To paraphrase Tupac from Brenda’s Got a Baby, “I hear Grey’s got 2017 fantasy baseball rankings, but Grey’s barely got a brain. A damn shame. That guy can hardly spell his name. GREY’S….GOT EM….RANKINGS! Don’t you know he’s got ’em. He wrote them solo, and he wrote them on his bathroom floor and didn’t know what to throw away and what to keep. He crumbled these rankings up and threw them in a trash heap. GREY’S….GOT EM….RANKINGS! Don’t you know he’s got ’em.” Don’t say I don’t keep my shizz socially conscious. Or is it socially conscience? Meh, doesn’t matter, I do it either way. So, this top 60 starters has seven pitchers I’m not crazy about. That’s more than the last post, but still not that many. I.e., there’s a ton of starters to draft. As with previous rankings posts, my projections are included and where I see tiers starting and stopping. Anyway, here’s the top 60 starters for 2017 fantasy baseball:
41. James Paxton – This tier started in the top 40 starters for 2017 fantasy baseball. This tier ends at Ray. I called this tier, “These guys give me the good willies.” I don’t know why I only see certain things. I’m like Haley Joel Osment but I see pitchers. Or could I be wrong. We’re drafting for 2017, right? We’re not drafting for last year, correct? Okay, then I’m so confused about the people not in on Paxton. Last year, he had a 8.8 K/9 and a 1.8 BB/9. To give it to as simple as possible, if you strike out hitters and don’t walk them, people can’t score. I know, rocket science. Then you throw in some of his mind-blowing attributes. He had a 97 MPH fastball on average. That’s amazing…for a closer! Two starters were better: Syndergaard and Eovaldi. That’s not even Paxton’s ‘see ya’ pitch, that would be his cutter. You can imagine when a guy is setting up with a 97 MPH fastball, a cutter is killer. He had the 4th best cutter in the majors behind Lester, Wainwright and Kluber. He had the 11th best walk rate. Only guy above him in that list that had a better K/9? You guessed it, Kershaw. Paxton had the 19th lowest pull percentage. Everything people hit, they hit the other way. Hard to do damage like that. So, why did he have a 3.79 ERA last year? Cause he had a .347 BABIP which was partially unlucky and partially due to hard contact. People hit the ball the other way, but they hit it hard. That’s the big problem. If he can use his terrific command to make hitters make less solid contact or miss more bats or simply walk a few more guys here and there to avoid grooving a pitch, Paxton will be an ace. 2017 Projections: 14-10/3.53/1.26/181 in 178 IP
42. Jameson Taillon – I have a slight concern that like so many starters before Taillon, in history and in this ranking, Taillon is going to disappoint this year after a terrific rookie year and then he’s going be worthy of this ranking in 2018. Happens so many times, but this is obvi anecdotal. Nothing says Taillon has to take this route to success. He doesn’t need to wait until his third year, maybe he’s great in his sophomore slump year while pronouncing the second O in sophomore. Taillon’s numbers say he should not disappoint. I mean, seriously, really, awkward sentence interjection, what kind of rookie comes up and has a 1.5 BB/9. That’s insane with a 6+ K/9 and Taillon has 8+ K/9 ability. 2017 Projections: 10-7/3.44/1.10/163 in 180 IP
43. Matt Shoemaker – I swear to you, every year I draft Shoemaker, and every year I drop him some time before April 10th. That’s not to say he’s bad every year. Some years I regret dropping him, some years I don’t. I just know that I love him in March and can’t stand his stupid face come April. In my defense, his peripherals always look so much better than his ERA. Okay, his ERA in 2014 was 3.02, so I have no defense for that year. 2017 Projections: 10-12/3.49/1.15/161 in 180
44. Carlos Rodon – All of the guys in this tier, and there’s a shizzton, had reasons for not being in the Gausman tier in the top 40 starters. There are some negatives. Rodon’s negative is a positive, which is just irony for irony sake. What are you, Wes Anderson’s production design? We get it, Rodon, it’s quirky to have a 94 MPH fastball while it also being your worst pitch. Cute, why don’t you get Jason Schwartzman and Owen Wilson to argue over it too? Rodon’s saving grace is he’s young and he had a great 2nd half. He builds on that (9.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 3.45 ERA), and it’s going to be lights out, though with some more fossil fuels we can get the lights back on. 2017 Projections: 10-12/3.78/1.30/188 in 185 IP
