The 2017 fantasy baseball rankings are under that link. Why are you lifting your computer? Not literally under that link! Okay, you’re thick like a CVS receipt folded in half twelve times. In years past, the top 40 starters is a mix of guys I like and don’t like. Like a high cholesterol cow, it’s about half and half. This year, I really had to struggle to find guys that I didn’t want to draft in the top 40 starters. In the end, there were five starters in this top 40 starter post I was less okay, and more amscray. Each fantasy team needs about six starters total, so tell me again why you need to draft starters early? There’s a ton of them, like, this is simple math. So, simple, there’s no actual number and just ‘a ton.’ As with past rankings, my tiers and projections are included for the low, low price of $19.99! Kidding, they’re free. The oxygen you need to live while reading them is gonna cost you though. Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2017 fantasy baseball:
21. Jose Quintana – This is a new tier, but to see earlier tiers go to the top 20 starters for 2017 fantasy baseball. This tier goes from Quintana until Lackey. I call this tier, “There’s safety in numbers, especially number twos.” If you went goofy high upside with your first starter, as my rankings may lead one to do, then this tier will help balance that. As for Quintana, I almost made him his own separate tier, because he really doesn’t fit in any of these top 40 tiers. The closest other tier that he makes sense for is “Slowly remove the hand from under your bun and click yo’ mouse” from the top 20 starters, but that felt too high to rank him. He’s still only a 8 K/9 guy with a 2 BB/9. That’s solid, don’t get me wrong, but it’s not a ‘1st starter on a fantasy team’ elite. You can’t go to sleep dreaming of a 200 K season and wake with one. As those in the year 199 might’ve said, “Why 200 K?” Because everything else comes from Ks. If a pitcher is striking guys out at that rate, it’s hard for them to go that wrong. At a later date, I’ll go over exactly how to draft an entire fantasy staff, and there’s a possibility to go with a guy like Quintana for ratios then a guy, like, say, Robbie Ray for Ks. Any hoo! Quintana is safe, totally respectable. Exciting? Not especially, but some people think it’s exciting enough to just win their fantasy leagues with boring guys. 2017 Projections: 14-9/3.35/1.20/181 in 204 IP
22. Kyle Hendricks – I was listening to a podcast the other day and they were talking with the founder of Honest Tea, and he was saying about how he quit his job, got $50,000 from his dad and started making tea. He had no passion for tea, didn’t have a clue about the beverage industry, but he did have a friend from Yale that was a buyer for Whole Foods. Honest Tea becomes Whole Foods’ top selling beverage and the rest is history. At the end of the podcast he was asked, did luck have anything to do with his success? He said definitely no. Yeah, and Hendricks doesn’t need luck to be a 2.13 ERA pitcher again. 2017 Projections: 14-9/3.41/1.14/175 in 198 IP
23. Masahiro Tanaka – I hate Tanaka! Hate, hate, hate! I have a “Love Trumps Hate” poster and I’ve crossed out the first two words and written over them, “Hate, Hate,” then squeezed in Masahiro at the bottom. That’s how much I hate Tanaka! Or how much I used to hate him. Do I love him now? No, not really, but I’m still drafting him if I went crazy upside with my first starter, so no more active hate for Tanaka, unless he disappoints, then all bets are off. Which is also what Mookie’s family says when they get off an airplane. 2017 Projections: 13-10/3.47/1.13/172 in 201 IP
24. Cole Hamels – He’s like the Jack Morris of this era. Prolly better, actually, but I’m too lazy to open Morris’ stat page. Year in, year out, Hamels gets 200 IP and keeps his teams in the game. In 2214 1/3 IP, he has a 3.31 ERA and last year he had a 3.32 ERA. The extra walk on his BB/9 last year is concerning, but that isolated isn’t terrible. The bigger issue is he dominated for ten years with a nasty change. For many years, he had the best change in the game. Last year, it wasn’t even his best pitch and just barely a positive. To use Tim Gunn speak, he made it work, but to use a pitch that’s not effective more and abandon a pitch that was his bread and butter worries me. Enough to avoid? No, not quite that worrisome. 2017 Projections: 15-10/3.56/1.22/197 in 202 IP
