We’re taking these outfielders to 120 total, so this should still be the beginning of wonderful for you, but as you look down this list, guys like Matt Kemp become more attractive and not just if you’re an R&B singer.  Rap is not pop, if you call it that then stop.  I’m going aggressive for guys like Kepler and Piss-hotty (sounds like watersports, right, Mr. President?), because the alternative is dank with excitement.  Stephen Hawking’s hitting his keyboard robotically telling us, “It’s a black hole for outfielders, we need to spontaneously combust some new ones.”  Then Stephen jots down a letter to Eddie Redmayne about a sequel to The Theory of Everything; Eddie’s got a binder of these letters.  As always, my projections are noted for each player and where I see tiers starting and stopping.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2017 fantasy baseball:

21. Matt Kemp – You may want to draft these guys, and, maybe for the right price (like a steep discount) even I would draft some of them, but one thing you won’t argue, or at least you shouldn’t, unless you’re in one of your real ornery moods, you know these guys.  There’s no arguing what you’re going to get.  If you don’t know what Kemp is going to give you at this point, then welcome to fantasy baseball.  We don’t judge your sweatpants here, and, yes, Doritos are their own food group.  If Kemp is healthy, you know what you’re going to get, and if he’s not healthy, you also know.  2017 Projections:  78/27/94/.266/2 in 572 ABs

22. Adam Jones – There is some comfort in this tier.  Maybe I should’ve called this tier, Comatose Harry at the Comfort Inn, but that’s just silly for a tier name.  How can you go wrong with 27 HRs and 2 SBs from all your outfielders?  Well, you might come up a little short on steals, but, you’re not totally wrong.  You can fill out your team with one of these outfielders, if you went crazy upside in the first two rounds with, say, Bryce and Turner, but I’d count on nothing more from this tier than exactly what you’ve seen from them for the past five to eight years.  2017 Projections: 92/27/78/.268/3 in 599 ABs

23. Byron Buxton – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Schwarber.  I call this tier, “I sunk your battleship!  Wait, that’s not Risk.”  By this tier name I mean, these guys could totally screw you up, but damn if their upside isn’t so sexy I need to take that chance.  As for Buxton, already gave you my Byron Buxton sleeper.  It was a post originally found in a bottle washing ashore in a wave pool in a water park.  2017 Projections:  65/18/57/.232/26 in 522 ABs

24. Adam Duvall – Essentially Khris Davis in a better park.  What’s a Khris Davis?  Keep reading.  2017 Projections:  74/34/92/.244/5 in 547 ABs

25. Khris Davis – I’ll be honest, Davis has got me like this –> insert shrugging emoji that unknowingly has a truck about to run it over.  There’s very few players with the power of Davis.  He has 40-homer power.  He hit 42 homers last year!  Oddly, though, that does more in mind to disprove ‘he can hit 40 homers’ the more I look at it.  He led the league with sixteen Just Enough home runs.  His HR/FB% went up to a 26.6%, which is a lot for any man.  His career mark is over 20% so it’s not like he doesn’t hit homers.  Maybe he’s a 35-homer guy who needs to get a little lucky for 40+.  That’s not so bad, I guess. (Spewing confidence here!)  Why I’m so concerned with his power?  It’s all he has.  33+ homers with .245 is fine.  27 homers and .245 is not easy to own.  So hopefully it’s the former, if former means first one.  2017 Projections:  72/34/89/.247/2 in 530 ABs

26. Stephen Piscotty – As I’ve mentioned before, I look at others’ projections.  So, when I saw the 26-year-old Piscotty hit 22 homers last year and now everyone is projecting him for 16 homers, I was confused.  Stephen was no help either, because Piscotty doesn’t know!  Piscotty doesn’t know!  He has a career 13% HR/FB and 36% fly ball rate (about 160 fly balls).  Dirty math says a career average home run year gets him 21 homers.  Piscotty averaged 407 feet on his home runs, about the same as Chris Davis and Carlos Santana.  I’m optimistic we’re going to get more from Piscotty — Opiscotimistic?  2017 Projections:  78/24/92/.277/9 in 573 ABs

27. Andrew Benintendi – Already gave you my Andrew Benintendi fantasy.  Like someone being woke, that post was wrote.  2017 Projections:  79/16/68/.303/19 in 480 ABs

28. J.D. Martinez – Just Dong is the 38-homer, .280 guy he was two years ago.  That wasn’t a fluke.  Just like Giancarlo is a 40+ homer guy.  The problem:  health.  Just Dong has to stay healthy for that long, satisfactory HBI.  I feel like I’m writing a letter to Playgirl.

Dear Editor,

There’s only two players that bring me to climax in the HBI tier.  Is this too few?  Should I try to bring in another player to help elongate my HBI.  Perhaps someone Braun-y?  Maybe we can go Cruz’ing?

