Josh Rutledge steps forward. A hush falls over the crowd. Delino DeShields stops obnoxiously sucking on his soda straw when he realizes the crowd has silenced. Rutledge continues, “At one time or another, we’ve all been sleepers. Some of us never reached our potential. Others have, but are still forgotten.” Rutledge taps his chest with his fist and motions towards Brad Miller. “While most of us have seen our best days pass us by without making good on being sleepers, one of us still has one year left to be a post-post-post-post-post-post-post-post-post-post-post-hype sleeper.” One man stands from the crowd, but Rutledge quickly gets annoyed, “Not you, Brett Lawrie.” Lawrie shrugs and sits back down. “No, I’m talking about you.” Rutledge points into the crowd, realizing he’s not pointing at the right person, he asks, “Adam Eaton, could you move right or left?” Finally, we see Rutledge is pointing at Leonys Martin. He’s surprised to be singled out. Martin tentatively stands, “Me?” The preceding took place in The Tomb of the Forgotten Sleeper. We’ve been here before with Martin, and this, I promise, will be our last time. A’la Q-Tip, “All you bad sleepers, you must go…” So, what can we expect from Leonys Martin for 2017 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Why he’s a sleeper is easy, no one’s drafting him, at least not in the first 250 players off the board. In Leonys’s word cloud, ‘board’ appears, but it’s spelled ‘bored.’ I get it, he’s not the most exciting upsidey player. He will play thanks to his glove, and I’ll admit that part of this sleeper post is contingent on him hitting 2nd, where he should hit. Only real threat to hit leadoff is Jean Segura, then The Lisper’s Nightmare is in the two hole and that’s thilly. Worst case scenario, Leonys hits 7th and Smith platoons out of the two hole. Not awful, not great, but that is possible. That leaves Leonys with 65-80-ish runs, depending on lineup placement. Last year, Martin learned to hit for some power. He pulled more balls and hit more fly balls. With authority:
Like no joke:
Oops, bye-bye:
Now, he’s not going to hit 30 homers. Though, his homers did average about the same distance as Mookie Betts. No, I didn’t just compare him to Mookie Betts. OR DID I?! No, Reversal Question, I didn’t. But his 15 homers last year does seem repeatable. I also made sure to include two lefties in the GIFs presented to you today by DeWalt ladders. Little gopher pitcher heavy with Wily Peralta and CC, but they still count on the stat line. Of course, fifteen homers makes the Head of Development in the Excitement Department yawn, but it comes with 25 steals easily. He’s really more of a 30+ steal guy. On the Speed Scale, he ranked 14th in the majors for qualified hitters. 15/30 gets my jowls jolly. My biggest concern for him is his Ks went up a tad last year and he might struggle to hit .260. Average is never something that stops me from drafting guys, unless they’re potential .190 hitters. A .240 guy turns into a .265 guy with a little luck and five bloop singles. For 2017, I’ll give Leonys Martin projections of 72/16/61/.251/31 in 560 ABs.
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3 years of Sale for 5 (probably 7 with options) of Polanco and six of Moncada?
Dynasty league real contracts
@ukmets: Polanco side
I am liking Leo Marteen this year. He seems comfortable in Seattle, Mariners will have a better lineup, this year as well.. Leo is 28, this could be as breakout year for him..
I see these kind of numbers for Leo for 2017..85/21/70/.265/38 in 590 ABs.
@Malicious Phenoms: that’s way too optomistic
How did you calculate that?
@Big Odio:
Didn’t really calculate anything. I just upped Grey’s projections a little here and there. If dude gets a few extra bloop singles here and there I can see him getting the SB’s easily. He is hitting with more power. He is at a prime age and I think he will bat 2nd most of the year..He is so due for a breakout. Way to much talent for him to keep putting up mediocre numbers..
@Malicious Phenoms: so you didnt. Got it
@Malicious Phenoms: That’s what I’m talking about!
Great write-up. I’ve been planning on grabbing Martin for $1 (hopefully) in my dynasty auction in a few months too. I think the power surge is real. He started to get with the times and swung for the fences or struck out like everyone else.
@Halp: hey did Ralph talk to you about rejects?
@Big Odio: Yea, he mentioned it. I told him I wasn’t sure because I never co-managed a team before and kinda like just having free rein (also, if I fuck up, its just on me). Also, Ralph has now gotten me in more leagues than I have ever done in my life, ha.
He didn’t tell me much though. What is the league, and how would we co-manage etc … ?