25. Rich Hill – Here’s what I said this offseason, “(Hill) re-signed with the Dodgers. *Dodgers seeing other free agent starters still available Ivan Nova, Derek Holland, Jason Hammel, Jorge de la Rosa, Doug Fister* “Rich Hill, are you sure all you want is $48 million? We can throw in pickup games for your kids with Magic. Want Scully to announce your daughter’s bat mitzvah? You’re not Jewish? Want Scully to convert you? He can bris the junk out of you! Literally! What else can we do for you?” Without looking at Google, can I bet someone that Hill is not represented by Scott Boras? Boras would’ve been like, “Wait, so you’re saying the best starter free agent after Hill is Jeremy Hellickson? Okay, Rich, we’re not accepting anything beneath $200 million over ten years.” Speaking of Hellickson, he accepted a $17.2 million one-year, qualifying offer and Hill’s deal averages $16 million over three years. Any ideas of who represented Hellickson? You guessed it! Boras. So, Hill re-signs with the Dodgers, and, unless he gets injured immediately and stays injured for three years (which isn’t out of the realm of possibilities with Hill), you have to love the deal for the Dodgers and fantasy.” And that’s me quoting me! 2017 Projections: 14-5/2.74/1.03/144 in 125 IP
26. John Lackey – His slider pitch value in 2015 was -2.3; last year it was 25.1. It went from below average to the best slider in baseball. If that don’t make you harumph, you’re dead inside. Maybe at age 38 he learned something new; maybe Kyle Hendricks taught him something. I know what they say about old dogs, but Lackey has some Elway teeth so I’m not sure a dog is the right animal metaphor. Last year was his highest K/9, but at 38 years of age, his career numbers, are less inspiring. He does feel safe here and worth investing in as a number two if you took a slightly flimsier number one. 2017 Projections: 14-8/3.54/1.15/177 in 190 IP
27. Kevin Gausman – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Gray. I call this tier, “Crazy is super subjective.” Are these rankings crazy? I don’t know, over-the-internet friend, I briefly had McCullers in the top 20 starters and felt kinda okay with it. I might be crazy but A) It’s cause I’m crazy for these starters. B) Mental illness is nothing to make fun of. C) There’s no C. To answer at least fifteen of you, stats are not all that goes into rankings. Yes, guys in this tier have better projections than some (all?) of the guys in the previous tier, but there’s a lot of risk with this tier. With starters, I don’t mind a ton of risk, but there’s no denying that, say, McCullers is hella more risky than Lackey. As for Gausman, I’m goofy for young pitchers with nasty stuff that are entering their third full season who look like they’re coming into their own. Gausman almost fills that bill. He’s entering his fifth season, but the O’s yanked his chain, sending him to and fro the minors so many times, it’s kinda like his third full season. He has 453 IP in his major league career, that’s about right for a breakout. Last year, he had a 8.7 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. Better than F-Her, Greinke and Hamels. One slight worry, Gausman relies on a splitter and if hitters lay off it, then it’s fastball all day, and then they sit on that and burp. 2017 Projections: 13-10/3.51/1.25/193 in 195 IP
28. Lance McCullers – True story: I started writing a sleeper post for McCullers, and started looking at his stats and I was like, “Sleeper? Grey, my man, handsome AF compatriot, McCullers isn’t a sleeper, he’s, like, a top 20 starter, but, hmm, his health.” Maybe I got crackers in my head and they’re crumby. Maybe I’m just like my father, too bold. Maybe I should be committed or just in a committed relationship with an Astros fan, because I love McCullers so much it’s got me wacky in the noodle! The only big drawback, and I’ll admit it is a rather large elephant in his safari-themed bedroom. He was shut down last year with elbow soreness. There’s a slight chance here that he doesn’t make it out of spring training. Nothing else in his profile is saying less than a top 20 starter. His K/9 last year was 11.8. His xFIP was 3.06, which would’ve been third best in the majors behind Jo-Fer (RIP) and Syndergaard. He walks a bunch of guys, but he’s like Darvish or Scherzer. You cannot hit McCullers if he’s healthy. Yes, I mean business when I spell out can’t. Then, out of curiosity, I looked at Tristan Cockcroft’s top 250. He doesn’t have McCullers ranked! Wow. I, honestly, am speechless. You wanted a limb, here’s one. Why are you grabbing my arm?! I was speaking metaphorically. 2017 Projections: 12-6/3.26/1.19/205 in 170 IP