Yours,

Fantasy Master Lothario

UPDATE:  Just Dong sprained his Lisfranc, which sounds like some kind of European treaty.  “At the Lisfranc Accords, Goebbels dropped trou and asked the Romanian diplomat to kiss his birthmark that looked just like a poppyseed bagel.”   A little history lesson for everyone.  Goebbels was very proud of his poppyseed bagel birthmark that resided on his backside, but he called it a poopyseed bagel.  So, this obviously sucks major poopyseed bagels for Just Dong and I’ve docked him hundred at-bats.  I’d still draft him, but I’m be damned in the poopyseed if I don’t think we’re never going to see more than 400 ABs from this guy ever.  2017 Projections:  78/25/71/.282/1 in 451 ABs

29. Kyle Schwarber – Already went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2017 fantasy baseball.

30. Andrew McCutchen – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Pence.  I call this tier, “Comatose Harry in the Comfort Inn.”  You’re Comatose Harry.  Not you you, but the Royal You.  The illustrative you.  You don’t think outfield is shallow because you’ve been in a coma for the last twelve months.  You’re excited about McCutchen!  You can’t wait for CarGo!  And you’re voting for Dr. Ben Carson!  As for McCutchen, and really this tier, in general, these guys are old and aren’t trustworthy.  This offseason McCutchen admitted he just didn’t perform last year, had nothing to do with an injury.  After he made that statement, someone should have sat him down, prolly his agent, and said, “Dude!  You always blame something out of your control!  What are you doing?!”  McClutchin His Knee got old and, apparently, way too responsible for his own actions.  2017 Projections:  87/21/90/.263/7 in 556 ABs

31. Justin Upton – You’re Comatose Harry if you’ve forgotten how Upton reached his respectable stat line of 31 HRs, 9 SBs last year.  You need some smelling salts in the form of a month of May with one homer, one steal while hitting .213 or an April of 2 homers and .221.  Or three straight months of only five homers from June thru August.  You wanna buy into Upton’s September of 15 homers and .307?  Be my guest.  In fact, you’re my guest of honor at my dinner party for the guy who quits fantasy baseball in July to prep for football.  2017 Projections: 77/27/85/.249/10 in 565 ABs

32. Jose BautistaChris Davis, Lorenzo Cain, Jason Heyward, Brandon Belt, Jacoby Ellsbury, Michael Brantley, Carlos Gomez and Hanley.  That’s not counting Bautista, Pence, Pollock, Schwarber and Giancarlo.  Can you tell what I’m talking about?  The 1st group is outfielders who were ranked in the top 30 last year that either lost eligibility or just sucked.  Then the 2nd group are guys that were injured for more or less the whole year.  You don’t think outfield is a mess?  13 out of 30 outfielders last year either looked like garbage or were hurt garbage.  And that’s considering McCutchen and Justin Upton NOT garbage!  (Ungarbage?)  So, with that said, I can understand why you’d wanna try Bautista if he falls in drafts, but he’s on the bad side of “hopefully he hits 40+ homers and .250.”  2017 Projections:  81/30/90/.244/2 in 488 ABs

33. Hunter Pence – “Tie his feet to the ground in front of the ethereal escalator.  Now tie his wrists to the top of the ethereal escalator.  Now stretch him.”  That’s God making the Hunter Pence model.    The Gangly Manbird is so hard to dislike.  He throws like a female emu, for crissakes!  Who could dislike that?  Take Kendrick Lamar’s song, Hood Politics (that’s the one with the chorus where he sings “Boo, Boo!”), and remake it for Pence coming to bat, “I’ve been A-1 since day one, you know I’m emu!  Emu!”  As for his fantasy value, hmm, 20 HRs, .275 with no steals really excites you?  Yeah, me neither.  2017 Projections: 86/20/78/.275/3 in 578 ABs

34. Jose Peraza – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the top 60 outfielders for 2017 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Not Qaddafi, y’all leadoff-y.”  The guys in this tier may not leadoff for their team, but they are that profile.  In the big picture, this is around the end of the top 100 to 120 overall.  This is the point where you’re more team-focused.  If your team is heavy on RBIs and power, you want runs and speed.  If your team is heavy on speed, then this tier isn’t mustarding your dog.  As for Peraza, already went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball.

35. Billy Hamilton – Him and Peraza are the first outfielders that are either very draftable or not draftable at all, i.e., they’re more specialized than any other outfielder so far.  If you drafted Pollock (A.J. not accidentally Pierzynski), you have steals and Hamilton is less attractive.  If you have Yoenis — Yo tengo? — then Hamilton’s 60 steals look better.  2017 Projections: 75/4/40/.253/60 in 509 ABs