@Halp: I should probably email you the way it works. I would hate for the comments section to know what an unruly dick I am about my megalomaniacal style of GMing.
@Big Odio: hahaha … cool.
@Halp: Least favorite part of co-managing is wearing the same jersey at the same time
@Grey: haha
@Grey: that’s a lot of jersey!
And do you need to squeeze into the same pants too? This sounds like a nightmare!
@Grey: the pants aren’t that bad but the socks are a nightmare
And the shoes!
@Grey: shoes aren’t even on the table. Someone always wants flats and the other wants heels.
Ha, just a boogie board with a strap over both feet
Oh so now we’re in the Japanese leagues?
@Halp: Thanks! You were always my favorite part of Halph
@Grey: haha … we’ll keep that just between us
@Grey: Ralph Halp!
It’s Halph!
@Grey: Welp, I just stopped writing my painful Royals preview.
We’re done Halp, Daddy likes you more.
@Ralph Lifshitz: haha … Grey’s diabolical plan finally came to fruition.
My overt love for Halp is supposed to push you to try harder, not quit
@Grey: you really need to work on your motivational approach
Not enough discouragement?
@Grey: ralph needs specific criticism with just a touch of pat on the head for something he does well. Basically its a 90% beating/10% praise approach.
Good info! I was going too hard!
@Grey: Think of it like this, ” you are the worst prospect writer since Crappy McCrapperstein published his ass whipings for the 1985 season..but hey, before you go, I want you to know how much I appreciate you turning in your work on time”
You should be in HR!
If I ran your HR, I’d have to fire almost everyone here on principal alone. You Ralph and JB would stay, the rest would be sent back to the unemployment line.
You’d prolly unintentionally fire yourself
Probably not. I could cover more posts “CORRECTLY” at the same price as these other schlubs. Every workforce needs a jack of all trades
@Big Odio: Peanut buttery snacks work too.
@Ralph Lifshitz: scoob? Is that you?
@Grey: I can’t push it any harder Captain, I don’t have the power!
Haha
The triple giffy? Pretty fancy there Albright!
@Big Odio: Call me Can GIFfy Jr!
@Grey: hey weren’t you in that angelica huston movie the GIFters?
I was married to Kathie Lee GIFford
@Grey: when you went to magic school did you stay in GIFindor?
Haha… my favorite player was Alfredo GIFfin
@Grey: do you take your dates to the lazarium at the GIFith Park Observatory?
Hahaha… I’m GIFted and Talented
@Grey: oh yeah, you’re the Peter GIFin of fantasy
They say ‘Do it for the GIFfer”
Grey!
Great write-up with no less than 3 GIFs!!! Good stuff with him hitting 2 LHP!
a. Am sold on the post-#250 bit. He could be awesome in a 12-team ESPN RCL.
b. More SNAFU but at least there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. Have been informed officially that my boss will be back to work from January 2 2017! Yay!
Cheers,
Ante
@Ante GALIC: I pulled out the GIFs! They are fun, aren’t they? A. Nice! B. There’s still time for him to be kidnapped by rebels
@Grey: Grey!
a. Lol on the rebels.
b. Is Africa still called the Dark Continent? Is that like racist at all. ‘Cause if you check in google earth right now, the vast majority of it will be totally dark. That’s because there is no electricity in 90% of rural Africa.
c. Was reading the Che Guevara biography by Antonio Castaneda (La vida en roja). Basically, Che tried to transport the idea of the Cuban revolution to the Congo. But he failed for three important reasons.
1. The villages in the Congo were all strewn along the road but there was no connection. One had to travel a great distance – more than 2 days by foot – to get to the nearest village. Thus calling a meeting for Friday at 16h00 was a bit tricky.
2. The Congolese that Che Guevara trained were – always drunk, would always go into a village and rape all the women and then destroy everything in the village (usually setting fire to a straw hut was sufficient to set the whole village on fire) and were not very accurate in shooting. Remember this was in 1960…Same thing happened in 1997 when Laurent Desire Kabila came into power (with his rebel group) and if another all- out war broke out it would be the MO used today.
3. In general most people in rural parts of Congo (i.e., like 85%) were afraid of doing anything against their colonial masters.