29. Aaron Nola – There’s another name for this tier, “These guys effed me so bad last year that I’ll draft one of them on the condition that I can drop them on their head in real life if they don’t make good this year.” Yeah, no doubt, Gwen Stefani. I hear ya, they killed us all. I’m right there with you. Though, more likely, if you owned Pineda, Taijuan and Nola last year, you probably aren’t reading this because you gave up on fantasy baseball because your general practitioner said it was bad for your heart. Sorry, we have to go back in on these guys, so it’s time for the defibrillator! It’s time for the defibrillator! It’s time for the defibrillator! Meh, that works better with percolator. If Nola would’ve had, say, Roark’s luck (or defense) last year, Nola would be a top 15 starter this year. His 3.08 xFIP shows how unlucky he was. Nola could be a 2.50 ERA guy with great defense. No foolsies. I won’t go that far, but I will be back in on him and I don’t even need to see Nola’s tourism board commercials. 2017 Projections: 10-11/3.46/1.21/161 in 155 IP
30. Taijuan Walker – Here’s what I said this offseason, “The Diamondbacks got a head start on Black Friday sales on Wednesday when they traded Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger and Zac Curtis to the Mariners for Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte. What’s that old axiom, if you don’t know who the sucker is at the table, you’re the sucker. Mariners, you’re the sucker. If anyone forgot that the Diamondbacks fired Dave Stewart immediately following the end of the season, this was a reminder. If Stewart were still there, the Diamondbacks would’ve traded Greinke for Todd Walker. As Dave Stewart would say after reading that, “I’m not mad at ya.” Don’t love the move to Chase Field for Taijuan, but the NL West makes that medicine go down a little easier, chim chiminy chim chiminy chim chim cher-ee! Walker had a 8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 last year in 134 1/3 IP. That goes up to 8.5 in the NL West and he’s pretending to yawn as he puts his arm around a low to mid-3 ERA. The only thing that’s stopping you from nodding your head like a plus-size Pez is that Walker hasn’t done it yet. He’s only 24 years old, not doing it yet isn’t a great excuse for never doing it.” And that’s me quoting me! 2017 Projections: 12-11/3.44/1.18/153 in 160 IP
31. Marcus Stroman – I need to get to the end of the rankings and write so many more pitcher sleeper posts, which is something I say every year then never get around to it. Alas, the road of good intentions is paved with Sabathia’s girdles. Okay, these girdles are everywhere! So, I looked at Stroman’s player page and I looked at his height and I was like, “Five-one!? I knew doode was short, but I didn’t know him and Altuve go on the Merry Go Round while all the other players go on the rollercoaster.” Then I realized I was looking at Stroman’s birthday, 5/1. Hey, Fantasy Master Lothario, how about you have one more cup of coffee? Stroman’s five-nine, according to him, at least. He’s tiny, which isn’t the end all, and now he’s heading into that glorious 3rd year. Last year, his 2nd half K-rate was 8.5 and his walk rate was 2.2. If David Price would’ve been that good, he’d be a top five starter again. Oh, and Stroman has the best ground ball rate in the majors. Nope, no typo. The best. Number one! The big mahoff! The head cheese! The last guy in line that gets tickets to see Rogue One and just happens to find a seat directly in the middle of the theater! The compass you stash in your lower colon in case you’re ever lost in the woods! Okay, maybe not the last one. Stroman’s 2nd half ERA was only 3.68 and that looks like the floor, which I’ve found out Stroman is not 61 inches away from. It’s a birthdate, you idiot! 2017 Projections: 12-8/3.55/1.24/184 in 204 IP
32. Michael Pineda – Already gave you my Michael Pineda sleeper. I wrote it ‘on one.’ 2017 Projections: 12-7/3.46/1.16/214 in 195 IP
33. Jon Gray – I ranked a Rockies starter in the top 40 starters! HA! Okay, I really am crazy. The bottom of the loony bin has been hit and it was hit by my medulla oblongta. By the way, oblongta is my favorite pasta shape. A Rockies starter? Really? Even I’m not sure. Maybe this limb I’m out on will collapse. Maybe it won’t. Maybe it will collapse into a bed of roses where Giancarlo is waiting in his birthday suit. We need answers here! So, a Rockies starter before King Felix, okay, I can talk through this. Gray had the 11th best swinging strike rate, and the 14th lowest contact rate. A low contact rate and a high swinging strike rate means what? It means people can’t hit him. The best of the best are in those two subsets. Gray is just above Carrasco in low contact and just above Carrasco and Verlander for swinging strikes. Most don’t throw strikes and miss bats often, Gray does. His slider is one of the best in the game and he throws it 27% of the time. 27% of the time the batter has no chance. I know, I know, so what, what about Coors? Yeah, it’s gonna be a tightrope, but he had a 4.30 ERA last year at home with a 10.1 K/9. That sounds like Chris Archer’s full season last year. I’m super scared about drafting a Rockies pitcher too, but I think we have to fall into Gray’s arms. Not mine! Get up! 2017 Projections: 12-10/3.77/1.23/208 in 191 IP