36. David Dahl – I already gave you my David Dahl sleeper.  Psyche.  I wanted to, and maybe I will still, but I have not given you a Dahl sleeper post, because he’s not a sleeper in my mind.  What happens in my mind dictates everything.  You sure about that?  Not now, Random Italicized Voice, I’m making a point.  You sure are.  What I mean is, if Dahl is going crazy late in drafts vs. where I think he should be going, then he’s a sleeper.  Nothing I can do about where others value Dahl.  But in some macro ways that’s how all sleepers are.  I said Devon Travis is a sleeper, because I think people will be undervaluing him.  He’s not a sleeper to me, I know how to value him.  This is super-pedantic.  Last year in 63 games, Dahl hit 7 HRs after destroying the minors.  He hit 13 HRs in Double-A, which gives the yawns, until you see it was in 76 games.  5 HRs in Triple-A, which is whatever, until you realize it was in 16 games.  So, he’s got power and will call Coors home, that sounds good enough, but then you throw in that he had more steals (16) than homers in Double-A and stole five bags last year in those 63 major league games.  I went over in the top 20 overall Rockies hitters batting below .250 and how impossible I think it is.  Speaking of the top 20, Dahl feels like he will be there next year, but, honestly, in the grand scheme of things, I’m not ranking him much below that this year.  This is likely a top 60 guy right now.  That’s not a sleeper, is it?  Meh, I need to figure out this sleeper or not thing.  UPDATE:  Dahl has a stress reaction of his rib and will definitely start the year on the DL.  Can’t we take Adam Eaton’s rib and give it to Dahl?  I still like Dahl, but the rib injury obviously adds a bit more risk.  2017 Projections:  62/16/74/.271/16 in 478 ABs

37. Dexter Fowler – Here’s what I said this offseason, “(Fowler) signed with the Cards.  JB and I went over the Fowler signing on our last fantasy baseball podcast (clickbait!).  There I said, dot dot dot, hmm, I’m not sure.  Who the hell could understand me with that garbled Jersey accent?  I sound like a male Fran Drescher.  Call me, Man Drescher.  Oh, I know, I likely compared Fowler to Adam Eaton, another offseason signing.  They are similar, but Fowler has more power and speed, but less chance of staying healthy all year, which I’d contend in shallower leagues is a positive, because of the ability to fill in for Fowler off waivers.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2017 Projections:   86/15/42/.261/17 in 512 ABs

38. Adam Eaton – Here’s what I said this offseason, “The White Sox traded Adam Eaton for Reynaldo Lopez, Dane Dunning and top pitching prospect, Lucas Giolito; the second day in a row top prospects are headed to the White Sox.  It doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibilities that Theo Epstein is studying abroad this winter and abroad is the South Side of Chicago.  “Excuse me, but, uh, why do you have this electrodes hooked up to my brain?”  That’s Theo Epstein as Rick Hahn dips out of the interrogation room to get coffee.  If I were a fan of a club that had no chance of winning next year, I’d want my team to go about rebuilding like the White Sox.  The White Sox have taken a bunch of lemons, planted lemon seeds next to a sugar plantation that they purchased off eBay and should have lemonade in a few years.  They might even trade that old guy from the Country Time Lemonade commercial for another prospect!  As for fantasy, Adam Eaton went 14/14 and 14/18 the last two years, which is deceptively awful.  It’s one thing to go 14/14, it’s another thing to go 14/14 in 619 ABs.  He’s like Markakis.  If you own Eaton in any fantasy league shallower than 14-team mixed, you should lose your league.  The problem with a guy like Eaton in a shallower league is anyone who is even half paying attention should be able to beat his stats with just a few decent waiver wire grabs.  You can likely beat Eaton’s numbers by just streaming hitters every day, and never even holding any guy who gets hot.  Eaton’s stats come out to one homer and one steal every two weeks.  Holy Jewish Jesus, that’s bad.  Sure, there’s some value to his 90+ runs and .280+ average, but if you can’t get runs and average that matches that from streaming, again, you deserve to lose.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2017 Projections: 102/12/49/.277/16 in 605 ABs

39. Odubel Herrera – ODB’s chop it down, hit it all around.  Ground balls get hard, quick cement to the ground.  For any hitter in any fifty-two states.  I know the psycho killer, Curt Casali.  Fa-fa-fa-fa-fa-fa!  Damn, I’m like Girl Talk up in here mixing shizz.  ODB should be the leadoff man in Philly, but he’ll likely hit third, which is solid for his value.  His margin of error isn’t as bad as Yelich, but he does hit a lot of ground balls and not a ton of fly balls.  He does do a lot of things right though — ODB gotz OBP! which is also his latest album.  2017 Projections:  79/11/83/.292/27 in 551 ABs

40. Leonys Martin – Already gave you my Leonys Martin sleeper.  It was written while on the Master Cleanse. 2017 Projections:  72/16/61/.251/31 in 560 ABs

187 Comments
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Alex
Alex
5 years ago

Hey Grey,

I am in a keeper league, already keeping Betts (rd 7) and Segura (rd 14), my third option is between Odubel Herrera (rd 20) or Jose Ramirez (rd 16). Your thoughts?

jvetter
jvetter
5 years ago

Odubel Herrera hits near league average fly balls (32.0% last year, 29.3% in 2015). Not really comparable to Yelich.

Matty39
Matty39
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

Hey Grey – need keeper help. 16 team keeper league 6×6
Have to protect 5 of the following :
J.Altuve
R.Braun
G.Polanco
Chris Davis
Khris Davis
Tulo
Jackie Bradley jr
Jake Lamb

I know Altuve and Braun and Polanco are the for sure choices
3 OF and 1 Utl spot

Juan
Juan
5 years ago

Better keeper to have Franco or Villar?
In need of a SS of trea is not eligible or bregman.