45. Joe Ross – Why am I hearing music in my head when I rank Joe Ross? This awful club beat. Now I hear a slow clapping. J.B.’s Disembodied Voice, “Grey, Joe Ross is going to be a top 10 starter in my rankings and the higher you rank him, the less gong you will receive during our podcasts.” Is where I have Ross now high enough? “It’s not bad, you might only get two gongs.” So, I like Ross, obviously not as much as J.B., but I do think he’s capable of a 8 K/9 and a 3.50-ish ERA, but he’s still failed to pitch more than 105 IP in a season and the Nats’ GM is saying Ross will have to earn his rotation spot. I don’t buy that, seems like some kind of weird negging motivational tool like a gong. 2017 Projections: 11-7/3.56/1.25/139 in 153 IP
46. Michael Fulmer – Full Disclosure Alert! I juggled Fulmer from a tier I didn’t want to this tier where I can see myself owning him. In the end, I liked his youth and upside enough to put him here. He’s too young (24 in March) to label a 7.5 K/9 guy simply because he was last year. Fulmer is a number three starter with potential to be a number two. He has three pitches, one being a 95 MPH fastball, while relying on his breaking pitches. Here’s Trout meeting a breaking pitch:
Bye-bye, Trout, bye bye. For changeups, he had the 6th best one in the majors last year. The top ten isn’t all gorge (F-Her’s there, Marco Estrada, Brandon Finnegan), but Fulmer’s fastball to change is dramatic enough of a difference to make it highly successful. Hoping Fulmer doesn’t disappoint for the next four years, then get traded to the Red Sox and put up a Cy Young year. 2017 Projections: 13-10/3.64/1.16/169 in 182 IP
47. Robbie Ray – Already gave you my Robbie Ray sleeper. It was written without a safety word. 2017 Projections: 13-9/3.67/1.24/226 Ks in 190 IP
48. Jake Odorizzi – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Happ. This tier I call, “Trying to find a balance like Atmosphere.” This tier is another tier similar to the Tanaka one in the top 40 starters where we attempt to cushion the fall from beginning our staff with Salazar/McCullers/Paxton, i.e., “Holy crap, my pitching is going to be scary good or scary awful.” This tier should help with that. All the guys in these tier could be better than this, so they have slight upside, but they, more importantly, lack dramatic downside. Their range of outcomes are fairly closely aligned like the threads on my 1500 count sheets. As for Odorizzi, his K/9 the last two years is 7.97 and 7.96. Kyle Seager called and said stop copying his predictable reliability, then Odorizzi said, “Is this Dominos Pizza? I’ve been waiting almost two hours.” 2017 Projections: 9-12/3.54/1.16/169 in 192 IP
49. Julio Teheran – The Iron Sheik’s fantasy baseball rankings: Teheran, Trout, Curled Boots. That’s overall! “Teheran is #1, ptooey everyone who says otherwise.” If Trump bans Teheran because he sounds like an Iranian city or because he’s Latin, then I’ll move him down the rankings. The Latin thing could really play havoc on my rankings, in general. 2017 Projections: 10-13/3.39/1.14/175 in 200 IP
50. Jason Hammel – After he signed with (insert team), I said, “Insert thoughts!” And that’s me Mad Libbing me! Honestly, it doesn’t matter where Hammel pitches, unless it’s Coors. *looks at his player page* Wow, he once pitched on the Rockies? I didn’t remember that at all. The, uh, uh, uh, the thing inside my head that I use to think is not what it once was! Unrelated Story Alert! While Cougs was getting stitches out of her foot (don’t ask), the foot doc tells me a story about how one day when Dr. Dre’s “people” were waiting in the lobby to pick up orthopedic pads for all his wife’s expensive shoes, P. Diddy walked in and had to wait in the lobby too. Cougs’ foot doctor starting a turf war! UPDATE: Hammel signed with the Royals, and the above remains true. Even about Diddy! 2017 Projections: 13-10/3.71/1.23/171 in 185 IP
51. J.A. Happ – The ‘safe’ starters this year are all on some sucky-ass teams. Sorry, Jays fans, but your team is not good, and, if you think it is, you need to ask an unbiased third party to look at your potential Opening Day lineup. Pillar, Smoak, Ezequiel… Sounds like a blacksmith in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. Happ is exactly this tier. Somewhere in the 7+ K/9 range, 2+ BB/9 guy and a great ERA with luck and a terrible ERA with no luck and an okay ERA with neutral luck. 2017 Projections: 12-11/3.67/1.23/157 in 188 IP
52. Steven Matz – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Manaea. I call this tier, “*pulling off daisy flowers* I love him, I love him not, I love him…*sees it’s the last flower* Well, maybe next year.” This tier is filled with guys that I have enjoyed in years past, and might enjoy again as soon as 2018 (really, I might like them by May), but, as of right now, I am not drafting them. Brucely, if a guy is on waivers and pitching well, I’ll pick him up in-season, no matter what I think about him in the preseason, but these guys won’t be drafted by me. As for Matz, you know what I don’t love? Beyonce’s latest album? Yes, but the world is obligated to not say that. What I don’t love about Matz is before drafting him, you need to Google, “Is Matz’s arm still attached to body?” That makes me not want to draft Matz. 2017 Projections: 10-7/3.55/1.22/145 in 154 IP