34. Aaron Sanchez – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until F-Her. I call this tier, “Get out of here before my mom comes down!” This tier is filled with guys that we talked sweet nothings to last year in our mom’s basement, but all good things must come to an end. Sanchez, for unstints, I owned him last year and enjoyed it about as much as an Astro Pop on a hot day. I expected to be dazzled by his numbers. Or at least have my country-western belt bedazzled. Then I looked at his stats and my ding dang no longer wants to dufrickie. Last year, he had a 7.6 K/9, 3 BB/9 and a 3.75 xFIP. His 3.00 ERA was buoyed by a .267 BABIP, and that K-rate doesn’t exactly tell me he’s going to be fine even if more hits get through, and he relies heavily on grounders (54.4% ground ball rate; 5th highest in majors). This Sanchez is dirty, but I need him to be filthy. 2017 Projections: 11-11/3.66/1.22/176 in 197 IP
35. David Price – Member how terrible Verlander looked for a few years while he tried to figure out how to pitch in his early 30’s when he started losing velocity? Okay, so maybe David Price is a quick learner, but he can’t do what he did last year and expect to get by. Don’t believe any pitcher that has ever been as good as him can go sideways? Look at the road paved with CC Sabathia’s girdles. He dropped them along the way. Lincecum’s using one right now to clean out his bong. Price may not be done, but I’m sure as heckfire not paying Price’s, uh, price for a hopeful bounce back from a guy that lost two miles on his fastball. As they say in France, arrividontwantcha. 2017 Projections: 13-10/3.74/1.21/173 in 180 IP
36. Tanner Roark – I spent the last twenty minutes trying to figure out how Roark was so successful last year. I spent two minutes seeing how he caused a lot of grounders and a lot of them were caught, more than he had any right getting caught. Then spent 18 minutes on eBay and now I have a Garry Templeton Sideburns Trimmer, advertising slogan, “They’ll kinda look like Florida.” Mr. Roark could succeed again if he’s lucky again, but I wouldn’t want to be stranded on that Fantasy Island with the chance of him getting Tattoo’d. 2017 Projections: 14-11/3.79/1.26/165 in 199 IP
37. Rick Porcello – Ya know, there was a time I liked you, Porcello. Prolly about five years’ worth of time scattered over your seven years of playing. Then you go and put it all together when I don’t own you anywhere. Some people would call that altogether ungrateful. (Is it obvious I just Googled how to use altogether vs. all together and am now making use of my newfound knowledge? *Note to self, newfound vs new found*) 2017 Projections: 14-11/3.81/1.23/177 in 210 IP
38. Zack Greinke – No foolin’, I can’t figure out what’s to like about Greinke. This feels like the year after Sabathia’s first poor year, and everyone was still going after him. I kinda wanted to drop Greinke about ten more spots in the rankings, but I looked around and can’t find anyone that’s ranked him this low, so it’s low enough to avoid him. As to Greinke and F-Her’s appearance in a tier of guys that were good last year, they were good in March of last year before they pitched one inning. Okay, I’m cheating. 2017 Projections: 12-9/3.71/1.17/167 in 190 IP
39. Felix Hernandez – I’m old enough to remember when F-Her was a great pitcher. Though, a two-year-old could be old enough to remember it. F-Her could get to 4,000 Ks in his career, said no one that has seen his career trajectory over the last two years. That luster he can no longer muster. That would also make a good eulogy for when you’re burying a cubic zirconia. Unlike Greinke, who I think could potentially have a 4.50+ ERA and be goofy bad, F-Her feels safe, but super bleh. 2017 Projections: 12-10/3.77/1.28/169 in 201 IP
40. Vince Velasquez – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 60 starters for 2017 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “These guys give me the good willies.” By the tier name I mean, you can get good willies and bad willies, and now I’m getting them good. As for Velasquez, already gave you my Vince Velasquez sleeper. It was written while I thought about how many Phillies starters I liked and how hurting for wins I’m going to be. Stupid wins! 2017 Projections: 11-11/3.54/1.23/177 in 155 IP