Sing Us a Vogelsong You're the Pineda Man
Sing Us a Vogelsong You're the Pineda Man
5 years ago

Trade Strasburg for Carrasco? Or hold?

Thanks for the write-ups!

Rock D
Rock D
5 years ago

Keeper league. Would you trade kris bryant with one year left for 3 years of trea turner?

TobiasFunkeAnalRapist
TobiasFunkeAnalRapist
Reply to  Rock D
5 years ago

@Rock D: Depends on a lot of other factors… such as rest of team strength, size of league and league scoring. If you doubt you can win this next year (which you can’t really know that right now) then it makes more sense. For myself, I’d wanna win now…

Rock D
Rock D
Reply to  TobiasFunkeAnalRapist
5 years ago

@TobiasFunkeAnalRapist: yeah it’s a tough one for me. Betts, Seager, and dahl are my other keepers. I just picture him as the next Altuve and it intrigues the hell out of me. It’s a weekly head to head league not Roto. Avg, runs, rbi, hr, sb league. Very shallow league. No ci, mi, only 3 OF. Two util spots.

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
5 years ago

What do you think of this deal. To much, not enough, just right.

trade:
Adam Jones
Todd Frazier
Andrew McCutchen

for
Kris Bryant
Anthony Rizzo

Dynasty

TobiasFunkeAnalRapist
TobiasFunkeAnalRapist
Reply to  Malicious Phenoms
5 years ago

@Malicious Phenoms: id do it all day

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  Malicious Phenoms
5 years ago

@Malicious Phenoms: how did you manage that amazing deal?!

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
5 years ago

@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?:
I was thinking of offering it. Just wanted to see the reactions in here first. I new it wasn’t enough.

What would I have to add to make trade even..Not trying to burn anyone, I just want to offer what ever it takes to get the two Cubs..

What type of player should I add to close the deal.

Cheeers

TobiasFunkeAnalRapist
TobiasFunkeAnalRapist
Reply to  Malicious Phenoms
5 years ago

@Malicious Phenoms: You’d need a top ten, 15 if you get lucky.. Unless the dude is stuck in 2014, this deal is really bad the way it is right now.

Big Odio
Big Odio
5 years ago

Oinkster day!

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: I went with my dad today. We had to see a client near silver lake

Warren
Warren
5 years ago

Donaldson and Harper for Trout? Which side ?

Strolg
Strolg
5 years ago

My wife loves your nickname for Pence, though she turned to me during the playoffs and said his walk up song should be ‘Hurdy Gurdy Man’.

swaggerjackers
swaggerjackers
5 years ago

I kept thinking I should have been dropping Jackie Bradley throughout last season but he kept on delivering enough to stay in my lineup. Good to see the underlying numbers support the success. I’ll be back for another share this season.

Kepler above Adam Jones and McCutch is going to blow some people’s minds but I get it.

swaggerjackers
swaggerjackers
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Bautista is one that I’m having a hard time crossing off the list. He’s old as dirt but in OBP leagues, it sure is nice that he piles up those walks.

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
5 years ago

Grey,

Any word on a suspension for Familia?

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
5 years ago

Grey,

Which SP would you go for as a free agent:

Zach Davies
Jeremy Hellickson

Rich
Rich
5 years ago

16 team league, 6 keepers each year, salary goes up $10 each year, 9 offensive starters, 7 pitchers. Just received an offer of Odor ($16), Bogaerts ($25), and Porcello ($3) for my Mookie ($30). My other keepers are Ian Desmond ($20), Michael Fulmer ($1), Edwin Diaz ($10), Ozuna ($4), Just Dong ($30) or Kipnis ($12). Do I pull the trigger? Could also try to ask for Trumbo ($12) or Tanner Roark ($2), or Danny Duffy ($10) instead of Porcello. Do I pull the trigger?

Geoff
5 years ago

I’m upset that Girl Talk wasn’t a reference to DJ, Stephanie, Kmmy, and Gia’s band that covered Ace of Bass in the latest season of Fuller House.

Shill Team 6
Shill Team 6
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey:
True!! I legit puked when I saw how much my 8 month old made. Reminded me of MRE chili paste and spinach smushed together.

Big C
Big C
5 years ago

Keeper league no restrictions. Keep 13 total.