So yeah, Frank Voila, he failed.
d. Btw, now that Fidel is dead, how much do you buy into the conspiracy theory that Fidel had Che Guevara murdered? It was definitely an inside job because very few people knew of his whereabouts in Bolivia the second time he returned. Sure he was an enemy of Dole banana, but in the book, Fidel was furious when Che Guevara got back from his trip to China. At that time, Russia and China were not as buddy-buddy communist as they are today. Then it was Russia or the Soviet Union as top dog communist and China as like a real dog. Che Guevara went any way to Peking thinking he could meet with the Supreme Leader just by announcing that he was Che Guevara wearing his beret, smoking a real Cuban cigar and wearing his brand new Che Guevara T-shirt. Didn’t pan out that way and he was really pooh-poohed by the Chinese authorities and Fidel on the tarmac when he got back.
Cheers,
Ante
No, no, no Che didn’t have peanut butter!
@Grey: Grey!!
a. The Cubans were so bent on transporting the Cuban revolution to the Congo that they actually transported short people (aka the Cuban vertically-challenged) so that they would blend in with the Congolese who were also similarly short!!! In a word, fail!
b. Too bad they didn’t think of tranporting cheaper bananas from Cuba to the Congo! Wouldn’t be paying so darn much in Chad 56 years later!!
Cheers,
Ante
The Congo also still has yet to medal in the Olympics for basketball, you ruined them Cuba!
@Grey: Grey!
Lol, finished and sent my report btw! It was appreciated.
Cheers,
Ante
Ha, nice!
Interesting pick here. I think these results depend on how Seattle gels as a team. They were not the most… together team last year. Martin has the talent and the key, as you said, is playing time. I could see similar projections for guys like Michael Taylor, Charlie Tilson, Mitch Haniger (a bit more power, but also a new Mariner) or Aaron Altherr if they were to get the same opportunity and position in the batting order.
Is there much beyond an everyday job that separates these guys? Did Martin make a huge swing adjustment this past year?
Taylor strikes once every three times, Tilson is strictly speed, Haniger is a platoon guy
Brett Lawrie 4 Life! 25/25 year coming!
This is the year!
@Dr. Kenneth Noisewater: they need to make the Lawrie shoes. It looks all nice has lots of ornate designs but falls apart after the third time you wear it.
@Big Odio: Oh I thought you meant it would be made of goggles and inflamed hamstrings.
@Dr. Kenneth Noisewater: that won’t sell. It needs to look weird and hot but the fail like clockwork
Leonys: the ideal $1-$0 OF5 in a 12 team mixed league?
Oh yeah!
Hi Grey! My fantasy football season is finally, mercifully, over. God, I hate playing it. I can now continue with the regular scheduled baseball programming and get back to trying to claim that $75 from Scout! Haha.
You still haven’t been paid?! Are you serious?
@Grey: Nope! I was emailing with Scott Atkins. First he said it would be paypalled. Then he said their paypal was broken. So he said he’ll mail a check. When i said I never got it, he said let me check with accounting and he hasn’t responded to any inquiry since. I just emailed the general Scout help yesterday. Maybe he died?
Ugh, when I get home I’ll email them with you CC’d
Hey could you forward me your last correspondence so I can include it?
Grey –
Since the end of the season I promised myself that if you did a 2017 sleeper post for Keon Broxton, I was going to say in a half serious / half dreaming way that we could simply take his production from last season’s 207 ABs and triple them. But I missed my chance, which is why you’re there and I’m here.
(and I did see your take on Broxton — good stuff!)
Trade question –
I send Odor, Ozuna, Grichuk for one Clayton Kershaw … am I giving up too much? It’s a 16 team dynasty league and I already have Cano at 2B, and my other outfielders are J.D. Mart, Duvall, Saunders, Kiermaier, Broxton, Roman Quinn.
Thanks !
Haha, nice… I’d want Odor
I didn’t realize that the dude has a really NICE swing!
I know!
Trade Arenado for Rizzo and Matz in a dynasty?
Sounds fair, I’d take Rizzo side
He is definitely in the better in fantasy than reality but hell yea I am with on Leonys.
Hey dude, I was offered Flores and Paxton for Colome in dynasty.
Need SP, have 3 other closers.
15-team dynasty where we keep 30 mlb/30 milb year to year if that matters
You want Paxton side?
Thanks for your time
Paxton side
grizzle. here’s the first obnoxiously long post of the beisbol season that’s still months away!
12 team roto keeper (2 c’s, MI/CI/5TH OF, 3 SP/2 RP/3 P/7 BN/1 NA). normally, players can be kept the round drafted for up to 4 years. Undrafted FAs can be kept once in the 25th and once the year after, in the 10th. we are switching to auction this year (thank god), with a $260 budget.
The commish used preranks (or something) to convert round value to $ value this first time through.