53. Matt Harvey – Another name for this tier could’ve been, “Man, the Mets effed up their pitchers.” Scott Boras says Harvey will be ready for the 2017 season. Boras also said the Easter Bunny exists, then sold the Easter Bunny’s ‘chocolate hiding services’ to the Shah of Sunset for $40.5 mill over two years with a no-trade clause. The Easter Bunny still has not shown up to camp to train. They say it’s a visa issue. 2017 Projections: 8-6/3.71/1.23/129 in 145 IP
54. Jeff Samardzija – It’s a bit of a lie to say Samardzija fits in a tier of guys that I could love next year. I’m never going to love Samardzija again. This is you owning Samardzija, “Hey, he’s in Coors, I think I’ll bench him,” and he goes out and pitches a gem. Then the following start, “Well, he’s going against the Padres at home, so I have to start him,” and, after the game, you’re justifying it with, “At least I had Corey Spangenberg active in one league for his four homer game.” 2017 Projections: 12-10/3.69/1.24/163 in 204 IP
55. Sean Manaea – I could just say I didn’t like the huge innings jump from 2015 to 2016, but that would be lame like Verducci saying it every year, while ignoring everything else and pretending it’s a successful strategy for picking pitchers who will break down. I could also say how Manaea is going to be on the A’s and will struggle to win even nine games, but wins are fickle yadda3. I could say how Manaea is Samoan and I’m more of a Thin Mint man, but I hate minty sweet things, so that’s just a lie. Samoans are so bomb dot gov. What I will say after saying all that which I won’t say that I did kinda just say, Manaea’s average vs. righties and he’s mostly just a MediOAKer. In fairness to him, he’s mostly just an untrustworthy 7+ K/9, 2 BB/9 guy. 2017 Projections: 9-11/3.78/1.25/154 in 176 IP
56. Dallas Keuchel – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 80 starters for 2017 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “The Board.” By the tier name I mean, when I was a kid, I used to race Hot Wheels cars. The Corvette Hot Wheels with a Lego Yogi Bear was always the fastest. Pure, innocent fun had by me and all my imaginary friends. To race the cars, I had to lug a stupid ironing board up from the basement and every time I carried it an adult would make some forced joke about how I was finally going to do the ironing. That ironing board led to fun, but was a pain in the ass. This tier will lead to fun, but it’s not fun itself; this tier is the board. As for Keuchel, he throws a 88 MPH fastball. Is it that surprising that he cut his change usage by five percent? A change is not going to work when it’s set up by junk. This made him very reliant on his slider, upping its usage almost 7%. When you know a pitch is coming, it’s also not going to be effective. Keuchel is one of those pitchers I’d actually like to face, and I haven’t faced live pitching in 27 years. I still contend the last pitcher I faced was rubbing pimple juice on his pitches. 2017 Projections: 12-9/3.87/1.25/165 in 202 IP
57. Drew Pomeranz – I expect Eduardo Rodriguez starting for the Red Sox by June and Pomeranz to be moved to the bullpen or to a phantom DL stint. I loved Pomeranz last year, but I just don’t see him surviving in the AL East and Fenway. In the 2nd half last year, he had a 4.59 ERA with a .306 BABIP and 79.3% of men left on base. Neither number is particularly unlucky for Fenway, a park where he had a 6.43 ERA. Ironically, if you stay away from Pomeranz, you’ll be yappy. 2017 Projections: 8-11/3.94/1.25/165 in 170 IP
58. Hisashi Iwakuma – How did Hisashi get so old so fast? He went from a rookie five years ago to 36 years old this year. It’s almost like he was a 31-year-old rookie. Haha, so weird! *intern whispers in my ear* Say what now? Oh. Any hoo! The shine’s worn off and Hisashi my dashi — slurp SLURP’s ramen is now gluten-free, and buckwheat noodles are mad funky. 2017 Projections: 13-11/3.87/1.31/150 in 204 IP
59. Ian Kennedy – Is he really this bad? I’m guilty of thinking Kennedy is, but there’s strong evidence he’s not. So, why is he ranked in a tier to avoid? I just told you, I don’t think much of him. Elements are here for Kennedy to be safe, but that’s also what the Secret Service said in 1963. 2017 Projections: 9-12/3.94/1.28/176 in 190 IP
60. Collin McHugh – His peripherals have been better than Keuchel’s and should likely be above him, but his results have been less than stellar for two years and the one year he had a solid ERA it came with a .259 BABIP. Also, McHugh’s 1.41 WHIP and 4.34 ERA last year has more blemishes than Cameron Diaz. 2017 Projections: 13-11/3.95/1.32/181 in 195 IP