For OF so far have:
Blackmon
Harper
Polanco
Pollack

Whoelse should I keep to go with the 5 above?
Schwarber
Piscotty
Mazara

Big C
Big C
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey:
Thanks, Unfortunately just one.

jeff
jeff
5 years ago

Love this site and love the rankings! I need help with a couple keeper/trade ideas. I’m in an NL only keeper league -one team owns a $10 Grichuk and a $7 David Dahl and I’d love to have one of them in my OF heading into the auction. I think they are both inexpensive and loaded with upside. I currently own Piscotty at $7 and Fowler at $20 right now for my OF. I’ve got too many keepers and looking to deal, while also saving some $$ for the draft. Would you guys trade any of the following in any combo for Grichuk and/or Dahl without totally fleecing the other owner:

$29 Matt Carpenter, $16 R. Iglesias, $13 Matt Harvey, $7 Chris Owings, $5 Eugenio Suarez, $4 Adam Conley

I love Carpenter’s versatility and ability to produce, but at $29 I don’t think he’s going to provide any upside. But maybe I keep him and try and deal a $20 Dexter Fowler instead?

Packers
Packers
5 years ago

Grey, commentators and yourself often refer to outfielders and starting pitchers as an OF3 or OF4, and the same for starting pitchers. I get that Trout and Betts are OF1, but in 12 team 5OF leagues what stats or tiers are we looking for? I’m thinking OF5 might be a sagnof guy. Is it simply how they come off the board?

Packers
Packers
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: ok, thanks. So, this one dynasty team I have Cespedas, JD, Fowler, Kiermeier, L. Martin and Margot on reserves. I was concerned but now I think I’m fine.

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
5 years ago

Interesting DeGrom tidbit from last year I just heard – DeGrom’s ERA was sub-2.50 until his final 3 starts before the surgery, where he posted a 9+ ERA. Seems like a nice and clean explanation of that one, right?

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: That’s definitely the rub. Though, from the sound of his procedure, it seemed pretty noninvasive. Strikes me as someone I’d want to watch velocity numbers on in Spring Training.

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Hah!

JeF WiTh 1 F
JeF WiTh 1 F
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: LOL

ROTO OVERLORD
ROTO OVERLORD
5 years ago

Welcome back to another year!

Desmond Dahl Odor Goldy and Darvish keep 4 , darvish is like a 20th round keep. goldy a 1st round, dahl 15th and odor a few rounds before dahl.

Who you like to win HK?

ROTO OVERLORD
ROTO OVERLORD
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: all the hype surrounding dahl I just feel aweful letting him and polanco go, but they both have to prove it I agree. Carrasco in the 6th but its hard to believe hes on the other side of 30 already and that great season will be a one and done, could be a cy young, but wont last forever

SpecialFNK
SpecialFNK
5 years ago

picking 5 keepers.
no restrictions.
16 team, 5×5, roto, yahoo.

these are the options..
SP- Madison Bumgarner.
3B/SS- Manny Machado.
OF- Starling Marte
OF- Mark Trumbo.
OF- Christian Yelich
2B- Jonathan SChoop.
3B- Adrian Beltre

my top 4 would be Bumgarner/Machado/Marte/Trumbo and then between Yelich and Schoop for the last spot I’m thinking maybe Schoop? I already have 2 OF (4 OF league) and maybe Schoop at 2B would be better?

Adam
Adam
5 years ago

I play in a 7×7 and am trying to trade for Trea Turner. We keep 4 and Trea will only cost a 17th round pick this year, 15th next, then 13th and then he goes back to player pool. Right now my best keepers are Machado at 1st, Polanco at 5th, Dozier at 6th, Verlander at 12th round. The owner says it will take a kings ransom to get Trea, I’m wondering how many and which draft picks I should offer. Is 2nd and 3rd round pick too much to give? Thanks for any help!

Adam
Adam
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey:

I sent the offer of 2nd and 3rd for Trea but haven’t heard back yet. If it’s not enough, would you be happy adding a 4th, so 2,3,4 round picks for Trea to have him 3 years at such a bargain. Guess my other keeps would Machado 1, Dozier 6, Verlander 12. 3 picks seems like a lot too give…

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Adam
5 years ago

@Adam: Why don’t you ask him what exactly he wants from you? He’ll shoot high, then try to knock it down a little from there. I don’t think a 5th and 6th rounder is too much. It might no be enough actually.

Adam
Adam
Reply to  Cram It
5 years ago

@Cram It:

Yeah, I kind of tried that. I offered basically any 4 players off my team other than Manny. He has Arenado so he doesnt even newd manny as keeper.He said it didn’t move to needle so Illhave to try draft picks. Maybe start with 2nd and 3rd round picks and hopefully don’t have to add too much more. Don’t want it to be detrimental to my whole draft but I do want trea

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Adam
5 years ago

@Adam: Gonna be tough if he the players you own already don’t even move the needle for him. Doubt even a bunch of middle round picks would compensate for a guy he’s regarding as a stud.

Joe
Joe
5 years ago

HEy grey I’m in a 12 team dynasty league keep 20 7×7. Should I trade my mookie Betts, Austin meadows and either Swanson or berrios (hopefully berrios) for Chris sale Corey seager and David Dahl? Thank you

Joe
Joe
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: wow I thought I was getting s kings ransom for
Him in a dynasty league

Joe
Joe
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: if I somehow got the deal without giving meadows Swanson do you do it or is it more about you not liking the players km getting back

Joe
Joe
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Betts meadows and Swanson for Chris sale Corey seager and David Dahl. He would also give me a 3rd round pick in the deal. 12 team dynasty league

The Grand Poppy
The Grand Poppy
5 years ago

You project about 90 more AB’s for Billy than each of the last 2 years, but virtually no uptick in SB’s … why?