Unless otherwise noted, players can be kept for 4 years at this value. I can keep 8 players, with a max of 4 undrafted free agents (listed below). These undrafted FA guys can be kept for a max of 2 years ($1 value this year, and $11 next year).
Which 8 are you feeling? already removed catchers and some others. Thanks man
$36 Donaldson
$27 Tulowitzki
$23 Braun
$20 Hamels (2 years)
$18 Darvish
$17 N. Cruz (2 years)
$15 Belt
$14 Segura
$11 Familia (1 year)
$10 Andrew Miller
$10 Giolito
$9 Schoop
$5 Berrios
$5 Billy Hamilton (1 year)
$5 T. Walker (3 years)
$3 Gallo (3 years)
$2 Nola
$2 Cain (2 years)
$1 Velasquez
$1 Chris Carter
$1 Tim Anderson
Undrafted FAs — ($1 value this year, and $11 next year):
$1 Renfroe
$1 David Dahl
$1 Aaron Altherr
$1 Sam Dyson
$1 Tanner Roark
$1 Junior Guerra
Braun, Yu, Segura, Hamilton, Dahl, Roark, Renfroe, Dyson
@Grey: Thanks. hmmmmmmmmm. There will be some first time auctioners in here, and I play with some of the others and money gets thrown around; I don’t expect it to be too disciplined. Kind of why I think hanging onto Donaldson might be a good idea. I feel like I might be able to make up the value elsewhere (with the help of your rankings).
Though he’s likely to fall of a cliff and unsexy, I don’t think nelson cruz is a terrible idea either, and I do like the idea of keeping Andrew Miller just because he’s a G.
Also, is Schoop close for you? Your love for him prompted my pick last year. You think he takes a step forward?
Lastly, how close do you have Dahl and Renfroe?
Thanks Grey
Grey, I think the offer of me giving up Kolby Allard and Edwin Diaz for Britton is still on the table. If it is, did you say cmake the deal if I rememeber correctly? Also what are the projections for Diaz and Britton for 2017?
I’d take Britton
Grey ok im making the deal. what are the projection s you have for britton and Diaz
Projections will be out in a month or two
Whoa, Jett Bandy (Bam-ba-lam)
Whoa, Jett Bandy (Bam-ba-lam)
Jett Bandy had a child (Bam-ba-Lam)
The damn thing gone wild (Bam-ba-Lam)
He said, “I’m worryin’ outta mind” (Bam-ba-Lam)
The damn thing gone blind (Bam-ba-Lam)
I said “Oh, Jett Bandy” (Bam-ba-Lam)
Whoa, Jett Bandy (Bam-ba-Lam)
Haha… Awesome… Great song too… One of those songs I can listen to repeatedly for an hour
Trade Syndergaard, Familia, 2nd rd pick in minors draft for Trea Turner…..dynasty 12 teamer?
Works for me
Grey,
Where would you put Lester in overall ranks roughly? 50ish?
Thanks
Sounds about right
@Grey: Appreciate it. Thanks for being the very best at what you do!
No problem!
Where would you say Salazar ranks among SPs? Top 10? 20? 30? A friend and I have a bet going….
15-20
Grey,
Would you trade either Donaldson or Machado to acquire McCutchen. If so, which one would you move?
Hold
Grey,
I know you’re lukewarm towards Freeman but…
What are your thoughts on Freeman and Marte for Villar and JD? Which side do you prefer in an OBP format? 8 teams and we keep 8.
Thanks
I’d take Freeman side
Hey Grey,
It’s cold up here in Canada eh!
Got offered Trumbo and Taijuan for Greinke
15 team Keep 11: possible sp keepers are Harvey, Matz, Greinke, Gausman
Also would keep Rizzo, Dozier, Correa, Dahl, Crush, Mazara, Wade Davis, maybe Brinson
Would you do it? Thinking Walker and Greinke not much different these days….
I’m headed to Miami, buster! Trumbo side, it’s not close
Roto OBP keeper league. Which side do you like better?
Rizzo, Archer, Kipnis
OR
Abreu, Moncada, Gordon, Darvish
Rizzo
16 team 7 keeper, who are you keeping out of the guys below? Thanks
C/OF WContreras
2B/3B/SS JBaez
(2B)/3B/SS JVillar (will likely gain 2B early in ’17)
3B Arenado & 3B Donaldson
OF BHarper, OF GSpringer, OF JDMartinez, OF ABenintendi
SP CKershaw, SP JUrias, SP CKluber
Harper, Donaldson, Arenado, Springer, Kershaw, Villar, JD