Robert (duh)
Y Alvarez (duh)

Final 2?
Lindor
Buxton
J Rodriguez
Wheeler

My team broke down early last year so I was able to trade for other teams’ injured players. Now tough choices.

4 OF and 1 Util, so I technically could find playing time if I went 5 OF keepers.

Thanks!

Last edited 5 days ago by benjaminred
Sport
Sport
5 days ago

Another sweet write up! 3.43/1.17/189 in 163 would be awesome to have. I’m assuming since he’s talked about in a sleeper perspective that you may end up drafting him in the 55-60 range?

Left field wall in Baltimore getting some changes done. Does this move Means up for you? As Itch said, the AL East is still a beast to face so often, but that change in LF should help correct? I just get hung up on not getting 9K/9 on him.

Sport
Sport
Reply to  Grey
5 days ago

I was meaning John Means as a SP.

But speaking of Mullins, you don’t like him at the going price for him?

Thank you!

Ace of Spades
Ace of Spades
5 days ago

Grey or Rudy

Love the new version of the site so far.

Usually I would be pestering January Grey with ” who do I keep ” questions at this time of the year. Instead, I have a technical question which may or may not be something you can help me with.

I am a Patreon member who has already studied your rankings and write ups for this year. In one keeper league I have already made trades based on the info. So much thanks for releasing things this way.

My problem is, that since the site updated, when I try to sign into one of the patreon ranking posts using the password for that post, it doesn’t seem to work, leaving only a blank page once it is done loading . It also seems that it takes longer to load.
This problem only started happening once the updated site started. I am not sure if that was coincidence or not. I am as technically savvy as the Mets training staff is at keeping players healthy, so, if there is a way you can assist with any sort of advice to correct this issue , it would be greatly appreciated.

As always , thanks in advance

bigbear
bigbear
5 days ago

I’m in the ‘trust-but-verify’ type of fantasy baseballer.

Shane Mc was on/off/on my team last year. I’m not concerned about his high EV. I am a little concerned about his high HardHit% but “learning to pitch” can lower that. His FB pounds the zone but has top shelf movement. Your projections are a good baseline IMO.

Unless TB signs another SP, he looks like their #1 even if he’s still under some type of innings limit. I wouldn’t be shocked if they go with a 6-man rotation. But the IP you have above is reasonable no matter how it’s sliced. The fact that TB trusted him so much in 2020 to pitch him in the playoffs speaks highly. I bet he gets his IP and K’s!

Like his backdoory sucker changeup, I’m a tramp for high GB rates and high K rates! He’s in my queue too!

Luigi
Luigi
5 days ago

Grey,

when will your top 100 rankings be made available on Patreon?

Luigi
Luigi
Reply to  Grey
5 days ago

cool. thank you and looking forward to them.

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
2 days ago

So, no sleeper post on Vidal Brujan?

I’m just wondering how far he has fallen. It’s a lot like he doesn’t even exist anymore. Hard to understand when he’s only had 26 at-bats. Is Vidal a bust already?

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
Reply to  Grey
2 days ago

Well damn! I am getting old!