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
5 years ago

Grey,

I lost Strop to a first round draft. Who should I go after now for holds? My choices are:

Brad Hand
Tyler Clippard
Mychal Givens
Drew Storen
Carl Edwards, Jr.

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
5 years ago

In a keeper . . .

$30 Kershaw, $10 Dahl, and $6 Khris

OR

$19 Strasburg, $23 Blackmon, and $10 JD Mart?

If I took the Strasburg deal, Dahl and Khris would be free agents available in the draft.

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Thanks – yeah that $10 Dahl is what puts me in the Kershaw camp too, who could end up impersonating Blackmon as early as this year. If Strasburg were a guy like Kluber or Carrasco (or if you told me Stras would pitch 200 innings), that would bring me to the other side.

Thanks as always.

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Totally. I’m so not used to owning Kershaw (I traded for him from last year’s contender for non-keepers), but I guess I might as well enjoy the wealth and then have fun bargain hunting all of your SP sleepers for the rest of my rotation. This is a league where Bumgarner was kept at $43 and Grienke was drafted at $36, so definitely value to be had there still.

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: I’ve been trying – harder than you’d expect!

I have 2 confirmed 2:1 offers for Kershaw only, plus two more 2:1 maybe offers (listed below!). No one will trade Kershaw 1:1 for any top 10 bat, most of whom are very cheap. Also relevant – this weekly league keeps ALL top 20-25 SPs typically, with the remaining ones going for $30+, so it’s tough to go in without a staff ace of some level in your pocket.

Definite A. $12 Degrom and $10 JD Mart (I can keep Dahl in this scenario, or forego Dahl to free agency and also get $9 Duffy, $5 Rich Hill, or $7 Buxton).

Definite B. $23 Blackmon and one of $12 Hanley or $19 Strasburg (this owner would give me the same package for owner A’s Degrom, which is where my initial comment above came from)

Maybe C. $20 Kluber and $9 Desmond. We discussed this one already a few days ago and liked it a lot.

Maybe D. $11 Arrieta and $19 Todd Frazier Annoymous

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Haha Angry Grey? Is that like Todd Frazier in any manner?

Thanks again.

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Or not. It’s your choice.

Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh
5 years ago

On the clock soon – these in the right order: Salazar, Tanaka, Maeda…? thanks!

Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Gracias!

Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: So much for that plan, Salazar & Maeda got snatched up. :-( Now I’m looking Tanaka, Hill, Greinke, or Matz. Which do you like most?

Nick
Nick
5 years ago

Grey,

so you’re definitely saying to go Trumbo way before Khris Davis this season?

who would you rather pick?
Moustache ’17 projections:
player A: 72/26/81/.277/2
Player B: 86/20/78/.275/3
player C: 70/25/83/.252/5

A is Mazara @ OF26
B is Hunter Pence @ OF36
C… is Renfroe sleeper!! could be side to side with Mazara with a little better avg , youngster (24) with time to grow up !

Nick

Bob
Bob
5 years ago

5 player keeper H2H 7×7 league with no penalties. Would you keep Polanco over Cespedas due to upside and potential (and of course keeping him as a keeper next year when he’s more valuable)?

DozierTheDozierian
DozierTheDozierian
5 years ago

I’ll cop to having no flippin’ clue how to evaluate Khris Davis. Dude was all profit last year if you picked him up off waivers or drafted him late, and he seems to creep onto my time almost every season. It’s crazy that he blew away last year’s expected line yet is pre-ranked pretty much where he always is.

His hard-hit % was great, but LD% and contact % not so much, and his on-base skills are non-existent. I can keep him as a 12th rounder in my 10-team H2H w/ OPS but I’m scared about the 27-HR .247 possibility you raise. Do I bother gambling on last year’s line as a new norm (give or take some dingers) or do I leave some money on the dresser for the good time we had last year and say goodbye? I’ve already got guys like Arenado, Harper, and Franco slotted as my other keepers.

DozierTheDozierian
DozierTheDozierian
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: I generally dislike keeping arms but have Darvish (10th), Nola (20th), and Paxton (20th) as tantalizing options. My other hitters are either not keepable or no brainers (Correa). We keep 6 total.

DozierTheDozierian
DozierTheDozierian
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Agreed, and he’s sexy trade bait at that value too. Thanks as usual!

JC
JC
5 years ago

What would be the best combo. Three outfileders and one util. format. I have Bautista, Schwarber, Pollock, Adam Jones, and Mazzara. Who should I think about starting?

James T Kirk
James T Kirk
5 years ago

Damn, I wish I was in a league with you!! Getting McCutchen as the 33rd outfielder off the board would be absolutely INSANE!!! You do realize he just now entering his age 30 season? Maybe if he was three years older I would be more concerned. But we are talking about a stud who had a bad season. Has he not looked like his normal self all of September I might also be more skeptical. Count me as someone that wants McCutchen on all my teams this season!! You can overpay for Trea Turner and I will gladly take ‘Cutch at whatever discounted price I can get him at.

#33……NUTS!

DisEnFranchised
DisEnFranchised
Reply to  James T Kirk
5 years ago

@James T Kirk: I am a big fan of McCutcheon but I am doubtful of his speed returning to form. Also he’s not likely to top mid 20 HRs with a ceiling in the low 30s; so I think he’s fitting as a OF3 now. And I’d be happy to have him as an OF3 with hopes of a return to form. Then I hope to go with upside OF as my bench bat or OFs 4-5

Robert
Robert
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Siri, remind me of this post in 5 months, so I can put roses at the grave of McCutchen’s lost steals and waning career…

ERad
ERad
5 years ago

Man, can I just draft 5 shortstops instead of outfielders?

What is going on here

Plasmaj
Plasmaj
5 years ago

Keeper help needed. We can keep 4 with no restrictions. Standard 12 team CBS mixed league.
The first 2 (probably 3) options seem obvious but after that, it’s tough

Choices are :
J Altuve
C Correa
R Odor
J Abreu
W Myers
Y Darvish
P Polanco
D Dahl
K Schwarber

DisEnFranchised
DisEnFranchised
Reply to  Plasmaj
5 years ago

@Plasmaj: Altuve, Correa, Odor, and Schwarber. Although I struggled with Schwarber over the rest. Except P Polanco? Darvish might be good to keep as your potential ace but it’s like taking a SP in rounds 1-4, which I’m not fond of.

Fungazi
Fungazi
5 years ago

When does the JB top 100 SP come out? Is it not until like a week before the season starts if I remember from last year?

Fungazi
Fungazi
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Nice

seph meier
seph meier
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey:

I expect Joe Ross in the top 5

Burningbridges247
Burningbridges247
5 years ago

Like Herrera a lot, and he seems relatively “safe” at a low price; people seem to give him little love. Pair that with my Franco love and I don’t see me passing on Herrera. Synergy, baby- synergy.

Burningbridges247
Burningbridges247
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Are you besmirching me, sir?

Burningbridges247
Burningbridges247
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: That doesn’t just wash off, ya know.

Burningbridges247
Burningbridges247
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: And the besmirching continues…..

Burningbridges247
Burningbridges247
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: You never told mr you spoke French, FancyPants.

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
5 years ago

Now that I changed my name I get the notice “waiting for moderation” Never had that. Weird.

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Grey is right again!

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
5 years ago

Interesting 21-40! Makes sense, though I see myself targeting top 20 guys then being happy to wait on the 40+ upsiders and use my picks that would have gone to the top 21-40 OF on SPs and infielders.

Given your concerns about Khris quickly becoming tough to own if he’s not hitting 35+, which sides do you like in this keeper trade in a keep 7 league (my other keepers are 3 top 10 or 20 bats, plus moncada and dahl):

$30 Kershaw and $6 Khris – or – drop Khris to free agency pool and keep:

$12 Degrom and either $9 Duffy or $5 Hill

Thanks!

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
5 years ago

@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: $6 Khris is fine.

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  Cram It
5 years ago

@Cram It: Thanks. Hoping to upgrade him to a $9 Desmond and swap Kershaw for a $20 Kluber, but that’s held up at the moment (and this is the other one available).

I really like the idea pairing Khris with King SAGNOF (who should also come nice and cheap) to create two 20-25 HR, 18-20 SB .250 OFs.

Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Good call, thanks!

Angry Grey
Angry Grey
Reply to  Duda Want to Build a Snowman?
5 years ago

@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: make a trade already bro

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
5 years ago

Will Tomas be ranked higher than OZUNA at least? I know we’ll see

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Grey!

‘Cause he hits in AZ and because he really started to figure it out at the end of last year. If he can carry that over, I could see him getting 40 doubles, 20+ HR which would be pretty good.

Cheers,
Ante

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Grey!

We’re the YasmanyYesMen!! Woot-woot!

Cheers,
Ante

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: My reasons are purely selfish. I’m down to one of the following keepers and I’m too impatient to wait for the top 500: Schoop, OZUNA, or Tomas. Or even Iglesias if is named Reds closer. Ahhh. So confusing.

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Yeah, I’m seeing that too but my league only has saves so he’s pretty useless if Reds go by committee or, worse, he’s a set-up guy. But Storen kinda sucks, so there is that..

Jason Eldred
Jason Eldred
5 years ago

I’m loving these rankings. In the middle of a 16 team dynasty slow draft. Current squad is Machado, Miggy, deGrom, Dahl. Pick 8. It’s a competitive draft so far, but some players are surprisingly still around that I thought would be gone. Need help with my next pick….Guys I like who might be around in the next 9 include Segura, Cespedes, cmart, abreu, Hosmer, or Franco? Franco kind of intrigues me bc I can slide MM to short. Thanks for the help all. Grey, your Dahl post in the top 20 Of came out right as I went on the clock! Certainly was perfect timing.

Jason Eldred
Jason Eldred
Reply to  Jason Eldred
5 years ago

@Jason Eldred: No funky scoring. We do start 5 SP so maybe pitcher out of necessity? Schoop gets me excited too, but seems early

DisEnFranchised
DisEnFranchised
Reply to  Jason Eldred
5 years ago

@Jason Eldred: It might be too late; but I would go Franco, Cespedes, Abreu, Segura, CMart, Hosmer as my order of preference.

Copperhead Road
Copperhead Road
5 years ago

And as an ode to woman in the Trump era (Pantsuit Nation) and all things good about Fantasy BB rankings (Sweatpants) I am changing my handle to Sweatpants Nation.

Copperhead Road
Copperhead Road
5 years ago

With all the Tomas talk yesterday I thought he’d crack the Top 40. I know, he’s coming… But I did see him as an Adam Duvall type with less dependable power but more dependable avg.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Copperhead Road
5 years ago

@Copperhead Road: That was my fault. I started it.

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
Reply to  Cram It
5 years ago

@Cram It: And then I decided to argue…

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  The Great Knoche
5 years ago

@The Great Knoche: I like to argue. That’s 98% of the reason I post here. Stephen Piscotty will hit 27 HR’s!

Big Odio
Big Odio
Reply to  Cram It
5 years ago

@Cram It: piscrammy knows!

Robert
Robert
Reply to  Cram It
5 years ago

@Cram It: Or have a tragic career ending injury and start his second passion of making cafe-style foreign desserts.

Piscotty’s Biscottis will be in every Starbuck within 2 years.

Clogged Rosterman
Clogged Rosterman
5 years ago

I could never do this. My head would break trying to differentiate Kyle Schwarber from Miguel Sano.

Ryan
Ryan
5 years ago

Yo Grey!

My favorite time of the year is when your rankings come out. Thanks for the time spent. I need some help. 12 team h2h 6×6, keep 6 forever. My picks start late due to me going for it last year. I am worried about pitching. Who should I keep. My sure bets are Bryant, Villar, Yelich, Posey, Freeman.

Stuck between Hamels or Segura.

Chucky
Chucky
Reply to  Ryan
5 years ago

Keep Segura and Hamels, drop Yelich. OF’ers are a dime a dozen

Charles
Charles
5 years ago

Kepler?!? ESPN has him OF82, not in top 300. Talk about a sleeper pick…

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
5 years ago

Grey!

Great post and good conclusion to the top 40 of OF!

a. Some surprises and thanks for the Billy Hamilton barometer – aka 100 to 120 of the top 300! Eaton’s kind of boring, I agree. If you had him for his two-week hot streak (2016) and then dropped him for something better it would have been good but people are attracted to Eaton for his name value and his time in AZ. Maybe he’ll be ok in WAS but my gut says no bueno in the NL East.

b. Chaperoned and escorted to her final destination a colleague on mission from the UN. Her grandfather was a Russian Jew who fled the former Russian Empire just before 1917 with his 10 (!!!) brothers (they had one sister named Anastasia, just kidding!!) to Argentina. Her grandfather then said adios to his 10 (!!!) brothers, crossed the Andes and settled in Chile! She wants to have a family reunion with all of the 10 (!!!) brothers’ families in Argentina!! It could take a life time! What do you think?

Cheers,
Ante

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Grey!

It would be the subject of a gr8 documentary! It’s inescapable with a surname like Kravetz!! Like you’re in the airport ‘attention all brothers Kravetz. Immediate boarding for JFK, we will remove your luggage from the aircraft if you don’t arrive in the next 5 minutes! ‘ ‘Hey, that’s us! We better go!’ Right?

Cheers,
Ante

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Grey!

a. Haha!
b. Haha!
c. Haha!

Nyet to all or yes to all. Have no clue. I just chaperoned and escorted, it didn’t involve doing a family tree!

Cheers,
Ante

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Grey!

Will do, boss!

Btw, just saw the first effects of ‘The Donald Era’.

We had a huge (aka bigly) mission planned for Nine (9) Immigration Agents to come from the US as part of the interview phase of the resettlement process for February / March of this year for Sudanese refugees! Just received word that that (stutterer!) mission has now been canceled. It will be reinstated if and when someone figures out what it means to live in ‘The Donald Era’!

Cheers,
Ante

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
Reply to  Grey
5 years ago

@Grey: Grey!

Obama, like I said earlier, visited Chad when he was a Senator from the great state of Illinois. The Donald has not and could give a rat’s ass for Chad or Chad Lowe even. So that’s it in a nutshell. Donald Drumpf does not care about Chad.

Cheers,
Ante

VinWins
VinWins
5 years ago

“… but that’s just silly for a tier name.”

Now, that’s funny.

mike
mike
Reply to  VinWins
5 years ago

Grey I love your projections and work! I started looking at your work when you spoke highly of Cargo back in the day but I have to question why you don’t have Kevin Kiermaier ranked in top 60?